RGTI, QBTS, IONQ, QUBT and QTUM Daily Charts; Quantum Computing Stocks Crash after Diss from Emperor Jensen at NVDA

Quantum computing stocks take the pipe today. Emperor Jensen at NVDA threw shade at the growing quantum computing sector saying real strides are 15 to 30 years away. The quantum computing stocks are cut off at the knees most losing half their value today. That's going to leave a mark.

Timmy Trader took $100K of client's money and put it into quantum stocks telling them he will provide better returns than anyone. Irate customers are calling him screaming that they have lost one-half of their money in only a few short days! Timmy spouts the line he was taught by his boss telling clients 'not to forget that they are long-term investors'. He cannot take the pressure anymore. Timmy runs across the trading floor towards the window and jumps. Fortunately, he is on the ground floor.

Analysts and strategists were on television proclaiming quantum stocks as the Second Coming. They lost their shirt. Quantum computing companies are mad that Jensen dissed them cratering their stocks. How dare he overhype the artificial intelligence gig while he does not let us overhype our quantum computing scheme? Jensen only cares about selling AI chips. He does not care what people do with them; as long as they keep coming back to buy more, baby.

The quantum computing stocks are beaten like a rented mule. RGTI, Rigatoni (Rigetti Computing), oh my, receives a -45% bludgeoning today. It was slaughtered. RGTI peaks at 21.42 and drops to 10.04.

QBTS, it may as well be called Q bites, as in bite the dust, crashes -36%. D-Wave is pushing-back at Emperor Jensen's unkind words for quantum computing so the drama has more legs. QBTS CEO Alan Baratz, in a CNBC interview, proclaims that NVDA CEO Jensen Huang is "dead wrong" saying that commercial viability for quantum computing is a decade or three away. It is blasphemy. Baratz decrees, "We at D-Wave are commercial today." They will not be sending each other Christmas cards anymore.  QBTS peaks at 11.41 and crashes to a low at 4.65. Ouch. No wonder D-Wave has its panties in a bunch.

IONQ is next to sh*t the bed and a -39% drop today is a notable bed sh*tting indeed. IONQ, looks like it needs employees that have an IQ after peaking at 54.74 and collapsing to 25.92.

QUBT bit-it, as in bit the big one, crashing -43% today. Quantum Computing, the board was up all night thinking-up that company name, peaks at 27.15 and drops to 9.91 the worst performer in the group. It is ridden hard and put away wet. Nasty. Quantum drops -64% off its peak in mid-December. Wow.

Anthony the single guy in the office was in the break room before Christmas bragging to pretty Emily, the new administrative assistant, that he held stock in all the quantum computing companies and planned to retire young as these stocks go to the moon. Now he is crying into his cafe latte. Emily told Anthony that he is a loser, with an L on his forehead, and she will never go out with him. She is Respectable. Mick and the boys.

QTUM, that can be called sputum, loses only -5% today. Defiance defied the big losses in the other plays. QTUM peaks at 90.67 and drops to 80.45.

The smoke will need to clear for a few days in the quantum computing arena. There remains an electrical smell in the building. All the tech hype (AI and quantum) these days is reminiscent of the dotcom bubble in 1999 and 2000.

Every company was a winner in 1999 and the next great thing, until it was not. Folks, you can have all the AI and quantum your heart desires, but it will not fix your clogged toilet, or change your flat tire, or give life-advice to your teenager. The gains in AI and quantum are incremental for a company that will question if the investment is worth it. As the economy turns south, less money will be spent on technology and the advances in this pie in the sky AI and quantum computing arena will slow. Keystone has not played the stocks above long or short and does not plan to in the near future. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

The Keystone Speculator's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips back to the short side at SPX 5955. Pass the Dramamine. Bulls need stronger banks and lower volatility. Bears need weaker copper.

Keybot the Quant

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips long yesterday morning at SPX 5988. Bulls need higher copper and banks to run stocks higher and copper is trading higher today. Bears need VIX above 17, otherwise, they got buptkis.

