Gold is trading choppy sideways over the last couple months and not going much of anywhere. Last week price kept flirting above and below the psychological 1200 level. Note that the 20-week MA at 1205 serves as support (the 1200-1205 area) while the 50-week MA at 1260 serves as overhead resistance (price was spanked down from here two weeks ago). Price violated the lower standard deviation band, those lower blue channel lines, and bounced touching the middle band at 1205 and then staggering sideways.
The indicators are not providing any useful information as gold remains in the middle of the range which has a bottom at 1050 in late 2015 and a top in mid-2016 at 1375. The pink box for the ADX shows that the upward trend in 2016 was a very strong trend that will last, however, at Halloween in late October, the strong upward trend in gold price was officially over.
The green circles show gold bottoms while the red circles show tops. Remember last year when Keystone was calling out the outward-extended COT chart for gold, the neggie d on the candlestick chart, as well as overbot conditions, that indicated a topping-out in gold was occurring, and it did.
The charts are not inspiring for gold long or short. Keystone has no position in gold either way currently and likely will not until a few weeks play out to see what is going on. Since the COT bars are pulled in closer to the middle line, that hints that the gold bulls are favored a bit more than the gold bears. The COT bars have plenty of room to expand outwards like during 2016. The stochastics are overbot in the nearer term which may prefer to create a few days or week or two of sogginess in the gold price. Gold bulls need price to bounce from this 1200-1205 area.
Considering all of the above, sideways is the only conclusion that can be drawn currently. Perhaps lots of sideways for gold ahead through the blue channel which is not inspiring from a trading perspective. Use the moving averages as a key hint for the path ahead. Gold bulls win with price above the 50-day MA at 1260. Gold bears win with price under the 20-day MA at 1205. Price is under 1205 sitting at 1201 which opens the door to visit the lower blue trend line. A move above 1260 and price will want to seek out the 1275-1300 area. Both gold bulls and bears will likely be frustrated trading gold in the weeks ahead. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note: The Gold COT chart is provided by Cot Price Charts and annotated by Keystone.