CPCE Put/Call Ratio and SPX S&P 500 Daily Charts; Rampant Complacency and Fearlessness Signal Stock Market Top

The CPCE put/call ratio is down to lows not seen in a couple years. The euphoric stock market complacency is off-the-charts. Grandma Nellie, that does not know stocks from shinola, called a broker to place her entire life savings in the stock market. The Uber driver bot a 3x long ETF using up an entire paycheck. The Fed wine is flowing like water. Everyone and his bro expects stocks to go to the moon, when King Donnie takes the throne on Monday, at high noon.

Traders and investors are fearless since you can pick any stock and it will always go up forever. What's that sound? Oh no, a fuse is lit. Get out!! The party rages on but the band already played the last song and is loading up the van. It is Closing Time. The stock market will likely blow-up starting any day forward due to the rampant complacency and 100% bullishness in the stock market. Bears no longer exist.

The two voluptuous green ovals of joy signaled that the panic and fear was off the charts--the opposite of now. In August, and then again in September, everyone thought all hope was lost. Stocks would collapse into oblivion and franks and beans would be served at Thanksgiving and Christmas dinners. That excessive gloom, despair, and agony, as the Hee-Haw boys sing, tells you it is time to buy. People are running from the market with their hair on fire so that is when you take their shares off their hands and go long.

In October, the put/calls fell to low values like now, and that resulted in a 180-point selloff in the SPX, call it 2 hundo. And then, in early November, the orange-headed bloviating carnival clown defeated the Marxist/communist in the POTUS election and the stock market goes wild to new heights. It has all been choppy slop ever since. The drop coming in the US stock market will likely be far larger than the prior 2 hundo pullback.

Today is a big back test of the 50-day MA at 5958. Price begins at 5950 so the bulls need 8 points to retake the 50-day hill. This would create a path to further highs in stocks as the bulls puff their chests out. Bears must hold the line at the 50 and spank the bulls back down. Whoa, doggie. Look at that. In real-time, the S&P futures are up 8 points. The bulls and bears want to rumble at the 50 today like the New York gangs.

The fuse is lit on the TNT due to the rampant stock market complacency and fearlessness. T-N-T, its dy-no-mite, as AC/DC sings. You know what happens when you play around too much, right? It blows up in your face. Are you still greedy and picking up nickels in front of the bulldozer? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9:40 AM EST: Stocks are off and stumbling for a new day of choppy slop. The 50-day MA is at 5963 and price is at.... wait for it...... wait a bit longer for it...... 5963. The bulls and bears are battling over this important piece of real estate and it is important who wins. The SPX must bounce or die. Which is it?

Note Added 9:43 AM EST: Spank, spank. Bears spank price lower to 5952 in a heartbeat. The battle at 5963 will continue.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips back to the long side yesterday morning at SPX 5920. The whipsaw choppy slop of 2025 is nauseating. Both bulls and bears are getting chewed-up and spit out. Bulls need stronger retail stocks to continue the party while the bears need higher volatility, and weaker banks and chips, to take the stock market ball back.

Keybot the Quant

GOOGL Alphabet (Google) Weekly Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Tweezer Top

Google, er Alphabet, is a darling of traders and investors over the last few years and as other top tech stocks falter, traders squeeze into GOOGL further stretching the Alphabet balloon to the size of the Hindenburg. What is the first thing that jumps out at you when looking at the GOOGL weekly chart? Yes, the Tweezer Top. The two candlesticks 3 weeks apart spike higher intraweek producing the long upper shadows for the candlesticks that look like a pair of tweezers. The pattern typically marks a top and conversely, a Tweezer Bottom will identify a bottom.

The red lines show higher highs in price since summer and the Tweezer Top are matching record highs. The highs in price, however, come with neggie d, so a smackdown is in order going forward and a multi-week pullback. Soon, people will be googling to find out why Google stock is dropping. At least it will always be its own verb.

