SPX Monthly Chart Secular Bull and Bear Markets Rising Wedge Overbot Negative Divergence

The SPX monthly chart with price crossing the 12 MA serves as one of Keystone's secular market indicators; you can see the moves from a secular bull to a bear and back again. The red circle shows the turmoil in summer 2010 when Chairman Bernanke had to step in to save the markets from collapse with QE2. Note the pink circles that are lower lows for the indicators that was never resolved, yet. Price will likely have to come back down to the early 2009 lows at some point over the next one to seven years. The 18-year cycle is the most reliable cycle and the secular bear would have began in 2000 so 2018 give or take is when the new 18-year bull should begin. Thus, price can come back down to test the lows at anytime before then.

The purple lines show a rising wedge, overbot conditions and negative divergence so the move up in markets is very long in the tooth and should roll over moving forward. It is also interesting to see the 10 MA under the 12 MA which is a bearish indication, in a strong up market the 10 MA should be above the 12 MA. Despite any upcoming selling that should occur, bulls will be fine unless they lose the 12 MA at 1293. Losing the 1293 level will indicate a move back into a secular bear, but this number sits over 100 handles lower. Projection is lower prices moving forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.