SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Long-Term Multi-Month and Multi-Year Stock Market Top At Hand

It is time for some homework. You are assigned to watch that purple circle on the chart to see if the long-term top for the US stock market is occurring now, in real-time, or, will occur a month or so from now (March). Say what? Down? Everybody, and his brother, on Wall Street says stocks are bang, going to the moon, Alice, this year with 7K and higher popular targets for the SPX. You will have to decide who is Smokin' something.

This is bigtime stuff. If you are under 40 years old and a novice trader, you should get yourself out of the stock market before you get hurt. Keystone called the top to begin 2022; you can scroll back to study those charts. The red lines show the negative divergence in play across all indicators so calling the top on the monthly basis was easy. At the time, the MACD line was playing games, as it typically does since it is usually the last indicator to go neggie d, and only committed to the downside by a hair. Ditto the money flow.

The expectation would be that price has no reason to come back up again on the monthly basis and the S&P 500 was a sick pup for all of 2022. However, the money was flowing like water on Wall Street and Main Street. The Federal Reserve prints money like madmen to protect America's wealthy class and lowers rates, Congress is throwing money to Americans during the COVID-19 pandemic, then the arrogant ignorance, er, artificial intelligence (AI) orgy kicks into gear, and do not forget the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election with King Donnie promising a chicken in every pot. Add it all together and you have an out of control upside stock market so obscene it would make Caligula blush.

You are witnessing the piggish end to the crony capitalism system that is now spitting-up blood. It is a shame that capitalism does not exist but the power of human greed knows no bounds.

Anyhoo, the SPX in 2025 prints a matching price high for four consecutive months. Since price is at a matching or higher high, the chart indicators can be reviewed for neggie d.

All the indicators are in negative divergence calling for a top in the stock market on a monthly basis, except for the stubborn MACD line that remains long and strong, by a hair. It takes a magnifying glass but the MACD, already in nosebleed territory, sneaks up a tiny nano-length. That is your homework; the purple circle. Keystone likes purple crayons because they taste like grapes.

The entire balance of the US stock market depends on that purple circle. Even if the MACD remains long and strong, it only delays the top by a month or two for a jog move to occur (down-up) to then position the MACD with neggie d (downward-sloping). So the end is nigh. The MACD is also outrageously high and the only direction to go is down going forward.

The current task is figuring out where the exact top is at. Scroll back to the SPX weekly chart where Keystone explained that top and it is rolling over in the weekly time frame currently. Thus, she either falls down the rabbit hole now and heads lower for many months even a couple years or more, or, she wants to hang-on for a few more weeks before topping-out and then falling down the rabbit hole for many months even a couple years or more.

The purple circle tells you which one will occur. It is February, don't forget to pronounce the r when you say it, so the new monthly candlestick is only 2 days old. There is lots of trading remaining this month. If the SPX collapses from here, as the uber bullish sentiment and rampant complacency suggest, watch the MACD line because it is evolving with price. If the SPX sells off, the MACD line is going to drop on the end and it will be neggie d this month. Hence, the top is now and a multi-month and multi-year downturn is starting in real-time.

If at the end of this month, 2/28/25 is a Friday, the MACD line is still sloping a hair higher like now, stocks will drop for a month, but then regain their footing and come up for another higher high in price in March. At that price high, the MACD will likely be neggie d, joining all the other indicators, so March would be the multi-month and multi-year top instead of right now in real-time.

So now you know what to watch to call the long-term top after you pick yourself up from the carpet trying to grasp the thought that the money you see in your brokerage account today, will only be half that amount in a year or two. Plan accordingly.

Keystone calls May 2015 the last legitimate top in the US stock market. Everything above 2015 is fluff and phony-baloney garbage and trash. It is a representation of the crony capitalism bloat that is unmanageable and unfixable. We all are simply going to watch it implode going forward.

The RSI, stochastics and money flow are overbot agreeable to a pullback. Price will correct to the 200-month MA at some point forward so do not be surprised in a year or two to see the SPX down in the 2,000-3,500 range. That will get everyone's attention. That is where the SPX should have stayed for the last few years if the country was not hopelessly corrupt, addicted to easy money, and drowning in the unforgiving waters of rigged crony capitalism.

The Aroon green line shows that nearly every stock market bull believes that the stock market will go up forever. Comically, the Aroon red line indicates that every single stock market bear also thinks that the stock market will go up forever. Pause for laughter. This uber bullish behavior is occurring with bitcoin, also. Even funnier, every single bear believes stocks will go up forever but only 96% of the bulls think stocks will go up forever. That is priceless and proves how every single trader is on the bull side of the boat believing that stocks will go up forever so it is time to party like its 1999.

Price violated the upper band so a trip back to the middle band at 5226 and rising sharply, and the lower band at 4047 and rising sharply, are on the table going forward. All of you folks long the market have to make big decisions now and do it while you can. Daylight's Fading. It will be fun watching raw human emotion play out over the coming months. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

VIX Volatility Daily Chart

Volatility dictated the ebbs and flows in Friday trading. The Keybot the Quant algo is long but champing at the bit to go short and identifies VIX 16.85 as the key metric currently impacting stock market prices.

If VIX pops above 16.85, stocks will sell off. If VIX sustains above 16.85, it will be headed for 20 and higher as stocks collapse.

If VIX remains below 16.85, the stock market party will continue for a day or few. Party Town. On Friday as the VIX popped above 16.85, stocks were dropping like rocks. The bulls fought back and in the final minutes, the Fed's jackboot was held on the neck of Uncle Vix making sure the stock market ended happy before the weekend.

King Donnie's tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China will impact stocks on Monday. Canada retaliates but no one is afraid of baby Trudeau, the wannabe tyrant that likes to dress up in blackface on weekends. Mexico is trying to play it cool. The communists are quiet since the Chinese New Year's holiday continues. It is the Year of the Snake for the lying, slithering communists (the 90 million CCP dirtbags; not the 1.4 billion Chinese folks that must live under CCP rule). Prima donna Donnie loves the drama because that gives him an excuse to show his orange head on camera every 10 minutes.

Today is Groundhog Day here in scenic southwestern Pennsylvania; the Laurel Highlands. Punxsutawney Phil, the original and only true animal weather prognosticator, will tell everyone if winter continues for another 6 weeks (he sees his shadow), or, spring is around the corner (he does not see his shadow). There will be plenty of live feeds available on the internet as the time draws near. Phill will come out of his stump home and make his judgement on the weather at about 7 AM EST as the sun rises in these parts. Of course, most people, the non-skiers and non-skaters that sit inside instead of enjoying winter sports, want an early spring and warmer weather, so they are hoping that Punxsy Phil will not see his shadow.

