Keybot the Quant Whipsaws Back to the Short Side after King Donnie Starts the Global Trump Trade and Tariff War

The Keystone Speculator's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, whipsaws back to the short side this morning, as expected after the tariff fail, at SPX 5488. A bloody day was on tap and it did not disappoint. King Donnie, donning his Burger King paper hat, kicks-off the Trump Trade and Tariff War liberating Americans from their money. That is why it is called liberation day.

Watch copper and commodities. Bears win with weaker copper that will tank the stock market further. Bulls can stop the stock market selling, and bleeding, with stronger commodities. Bears need CPER below 29.65 and the Wall Street blood will flow like water. Bulls need GTX above 3728 to stabilize the stock market and begin hoping for a relief rally.

Keybot the Quant

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish Today but King Donnie Kicks-Off Global Trade and Tariff War Crashing Markets

Keystone's trading algorithm, Keybot the Quant, flips bullish before lunch time today at SPX 5656 but the timing is bad since King Donnie unleashes his Trade and Tariff War against the world. It is a mess. Protectionism extended the Great Depression in the 1930's. S&P futures are down a couple hundo points about -3.5% so tomorrow will be a bloody Black Thursday if the futures do not improve. Keybot the Quant will likely flip back to the short side tomorrow if the mayhem plays out.

Keybot the Quant

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's trading algorithm, Keybot the Quant, flips to the bear camp on Friday morning at SPX 5643. The critical bull/bear lines in the sand and demarcation into a cyclical bear market environment is NYA 19335 and SPX 5662. Once these failed, it was lights out. Sayonara. Then XLF 49.76 failed so it was time for Willie to sing that The Party's Over.

Keybot the Quant

CPC Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart; Traders Remain Complacent, Euphoric and Fearless Despite Stock Market Selloff; More Pain On the Way

It is fun watching this market behavior that is one for the record books. Despite the one-month selloff in stocks, it is as if it never happened, traders and investors remain bigtime bullish ready to buy any dip. It is hilarious . Human greed knows no bounds. The bull party is never-ending as the low put/calls verify. It is midnight and the band has to wrap things up but the crowd will not stop groovin'. Million Miles Away. The chicks are swinging and dancing to the beat and do not want the stock market fun to end.

This bull party continues with traders buying any stock with a heartbeat singing and dancing despite the -7% drop in the SPX and loss of -10% and more in the Nazzy indexes. This is when everyone is too liquored-up and the haymakers start flying.

Since the complacency and fearlessness will not subside, the pain level is going to be turned up to 11, a la Spinal Tap. You dummies will have to pay with more stock market losses until you feel panic in your mind and heart. Keystone loves to see the panic and fear in the eyes as he takes the shares away and delivers the heads on a platter. It is fun. People need taught a lesson and brought to heel because they remain too complacent about the stock market; the selling pressure will continue.

In the prior CPC put/call ratio charts when Keystone was calling the top in February, a 200 to 800-point drawdown was expected and it was about 650 points (so far); not too shabby. The bag holders are still shocked they lost -30% of their money over the last month. One idiot said everyone on television said to buy in late February; he did and got hosed. It was a pump and dump, moron. The institutions were distributing shares to you, the sucka, so you can hold the bag. Keystone told the losers to go home and ask Mommy and Daddy for more money and come back and play again. Sucka's. Every stock market needs sucka's.

The last tradeable bottom was November and that low in the SPX was not breached until 10 days ago. The green circles show the bottoms; only one measly bottom due to panic and fear. Those other bottoms occurred due to euphoric bullish traders anxious to buy dips. We may have to go down another 650 points before you are taught a lesson. Would you like that? Well, we are going to go down due to the complacency it is only a question of how much.

Watch the SPX weekly chart. It will form positive divergence over the coming weeks and enable you to call the bottom. It will be interesting to see if it is a tradeable bottom like November with rampant fear and panic (when you want to buy) or if it is another cheesy bottom like the garbage shown above.

