Monday, April 15, 2019

SPX S&P 500 Support, Resistance (S/R), Moving Averages and Other Important Levels for Trading the Week of 4/15/19

SPX (S&P 500) support, resistance (S/R), moving averages and other important levels are provided for trading the week of 4/15/19. The US stock market is closed on Good Friday this week with Easter Day on Sunday. Passover begins Saturday and ends the following Saturday. Levels shown in bold are strong resistance and support. Bold and underlined levels are very strong and important S/R.

The all-time record high print for the S&P 500 is 2940.91 on 9/24/18 (seven months ago) and the all-time closing high is 2930.75 on 9/20/18. The SPX all-time record intraday low is 666.79 (the infamous 666) on 3/6/09 (one decade ago) and all-time closing low is 676.53 on 3/9/09.

For 2019, the intraday high is 2910.54 on 4/12/19 (last Friday) and closing high thus far this year is 2907.41 on 4/12/19. For 2019, the intraday low is 2443.96 on 1/3/19 and the closing low for this year thus far is at 2447.89 on 1/3/19. The Federal Reserve, PBOC (China’s central bank), ECB and BOJ colluded to save the stock market in early January and succeeded into the present. The central bankers are the market.

The SPX prints the high for this year last Friday at 2911 only 30 points away from the all-time high at 2941. The week begins at 2907. Note how price was held in check on Friday by the overhead resistance at 2912 and very strong resistance at 2914. If the bulls can punch through 2912-2917, they will pop the S&P 500 to 2924-2926 which would set up for a test of the all-time closing high at 2931.

For the bears, the SPX needs to drop through that support cluster at 2898-2906. If so, the S&P 500 will drop to the uber strong and very significant support level at 2887-2888. If this fails, price then drops lower to test the 2867-2873 support. Generally-speaking, the bulls maintain an upper hand in the stock market as long as the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 2837 holds. If 2837 fails, the stock market will begin collapsing in earnest. The stock market could go into free fall if the 12-month MA at 2772 fails.

The SPX is above the 12-month MA at 2772 so the stock market is in a cyclical (weeks and months) bull market pattern. The NYA is above its 40-week MA so the stock market is in a cyclical bull market pattern. The 150-day MA at 2742 remains dead flat and in negatively sloping since Q4 last year so the stock market is in a cyclical bear market. These indicators will line out in the same direction and will 100% confirm the path ahead for the stock market. Bulls need the 150-day MA to start sloping upwards and they will be singing happy songs. Bears need the SPX to drop like a rock and lose the 2772 level to usher in market carnage.

The strongest support/resistance for the SPX (S&P 500) is 2941, 2931, 2914, 2901-2904, 2888-2889, 2873, 2867, 2862, 2854-2857, 2846, 2831-2835, 2822, 2806-2813, 2798, 2786, 2776-2780, 2743-2744, 2733-2738, 2723-2728, 2713, 2691, 2670, 2659, 2650-2652, 2628, 2584-2588, 2578-2581, 2560, 2548, 2529-2532, 2503, 2484-2497, 2478-2481.

The full moon peaks for the month on Good Friday. Stocks are typically bullish moving through the full moon each month. Stocks are typically bullish the two days before a three-day holiday weekend so there may be buoyancy in equities on Wednesday and Thursday this week. This hints that if the bears want to growl they had better start out of the gate Monday and early in the week. Global earthquake activity will likely increase going into next weekend and early in the week of 4/22/19 since the Earth and Moon will be at a gravitational inflection point.

The uber low CPC and CPCE put/calls remain in play signaling rampant market complacency wanting to see a big pullback in the SPX of 40 to 150 handles, or more, starting at any time forward.

The SPX weekly chart is slowly topping out. The stochastics are overbot and negatively diverged. Ditto the money flow. The RSI and MACD lines continue to eek out upside juice so this hints at sideways jog behavior for 2 to 4 weeks as the S&P 500 tops out in this weekly time frame. The SPX may move down this week, then up the next for a new high, then down for a week, then up for the following week eking out another slightly higher high. At that time, the indicators will likely be in negative divergence and the top will be in on the weekly basis say, late this month or the first half of May. That top will lead to many weeks of downside for stocks so the “Sell in May and Go Away” adage may hold water this year.

So the SPX weekly chart is not quite ready to give up the ghost but the low put/call ratios have been champing at the bit to send stocks sharply lower. What will give? Perhaps one of two scenarios will play out. First, the SPX may drop like a rock right now and flush quickly to 2837 then recover just as fast with another V bottom and then top out as described above in the late April-early May time frame and drop for many weeks forward after that.

Second, sideways choppiness may be the order of the day for the remainder of April. A slight pullback in the SPX this week will then lead to a slightly higher high the following week, then a slightly weaker week, you get the picture, smaller moves, and this continues for 2 to 4 weeks to allow the weekly chart to top out with neggie d. Then all Hades breaks loose with stocks falling like rocks, the low put/calls then take their vengeance, and equities sink lower for many weeks forward (likely at least a couple hundred points lower for the SPX). The Housing Starts data release on Friday is key.

If a US-China trade deal is announced, markets may bounce a day or two but it has the feel of a sell-the-news event. The Trump administration has hyped the trade talks for four months and the SPX pops a half-dozen points on each soundbite. There is a lot priced-in.

Interestingly, the central bankers have all shown their cards this year already. The global central bankers including the Fed, PBOC, ECB and BOJ colluded in early January to save the world’s stock markets. They saw the writing on the wall on 1/3/19 when the US market was falling apart and they panicked.

The central bankers are one-trick Keynesian ponies that only know how to print money that enriches the wealthy elite class. For the last decade, the Fed and other central bankers have enriched the privileged class beyond their wildest expectations while common people suffer through high-debt and structural unemployment. The coming recession will likely trigger a class war in the United States. Global populism and socialism are on the rise. Human greed and corruption destroyed capitalism. America is best described as a ‘faux free market crony capitalism financial system’. It is what it is.

