Wednesday, April 3, 2013

SILVER Silver Weekly and Daily Charts Downward-Sloping Channel Falling Wedge Descending Triangle Silver Bear Market



Silver is teetering on the critical 26.50-27.00 support area. The daily chart shows the downward-sloping channel in play. Price remains inside the channel with price under the 20-day MA which is under the 50-day MA also under the 200-day MA, a negative ribbon profile, bearish. The neon green lines on the daily chart show that the indicators are set up with positive divergence except for the RSI which is leaking lower and likely wants to see some further weakness in price.  The green circle will tell the tale. Either things set up for a positive divergence pop, or price collapses through the 26.50-27.00 support. So once price comes down, see if the possie d is in place, and it should creating a bounce but sideways action is most likely moving forward. The pink falling wedge (a bullish bounce pattern) is in play. So price may bounce to the top pink rail, then fall back down again to give the RSI a chance to set up and then price can recover bouncing more strongly up and out of the pink falling wedge.

Credit Suisse just downgraded gold, silver and copper so this ushers in weakness today. The silver weekly chart shows a two descending triangle patterns. Due to the parabolic run in early 2011, downside targets are hard to calculate for the descending triangle but prices in the teen's would be likely if the 26-27 price level fails.  The neon green C&H pattern forecasted a move to 31-32, which occurred, then the parabolic move to 50 followed. But all good things come to an end and the top from 50 to 27 now is a drop of 26%, so silver is in a bear market now (when a stock or index drops 20% or more off its highs).

The RSI is tracking lower and under the 50% level, bearish.  The money flow and histogram are more agreeable to sideways action with silver moving forward. The indicators over the last month on the weekly chart are a mixed bag with money flow and MACD agreeable to a bounce but RSI and the MACD line wanting to see a lower low after a bounce occurs.  Silver is a tough call since it is sitting on the do or die 26-27 level. The RSI is not in oversold territory on the weekly chart so this hints at more bearishness ahead. Best to wait a few days to see how the drama plays out.  Current projection is a move through 23-29 into summer time. SLV and other silver ETF's follow along with the same analysis. Watch the silver 200-week MA at 27.04 and SLV 20-week MA at 26.35. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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