JNK:LQD Bond Ratio Weekly Chart; Traders Willing to Take-On Maximum Risk

Use the JNK:LQD ratio as a gauge of risk. As the ratio moves higher, it shows a greater taste for risk. It is way up in the right top corner. Dancing girls are displaying their wares as they prancy on top of conference room tables. Drunk CEO's applaud the risky behavior and celebrate the New Gilded Age. La-la-la-la. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 and CPC and CPCE Put/Call Ratios Daily Charts; Significant Stock Market Top At Hand

The stock market topping drama continues. It was mid-January, 3 weeks or so ago, when Keystone first pointed out the low put/call ratios signaling rampant complacency and fearlessness in the stock market signaling a substantial top. The SPX tops out on 1/28/25 at 6128.18 the all-time record high.

Price is spanked lower due to the rampant market euphoria but the dip-buyers waste no time to jump back into the stock market. The Donnie Trump tariff bluster without bite, AI happy talk, and Fed maintain buoyant stocks.

The CPC comes down again late January to highlight the lower top in the SPX and stocks go down again but the whole move off the record high is only about 130 points. That is nothing compared to what you expect for such rampant complacency. It is a mere pittance as the waiter says when Keystone leaves a tip.

The rampant complacency and excessive euphoric bullishness is comical. One trader is throwing darts at the stock pages and buying whatever tickers are hit. Another investor hired a monkey to point at the stock pages to pick stocks. The Uber driver, doorman, shoeshine boy, Joe Sixpack, Carmelita Sucka and Antoine Bagholder decided to form an investment group and their brain trust just went triple-leveraged long the stock market. Young folks that own homes are grabbing-up home equity lines and then buying leveraged ETF's with the money to take advantage of easy stock market gains that will go up forever. That never ends well.

As an aside, the ETF house of cards is about to come into play. Keystone has been warning about it the last few years. Everybody and his bro, even Uncle Schmo, and drunkard Joey, are long the market using ETF's. Mutual funds and all that jive is so passe, like heroin, so ETF's are the favorite flavor nowadays. The massive amount of money in the ETF's is mind-boggling and guess what? It can all disappear with a key stroke. In the old days, you would call the broker and wait a day or more before positions were sold but now it is done in a millisecond--by everyone!! When this baby starts flushing, it is going to be a sight if the ETF holders all panic. It will be a blast and fun to watch; the fear and panic in people's eyes as they lose their shirts; it is priceless.

Stocks recover again over the last couple weeks only due to the hype talk since technically the charts are spent. The SPX prints a high on Friday at 6127.47 only 71 pennies from a new record high. That was so close why didn't it just print?

This is a very atypical topping pattern. The SPX is expected to lose from 200 to 800 points going forward, maybe more. This should be in the process of playing out now but Pope Powell, King Donnie, and Emperor Jensen are conspiring to pump stock prices to the sky to help themselves and their greedy friends to as much money as possible.

She is going to fall big starting anytime. The last 3 weeks of baby games are pretty much played out. Save yourself. If you are long, you are going to get your face ripped off. US markets are closed on Monday for Presidents Day. Maybe a Black Tuesday? On Tuesday Afternoon we will see what futures are past. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Hump Day Morning, 2/19/25, at 4:39 AM EST: Black Tuesday was too shy to come out of the bushes. Chips were in a good mood to begin the holiday-shortened week driving the SPX to a new all-time record high at 6129.63 and new all-time closing high at 6129.58. The SPX daily chart prints a hanging man candlestick hinting that a trend change cometh. Almost....... Now! ... Sell!  It is fun to watch; lambs joyfully walking to slaughter.

XLF Financials ETF Weekly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Price Extended

The banks, insurers and financial companies had a good 1-1/2 year with XLF catapulting higher from 30 to 52, a humungous +73% gain. The Wall Street fat cats are smoking fine cigars dabbing the ashes on the faces of the huddled masses. The RSI and stochastics are overbot agreeable to a pullback. The red rising wedge is bearish with price teasing a breakdown from the lower trend line.

The red lines show that has price makes matching and higher highs for 3 weeks running, all the chart indicators are out of gas. There is no more fuel to take banks higher on the weekly basis. This is when you are flying down the highway and all of a sudden the vehicle jerks a little bit, then sputter, sputter, choke, jerk, darn, its running out of gas, pull over quick, but not there, it is a cliff.

