Monday, June 3, 2019

NDX Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart; H&S; Nazzy 100 Collapses Into -11.1% Correction


The FAANG stocks face antitrust lawsuits and are beaten mercilessly today. FB is bludgeoned -7.5%. CEO Zuckerberg crawls under the desk but a big lump is in his way, oops, that is Sheryl Sandberg already hiding under the desk. Both hold each other while trembling. AAPL drops -1%. Traders that worship at the Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger altar bot Apple with both fists at the euphoric high at 215 and AAPL stock is now down -19.5% off the top in only 22 trading days. In fact, at the 170.27 LOD today, AAPL was down -20.8% off the top in a bear market. If you took $10K of your hard-earned money and bot AAPL on the Berkshire recommendation in late April, you now have $8K; you can thank the Oracle of Omaha.

AMZN pukes -4.6%. CEO Bezos wipes a tear from his eye with a gold-monogrammed handkerchief worth more than the common American's car. NFLX drops -2% to lows not seen since January/February. The movies and shows are boring, the popcorn is cold and the candy bars are stale. GOOGL is taken to the shed out back behind the garage and beaten -6.1%. That's gonna leave a mark. Alphabet (Google) and Facebook perform the worst faceplants of the five FAANG stocks. XLK loses -1.8%. SOX +0.3%. XSD +1.4%. SMH -0.1%. XLC -3.1%. Chips held up.

Since the tech giants were in collapse, the Nasdaq 100 Index was flushed lower. The NDX is now in a correction (down more than -10% off the top). There were four high prints in seven days when it topped out in late April and early May; 7851.97, 7851.85, 7851.03 and 7847.52. Thus, if 7852 is the high, a -10% correction is 7067 and lower which occurs today. At the closing price at 6978, the NDX is down -11.1% off the top and at the LOD today at 6937, the Nasdaq 100 is down -11.7% off the top only about -8% away from a bear market (-20% off the top).

The gold circle shows the golden cross and why these patterns receive a bad rap. Early April, the golden cross says all systems go but then in early May it was all over but the crying. The red lines show the negative divergence top that was an easy call so once you saw that it always overrides the golden or death cross stuff. The orange circles show some juicy gaps that will need filled at some point forward and the one was filled today.

The slope of the 150-day MA went negative in Q4 ushering in a cyclical bear market for the Nasdaq 100 but you can see from mid-January to mid May the 150-day MA squeezes out tiny upside gains which are a cyclical bull market signal. Alas, over the last couple weeks or so you can see the slope of the 150-day MA sloping negatively once again ushering in a cyclical bear market for the high-flying tech stocks.

The falling wedge is a bullish pattern. The RSI and stochastics are oversold agreeable to bounces occurring in this daily time frame going forward. The histogram, stoch's and money flow are all possie d (green lines) wanting price to bounce but the RSI and MACD line are weak and bleak (red lines) wanting to see lower lows in price after any bounce occurs. Thus, one jog move, up-down, for the RSI to set up with possie d and one jog move, up-down for another lower low, for the MACD line to go possie d, would place the bottom in this time frame; say 2 to 5 days out which would be Thursday through Tuesday, 6/11/19.

The lower band is violated so the middle band at 7412, and dropping is on the table. The H&S pattern is playing out with head at 7852 and neckline at 7290, so that is a difference of 562, so the lower target for the H&S is 6728 if the 7290 neck fails, and it did. Price has not yet back kissed the neck at 7290 so that remains in play. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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