WTIC (West Texas Intermediate) Crude Oil Weekly and Daily Charts Sideways Symmetrical Triangles
Three weeks ago we watched the weekly to see if the upper rail of the sideways triangle would hold, and it did, with price dropping back inside the triangle. The yellow and red sideways triangles are in play, both point towards a 20 to 35 handle move which would have a phenomenal impact on markets. If the bulls win with a breakout above 95 that targets 115-125. This move would be in concert with a healthy global recovery in progress and China booming. China PMI last evening was much weaker than expected. Copper is collapsing 2% this morning. Crude is printing 91.10 as this missive is typed. If the bears win with a failure through 88, then 45-60 would be targeted. This represents a planet mired in disinflation and deflation with very weak growth and a structural employment problem causing lasting problems. The indicators are sideways not tipping their hands. Watch the Kabuki Theatre with price, the 20-day MA and 50-day MA. This positioning will show the preference on direction. Crude is now only about 20 cents away from testing the 20-day as support which should occur today. Watch to see if price bounces, or dies, at 90.87.
The daily chart shows the white inverted H&S targeting 94 which occurred on the way up, then the red rising wedge and negative divergence created the spank down. The purple H&S we were watching last week, remember the 95.50 neck line that was important for several days, then crude collapsed through? Head at 98, neck at 95.50, is target of 92, achieved. Keystone's 80/20 rule says 2's lead to 8's, so 92 would hint that 88 is on the way. The indicators, however, are positively diverged now (except for the MACD line), so price should recover into early next week. A lower low will be needed after a bounce to satisfy the MACD. Overall, looks like some sideways ahead and that would be in keeping with the weekly chart. Projection is a move through the thin brown lines sideways channel at 90-94 with crude moving down to 88 to test the bottom rail of the triangles in the weeks ahead. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Shocking to see we're almost to the 200MA on the WTIC daily chart. That might be a good place for the bounce. But copper is tumbling to 3.47, pointing to your target of 2.53. Amazing to have such clear signs of deflation and yet markets have been hovering near highs. Won't last.
ReplyDeleteThat's good to point out, so the 200-day MA adds more credence to the 90.0-90.4 support area. Any time a multiple amount of indicators point to the same level, that forms a confluence of indicators, and creates further credibility that price will have to go there to test the confluence.
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