SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Fibonacci Retracements

The SPX is falling out of bed again due to weakness in the semiconductors and retail stocks. The blue lines show the Fibonacci retracements for the rally from 5150-ish to 5650-ish. The SPX collapses on Friday plunging through the 38% Fib at 5455 like it was not even there.

Price heads lower and stalls at the 50% Fib retracement at 5395. Price is at 5408. The LOD Friday is 5403. The 100-day MA is 5379 where price likes to test and bounce. The 20-week MA support is 5406 and the reason that price stopped at 5408 to think things over during the weekend. Well, what's it gonna be boy? What's it gonna be?! Let me sleep on it, and I'll tell you in the morning. Paradise by the Dashboard Light.

Grouping all those support numbers together is a S/R range of 5379 to 5406. Price may stumble and stagger around in this area as it decides to bounce, or die. If price loses 5379, the 62% Fib at 5336 is next support. 

Note the 150-day MA at 5291 starting to flatten. This is bad news. If the 150 flattens and rolls over to the downside, that triggers a cyclical bear market. Price will need to fall below 5291 and linger below for a while to roll the moving average over so put it on a list of things to watch this month. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 9/14/24: The bulls came to play last week pumping banks, retail stocks and copper sending the stock market higher. Scamazon rallied +9%. Let's take a look at things. The SPX daily chart shows price collapsing down to 5400 on Wednesday morning, a matching low to the low shown in the above chart, and the indicators were positively diverged, so a big bounce occurs. The 100-day MA is at 5406 so the general support in the 5400-ish area held for now. The 20-week MA at 5432 also holds as support both these moving averages are bigtime important going forward so continue to track them. The SPX comes up to print a triple-top that is supposed to not exist (If price comes up to a triple-top, the Wall Street adage is that price will continue higher negating the top that is why traders will say that triple-tops do not exist. In reality, Keystone has noted over the years that about one-half the time the triple-top holds and the other time it does not and gives way to a rally). What will happen with this triple-top with the obvious crescendo occurring this coming Wednesday when Pope Powell rides his pale green horse into the FOMC meeting and announces the 25-bip, or 50-bip, rate cut. Negative divergence is in play on the daily chart but the Fed this week overrides everything. The SPX weekly chart remains ugly in negative divergence. If it were not for the Fed's games, the S&P 500 would have already begun a multi-week slide lower. Hump day will provide clarity and even if stocks rally, they would be expected to set up again negatively in short order due to the ongoing neggie d on the charts. If you bring up the SPX 2-hour chart, price is making the matching high with the indicators negatively diverged so barring any happy bullish news tomorrow, stocks are set up to fall in the hourly time frame to begin the week. Watch copper futures; if they are down more than -0.3%, stocks will be soggy. However, stocks are typically higher, about 80% of the time, on the Tuesday into a Wednesday Fed meeting. Despite the bullish calls for SPX to run over 6K this year, the SPX weekly chart wants a multi-week decline to begin. The SPX monthly chart is also ugly with neggie d across all indicators. Folks, you are watching an epic stock market top occur in real-time. A few months or year from now you will be looking back and opining, "What happened?". Where Have All the Flowers Gone?