NYMO McClellan Oscillator and NYA NYSE Composite Daily Charts Signal Stock Market Bottom At Hand

The NYMO, the McClellan Oscillator, is down in the basement expecting a relief rally to begin for the US stock market. The green circles show recent important bottoms all corresponding to the low NYMO readings especially sub -60. It's a Long Way to the Top if you wanna rock 'n roll. It's a lot harder than it looks. The 1960's and 1970's were a music paradise. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 4/9/25: The SPX starts the day soggy dropping to 4835, then King Donnie balks with his trade and tariff war placing the drama on hold for 90 days, so the S&P 500 catapults higher to 5457. Keystone exited the quickie index long trades and is not holding index plays long or short. You cannot pass up those gains made in a day or two. It is time to let the indexes breathe and the smoke to clear. Today's powerful bull move should continue higher in the daily time frame. Ditto the 2-hour time frame so that tells you there is no top on tap for the stock market until perhaps late tomorrow or on Friday. The charts will tell you. But that pullback will only be a day or so since the daily time frame will still be long and strong. A playable top may be a few days ahead, say, the middle of next week as a guess.

CPC and CPCE Put/Call Ratios and SPX S&P 500 Daily Charts; Rampant Panic and Fear Signals Time to Nibble/Buy On Long Side

The bulls and the bears are the yin and the yang of the stock market and the pendulum swings back and forth. Keystone posted the CPC and CPCE put/call ratio charts leading up into the stock market top in February. One of the key giveaways that the US stock market was at a bubble top was the rampant complacency and fearlessness.

Everyday was a bullish orgy of traders buying anything with a heartbeat without fear that stocks will ever go down again. The euphoric optimism was off the charts (low put/calls) further proven by the parade of bullish calls on television and the internet and any bear, if you could find one, would opine fear, but then would be buying stocks 10 minutes later (obviously, not fearful).

That was then and this is now. What did Keystone tell you? Only a few of you remember. That is not good. The rest of you need to put those bongs down. He told you that you have to wait for panic and fear to arrive before you want to nibble on the long side and start to bring on long positions. Honey, we're home.

The snap-back rally in stocks today petered out once King Donnie, King Crybaby, said the 104% tariffs against communist China would proceed tonight at midnight. Stocks gave up the rally and went negative but closed off the lows. It is crazy price action, like you are living in a Cartoon. Time to plug in. 'Look around you'll see, it's a mountain made of sand under me, you're in the movies and I'm in your cartoon'.

S&P futures are down -80 points as this post is typed so traders are clenching their buttocks waiting to see what happens in the final hours. This is the Donnie Trump reality television show Season 2. This is what everyone wants.

The relief rally would have likely stuck today if the China tariff drama was not in play. If futures are down -80, no, check that, now -88 points, perhaps that is about the extent of it. Maybe not since it dropped 8 points in a heartbeat over the last minute. It does not matter. Panic and fear is rampant so it is best to buy shares off the people running from the exchange with their hair on fire.

The China drama likely depends on when the further escalation is announced by the communists. They likely want to tone down the speed of the drama so China may wait for tomorrow or the following day to announce the retaliation plan. If so, stocks should recover tomorrow since all that information is known/expected. If China announces retaliation tonight, minutes after midnight, futures may tank because Xi and Trump will be fighting a cage match of uncertainty.

Anyhoo, putting the baby politics aside, the high put/calls means it is time to take that list of potential longs on your wish list, that you researched the numbers on and studied the charts, and start nibbling for the relief rally. Stocks have collapsed a long way and simply need to recover to catch their breath. The full moon peaks on Saturday and stocks are typically bullish moving through the full moon.

The green circles show key bottoms in the stock market created due to panic and fear. Fancy that. The peaks in panic and fear correspond to the key bottoms when party-time for the bulls will begin again. Tell David Lee to bring in the California Girls. Keystone exited all index shorts on Friday and is now bringing on index longs. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 8:35 PM EST: S&P futures are down -88 as everyone is gathered in the pumpkin patch next to the Rose Garden, waiting for the orange head to appear and belch words of wisdom about the China tariff fiasco.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 4/9/25, at 3:31 AM EST: The S&P futures tanked down -140 points overnight but over the last couple hours come the whole way back to flat. Donnie Trump's Trade and Tariff War continues with the 104% tariff applied to China. So far, the communists have not responded with their retaliation plan. 

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 4/9/25: The SPX starts the day soggy dropping to 4835, then King Donnie balks with his trade and tariff war placing the drama on hold for 90 days, so the S&P 500 catapults higher to 5457. 

USD US Dollar Index Daily and Weekly Charts; Dollar Smile; Daily Chart Set-Up with Possie D

There is lots of attention on the dollar during the Trump Stock Market Crash induced by the Trump Trade and Tariff War. The big drama currently is the bounce or die decision at the 200-week MA at 102.61. USD price is at 102.48 in real-time. The battle continues. Obviously, dollar bulls want the 200 support to hold while the dollar bears want the 200 to fail opening the door to a far lower dollar.

The weekly and monthly charts for the greenback do not tell a lot. Price is stumbling sideways like a drunk in Times Square on Saturday night. There is no predictive value showing in those time frames.

The daily time frame, however, is set-up with positive divergence (green lines). As the year started, the red lines show the rising red wedge pattern (bearish) and the glaring negative divergence. The dollar top and neggie d spankdown was an easy call.

After three months of dollar weakness, the green lines show possie d setting-up for all the chart indicators so she is on the launchpad and fueling-up for a pop higher. The RSI is coming off oversold levels another positive for price moving forward.

The ADX pink box shows that the strong trend higher in the dollar, during the AI orgy and perceived good times in the market and economy, ended in late January. The dollar is now in a strong down trend since the first week of March as the pink box shows. The ADX shows a higher high but it is a lagging and confirmation indicator; not predictive.

The Aroon is comical. Nearly 100% of the dollar bears (red line) believe that the dollar will continue lower forever. At the same time, the green line shows that 100% of the bulls also believe that the dollar will go down forever. That's funny. The Aroon provides a contrarian signal. The boat is completely loaded with bulls and bears alike all on one side of the dollar boat expecting the buck to continue lower. You know what will happen instead.

Thus, the dollar should rally in the daily time frame going forward receiving the possie d rocket launch. The weekly and monthly time frames remain sideways, however, so after a rally in the dollar on the daily basis, price will likely continue chopping sideways through the year.

Keystone does not have any positions in the dollar long or short currently but obviously, a quickie trade going forward would be long the dollar due to the set-up on the daily chart. Watch that 200-wk MA at 102.61 since it will tell you if the gloom scenario occurs. The dollar climbs to 102.74 as Keystone writes this message. Money by Floyd. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 7:38 AM EST: USD 103.05. 

Note Added 8:00 PM EST: USD 103.52. 