Keybot the Quant

Keybot the Quant Algorithm Turn Signals in 2024

Keystone's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips direction 33 times during 2024 resulting in a +18% return. As good as that is, the benchmark S&P 500 index, the SPX, the United States stock market, gains +23% in 2024 outperforming the quant by 5 percentage-points.

The SPX chart shows the long (green) and short (red) turn signals by the algorithm during 2024. The SPX ran from the lower left at 4770 to the upper right at 5882. The new year 2025 begins at SPX 5882 with the quant on the short side in the PSQ ETF. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Keybot the Quant

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

The Keystone Speculator's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips to the bear side at SPX 5899 at the opening bell this morning. Volatility, banks, retail stocks and chips sh*t the bed creating the stock market negativity.

Keybot the Quant

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; H&S; Potential Island Reversal or Gap Fill; 20-day MA Resistance at 6024; 50-day MA Support at 5940

Christmas, and Kwanzaa, celebrations are over. The wrapping paper and Boxing Day boxes are in the trash at the curb. Several gifts are not yet functional because the batteries were forgotten, as occurs every holiday. Keystone received a nice sweater, as long as you do not mind one sleeve longer than the other. New Year's Eve is on tap next when the drunks crash on the local highways.

Two trading days remain in 2024 and then Thursday, 1/2/25, is the first day of trading with Baby New Year. King Donnie Trump, the orange-headed bloviating carnival clown, will retake the Oval Office this month that he disgraced on 1/6/21 when he refused to stop the Capitol Hill Riot, and instead cheered as Americans hurt and maimed each other, because the violence fed his sick narcissistic ego. Everyone hopes he has a better legacy than his first term which was a 'whining crybaby sore loser'. King Cry Baby.

Anyhoo, the SPX daily chart is interesting. In early November, price gaps higher from 5775 to 5870 (orange circle) producing a gap big enough to drive a truck through. That is a one hundo instantaneous gain after Donnie won the presidential election. Price has sat on this island at 5870 and above ever since. The island has three mountains and also a palm tree. The price behavior sets the stage for a potential island reversal pattern if price comes down to 5870, and then fails directly back through the gap, down to 5775 in a heartbeat. On the other hand, price may simply trend lower and fill the huge gap on the way down which would be a gap fill and not an island reversal.

The three mountains on the island form a H&S (head and shoulders, no, not the shampoo) pattern. The head is at 6091, neckline at 5870, so that is 221 points difference. Thus, the lower target is 5649 if the neckline fails at 5870. That would get everyone's attention.

Price receives the neggie d spankdown as previously forecasted and explained in early December. Price teased the 5870 support but bounced back up to form that right shoulder. Note how price collapses through both the 20 and 50-day MA's in one fell swoop. Those are key moving averages so price needs to show respect and come back up for a back kiss and test to prove it wants to go lower. Price comes back to the 50, and then falls for a day again, but then catapults higher up through the 50 back up to back test the 20.

The SPX plays at the 20-day MA resistance at 6024 for a couple days, and it holds, and then collapses down to the 50-day MA support at 5940, which holds, and then price recovers during the Friday session to end the week smack-dab in the middle of the 20-day MA overhead resistance and 50-day MA support. Price will exit one of these two MA's, maybe on Monday, and that will tell you the direction forward for a few days and perhaps beyond (if the 5870 fails it is likely lights out for the stock market).

We shall see if the critical 5870 fails before or after the crowd sings "Auld Lang Syne." The bulls will be singing "When the Saints Go Marching In" with Satchmo if the SPX jumps above 6024 while the bears will rejoice and sing "It's a Heartache" to begin the new year if the S&P 500 collapses below the key 5870 heading far lower. Write 5870 on a sticky note and put it on your forehead.

