TNX 10-Year Treasury Yield Weekly Chart

The 10-year yield is staggering sideways through 2.3%-2.5% for the last couple months. Yield is dipping lower, however, the indicator are mixed as the yield topped out one month ago. From a longer perspective, the chart is moving into a sideways symmetrical triangle pattern (much easier to see on the monthly chart). Note the moving averages above moving sideways which hints that yield will continue sideways.

It will not be surprising to see yield move higher to the top trend lines at 2.4%-2.5% over the coming couple weeks but the longer term expectation is for continued sideways movement squeezing into the 1.9%-2.4% for a couple months, then into a tighter 2.0%-2.3% range in the Fall. Of course a breakout above the upper blue trend lines would be a game changer. Treasury bulls need to keep prices high and yield under 2.50% while Treasury bears need to see yield jump above 2.50% to signal the long-awaited move higher for rates. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.