Saturday, March 8, 2014

TNX 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Daily Chart Sideways Channels

The small jump in yields last week from 2.59% to 2.82%, settling at 2.79%, has many in a tizzy calling for 3% and more coming in quick order. Each time yields move higher the same talk of inflation occurs just like the peaks in yield in August and early September and late December and early January. The bottom in the 10-year yield is approaching one year old. Last May marked the bottom with the oversold conditions, falling wedge and positive divergence. The launch occurs as expected. There are several gaps left behind as the yield exploded higher. Yield will likely want to re-explore the gaps in the weeks and months ahead.

The top occurs in late August due to the rising wedge, overbot conditions and negative divergence as forecasted. Then the bottom in October with the possie d but note that the RSI and MACD line were not happy to see yields continue higher into the end of the year. The second top occurs at the end of the year due to the neggie d. The spank down occurs as forecasted with yield bouncing off 2.58% and now staggering through the sideways channel at 2.58%-2.88%. A wider sideways range is provided through 2.50%-3.00%.

After the peaks and troughs were easily identifiable with possie and neggie d over the last year, this year results with yields moving sideways and indicators mixed on the path ahead. Indicators are providing a sideways vibe forward which would favor a move through the 2.58%-2.88% channel for a few weeks to come. The moving averages are starting to line out sideways reinforcing this projection. Yield should move sideways for a few weeks probably boring everyone looking for a resolution higher. After a couple weeks the chart can be reassessed but the projection for the months ahead is sideways to sideways lower yields, not higher. The 3% plus level may remain elusive all the way into 2015. The 2.88% resistance should be tested. Yield is sitting exactly at the 50-day MA at 2.79% so the pivot from this critical S/R is key. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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