Punxsy Vix will ditch the stock market if he sees 16.85 and higher but the fun times continue in the stock market if he sees 16.85 and lower. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 5:14 PM EST: Punxsutawney Phil disappointed many people today because his shadow he did see, so 6 more weeks of winter it will be! Skiers, skaters, hockey players and snow-tubers rejoice with glee. Next up is Punxsy Vix. What will he see beginning at 3 AM EST?

Note Added 6:04 PM EST: S&P futures collapse out of the gate this Sunday evening on the East Coast puking -115 points. The Dow futures are coughing up nearly -500 points. The Nazzy 100 futures plummet over -600 points. Russell 2000 small caps are down -3.5%. WTIC oil is up +3% to 75-ish. Gold up a few bucks at 2800. USD 108.50. Bitcoin drops to 97.2K. Donnie Trump's tariffs ignite a trade war. Mexico, Canada and China announce or plan retaliation against the US.

Note Added Monday Morning, 2/3/25, at 6:01 AM EST: VIX pops above 20 overnight now at 19.78. The bears are coming to play. S&P futures are down -90 points. USD 109.52. Bitcoin has a 95K handle. 

CPC Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart; Rampant Euphoric Bullishness, Fearlessness and Hubris Signals Significant Stock Market Top

Take advantage of the melt-up to ditch any remaining longs. The hubris in the stock market and rampant fearlessness must be disciplined. What do you think? A Black Monday? Black Tuesday? The SPX all-time record high is 6128 and price today tags the 6116 palindrome forming a double-top. Fun times. Eve of Destruction.

If you do not get out of the stock market, you deserve everything that is about to happen to you. Do not wear your favorite shirt, because you are about to lose it. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Friday Afternoon, 1/31/25, at 3:42 PM EST: Did you get out? Let the blood and carnage begin on Wall and Broad. The SPX peaks at the HOD at 6121 almost up to the all-time high at 6128, and then falls on its sword down to 6031 a 90-point intraday collapse. Look at the rats scurry. There is no place to hide now. It is time to receive your head on a platter. Stocks should drop a long way from here. Monday will depend on the Donnie tariffs against Mexico, Canada and communist China. Pachelbel's Canon in D is fantastic as the knives are out and the harvesting begins. It is time to pay for your greed.

Note Added Sunday Evening, 2/2/25, at 6:05 PM EST: S&P futures collapse out of the gate this Sunday evening on the East Coast puking -115 points. The Dow futures are coughing up nearly -500 points. The Nazzy 100 futures plummet over -600 points. Russell 2000 small caps are down -3.5%. WTIC oil is up +3% to 75-ish. Gold up a few bucks at 2800. USD 108.50. Bitcoin drops to 97.2K. Donnie Trump's tariffs ignite a trade war. Mexico, Canada and China announce or plan retaliation against the US.

Note Added Monday Morning, 2/3/25, at 6:03 AM EST: VIX pops above 20 overnight now at 19.78. The bears are coming to play. S&P futures are down -90 points. USD 109.52. Bitcoin has a 95K handle. 

Gut Reaction of Markets when Donnie Trump Imposes Tariffs on Mexico and Canada

It is interesting to see the gut reaction of financial instruments when King Donnie Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada that may or may not include oil and may or may not occur depending on how the orange-headed bloviating carnival clown wakes-up tomorrow morning. Trump had committed to making a decision on the tariffs by Saturday, 2/1/25, so the announcement at 3:30 PM EST-ish today was somewhat expected. Markets reacted instantly.

The reaction to Donnie's proclamation was swift and sharp. The US dollar index spikes higher and the euro (EURUSD) collapses lower. The SPX, that is the S&P 500, the United States stock market, falls down the rabbit hole on Donnie's words. Ditto the NDX that is the high flying tech stocks in America, the Nazzy 100. They fell off a cliff and AI (artificial intelligence not arrogant ignorance) darling PLTR also gave up the ghost.

The DeepSeek AI model has Silicon Valley in a tizzy. Company stores report a drop in fleece vest sales. Did you know that India is working on an AI model that can compete with DeepSeek? Yes, they plan on calling it DeepSikh. Rim shot. A little bit of AI humor. Very little.

On the tariff news, yields pop higher and the TBT ETF moves higher in the direction of yields. The TLT ETF moves lower as yields and the TBT popped higher. The 2-year yield popped from 4.19% to 4.21%. The 10-year yield popped from 4.51% to 4.53%. Bitcoin collapses lower on the tariff news.

The orange-headed carnie barker slaps Mexico and Canada in the face with a white glove. What will happen next? Did you see the other day, that Donnie's head looked more pinkish than the usual orange, like a pink grapefruit? He is orange head not pink grapefruit head.

Summing up, the gut reaction when Donnie Trump imposed tariffs on Western-friendly countries, results in the dollar spiking higher, euro collapsing lower, stocks including AI darlings and the major indexes collapsing lower, Treasury note and bond yields higher (notes and bonds sell off), TBT moves higher, TLT moves lower, and bitcoin moves lower. Gold fell on the higher dollar but quickly recovered and chopped sideways during the tariff chaos.

Shortening things, when Mister Tariff, Donnie Trump, imposes tariffs, the following gut reaction occurs; US dollar up, euro down, stocks down, Treasury yields higher, bitcoin lower. Note that the dollar and bitcoin moved opposite on the news. Also, yields nudged higher a touch so notes and bonds were sold off, and stocks were sold off, on the tariff news. Traders and investors were gittin' outta Dodge on all fronts, selling everything, stocks, bonds and bitcoin, since Donnie, the tariff bull in the China shop, is starting to bump around and knock things off the shelves. Sell first and ask questions later. Pretty Little Lie. Good ole boys sitting around playing the Martin's that are made by hand in good ole Pennsylvania. It beats the hell out of working. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

CPC Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart; Multi-Year Complacency and Fearlessness Mark Substantial Stock Market Top

She's gonna blow! Hit the deck! It is fantastic watching the giddy human crowd behavior as the stock market prints a substantial top. The multi-year low put/call ratio, dipping to 0.72 verifying the previous sub 0.70 number, is signaling rampant complacency and fearlessness identifying a substantial top in the stock market. One of those "Black _____" days of the week may be ahead (Black Tuesday, Black Friday, etc...). Black Friday has a nice ring to it.

The bears all left town penniless, and now live on the other side of the tracks, on Skid Row. The bulls are selling shares to other bulls and then buying them back after they are even more bulled-up. It is comical behavior. Human greed is the most dominant force.

Traders are tripping over each other to buy any stock with a heartbeat. Run for your life before you get run over especially novice traders since you are about to get your lunch eaten if long the market. The drop in the SPX, that should begin any day forward, would be expected to shed from 200 to 800 points so it is going to be a lot of fun.