Bonnie is an interesting story. As she prepared her first album, her voice turned raspy and scratchy, and it would be permanent, and she was sad thinking that her singing career was over before it could even start. She released the single anyway and her raspy voice was an instant global success. She immediately catapulted to international fame. Her voice was unique. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday, 12/30/24, at 11:46 AM EST: The bulls slip on a banana peel and fall down the cellar steps this morning. The SPX drops to 5869 testing the critical 5870 support, that happened fast, and bounced. There will likely be additional tests of this support. The Fed has its jackboot on the throat of volatility to stop the selling and it succeeds with SPX recovering to 5914. The 50-day MA is 5942 and failed out of the gate so price may want to go up for a back test. For now, the SPX remains on the island.

Note Added Tuesday, 12/31/24, at 2:05 PM EST: The SPX is teasing again on the last day of trading for 2024. The S&P 500 drops to 5870.45 a couple minutes ago and bounces. Price is testing the critical 5870 support which is the edge of the island. Bounce or die. What will happen? Bears will win as long as VIX stays above 17.03 but if VIX drops below 17.03, the bulls will battle back.

META (Facebook) Weekly and Monthly Charts; Rising Wedges; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violations; Euphoric Complacency

META, the company with the drooping breasts logo, still called Facebook, that should be called Mombook, is singing its swan song. Isn't it funny how the companies change their names but they are still called the old name? Facebook changes to Meta but everyone calls it Facebook. Google changes to Alphabet but everyone calls it Google. Twitter changes to X but everyone calls it Twitter. Humans are creatures of habit.

Anyhoo, the META weekly and monthly charts are ugly like a lot of the pictures on Facebook. On the weekly chart, price printed the higher high a week ago and it comes with a red rising wedge pattern (bearish) and overbot stochastics agreeable to a pullback on the weekly basis. The red lines for the chart indicators show universal negative divergence across all indicators. She's cooked. Crispy-fried. And everybody and his brother are buying it because the guy on television said so. If you are going long META, you are running into a buzzsaw.

The neggie d spanks price lower last week, and META recovers a couple percent this week, but the chart would be expected to continue lower into a multi-week pullback. There is no reason for price to come up for another record high since all the indicators are now out of gas and cannot provide any more upside fuel. Price violated the upper band so the middle band at 566 is on the table and lower band at 501.

The low in that chart is 586 so call that the bottom rail of the wedge. If that trend line fails, and price drops below 586, it is likely lights out for META and Zuck will be crying in his cafe latte after wind-surfing. The two largest volume weeks over the last 9 months are both sell weeks indicating that the smart money is sneaking out the back door handing shares to the sucka's Joe Sixpack, Carlos Bagholder, the Uber driver, and Carmelita, that hangs out down on Alvarado Street by the Pioneer Chicken stand.

The ADX shows that the strong trend higher in META ended n the first quarter of the year and the move higher ever since is not considered a strong trend. The Aroon shows that the META bulls remain firmly in the bull camp and the META bears also remain fully in the bull camp. That is funny. You know what happens when everyone is bullish, right? The weekly chart is ugly and price would be expected to fall for multiple weeks forward (through January).

The META monthly chart blew Keystone away. It was not expected to be that negative. Right away, the Aroon is a flashing neon light. Every single META bull is convinced that the stock will move higher and higher for months to come (the long-term) and every single META bear also believes that the stock will move higher forever. Pause for laughter. These idiots are going to be disappointed going forward.

The red rising wedge on the monthly chart is bearish. Price violates the upper band so the middle band at 425, and rising sharply, is on the table. The RSI and stochastics are overbot agreeable to a pullback. It is an ugly chart. The red lines show neggie d stating that price has topped-out on the monthly basis except for the MACD line that remains long and strong.

There are only a couple more trading days in the month so the MACD likely does not have time to drop enough to form neggie d but you will have to wait to see how it plays out on Tuesday. Even so, the January candlestick for the monthly chart will likely begin with a matching price high, and if META sells off as the weekly chart dictates, neggie d will form for the MACD on the monthly and the long-term top for META will be in over the coming days. Isn't that something?