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 4/8/25, at 5:39 AM EST: USD 103.35. 

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 4/9/25, at 3:25 AM EST: USD 102.29. The buck comes back down to test the 200-wk MA at 102.61 again. Bounce or die. Price comes down for a matching low and the indicators remain possie d in the daily time frame. Obviously, the news coming across the wires continuously and Donnie Trump's Trade and Tariff War create daily drama.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 4/9/25: The dollar starts the day soggy dropping to 101.84, then King Donnie balks with his trade and tariff war placing the drama on hold for 90 days, so the greenback catapults higher to 103.31 now at 103-ish. Wild day in the markets.

WTIC West Texas Crude Oil Weekly Chart; Descending Triangle Breakdown at 66.66

We don't need no steenkin' oil. King Donnie promotes the 'drill, baby drill' philosophy, but if the demand for oil is waning, as America and elsewhere slide into recession, even faster due to tariff turmoil, oil companies do not want to drill. If you have a steady order backlog of 100 widgets at your company, you do not ramp production up to 300 widgets because they will sit on the shelf. That be stupid. Not in King Donnie's mind.

The economy is likely slipping into recession. It is about time considering the ongoing labor, housing, and manufacturing recessions that have been ongoing for over a year. In the past, this would be the kiss of death for the economy and a recession guaranteed but nowadays chips rule the roost and the last couple years the AI craze was orgy time. At the same time, the wealthy class and upper middle class sycophants that service the wealthy, accumulated vast wealth from the Fed's money printing and have supported the economy, preventing recession, with their spending. The top 10% of wealthy Americans account for one-half of the spending. It is the New Gilded Age.

The prior oil chart in March explained the descending triangle a bearish chart pattern. If it gives way to the downside, like now, with the ominous 66.66 baseline failing, doom and gloom are ahead. The vertical side of the descending triangle typically dictates how far down price will drop if/when the baseline is busted. Commodities are special since they move wildly and as can be seen from the chart, a drop equal to the vertical side will be a trip to zero which will not happen.

Keystone likes to take the first touch in, or second, when charts forecast a crazy result so that would be the middle vertical lines that are 28-33 points. Thus, taking 28-33 away from 67 is the 34 to 39 landing zone now that oil failed at the 66.66 baseline. That is a recession number. No one needs any steenkin' oil or gasoline since they are sitting at home unemployed and taking the boat out on the lake this weekend is out of the question. In fact Carlos and Latisha put a for sale sign on the boat. Franks and beans are for dinner.

The 66.66 took so long to break, and is so important, that a back kiss is needed for price to prove that it wants to collapse. There will likely be some chop ahead and price may recover for the back test, and at that time the bounce or die decision will occur. A continued downward move in oil means recession. Oil falls below 60 a barrel printing a 59-handle (red dot). This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday Morning, 4/7/25, at 7:41 AM EST: WTIC oil is 60.65 off the 58.95 LOD. 

Note Added Tuesday Evening, 4/8/25, at 7:20 PM EST: WTIC oil drops to 57.60 taking out the low from Monday.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 4/9/25, at 3:35 AM EST: Oil drops to a 4-year low at 56.70 now at 58.23. Time to plan a road trip with cheaper gasoline on the way. Keystone drives gas-guzzling vehicles with V-8 engines, not glorified golf carts (EV's), but instead of worrying about miles per gallon, he is concerned about gallons per mile.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 4/9/25: WTIC oil takes a ride to 55.12, then King Donnie balks with his trade and tariff war placing the drama on hold for 90 days, so oil catapults higher to 62.35. Brent oil loses the 60 level but if you blinked, you missed it; price is now at 65.69.

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart

Copper and utilities took the pipe on Friday that caused the US stock market to drive off the cliff. Utilities play a key role in the week ahead. Remember, the two important metrics for utes are the closing price 15 weeks ago and the 50-week MA now at 994.05.

When both of these give-way to the downside, a trap-door opens and the stock market is flushed down the toilet a la Friday. This is serious business because up until Friday, the utilities had not yet failed. Since the utes did not yet fail, it tells you that the stock market should begin a relief rally any time and it likely has legs higher, but the utes then do fail on Friday. Two kids are playing with sticks and Mom yells that yinz will poke each other's eyes out. Well, Friday, little Sammy Stock Market got his eyeball poked-out.

The blue circle shows the 15-wk MA lookback comparison number for the week ahead; 987.26. For the week of 4/14/25, the 987.26 is meaningless and replaced with 1002.25 the purple circle. For the week of 4/21/25, the 1002.25 is meaningless and replaced with 972.25 the brown circle, and so on.

Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot; that is why we are never invited to the fun parties A Million Miles Away from boring calculations that turn minds to mush. Humorously, once you understand advanced math and physics in detail and depth, your brain is twisted into something that is never the same as it used to be. Thus, the 987.26 number is key for the days ahead. Write it on a sticky note and put it on your forehead. The 50-wk MA is also key at 994+.

Let's put together a scenario. Since utes are the last metric that collapsed into bear price action on Friday, it would likely be the first to reverse. Two numbers provide three spaces so you can see how the day/week will shape-up based on the utilities. If UTIL remains below 987.26, the US stock market is toast and the pain, misery and carnage will continue. Short-sellers will dance over the graves of the greedy bulls in the glistening moonlight. There is no hope for US stocks if UTIL remains below 987.26 in the week ahead.

If UTIL regains 987.26, the stock market will stabilize and at least stop going down. If UTIL moves above 994, the relief rally for the stock market will likely be underway. Snap-back rallies can be super sharp, fast, strong, and rip a short-sellers face right off. As shorts scramble to cover, they add jet fuel to any relief rally that occurs launching it into the stratosphere.

Three choices. Pick your poison. She was Poison in the Well, and I drank it. Watch utilities like a hawk on Monday. They will tell you a lot. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Donnie Trump Stock Market Crash Feb-Mar-Apr 2025; King Donnie Crashes the United States Stock Market with the Trump Trade and Tariff War

The SPX, S&P 500 Index, the United States stock market, topped-out on 2/19/25 at 6147.43 the all-time record high, and highest number ever in history, and 6144.15 the all-time record closing high. That was then, and this is now. On 4/4/25, only 32 trading days later, the SPX crashes to a low at 5069.90 and closing low at 5074.08. The drop from 6144 to 5074 is a drop of 1,070 points, or -17.4%. Tech stocks are in bear markets down more than -20% from the tops.

When Keystone called the top due to the out of control euphoric complacency and fearlessness with neggie d on the SPX weekly chart, he forecasted a 200 to 800-point dump and the SPX is down almost 1100 points. That is the "Trump Stock Market Crash of Feb-Mar-Apr 2025" due to the "Trump Trade and Tariff War." What a mess.

