Friday, June 23, 2017

SPX S&P 500 30-Minute Chart; 8/34 MA Cross; Sideways Symmetrical Triangle

For the VST, the 8/34 MA cross on the SPX 30-minute chart is a very useful indicator. Look at the battle. Both key moving averages are at 2438. Thus, if price is above this level, the 8 MA will move above the 34 MA and bulls win going forward. If price slips under 2438, the 8 MA will stab down through the 34 MA and send the stock market lower.

The sideways triangle is in play with a vertical side at 32 points. So a breakout from 2440 targets 2472. A break down from 2434 targets 2402. Price is making a decision right now and has limited space available inside the apex of that triangle; it must choose a direction. The average of the two MA's is 2437.87 so this is the magic number. Bulls win  big above 2437.87 and then above 2440 while bears win big under 2437.87 and then under 2434.

Interestingly, the new moon peaks this evening at 10:30 PM EST and stocks are typically weak moving through this darkest time of the month. Thus, equities favor a downward bias into Monday. The low CPCE put/call ratio was previously highlighted so a market top is near. The S&P 500 either receives the beginning of a spank down today, that may send price from 20 to 40 points lower and maybe a lot more, or, the bulls muscle out a sideways to sideways higher move into the weekend but this will then top out probably early next week and roll over to the downside. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 11:12 AM: High drama. The SPX price, and 8 and 34 MA's on the 30-minute, are all at ...... wait for it ....... 2438. Price must make a decision up or down. Bulls win big above 2439. Bears win big under 2437.

Note Added 12:13 PM: The drama continues. Interestingly, the central bankers are jamming volatility lower, the VIX drops under 10 to 9.98, however, the SPX is having trouble moving higher. This is a divergence with both stocks and volatility leaking lower. One of them is wrong. Either the SPX will spike higher or the VIX will spike higher. With the VIX pushed lower, the SPX should have already launched above 2440, 2442 and higher but instead remains sticky at 2438-2439. The S&P 500 may be running out of gas. The battle at 2438 continues as traders grab a lunchtime sandwich.

Note Added Sunday, 6/25/17: The S&P 500 ends the trading last week at.... wait for it..... 2438. So the drama continues. Last week ended with the bull-bear wrestling match in full swing. The SPX traded up to 2441 but could not break out higher. Then price collapsed lower to 2431 but then bounced sharply higher to end the day at ... wait for it....2438. The 2438 level is a popular pivot point and remains in play on Monday morning. Adding to the excitement is the chart above with the 8 MA resistance at 2438.64, the SPX price at 2438.30 and the 34 MA support at 2437.53 to end the week. The bulls are favored in this VST time frame as evidenced by the 8 MA above the 34 MA, however, it remains a crap-shoot since the moving averages and price all sit on top of each other at 2438. Flip a coin. The bulls and bears have plenty to think about before trading begins tomorrow morning. The stock market is a huge bull versus bear tug-o-war struggle and the center of the rope is at SPX 2438 to begin the week. Who will win?

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.