Price is teasing that upper band so the 53 may be tagged before she reverses hard on the weekly basis. The middle band at 49, and rising, and lower band at 45.23, and rising, are on the table going forward on the weekly basis. That 47-ish level may be solid support is she starts collapsing to the downside.

Price is extended above the moving average ribbon so a mean reversion lower is needed. The ADX pink box shows that price is still in a strong uptrend. But note that as price makes its highs over the last year, the ADX is dropping; neggie d. If the ADX falls below 28-ish, now at 34, the strong uptrend would be officially over. The ADX is a lagging and confirmation indicator.

The Aroon displays the same comical behavior as many other charts. The green line shows that all the bank bulls remains bullish believing that banks will go up forever. Humorously, the red line shows that all the bank bears believe that that the banks will go up forever. This uber bullishness on banks has been ongoing for the almost one year. The bulls and bears are partying on one side of the boat, with Keystone the only one on the other side and he is stepping into a life raft and when he does the USS-XLF will probably capsize. You will get taught a lesson if you hang out with those banksters.

Price should receive a spankdown going forward starting now. XLF may want to squeeze-out 53, if she does it will probably be over the next few days, then a multi-week move lower the rest of this month and much of March. A month from now, it would not be surprising to see XLF down at 47-ish. Keystone does not have any position in XLF long or short currently but obviously short is the path forward for the next few weeks.

Friday is Valentines Day. On their way to a date, men will stop at the local drug or convenience store, to see what they can buy real quick to make their honey happy, that they hope honey will think a lot of thought went into it. The wine and roses keep the love boat afloat, that may be adrift, and needing a rope. Oh my. Jenny is about to get wicked. Have mercy. Where are the heart pills. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Friday Morning, 2/14/25, Valentine's Day, at 6:06 AM EST: XLF is at 51.70. Get yourself out before the multi-week downslide begins. It is a double-top, or M-top.

Note Added Sunday, 2/16/25: Berkshire Hathaway's Warren Buffett continues throwing BAC shares overboard also C. He cannot get rid of the bank shares fast enough. Isn't he touted as the bigtime smart investor? Buffett is ditching banks so why would you be buying them? Maybe it is best to take advice from Jimmy Buffett and spend a day in Margaritaville. 

CRB Commodity Index Weekly Chart; Goods Inflation; Donnie Trump Tariff War Creates Inflation

The CRB clearly shows the goods inflation taking place and verified in this mornings data. The catapult higher in the CRB occurs exactly when Donnie Trump is reelected to office. He brags that he is Tariff Man wearing orange tights with a tacky gold T on his chest. The blue line on the chart clearly shows what is expected to happen to the price of goods since Donnie won. Up, up, and Away. Would you like to fly in Donnie's big beautiful tariff balloon?

The CRB is made up of aluminum, cocoa, coffee, copper, corn, cotton, crude oil, gold, heating oil, lean hogs, live cattle, natty gas, nickel, orange juice, RBOB gasoline, silver soybeans, sugar and wheat. About 40% of the CRB is agriculture, 40% energy, 13% base metals and 7% precious metals (PM). 

Keystone posted the CRB chart a month ago telling you it is leading the inflation parade. Everyone is coming up to speed. Inflation is made up of goods inflation and services inflation. After the pandemic, due to the outrageous monetary (Fed) stimulus and fiscal (Congress) stimulus pumped into the economy, inflation goes to the moon. Prices sky rocket. People start going on vacation after the pandemic and they want their toilets cleaned, stained bed sheets turned, new towels, their bags carried, their meals cooked, and their arses patted. Airline activity flies high. Hotels are busy. Events, concerts, resort destinations, etc..., are going like gangbusters.

This activity sends services inflation to the clouds, however, what goes up must come down. Even the wealthy run out of money to spend on discretionary fun. Over the last few months, the services inflation activity has flattened and started to roll over lower. This encourages the Fed that they are on the right path since it will help pull overall inflation down towards the 2% goal but while everyone was fixated on services inflation, no one was watching goods inflation that spent the last couple years choppy sideways.