Humorously, people that enthusiastically supported and voted for King Donnie have lost a big chunk of their life savings and some will lose their jobs. Too bad. That's life. You are getting what you voted for so go for it If It Makes You Happy as a painted-up Sheryl sings.

Traders were unhappy with the tariff bait and switch the orange head tried to pull. He is using trade balances to calibrate his actions but using tariffs as the mechanism (Trump lies when he says the new US tariffs equate to the other country's tariffs). The tariffs were more imposing than expected creating more stock market negativity. Yesterday morning after the opening bell, communist China (the 90 million making-up the filthy CCP led by Dictator Xi, not the regular 1.4 billion Chinese folks) retaliates with tariffs and stocks go off a cliff.

With the big drop-off in equities, it is time for everyone to start blaming their favorite scapegoat; "Those damn speculators!" Pause for laughter. Keystone is used to the heat and thanks everyone for the dough. Your money had to go somewhere. Sucka's. Keystone told you what would happen and he still had to take your money. You be dumb.

Trump is now pressuring Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to cut rates which will pump the stock market and economy. Inflation is not under control so cutting rates would send inflation to the moon. The US is likely slipping into stagflation a la the late 1970's Jimmy Carter days, high unemployment (recession) and high inflation. If not, the likely path is recession with inflation slowly retreating as the economy collapses and demand falls off a cliff. Fun times. Powell's Back is Against the Wall as Jay and Son Volt sings. Jay sings for Jay.

Trump and his team of economic idiots continue talking bravado with Donnie himself looking like an orange-headed moron tweeting about how everyone in America will be rich as he strips a massive $6 trillion in wealth from the markets last week. King Donnie, donning his paper Burger King hat he got with a happy meal, has created angst and uncertainty in global markets, the kiss of death, and his actions have wiped off $11 trillion in market value since his inauguration on 1/20/25. And he is going to make this money up quickly? That is a joke. The small-handed orange head is dumb.

If you had $100K in your stock portfolio, you now have $80K. That is what you wanted. If you have a tech-heavy portfolio, you have $70K now. Keystone explained the entire topping process in real-time from the end of last year into the 2/19/25 top. You were given water, my friend, but you did not drink.

Just as Nero fiddled as Rome burned, and Bush W read "My Pet Goat" as the Twin Towers were hit on 911 and burned, and Obama played golf as the US economy and foreign policy collapsed and burned, Trump is yucking it up playing golf as America's stock market crashes and economy burns. Such is America's crony capitalism system in its last throes.

Keystone covered all his short index positions on Friday and brought on a few long index bets only as potential quickie trades anticipating a strong snap-back relief rally. The Keybot the Quant robot remains short. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 11:16 AM EST: Treasury Secretary Bessent was on Twitter as SecBessent but it appears that the communication is now skuttled. Trump and crew likely cannot take the heat and do not want to take the criticism for crashing the stock market by -20% and more.

Note Added Sunday Morning, 4/6/25: As would be expected, the democrat-run media (CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, NBC, PBS, NPR, New York Times, Washington Post, etc...) has non-stop weekend coverage of the Trump Trade and Tariff War and the Trump Stock Market Crash. It is doom and gloom and people will lose jobs and protesters take to the streets against the Trump and Musk tag team of economic collapse. Of course, the republican-run media (Fox News, Newsmax, OAN, Breitbart, AM talk radio, New York Post, etc...) is wall-to-wall rosy talk about the bright future ahead because of the orange head's tariffs. Such is America's crony capitalism system gasping its last breaths, tossing and turning in its last throes.

Note Added Sunday Evening, 4/6/25: S&P futures come on line down 2 hundo points so the bloodbath continues. Humorously, the bulls need to invite Jim Grant for an interview on CNBC. Every time there is a stock market selloff, Jim Grant of Grant's Interest Rate Observer appears on CNBC and opines about troubled times ahead. That is when the bottom is in for stocks. It is no diss on Jim, he is brilliant. Comically, the bulls are on their knees this evening praying for Jim Grant to show up at the stock exchange tomorrow. Trump, Powell at the Fed, and dirtbag Dictator Xi that controls China and the PBOC, can stop the stock market carnage with promises of support and stimulus but all three are as quiet as church mice.

Keybot the Quant Whipsaws Back to the Short Side after King Donnie Starts the Global Trump Trade and Tariff War

The Keystone Speculator's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, whipsaws back to the short side this morning, as expected after the tariff fail, at SPX 5488. A bloody day was on tap and it did not disappoint. King Donnie, donning his Burger King paper hat, kicks-off the Trump Trade and Tariff War liberating Americans from their money. That is why it is called liberation day.

Watch copper and commodities. Bears win with weaker copper that will tank the stock market further. Bulls can stop the stock market selling, and bleeding, with stronger commodities. Bears need CPER below 29.65 and the Wall Street blood will flow like water. Bulls need GTX above 3728 to stabilize the stock market and begin hoping for a relief rally.

Keybot the Quant

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish Today but King Donnie Kicks-Off Global Trade and Tariff War Crashing Markets

Keystone's trading algorithm, Keybot the Quant, flips bullish before lunch time today at SPX 5656 but the timing is bad since King Donnie unleashes his Trade and Tariff War against the world. It is a mess. Protectionism extended the Great Depression in the 1930's. S&P futures are down a couple hundo points about -3.5% so tomorrow will be a bloody Black Thursday if the futures do not improve. Keybot the Quant will likely flip back to the short side tomorrow if the mayhem plays out.

Keybot the Quant

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's trading algorithm, Keybot the Quant, flips to the bear camp on Friday morning at SPX 5643. The critical bull/bear lines in the sand and demarcation into a cyclical bear market environment is NYA 19335 and SPX 5662. Once these failed, it was lights out. Sayonara. Then XLF 49.76 failed so it was time for Willie to sing that The Party's Over.

Keybot the Quant

CPC Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart; Traders Remain Complacent, Euphoric and Fearless Despite Stock Market Selloff; More Pain On the Way

It is fun watching this market behavior that is one for the record books. Despite the one-month selloff in stocks, it is as if it never happened, traders and investors remain bigtime bullish ready to buy any dip. It is hilarious . Human greed knows no bounds. The bull party is never-ending as the low put/calls verify. It is midnight and the band has to wrap things up but the crowd will not stop groovin'. Million Miles Away. The chicks are swinging and dancing to the beat and do not want the stock market fun to end.

This bull party continues with traders buying any stock with a heartbeat singing and dancing despite the -7% drop in the SPX and loss of -10% and more in the Nazzy indexes. This is when everyone is too liquored-up and the haymakers start flying.

Since the complacency and fearlessness will not subside, the pain level is going to be turned up to 11, a la Spinal Tap. You dummies will have to pay with more stock market losses until you feel panic in your mind and heart. Keystone loves to see the panic and fear in the eyes as he takes the shares away and delivers the heads on a platter. It is fun. People need taught a lesson and brought to heel because they remain too complacent about the stock market; the selling pressure will continue.