Price pierces the upper standard deviation band so the middle band at 172 and lower band at 147 are on the table. Price held the 50-wk MA in September and when she falls going forward will test the 50 again at 166. Note the strong price support in that 162-165-ish area. The 150 level is also strong price support.

GOOGL is expected to drop into a multi-week down move from here. The 162-165 support is a good target below for the weeks ahead and if that fails, 150 is likely. Keystone is not holding GOOGL long or short currently but obviously the play is short going forward. We will see if the Tweezer Top facilitates the neggie d spankdown.

A lot of these high-flying tech stocks are headquartered, or have major divisions, in California where the wild fires remain out of control due to modern-day human incompetence and inept management. California is the land of fruits and nuts, that are now roasted. There is no joy today, down at Palisades Park. I gave that girl a hug, in the tunnel of love. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

NVDA NVIDIA Weekly Chart; Negative Divergence; Price Extended and Topped-Out

NVIDIA and CEO Emperor Jensen remain the central focus of attention in this new hyped-up artificial intelligence age. There is lots of talk of AI agents. Agent, schmagent. The only agent you need to groove to is the Secret Agent Man with its unmistakable intro riff. Beware those pretty AI faces that you find. Some folks would sing, "Secret Asian Man."

Keystone posted a prior NVDA daily chart showing a H&S pattern in play with neck at 132. Price fell through to126 but quickly recovered on more AI hype news and Jensen waving chips in the air. That general pattern is still in play only now it is a double-headed, Quasimodo, pattern. With head at 153 and neckline at, let's call it 133, where price is at now, 133-136, the downside target is 120 if the 133 fails.

The NVDA weekly chart above is toast, due to the neggie d, and last week started a -6% pullback. The red rising wedge was bearish and all chart indicators were negatively diverged (sloping down while price continued higher), so you knew the top was in, and it was. There was no reason for price to come up again for a matching high since a multi-week slide should take place. NVDA was soft for a couple months but as soon as Jensen was waving more AI chips in the air, traders trip over each other to buy for fear of missing out on this miraculous miracle called AI (arrogant ignorance).

NVDA price comes back up to test the record high and promptly falls on its sword. The dark maroon lines show that the chart indicators remain weak and bleak, and neggie d since price makes a matching high, so another spankdown is expected and occurs last week. The chart is ugly so lots of downside would be expected moving forward.

Watch the RSI and stochastics 50% levels since that will mark a shift from bull territory to bear territory. The 20-wk MA is 132.59, again, highlighting this key support level. Take a purple crayon, Keystone likes purple crayons because they taste like grapes, and draw a thick line across the 132-136 level. If you are bullish NVDA, and price falls below 132-136, that is when you begin losing big chunks of your money on your way to 110-120, and perhaps 80 as the months play out.

Price is extended above the moving average ribbon so a mean reversion lower would be in order. The pink box for the ADX shows that the strong trend higher for NVIDIA is over; it ended in September/October. The Aroon is a hoot. The green line shows that 100% of the bulls, every single NVDA bull, believes that NVDA stock will go up forever. Comically, the red line indicates that about 90% of the NVDA bears also believe that the stock will go up forever. Emperor Jensen is throwing a huge boring party for bulls and bears alike on one side of the boat. Attendees take turns bending knee for Jensen, kissing the ring, and then kissing and bowing to the new AI Blackwell superchip, that appears to be running very warm. Keystone is on the other side of the boat turning up the amps with Story of My Life. Do you want to have fun or lose your money in NVDA?

Take your profits and move on from NVDA. The 110-120 level is likely on tap by the end of the month or early February. The AI company reports yearnings on 2/19/25 so if the stock is soggy until then, that will probably bring it back to life. Note the two purple arrows showing the tight squeeze on the standard deviation bands. A tight squeeze predicts that a huge price move will occur but does not predict direction. In the above example, the tight squeeze shot price to the upside so you knew that would continue in early 2024.