King Donnie is handing out tariffs like Oprah hands out cars. You get a tariff! And you get a tariff! Look inside the envelope taped under your seat and that is the percentage of your tariff! You get 60%! You get 25%! You get an exemption because I will build a hotel in your country after I leave office! You get the idea. Another day in corrupt, crony America.

Traders have decided that Donnie Trump, the orange-headed Tariff Man, is creating inflation sending goods inflation, as measured by the CRB, from 277 to 313, a big +13% pop, in only 3 months. The CRB is going up almost +5% per month due to the Donnie tariffs and tariff threat chaos.

As price makes the higher high, you can see that all the indicators are in negative divergence except for the MACD line that remains long and strong. A spankdown is on tap, probably for only a week or two, then back up again to satisfy the MACD that still has gas in the tank to take price higher, that will then join the other indicators with neggie d probably in a couple weeks or so to place the top and then begin a multi-week slide lower. The goods inflation should hover for a while (1 to 3 weeks, maybe more).

Thus, if goods are flat for a few weeks, at these higher levels, and if services bumps along flat, even with the small downward bias, inflation is going to remain buoyant perhaps into the St Patty's Day, Easter, and Memorial Day holidays when the last hurrah occurs. Simply watch the chart above to see where the top comes in at on the weekly basis (between now, and, say, the end of the month or early March, then a multi-week slide lower say through back half of March and all of April when the inflation data should subside, but may not show up in the numbers until the May data.

It is plain to see what Donnie is doing with his self-proclaimed tariff war; he is pumping inflation higher when he said he would bring it down. The Biden family grifters leave town and the Trump and Musk family grifters arrive. Carole King turns 83. God Bless Her. She is one of the very few performers that could completely electrify an audience. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Friday Morning, Valentine's Day, at 5:50 AM EST: King Donnie is exposed as a paper tiger with tariffs. The orange head used all capital letters in social media yesterday screaming that it was the big day of reciprocal tariffs and no one would be spared. Surprise, surprise, NOT. It is another day in the Donnie presidential reality television show season two. King Donnie talks a big game but it is all bluster and his big announcement is to perform a study into tariffs with no details. But of course he says stay tuned for the next episode. Donnie wants the television cameras focused on his orange head 24/7. Stocks catapult higher because traders realize Trump's tariff talk is braggadocio with no follow-through. No one should be surprised that lame duck Donnie is an orange-headed bloviating carnival clown. CRB remains steady at the 313 palindrome and the big jump in goods inflation because of Donnie's election should level-off as the tariff lion is more like a tiny little tariff mouse. Oh my. America has to put up with 3 years and 11 months more of this garbage. Give people what they want. Shove it down their throats until they gag on it. Happy Valentine's Day. Rose Garden.

AMZN Amazon Weekly Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended

Poor Amazon. We hardly knew ye. "Taps" is the only appropriate song for AMZN now. The melody fits perfect with repeating the words, "neggie-d" over and over. Keystone has been watching AMZN the last few weeks waiting for the negative divergence to form to call the top. The end is nigh.

With the matching price high last week, a mini-Tweezer Top, the chart indicators can be assessed for neggie d. As usual, the MACD line was the last kitten to herd and as seen above, it is finally out of gas like the other indicators (sloping down while price moves higher; negative divergence; the indicators are negatively diverging away from the rising price). You have to wait until all the indicators go neggie d to call the top and now you can call the top in Scamazon on the weekly basis.

You can see that the MACD was long and strong up through the prior week so it was wine and roses through the end of January. Traders and investors remain bulled-up this past week but the chart clearly shows that the joy in price required all the remaining juice out of the MACD so it is time for the neggie d spankdown. The indicators do not have anymore strength to take price higher.

A multi-week down move is expected going forward for AMZN. If you bot AMZN stock last week, caught up in the current hype and bullish euphoria, you will get your face ripped off over the next couple-three weeks. Every top needs a bag-holdin' sucka. The RSI and stochastics are overbot agreeable to a pullback.

The blue circles show distribution taking place with the smart money sloughing off shares to the dumb money even during the low volume weeks as the new year started. Bezos is standing on the street corner selling his Scamazon shares to anyone willing to buy; he is hoping to get out before the bottom falls out.