In the prior CPC put/call ratio charts when Keystone was calling the top in February, a 200 to 800-point drawdown was expected and it was about 650 points (so far); not too shabby. The bag holders are still shocked they lost -30% of their money over the last month. One idiot said everyone on television said to buy in late February; he did and got hosed. It was a pump and dump, moron. The institutions were distributing shares to you, the sucka, so you can hold the bag. Keystone told the losers to go home and ask Mommy and Daddy for more money and come back and play again. Sucka's. Every stock market needs sucka's.

The last tradeable bottom was November and that low in the SPX was not breached until 10 days ago. The green circles show the bottoms; only one measly bottom due to panic and fear. Those other bottoms occurred due to euphoric bullish traders anxious to buy dips. We may have to go down another 650 points before you are taught a lesson. Would you like that? Well, we are going to go down due to the complacency it is only a question of how much.

Watch the SPX weekly chart. It will form positive divergence over the coming weeks and enable you to call the bottom. It will be interesting to see if it is a tradeable bottom like November with rampant fear and panic (when you want to buy) or if it is another cheesy bottom like the garbage shown above.

The red circles show the tops for the stock market due to the rampant fearlessness and euphoria. Traders must pay with their hides until they kneel in fear and panic, and then a true relief rally with legs will occur. The SPX weekly chart may potentially set up with possie d in 2 to 3 weeks. You do not have to guess; simply watch the chart and it will set up with positive divergence going forward and you can call the bottom on the weekly basis. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 3/25/25, at 5:12 AM EST: Wheee! Whoopie! The bulls refuse to stop partying. Everyday is fun and frolic with zero worries that the stock market can ever go down again. It is fun to watch. The put/calls drop like rocks as the SPX catapults 100 points higher after King Donnie proclaims that the tariffs will be lessened. The orange head balked with all his bravado tariff and trade talk over the last couple months. The charts verify that the minute he was elected, commodities ran higher, this is goods inflation, that accounted for the overall inflation buoyancy over the last 4 months. The current on-month data shows inflation subsiding a hair; of course it is because commodities, goods inflation, is pulling back after the 4-month run higher from November. Look at a chart, idiots. Service inflation is bumping along flat so the behavior in goods (commodities) dictates the path of overall inflation going forward. The orange light bulb went off in Donnie's head finally realizing it is the Trump Trade and Tariff War that causes the inflation. Donnie waters down the tariff talk and voila, the stock market rallies and talk of inflation subsides. The CPC drops to 0.76, and CPCE is down to 0.48, on the big up day for equities yesterday with traders and investors becoming MORE complacent and fearless about the stock market. Par-tay! Rock n Roll All Nite and party every day. You folks really need taught a harsh lesson, don't you? This is epic behavior hinting that we are in a major top (the long term SPX monthly chart is topped-out or will be within 2 months) probably far more significant than the dotom bubble of 1999-2002 or the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Perhaps King Donnie, donning his paper crown he got with his Burger King meal, will provide a twofer, becoming the modern-day Neville Chamberlain (World War III) and modern-day Herbert Hoover (Great Depression redux)? It is fascinating watching the final throes of America's crony capitalism system. The next decade will be nutso.

Note Added Saturday, 3/29/25: The SPX mini-crashes on Friday losing 112 points, -2%, dropping to 5581. Of course it did. There is finally a wee bit of fear coming into the stock market. If you keep beating folks, eventually they realize that it is unpleasant, starting to hurt, and they want it to stop. The CPC and CPCE put/calls move higher as expected with the mini-crash but are still not in the all-out capitulative panic mode. Is that on tap next week with a Black Monday or Black Tuesday or Black Wednesday? King Donnie's tariff day is Wednesday, 4/2/25, when the Trump Trade and Tariff War kicks into high gear, so that would be interesting if Trump flushes the US stock market down the toilet on hump day. The important low from 3/13/25 is 5505. The real trouble and mayhem begins below 5505, should it occur.

NVDA NVIDIA Daily Chart; Death Cross

The NVDA death cross was all the rage yesterday on business television and the internet. A death cross! Oh no! Hide the women and children! Anything but the death cross! All hope is lost! Calm down. Don't panic. The death cross is only one arrow in the technical quiver.

The death cross occurs when the 50-day moving average (MA) crosses down through the 200-day MA forecasting troubling bearish times and destruction ahead. Conversely, the golden cross is when the 50 pierces up through the 200 to signal happy days and rainbows and puppy dogs ahead. Neither is quite the case because the media does not understand the behavior of the crosses.

When a death cross occurs, it comes after many weeks and months of soggy prices that must roll the 50-day MA over and to the downside to set its sights on the 200. This takes time so typically when the death cross occurs, price bounces. The key is whether price remains below the 50 because, by definition, the 50 can only be dragged lower, and continue its slope lower, if price remains below the 50.

Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why we are never invited to parties, NVDA already begins bouncing before the death cross occurs. It makes sense since price is trending down for this year after those November and early-year highs. Price is stumbling sideways trying to regain its footing after the beat-down from Valentine's Day to early March. Talk about a jilted lover. Paul at Hyde.

The 50-day MA is 127 and dropping. Both the 50 and 200-day MA's are important so back kisses would be expected going forward. Very simply, when price comes up to back test the downward-falling 50-day MA, probably around 122-125, it will have to make a bounce or die decision. If price continues below the 50-day MA, the death cross remains valid and NVDA will be sick for many weeks forward. If NVDA pops back above the 50-day MA, the stock will stabilize, and then you can watch to see if the golden cross occurs in a few weeks to steer the chip ship around.

The daily chart hints that some additional upward buoyancy will occur with price perhaps to 122-125-ish. The weekly chart hints at a lot of sideways slop and chop ahead. The monthly chart, sorry to say for AI fanboys, is busted for NVDA. Based on the charts now, the path forward will be choppy sideways slop with a consistent downward bias probably through spring and summer into Fall. Thus, the death cross will probably maintain itself for a while.

The AI hype is rampant with daily promises of grandeur and yet no delivery of firm hard solid goods and examples exactly detailing how much money was saved. AI is keeping the softward engineers employed, at least for now. AI will allow call centers to can more employees and make your telephone experience even worse.

Will the billions in investment in AI chips and manhours prove worthwhile, or will companies be left holding the AI chip bag, only left to fry eggs on the overheating chips? The new chip will be called rubin after the scientist but what do you think of when you hear rubin? Of course, a reuben sandwich. Yuck. Nasty. It is an acquired taste. Some folks will crawl over crushed glass for a reuben sandwich but Keystone will pass on that and go with a BLT instead. Concerning the new reuben, er, rubin chip, people may take it or leave it like the sammich.

