Wednesday, September 5, 2012

UPS United Parcel Service Weekly Chart 20 and 50 MA Cross M Top FDX Announces Slowdown

The UPS chart was posted the other day but in light of the bombshell FDX news last evening, it is worthy of further study.  The UPS 20 and 50-Week MA Cross is one of Keystone's Cyclical Indicators (reference the Cyclical Signals page on this site).  The cyclical bull was strong from 2009 into the 2011 top but in August 2011 the 20 MA stabbed down thru the 50 MA signaling that a cyclical bear market had taken hold. But, lo and behold, since central banksters are now continually interfering in global markets, the Fed announced Operation Twist and the ECB started the LTRO 1 and 2 stimulus programs which saved the day and the market rally began again in late 2011. The 20 crossed back above the 50 early 2012 to verify the ongoing cyclical bull market.

But FDX lays an egg last night.  If parts, packages, products and paperwork are not shipping, that tells you the entire globe is in a large economic slowdown.  FDX cites the slowdown in manufacturing as hampering the business. This news is very ominous for markets moving forward. Shipping is one of the key business indicators.  In early trading today, FDX is down over 2% and UPS is hit about one and one-half percent.  The chart must be watched closely over the coming weeks to see if the 20 crosses down thru the 50, if so, think long and hard about any long position held. The markets will be headed into a cyclical bear that may last a few months, or years.

Note the white rising wedge, overbot conditions and negative divergence (red lines) that spanked price down. The M Top is further bad news for bullish traders. Also, note how the MACD was never happy about the bottom placed last summer and prefers to see price come down to retest the same levels again. Price also closed under the 50-week MA yesterday, more bearish news. Watch the 20 and 50 MA cross, it is a big deal if it occurs, and if so, think long and hard about any long positions in your portfolio, since surely they will all begin bleeding steadily going forward. U.S. futures are lower this morning the FDX news no doubt causing damage. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

2 comments:

  1. I thought the Bot was short from 1399 yesterday??

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  2. Markets are fast-moving John, Keybot flipped back to the long side at SPX 1402 in the afternoon, a rare occurrence for the algo, that type of behavior only happening to the algo two other times in the last five years. SPX keeps stumbling sideways these days, Draghi is only about 23 hours away now where the story will be told.

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