UST10Y 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Weekly Chart; 10-Year Yield Prints 2.642% Highest Since July 2014

The 10-year climbs to 2.642% overnight comparing back to July 2014 (blue line and circle). Apple is planning to pay a $38 billion tax bill and will likely sell Treasuries to raise the dough. This creates some of the lift in yields.

Bond king Jeff Gundlach said 2.63% was the line in the sand to call a new bond bear market so that level is hit. Bond king Bill Gross said 2.50% and higher was the line in the sand and we passed that to begin the year. The bond kings now say a bear market is ahead for notes and bonds (lower prices higher yields).

The September 2014 high yield was 2.62%. In early July 2014, the 10-year yield printed at 2.69%.  

The red lines show the negative divergence spankdowns in yields and the positive divergence bottoms are the green lines. Keystone called the tops in yields in late 2013 and in early 2017 and the bottom in 2016. The chart told you the direction forward.

Things are dicey over the last year. Yields dropped to near 2.00% but bounced due to the possie d with the histogram, stochatics and ROC. The stoch's were also oversold last August-September looking forward to a bounce in yields (lower prices higher yields). It occurs, however, note that the RSI and MACD line printed lower lows as price printed lower lows. That hints that yields needed to come back down after a rally but instead, yields continue higher through last year into this year now at 3-1/2 year record highs.

Yield takes out the double-top from one year ago which was at 2.62%. The September 2014 levels at 2.62% are also taken out. The 2.69% from early July 2014 offers up resistance going forward.

Over the last year, with yield now higher, the indicators show blatant negative divergence nowhere near the levels one year ago. There is some long and strong strength in the near term due to the momentum. The expectation is for lots of sideways chop through the year perhaps bumping along through 2.20%-2.80%. The inflationists and those expecting 3.00% may be disappointed as the year plays out. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.