If the bulls pump hard to try and send price up for another high and manage to keep the MACD on the monthly long and strong, the top will then occur a month later. She is close and it would not be surprising to see the January monthly chart set up completely negative calling the long-term top for Facebook, er Meta. The ADX on the monthly chart shows the upside remaining in a strong trend but the ADX is a lagging indicator and that strong trend will evaporate if the ADX falls a few points to below 30.

Keystone is not in META long or short right now but obviously the play would be on the short side from here forward for at least a few weeks. If you are a META long holder, and bragging to everyone about the stock, you probably Can't Believe We're Here. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Friday, 12/27/24, at 4:00 PM EST: The session ends the day and week with META at 599.81 pennies shy of 6 hundo. The all-time record high is 637.89 on 12/11/24. CEO Zuckerberg is wearing virtual reality goggles using AI to try and find his car keys.

XLV Healthcare ETF Weekly and Monthly Charts; H&S; Rally on Weekly Basis to Begin but Monthly Chart Remains Bearish for Long-Term

Medic! Medic! XLV needs resuscitation (that's a ten-dollar college word). Doctors give me the cure. Bad Case of Loving You. No pill is gonna cure that ill. Lots of pundits are saying healthcare is a great long trade going forward since it is already beaten down. That is a stupid reason. Why not look at the charts so you will know for sure?

We can look at the weekly spaghetti first. Price is testing the neckline of an H&S (head and shoulders) currently so it is bounce or die time. A failure from the 137 neck, with the head at 156, would target 118 that just so happens to be all that strong price support during 2022 and 2023. A failure of the H&S sending price to Hades will make the television pundits look foolish for touting the healthcare stocks.

The falling green wedge is a bullish pattern. Price would be expected to bounce from it and it did, this week, with XLV at 140 three points above the neckline critical support. The green lines show possie d and want price to rally higher, however, the red lines for the MACD line and the money flow are weak and bleak wanting another low in price on the weekly basis.

Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why we are never invited to any fun parties, price will want to come back down for another look at the neck and the price low from last week (blue line). At that time, say a week or so out, the MACD and money flow will likely be positively diverged and confirm that the bottom is in for XLV on the weekly basis and a rally should begin.

Price has violated the lower band, that is 137 same as the neckline, so the middle band at 148 is on the table. If price rallies that high it may want 152 for a gap fill. The ADX pink box shows that the confirmed strong trend higher for XLV ended 3 months ago. The Aroon indicates that all the bears remain bearish on XLV and about three-quarters of the XLV bulls remain bearish. This is a glaring contrarian indicator. Everyone is loaded up on the bear side of the boat indicating that a relief rally is on tap soon or at any time forward.

So the XLV weekly chart is very constructive and bullish and you can catch the exact bottom in a week or so to ride a multi-week rally higher. However, there are dark clouds and skies waiting for the XLV healthcare ETF on a monthly (long-term) basis.

The weekly chart is pretty but the monthly chart is ugly. The monthly chart is bleeding red which is never a good sign. But how can that be? Keystone just said the XLV is setting up for a rally on a weekly basis. Remember, technical trading is playing multi-dimensional chess where time is the dimension not space. You must play the minute, hourly, daily, weekly, and monthly charts against one another to paint a path forward for price.

On the monthly chart, price prints a clear top that is an easy call. Price makes a higher high, while forming a rising red wedge (bearish), and universal negative divergence across all chart indicators (red lines). Price was set up for a neggie d spanddown on the monthly basis and she receives her spanking now displaying red cheeks. The problem with the monthly chart, for longs, is the weak and bleak chart indicators. The RSI and stochastics are each about to slip below 50% into bear territory on a long-term basis. The MACD just performs a negative cross. The other indicators are weak and bleak wanting to see a lower low in price on the monthly basis. There is no reason for price to come back up to new highs again.

The ADX shows that the last strong trend higher for the rally ended as 2019 started. The Aroon shows that nearly all the XLV bulls remain bullish and almost all the XLV bears also remain bullish. Everyone is bullish on the monthly basis believing that in the long-term XLV will be a lot higher. Idiots. The chart tells you the complete opposite.

