SPXA150R Percent of S&P 500 Stocks Above 150-Day MA; Significant Stock Market Top At Hand

The SPX (S&P 500; the US stock market) prints a new all-time record high at 3329.88 and new all-time record closing high at 3329.62 on Friday, 1/17/20. Market participants wait for the Godot Top to finally appear and roll over; and keep waiting.

The SPXA150R, the percent of S&P 500 stocks above their respective 150-day MA's, is at an elevated 88 signaling time to short the stock market. Keystone calls it the bet-the-farm indicator, figuratively of course, when it tags 90. At that level, the stock market has nowhere to go but down. The SPXA150R is a whisker from 90 but it is close enough for government work, as we would always say in the 1970's.

The stock market is long overdue for a pullback as evidenced by the rampant complacency in the put/call ratios and these elevated SPXA150R and SPXA200R readings. The above is a daily chart so perhaps it can be used to find out where this market top is at. The only thing saving the stock market from the technical breakdown in recent days is the trade deal hype, Fed and central banker backstop and the new Kudlow tax-cut hype.

President Trump's impeachment trial begins tomorrow with lots of drama no doubt in store but it really does not seem to impact stocks as yet. Trump is flying to Davos to hang out with the world's elite. King Donny does not have many fans in Europe so every meeting room, tavern and piano bar at Davos will have the television on showing the impeachment proceedings. It will be interesting to see if this gamesmanship gets under Donny's orange skin, or not. The elite privileged class play these daily baby games while the huddled masses suffer. The positive news may all be priced-in to stocks while the markets may be susceptible to controversial Trump tweets.

The stochastics and Williams are overbot agreeable to a pullback. The red lines show neggie d across all the chart indicators so the top is in as far as they are concerned. The RSI, however, has managed to squeeze out the tiniest higher high. The RSI has not yet moved up into overbot territory. Price made a high Thursday, then a lower print on Friday. So did the RSI. Therefore, a jog move may occur down Tuesday, up Wednesday, and top-out on Thursday when the RSI rolls over. US markets are closed today, Monday, for MLK Day.

The stock market has needed to top-out for over a month now, technical-wise, so it may simply collapse under its own weight at anytime. The top is in for the stock market and it will occur any hour any day ahead. The only thing that can save it is some kind of happy news talk from the president, or Fed, or other central bank such as the PBOC, or Kudlow mouthing off about a tax-cut that will likely never occur. King Donny could have given a better tax-cut to the huddled masses over a year ago but he did not. The politicians are all the same. President Obama did the same thing. The president's come into office and the first thing they do is cut taxes for the wealthy so the elite class can then write checks to their election campaigns. This is the way crony capitalism works. Do you understand this, or are you stupid?

Price has pierced up through the upper standard deviation band. The bull party is so out of hand that someone just fired off a roman candle and it went up through the bedroom ceiling and out the attic exploding in a ball of flames. The drunkards are laughing with delight sipping more Fed wine and buying stocks with reckless abandon. The bull decadence and party euphoria continues. One bull proclaims that the party will never end. The middle band at 82 and lower band at 77 are on the table.

Price is extended above it moving averages and requires a mean reversion lower. The Aroon green line is overbot with nowhere to go but down while the red line is oversold with nowhere to go but up both indications point to future bearishness.

The 150-day MA in the 150-day MA chart above is sloping higher signaling that the bulls are joyous. Stop and think about things. 90% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are above their 150-day MA's which means their 150's are sloping higher (for the most part) signaling nothing but bullish joy continuing for as far as the eye can see. Think about all the companies and businesses you come into contact with each day; your company, other companies in the building or nearby, fast-food places, restaurants, copy places, rental car agencies, and on and on. The chart says 90% of these companies you see daily are in gangbusters fantastic growth mode, the future is so bright you have to wear shades, these companies will be hiring people, buying equipment and so forth, just think, 90% of the companies are in this great shape now and ready to perform fantastically going forward. Do you believe that? You shouldn't. Watch your wallet.

The stock market is all set to crack wide open like an egg for the morning omelet, however, as always, we will see if happy talk occurs, or a central banker money pump, that would send stocks higher for another week. A flash crash or some other wild market event is on the table this week due to the erratic and unstable price action. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday Evening 6:05 PM EST: S&P +2.

Note Added 6:33 PM EST: S&P -2.


Note Added 7:19 PM EST: S&P -2. Dollar/yen 110.17.