The red rising wedge pattern is bearish and price is about to fall through the lower rail. The upper band was violated so a move back to the middle band at 211 and lower band at 177 are on the table. Price is extended above the moving average ribbon, with AMZN price above the 20 above the 50 above the 200, requiring a mean reversion lower.

The Aroon is showing the comical behavior that is appearing in other high-flying out-of-control stocks. The green line shows that 100% of the Amazon bulls believe price will go up forever. No surprise, right. They be talkin' their book. The Aroon red line shows that 100% of the Amazon bears also believe that the stock price will go up forever. That is funny. Every single person on the SS Amazon-Titanic is on one side of the ship; the side that does not have life boats. All you can do is sing "Shenandoah" and wish good luck to all those poor dumb b*stards partying on one side (long) of the Scamazon boat.

Keystone is not holding AMZN now long or short but obviously the play forward is short. A multi-week spankdown is on tap for AMZN. As Lawrence said, it is time to say good-bye to sweet Amazon, adios, au revoir, auf wiedersehen. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Wednesday, 2/12/25, at 6:55 AM EST: AMZN is 232.12 in the pre-market. Yesterday's close is 232.76. The 20-dy MA S/R is 232.81. It is time for AMZN to bounce, or die. The 50-day MA support is 226.59 and rising. Appaloosa's David Tepper, that a lot of people follow on Wall Street, like the old E F Hutton commercial, cut his exposure to META and AMZN in favor of Chinese tech stocks. Hightower's Stephanie Link, a CNBC commentator, remains bullish on Scamazon. She is putting more money into AMZN. King Bezos is tip-toeing out the back door after ditching billions in AMZN stock to end last year.

Note Added Friday Morning, 2/14/25, Valentine's Day, at 6:11 AM EST: AMZN is at 230.37. The 20-day MA fails and price slips lower to test the 50-day MA at 227.51 support, and bounces back to 230-ish. The 50 is Scamazon pausing at the top of the high-dive, if it fails (227), it is the diver lunging off the platform and falling like a rock to depths unknown.

Note Added Tuesday Evening, 2/18/25: AMZN 226.65. Price drops to 223.72 today but recovers. The 50-day is 228.13. Price has failed and expected to drop. The 100-day is at 211.70. The 20-wk MA is 215.43. With the gap fills, price support and moving average support levels, a drop to the 207-217 should be on the table. Weekly chart has started its descent so that will go on for a few weeks. Daily chart still weak and bleak but starting to bottom so probably will bounce this week, then after a few days (a week or so), price will roll back over to the downside to continue the weekly downtrend that is underway.

XLC Communications Services ETF Weekly Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended; AI Orgy Petering Out

Most sectors have already come off their tops but not XLC. Communication Services are off to the races for the last couple years riding the AI orgy to glory. Well, all good things come to an end. The neggie d (red lines) says XLC is about to have a Led Zeppelin Communication Breakdown.

XLC holds META, GOOGL, GOOG, NFLX, T, TMUS, TTWO, DIS, VZ, CHTR, etc...., it is an artificial intelligence parade. The happy AI group march forward for 2 years with people clapping and applauding, throwing money at them, but now the parade route is about to change. XLC and its merry holdings will now march through the seedy part of town, past the drug addicts, and behind the horses and elephants that are making brown deposits on the asphalt every few feet.

There are nothing but negatives on that chart. Price makes the higher high but the red lines highlight the negative divergence across all indicators; she should stall, run out of gas, and begin collapsing at any time on the weekly basis. The RSI and stochastics are overbot agreeable to a pullback. Let us be generous and call it a rising wedge pattern, that is bearish, although there should be more price touches to the trend lines to make the wedge more legit.

Price has violated the upper standard deviation band so a trip to the middle band at 96 and rising, and the lower band at 88 and rising, are on the table. Price is extended above the moving average ribbon (price above the 20 above the 50 above the 100 above the 200) so a mean reversion lower is needed.

The Aroon green and red lines show that both XLC bulls and bears believe that price will go up forever. Of course, it will not. The Aroon signals the uber bullishness and rampant complacency. Joe Sixpack is taking an entire paycheck and buying NVDA because the guy on television said to buy it and forget about it. Comically, his buddy, Timmy Trader, told him to be diversified and invest one-half in NVDA and the other half in PLTR.