The red circles show the tops for the stock market due to the rampant fearlessness and euphoria. Traders must pay with their hides until they kneel in fear and panic, and then a true relief rally with legs will occur. The SPX weekly chart may potentially set up with possie d in 2 to 3 weeks. You do not have to guess; simply watch the chart and it will set up with positive divergence going forward and you can call the bottom on the weekly basis. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 3/25/25, at 5:12 AM EST: Wheee! Whoopie! The bulls refuse to stop partying. Everyday is fun and frolic with zero worries that the stock market can ever go down again. It is fun to watch. The put/calls drop like rocks as the SPX catapults 100 points higher after King Donnie proclaims that the tariffs will be lessened. The orange head balked with all his bravado tariff and trade talk over the last couple months. The charts verify that the minute he was elected, commodities ran higher, this is goods inflation, that accounted for the overall inflation buoyancy over the last 4 months. The current on-month data shows inflation subsiding a hair; of course it is because commodities, goods inflation, is pulling back after the 4-month run higher from November. Look at a chart, idiots. Service inflation is bumping along flat so the behavior in goods (commodities) dictates the path of overall inflation going forward. The orange light bulb went off in Donnie's head finally realizing it is the Trump Trade and Tariff War that causes the inflation. Donnie waters down the tariff talk and voila, the stock market rallies and talk of inflation subsides. The CPC drops to 0.76, and CPCE is down to 0.48, on the big up day for equities yesterday with traders and investors becoming MORE complacent and fearless about the stock market. Par-tay! Rock n Roll All Nite and party every day. You folks really need taught a harsh lesson, don't you? This is epic behavior hinting that we are in a major top (the long term SPX monthly chart is topped-out or will be within 2 months) probably far more significant than the dotom bubble of 1999-2002 or the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Perhaps King Donnie, donning his paper crown he got with his Burger King meal, will provide a twofer, becoming the modern-day Neville Chamberlain (World War III) and modern-day Herbert Hoover (Great Depression redux)? It is fascinating watching the final throes of America's crony capitalism system. The next decade will be nutso.

Note Added Saturday, 3/29/25: The SPX mini-crashes on Friday losing 112 points, -2%, dropping to 5581. Of course it did. There is finally a wee bit of fear coming into the stock market. If you keep beating folks, eventually they realize that it is unpleasant, starting to hurt, and they want it to stop. The CPC and CPCE put/calls move higher as expected with the mini-crash but are still not in the all-out capitulative panic mode. Is that on tap next week with a Black Monday or Black Tuesday or Black Wednesday? King Donnie's tariff day is Wednesday, 4/2/25, when the Trump Trade and Tariff War kicks into high gear, so that would be interesting if Trump flushes the US stock market down the toilet on hump day. The important low from 3/13/25 is 5505. The real trouble and mayhem begins below 5505, should it occur.

NVDA NVIDIA Daily Chart; Death Cross

The NVDA death cross was all the rage yesterday on business television and the internet. A death cross! Oh no! Hide the women and children! Anything but the death cross! All hope is lost! Calm down. Don't panic. The death cross is only one arrow in the technical quiver.

The death cross occurs when the 50-day moving average (MA) crosses down through the 200-day MA forecasting troubling bearish times and destruction ahead. Conversely, the golden cross is when the 50 pierces up through the 200 to signal happy days and rainbows and puppy dogs ahead. Neither is quite the case because the media does not understand the behavior of the crosses.

When a death cross occurs, it comes after many weeks and months of soggy prices that must roll the 50-day MA over and to the downside to set its sights on the 200. This takes time so typically when the death cross occurs, price bounces. The key is whether price remains below the 50 because, by definition, the 50 can only be dragged lower, and continue its slope lower, if price remains below the 50.

Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why we are never invited to parties, NVDA already begins bouncing before the death cross occurs. It makes sense since price is trending down for this year after those November and early-year highs. Price is stumbling sideways trying to regain its footing after the beat-down from Valentine's Day to early March. Talk about a jilted lover. Paul at Hyde.

