NYA NYSE Composite Monthly Chart; Double-Top; Price Extended; Upper Band Violation; NYA Long-Term Top Developing

Now that August is in the rearview mirror and September has begun, the monthly charts can be assessed. The SPX (S&P 500), the major stock index most-closely followed by professional traders and considered synonymous with "the stock market" indicates that a long-term stock market top is in place a la October 2007. The SOX (Semiconductors Index) has also placed a significant long-term top. Ditto the trannies (TRAN; Dow Jones Transports).

INDU, or DJI (Dow Jones Industrials), is set up similarly as the SPX and SOX but the Dow has not overtaken the price high from late January. Ditto the NYA (NYSE Composite).

The COMPQ, NDX and RUT indexes are nearing their long-term tops but are not yet fully negatively-diverged due to the long and strong MACD lines. With the Labor Day holiday behind us and the last four months of the year ahead, it is a good time to review these charts and surmise how the long-term top in the stock market may play out.

The NYA monthly chart above displays a move higher in price creating a double-top, or M-Top, in concert with the January top and record highs. The all-time high is 13626.59 and all-time closing high is also 13624.79 both printing on 1/26/18. Note that all the chart indicators (RSI, MACD, histogram, stochastics and money flow) are sloping negatively but this is not negative divergence. Price must print a higher high than January for the chart indicators to negatively diverge. For now, all chart indicators, and the NYA price, are simply weak unable to overtake the January record highs. With price at 12.9K-ish, the stock market bulls need another 700 points to take out the January highs. 

The double-top chart pattern, or M-Top, and price coming off the overbot RSI and stochastics are bearish indications. Price is also extended above its moving average ribbon requiring a mean reversion lower.

The NYSE Composite has violated the upper standard deviation band since late 2016, so the middle band, also the 20-month MA, is on the table, at a minimum, at 12332 and rising. This level is 579 points under the current price at 12911; about -4.5% below.

The chart signals that the long-term top (months and years) is potentially in place for the NYA. The NYSE Comp topped out and rolled over in May 2015, a significant top that Keystone called in early 2015, but the global central bankers colluded to stop the slide in early 2016 that created the Tweezer Bottom on the chart. Of course the central bankers will always implement policies that protect the wealthy privileged class that own large stock portfolios. The central bankers perform the wealthy's bidding since they are rewarded by the investment banks for their loyalty with lucrative speaking engagements once they leave public office. Wall Street is a corrupt cesspool of filthy human greed. The Tweezer Bottom told you that the central bankers saved the day and stocks would rally for a few months which continued into January of this year.

The negative divergence shown for the SPX, SOX and TRAN monthly chart indicators signal that THE long-term top is in. The chart above hints that the long-term top for the NYA is in or very near (just like the Dow Jones Industrials monthly chart; INDU; DJI). If the NYA price was above 13627, the chart above would be in full negative divergence like the S&P 500, Semiconductor Index and Dow Jones Transports.

The ADX shows that the trend higher in 2014 was a very strong trend (pink box) but this petered out ahead of the May 2015 market top (the move higher in the NYA in early 2015 was no longer a strong trend higher). The ADX shows that the NYA is currently in a strong trend higher, call it slightly strong, so the ADX will need to roll over to the downside to verify that the long-term top is in. The ADX is moving somewhat flat since the January top so it would be no surprise if it rolled over verifying that the up move in the index is no longer strong.

Also watch the Aroon since the green line will fall (like 2015) to verify that THE top is in for the NYA. These prices may not be seen again for many months even many years. If you are a young person contemplating placing money in the stock market; don't. Let that money sit on the sidelines, do not worry that it will not receive much of a return, if any. In a year or two, you will look back and realize it was a smart decision and at that time, depending on how things play out, you may have an excellent chance to enter the stock market at far lower prices. Even if the NYA rallies from here for a bit is likely an exercise of picking up nickels in front of a bulldozer. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.