Looking at a monthly chart, it is not pretty. What do you expect for a stock that went from pocket change to 136 bucks in only 9 years? That is impressive and made a lot of people millionaires and Emperor Jensen a billionaire. Alas, all good things come to an end. The chart indicators on the NVDA monthly chart are neggie d with the MACD line flattish moving a hair higher. There is a lot of month left so the MACD may drop to be flat or lower, which would lock in the universal neggie d and call the long-term multi-month top for NVDA. If the MACD remains that tiny hair higher through January, NVDA will likely perform a jog move, down-up, before topping-out long-term in the February-April time frame. Either way, it is coming, and it is very likely that NVIDIA is making its long-term top right now and Emperor Jensen will be singing a swan song for the share price instead of waving another AI chip in the air.

Keystone is not holding NVDA long or short currently but the obvious play going forward is short. Keep tight mental stops since a hyped-up stock like this still has a lot of stupid buyers including Joe Sixpack and Carlos Bagholder. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday, 1/14/25, at 6:00 PM EST: NVDA 132.

CRB Commodities Index Daily Chart; Goods Inflation Moving Higher

Inflation is a hot topic these days. King Donnie proclaims that he will slay the Bidenflation dragon and deliver lower prices to the huddled masses. Americans want action not words so chop, chop, orange head. The Fed and others are concerned about inflation heating-up in the near-term. If inflation begins running higher, the Fed will not want to cut rates anymore but that will create further selling in stocks since the easy money punch bowl will be taken away.

Inflation is made up of the goods and services components. For decades, the two track each other well and where one went the other followed and visa versa, like your shadow. The COVID-19 pandemic turned this relationship asunder. Since everyone was isolating from one another, except for the Amazon driver that enters Miss Summer's house and does not reappear for 20 minutes, so services inflation fell off a cliff. There were no services. No travel, no concerts, no nothing.

Then, as the covid pandemic subsided, people were champing at the bit to travel again and do fun things so services inflation shot to the moon. Goods inflation also ran higher as people tried to return to normal in 2022. Inflation peaked in May/June 2022. The CRB is starting to climb to levels that are comparable to inflation running up into the May/June 2022 peak; not good.

Over the last couple months, services inflation data hints that it may be subsiding and coming back into normalcy. After all, how many times can you fly to Europe or Japan on vacation? Or visit Disneyland? Or see the Rolling Stones in concert, er Rolling Fossils? Or go whitewater rafting in West Virginia? But as services inflation started to subside and move lower to join the more tame goods inflation, bingo, old guys say bingo a lot, the goods inflation now runs higher like a banshee.

The black circle is the death cross and the gold circle now shows a golden cross in play with CRB going to the moon. Commodities are inflating and flying higher. Up, Up and Away. Honey, take a ride on my big beautiful balloon. CRB runs higher from 265 to 306, a big 41-point gain, or +15.5%, in only 4 months. CRB is rising at +4% per month for the last 4 months; or +1% per week for the last 4 months. No wonder food and other prices are not going down. Keystone asked the clerks at the local grocery store if they sell meat on an installment plan. Nancy, the battleaxe that is in charge of the deli counter, pushed her hair net to one side, and told him to go eat spam.

The rise in the CRB, GTX, DBA and other commodity tickers over the last month or so is stealth. As overweight Americans gorged themselves with one more turkey leg, another helping of ham, and slice of pecan pie with Cool Whip topping, they forgot to watch the commodity charts to see that goods inflation is rocketing higher. The move fits in with the economic growth narrative but it could be a false start. Wages, a key component of inflation, are stagnant as the Friday Jobs Report shows, so they will not be adding to further inflation.

America's wealthy, that were made filthy rich by the Fed's 15 years of money printing, have been supporting the economy continuing to spend without worry or fear. This cannot go on forever, and yet it continues. The EOY is an odd time because companies will not can workers during the holidays for fear of looking like Ebenezer Scrooge, so the mass layoffs occur in January. Over the next couple weeks, lots of Americans are going to be called into the boss's office and told their services are no longer required; now hand in your door key and get the hell out.

