Thursday, June 2, 2016

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart

Stocks are a coin-flip with the US Monthly Jobs Report on tap tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EST (1:30 PM London; 2:30 PM Frankfurt; 8:30 PM Hong Kong; 9:30 PM Tokyo). Here is a look at the 2-hour chart. Keystone highlighted this with the red lines a couple days ago. The neggie d, rising wedge and overbot RSI and stoch's create the spank down. Price only dropped to 2085, however, and the bulls came in to send stocks higher again.

Note the weak and bleak MACD line but the SPX price recovered higher anyway. The negative MACD cross remains in play. There was an intraday oil rally both on Wednesday and today (Thursday) which sent stocks higher. The three white candlesticks show the intraday rally moves for each day. Watch oil since as oil goes, so goes the markets.

The tight standard deviation bands are starting to squeeze out a huge move to the upside. The bears have one chance, tomorrow, to reverse this move, otherwise, price will likely run strongly higher. The upper band is violated so the middle band at 2095 and rising is in play. Note how in the prior chart the expectation was for price to return to the middle band, at a minimum, which it did. Price has not touched the lower band in a while so that has to be on the "to-do" list moving forward.

The prior tight bands in late April squeezed out a move lower from 2100 to 2055 that is 45 handles. Thus, if the upside is the path ahead, and 2090 started the joy, then 2135 is the target which is exactly the all-time record high for the S&P 500. Bears need to reverse price pronto and a drop from 2105 would target 2060-ish.

The dark maroon lines show the higher high in price occurring over the last 11 candlesticks with every indicator negatively diverged. Thus, a move lower in the SPX would be anticipated although the jobs report, central banker jawboning or oil price moves may try to yield a different result. The uber low CPCE put/calls indicate complacency ongoing in markets. Investors Intelligence shows a high percent of bulls at the same time the bears drop to a very low percent. Market participants may be wringing their hands in worry and concern, however, you have to watch what they do not what they say and low put/calls, low volatility and complacent sentiment are all indicators that a pull back in stocks would be appropriate. Talking heads are expressing faux worry since they are buying stocks without a care in the world 10 minutes later.

The expectation is for lower prices in the near-term but the jobs report may want to rally stocks instead. If the jobs report creates bullishness, the chart will quickly adjust and likely delay the top until Monday or Tuesday. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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