The blue circle shows a big buying volume week 2 weeks ago but it ws not as robust as the buying volumes last year. If XLC wanted to rock 'n roll higher all night long, the volume should be higher. As the analysts pimp the AI story on television and the internet, they are selling their shares to Edna Bagholder and Carmelita Sucka. The chart forecasts bad things ahead on the weekly basis; a multi-week pullback is set to begin. Do not rule out a move to 104-105 to satisfy the top band but she should peak-out in the days ahead and begin a selloff.

Let us see, taking a look at the daily chart to see where the top may be at, wow, that is in neggie d as well. The Thursday trading session is underway and XLC is at 102.36 perhaps already receiving the neggie d spankdown on the daily and weekly bases. She should be cooked here and interestingly, the upper shadows for the last two price candlesticks are a Tweezer Top, if they hold. They should have longer shadows but that is close enough for government work.

Keystone is not holding XLC long or short right now but obviously short is the play going forward. That means many, or most, maybe all, of the tickers that XLC holds, will head south as well. A crowd favorite. Headin' down south, to the land of the pine,....  This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Friday Evening, 2/7/25, at 6:12 PM EST: XLC finishes the week at 102.74 with universal neggie d on daily and weekly charts. Obviously, XLC is a ticker you do not want to be long. Next week will likely be the start of the multi-week communication Breakdown.

Note Added Friday Morning, 2/14/25, Valentine's Day, at 6:18 AM EST: XLC receives a pop higher to 104.67 after King Donnie does not deliver the tariff punch he promised. The weekly chart will likely take a couple extra weeks to top out due to the extra hype. Simply make sure the neggie d remains in place and you will know the top is in.

Note Added Tuesday Evening, 2/18/25: XLC is at 104.82 to begin the holiday-shortened week a matching high and the weekly chart shows neggie d across all all indicators. She's cooked on the weekly basis. XLC should drop for a few weeks from here. Commentator Josh Brown on CNBC is bullish on XLC but he must be looking at the wrong charts.

SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross

The SPX 60-minute chart with 200 EMA cross is a very useful VST (very short-term) stock market signal. The year thus far is a bunch of choppy whipsaw slop but the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 6000 is the bull/bear line in the sand.

Bulls win big if the SPX remains above 6K; stocks will rally higher. Bears win big if the SPX slips below 6K; stocks will collapse. The SPX begins at 6038 and look at that, S&P futures are down -38. It appears the bulls and bears both know what the game is today. Two enter the cage match today but only one will exit. SPX 6000 is the judge and jury. Reba steams-up the courtroom. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday, 2/6/25, at 2:57 AM EST: The SPX rallies to 6061 yesterday as the VIX drops to 15.77. The dance continues.

Note Added Friday Evening, 2/7/25, at 6:17 PM EST: The SPX finishes the week at 6026 down on the week. The neggie d on the weekly chart identified the top 3 weeks ago, on the weekly basis, and price drifts lower to 5924 testing the 20-wk MA support at 5928. Price then recovered one hundo points off the bottom so the support held. Write 5924-5928 on a sticky note and put it on your forehead. It will likely be important next week. Markets are closed for President's Day on Monday, 2/17/25, and stocks are usually happy the 2 days before a 3-day weekend (Thursday and Friday) so if the bears want to raise a little Hell, like the Ozark boys, they need to be ready to play Monday through hump day. Valentine's Day is Friday so thoughts will turn to love, and the reason for living, on Friday. The 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute chart is 6010 only 16 points below the closing price. The 20-day MA is 6009 and the 50-day MA is 6001. The 6009-6010 is where the wheels begin falling off the stock market, then 6000-6001 will be lost, then 5924-5928 is where blood and carnage begins. The 100-day MA at 5906 and rising would be the last hope for the bulls before they fall into the bottomless pit. VIX is at 16.54 in the bull camp with the line in the sand at 16.87 only 33 cents away. This is fun to watch. Greed always takes its pound of flesh. Plan accordingly so you can take care of your Country Girl. Black Monday?