The 50-day MA is 127 and dropping. Both the 50 and 200-day MA's are important so back kisses would be expected going forward. Very simply, when price comes up to back test the downward-falling 50-day MA, probably around 122-125, it will have to make a bounce or die decision. If price continues below the 50-day MA, the death cross remains valid and NVDA will be sick for many weeks forward. If NVDA pops back above the 50-day MA, the stock will stabilize, and then you can watch to see if the golden cross occurs in a few weeks to steer the chip ship around.

The daily chart hints that some additional upward buoyancy will occur with price perhaps to 122-125-ish. The weekly chart hints at a lot of sideways slop and chop ahead. The monthly chart, sorry to say for AI fanboys, is busted for NVDA. Based on the charts now, the path forward will be choppy sideways slop with a consistent downward bias probably through spring and summer into Fall. Thus, the death cross will probably maintain itself for a while.

The AI hype is rampant with daily promises of grandeur and yet no delivery of firm hard solid goods and examples exactly detailing how much money was saved. AI is keeping the softward engineers employed, at least for now. AI will allow call centers to can more employees and make your telephone experience even worse.

Will the billions in investment in AI chips and manhours prove worthwhile, or will companies be left holding the AI chip bag, only left to fry eggs on the overheating chips? The new chip will be called rubin after the scientist but what do you think of when you hear rubin? Of course, a reuben sandwich. Yuck. Nasty. It is an acquired taste. Some folks will crawl over crushed glass for a reuben sandwich but Keystone will pass on that and go with a BLT instead. Concerning the new reuben, er, rubin chip, people may take it or leave it like the sammich.

Keystone is not trading NVDA long or short currently. There is not much of a trade there long or short right now. Perhaps wait for the daily chart to move higher and form neggie d and that would be a potential area for a short; use the 2-hour to enter that if it becomes available. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday, 3/30/25: NVDA drops to 109.67. The prior low is 3/11/25 at 104.76. If 104.76 is lost, price is likely headed to the 75-95 landing zone.

US COVID-19 Infection Waves (New Cases Per Day) -- Content Sample of Soon-To-Be Published "Coronavirus Chronology" Books

Everyone is glad the COVID-19 pandemic is in the rearview mirror. Keystone continues preparing the Coronavirus Chronology books for publication. Writing the Coronavirus Chronology was a labor of love and done as a service to the United States of America. Keystone wrote for 4 to 6 hours per day, 7 days per week, for 3 years (2020-2023) chronicling each day of the COVID-19 pandemic. Paraphrasing Trotsky, Keystone was not interested in chronicling the pandemic, but the pandemic was interested in him.

The text is 1.2 million words the size of two War and Peace novels. In addition, Keystone provided nearly 1,000 COVID-19 infection charts for all the US states and countries around the world typically during the worst times of their infection waves. The Coronavirus Chronology will serve as the official historical document of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Any research on the pandemic or deep dive into details about the coronavirus saga should begin with the Coronavirus Chronology. The following books will probably be published this year;

Coronavirus Chronology Volume 1 Waves 1 through 4; Coronavirus Chronology Volume 2 Waves 5 and 6; Coronavirus Chronology Volume 3 Waves 7a, 7b and 8; Coronavirus Chronology Overview; Coronavirus Chronology Conclusions; Coronavirus Chronology Endemic Phase February 2023 to 2025; Coronavirus Chronology Timeline 2019 through 2025.

The infection wave chart above for the US daily new cases shows the 8 pandemic waves with wave 6 the worst. The world's daily new cases chart displays 10 waves during the pandemic. It is quite a saga and the only place where the whole sordid tale exists is the Coronavirus Chronology.

Keystone wrote 104 articles during the pandemic spaced at 10-day intervals. After each article was published on The Keystone Speculator blog, updates were provided for each day between each article. You have to be crazy to dedicate 3 years to such a task but Keystone knew it was important work that no one else would do, so he did it, and a little Asperger's high-concentration helps, too.

The chart above is posted to show that the Coronavirus Chronology is unmatched as the official document of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is especially impressive since Keystone had to number the infection waves as they occurred in real-time.