When the festivities begin, the VIX will pop above 16.87 and then above 20 and higher. If you are long the stock market, you need to be very afraid right now. You are picking up nickels in front of a bulldozer and do not realize your shoelace is untied. Don't Go Back to Rockville. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

BTCUSD Bitcoin Weekly Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Double-Top; Upper Band Violation

Bitcoin enthusiasts are about to have a religious experience. Bitcoin is cooked. Crispy-fried. Look at the chart. Are you blind? That is universal neggie d which will create a spankdown and the start of a multi-week pullback.

Bitcoin placed a record high at 108369 on 12/17/24 and then managed a higher all-time record high at 109340 on 1/20/25. Party time. Everyone is waving around bitcoin with puffed chests. However, now is the time to sell as the chart shows. Price may want to print a closing price at 109K+ in the days ahead but it will likely not change the chart indicators. If the MACD manages to develop a bit of buoyancy again, it would likely only delay the top by a week or two.

The negative divergence is ominous. Price also violated the upper standard deviation band so a move to the middle band at 86K, and rising, is on the table, and also the lower band at 55K and rising sharply. Bitcoin is printing a double-top, or M-Top.

The Aroon green line shows that 96% of the bulls believe bitcoin will go up forever; call it 100%. At the same time, the Aroon red line shows that every bitcoin bear also believes that bitcoin will go up forever. That is hilarious. Even better, the bears are universally convinced that bitcoin will go up forever while the bulls are only 96% convinced. The bitcoin bears believe that the price will go up more than the bitcoin bulls. That is funny stuff obviously telling you that a period of weakness on the weekly basis is ahead.

If you bring up the monthly chart, the MACD remains long and strong with the other indicators neggie d. Thus, bitcoin is topping-out now and will receive a smackdown and develop a weekly downtrend for a few weeks but then it will bottom (look for positive divergence in the future) and come back up for a higher high on the monthly basis.

The way that may play out is down now into mid to late February, then rally again all the way back up perhaps to 120K-130K in March, and that will likely do it for bitcoin on the LT monthly basis. The monthly chart would then be topped-out with neggie d signaling that bitcoin is headed for a long, long, multi-month trip south starting in March/April probably through year-end. For now, bitcoin is cooked on the weekly basis. Simply watch the charts and the neggie d develop. Once she drops, you can call the bottom on the weekly basis in February when positive divergence develops on the weekly chart above.

There is huge support in that 60K-72K range so that would be downside support if the middle band support fails. Keystone is not holding bitcoin long or short or any of the derivatives. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday, 2/2/25: Bitcoin 99.6K.

Note Added Sunday, 2/2/25, at 5:19 PM EST: Bitcoin is 97.5K, no, check that, 97.2K. Bitcoin is faceplanting and biting the dust, which never tastes good. King Donnie's tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China are resulting in retaliation spooking global markets sending bitcoin south. The Trump trade war begins.

Note Added Monday Morning, 2/3/25, at 6:01 AM EST: VIX pops above 20 overnight now at 19.78. The bears are coming to play. S&P futures are down -90 points. USD 109.52. Bitcoin has a 95K handle. 

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; Watch the Trap-Door at the 50-Wk MA at 967

Utilities tease another failure yesterday but no one knows since they do not know what to watch. The UTIL 50-week MA at 967 is a key support level not only for utes but for the entire stock market. The utilities are already hinting at trouble ahead for stocks because UTIL is in a weekly down trend remaining below the closing price from 15 weeks ago (thin blue line).

The 50-week MA is a trap-door for the US stock market. Here is a link to the previous UTIL chart from a couple weeks ago for further study. If UTIL fails at 967, yesterday price fell to 968 before recovering, the SPX would be expected to dump 20 to 40 points within an hour later, and the stock market would go into a crash profile going forward through the intermediate term. Ominous stuff. And it all depends on the trap-door at UTIL 967. If the trap-door opens, trouble and Strange Days will find you. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

USD US Dollar Weekly Chart; Long-Term Sideways Channel thru 101-106; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation

Everyone is watching the US dollar index these days, the USD, or DXY, dixie, as it catapults to the moon after the late September 2024 low launching from a 99-handle to 110. Traders have been trying to call the top in the greenback and short it for the last couple months; the trading floor is strewn with their bodies.

Two weeks ago, the dollar prints a Tweezer Top. The dollar daily chart was in full negative divergence with its chart so the top call was easy on 1/13/25 for the daily time frame and the buck receives the neggie d spankdown. The negativity on the daily conspires with the neggie d above on the weekly for all the indicators except for the MACD. Therein lies the rub.

For a complete confirmation of the dollar short, the MACD line should have rolled over but instead it remains long and strong as price prints the matching top. The MACD has more fuel in the tank to bring price higher which questions the sharp down move in the green back last week.

If the MACD above would be neggie d (sloping downward as price makes the new high like the other indicators), it would mark a multi-week top for the dollar. This may still be the path ahead, however, if the MACD has anything to say about it over the next week or two, it wants price to come back up again on the weekly basis.

Price violated the upper band so a move back to the middle band at 105 is on the table. The middle band, that is also the 20 MA, ramps higher so price, the upper sideways channel S/R lines, and the rising middle band may all converge on 106.00-106.25. That would be the logical place for the bounce if she wants to come back up using the MACD as the remaining fuel.

The fractal from 2022 (blue box) may provide insight. The dollar broke higher, came back for the back kiss to those green lines, then rallied higher, then paused again (orange circle), this is where the current price behavior is at, and then the dollar placed a big 2-week spike higher to then top-out during the subsequent 3 weeks due to the negative divergence. Like now, in 2022, the dollar took the pause when the indicators were all negatively diverged except for the MACD line. With the final thrust higher, that took about 5 more weeks to play out, the MACD joined the other indicators in signaling neggie d, and the top was in, and bloop, down the dollar went to end 2022.

It gets more interesting. If the move down currently in the dollar is a fake-out, and she needs one more matching or higher price high before the top in the dollar can be called on the weekly basis, there may be Hell to pay in the stock market.

The US stock market is on the edge of a cliff right now with pebbles and small rocks falling off the side of the trail dropping hundreds of feet to the jagged rocks below. The stock markets wobbly knees keep walking this shaky path wondering when the earth will give-way. The multi-year lows in the put/call ratios verifies the euphoric bullish optimism and rampant complacency and fearlessness in the US stock market. Traders need to be taught a lesson like Cool Hand Luke. 'That's the way traders want it, so that's the way they'll git it'.

The SPX charts are also set-up or setting-up with neggie d so all the chess pieces are aligned for a potential significant negative stock market event in the days ahead. If the dollar recovers in the days ahead, and through the following week, running higher like a banshee, the stock market will likely collapse. How cool would it be to see it crash?

