Tuesday, May 5, 2015

TNX 10-Year Treasury Note Yield

The German bund yield ran higher and so does the US 10-year Treasury note yield. The 10-year yield catapults from 1.85% to 2.14% in 12 days rising an average of over two basis points per day. The tight standard deviation bands squeeze out the big move (pink). Yield is above the upper standard deviation band for an unprecedented five consecutive days. Yield needs to drop and take a breather. Yield is at the gap left behind from early March at 2.15%-2.19%.

The positive divergence bounced yield off the bottom in mid-April and the indicators remain long and strong. The RSI is flat but has not yet reached overbot territory. Williams is pegged into the ceiling so that will create an initial pull back in yield. After a pull back the yield should continue higher and fill the gap at 2.15%-2.19% but meet strong resistance at 2.20%-2.25%. The 10-year yield may drift sideways through 1.85%-2.25% for the remainder of the year. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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