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Long-Term Multi-Month and Multi-Year Stock Market Top At Hand

It is time for some homework. You are assigned to watch that purple circle on the chart to see if the long-term top for the US stock market is occurring now, in real-time, or, will occur a month or so from now (March). Say what? Down? Everybody, and his brother, on Wall Street says stocks are bang, going to the moon, Alice, this year with 7K and higher popular targets for the SPX. You will have to decide who is Smokin' something.

This is bigtime stuff. If you are under 40 years old and a novice trader, you should get yourself out of the stock market before you get hurt. Keystone called the top to begin 2022; you can scroll back to study those charts. The red lines show the negative divergence in play across all indicators so calling the top on the monthly basis was easy. At the time, the MACD line was playing games, as it typically does since it is usually the last indicator to go neggie d, and only committed to the downside by a hair. Ditto the money flow.

The expectation would be that price has no reason to come back up again on the monthly basis and the S&P 500 was a sick pup for all of 2022. However, the money was flowing like water on Wall Street and Main Street. The Federal Reserve prints money like madmen to protect America's wealthy class and lowers rates, Congress is throwing money to Americans during the COVID-19 pandemic, then the arrogant ignorance, er, artificial intelligence (AI) orgy kicks into gear, and do not forget the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election with King Donnie promising a chicken in every pot. Add it all together and you have an out of control upside stock market so obscene it would make Caligula blush.

You are witnessing the piggish end to the crony capitalism system that is now spitting-up blood. It is a shame that capitalism does not exist but the power of human greed knows no bounds.

Anyhoo, the SPX in 2025 prints a matching price high for four consecutive months. Since price is at a matching or higher high, the chart indicators can be reviewed for neggie d.

All the indicators are in negative divergence calling for a top in the stock market on a monthly basis, except for the stubborn MACD line that remains long and strong, by a hair. It takes a magnifying glass but the MACD, already in nosebleed territory, sneaks up a tiny nano-length. That is your homework; the purple circle. Keystone likes purple crayons because they taste like grapes.

The entire balance of the US stock market depends on that purple circle. Even if the MACD remains long and strong, it only delays the top by a month or two for a jog move to occur (down-up) to then position the MACD with neggie d (downward-sloping). So the end is nigh. The MACD is also outrageously high and the only direction to go is down going forward.

The current task is figuring out where the exact top is at. Scroll back to the SPX weekly chart where Keystone explained that top and it is rolling over in the weekly time frame currently. Thus, she either falls down the rabbit hole now and heads lower for many months even a couple years or more, or, she wants to hang-on for a few more weeks before topping-out and then falling down the rabbit hole for many months even a couple years or more.

The purple circle tells you which one will occur. It is February, don't forget to pronounce the r when you say it, so the new monthly candlestick is only 2 days old. There is lots of trading remaining this month. If the SPX collapses from here, as the uber bullish sentiment and rampant complacency suggest, watch the MACD line because it is evolving with price. If the SPX sells off, the MACD line is going to drop on the end and it will be neggie d this month. Hence, the top is now and a multi-month and multi-year downturn is starting in real-time.

If at the end of this month, 2/28/25 is a Friday, the MACD line is still sloping a hair higher like now, stocks will drop for a month, but then regain their footing and come up for another higher high in price in March. At that price high, the MACD will likely be neggie d, joining all the other indicators, so March would be the multi-month and multi-year top instead of right now in real-time.

So now you know what to watch to call the long-term top after you pick yourself up from the carpet trying to grasp the thought that the money you see in your brokerage account today, will only be half that amount in a year or two. Plan accordingly.

Keystone calls May 2015 the last legitimate top in the US stock market. Everything above 2015 is fluff and phony-baloney garbage and trash. It is a representation of the crony capitalism bloat that is unmanageable and unfixable. We all are simply going to watch it implode going forward.

The RSI, stochastics and money flow are overbot agreeable to a pullback. Price will correct to the 200-month MA at some point forward so do not be surprised in a year or two to see the SPX down in the 2,000-3,500 range. That will get everyone's attention. That is where the SPX should have stayed for the last few years if the country was not hopelessly corrupt, addicted to easy money, and drowning in the unforgiving waters of rigged crony capitalism.

