Tuesday, September 13, 2016

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart

The SPX is printing at 2124. From the SPX S/R article on the weekend, S/R in this area shown by the brown lines is 2169, 2164, 2160, 2156-2157, 2152, 2135, 2131, 2129, 2126, 2123, 2121 and 2118. The 100-day MA is 2121 and the 20-week MA is 2123. Price is testing the critical 2123 level for a bounce or die decision.

Note the positive divergence (green lines) for the indicators that want to see price bounce and recover. The MACD line, however, is weak and bleak. Thus, some buoyancy in price should occur in this 2-hour time frame then price will come back down again, and, if the MACD line is positively diverged at that time, the near-term bottom will be in place. The 1-hour chart is set up to bounce with possie d across all its indicators.

The expectation would be for the SPX to recover, say, after a bottom is placed either before the closing bell today or shortly after tomorrow's open. The bottom can occur at anytime. Stocks are usually bullish from a Tuesday low to a Wednesday high during OpEx week so price may want to bottom today and perhaps rally into tomorrow afternoon. Keystone bot some index longs a few minutes ago to play this counter trend rally perhaps beginning at any time forward. It would be expected to be a quickie long trade maybe only a day or so. If stocks collapse, Keystone will ditch the longs and make a run for it.

The lower standard deviation band is violated so the middle band at 2157 and falling is in play. The 2156-2157 level is key S/R. A near-term bounce may target this level. The 50-day MA is 2166. The critically-important 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart at 2166 will need back kissed at some point forward.

Keybot the Quant identifies XLF 23.84 as the key line in the sand today. XLF is holdinig at 23.90. You will know that stocks will slide down the rabbit hole if XLF 23.84 fails. If XLF floats higher, then the above analysis would be likely where stocks will recover at anytime and rally for a few hours forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 3:15 PM EST: Stocks weaken and are at the lows. SPX is at 2122.78 with a LOD at 2120.27. XLF is 23.86 fighting at the important 23.84 level. VIX is 18.69 not printing higher than the high at 18.97 about an hour ago.

Note Added 3:32 PM EST: SPX 2130. XLF 23.93. VIX 18.26.

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