Typically, as a weekly chart sets-up with positive divergence, one or two of the indicators on the monthly chart would also show possie d and conspire with the weekly chart to boost price for a multi-week rally. Not this time. The monthly chart is ugly. This hints that the multi-week rally for XLV that should start over the next couple weeks may not be that strong or have much legs higher. If you are playing XLV or healthcare stocks, it would probably be wise to consider ditching the shares as the rally occurs and be nimble, since that multi-week rally may not have much legs before another smackdown occurs because of the long-term negativity in the monthly chart.

Is all that mumbo-jumbo above clear as mud? XLV is set up to bottom over the next couple weeks and then rally a few weeks but then die again due to a horrible monthly chart that wants lower lows in price. A failure of the neck at 137 for the H&S targets 118 and if that fails, well, bend over if you are still holding on to healthcare stocks. You will lose all your money and become a Basket Case at the asylum, and give yourself the creeps. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Friday, 12/27/24, at 4:04 PM EST: The session ends the day and week with XLV at 138.96. The all-time record high is 158.33 on 9/4/24.

SOX Semiconductors Index Weekly Chart; Sideways Symmetrical Triangle; Big Decision On Tap; Bounce or Die

The semiconductors have carried the US stock market higher over the last couple years with AI leading the tech orgy. The chips are on patrol in the Big City making sure stocks stay up forever so the wealthy class can keep enjoying their lives. Like in life, however, a fork in the road appears, and a decision is required, and semi's must choose up or down.

The sideways symmetrical triangle has been forming for the last half year. Price is now squeezed into the apex and has to decide which side it wants to exit. There is no more space available to move sideways. It is time to sh*t or get off the pot as dear old Mom would say. The vertical blue line on the side of the triangle is from 4250 to 5760 eyeballing it. That is a 1510 difference. The vertical blue line inside the triangle is from 4480 to 5625 so that is 1145 difference.

Keystone sometimes prefers to use the vertical line where the second touch of price occurs since the triangle is firmly in place but both numbers can be used to identify ranges. The bull breakout higher would be from 5180 (when price exits the triangle). The bear breakdown lower would be from 4980.

So now we can get mathy. If the bulls can push price above 5180, and it is at 5175 now, price will target 6325 to 6690. The bulls will be throwing confetti, guzzling Fed wine, and singing "Rock and Roll All Night." Tongue action. The upside orgy in chips and the broad stock market will be so obscene that it will make Caligula blush. It will be party time for bulls.

If the bears can push price below 4980, SOX will target 3470 to 3835. Look at that. There's a juicy gap at 3800-ish that will need filling (orange circle). The bears will be slashing the bulls with the blood flowing at Wall and Broad. It will be death and destruction of semiconductors and the broad stock market. We will be on the "Eve of Destruction" like Barry sings. It will be mayhem and that means party time for bears.

There are a couple other gaps down at 2600-2800 so that will be on the docket in the future. It would be a -50% failure in chips over the next year or two.

For now, the markets await the semi decision to bounce from 5180, or die from 4980. What's it gonna be, boy? Well, now what's it gonna be, boy? Bounce, or die? Let me sleep on it, I'll give you an answer in the morning. "Paradise by the Dashboard Light." Choose your poison. Keystone is not holding any chip positions long or short right now.

If you want to trade the chips, you may as well wait for the SOX decision. If she breaks out higher, there is plenty of time to buy the chips. If she collapses, you will be glad you are not a bagholder looking like a jackass, and then you can enter at far lower prices in the future. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Friday, 12/27/24, at 4:13 PM EST: The session ends the day and week with SOX at 5123 remaining inside the symmetrical triangle. SOX has not made the decision on which way to exit the triangle but it knows it must. SOX will think about it this weekend and arrive on Monday with the bounce or die verdict, as the peak in the new moon occurs. Bulls win at 5180 and higher while bears win sub 4980. The decision will knock your socks off.

