Monday, December 12, 2016

WTIC Crude Oil Commitments of Traders (COT) and Weekly Charts

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil and other oil prices are very difficult to forecast these days since black gold is trading off news bites and emotion. Overnight, the Saudi's promised to cut oil production by more than the agreement reached with OPEC and non-OPEC producers a week ago. Oil launches higher. WTIC is at 53.

The red circles show tops in oil prices and green circles show the bottoms in oil prices. Oil is ready for a pull back now but the Saudi news overrides the charts, as the news always does, and the chart will build this new news into price over the next couple days. Oil is making a quadruple top currently deciding to either break out higher or collapse. Is this morning the breakout or blow-off top and failure? The latter is more likely. The red lines show negative divergence as price rises but the RSI has not reached overbot levels.

Today's big over +5% upside rally  aside, the expectation would be for a pull back in oil prices beginning at anytime in the days ahead. Keystone is not playing in the oil market these days. It is too erratic and subject to news. The Russians buy a bunch of puts and then say they will pump oil like madmen, then they load up on calls and tell everyone that they will massively cut production. Putin is printing money. The oil space is a circus. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note: The COT chart is provided by COT Price Charts and annotated by Keystone.

Note Added 11:40 AM EST on Monday, 12/12/16: WTIC is at 53.07 printing a HOD at 54.51.

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