In the blue fractal above, when the dollar made its last move higher, that is the same time that equities were stumbling lower. 2022 was a lousy year for the stock market. It was capped off by the final surge higher in the dollar during August 2022 through October 2022, and of course the key bottom for the US stock market occurred right there at October 2022 when the dollar started to collapse from its top. For that 9-week drop in the stock market in 2022, as the dollar made its final flourish higher, the SPX puked 833 points. Let's see... give me that envelope Sonny; the back-of-the-envelope calculation, using the all-time record high for the SPX at 6128.18 on Friday, 1/24/25, would be 6128 minus 833 or 5295. A 52-handle on the SPX would get everyone's attention (-14% crash).

Alas, on the other hand of the two-handed trader, the positive outcome may occur (for stocks) where the dollar continues retreating tagging the middle band and falling below the sideways trend lines to once again favor that long-term sideways channel going forward. Simply watch the chart to see how it plays out. Once it begins going in a specific direction, you will know what is going to happen.

Keystone is not playing the dollar or other currencies long or short currently. The potential play above would be to not play the dollar now and instead wait for a week or two for confirmation to the downside, where shorts can be brought on, or, the reversal and jump higher as stocks collapse, where you can then wait for the dollar to officially top-out with neggie d on the MACD as explained above, and then play the dollar short from there for a multi-week slide lower. It will be fun to watch since the dollar direction likely dictates the direction (inverse) for the US stock market.

Of course, the timing of all this drama is on target with the FOMC two-day meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, 1/28/25 and 1/29/25. Powell is at the cleaners this morning asking the clerk if they can get the jelly stain off of his necktie from the free buffet at the last meeting. Pope Powell will bring the tablets down from On High on Wednesday afternoon and tell traders how to trade. That is likely the pivot point that sends one of the two scenarios above in full motion forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday Evening, 1/26/25, at 7:43 PM EST: S&P futures are down -40 points. That is interesting. The dollar is stronger by a hair. USD 107.58. Dollar up, futures down. Bitcoin 101.5K. 

Note Added Sunday Evening, 1/26/25, at 8:01 PM EST: S&P futures are down -50 points. 

Note Added Monday Morning, 1/27/25, at 5:50 AM EST: Dollar moves above and below the flat line overnight now down a hair to 107.29. S&P futures are down at session lows crashing -157 points or -2.6%. The Nazzy futures are off -4.6%. Don't you love the smell of napalm in the morning? Bring in the airships boys, pull your units back sergeants, time to light it up like a birthday cake. Here they come. The AI stocks are collapsing because a DeepSeek outfit in China has produced AI results with technology currently available. Just think of all the billions spent (wasted?), and the commitments to the power industry even nuclear to support AI, and a guy in his basement may have a better solution. It is hilarious. NVDA -13%. META -5%. MSFT -7%. AVGO -13%. PLTR -10%. The Trump tariff threat to Colombia, that has been reversed overnight, also has markets reeling. The VIX pops above 20 to 20.63. The 10-year yield drops -11 bips to 4.51% as traders seek the perceived safety of notes and bonds (bond prices run higher on the demand so yields collapse lower). Remember, don't panic! Don't panic!!.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 1/28/25, at 5:34 AM EST: USD 107.88. The SPX loses 89 points yesterday, -1.5%, to 6012. The Nazzy Comp and Nazzy 100 both collapse -3.%.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 1/30/25, at 7:06 AM EST: USD 108.09. The Fed decision and press conference was yesterday. The buck is buoyant. 10-year yield 4.49%.

Note Added Sunday, 2/2/25: USD is at 108.22 printing a high on Friday at 108.40 testing the 20-day MA overhead resistance at ....... wait for it ........ wait a bit longer ...... 108.40. This is obviously a key level. If the greenback pops above 108.40, she will run strongly higher. Dollar bears must prevent 108.40 with all their might.

Note Added Monday Morning, 2/3/25, at 6:06 AM EST: S&P futures are down -90 points with the VIX up to near 20. USD 109.52. Bitcoin has a 95K handle. 

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Megaphone (Expansion) Pattern; King Donnie Stock Market Rally; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation

The SPX daily chart is a plate of spaghetti. Lots going on there. The multi-year lows in the CPC and CPCE put/call ratios signal a stock market top at hand so it is only a matter of letting the charts set-up with neggie d so you can call the top. The SPX 2-hour chart topped-out Friday morning which led to the softness in the stock market yesterday.

The SPX daily chart is topping-out with negative divergence (red lines) although the MACD and money flow are trying to squeeze-out another jog move which would be up-down-up (3 days).

A previous chart explained and called the top in early December with the red rising wedge pattern, neggie d, upper band violation and mean reversion required. The money flow printed another high in December telling price it wanted to see it come back up after any weakness occurs. Price is spanked lower for the back half of December but recovers to the new all-time record high at 6128.18 on Friday, 1/24/25. The red lines show universal neggie d as mentioned above so she is about to begin the big move lower as dictated by the overblown euphoric bullishness and rampant complacency. There are no bears in the stock market.

The H&S pattern was highlighted in a previous chart with the neckline at the blue line at 5870-ish. The neckline gave way but price did not drop very far due to the new King Donnie rally as he was sworn-into office on Monday, 1/20/25 when markets were closed for MLK Day. A potential island reversal pattern was in play where price may have dropped from 5870 to 5780 back down through the gap shown by the blue lines but instead, price simply trailed lower and filled that gap from the November election.

The blue boxes show the two Donnie Trump rallies one for the election and the other right now as he comes into office signing executive orders like the latest king of America. Why was Melania dressed like the black spy from Spy Vs Spy at the inauguration? That was odd. Either she wants to look like a man, or a gangster, or she is paying homage to Mad Magazine.

The economic forum at Davos occurred this week. Davos is where the billionaires go to tell the millionaires how to live. The pricks arrive on private jets, burning fuel like crazy polluting the planet, as they preach climate change. And some of you buy-into that climate change dribble. That's funny. These elite folks are just using you, idiot.

For the blue rectangle for the November rally, when the orange-headed bloviating carnival clown defeated the cackling Marxist/communist, that fractal rolled-over after tagging the upper band and fell to the middle band that is also the 20-day MA. Same-o set-up this time so a drop to the middle band at 5960 and/or a drop to the lower band at 5785 are on the table. The 5870-ish and 5780-ish blue support lines are important going forward. So is the 100-day MA at 5855 which held as support this year.

