Monday, July 18, 2016

CPC and CPCE Put/Call Ratios and SPX (S&P 500) Daily Charts Signal Near-Term Market Top At Hand

The CPC and CPCE put/calls are printing firmly in complacent territory. There is no fear in markets since the central bankers always pats everyone's behinds. When the boat is fully loaded to one side the markets typically go the other way. The bull party euphoric complacency continues today; long traders are drunk as skunks off the flavorful Fed wine, buying stocks with reckless abandon while donning lamp shades on their heads.

The red circles show stock market tops and the green circles bottoms. What do you think will happen? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 5:03 AM EST Tuesday Morning, 7/19/16: The bulls keep partying higher with another rally in the Monday trade. Keystone presses near-term shorts. The expectation is for a 40 to 120-handle drop in the SPX based on the low put/calls. The wild card this week is the ECB meeting on Thursday morning. Tuesday will determine if the bulls can keep stock markets moving sideways with an upward bias for two more days into the critical ECB announcements, or, if markets simply begin to flush lower in earnest to take a rest from the parabolic one-month rally. Thursday will be a pivot day. If ECB President Draghi provides more easy money, that will pump stocks higher. If he balks and is hesitant that would likely accelerate a move lower in stocks. The central bankers are the market.

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