Keep an eye on commodities. If CRB continues higher verifying an ongoing trend of higher goods inflation, the services inflation will remain status quo (stop coming down), or also head higher, which means headaches for the Fed because rate hikes may be required going forward. Maybe commodities and goods inflation is floating higher because King Donnie is going to deport a lot of the workers in these industries that supply commodities? Prices will rise if workers become scarce. You can pick your own steenkin' fruit and rebuild your own house (California wild fires and Carolina floods).

If you had to guess, this recent move higher in goods inflation is probably a fake-out, and the path forward is not economic growth but rather recession; the missing recession. The Godot Recession remains in play and, unlike the play, it will probably show up this year, so the CRB and goods inflation may be a short-lived event fueled by rich people spending lots of money in Q4. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

NYA NYSE Composite Index Weekly Chart; NYA Will Signal Start of a Cyclical Bear Market for US Stocks if it Fails at 40-wk MA at 18800

The NYA has retreated to where life become interesting for the US stock market. Is Daylight Fading? That's a tight band. Keystone's top two signals for the intermediate to longer term, for calling cyclical bull and bear markets, are the SPX 12-month MA cross and the NYA 40-week MA cross.

If NYA loses the 40-wk MA at 18831, the US stock market falls into a cyclical bear market going forward. That puppy dropped to 18941 last week only 110 points away or 0.6%; that is nothing.

The NYA topped-out on 11/29/24, during Thanksgiving dinner, at 20333. The drop to 18963 is a -6.7%, call it -7%, drop, so another -3% would be a -10% correction.

If you remain long the stock market and are cheerleading the SPX 7K and higher calls in the months ahead, your butt cheeks will clench if NYA loses 18.8K, and you will begin losing your shirt. The stock market will hang in there as long as the bulls hold the line at NYA 18.8K and do not let it fail. Lightning Crashes at 18.8K. Isn't it great to see a sea of music fans without any garbage smartphones in sight? Great times. And most of you young idiots walk around all day looking down at a smartphone thinking that you are important. That's funny. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday, 1/14/25: The NYA drops to 18857 yesterday with the 40-wk MA at 18870 but immediately bounces on the test of this critical support that separates a cyclical bull from a cyclical bear. Now you know what to watch going forward. She came down for a whack at support at 18870 to test how strong it might be, and to let everyone know that there will be further tests ahead. The NYA sits at 19177 with Armageddon at 18870 only 307 points away. Maybe 307 points is not far down. Is there something left for you and me? One Last Breath. Stay away from the sauce, Scotty, and use that gift that God gave you.

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; UTIL 958 is the Trap-Door for the US Stock Market

The walk to the Gallows Pole begins. The United States stock market is standing on the utility trap-door. If UTIL falls through the 50-wk MA at 958, it is sayonara time for stocks, the trap door will open, and the SPX would be expected to drop into an air pocket loss of 20 to 40 points within an hour after the trap door opens. The stock market would only deteriorate from there as long as UTIL remains below the 958.

If the stock market sells off, but UTIL does not fall below 958, the stock market drop is a pig in a poke and equities will recover. The 958 level is Armageddon. If UTIL falls through 958 and stays below but you do not see any appreciable drop or negativity in the stock market, consider it a gift and your last few seconds to git outta Dodge. It will be fun to watch. The men at work at the utilities will determine the fate ahead for stocks. Down Under. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday, 1/14/25: The trap-door flew open yesterday to begin the week and stocks flushed to the downside but the bulls worked frantically and managed to relatch the trap-door and move UTIL back above the 960 line in the sand. Now you know what to watch going forward. If UTIL fails 960 again, there will be blood on Wall Street. Stocks will not be in much jeopardy if UTIL remains above 960. UTIL is at 979 only 19 points above Armageddon. Is the stock market Livin' On A Prayer. What does Orianthi and Richie say?