The volume candlesticks show that the start of the current Donnie rally began with the smart money distributing stock to the bagholders. Friday was also a distribution day where the investment houses are ditching stock and Joe Sixpack, Carlos Bagholder, and Carmelita Sucka are buying the shares caught-up in the King Donnie hype and his proclaimed executive orders. As Yul said, "Let it be said, let it be written, let it be done." America is a crony capitalism system, unfortunately in its final throes, that chooses a new king every four years that decrees and implements executive orders from the throne. If that is what you idiots want, go for it.

The main pattern highlighted in the bowl of spaghetti above is the megaphone or expansion pattern. Price oscillates tagging upper and lower boundaries forming the megaphone shape. The SPX is at the top of the megaphone so a trip to the bottom of the pattern targets 5700-5730. The megaphone shouts, "Sell, Mortimer, Sell."

Are you ready for the fun? Maybe a Black Monday? Maybe a Black Tuesday? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday Evening, 1/26/25, at 7:43 PM EST: S&P futures are down -40 points. That is interesting. The dollar is stronger by a hair. USD 107.58. Dollar up, futures down. Bitcoin 101.5K. 

Note Added Sunday Evening, 1/26/25, at 8:01 PM EST: S&P futures are down -50 points. 

Note Added Monday Morning, 1/27/25, at 5:50 AM EST: Dollar moves above and below the flat line overnight now down a hair to 107.29. S&P futures are down at session lows crashing -157 points or -2.6%. The Nazzy futures are off -4.6%. Don't you love the smell of napalm in the morning? Bring in the airships boys, pull your units back sergeants, time to light it up like a birthday cake. Here they come. The AI stocks are collapsing because a DeepSeek outfit in China has produced AI results with technology currently available. Just think of all the billions spent (wasted?), and the commitments to the power industry even nuclear to support AI, and a guy in his basement may have a better solution. It is hilarious. NVDA -13%. META -5%. MSFT -7%. AVGO -13%. PLTR -10%. The Trump tariff threat to Colombia, that has been reversed overnight, also has markets reeling. The VIX pops above 20 to 20.63. The 10-year yield drops -11 bips to 4.51% as traders seek the perceived safety of notes and bonds (bond prices run higher on the demand so yields collapse lower). Remember, don't panic! Don't panic!!.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 1/28/25, at 5:34 AM EST: USD 107.88. The SPX loses 89 points yesterday, -1.5%, to 6012. The Nazzy Comp and Nazzy 100 both collapse -3.%. Everyone is in a tizzy over the DeepSeek artificial intelligence in China. If the new AI technology was discovered in India, it would have been called DeepSikh. 

CPCE Put/Call Ratio and SPX S&P 500 Daily Charts; Rampant Complacency and Fearlessness Signal Stock Market Top

The CPCE put/call ratio is down to lows not seen in a couple years. The euphoric stock market complacency is off-the-charts. Grandma Nellie, that does not know stocks from shinola, called a broker to place her entire life savings in the stock market. The Uber driver bot a 3x long ETF using up an entire paycheck. The Fed wine is flowing like water. Everyone and his bro expects stocks to go to the moon, when King Donnie takes the throne on Monday, at high noon.

Traders and investors are fearless since you can pick any stock and it will always go up forever. What's that sound? Oh no, a fuse is lit. Get out!! The party rages on but the band already played the last song and is loading up the van. It is Closing Time. The stock market will likely blow-up starting any day forward due to the rampant complacency and 100% bullishness in the stock market. Bears no longer exist.

The two voluptuous green ovals of joy signaled that the panic and fear was off the charts--the opposite of now. In August, and then again in September, everyone thought all hope was lost. Stocks would collapse into oblivion and franks and beans would be served at Thanksgiving and Christmas dinners. That excessive gloom, despair, and agony, as the Hee-Haw boys sing, tells you it is time to buy. People are running from the market with their hair on fire so that is when you take their shares off their hands and go long.

In October, the put/calls fell to low values like now, and that resulted in a 180-point selloff in the SPX, call it 2 hundo. And then, in early November, the orange-headed bloviating carnival clown defeated the Marxist/communist in the POTUS election and the stock market goes wild to new heights. It has all been choppy slop ever since. The drop coming in the US stock market will likely be far larger than the prior 2 hundo pullback.

Today is a big back test of the 50-day MA at 5958. Price begins at 5950 so the bulls need 8 points to retake the 50-day hill. This would create a path to further highs in stocks as the bulls puff their chests out. Bears must hold the line at the 50 and spank the bulls back down. Whoa, doggie. Look at that. In real-time, the S&P futures are up 8 points. The bulls and bears want to rumble at the 50 today like the New York gangs.

The fuse is lit on the TNT due to the rampant stock market complacency and fearlessness. T-N-T, its dy-no-mite, as AC/DC sings. You know what happens when you play around too much, right? It blows up in your face. Are you still greedy and picking up nickels in front of the bulldozer? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9:40 AM EST: Stocks are off and stumbling for a new day of choppy slop. The 50-day MA is at 5963 and price is at.... wait for it...... wait a bit longer for it...... 5963. The bulls and bears are battling over this important piece of real estate and it is important who wins. The SPX must bounce or die. Which is it?

Note Added 9:43 AM EST: Spank, spank. Bears spank price lower to 5952 in a heartbeat. The battle at 5963 will continue.

Note Added Saturday, 1/18/25: Friday morning was set up with price sitting between the 50-day MA overhead resistance at 5968, that now becomes support, and the 20-day MA support at 5924. Price exits the top of this moving average band gapping-up to a HOD at 6015 and ending the day at 5996.66. That is interesting. The SPX dropped to 666 in March 2009 when the Federal Reserve started printing money like madmen to protect the wealthy class that own stocks. That 15 years of crony capitalism sent the SPX to over 6000 rewarding the elite privileged class and upper middle class sycophants that service the wealthy and own the stock market. One-half of Americans do not own a single share of stock so they are spit on for the 15-year period. Isn't it enough to make you puke? Be glad the crony capitalism system is in its last throes. Stocks typically rally the two days in front of a 3-day weekend and that textbook was followed to end the last week. King Donnie and the gang, that were supposed to be macho men, do not want to be cold so the inauguration will be indoors on Monday as they sing Macho Man. US markets are closed on Monday for Martin Luther/Don/Rodney/Billie Jean King Day. The SPX should top-out any day forward, sometimes it takes up to 2 weeks once the low put/calls are registered. Maybe a Black Tuesday ahead? Bulls are excited for the economy now that King Crybaby is back in the Oval Office, where 4 years ago, on 1/6/21, Donnie Trump refused to stop violence and instead watched television cheering for Americans to hurt and maim each other. Donnie better half the price of eggs by summertime or his arse will be grass. You can look at the SPX charts to time the top once neggie d appears. Let's see. On the SPX 2-hour chart, she is neggie d except for the MACD so the top is likely Tuesday morning for the hourly time frame. On the SPX daily chart, the indicators point to a few days more of buoyancy/upside in the daily time frame. Tuesday may be a binary event. Donnie will be signing executive orders like a mad tyrannical king, like Biden did 4 years ago, like Trump did 8 years ago, like Obama did 12 years ago. Don't you understand these corrupt people want to rule like kings? Why bother working on legislation with Congress when you can rule by edict if you win the presidential election, right? Donnie is already a lame duck president so the dude (the US does not want a female president) in 4 years will reverse all the executive orders he signs on Monday afternoon. It is nauseating. It is the filthy crony capitalism system now dysfunctional with the debt burden about to crush America like an ant. Thus, the SPX may be up, or down, one hundo points on Tuesday depending on tariffs, deportations and other fun stuff that comes to light on Monday afternoon and evening during the signing of all the executive orders. Donnie should don a gold crown for his orange head, his gold sneakers for his feet, and sit on a royal throne wearing a red velvet robe, as he signs the new proclamations with a feather quill pen. The CPC put/call drops to 0.69 a low comparing back to 2021. Watch your wallet.

