Sunday, July 22, 2018

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart

The SPX 2-hour has been instrumental in predicting market sogginess but non-stop news bites create sideways choppiness for the candlesticks rather than a strong move south. Price violated the upper standard deviation band and came back to tag the middle band, which is also the 20 MA, and remains sticky at this 2805-ish number. Look at how the bands are tightening the most over the last month so a big move one way or the other is likely coming soon. Tight bands (pink arrows) predict a strong move but do not predict direction.

We watched the red lines display overbot conditions, the rising wedge pattern and negative divergence across all indicators so you knew stocks would sell off, and they did. However, the news bites and mixed signals from Chairman Powell and President Trump create another rally. Price tagged the middle band and bounced. There was no reason for price to bounce chart-wise; but news bites occur and have to be priced-in to the chart. The maroon lines then show a higher high in price with the SPX tagging the upper band, displaying overbot conditions, a rising wedge, and negative divergence across all the indicators so you knew price would be spanked back down, and it was.

Price tags the middle band and remains sticky there. The lower band at 2793 remains in play and the indicators are weak and bleak reinforcing this idea. The histogram, however, did not print a lower low as price printed the low so that may create a candlestick of joy. The other indicators, however, will likely create more downside in this 2-hour time frame (as long as a sound bite does not occur that cheerleads the markets).

The stochastics slip below 50% into bear territory but the RSI is not yet sub 50. Watch this closely since it will tell you if the downside has legs, or not. The price action remains erratic, choppy and somewhat unpredictable due to the constant news flow. Ther eis a big gap at 2810-2815 that will need filled at some point in the future but the edge has to be given to the bears for the hours ahead with the 2793 on the table. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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