If anyone is currently researching anything concerning the COVID-19 pandemic, and you know what date the event or research item occurred, simply look it up at The Keystone Speculator blog in the archives in the right margin. For example, if you want to know what Dr Fauci said in a speech in May 2021, simply go back in the archives and find that Coronavirus Chronology article in that time frame and it will tell you everything you need to know about what Fauci said and then your research can branch out from there.

Keystone is reading through the entire saga and is about at the halfway point. It is amazing how much you can forget about the heinous pandemic; maybe we do not want to remember.

But there are plenty of funny anecdotal stories, too. For example, when the new Botswana/South Africa B11529 variant was identified as extremely serious, and the WHO needed to give it one of their asinine Greek letter names, the next in line was 'nu' pronounced 'new'. The WHO likely thought that designation would be ridiculed as the "new nu variant" so they went to the next letter that was 'xi'. That was funny because it is dirtbag Dictator Xi's name (communist China) and the WHO did not want to use that letter. So what was the next Greek letter that the WHO chose to call the Botswana/South Africa B11529 variant? Omicron.

The Coronavirus Chronology is the China Virus Bible. It chronicled all the information that you forgot. The Coronavirus Chronology allows you to relive the pandemic from start to finish, if you dare.

The chart above is posted so anyone involved in COVID-19 research can start calling out the 8 infection waves by the same numbers since it all matches the text of the soon-to-be published Coronavirus Chronology.

With a little luck, the first 3 volumes and the 1,000 covid infection charts will likely be published in May, maybe June. Keystone has been retired for a couple of decades and does not want the work to cut into his goof-off time especially since he already dedicated 3 years of his life to properly chronicle the COVID-19 pandemic.

Keystone only wanted the United States to have a proper historical record of the once in a century covid pandemic so he did it himself. Hundreds of thousands of international readers followed the Coronavirus Chronology during the pandemic that is, until Keystone was blacklisted and censored, which is all part of the saga as well.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's proprietary trading algo, Keybot the Quant, flips to the bull side today at SPX 5667. Commodities jump into the bull camp and the cyclical bull/bear lines in the sand, NYA 19295 and SPX 5666, are taken out to the upside by the bulls that give strength to the relief rally. Chairman Powell is on deck for hump day afternoon so the markets are theatrics until the Fed tells everyone how to trade.

Watch VIX 16.89. If stocks rally, but the VIX cannot fall below 16.89, the rally is garbage and will roll over and die. If VIX drops below 16.89, the relief rally in stocks is locked-in and headed higher. Powell is picking up his dovish wings at the cleaners tonight and also his necktie from the last meeting that had a jelly stain from the free buffet.

Keybot the Quant

SPX S&P 500 Weekly Chart

It is comical and standard fare. All the jackasses that did not call the top in the stock market are now calling the bottom--every day. People lost their money because their financial manager did not see the top, but the same fools call the same managers asking them what to do next. The dip-buyers are rabid willing to bet their home on a new rally.

The euphoric bullishness remains off the charts and is especially noticeable since everyone says it is not occurring. Folks may diss the market, but 10 minutes later they are buying stocks. Doesn't any of these idiots look at charts? No, they don't.

The red lines show the Keystone top call. It is nothing fancy or hard to do. Price kept making higher highs but ALL the indicators ran out of gas and began sloping down as price made the new highs. This is called negative divergence and is how you call the tops. Once the neggie d forms, there will be a neggie d spankdown in that timeframe. This is a weekly chart so a multi-week down move was forecasted and occurs.

The selloff is 4 weeks along and again, everybody and his bro are buying the dips, one moron after the other wanting to be the hero. Jesse Livermore they ain't. Look at the chart. What do you see? Nasty. The RSI moves below 50% into bear territory and is weak and bleak. Ditto the stochastics. The MACD, histogram and money flow are also weak and bleak. Sure, stocks are set-up for a relief rally in the very short-term looking at the daily chart, but the weekly chart above tells you that many weeks of weakness remain ahead.

