SPX Support, Resistance (S/R) and Moving Averages for Trading the Week of 3/4/13

SPX support, resistance, moving averages and other important levels are highlighted below. Last week was dramatic with the SPX bouncing through a 40-handle range. The point swings are becoming more intense as the VIX moves higher. The SPX price is in the middle of a very strong S/R gauntlet at 1514-1520--the move either up and out, or collapse under, from this range is very important and telling. The SPX high last week was 1525.84 so pay close attention to that number this week. If 1525.84 gives way, the SPX is surely headed for 1550. On the lower side, the intraday spike low last week dropped to the strong 1485 support and bounced directly off of this support level. That price behavior illustrates why watching the S/R is important. The 50-day MA is 1483.80 in the same neighborhood as the lows last week so pay attention to the 1484-1485 support level. The 20-day MA is 1512.61 and will likely see additional action this week. Monitor all the 20-day MA's for the major indexes which will provide hints on overall market direction.  Bears obviously need price under the 20-day MA asap, and bulls need to keep price above.

The Friday intraday low bounced directly off the 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart at 1502.49 (it was about 1501.50 when the test occurred), again, these levels are key and provide insight into the markets. The bounce up off the 200 EMA says the bulls are in charge of these markets.  For Monday, starting at 1518, the bulls only need to see a couple points in the overnight S&P futures and the upside will accelerate to test last week's high at 1525.84. Above there and the bulls will run far higher.  The bears must stop 1520 with all their might. At the same time, the bears will try to push the SPX down to the 200 EMA at 1502 again, if so, the downside will accelerate and a test of the 1484-1485 support discussed above would be on tap in the days ahead. A move through 1503-1517 is sideways action. All Monday's have been down days this year thus far. Does that trend continue?  The bears need it. If the bulls run higher out of the gate to start the week (as long as it is not a gap-up), a new Dow all-time high is likely coming as well as SPX 1550. Monday and Tuesday will be critical market days.

·         1576 (10/11/07 All-Time Intraday High: 1576.09)

·         1565 (10/9/07 All-Time Closing High: 1565.15)

·         1556

·         1553 (10/31/07 Top: 1552.76)

·         1548

·         1540

·         1531 (2/19/13 Intraday HOD for 2013: 1530.94) (2/19/13 Closing High for 2013: 1530.94)

·         1528

·         1525 (Previous Week’s High: 1525.84)

·         1524 (12/11/07 Top: 1523.57)

·         1521

·         1520

·         1519.99 Friday HOD

·         1518.20 Friday Close – Monday Starts Here

·         1518

·         1516

·         1514

·          1512.61 (20-day MA)

·         1511.44 (10-day MA)

·         1511

·         1509

·         1505

·         1503

·         1502.49 (200 EMA on 60-Minute Chart a Keystone Turn Signal)

·         1501.48 Friday LOD

·         1500

·         1498 (12/26/07 Top: 1498.85)

·         1495

·         1489

·         1485 (Previous Week’s Low:  1485.01)

·         1483.80 (50-day MA)

·         1481

·         1476

·         1475 (9/14/12 Intraday HOD for 2012: 1474.51)

·         1472

·         1468

·         1466 (9/14/12 Closing High for 2012: 1465.77)

·         1465

·         1461

·         1460

·         1457

·         1456

·         1453

·         1450.04 (20-week MA)

·         1449.24 (100-day MA)

·         1447

·         1446

·         1444

·         1441

·         1440 (5/19/08 Intraday HOD for 2008: 1440.24)

·         1438.79 (150-day MA; the Slope is a Keystone Cyclical Signal)

·         1438 (9/13/12 Fed Announces QE3 Infinity)

·         1437.43 (10-month MA)

·         1435

·         1433

·         1431

·         1430 (12/12/12 Fed Announces QE4 Infinity and Beyond)

·         1429 (11/6/12 President Obama Election Top)

·         1427 (5/19/08 Closing High for 2008: 1426.63)

·         1424

·         1423.54 (12-month MA; a Keystone Cyclical Signal) (the cliff)

·         1422

·         1419

·         1416

·         1414

·         1413

·         1412.29 (200-day MA)

·         1410.45 (50-week MA)

·         1409

·         1406 (5/29/08 HOD: 1406.32)

·         1404

·         1403 (9/6/12 ECB Announces OMT Bond-Buying Program)

·         1402

·         1399

·         1397

·         1394

·         1391

·         1388