The Aroon green line shows that nearly every stock market bull believes that the stock market will go up forever. Comically, the Aroon red line indicates that every single stock market bear also thinks that the stock market will go up forever. Pause for laughter. This uber bullish behavior is occurring with bitcoin, also. Even funnier, every single bear believes stocks will go up forever but only 96% of the bulls think stocks will go up forever. That is priceless and proves how every single trader is on the bull side of the boat believing that stocks will go up forever so it is time to party like its 1999.

Price violated the upper band so a trip back to the middle band at 5226 and rising sharply, and the lower band at 4047 and rising sharply, are on the table going forward. All of you folks long the market have to make big decisions now and do it while you can. Daylight's Fading. It will be fun watching raw human emotion play out over the coming months. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

VIX Volatility Daily Chart

Volatility dictated the ebbs and flows in Friday trading. The Keybot the Quant algo is long but champing at the bit to go short and identifies VIX 16.85 as the key metric currently impacting stock market prices.

If VIX pops above 16.85, stocks will sell off. If VIX sustains above 16.85, it will be headed for 20 and higher as stocks collapse.

If VIX remains below 16.85, the stock market party will continue for a day or few. Party Town. On Friday as the VIX popped above 16.85, stocks were dropping like rocks. The bulls fought back and in the final minutes, the Fed's jackboot was held on the neck of Uncle Vix making sure the stock market ended happy before the weekend.

King Donnie's tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China will impact stocks on Monday. Canada retaliates but no one is afraid of baby Trudeau, the wannabe tyrant that likes to dress up in blackface on weekends. Mexico is trying to play it cool. The communists are quiet since the Chinese New Year's holiday continues. It is the Year of the Snake for the lying, slithering communists (the 90 million CCP dirtbags; not the 1.4 billion Chinese folks that must live under CCP rule). Prima donna Donnie loves the drama because that gives him an excuse to show his orange head on camera every 10 minutes.

Today is Groundhog Day here in scenic southwestern Pennsylvania; the Laurel Highlands. Punxsutawney Phil, the original and only true animal weather prognosticator, will tell everyone if winter continues for another 6 weeks (he sees his shadow), or, spring is around the corner (he does not see his shadow). There will be plenty of live feeds available on the internet as the time draws near. Phill will come out of his stump home and make his judgement on the weather at about 7 AM EST as the sun rises in these parts. Of course, most people, the non-skiers and non-skaters that sit inside instead of enjoying winter sports, want an early spring and warmer weather, so they are hoping that Punxsy Phil will not see his shadow.

Punxsy Vix will ditch the stock market if he sees 16.85 and higher but the fun times continue in the stock market if he sees 16.85 and lower. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 5:14 PM EST: Punxsutawney Phil disappointed many people today because his shadow he did see, so 6 more weeks of winter it will be! Skiers, skaters, hockey players and snow-tubers rejoice with glee. Next up is Punxsy Vix. What will he see beginning at 3 AM EST?

Note Added 6:04 PM EST: S&P futures collapse out of the gate this Sunday evening on the East Coast puking -115 points. The Dow futures are coughing up nearly -500 points. The Nazzy 100 futures plummet over -600 points. Russell 2000 small caps are down -3.5%. WTIC oil is up +3% to 75-ish. Gold up a few bucks at 2800. USD 108.50. Bitcoin drops to 97.2K. Donnie Trump's tariffs ignite a trade war. Mexico, Canada and China announce or plan retaliation against the US.

Note Added Monday Morning, 2/3/25, at 6:01 AM EST: VIX pops above 20 overnight now at 19.78. The bears are coming to play. S&P futures are down -90 points. USD 109.52. Bitcoin has a 95K handle. 

Note Added Thursday, 2/6/25, at 2:59 AM EST: The SPX rallies to 6061 yesterday as the VIX drops to 15.77. The tariffs are more bark than bite. Traders await the US Monthly Jobs Report tomorrow morning.

