Thursday, October 26, 2017

VIX Volatility Daily Chart; Battle at 200-Day MA Bull-Bear Signal Line

According to the Keybot the Quant algorithm, volatility is the key parameter most impacting stock market direction currently. The quant identifies VIX 10.72 as a major bull-bear line in the sand. VIX is currently at 11.03 on the bear side. The stock market will continue lower as long as the VIX remains above 10.72.

Another key market signal is the VIX 200-day MA now at 11.22. Market bulls are in the game under 11.22 but market bears rule the stock market above 11.22.

Thus, use VIX 10.72 and 11.22 as the two key parameters for gauging broad stock market direction going forward. If the VIX drops below 10.72, the stock market will run higher to new record highs. If the VIX is between 10.72 and 11.22, like now, the stock market will stagger sideways with a downward bias. If the VIX moves above 11.22, stocks will sell off in force and market carnage will begin. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 2:55 PM EST: VIX is at 11.23. As the Apollo 13 astronauts said, "Houston, we have a problem."

Note Added 6:12 AM EST Friday Morning, 10/27/17: VIX ends yesterday at 11.30 so the bears are happy. It is surprising that stocks did not sell off into the closing bell but with the tech heavyweights AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT and INTC reporting earnings, traders were willing to wait for the news. The tech companies hit the ball out of the park so S&P futures are up +7 with VIX at 10.81 pennies from the critical 10.72 level. This is key for Friday. As stated above, market bears will be okay as long as the VIX does not drop below 10.72. If the VIX moves below 10.72, Friday will be one big bull party with stocks joyously higher into the weekend. The VIX is at 10.81.......

Note Added 10:29 AM EST Friday Morning, 10/27/17: VIX drops below 10.72 so the bulls are cheering the stock market higher. VIX is at 10.67. The battle continues. The market bears have one last chance to stop the bulls if they can prevent the SPX from taking out today's high at 2574.60. If the bears can stop this and then push VIX back above 10.72 they can remain in the game. If the S&P 500 moves above 2574.60, and the VIX remains under 10.72, the bears are toast. SPX is at 2572.45. VIX 10.60.

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