The broad indexes drift lower as traders become more concerned over the CR deadline. The VIX pops above the 14.67 bull-bear line in the sand and UTIL fails through the 485.33 and 483.57 critical levels. The bulls push GTX above 4889 which is holding back equities from stumbling lower. Ditto the XLF remaining above 20.01. Keybot the Quant is on the short side now but the markets remain in a very indecisive mode. Keep watching the rudders for the market ship; UTIL 485.33, 483.57, VIX 14.67, XLF 20.01, and GTX 4889. Okay, watch XLF now at 20.02, this is huge for markets, bears need a couple more pennies........
Note Added 11:19 AM: Here it is..... XLF 20.01 smack dab on top of the bull-bear line in the sand. This is huge for markets. Equities will move in the same direction that XLF moves. What say you XLF? Bounce or die.
Note Added 11:46 AM: Bounce. Today is wild action. Markets are a coin flip right now. UTIL 482.54 below both key levels. VIX 14.81 teasing the 14.67 breakout. XLF 20.06 not wanting to fail at 20.01. GTX 4890 hanging on for the bulls by its chinny chin chin. TRIN 1.27. SPX did not perform the island reversal but instead simply dropped lower to fill the 1688-1691 gap. Last week's low is taken out at 1691.98 which is a market negative. SPX is at 1692 back kissing this number as this is typed. The SPX came very close to back testing the 20-day MA at 1684.74 and rising. Another gap is below at 1671-1674. The beat goes on. XLF 20.01 carries a massive amount of clout and the bulls are hanging on to it with all their might. Keystone is looking around for a coin to flip.
Note Added 11:55 AM: GTX 4889 failure so this should usher in market negativity. VIX 14.91. XLF is 20.04 coming down for another look at 20.01.......
Note Added 12:41 PM: UTIL 482.19. VIX 14.90. GTX collapsing at 4861. XLF 20.04 with the bulls fortifying the financial sector, circling the wagons, to place a last stand at 20.01. Bulls can stay in the game with XLF above 20.01 but if XLF fails 20.01 the bulls have lost control of the markets. The 8 MA remains under the 34 MA on the 30-minute.
Note Added 12:52 PM: XLF 20.03.... high drama at the banks today. GS and BAC were downgraded creating negativity. Bears need 3 cents.....
Note Added 1:02 PM: The SPX continues fighting along last week's low at 1692. SPX is dead flat through 1691-1693 for the last 2 hours. This 1691-1692 support area plays a key role. Bulls win above 1692. Bears win below 1691. UTIL 481 handle. VIX almost a 15 handle. XLF 20.03..... the Fed is busy propping up the banks today.
Note Added 1:12 PM: XLF 20.04. Keystone took profits on SSG exiting this long position which is a 2x inverse ETF that shorts the semi's. Will look to reenter. Also bot NUGT opening a new long position in this speculative and dangerous 3x gold miner bull ETF.
Note Added 1:16 PM: Note the sideways symmetrical triangle on the XLF 5-minute chart. Price is at the apex and needs to choose up or down. The move should be 10 to 14 cents. XLF is 20.03, time to choose, either explode higher to 20.13+ allowing the markets to recover into the closing bell, or, XLF collapses to the low 19.90's paving a sustainable path forward for market bears. What will it be XLF? Keystone needs some heart pills.
Note Added 2:31 PM: XLF 20.03. The financial theatrics are intense. XLF is moving dead flat unable to commit up or down but knowing it must choose now. The sideways triangle is textbook on the 5-minute XLF chart. Come on now XLF, pick one way or the other, you know that you have to, the time is nigh. VIX 15.50.
Note Added 3:00 PM: President Obama will talk at 3:30 PM. Here comes the political antics at the podium. This clown behavior will continue from all political parties through the weekend into Monday evening. Instead of bashing the House, perhaps the president will announce the new Fed Chairman, or Chairwoman? XLF 20.03.
