Tuesday, September 29, 2015

SPX S&P 500 Weekly Chart Lower Band Violation

The SPX weekly is a critical chart to assess with all the wild market shenanigans ongoing. Price has violated the lower standard deviation band (pink) so the middle band, the 20-week MA, at 2044 and falling is in play. If price would bounce from here and take 2 to 4 weeks to get its act together, the middle band (20 MA) could easily drop from the current 2044 level down into the 1950-2000 range where the ascending price would try and tag. The negative 20/50-week MA cross was highlighted in a previous post; scroll backwards to check that out.

The green falling wedge is a bullish pattern. With the lower low in price, the histogram, stochastics and money flow are positively diverged wanting to see a bounce in price in this weekly basis. The RSI and MACD line, however, want to see further lows in price after any bounce would occur that lasts say for a week or three. The RSI is not oversold so there would be plenty more downside available; ditto the stochastics not yet oversold.

Stocks may fall back into a choppy sideways pattern only instead of the elevated sideways channel through 2050-2135 that held for much of the year, price may establish a sideways choppiness through either 1820-1920 or through 1860-1920, or, potentially, 1860-1990.

Further weakness would be expected for the weeks ahead due to the weak and bleak RSI and MACD line and the RSI and stochastics not yet at oversold levels. In the shorter term, however, the 2-hour chart is hinting at a bounce tomorrow and the histogram, stochastics and money flow are agreeable to a bounce on the weekly basis. The stock market is typically buoyant from the last day of the month into the first few days of the new month especially for a new quarter so the seasonality is on the bulls side. However, the period from September OpEx to mid-October is typically weak. Stocks may start a relief rally that runs into next week but further weakness should rear its head in October.

Looking at the big picture the strongest S/R is 1985-1988, 1978, 1973, 1965, 1961, 1951, 1942, 1924, 1897, 1884, 1878, 1874, 1872, 1848, 1841, 1808 and 1803. Price parked itself overnight directly on Keystone's 1884 level. The 1872-1878 level is a strong gauntlet of supportNote the air pockets between 1872 and 1848 and between 1841 and 1808This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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