The fleece vest's in Silicon Valley are throwing confetti, drinking Fed wine and congratulating each other with their Apple wrist phones. The Nasdaq 100 Index prints a new all-time high at 7715.07 and new all-time closing high at 7680.72 (green lines) taking out the prior all-time high at 7700.56 from 10/1/18 and prior all-time closing high at 7660.18 from 8/29/18.
The Nazzy 100 record highs follow the new all-time highs in semiconductors. The SOX and NDX are parabolic comically trading like commodities. You know what happens to parabolic charts. The global central bankers have destroyed all price discovery and business cycles with their obscene Keynesian money printing. The chips and tech stocks are the main drivers of the Q1, now into Q2, stock market rally.
The ADX is up at 40 in the stratosphere confirming the strong trend higher in major tech stocks (think FAANG). The market bears will need the ADX to roll over. The Aroon is historic. It is nice to lock the chart into history displaying the perfect +100 and zero Aroon readings. The price action is historic. The trading volume jumps higher. Perhaps that is Joe Retail running into the big tech stocks ready to hold the bag; every top needs a sucka.
The upper band was violated so the middle band at 7505, and rising, is on the table, as well as the lower band at 7270. The collapses from rising wedges can be quite dramatic. The RSI, stochastics are overbot agreeable to a pullback. The chart indicators are in negative divergence wanting to see price retreat lower. That gap at 7400 is big enough to drive a truck through. There are other gaps below.
Despite the four-month rally, the 150-day MA line remains dead flat. Isn't that something? That pink line went negative in December and the Nasdaq 100 major tech and high-flying stocks remain in a cyclical bear market pattern ever since. That is amazing as price prints an all-time high. These are not your grandfather's markets.
The death cross (black circle) occurs in December and remains in play. The bears will need to drive the NDX down to 7K and get it to trend lower from there to maintain the death cross, otherwise, a golden cross will be likely out in May/June. It will be interesting to see if the likely imminent neggie d spankdown and rising wedge collapse can send price down to there quickly. The ongoing uber low CPC and CPCE put/call ratios continue signaling rampant complacency and fearlessness that needs to correct with a beating.
The Mueller report is going to be released in the hours ahead which may cause wild swings either way. The charts want to pull back but President Trump keeps hyping the US-China trade deal and Chairman Powell remains in the basement of the Eccles Building printing money like a madman. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added Good Friday, 4/19/19: US markets are closed today. In the Thursday session, the NDX does not print a new all-time high, so the record high at 7715.07 from 4/17/19 remains in place. The Nazzy 100 does print a new all-time closing high at 7689.72 on 4/18/19 interestingly, exactly 9 bucks above the record closing high from the prior day. The NDX daily chart remains in full negative divergence across all indicators. The SOX (semi's) prints a new all-time record high at 1576.79 on 4/17/19 and a new all-time closing high at 1558.13 on 4/18/19. SMH and XSD are also at record highs. None of the FAANG stocks (FB, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL) are at all-time record highs. Alphabet (Google) is the closest. Any sogginess in stock trading on Thursday due to the release of the Mueller report was nullified by the pre-holiday and full moon bullishness. Perhaps stocks will finally start to come back down to earth on Monday which is Earth Day.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.