Keystone's Morning Wake-Up 12/21/12; Durable Goods; Consumer Sentiment; Fiscal Cliff Drama

The end of the world occurs today, great timing considering the S&P futures are now down 23.  Today is the first day of Winter, the shortest day of the year daylight-wise.  A snowstorm is moving into and thru Pennsylvania now heading for the East Coast so this may hurt the holiday shopping season. The Saturday before Christmas, tomorrow, is typically the highest retail sales day of the year. Today is also Quadruple Witching OpEx so the volume pushes at the open and the close may add to the market excitement. The House cancelling the vote on Plan B last night resulted in a -3.5% mini-flash crash in the futures. The fiscal cliff drama has taken a turn for the worse, and now the House and Senate has left town, unfortunately, without tar and feathers as they deserve.

So the bears will flex their muscles at the opening bell today. The SPX 1380-1390 area is very important. Keystone's SPX 12-Month MA Cyclical indicator shows 1388 (12-month MA) as the level where very bad things happen to the markets. Watch the SPX S/R to see where price lands and bounces after the opening bell; 1391, 10-month MA at 1398, 1403, 1404, 1406, 1409, 1413, 50-day MA at 1413.64, 1406, 200 EMA on 30-minute chart at 1417.76, 20-day MA at 1418.94, 1419, 20-week MA at 1421.77 and 1429. The 1417.76 requires attention since it is a critical bull-bear line in the sand for the very short term (VST) and short term (ST) trading direction; market bulls remain happy above 1417.76, bears will growl strongly moving forward if 1417.76 fails. The collapse in copper and jump in volatility yesterday creates market negativity. Financials were the main driver in the market push higher this week.  Watch XLF 15.83, the bull-bear line.  Watch RTH 44.50. Watch UTIL 465.82.

The Chicago Fed Index, Personal Income and Outlays and Durable Goods are released at 8:30 AM. Consumer Sentiment is 9:55 AM and will create a market pivot point.  Kansas City Manufacturing Index is 11 AM.  Hurry up, make amends, the Mayan clock ends at 6:11 AM EST, only minutes away, the end is near.

Note Added 12/21/12 at 6:14 AM:  The world did not end.

Note Added 12/21/12 at 7:01 AM:  S&P's are down 19, the Nasdaq is leading the broad market lower which is bear-friendly for markets.  The euro just lost 1.32, now at 1.3194. The 10-year yield is 1.76%. The dollar moves higher and banks such as BAC and Deutsche are down 3% or more. This behavior will send the XLF lower.

Note Added 12/21/12 at 7:17 AM:  Speaker Boehner will hold a press conference at 10 AM EST. Oy vey. With the market pivot set for 9:55 AM, another pivot will now occur as soon as Boehner talks at 10 AM-ish.  Keystone must search for the heart pills and has wheeled the defibrillator closer to the computer. The first half hour of trading into the 10 o'clock hour should prove dramatic.

Note Added 12/21/12 at 9:14 AM: The Dow Industrials futures hit -200 as the floor observes a moment of silence for the Connecticut shooting victims. The S&P's are -23.  Nasdaq -43. The 10-year is 1.74%. The euro is 1.3190. It is interesting that the major Bradley turn is tomorrow and the Bradley window was open for a major market move. Also of interest is Keystone's eclipse sell off indicator which targets this end of year period as having potential for a large market sell off. These items were discussed last weekend. Monday is a short session, Christmas Eve, and low volume would be expected. The fiscal cliff saga is creating holiday drama. Let the festivities begin.