SPX 30-Minute Chart 8/34 MA Cross Sideways Channel

The SPX is staggering sideways like a drunk in Times Square on Saturday night. Key S/R is 2011, 2007, 2005, 2002-2003, 1998, 1995, 1990-1991 and 1988 (brown lines). Reference the SPX S/R missive posted on the weekend by scrolling back or typing "SPX S/R" in the search box at the right for further study with support and resistance levels. Note how price recovered late day and stopped at the 2002-2003 resistance ceiling. A move above 2003 opens the door to 2005. The bears will push for a test of 1998 and try to break through to send price to 1995.

The blue sideways channel through 1995-2005 is in play. Bulls win above 2005. Bears win below 1995. The indicators are not tipping their hand traveling trendless and sideways. The histogram hints that another price high is on tap but the stochastics indicate that a lower low in price is also desired. Thus, flip a coin. The movement through the S/R highlighted above as well as the 8/34 cross will dictate the path forward.

The 8 MA is under the 34 MA signaling bearish markets for the hours ahead, however, price is above the 8 MA at 1999.82 which will curl the 8 MA higher and set up a potential bullish 8/34 cross. For now, the bears are driving the bus. In the last seven days, the SPX has moved a huge 136 points of distance, 7% of its overall value. So intraday, the SPX is moving through 1% of its value. And these wild whipsaw swings are occurring with volatility in the 12's; remarkable. Just think when vol returns to 20 and higher. In the days and weeks ahead, daily moves of 20 to 50 SPX handles may become commonplace.

Keystone's algo, Keybot the Quant, is short with copper and volatility the two main market drivers currently. JJC is 38.67 exactly on top of the 38.67 bull-bear line identified by the quant and copper leaked lower overnight now down -0.7%. For today, as copper goes, so goes the markets. Weak copper will keep the bears in the driver's seat. Watch VIX 12.34. Markets will continue leaking lower as long as the VIX stays above 12.34. Bulls will retake control with either JJC above 38.67 or VIX below 12.34, either would do, and if either one turns bullish, and the SPX moves above 2007 and higher, Keybot will likely flip long. The AAPL new product release circus begins at 1 PM EST (6 PM London time). This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 11:27 AM:  The bears push with VIX above 13 and copper tanking. The SPX loses 1995-1996 support then bounces off of the strong 1990-1991 support, now back kissing the 1995-1996 for a bounce or die decision. Bears smile broadly seeing copper collapse. The AAPL circus can change the entire market mood, now only 1-1/2 hour away at 1 PM EST. TRIN is 0.89 favoring bulls despite the down markets. This hints that the bulls are given the benefit of the doubt with the Apple show on tap. Bears need the TRIN above 1.0 to prove the downside is the way forward. Watch the S/R levels listed above. The 8 MA remains under the 34 MA and the 8 MA trials lower favoring the bears. The 8 MA is 1997 so the bears need to keep the SPX under 1997. Bulls will fight back if they break up through the 1995-1996 resistance and move above 1997 and higher. The SPX is at 1996.29.

Note Added 6:51 PM: The bears ride copper weakness to victory. The VIX remains elevated near 13. The SPX falls through the 1995-1996 and 1990-1991 support levels and was snagged by the 1988 support where price sits to think things over. The 1990-1991 is such important and strong resistance (it was support until today) that a back kiss would be needed to show it respect. The support levels below are 1988, 1985-1986, 1982, 1980, 1978, 1976 and 1973. If 1985-1986 fails the bulls are in trouble since price will target the strong 1973 next with the intermediate support levels providing areas for give and take on the way lower. The SPX bounced off the 20-day MA at 1985.39. LOD 1984.61. So note that intraday today, price failed at the 1988 but the strong 1985-1986 support held price in check. Will 1985-1986 hold tomorrow? Another critical bull-bear signal to watch is Keystone's 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute chart now at 1981.10 favoring bulls for the hours and days ahead (price is 1988 above 1981). Markets are in big trouble if 1981 fails. Marry this level with the support numbers and the 1980-1982 level takes on a stronger role as support. If the 200 EMA fails at 1981, it is likely that price will venture down to 1973. Keybot the Quant remains short. Watch VIX 12.34 and XLF 22.92. Bulls need VIX under 12.34 to stop the bleeding. Bears need XLF under 22.92 which would create market carnage. So keep your ears open for any bank news. The 8 MA remains under the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart signaling bearish markets for the hours ahead.