Note Added Hump Day Morning, 1/22/25, at 7 AM EST: A new King Donnie Trump rally occurs mimicking the early November rally. That one popped 295 SPX points in 5 days and the current stock market joy is up 276 SPX points in 6 days. The rampant bullish euphoria announces that the top is at hand so you need to keep watching the shorter term charts (hourly and daily) to call the timing of the top with neggie d. The orange head creates lift in the stock market since he held back on tariffs after his first day in office. On the SPX 2-hour chart, the indicators are topped out with neggie d sans the MACD line, a repeat of yesterday morning before the Donnie joy kicked in. Thus, a jog move, down-up, is likely on tap for the top in the hourly time frame so that puts it at mid-morning to early afternoon for a top. The SPX daily chart remains long and strong after catapulting above the 50-day MA at 5973. A back kiss is needed to show respect to the 50 and make sure up is the actual path ahead. The daily chart likely needs a couple-three days to top out with neggie d. Thus, probably a top in the stock market before or after munchtime today, but after a day or so, stocks should recover for another high. You can check then to see if the daily chart goes fully neggie d to call the top. Independent of looking for the neggie d to set up, the top can be expected at any time due to the rampant complacency. It is a house of cards now so it can collapse at any time. Sssssttt. The fuse grows shorter. The charts tell you what is going on. What Is Love, baby don't hurt me.

Note Added Friday, 1/24/25, at Noon: The Trump Tariff-lite rally plays out this week creating the joyous upside in stocks. The SPX prints a new record all-time high today at 6128.18. King Donnie proclaims that interest rates shall be dropped, by his decree, pointing a finger at Pope Powell. Equities go wild since easy money conditions to make the wealthy more filthy rich will continue undeterred. Alas, nothing else has changed. We are in the bubbles of all bubbles and it is not Tiny Bubbles, as Don would sing. You get bonus points if you can sing it in the Hawaiian language. Olelo Hawai'i. Thus, you know this is a substantive top occurring now and still waiting for the charts to set-up with neggie d so the top can be called. The 2-hour chart has been trying to set-up all week and it finally got there this morning. The Trump bump kept pushing the SPX price up so it took extra time for the indicators to roll over. The SPX daily chart, however, continues showing long and strong RSI, MACD and money flow. Thus, the negativity on the hourly basis, now, is only likely for a day or two because the daily chart wants another price high on the daily basis. The daily chart remains a couple days or so away from the top from a technical basis. Remember, however, this house of cards can collapse at any time due to the rampant fearlessness verified by the multi-year lows in the put/call ratios. Maybe Black Monday? If the daily needs a down-up (2 days), or a down-up-down-up (4 days), for the indicators to go completely neggie d on the daily chart, that would place the top sometime next week probably by Friday. She is ripe and the Trump bump should be played-out. If you are a novice trader holding longs, and you are bragging to pretty Emily, the new administrative assistant at the office, that you are the modern-day Jesse Livermore, you better sell all your longs and let that cash sit there in your brokerage account for a few weeks. Otherwise, you will experience the bad side of Jesse's exploits where he lost a lot of money and Emily will give you the cold shoulder refusing to ever date a man that did not understand the obvious neggie d and rampant complacency. The Trump Tariff-lite rally extends the top for a few days. The rampant complacency remains and now foreign traders, unhappy with their sick economies and stock markets around the world, are pouring money into the US stock market. It is funny. The bubble grows bigger and bigger, bigger than King Donnie's ego, and is about to burst. The obscene money printing at the Federal Reserve made America's wealthy class filthy rich over the last 15 years and their non-stop consumer spending is the reason the economy has held up and the pending recession has developed into the Godot Recession. Alas, services inflation is starting to show a preference for dropping which means the wealthy are finally not spending as much money anymore. What do you think happens next? It will be fun. Highway to Hell. Party time.

Note Added Sunday Evening, 1/26/25, at 7:43 PM EST: S&P futures are down -40 points. That is interesting. The dollar is stronger by a hair. USD 107.58. Dollar up, futures down. Bitcoin 101.5K. 

Note Added Sunday Evening, 1/26/25, at 8:01 PM EST: S&P futures are down -50 points. 

Note Added Monday Morning, 1/27/25, at 5:50 AM EST: Dollar moves above and below the flat line overnight now down a hair to 107.29. S&P futures are down at session lows crashing -157 points or -2.6%. The Nazzy futures are off -4.6%. Don't you love the smell of napalm in the morning? Bring in the airships boys, pull your units back sergeants, time to light it up like a birthday cake. Here they come. The AI stocks are collapsing because a DeepSeek outfit in China has produced AI results with technology currently available. Just think of all the billions spent (wasted?), and the commitments to the power industry even nuclear to support AI, and a guy in his basement may have a better solution. It is hilarious. NVDA -13%. META -5%. MSFT -7%. AVGO -13%. PLTR -10%. The Trump tariff threat to Colombia, that has been reversed overnight, also has markets reeling. The VIX pops above 20 to 20.63. The 10-year yield drops -11 bips to 4.51% as traders seek the perceived safety of notes and bonds (bond prices run higher on the demand so yields collapse lower). Remember, don't panic! Don't panic!!.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 1/28/25, at 5:34 AM EST: USD 107.88. The SPX loses 89 points yesterday, -1.5%, to 6012. The Nazzy Comp and Nazzy 100 both collapse -3.%. Everyone is in a tizzy over the DeepSeek artificial intelligence in China. If the new AI technology was discovered in India, it would have been called DeepSikh. 