Keystone is not trading NVDA long or short currently. There is not much of a trade there long or short right now. Perhaps wait for the daily chart to move higher and form neggie d and that would be a potential area for a short; use the 2-hour to enter that if it becomes available. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday, 3/30/25: NVDA drops to 109.67. The prior low is 3/11/25 at 104.76. If 104.76 is lost, price is likely headed to the 75-95 landing zone.

Note Added Monday, 4/7/25: NVDA 94.31. 

US COVID-19 Infection Waves (New Cases Per Day) -- Content Sample of Soon-To-Be Published "Coronavirus Chronology" Books

Everyone is glad the COVID-19 pandemic is in the rearview mirror. Keystone continues preparing the Coronavirus Chronology books for publication. Writing the Coronavirus Chronology was a labor of love and done as a service to the United States of America. Keystone wrote for 4 to 6 hours per day, 7 days per week, for 3 years (2020-2023) chronicling each day of the COVID-19 pandemic. Paraphrasing Trotsky, Keystone was not interested in chronicling the pandemic, but the pandemic was interested in him.

The text is 1.2 million words the size of two War and Peace novels. In addition, Keystone provided nearly 1,000 COVID-19 infection charts for all the US states and countries around the world typically during the worst times of their infection waves. The Coronavirus Chronology will serve as the official historical document of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Any research on the pandemic or deep dive into details about the coronavirus saga should begin with the Coronavirus Chronology. The following books will probably be published this year;

Coronavirus Chronology Volume 1 Waves 1 through 4; Coronavirus Chronology Volume 2 Waves 5 and 6; Coronavirus Chronology Volume 3 Waves 7a, 7b and 8; Coronavirus Chronology Overview; Coronavirus Chronology Conclusions; Coronavirus Chronology Endemic Phase February 2023 to 2025; Coronavirus Chronology Timeline 2019 through 2025.

The infection wave chart above for the US daily new cases shows the 8 pandemic waves with wave 6 the worst. The world's daily new cases chart displays 10 waves during the pandemic. It is quite a saga and the only place where the whole sordid tale exists is the Coronavirus Chronology.

Keystone wrote 104 articles during the pandemic spaced at 10-day intervals. After each article was published on The Keystone Speculator blog, updates were provided for each day between each article. You have to be crazy to dedicate 3 years to such a task but Keystone knew it was important work that no one else would do, so he did it, and a little Asperger's high-concentration helps, too.

The chart above is posted to show that the Coronavirus Chronology is unmatched as the official document of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is especially impressive since Keystone had to number the infection waves as they occurred in real-time.

If anyone is currently researching anything concerning the COVID-19 pandemic, and you know what date the event or research item occurred, simply look it up at The Keystone Speculator blog in the archives in the right margin. For example, if you want to know what Dr Fauci said in a speech in May 2021, simply go back in the archives and find that Coronavirus Chronology article in that time frame and it will tell you everything you need to know about what Fauci said and then your research can branch out from there.

Keystone is reading through the entire saga and is about at the halfway point. It is amazing how much you can forget about the heinous pandemic; maybe we do not want to remember.

But there are plenty of funny anecdotal stories, too. For example, when the new Botswana/South Africa B11529 variant was identified as extremely serious, and the WHO needed to give it one of their asinine Greek letter names, the next in line was 'nu' pronounced 'new'. The WHO likely thought that designation would be ridiculed as the "new nu variant" so they went to the next letter that was 'xi'. That was funny because it is dirtbag Dictator Xi's name (communist China) and the WHO did not want to use that letter. So what was the next Greek letter that the WHO chose to call the Botswana/South Africa B11529 variant? Omicron.

The Coronavirus Chronology is the China Virus Bible. It chronicled all the information that you forgot. The Coronavirus Chronology allows you to relive the pandemic from start to finish, if you dare.

The chart above is posted so anyone involved in COVID-19 research can start calling out the 8 infection waves by the same numbers since it all matches the text of the soon-to-be published Coronavirus Chronology.

With a little luck, the first 3 volumes and the 1,000 covid infection charts will likely be published in May, maybe June. Keystone has been retired for a couple of decades and does not want the work to cut into his goof-off time especially since he already dedicated 3 years of his life to properly chronicle the COVID-19 pandemic.

Keystone only wanted the United States to have a proper historical record of the once in a century covid pandemic so he did it himself. Hundreds of thousands of international readers followed the Coronavirus Chronology during the pandemic that is, until Keystone was blacklisted and censored, which is all part of the saga as well.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's proprietary trading algo, Keybot the Quant, flips to the bull side today at SPX 5667. Commodities jump into the bull camp and the cyclical bull/bear lines in the sand, NYA 19295 and SPX 5666, are taken out to the upside by the bulls that give strength to the relief rally. Chairman Powell is on deck for hump day afternoon so the markets are theatrics until the Fed tells everyone how to trade.

Watch VIX 16.89. If stocks rally, but the VIX cannot fall below 16.89, the rally is garbage and will roll over and die. If VIX drops below 16.89, the relief rally in stocks is locked-in and headed higher. Powell is picking up his dovish wings at the cleaners tonight and also his necktie from the last meeting that had a jelly stain from the free buffet.

Keybot the Quant

SPX S&P 500 Weekly Chart

It is comical and standard fare. All the jackasses that did not call the top in the stock market are now calling the bottom--every day. People lost their money because their financial manager did not see the top, but the same fools call the same managers asking them what to do next. The dip-buyers are rabid willing to bet their home on a new rally.

The euphoric bullishness remains off the charts and is especially noticeable since everyone says it is not occurring. Folks may diss the market, but 10 minutes later they are buying stocks. Doesn't any of these idiots look at charts? No, they don't.

The red lines show the Keystone top call. It is nothing fancy or hard to do. Price kept making higher highs but ALL the indicators ran out of gas and began sloping down as price made the new highs. This is called negative divergence and is how you call the tops. Once the neggie d forms, there will be a neggie d spankdown in that timeframe. This is a weekly chart so a multi-week down move was forecasted and occurs.

The selloff is 4 weeks along and again, everybody and his bro are buying the dips, one moron after the other wanting to be the hero. Jesse Livermore they ain't. Look at the chart. What do you see? Nasty. The RSI moves below 50% into bear territory and is weak and bleak. Ditto the stochastics. The MACD, histogram and money flow are also weak and bleak. Sure, stocks are set-up for a relief rally in the very short-term looking at the daily chart, but the weekly chart above tells you that many weeks of weakness remain ahead.

Price has stabbed through the lower standard deviation band so a move back up to the middle band at 5953 is on the table going forward. The selling volume is massive and it is had to imagine how this would ever be overtaken by buying volume in the future. Institutions are locking in profits and leave Joe Sixpack and Carmelita Sucka holding the bag of excrement at the top. Just think of all the television hype since the Fall with one commentator after another pumping and dumping telling you to, "buy, buy, buy!" Well, anyone that chased stocks above 5800 on the hype, and took the shares that the smart money was distributing, got, "hosed, hosed, hosed."

