March comes in like a lion here in scenic Pennsylvania, cold and snowy, so it will surely go out like a lamb with tee shirt weather on tap in four weeks. Since the markets are coming in like a bear, will they go out like a bull? The sequestration hits with 85 billion in cuts on tap and a 0.7% hit to GDP over the remainder of the year. The political clowns are meeting at the Whitehouse right now. The law makers went home so this is simply a photo-op playing the American people for suckers as usual. The day begins negatively as the futures projected. Volatility jumps higher and is remaining elevated, so far. The VIX is at 15.97, above the critical 15.65 bull-bear level, so the markets are weak. The financials, XLF, remains elevated above 17.23 so the bulls do not appear too concerned about today's weakness, thus far.
The euro is dropping like a stone today to 1.2985 losing the 1.30 level. The dollar is over 82. Higher dollar = lower euro = lower oil, copper and commodities = lower equity markets. The SPX bounced off the 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart at 1501. The 8 MA curled over to the downside and is heading for the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart. As long as the SPX stays under 1517, the broad market weakness should continue. WTIC crude oil is making its way lower to test the lower support and 200-day MA at 90.0-90.4. Dr. Copper is lower again today and if the doctor is sick, everyone is. Watch the copper sideways symmetrical triangle chart posted yesterday. Commodities weaker as well. The economic data today was a mixed bag, something for everyone. Overall, the improved sentiment and ISM provided market lift offsetting the poor data in Europe today and China last evening.
Trannies continue to try and attain a higher high at $TRAN 6020, fighting yesterday but unable to close higher as the Dow punches out new higher highs. The COMPQ and RUT are under their 20-day MA's but the SPX and INDU remain above their 20-day MA's (tech and small caps remain weak as compared to the broad indexes which is a bearish signal). Watch the SPX 20-day MA at 1512.44. Markets may be stabilizing hoping that the politicians come out of the Whitehouse singing and dancing proclaiming prosperity for all.
Note Added 3/1/13 at 10:50 AM: VIX is 15.51 back below the bull-bear line at 15.65 which creates the broad market lift. VIX 15.65 will tell the tale today. The bulls and bears fight at SPX 1517. TRIN is 0.93 bull-friendly, falling from the spike high at 2 at the opening bell down to the sub 1.00 numbers.
Note Added 3/1/13 at 11:27 AM: Speaker Boehner walks out of the Whitehouse by himself, never a good sign. A happy sign would be all the clowns walking out together. Boehner says that the increased revenue was already addressed during the fiscal cliff and now it is time to perform the spending cuts, which is fair and in the spirit of compromise. President Obama and the democrats, however, want more revenue which means higher taxes. The president is set to speak shortly. Boehner's comments whacked the wind out of the bullish sails, the SPX dropping from over 1518 to 1515. Let's see how the president affects the markets in the time ahead. VIX is creeping back up to 15.59, 15.62..... High drama. TRIN is 1.07 back on the bear side.
How important are the daily EMAs? I noticed that the 50 day, 100 day, and 200 day are all around the same value. Would the confluence of these MAs provide any S/R (as I write this, the S&P just flew right by all of them) or are you only concerned with the 60-minute? On this note, I use Yahoo Finance since it auto-updates but it doesn't have the 60-minute. Would you recommend a different auto-update site? Thanks as always. On another note, if you could ask to S&P to start moving down, I'd appreciate it.
ReplyDeleteBen, you should use the charts on your trading platform since they should have the minute charts available for you, if not, a subscription to Stocharts.com can provide the minute and hourly and monthly charts. The typical MA's that are key are the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, 150-day, 200-day on the daily chart, 20-week and 50-week MA on the weekly, the 10-mth and 12-mth on the monthly chart. Then the 200 EMA is important for the SPX 1-hour chart. But these are only common and important MA's, an important MA is any MA, it can be 8, or 27, or 43, whatever, that shows multiple price touches. So bring up a chart of one of your current plays and pick an MA number that ends up touching the most prices, use candlesticks on the charts, and that MA is the most important for that ticker. If trading regularly, you have to have better charts to watch than YHOO Finance.
DeleteThank you again. This, and everything else you do on this site, is extremely helpful.
Deletefreestockcharts.com. Best free website you can find!
DeleteThanks Arnie. You were missed while on vaca. Welcome back.
Deletei guess that IHS is already working with a right shoulder already created ...
ReplyDeletebut watch out! don't get too greedy!!!
in april (in the second part of april) at maximum 1570-1590 get the h*ll out of the markets cause something really bad (~ -250/-300 points) will happen.
... so , guess we have in front of our eyes a + 50-70 points
Take great care!
V.
Yep, it is interesting. The 1525 neck line is the magic number for bulls. Bears must prevent 1525 with all their might.
Delete"Obama: Jobs will be lost due to sequester"
Deletethat means higher unemployment
that means a stonger guarantee of more FED QE ...
Free crack for the people :)
I know I'm a bastard cause I'm thinking like that but I have to think like markets do.
Personally I don't like that. But , what can I do?
V.
more hints:
Delete:) ....
at usd/jpy 97.25-98.75 get out from markets in cash if not , maybe, on shorts.
V.
Keystone,
ReplyDeleteThanks very much for you sites. Your expertise is terrific.
