Sunday, April 17, 2011

VIX Volatility Weekly Chart Multi Year shows Market Tops

VIX volatility weekly chart testing levels from July 2007 three months before the top in the indexes occurred in October 2007. The VIX 15.0-15.5 area corresponds to the October 2007 high, Summer 2008 high, April 2010 high, February 2011 high and now, perhaps, the April-May 2011 high in the indexes.

If VIX should venture under 15, the 14 handle was touched last Friday, then the market bulls will be in firm control as complacency would reign thru summer. Considering the instability currently in the markets, this outcome is less likely than the VIX actually spiking back up in concert with the indexes selling off.

Note the long term descending triangle that eventually forecasts a collapse thru the 15 level to create uber complacency and bullish markets, but, the failure of the base line would not be projected for a year or two. However, you must always be aware of the potential for the base line at 15 to fail now creating those conditions. But, to avoid any wishy washy analysis and to be clear, the indicators are more agreeable to the VIX moving up again. The next three weeks will tell the tale. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

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