The beat goes on. Utilities, UTIL, remain below 453.69, bear friendly. The commodities, CRB, remain above 310.50, now in the 313.70-ish area, bull friendly. Thus, the broad indexes stumble along sideways. The SPX came down to tag Keystone's 1337.50 level, even broke thru, but within minutes recovered only to steadily climb; the SPX now printing a 1342 handle.
The SPX is down -0.10% today and the Nasdaq is down -0.11%. Interestingly, tech is weaker by a single hair. A short while ago the SPX was leading the down side, not tech, so the broad markets recovered. Keep watching to see which way tech leads. If the Nasdaq can lead the down side then the broad indexes will move lower again.
The market bulls are making a run now. Bulls need to move up and over 1344.36, if so, another bull leg upwards will accelerate for the indexes. SPX now printing 1343.89, time to see what the market bulls got.
Note Added 2/7/12 at 11:01 AM: That did not take long, SPX exploded above 1344.36 and just printed above 1345. See if this holds for seven to ten minutes, or not.
Note Added 2/7/12 at 11:10 AM: Wow, the market bulls were sly so far today. Traders that got sucked in to the weakness this morning, jumping in short, got their faces ripped off; the SPX moving from under 1336 to over 1345, almost ten handles, in less than an hour. The CRB remaining buoyant and tech not leading the downside showed that the market move down this morning did not have steam. SPX overhead resistance is 1347, 1349, and 1354. Since the market bulls are keeping the SPX above 1344.36, then several more handles of upside would be anticipated such as testing the 1347 R and/or 1349 R.
Note Added 2/7/12 at 3:11 PM: SPX is playing around with the 1347 resistance. The Nasdaq is lagging the SPX currently so the tech strength is not leading the upside, so the upside is limited, even a late day fade is not out of the question. Note that the utilities, UTIL, came up to 452.60, and now is back up again to this level, but this remains one point under the critical 453.69 keeping market bears in the game. Remember last week Keystone was watching the 452.66 level for UTIL? That is why price came up to tag that number, it is still holding some relevancy for the robots. Here it is, see if it punches up thru 452.66 or if it receives another smack down.
Note Added 2/7/12 at 3:18 PM: UTIL is pushing,......punch-thru, there it is. UTIL 452.87. Price should back kiss but once again another small feather in the bull's cap. This is not a big deal for market bears, but, if UTIL takes out 453.69, that is a different story. The SPX is up +0.25% but the Nasdaq is up only +0.11%, thus, without tech leadership to the upside, the market up move should be limited and run out of steam.
Note Added 2/7/12 at 3:30 PM: The bulls are running. UTIL now printing 453.21. If the market bulls gain 48 more cents that would be a very bullish indication. SPX just tagged the 1349 resistance.
Note Added 2/7/12 at 3:37 PM: The TRIN (Arms Index) is 1.12, which is above one actually favoring market bears. The NYHL chart the other day showed the high print that matched the July 2011 top. As the broad markets continue up with higher highs, the NYHL is not printing a higher number today. This is a chart to chart negative divergence in additon to the negative divergences aleady existing on the individual charts. Simply put, very bearish, but it is interesting to see the broad indexes float upwards nonetheless. Bears are pushing the utes back down, UTIL now at 452.76.
Note Added 2/7/12 at 3:43 PM: UTIL now printing 452.66 on the nose. Thus, a bounce here would be bull favorable for markets, if UTIL can fall back thru here, the bears will be happy. UTIL now at 452.74......
Note Added 2/7/12 at 3:47 PM: SPX now testing 1349 R again for some late day drama. Bears just pushed UTIL back under 452.66. SPX now coming down to test 1347 S. Things chang quick. Bears may push lower into the close. See if SPX can hold 1347, or not.
Note Added 2/7/12 at 4:07 PM: SPX finishes the day sitting on the 1347 support. Thus, overhead resistance is 1349 that it tried to get thru today, then the strong R at 1354. UTIL collapsed into the close dropping over one point in the final half-hour to close at 452.06, well under the critical 453.69. The utilities sector is the strongest sector today. That's comical since the utes just fell into a weekly downtrend as of last week and are on pace to do the same this week. Lots of cross currents in the markets now. The China CPI number is very important overnight tomorrow night. CPI will be released 8:30 PM EST Wednesday night. The Mouse House (DIS) results are hitting now so we will see if the futures markets are Sleepy, Goofy, or maybe even Grumpy afterwards.
Seekingalpha.com's Market Currents this afternoon was musing about how big a "sell the news" event a Greek agreement could be. And what if the other political parties there continue to resist the EU's terms? And what if the Chinese numbers tonight aren't good? Given all that and the short-term indicators here, could we have an epic down day Wednesday?
ReplyDeleteHello Weaver, sure we could. Also, simply reference the previous charts such as CPC, NYHL, etc..., and the vapor volume that the move up is occurring on, and negative divergence in charts, lots of factors are saying a big sell-off is at hand.
ReplyDeleteStudy the existence of negative divergences on the minute, daily and weekly charts. Daily chart really wants to see the market sell off, it is tired and negatively diverged. 30-minute chart is negatively diverged causing the weakness the last couple hours on this Tuesday afternoon.
This action is reminiscent of the July top, markets came down, then popped, but then rolled over into the August waterfall crash, so we may be right at the first top and over the next couple weeks this similar fractal may play out. But, as always, take it hour by hour.
I think you've got your reporting times off. China CPI is coming Wed eve 8:30Pm EST. Yes?
ReplyDeleteHello Anon, yep, good ole Keystone is twisted in the time zones again. It appears we will see the China CPI tomorrow at 8:30 PM EST (Thursday morning for China). Danke.
ReplyDelete