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SPX (S&P 500) SUPPORT/RESISTANCE (S/R) through 4/14/19;

3000
2950
2945
2941 (9/21/18 All-Time Intraday High: 2940.91)
2940
2937
2935
2932
2931 (9/20/18 All-Time Closing High: 2930.75)
2927
2926
2924
2922
2919
2917 (8/29/18 Intraday High: 2916.50)
2914 (8/29/18 Closing High: 2914.04)
2912
2911 (4/12/19 Intraday High for 2019: 2910.54)
2910.54 Previous Week’s High
2910.54 Friday HOD
2908
2907.41 Friday Close – Monday 4/15/19 Starts Here
2907 (4/12/19 Closing High for 2019: 2907.41)
2906
2904
2902
2901
2900
2898.37 Friday LOD
2898
2896
2892
2889
2888
2886
2884
2881
2874
2873.33 Previous Week’s Low
2873 (1/26/18 Intraday High: 2872.80)
2867
2864 (9/7/18 Intraday Low: 2864.12)
2862
2860 (3/21/19 Intraday High: 2860.31)
2857
2854
2852.76 (20-day MA)
2846
2843
2842
2840
2839
2838
2837.10 (200 EMA on 60-Minute Chart an Important Near-Term Market Signal)
2836
2835
2834.40 April Begins Here
2833
2831
2830
2827
2824
2822
2818
2817 (10/17/18 Intraday High: 2816.94)(3/4/19 Intraday High: 2816.88)
2816
2815 (11/7/18 Intraday High: 2815.15)
2813
2810
2809
2808
2806
2803
2802 (3/13/18 Intraday High: 2801.90)
2801.28 (50-day MA)
2800 (12/3/18 Intraday High: 2800.18)
2799
2798 (3/25/19 Intraday Low: 2798.36)
2797
2791 (6/13/18 Intraday High: 2791.47)
2789
2786
2784.10 (10-month MA)
2783
2782
2780
2779
2776
2774
2772.05 (12-month MA; the ‘cliff’ a Keystone Cyclical Market Signal)
2770
2767
2764
2762.55 (200-day MA)
2762
2760
2755.85 (50-week MA)
2754
2753
2751
2749.57 (6-month MA)
2749
2748
2744
2743 (3/8/19 Intraday Low: 2743.07)
2742.11 (150-day MA; the Slope is a Keystone Cyclical Market Signal)
2742 (5/22/18 Intraday High: 2742.24)
2741
2738
2733
2731
2728
2727
2725.35 (20-month MA)
2724
2723
2717 (4/18/18 Intraday High: 2717.49)
2713
2711
2710 (10/11/18 Intraday Low: 2710.51)
2707.32 (20-week MA)
2705.47 (100-day MA)
2705
2702
2701
2699
2696
2695 (12/18/17 Intraday High: 2694.97)
2693
2692 (6/2818 Intraday Low: 2691.99)
2691
2685
2683
2682
2681
2678
2677 (5/29/18 Intraday Low: 2676.81)
2676
2675
2674 (12/29/17 Intraday Low; 2673.61)
2671
2670
2669.02 (100-week MA)
2668
2665 (12/4/17 Intraday High: 2665.19)
2664
2661
2659
2658
2653 (12/13/17 Intraday Low: 2652.85)
2652
2650
2648
2639
2637
2635
2633
2628
2613
2606
2605 (12/1/17 Intraday Low: 2605.52)
2604 (10/29/17 Intraday Low: 2603.54)
2602
2601
2600
2597 (11/7/17 Intraday High: 2597.02)
2595 (5/3/18 Intraday Low: 2594.62)
2593
2588
2586
2585
2584
2583 (12/10/18 Intraday Low: 2583.23)
2582
2581
2579
2578
2575
2573
2569
2567
2566
2560
2557
2555
2554 (4/2/18 Intraday Low: 2553.80)
2553
2552
2551
2549
2548
2545
2544 (10/25/17 Intraday Low: 2544.00)
2541
2535
2532
2529
2522.38 (150-week MA)
2521
2520
2519
2510
2508
2507
2503
2500
2497
2496
2491 (8/8/17 Intraday High: 2490.87)
2488 (9/25/17 Intraday Low: 2488.03)
2484 (7/27/17 Intraday High: 2484.04)
2483
2482
2481 (8/7/17 Closing High: 2480.91)
2480
2478 (7/27/17 Closing High: 2477.83)
2477
2476
2475
2472
2469
2468
2465
2454 (6/19/17 Intraday High: 2453.82)
2453 (6/19/17 Closing High: 2453.46)
2450
2448 (1/3/19 Closing Low for 2019: 2447.89) (Global Central Bankers Collude to Save the Stock Market and Protect the Wealthy Elite Class; 2448 is a key line in the sand)
2445
2444 (1/3/19 Intraday Low for 2019: 2443.96)
2443
2442
2441
2439
2438
2436
2434
2431
2429
2428
2426
2423
2422
2419
2417 (8/21/17 Intraday Low: 2417.35)
2416
2415
2412
2406
2404
2401 (3/1/17 Intraday High: 2400.98)
2400
2397.92 (200-week MA)
2396 (3/1/17 Closing High: 2395.96)
2394
2390
2389
2387
2382
2380
2378
2375
2373
2370
2368
2365
2363
2361
2359
2357
2356
2355
2353
2351 (12/24/18 Closing Low for 2018: 2351.10)
2349
2347 (12/26/18 Intraday Low for 2018: 2346.58)
2345
2343
2342
2341.32 (50-month MA)
2340
2338

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