NDX Nazzy 100 Weekly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Strong Trend Higher Is Lost; Smart Money Jumping Ship

The NDX is not singing Christmas carols instead it is singing its swan song. Everybody and his brother are leveraged long the stock market especially tech stocks. The young tech workers have lots of bucks so they are buying tech stocks. Joe Sixpack heard a guy on television telling him to buy, buy, buy, so that is what he did. Carlos Bagholder said his broker told him to go double-leveraged long in AI stocks and chips. It is funny stuff.

Look at the chart, idiots. Can't any of you read a chart? No, you can't. That is why you are here. The NDX is the top hot tech stocks in the market that have driven the broader stock market to historic record highs this year. The AI hype along with government and Fed largess reward America's wealthy class, that own the stock market, with riches beyond all their dreams. Well, the party is ending and it would be best to leave now before Cousin Larry barfs on your shoes.

The red rising wedge is a bearish chart pattern. Price moves into the apex, like now, and then collapses. As price prints matching or higher highs over the last month, the red lines for the indicators clearly show universal negative divergence across all indicators. She's cooked. The MACD line is trying to squeeze out some remaining fumes that may help price remain buoyant for the last 4 days before 2025 begins, but the neggie d should not be ignored. Divergences are the most powerful force in technical trading.

The stochastics are overbot agreeable to a selloff ahead. The blue circle shows the smart money selling their high-flying tech stocks like gangbusters. Comically, Joe Sixpack and Carlos Bagholder are eager to get in on the hot action and are buying the stocks the institutions are selling. Sucka's. Why would you buy something when the guy is selling it to you and then planning to sneak out the back door?

Price violated the upper standard deviation band so the middle band, that is also the 20-wk MA, at 20363, is on the table, and also the lower band at 18.6K. The pink boxes for the ADX show the strong trend higher in price in 2023, that petered out, then reasserted itself early this year, but petered out bigtime, and even though price grows to the sky, the ADX is screaming that it is not a strong trend higher and caution is required. The rally floats higher on hype.

The Aroon red line shows that 80% of the tech bears are now bullish and buying tech stocks. That is funny. The Aroon green line shows that all the tech bulls remain nearly 100% all-in on the long side. Everyone is on one side of the boat partying. Seriously, are you too stupid to not know what is going to happen going forward on a weekly basis?

The chart is a piece of crap and since it is poised to drop into a multi-week decline, that means the high-flying tech stocks will fall into ta multi-week decline. If you replace NDX with XLK you can see that it is the same chart. XLK is cooked and poised to begin a multi-week decline. Bring up the COMPQ weekly, the Nazzy Comp, it is same-o chart. It is over for tech, folks, on the weekly basis. A ba-dee, a ba-dee, a be-dee, dat's all folks.

The 18200 level is strong price support during the year. From 21800 down to 18.2K is about a -17% drop so a -20% drop-ish in NDX is a reasonable expectation moving forward on a weekly basis.

Keystone is not holding any XLK long or short right now but obviously the play forward would be short. Let's take a look at the daily and hourly charts to see if we can nail down the timing for the top. The XLK daily chart is in neggie d as it prints matching highs for the month. The shorter term charts are not telling much and it is the end of the year goofiness.

The Santa Claus rally is typically the day before Christmas Eve to two days into the new year thus, 12/23/24 through 1/3/25. The bulls, always anxious to buy any dips in this overhyped stock market, jump on the Santa train and are riding his fat arse into the new year, or so they hope. Santa's knees are shaky and may buckle at any moment.

It is not Christmas without Darlene Love belting out "Christmas (Baby Please Come Home)." She always had a powerful voice coming out of that small body. She sang it on Letterman each year starting in 1986. Fantastico. Nowadays, few small girls have that power. Jade Bird comes to mind. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Friday, 12/27/24, at 4:17 PM EST: The session ends the day and week with NDX at 21473 sitting on the 20-day MA S/R at 21504. XLK ends the week at 237.54 sitting on its 20-day MA at 237.64. Yes, XLK must decide to bounce, or die. NDX must also make a bounce or die decision from this key moving average on Monday morning.