Note Added Friday Evening, 2/7/25, at 6:30 PM EST: The SPX finishes the week at 6026 down on the week. The neggie d on the weekly chart identified the top 3 weeks ago, on the weekly basis, and price drifts lower to 5924 testing the 20-wk MA support at 5928. Price then recovered one hundo points off the bottom so the support held. Write 5924-5928 on a sticky note and put it on your forehead. It will likely be important next week. Markets are closed for President's Day on Monday, 2/17/25, and stocks are usually happy the 2 days before a 3-day weekend (Thursday and Friday) so if the bears want to raise a little Hell, like the Ozark boys, they need to be ready to play Monday through hump day. Valentine's Day is Friday so thoughts will turn to love, and the reason for living, on Friday. The 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute chart is 6010 only 16 points below the closing price. The 20-day MA is 6009 and the 50-day MA is 6001. The 6009-6010 is where the wheels begin falling off the stock market, then 6000-6001 will be lost, then 5924-5928 is where blood and carnage begins. The 100-day MA at 5906 and rising would be the last hope for the bulls before they fall into the bottomless pit. VIX is at 16.54 in the bull camp with the line in the sand at 16.87 only 33 cents away. This is fun to watch. Greed always takes its pound of flesh. Plan accordingly so you can take care of your Country Girl. Black Monday?

CPC Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart; Rampant Euphoric Bullishness, Fearlessness and Hubris Signals Significant Stock Market Top

Take advantage of the melt-up to ditch any remaining longs. The hubris in the stock market and rampant fearlessness must be disciplined. What do you think? A Black Monday? Black Tuesday? The SPX all-time record high is 6128 and price today tags the 6116 palindrome forming a double-top. Fun times. Eve of Destruction.

If you do not get out of the stock market, you deserve everything that is about to happen to you. Do not wear your favorite shirt, because you are about to lose it. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Friday Afternoon, 1/31/25, at 3:42 PM EST: Did you get out? Let the blood and carnage begin on Wall and Broad. The SPX peaks at the HOD at 6121 almost up to the all-time high at 6128, and then falls on its sword down to 6031 a 90-point intraday collapse. Look at the rats scurry. There is no place to hide now. It is time to receive your head on a platter. Stocks should drop a long way from here. Monday will depend on the Donnie tariffs against Mexico, Canada and communist China. Pachelbel's Canon in D is fantastic as the knives are out and the harvesting begins. It is time to pay for your greed.

Note Added Sunday Evening, 2/2/25, at 6:05 PM EST: S&P futures collapse out of the gate this Sunday evening on the East Coast puking -115 points. The Dow futures are coughing up nearly -500 points. The Nazzy 100 futures plummet over -600 points. Russell 2000 small caps are down -3.5%. WTIC oil is up +3% to 75-ish. Gold up a few bucks at 2800. USD 108.50. Bitcoin drops to 97.2K. Donnie Trump's tariffs ignite a trade war. Mexico, Canada and China announce or plan retaliation against the US.

Note Added Monday Morning, 2/3/25, at 6:03 AM EST: VIX pops above 20 overnight now at 19.78. The bears are coming to play. S&P futures are down -90 points. USD 109.52. Bitcoin has a 95K handle. 

Note Added Friday Evening, 2/7/25, at 6:33 PM EST: The SPX finishes the week at 6026 down on the week. The neggie d on the weekly chart identified the top 3 weeks ago, on the weekly basis, and price drifts lower to 5924 testing the 20-wk MA support at 5928. Price then recovered one hundo points off the bottom so the support held. Write 5924-5928 on a sticky note and put it on your forehead. It will likely be important next week. Markets are closed for President's Day on Monday, 2/17/25, and stocks are usually happy the 2 days before a 3-day weekend (Thursday and Friday) so if the bears want to raise a little Hell, like the Ozark boys, they need to be ready to play Monday through hump day. Valentine's Day is Friday so thoughts will turn to love, and the reason for living, on Friday. The 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute chart is 6010 only 16 points below the closing price. The 20-day MA is 6009 and the 50-day MA is 6001. The 6009-6010 is where the wheels begin falling off the stock market, then 6000-6001 will be lost, then 5924-5928 is where blood and carnage begins. The 100-day MA at 5906 and rising would be the last hope for the bulls before they fall into the bottomless pit. VIX is at 16.54 in the bull camp with the line in the sand at 16.87 only 33 cents away. This is fun to watch. Greed always takes its pound of flesh. Plan accordingly so you can take care of your Country Girl. Black Monday?