The pink ADX box shows that the strong trend higher in the stock market ended at the end of last summer around Labor Day. That is another tell of a top. The strong trend higher is gone but the index keeps making higher highs; you know something is amiss.

The Aroon red line is humorous. Another reason for the top, Keystone discussed all this in prior charts when he was calling the top, was that all the bears were 100% bullish on stocks just like the bulls. That was funny. Now the red line spikes to 100% so all the bears are finally bearish again. Equally funny, is the Aroon green line that shows the bulls have not budged an inch. As discussed at the start or this post, the bulls remain super bullish even though the stock market is off about -7% from the record high. The bulls still need taught a lesson because there is no fear in the market. Stocks need to be bludgeoned until the bulls panic so the beatings will continue until moral improves.

The CPC put/call verifies the ongoing uber bullishness in the stock market despite the collapse in equity prices. The CPCE, however, did spike into panic and fear, for one day, creating the runway for the Friday stock market orgy, but is now down in complacent territory again. There are many metrics verifying that the bulls simply remain too bullish so additional spanks, smacks, and slaps are needed on the weekly basis.

The daily chart is set-up with some positive divergence and stocks need at least a dead-cat bounce to catch their breath. The fall from grace has been impressive. Fed Chairman Powell speaks on Wednesday so stocks will likely be in a holding pattern until he flaps either his dovish or hawkish wings and dictates how traders should trade. Typically, stocks are up 80% of the time on Tuesday and Wednesday into the Fed drama.

Happy St Patty's Day. It is springtime so Keystone is letting that famous Irishman, Pat-i-o Furniture, out of the shed. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 3/22/25: The SPX 50-week MA is the 5665 palindrome and the critical SPX 12-month MA, that separates a cyclical bull market from a cyclical bear market, is the ominous 5666. Monday above, Tuesday below, Wednesday above, Thursday below, Thursday above, Thursday below, Friday above. The week ends at SPX 5668.The stock market is spinning round like Natalie singing Hey Jack Kerouac. In the last minute of trading for the week, the market makers push the S&P 500 up over the major 5665-5666 demarcation line parking it there for the weekend. Of course they do. The saga will continue next week. This was the action all week long and yet not one talking head on the internet or television highlighted this drama. They simply do not know what to watch. If you are long the market, and the SPX slips back below 5665 and trends lower, you will lose a lot of money as the cyclical bear growls.

Note Added Sunday, 3/30/25: SPX drops to 5581. The prior low is 5505. Bad things would happen below 5505. 

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; 150-Day MA Potentially Rolling Over to Usher-In a Cyclical Bear Market

One of the key stock market indicators for a cyclical bull market versus a cyclical bear market is the slope of the SPX 150-day MA. If the 150-day is sloping higher, it is a cyclical bull market, like now, and if the moving average slopes lower, it is a a cyclical bear market. Last week, the 150-day MA is starting to flatten in preparation of rolling over.

By definition, the 150-day MA cannot slope lower unless price is below the moving average pulling it lower like a lead anchor. That is happening now. Price is down at 5639 way below the 150-day MA at 5839, two hundo points below, so it continues to pull and tug the 150 lower.

Thus, the stock market remains in a cyclical bull market as per the slope of the SPX 150-day MA but watch it like a hawk since the 150-day MA may roll over and start sloping lower which would usher-in a cyclical bear market.

The critical SPX 12-mth MA cross and NYA 40-wk MA cross metrics have both failed ushering in a cyclical bear market. The slope of the 150-day MA does not yet join the party. Come on, little girl, have some fun with the bears. So Caught Up In You, little girl.

Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why we are never invited to parties, you can verify if the stock market has fallen into a cyclical bear market pattern by following the 3 metrics mentioned. If the SPX-12-mth MA cross and NYA 40-wk MA cross turn bullish reversing the cyclical bear back into a cyclical bull market and join the 150-day MA that starts sloping higher again, the future is bright for stocks that will rally to new highs. Bulls will be saved. It seems like a stretch.

If the SPX 12-mth MA cross and NYA 40-wk MA cross remain in the cyclical bear market pattern (see the other charts), and the 150-day MA shown above rolls over lower, it is all over but the crying. The cyclical bear market will be confirmed going forward and the carnage will deepen on Wall Street. It looks like the easier path, but Fed Chairman Powell speaks Wednesday so anything can happen.

If you are a bull long the stock market, you need to get on your knees and pray for the SPX to run above 5839 and the SPX 150-day MA to start sloping higher to give you salvation and save your sorry arse. If you are long, and the SPX 150-day MA flattens (like now) and rolls over lower, to join the already negative SPX 12-mth MA cross and NYA 40-wk MA cross, you are going to lose boatloads of money.

After all these many months, the bulls may finally be breaking down. Foggy Mountain Breakdown with humble Master Scruggs holding court. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 3/22/25: The SPX 50-week MA is the 5665 palindrome and the critical SPX 12-month MA, that separates a cyclical bull market from a cyclical bear market, is the ominous 5666. Monday above, Tuesday below, Wednesday above, Thursday below, Thursday above, Thursday below, Friday above. The week ends at SPX 5668.The stock market is spinning round like Natalie singing Hey Jack Kerouac. In the last minute of trading for the week, the market makers push the S&P 500 up over the major 5665-5666 demarcation line parking it there for the weekend. Of course they do. The saga will continue next week. This was the action all week long and yet not one talking head on the internet or television highlighted this drama. They simply do not know what to watch. If you are long the market, and the SPX slips back below 5665 and trends lower, you will lose a lot of money as the cyclical bear growls. The 150-day MA at 5848 continues sloping slightly higher but the longer that price remains below 5848, it will pull the 150-day MA down and likely flatten it, and roll it over to the downside, creating cyclical bear market pain going forward. Keep watching it.

Note Added Sunday, 3/30/25: SPX drops to 5581. The prior low is 5505. Bad things would happen below 5505. The 150-day MA is flattening and just took a slight dip lower at 5852. You are watching the conception of a cyclical bear market going forward.

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; 12-Mth MA Fails Ushering-In Cyclical Bear Market

 

One of the key stock market indicators for a cyclical bull market versus a cyclical bear market is the SPX 12-month MA cross. Last week, the SPX collapses through the 12-month MA at 5663 to a low at 5504 and price ended the week at 5639, below the 12-mth MA, ushering-in a cyclical bear market.

If you are a bull long the stock market, you need to get on your knees and pray for SPX 5663 and higher to give you salvation and save your sorry arse. If you are long, and the SPX remains below 5663 trending lower, you are going to lose a lot of money.