RGTI, QBTS, IONQ, QUBT and QTUM Daily Charts; Quantum Computing Stocks Crash after Diss from Emperor Jensen at NVDA

Quantum computing stocks take the pipe today. Emperor Jensen at NVDA threw shade at the growing quantum computing sector saying real strides are 15 to 30 years away. The quantum computing stocks are cut off at the knees most losing half their value today. That's going to leave a mark.

Timmy Trader took $100K of client's money and put it into quantum stocks telling them he will provide better returns than anyone. Irate customers are calling him screaming that they have lost one-half of their money in only a few short days! Timmy spouts the line he was taught by his boss telling clients 'not to forget that they are long-term investors'. He cannot take the pressure anymore. Timmy runs across the trading floor towards the window and jumps. Fortunately, he is on the ground floor.

Analysts and strategists were on television proclaiming quantum stocks as the Second Coming. They lost their shirt. Quantum computing companies are mad that Jensen dissed them cratering their stocks. How dare he overhype the artificial intelligence gig while he does not let us overhype our quantum computing scheme? Jensen only cares about selling AI chips. He does not care what people do with them; as long as they keep coming back to buy more, baby.

The quantum computing stocks are beaten like a rented mule. RGTI, Rigatoni (Rigetti Computing), oh my, receives a -45% bludgeoning today. It was slaughtered. RGTI peaks at 21.42 and drops to 10.04.

QBTS, it may as well be called Q bites, as in bite the dust, crashes -36%. D-Wave is pushing-back at Emperor Jensen's unkind words for quantum computing so the drama has more legs. QBTS CEO Alan Baratz, in a CNBC interview, proclaims that NVDA CEO Jensen Huang is "dead wrong" saying that commercial viability for quantum computing is a decade or three away. It is blasphemy. Baratz decrees, "We at D-Wave are commercial today." They will not be sending each other Christmas cards anymore.  QBTS peaks at 11.41 and crashes to a low at 4.65. Ouch. No wonder D-Wave has its panties in a bunch.

IONQ is next to sh*t the bed and a -39% drop today is a notable bed sh*tting indeed. IONQ, looks like it needs employees that have an IQ after peaking at 54.74 and collapsing to 25.92.

QUBT bit-it, as in bit the big one, crashing -43% today. Quantum Computing, the board was up all night thinking-up that company name, peaks at 27.15 and drops to 9.91 the worst performer in the group. It is ridden hard and put away wet. Nasty. Quantum drops -64% off its peak in mid-December. Wow.

Anthony the single guy in the office was in the break room before Christmas bragging to pretty Emily, the new administrative assistant, that he held stock in all the quantum computing companies and planned to retire young as these stocks go to the moon. Now he is crying into his cafe latte. Emily told Anthony that he is a loser, with an L on his forehead, and she will never go out with him. She is Respectable. Mick and the boys.

QTUM, that can be called sputum, loses only -5% today. Defiance defied the big losses in the other plays. QTUM peaks at 90.67 and drops to 80.45.

The smoke will need to clear for a few days in the quantum computing arena. There remains an electrical smell in the building. All the tech hype (AI and quantum) these days is reminiscent of the dotcom bubble in 1999 and 2000.

Every company was a winner in 1999 and the next great thing, until it was not. Folks, you can have all the AI and quantum your heart desires, but it will not fix your clogged toilet, or change your flat tire, or give life-advice to your teenager. The gains in AI and quantum are incremental for a company that will question if the investment is worth it. As the economy turns south, less money will be spent on technology and the advances in this pie in the sky AI and quantum computing arena will slow. Keystone has not played the stocks above long or short and does not plan to in the near future. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

The Keystone Speculator's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips back to the short side at SPX 5955. Pass the Dramamine. Bulls need stronger banks and lower volatility. Bears need weaker copper.

Keybot the Quant

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips long yesterday morning at SPX 5988. Bulls need higher copper and banks to run stocks higher and copper is trading higher today. Bears need VIX above 17, otherwise, they got buptkis.

Keybot the Quant