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips back to the long side yesterday morning at SPX 5920. The whipsaw choppy slop of 2025 is nauseating. Both bulls and bears are getting chewed-up and spit out. Bulls need stronger retail stocks to continue the party while the bears need higher volatility, and weaker banks and chips, to take the stock market ball back.

Keybot the Quant

GOOGL Alphabet (Google) Weekly Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Tweezer Top

Google, er Alphabet, is a darling of traders and investors over the last few years and as other top tech stocks falter, traders squeeze into GOOGL further stretching the Alphabet balloon to the size of the Hindenburg. What is the first thing that jumps out at you when looking at the GOOGL weekly chart? Yes, the Tweezer Top. The two candlesticks 3 weeks apart spike higher intraweek producing the long upper shadows for the candlesticks that look like a pair of tweezers. The pattern typically marks a top and conversely, a Tweezer Bottom will identify a bottom.

The red lines show higher highs in price since summer and the Tweezer Top are matching record highs. The highs in price, however, come with neggie d, so a smackdown is in order going forward and a multi-week pullback. Soon, people will be googling to find out why Google stock is dropping. At least it will always be its own verb.

Price pierces the upper standard deviation band so the middle band at 172 and lower band at 147 are on the table. Price held the 50-wk MA in September and when she falls going forward will test the 50 again at 166. Note the strong price support in that 162-165-ish area. The 150 level is also strong price support.

GOOGL is expected to drop into a multi-week down move from here. The 162-165 support is a good target below for the weeks ahead and if that fails, 150 is likely. Keystone is not holding GOOGL long or short currently but obviously the play is short going forward. We will see if the Tweezer Top facilitates the neggie d spankdown.

A lot of these high-flying tech stocks are headquartered, or have major divisions, in California where the wild fires remain out of control due to modern-day human incompetence and inept management. California is the land of fruits and nuts, that are now roasted. There is no joy today, down at Palisades Park. I gave that girl a hug, in the tunnel of love. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Wednesday, 1/22/25, at 8:47 AM EST: Everything rallies on King Donnie taking office and GOOGL pops to a new record high at 202.29. The Tweezer Top bows to the orange head. There is the short-term Donnie momo but the neggie d remains on the weekly. She likely needs a few days to set up again with a top and would be expected to roll over lower to begin a multi-week slide.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 1/28/25: GOOGL 191.

NVDA NVIDIA Weekly Chart; Negative Divergence; Price Extended and Topped-Out

NVIDIA and CEO Emperor Jensen remain the central focus of attention in this new hyped-up artificial intelligence age. There is lots of talk of AI agents. Agent, schmagent. The only agent you need to groove to is the Secret Agent Man with its unmistakable intro riff. Beware those pretty AI faces that you find. Some folks would sing, "Secret Asian Man."

Keystone posted a prior NVDA daily chart showing a H&S pattern in play with neck at 132. Price fell through to126 but quickly recovered on more AI hype news and Jensen waving chips in the air. That general pattern is still in play only now it is a double-headed, Quasimodo, pattern. With head at 153 and neckline at, let's call it 133, where price is at now, 133-136, the downside target is 120 if the 133 fails.

The NVDA weekly chart above is toast, due to the neggie d, and last week started a -6% pullback. The red rising wedge was bearish and all chart indicators were negatively diverged (sloping down while price continued higher), so you knew the top was in, and it was. There was no reason for price to come up again for a matching high since a multi-week slide should take place. NVDA was soft for a couple months but as soon as Jensen was waving more AI chips in the air, traders trip over each other to buy for fear of missing out on this miraculous miracle called AI (arrogant ignorance).

NVDA price comes back up to test the record high and promptly falls on its sword. The dark maroon lines show that the chart indicators remain weak and bleak, and neggie d since price makes a matching high, so another spankdown is expected and occurs last week. The chart is ugly so lots of downside would be expected moving forward.

Watch the RSI and stochastics 50% levels since that will mark a shift from bull territory to bear territory. The 20-wk MA is 132.59, again, highlighting this key support level. Take a purple crayon, Keystone likes purple crayons because they taste like grapes, and draw a thick line across the 132-136 level. If you are bullish NVDA, and price falls below 132-136, that is when you begin losing big chunks of your money on your way to 110-120, and perhaps 80 as the months play out.

Price is extended above the moving average ribbon so a mean reversion lower would be in order. The pink box for the ADX shows that the strong trend higher for NVIDIA is over; it ended in September/October. The Aroon is a hoot. The green line shows that 100% of the bulls, every single NVDA bull, believes that NVDA stock will go up forever. Comically, the red line indicates that about 90% of the NVDA bears also believe that the stock will go up forever. Emperor Jensen is throwing a huge boring party for bulls and bears alike on one side of the boat. Attendees take turns bending knee for Jensen, kissing the ring, and then kissing and bowing to the new AI Blackwell superchip, that appears to be running very warm. Keystone is on the other side of the boat turning up the amps with Story of My Life. Do you want to have fun or lose your money in NVDA?

Take your profits and move on from NVDA. The 110-120 level is likely on tap by the end of the month or early February. The AI company reports yearnings on 2/19/25 so if the stock is soggy until then, that will probably bring it back to life. Note the two purple arrows showing the tight squeeze on the standard deviation bands. A tight squeeze predicts that a huge price move will occur but does not predict direction. In the above example, the tight squeeze shot price to the upside so you knew that would continue in early 2024.

Looking at a monthly chart, it is not pretty. What do you expect for a stock that went from pocket change to 136 bucks in only 9 years? That is impressive and made a lot of people millionaires and Emperor Jensen a billionaire. Alas, all good things come to an end. The chart indicators on the NVDA monthly chart are neggie d with the MACD line flattish moving a hair higher. There is a lot of month left so the MACD may drop to be flat or lower, which would lock in the universal neggie d and call the long-term multi-month top for NVDA. If the MACD remains that tiny hair higher through January, NVDA will likely perform a jog move, down-up, before topping-out long-term in the February-April time frame. Either way, it is coming, and it is very likely that NVIDIA is making its long-term top right now and Emperor Jensen will be singing a swan song for the share price instead of waving another AI chip in the air.

Keystone is not holding NVDA long or short currently but the obvious play going forward is short. Keep tight mental stops since a hyped-up stock like this still has a lot of stupid buyers including Joe Sixpack and Carlos Bagholder. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday, 1/14/25, at 6:00 PM EST: NVDA 132.