Note Added 3:18 PM: Keystone took profits on the NUGT long trade using it as a few-hour day trade. Will look to reenter. No use giving up those gains today especially with the president about to speak which may influence the gold market. Also bot JCP for a dead-cat bounce. JCP hourly and minute charts are setting up for a bounce. The 80/20 rule leaves the door open to the 7.50-8.20 area as a bottom for JCP, but, for now, a bounce may occur at any time, now or Monday morning, due to the bludgeoning over the last day.
Note Added 3:20 PM: XLF 20.02. Bears, you need another penny or two lower for XLF and you will receive a very ugly close. Bulls will hang on into the weekend if they keep their heads afloat above XLF 20.01.
Note Added 3:32 PM: XLF 20.05 so bulls may be able to float markets out sideways into the weekend. The president is late as usual. The staff should simply schedule each speech 10 or 15 minutes later each time then he would always be on time. Keystone bot NUGT opening a new long trade.
Note Added 3:42 PM: Here is the president. He will be talking about the CR deadline so Yellen will have to wait. XLF 20.07. SPX is 1691.88 as the speech begins. Last week's low is 1691.88.
Note Added 3:48 PM: XLF 20.03. SPX 1690.72. Markets weaken as the president speaks and reiterates his 'no negotiation' stance, already blaming republicans ahead of time for a pending government shutdown. The Washington dysfunction and fear-mongering continues. As dear ole Mom would say, 'it takes two to tango'.
Note Added 3:58 PM: The president could have phoned-in the speech; same-o stuff. Markets meander sideways. XLF 20.07. SPX 1693.
Note Added 4:01 PM: SPX closes pennies under last week's low and logs a negative week honoring the seasonality that the week after September OpEx is down 80% of the time. The UTIL 50-week MA trap-door at 483.57 opened today but surprisingly the markets only experience a moderate drop. The XLF refusing to drop under 20.01 propped the indexes up today. Political grandstanding and posturing will continue all weekend long with drama on tap for the Sunday morning political talk shows. Monday will be an epic day in stock market history. Perhaps global events on Sunday out of China, Japan, Italy or Portugal may take precedence over the U.S. theatrics? It is always the event out of left field over by the food stand that surprises you when everyone's attention is toward the show on the main stage.
KS your short term trading history is impressive(up 133 percent), did you ever think of starting a service with real time signals?
ReplyDeleteYep, and have had offers, but, that seems too much like work. LOL
DeleteIt might not have to be. A simple login section with buy and sell posts would suffice for me. :)
DeleteI don't know with Silver Bird tweeting sounds like it would take 10 seconds to post a real time trade.
ReplyDeleteHis signals are nothing special. Just follow a couple of mooving averages and you can follow him. When the market goes sideways he gets chopped up every time. He has been lucky that the market has had volitility and follow thru. His lines in the sand are about as worthless as Obama's
ReplyDeleteScott
KS doesn't need me or anyone else to fight his battles, but might I suggest that that be your last post here. It's given all of us a glimpse into your level of intelligence and judgement.
DeleteScott, all that whipsaw and volatility is all documented; you can see all the archived Keybot data for the last three years on that web site. That is not easy to do to for that algo to make those calls like it does. This year is a challenging year since it may be an important multi-year top. Keybot is +7% on the year thus far, can't beat that for a very low risk return. It takes a lot of years and effort to develop tools, focus your energy on that.
DeleteKS do you have a favorite time frame for your short term trades that you do? 1, 5,10, 15 minute...
DeleteThanks
Nope, you simply flow where the trade takes you, like surfing, you get on the wave, start to ride it, and then ride it out. If it is a divergence trade it is typically defined by the time frame of the candlesticks that dictate the divergence.
DeleteKS I too rely on moving average crossovers. So for the both of us I prey the foillow thru continues and we can rake up double digit returns. You gave back 2% in lag from the peak perhapse if you beg I will tell you sometime how that can be avoided on both the entry and reversal.
DeleteAnon, Keystone has heard this bluster many times. It shows a naivete concerning markets. If you believe that you can predict a gap-up or gap-down move in markets the day before it may happen, where the SPX moves from 10 to 30 handles (from 0.5% to 2.0%) or more, sir, you are not a trader, you are a magician and soothsayer. Develop a model over many years and you will better understand the situation. Focus on learning how to trade and what affects market movement instead of the programming side. Any monkey can program, the intelligence is in the underlying content.