After all these many months, the bears tell the bulls Goodbye to You. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 3/22/25: The SPX 50-week MA is the 5665 palindrome and the critical SPX 12-month MA, that separates a cyclical bull market from a cyclical bear market, is the ominous 5666. Monday above, Tuesday below, Wednesday above, Thursday below, Thursday above, Thursday below, Friday above. The week ends at SPX 5668.The stock market is spinning round like Natalie singing Hey Jack Kerouac. In the last minute of trading for the week, the market makers push the S&P 500 up over the major 5665-5666 demarcation line parking it there for the weekend. Of course they do. The saga will continue next week. This was the action all week long and yet not one talking head on the internet or television highlighted this drama. They simply do not know what to watch. If you are long the market, and the SPX slips back below 5665 and trends lower, you will lose a lot of money as the cyclical bear growls.

Note Added Sunday, 3/30/25: SPX drops to 5581. The prior low is 5505. Bad things would happen below 5505. 

NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart; 40-Wk MA Fails Ushering-in Cyclical Bear Market

One of the key stock market indicators for a cyclical bull market versus a cyclical bear market is the NYA 40-week MA cross. Last week, the NYA collapses through the 40-week MA at 19259 to a low at 18818 and price ended the week at 19231, below the 40-wk MA, ushering-in a cyclical bear market.

If you are a bull long the stock market, you need to get on your knees and pray for NYA 19259 and higher to give you salvation and save your sorry arse. If you are long, and the NYA remains below 19259 trending lower, you are going to lose a lot of money.

After all these many months since the October 2023 bottom, it is time for Deliverance. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 3/22/25: The NYA remains above the critical 40-wk MA at 19300 that separates a cyclical bull market from a cyclical bear market. The bulls are Stayin' Alive. Great walking music for the NYC streets as you ponder the fate of the markets.

Note Added Sunday, 3/30/25: NYA fails at the 40-wk MA at 19335. Bad things will happen if NYA remains below 19335. It is the conception of a cyclical bear market. 

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; Utes Testing the 50-Wk MA Trap-Door at 986

The bulls are standing over the trap-door at the gallows once again. The UTIL 50-wk MA at 985.68 is a key metric for the stock market; call it 985.50-985.70. If price fails at this level, the trap-door opens and the US stock market falls into Hades. Since it has been teasing the trap-door open and shut in recent days, if it fails, it may lock itself into the downside this time.

The fate of the stock market is in the hands of the utes. If UTIL can bounce from here and stay away from the trap-door, and begin to trend higher, the stock market pullback is a run of the mill pullback and should not be a big deal. It does not mean a relief rally will start immediately, just that the rally is on the come and the dire scenario of Armageddon will be avoided.

If UTIL fails at 985.60-ish, it is over. The trap-door will fling open and the stock indexes will be hung, then tossed into Hades and then dragged through the firey pits. That does not sound pleasant. Stop Draggin' My Heart Around. If the trap-door opens, the stock market has a long way lower ahead.

Choose your poison. If you are one of the consensus, and continue to hold all your longs and proclaiming that stocks will recover, as you wipe beads of sweat off your forehead, and the trap-door opens, you are going to lose a lot of money. Bulls root for utilities. Bears root for utes to collapse. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 3/15/25: UTIL teased failure at 986 but the bulls save the day and keep the trap-door shut, for now. UTIL runs higher to 1010. The broad stock market recovers on Friday. For the week ahead, bulls win bigtime with UTIL 1035.53, while bears will begin a new round of market carnage with UTIL 986. The market makers parked price exactly in the middle.

GOLD Weekly Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended; GOLD HITS ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH ABOVE 3,000

Gold is cooked. Stick a fork in it. Say what? The gold bugs scream, "Blasphemy!" How dare you say the yellow metal is topped out? You must be smoking Acapulco Gold. The yellow metal is everyone's fave. It only goes up, never down. Everybody and his bro, including the Uber driver and Betty, the lady in the purple hair net in the cafeteria, say gold is going to the moon and beyond. The chef and the servers in the cafeteria begin singing, "Gold." The cook is tappin' on the cans.

Everyone can continue fantasizing about gold but the weekly chart above is topped-out and should experience multiple weeks of downside ahead. The only thing that can save gold is positive news of some sort that would hit the wires out of the blue. Otherwise, she is going down.

Fundamental-wise, the global central bankers are hoarding gold and want it in their physical possession probably because they know a Great Depression Redux may be on the horizon. This rabid buying behavior by the world's central bankers has sent gold price skyward. How long can that last? There were many festivals in India in recent weeks and those folks love them some gold so perhaps that also accounts for recent gold buying enthusiasm. You have to keep honey happy with some gold.

Keystone last posted a gold chart to call the top in October. Back then, Fed Chairman Powell's comments created gold buying. That is when the news about central bankers buying pallets of gold bars started to become common knowledge. Gold received the neggie d spankdown in the Fall 2024 but recovered on the central banker gold-buying hype into this year's record top at 2974 only 26 bucks from 3K.

The screen printer already delivered the "GOLD 3K" hats to the exchanges but they are kept inside the cardboard boxes for now. Do you think they will be pulled-out anytime soon? Not for a couple months or so, says the peanut gallery.

All of you should know how to read the chart above by now, otherwise, Keystone has failed in his teachings. The red lines show price making higher or matching highs but the indicators went neggie d. She is out of gas and the last 1-1/2 weeks show a directionless gold price waiting for the shoe to drop (a neggie d smackdown).

The RSI, stochastics and money flow are coming off overbot levels agreeable to a pullback. Price is extended above the moving average ribbon so a mean reversion lower is desperately needed. Gold tags the upper standard deviation band so a move back to the middle band at 2758 and lower band at 2536 are on the table.

The orange circles show that the selling volume 3 weeks ago has outpaced all buying volume going back to the Fall. Price likely wants to come down to that orange area, say 2700-ish, to check that price level since that was the last week with strong buying volume.

The purple arrows show tight bands that forecast huge moves and the gold bulls kept winning the day. Well, the party is over now. Yeah, it's over now. Gold should decline for a few weeks so the remainder of March and into April. The 2600-2760 area may be the first stop and then reassess the charts.

If good news does occur and gold feels some love, like the ladies receiving the gold, price may remain buoyant for a few days or week or so, but the weak chart is not going away, and at that time, gold would be expected to roll over and die, on the weekly basis.

Looking at the gold daily chart, it topped-out on 2/25/25 and receives the neggie d slapdown. Gold stumbles sideways waiting for news. The daily chart is not telling you much, however, the 20-day MA is 2923 and price is 2921 back kissing the 20 from the underside. It is bounce or die time. Gold bulls win big above 2923. Gold bears win big below 2923.

Looking at the gold monthly chart, wow, booooiiiinnngg. It must be on that Viagra stuff. For the last year, gold is a moonshot. Anyone sitting in gold has zero to complain about. The monthly chart makes the higher price high and the chart indicators are neggie d sans the MACD line. Gold bulls rejoice!