Note Added Wednesday, 1/22/25, at 8:51 AM EST: Everything rallies on King Donnie taking office and NVDA tries to hold on by its fingernails now recovering up to 141 above the 50-day MA at 139.64. The 20-day MA is 137.79. The bulls continue defending the 130-135 support with all their might. The 138-140 moving average support is key because if it fails, next stop is 130, and then likely the failure, and the multi-week move lower begins. Emperor Jensen is still figuring out the overheating problem with the AI chips but in the meantime he is frying an egg on top of the chips before the coolant loop is installed.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 1/28/25: NVDA 118. LOD 116.25

Note Added Thursday Morning, 1/30/25: NVDA 123.70.

CRB Commodities Index Daily Chart; Goods Inflation Moving Higher

Inflation is a hot topic these days. King Donnie proclaims that he will slay the Bidenflation dragon and deliver lower prices to the huddled masses. Americans want action not words so chop, chop, orange head. The Fed and others are concerned about inflation heating-up in the near-term. If inflation begins running higher, the Fed will not want to cut rates anymore but that will create further selling in stocks since the easy money punch bowl will be taken away.

Inflation is made up of the goods and services components. For decades, the two track each other well and where one went the other followed and visa versa, like your shadow. The COVID-19 pandemic turned this relationship asunder. Since everyone was isolating from one another, except for the Amazon driver that enters Miss Summer's house and does not reappear for 20 minutes, so services inflation fell off a cliff. There were no services. No travel, no concerts, no nothing.

Then, as the covid pandemic subsided, people were champing at the bit to travel again and do fun things so services inflation shot to the moon. Goods inflation also ran higher as people tried to return to normal in 2022. Inflation peaked in May/June 2022. The CRB is starting to climb to levels that are comparable to inflation running up into the May/June 2022 peak; not good.

Over the last couple months, services inflation data hints that it may be subsiding and coming back into normalcy. After all, how many times can you fly to Europe or Japan on vacation? Or visit Disneyland? Or see the Rolling Stones in concert, er Rolling Fossils? Or go whitewater rafting in West Virginia? But as services inflation started to subside and move lower to join the more tame goods inflation, bingo, old guys say bingo a lot, the goods inflation now runs higher like a banshee.

The black circle is the death cross and the gold circle now shows a golden cross in play with CRB going to the moon. Commodities are inflating and flying higher. Up, Up and Away. Honey, take a ride on my big beautiful balloon. CRB runs higher from 265 to 306, a big 41-point gain, or +15.5%, in only 4 months. CRB is rising at +4% per month for the last 4 months; or +1% per week for the last 4 months. No wonder food and other prices are not going down. Keystone asked the clerks at the local grocery store if they sell meat on an installment plan. Nancy, the battleaxe that is in charge of the deli counter, pushed her hair net to one side, and told him to go eat spam.

The rise in the CRB, GTX, DBA and other commodity tickers over the last month or so is stealth. As overweight Americans gorged themselves with one more turkey leg, another helping of ham, and slice of pecan pie with Cool Whip topping, they forgot to watch the commodity charts to see that goods inflation is rocketing higher. The move fits in with the economic growth narrative but it could be a false start. Wages, a key component of inflation, are stagnant as the Friday Jobs Report shows, so they will not be adding to further inflation.

America's wealthy, that were made filthy rich by the Fed's 15 years of money printing, have been supporting the economy continuing to spend without worry or fear. This cannot go on forever, and yet it continues. The EOY is an odd time because companies will not can workers during the holidays for fear of looking like Ebenezer Scrooge, so the mass layoffs occur in January. Over the next couple weeks, lots of Americans are going to be called into the boss's office and told their services are no longer required; now hand in your door key and get the hell out.

Keep an eye on commodities. If CRB continues higher verifying an ongoing trend of higher goods inflation, the services inflation will remain status quo (stop coming down), or also head higher, which means headaches for the Fed because rate hikes may be required going forward. Maybe commodities and goods inflation is floating higher because King Donnie is going to deport a lot of the workers in these industries that supply commodities? Prices will rise if workers become scarce. You can pick your own steenkin' fruit and rebuild your own house (California wild fires and Carolina floods).

If you had to guess, this recent move higher in goods inflation is probably a fake-out, and the path forward is not economic growth but rather recession; the missing recession. The Godot Recession remains in play and, unlike the play, it will probably show up this year, so the CRB and goods inflation may be a short-lived event fueled by rich people spending lots of money in Q4. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Wednesday, 1/22/25, at 8:56 AM EST: Everything rallies on King Donnie taking office and CRB catapults to the moon tagging 309. It is an orgy in the cornfield. 

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 1/28/25: CRB 305.34

NYA NYSE Composite Index Weekly Chart; NYA Will Signal Start of a Cyclical Bear Market for US Stocks if it Fails at 40-wk MA at 18800

The NYA has retreated to where life become interesting for the US stock market. Is Daylight Fading? That's a tight band. Keystone's top two signals for the intermediate to longer term, for calling cyclical bull and bear markets, are the SPX 12-month MA cross and the NYA 40-week MA cross.

If NYA loses the 40-wk MA at 18831, the US stock market falls into a cyclical bear market going forward. That puppy dropped to 18941 last week only 110 points away or 0.6%; that is nothing.

The NYA topped-out on 11/29/24, during Thanksgiving dinner, at 20333. The drop to 18963 is a -6.7%, call it -7%, drop, so another -3% would be a -10% correction.

If you remain long the stock market and are cheerleading the SPX 7K and higher calls in the months ahead, your butt cheeks will clench if NYA loses 18.8K, and you will begin losing your shirt. The stock market will hang in there as long as the bulls hold the line at NYA 18.8K and do not let it fail. Lightning Crashes at 18.8K. Isn't it great to see a sea of music fans without any garbage smartphones in sight? Great times. And most of you young idiots walk around all day looking down at a smartphone thinking that you are important. That's funny. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday, 1/14/25: The NYA drops to 18857 yesterday with the 40-wk MA at 18870 but immediately bounces on the test of this critical support that separates a cyclical bull from a cyclical bear. Now you know what to watch going forward. She came down for a whack at support at 18870 to test how strong it might be, and to let everyone know that there will be further tests ahead. The NYA sits at 19177 with Armageddon at 18870 only 307 points away. Maybe 307 points is not far down. Is there something left for you and me? One Last Breath. Stay away from the sauce, Scotty, and use that gift that God gave you.

Note Added Wednesday, 1/22/25, at 8:58 AM EST: Everything rallies on King Donnie taking office and NYA explodes higher to 19894 punching the bears in the face. The critical 40-wk MA is at 18942 and the bulls successfully thwarted-off the failure at the 40 bouncing from a low at 18857 a week ago. The bears were growling and threatening but the bulls smacked them around and maintain control. Bears need about a 1,000 points of downside now so you do not hear much growling anymore. Their day will come. Watch the NYA 40-wk MA going forward.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 1/28/25: NYA 19980. The 40-wk MA is at 19K. The bulls are fending off the bulls.