Deletelast news from the front :)
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/senate-passes-measure-keeping-the-government-open-2013-09-27?link=MW_home_latest_news
V.
Yep V, so the CR bill is stripped of the defunding of Obamacare and is now simply a clean bill to fund the government. Thus, the House can approve it, and then it goes to the president who will sign it and everyone is happy and goes back to drinking booze. Or, the House adds something different on it, and sends it back to the Senate for them to take another look. The latter is likely it is only a matter of what new stipulation may be added, like delaying the implementation of Obamacare for the individual, or, extending the CR deadline a couple weeks or so to place it on the same deadline schedule as the 10/17/14 debt ceiling limit deadline. What a circus.
Deleteindeed, difficult times ahead.
DeleteI know october is one of the best months of the year for bulls. Maybe it will be so after a little trip to lower levels.
V.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=25&id=p05697074051&a=309132775&listNum=6
ReplyDeleteINV HS on Vix triggered and it could cause problems until Oct 3rd.
still have conflicting info on FLD's and some flags that should have triggered to the upside so a rally here is possible but might be muted.
I not short but I'm not holding my breath for a rally like I was yesterday.
This get resolved by the 3rd I think
That is a good looking chart. Perhaps VIX moves to the yellow sideways range at +18 which would place the bottom. Seems like VIX will want to print a lot higher like 22 or to match the 23-24 high or even higher which will create a lower market bottom. Time will tell. Whoa, VIX is 15.45 right now.
Deleteif we are going to bounce it will be right here and it should go to 1705ish
ReplyDelete60 min 130ma and the failing wedge give the bulls a little bit of hope
VIX needs to relax though
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p44081500972&a=312297654
That chart does look bull favorable with the positive divergence. Since they are one-hour candlesticks, price may play around for 1 to 4 more candles, which would take us into Monday morning, and then we will know more about the CR deadline drama. Looks like everything is leading into a crescendo on Monday.
Deletethat's what I thought too...I am positioned for a big up move monday
DeleteI've got FLD info that is pointing to a tradable low on the 3rd so we may get a confirmation of the uptrend then...crazy world
XLF drama continues, the sideways triangle on the 5-minute chart has to make a decision and markets are going to follow it.
ReplyDeleteScott, your comment about KS was very crude and without class.
ReplyDeleteit's just his rude style.
Deleteothers already observed that.
but he's an intelligent guy.
a rude, but intelligent guy.
V.
Being humble is what it counts - even if a person is intelligent
ReplyDeleteXLF 20.05 so bulls should be able to send things sideways into the weekend.
ReplyDeleteI cant wait for the Head to talk. Lets see what kind of market moving vocabulary he uses.
ReplyDeleteFeS2
Stick save on tap...1705 and then we will see...FLD's on the 3rd! lol
ReplyDeletethis is such a rigged nightmare of clownfaced fools
what does FLD mean?
ReplyDeleteTidal info from Reedy point gave a turn for friday. September produces inversions in this info. My analysis gave a top, but was inverted. Timing of the turns is really sharp. Anyway, with a turn on friday and indicators turning up I predict US government will not shut down.
ReplyDeleteCould be the really last wave 5 to spark the downwave into 2014.
Financials will remain key, the XLF 20.01 will likely provide the thumbs up, or thumbs down for markets. Since the Senate is not in session until 2 PM EST Monday (they are playing their games letting the House know that they will not run back into session for them), this is only with 2 hours of trading remaining on Monday afternoon. Thus, if the House adds a new stipulation to the CR, which it likely will, that means the bill goes back to the Senate, and with the drama continuing late Monday afternoon into the evening, the market affect will likely not occur until Tuesday morning's opening bell. Markets may drift lower on Monday and long traders are going to want to buy the dip since the politicians always agree in the end and kick the can down the road, or, will they this time? Keystone is stocking up on heart pills this weekend.
ReplyDelete