Wednesday, November 14, 2018

SPX S&P 500 Weekly Chart

Here is a look at the S&P 500 weekly chart. Remember Keystone calling out the top with the negative divergence back in September? Price receives the neggie d spankdown falling from the upper standard deviation band to the lower band. That placed a move to the middle band at 2820 on the table, at a minimum, and price came up last week to almost touch this level (look at the long shadow of last week's candlestick almost touching the middle band which is also the 20 MA).

Thus, the middle band at 2820 remains on the table. At the same time, respect has to still be given to the lower band at 2677 in the vicinity of those lows from 3 and 4 weeks ago.

When price made the matching and lower low three weeks ago, the RSI, stochastics and money flow show positive divergence (green lines) which created the price bounce. The MACD line and histogram, however, remain weak and bleak (red lines) and would prefer to see another low in price after this bounce in this weekly time frame.

The stochastics never really got oversold nor the RSI so that may still happen which would occur with lower prices. This week, the SPX failure at the 12-month MA at 2749 is the key negative development. The 12-month MA failure ushers in a cyclical bear market for the weeks, months perhaps years ahead. Bulls must regain 2749 or they are hopelessly in trouble for a long time to come.

The moving averages continue playing a key role in the price action;
50-day MA = 2822
20-week MA = 2820
100-day MA = 2820
150-day MA = 2785
200 EMA on the 60-minute chart = 2771
200-day MA = 2762
50-week MA = 2756
10-month MA = 2749
12-month MA = 2749; demarcation between a cyclical bull and bear
20-day MA = 2735
SPX begins Wednesday, 11/14/18, at 2722
20-month MA = 2645
100-week MA = 2591

The 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 2771 tells you the short-term market direction which is down with price below 2771. The failure of the 2749-2762 support gauntlet, that is now a resistance guantlet, is a big deal. The 12-month MA failure is gravely negative for the stock market going forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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