I suppose it is the vibrating adds: stock market cycles or others, but opening this site in Chrome consumes 25% of processing power on a quad core Q9550. That is much higher than other sites I visit. I actually appreciate the book selection on the adds that you select. I hope the adds help to cover some of your costs. Perhaps there is a bug or such in some of the content that is causing the high processor load?
Thanks again for all you provide,
rich-slc
Its not the site. I am at 3%. The quad core is irrelevant most folks dont need it as software has yet to catch up.
DeleteI have an i5 running W7 on explorer no issues.
I tried on my other i7 computer with explorer and it takes an insignificant processor load. I do not know what the big difference is. I have Win 8 on both. On the Q9550 the adds below "stock market cycles are all vibrating. On the i7 they are all steady. Well it is a mystery, but no doubt something causes big processor load on the Q9550 computer. Obviously it is an issue on my end.
DeleteThe site has a huge amount of charts that may require the extra load. Keystone runs the sites in four different browsers and they all run fine. GOOG, however, only allows editing thru Chrome. They wrote some extremely poor software, or, probably more correctly, they made it so the other browsers would not function properly and then you are forced to use Chrome.
DeleteDear KS... does Quant turn bullish over 1525? Thx.
ReplyDeleteThat was for Friday which did not occur, for Monday, it looks like if VIX stays under 15.65 and SPX moves over 1520 then yes, Keybot will probably go long, however, a gap-up would not apply, time would be required to see what happens after a gap-up, should it occur.
DeleteSwitched to IE and it has very little load. Must be something with Google Chrome causing load on this website.
ReplyDeleteGlad to hear it is fixed. The problem with Chrome, although supposedly optimized for Blogger is that it opens a different process for each page where firefox and IE do not.
DeleteIt will bog you down under the right conditions. Our IT dept wont allow Chrome on our sys for that reason.
Yep, it is shameful the subpar product GOOG put out. The previous Blooger interface was a software beauty, highly fast and efficient, and then they destroyed that. Seems like things are going backwards with some technology, people looking for something to do to justify their jobs and most of the new stuff is all junk that takes up memory nowadays and causes glitches.
Delete@KS:
ReplyDeleteHi KS.
One question cause I don't really understand. I know that you in US have under construction a pipeline called Keystone XL (for transporting oil from Canada to US , oil obtained by fracturing and oil extracting from sands). As impact on crude price is it true that when this pipeline will be active (sept 2013) crude price will be pressured (deflationary factor)? is it true what I'm saying or am I missing something in this equation ?
Thank you,
V.
That project remains up in the air and it would take a couple years or more to construct and commission properly. The republicans want the project since it will create much-needed jobs, but, the democrats and the president do not, citing environmental concerns, but it is really due their hatred of fossil fuels. Natty gas is the cleanest energy out there and this renaissance is beaten instead of embraced. The natty gas revolution will occur despite the government. The democrats prefer clean fuel alternatives like solar, wind, algae, etc... That stuff is fine but will not be truly viable for another ten or twenty years so it is killing the economy to pursue such folly while at the same time ignoring the savior of the U.S. economy (natty gas). But the Keystone pipeline is simply a political football. It has no impact on markets now. The project is needed since it will help the U.S. become 100% energy independent. The U.S. can export oil and natty gas if the government would get out of the way, and we could end all reliance on Middle East energy in only five years time. Who knows, this may help to stabilize the Middle East as well.
DeleteThank you KS for your answer.
DeleteI really appreciate your wisdom and patience approching the markets and also the comments and questions (even form Anons :D) ..i prefer to post as Anon signing with V.....I don't know why ...maybe i'm not really into the idea of defining my internet identity. Don't have any reason to do that. I'm just ... V. :).
Thank you again,
V.
... and since I like you I'll tell you a great joke heard just some hours ago ... I'll try translating it from romanian in english not to waste too much sense of words and expressions :)
DeleteThe guys, an investment banker and a priest, after their death are headed right to the gates of heaven for God's final judgement ... At the gates of Haven, St. Peter stops them asking what was their profession whilst living ... The investment banker tells to St. Peter all the funny stuff he did, taught St. Peter about margin, leverage, short selling and other funny stuff like that. Smiling, St Peter says: "Ok, you're welcomed in God's Kingdom, take this gilded mantle and this solid gold scepter and go to God's wise judgement." The investment banker takes the stuff, and smiling goes thru the gates.
With the priest the same question as he answered that he pastored in a church with over 1000 faithful citizens.
St. Peter laughs and gives to the priest a simple wool mantle and a wooden scepter.
The priest shocked asks St Peter: "Wait! You've given to that bankster a golden mantle and a gold scepter after all that he have done on Earth to poor people and to me, as humble servant of God, you're giving just a wool mantle? And a wooden scepter??? Where's the justice?"
And St. Peter answers :"You know... People coming to the church only Sundays they where praying from time to time to God when they remembered to do that. Some where sleeping during your Sunday church service.... In case of the investing banker , belive me.... his clients were praying to God 24h/24 , 7 days/week. And we really appreciate efficiency here in Heaven!"
:)))))))))))))))))))
Great joke!
:))))
Also tells us something about the world we are living in.... considering that money is just a piece of thing valueless if it's not credited with trust put in it ....
Anyway ...great joke :D.. hope you all enjoyed it and nobody felt hurt by it. No matter what you are beliving , don't loose your humor. Even God appreciates good jokes :).
V