Put it all together, remember, trading is playing multi-dimensional chess only time is the dimension not space. The daily chart is not tipping its hand except for the bounce or die coming from 2923. The daily chart was/is receiving a neggie d spankdown that morphed into sideways behavior due to the King Donnie drama. The weekly chart is toast. The monthly chart remains bullish because of the long and strong MACD.

Thus, gold is going to receive a multi-week down move maybe into the 2400-2700 area. You will have to watch the progress of the charts.

After the multi-week down move for gold, it will rebound again and come up for a new all-time record high. Keystone's 80/20 Rule says 8's lead to 2's on the way up and 2's lead to 8's on the way down. When gold breached 2800, that places 3200 on the table. The 2880 level leads to 2920 where price sits now. A move to 2980 will open the door to 3020. A move down to 2820 will open the door to 2780.

After the multi-week down move is over, sometime in April, and the rally starts due to possie d on the weekly chart, price will run higher probably to 3200-3240, on the monthly basis, and that may be a mother of a top since the monthly chart would probably top-out with neggie d in say, the May-June time frame. Gold would then be expected to move down for many months if not a couple years or more. But you do not have to think about that until the monthly chart tops-out with neggie d probably around May or June.

Thus, if you are long gold, you can clench your buttocks and ride the move lower now and for the next 3 to 6 weeks, and then back up again for a few weeks, or, you could sell now and reload long in April at the lower prices.

Keystone is not playing gold or its derivatives long or short currently but obviously he would be on the short side now into early April. Gold is at 2914 as this message is finished. Thus, a move below 2920 opens the door to 2880. The 20-day MA resistance ceiling holds for now. Gold on the Ceiling. Hurry-up, you are late for the Black Keys show. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 3/12/25: Gold jumps 33 bucks to 2947 teasing towards the all-time highs. Nothing's changed. Simply watch the neggie d on the weekly. Traders think the Fed is more likely to cut rates sooner due to economic data so gold pops. The Fed meeting is next Wednesday when Pope Powell brings the tablets down from On High to tell everyone how to trade. The price action until then is somewhat meaningless. In 5 trading days, there will likely be wild moves in Treasuries, stocks, the dollar, gold, bitcoin, etc.... Powell is picking up his white dovish wings at the cleaners so he can wear them next week as he walks on stage for the Q&A. The crony capitalism markets have become a caricature of themselves.

Note Added Saturday, 3/15/25: A gold orgy occurs late in the week sending the yellow metal above 3K now at 3001. The news of a weaker economy and lower consumer sentiment creates angst in markets and recession worries and fears. Traders believe the Fed will have to cut rates sooner and faster due to the flailing economy so gold is bid higher tagging 3,000. Also, the Donnie Trump Trade and Tariff Wars heat-up with the orange head lashing out at everyone that does not bend the knee for thee. The chaos spooks investors so they seek gold as a haven. Central banks keep buying. All that said, nothing has changed. Price has momo due to the happy talk but should top out as described above over the coming days. The breach of 2980 hints that 3020 is on the come so a logical place for the top on the weekly basis, and beginning of the multi-week pullback, would be from 3020-3030 or lower. People may be starting to feel that nothing is worth investing in except gold and silver since they are tangible assets. The Federal Reserve is likely squeezed into a stagflation box. Inflation may not move strongly higher but it may not go down either, so the draining of people's funds continues indefinitely killing family budgets. If the economy weakens, the Fed will want to cut rates, hence that is why stocks and gold pop, but they cannot be too aggressive because they will be making inflation worse further smashing common Americans into dust. Chairman Powell has four days to decide who his master is; inflation or the economy. Sadly, it is probably heads you lose, tails you lose. Gold and stock market enthusiasts fully expect Powell to fly into the press room on Wednesday flapping white dove wings and will be aghast if he shows up with black hawk wings on his back. Hump day is the big day in the week ahead.

SPX S&P 500 Weekly Charts; Fibonacci Retracements for the October 2022 and October 2023 Bottoms

There are two key bottoms after the 2022 lull; October 2022 and October 2023. The stock market orgies continued into the February 2025 top when equities fell off a cliff as forecasted by Keystone and no other analyst. It was nothing fancy, just neggie d as usual.

So down we go and people are finally showing some concern. Stocks keep going down because traders and investors will not lose their bullishness. Everyone is still talking about buying the dip. The beatings will continue until moral improves.

The October 2023 bottom, and what a nice bottom it is, to the February 2025 top, results in a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 5356, the 50% Fib is 5116, and 61.8% Fib is 4876.

The October 2022 bottom, to the February 2025 top, results in a 38.2% retracement to 5151, the 50% Fib is at 4848, and the 61.8% Fib is down at 4544.

What do you notice? Yes, the Fib retracements of the rallies from the two different bottoms share commonality. The 50% fib from the Oct 2023 set-up is 5116 and the 38% Fib from the Oct 2022 set-up is 5151. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why we are never invited to parties, the 5116-5151 level will be key for the weeks and months ahead.

Also, the 62% Fib from the Oct 2023 set-up is 4876 and the 50% Fib from the Oct 2022 set-up is 4848. Thus, the 4848-4876 level will be key for the weeks and months ahead.

Of course, the starting points at the October 2022 bottom and October 2023 bottom would be 100% retracements and on the table for a full-fledged historic stock market crash.

So first thing is first. If stocks continue falling apart, the 5356 is the first Fibonacci support level that will try to stop the selling. If it fails, the next line of Fibonacci defense is 5116-5151 and, if it fails, the 4848-4876 Fib's are next in line and, if they fail, and you are still long stocks, do what you would do if your airplane lost both engines. Put your head between your legs and kiss your arse goodbye.

Note how the Fibonacci retracements line-up with the lows from last summer so that gives the 5116-5151 landing zone additional clout (maybe for later this year and 2026).

We shall see if the selloff has Legs to go with those fine bottoms. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 3/15/25: The SPX places a low last week at 5505 and ends the week at 5639 making a bounce or die decision from the 50-week MA at 5656.

Note Added Saturday, 3/22/25: The SPX 50-week MA is the 5665 palindrome and the critical SPX 12-month MA, that separates a cyclical bull market from a cyclical bear market, is the ominous 5666. Monday above, Tuesday below, Wednesday above, Thursday below, Thursday above, Thursday below, Friday above. The week ends at SPX 5668.The stock market is spinning round like Natalie singing Hey Jack Kerouac. In the last minute of trading for the week, the market makers push the S&P 500 up over the major 5665-5666 demarcation line parking it there for the weekend. Of course they do. The saga will continue next week. This was the action all week long and yet not one talking head on the internet or television highlighted this drama. They simply do not know what to watch. If you are long the market, and the SPX slips back below 5665 and trends lower, you will lose a lot of money as the cyclical bear growls.