Price has stabbed through the lower standard deviation band so a move back up to the middle band at 5953 is on the table going forward. The selling volume is massive and it is had to imagine how this would ever be overtaken by buying volume in the future. Institutions are locking in profits and leave Joe Sixpack and Carmelita Sucka holding the bag of excrement at the top. Just think of all the television hype since the Fall with one commentator after another pumping and dumping telling you to, "buy, buy, buy!" Well, anyone that chased stocks above 5800 on the hype, and took the shares that the smart money was distributing, got, "hosed, hosed, hosed."

The pink ADX box shows that the strong trend higher in the stock market ended at the end of last summer around Labor Day. That is another tell of a top. The strong trend higher is gone but the index keeps making higher highs; you know something is amiss.

The Aroon red line is humorous. Another reason for the top, Keystone discussed all this in prior charts when he was calling the top, was that all the bears were 100% bullish on stocks just like the bulls. That was funny. Now the red line spikes to 100% so all the bears are finally bearish again. Equally funny, is the Aroon green line that shows the bulls have not budged an inch. As discussed at the start or this post, the bulls remain super bullish even though the stock market is off about -7% from the record high. The bulls still need taught a lesson because there is no fear in the market. Stocks need to be bludgeoned until the bulls panic so the beatings will continue until moral improves.

The CPC put/call verifies the ongoing uber bullishness in the stock market despite the collapse in equity prices. The CPCE, however, did spike into panic and fear, for one day, creating the runway for the Friday stock market orgy, but is now down in complacent territory again. There are many metrics verifying that the bulls simply remain too bullish so additional spanks, smacks, and slaps are needed on the weekly basis.

The daily chart is set-up with some positive divergence and stocks need at least a dead-cat bounce to catch their breath. The fall from grace has been impressive. Fed Chairman Powell speaks on Wednesday so stocks will likely be in a holding pattern until he flaps either his dovish or hawkish wings and dictates how traders should trade. Typically, stocks are up 80% of the time on Tuesday and Wednesday into the Fed drama.

Happy St Patty's Day. It is springtime so Keystone is letting that famous Irishman, Pat-i-o Furniture, out of the shed. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 3/22/25: The SPX 50-week MA is the 5665 palindrome and the critical SPX 12-month MA, that separates a cyclical bull market from a cyclical bear market, is the ominous 5666. Monday above, Tuesday below, Wednesday above, Thursday below, Thursday above, Thursday below, Friday above. The week ends at SPX 5668.The stock market is spinning round like Natalie singing Hey Jack Kerouac. In the last minute of trading for the week, the market makers push the S&P 500 up over the major 5665-5666 demarcation line parking it there for the weekend. Of course they do. The saga will continue next week. This was the action all week long and yet not one talking head on the internet or television highlighted this drama. They simply do not know what to watch. If you are long the market, and the SPX slips back below 5665 and trends lower, you will lose a lot of money as the cyclical bear growls.

Note Added Sunday, 3/30/25: SPX drops to 5581. The prior low is 5505. Bad things would happen below 5505. 

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; 150-Day MA Potentially Rolling Over to Usher-In a Cyclical Bear Market

One of the key stock market indicators for a cyclical bull market versus a cyclical bear market is the slope of the SPX 150-day MA. If the 150-day is sloping higher, it is a cyclical bull market, like now, and if the moving average slopes lower, it is a a cyclical bear market. Last week, the 150-day MA is starting to flatten in preparation of rolling over.

By definition, the 150-day MA cannot slope lower unless price is below the moving average pulling it lower like a lead anchor. That is happening now. Price is down at 5639 way below the 150-day MA at 5839, two hundo points below, so it continues to pull and tug the 150 lower.

Thus, the stock market remains in a cyclical bull market as per the slope of the SPX 150-day MA but watch it like a hawk since the 150-day MA may roll over and start sloping lower which would usher-in a cyclical bear market.

The critical SPX 12-mth MA cross and NYA 40-wk MA cross metrics have both failed ushering in a cyclical bear market. The slope of the 150-day MA does not yet join the party. Come on, little girl, have some fun with the bears. So Caught Up In You, little girl.

Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why we are never invited to parties, you can verify if the stock market has fallen into a cyclical bear market pattern by following the 3 metrics mentioned. If the SPX-12-mth MA cross and NYA 40-wk MA cross turn bullish reversing the cyclical bear back into a cyclical bull market and join the 150-day MA that starts sloping higher again, the future is bright for stocks that will rally to new highs. Bulls will be saved. It seems like a stretch.

If the SPX 12-mth MA cross and NYA 40-wk MA cross remain in the cyclical bear market pattern (see the other charts), and the 150-day MA shown above rolls over lower, it is all over but the crying. The cyclical bear market will be confirmed going forward and the carnage will deepen on Wall Street. It looks like the easier path, but Fed Chairman Powell speaks Wednesday so anything can happen.

If you are a bull long the stock market, you need to get on your knees and pray for the SPX to run above 5839 and the SPX 150-day MA to start sloping higher to give you salvation and save your sorry arse. If you are long, and the SPX 150-day MA flattens (like now) and rolls over lower, to join the already negative SPX 12-mth MA cross and NYA 40-wk MA cross, you are going to lose boatloads of money.

After all these many months, the bulls may finally be breaking down. Foggy Mountain Breakdown with humble Master Scruggs holding court. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 3/22/25: The SPX 50-week MA is the 5665 palindrome and the critical SPX 12-month MA, that separates a cyclical bull market from a cyclical bear market, is the ominous 5666. Monday above, Tuesday below, Wednesday above, Thursday below, Thursday above, Thursday below, Friday above. The week ends at SPX 5668.The stock market is spinning round like Natalie singing Hey Jack Kerouac. In the last minute of trading for the week, the market makers push the S&P 500 up over the major 5665-5666 demarcation line parking it there for the weekend. Of course they do. The saga will continue next week. This was the action all week long and yet not one talking head on the internet or television highlighted this drama. They simply do not know what to watch. If you are long the market, and the SPX slips back below 5665 and trends lower, you will lose a lot of money as the cyclical bear growls. The 150-day MA at 5848 continues sloping slightly higher but the longer that price remains below 5848, it will pull the 150-day MA down and likely flatten it, and roll it over to the downside, creating cyclical bear market pain going forward. Keep watching it.

Note Added Sunday, 3/30/25: SPX drops to 5581. The prior low is 5505. Bad things would happen below 5505. The 150-day MA is flattening and just took a slight dip lower at 5852. You are watching the conception of a cyclical bear market going forward.

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; 12-Mth MA Fails Ushering-In Cyclical Bear Market

 

One of the key stock market indicators for a cyclical bull market versus a cyclical bear market is the SPX 12-month MA cross. Last week, the SPX collapses through the 12-month MA at 5663 to a low at 5504 and price ended the week at 5639, below the 12-mth MA, ushering-in a cyclical bear market.

If you are a bull long the stock market, you need to get on your knees and pray for SPX 5663 and higher to give you salvation and save your sorry arse. If you are long, and the SPX remains below 5663 trending lower, you are going to lose a lot of money.

After all these many months, the bears tell the bulls Goodbye to You. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 3/22/25: The SPX 50-week MA is the 5665 palindrome and the critical SPX 12-month MA, that separates a cyclical bull market from a cyclical bear market, is the ominous 5666. Monday above, Tuesday below, Wednesday above, Thursday below, Thursday above, Thursday below, Friday above. The week ends at SPX 5668.The stock market is spinning round like Natalie singing Hey Jack Kerouac. In the last minute of trading for the week, the market makers push the S&P 500 up over the major 5665-5666 demarcation line parking it there for the weekend. Of course they do. The saga will continue next week. This was the action all week long and yet not one talking head on the internet or television highlighted this drama. They simply do not know what to watch. If you are long the market, and the SPX slips back below 5665 and trends lower, you will lose a lot of money as the cyclical bear growls.

Note Added Sunday, 3/30/25: SPX drops to 5581. The prior low is 5505. Bad things would happen below 5505.