SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Double-Top; Overbot; Negative Divergence Developing; Mean Reversion Needed; Uber Complacency and Fearlessness; Historic Long-Term Stock Market Top Printing in Real-Time Going Forward; SPX Prints New All-Time High at 6188 Locking-In Negative Divergence

It has been a month since complacency is off the charts along with with uber bullishness and unbridled optimism and the party continues not yet resolved. Maybe there is something to that thinking positive stuff? Nope, if looking at the long-term stock market chart above. What does the chart above represent? It shows that if you are a young person caught up in the stock market hype, you are going to lose one-half of your capital over the coming months and couple years.

Use common sense. America is an aging population like Japan and China and many other nations. All that money kept in the stock market by the upper middle class (there is no middle class anymore) is gong to slowly dwindle. Old folks will pull money out of stocks in the years forward to pay medical bills, or help their kids financially, and young people working as baristas at Starbucks do not have the funds to take their place. They should call that joint Tenbucks because every time you walk in there you spend $10 bucks or more.

Anyhoo, back to the important chart above, the SPX monthly chart, the S&P 500, the United States stock market. This is the scene of the crony capitalism crime over the last decades. The SPX is teasing the all-time record high and record closing high at 6147.43 and 6144.15, respectively, on 2/19/25. About 50 more points will create new all-time record highs an action that would be so obscene it would make Caligula blush. We will know this week if the bulls got the juice. 

Nevertheless, it looks like it will be a moot point due to the neggie d. Remember last Fall as new highs were printing, the green line for the MACD still had fuel in the tank wanting another higher high that occurs as the this year begins. This creates the bigtime 2/19/25 top and Keystone explained that the call was tricky on the long-term basis due to the flattish MACD when it topped out with price (light blue circle). It was the difference between the all-time high occurring in February and likely not seen again for many years forward, if ever, or price coming up one more time in May, June or July, since the tiny top move in the MACD still contained some fumes to bring price back up, and that is where we are at now. The major long-term top is occurring; the idea now is to simply pinpoint the exact top.

Whether the SPX prints the all-time record highs or not is a moot point because the negative divergence at play is as serious as a heart attack. Technically, to be correct, there is no neggie d yet because price has to make the matching or higher high first, then the indicators can be assessed for negative divergence (red lines). Price remains 50 points short of the matching highs so the downward slopes for all the chart indicators cannot lock in neggie d unless price makes the matching or higher high. This case is on the special side, however, since the SPX just performed a 100% Fibonacci retracement for the February to April swoon. What is 50 points among friends? If bearish, let price print new all-time highs and seal its fate long-term with neggie d. It would be the final nail in the coffin.

You can see that price could print the matching or higher highs tomorrow and those chart indicators are going to be neggie d. It is exciting. This double-top, or M-top pattern, is a major historic top for the US stock market and once she begins dropping, we will not see these numbers for a very long time. Can she pop some more? Sure, especially with the King Donnie and Fed hype these days but it appears that the fate of the stock market is sealed. The bears should hope for the record highs since that locks in the neggie d and the top as long as a big thrust higher is not occurring due to some hyped news event. Even so, it would delay the long-term top by only a few weeks.

When she starts dropping, watch the 10-mth MA at 5856 since that is an early warning signal of major trouble ahead. Watch the 12 MA at 5811 since that represents the start of a cyclical bear market and nothing but bad stuff ahead after that. So bulls need 50 points of upside and bears need 200 points of downside. The SPX price is above the moving average ribbon above the 10 that is above the 12 above the 20 above the 50 above the 200, so a mean reversion lower is desperately needed. Some month forward, price will likely overcorrect on the 200-week MA to the downside (sub 2700). Some of you that stay in the market no matter what because you believe that silliness of about staying in the stock market for the long-term, will have your faces ripped off as the next couple years play out.

The ADX shows that the strong trends higher were in 2014 and then 2018. Despite the stock market catapulting higher since 2019, the whole pile of sh*t rally is NOT considered a strong trend higher (which means it will eventually fade).

The Aroon is another tool that proves the uber complacency in the stock market the perfect recipe for an epic top. 84%, an overbot number, so just say nearly all the bulls continue to believe the stock market will go up forever. No surprise there. But also, comically, 100% of the bears believe that the stock market will go up forever. Everyone expects a stock market that will never go down again as the long-term monthly chart is about to print negative divergence locking in a multi-month and likely multi-year bear market. It's beautiful, as they say in Zoolander.

Keystone calls the May 2015 the last legitimate top in the US stock market so perhaps that will be revisited over the next couple years (2000-2200). The explanation above is how you call stock market tops so watch price and the negative divergence develop and you will be able to call the long-term top. If you are young person wide-eyed and bushy-tailed getting into the stock market thinking that you are the next Jesse Livermore, you ain't. You are going to lose your shirt so stay away for a couple years and watch how things play out.

If you are a techie, proudly wearing your fleece sweater vest with the company logo displayed, you want the boss to know you are a kiss-*ss, and your Apple wristwatch that you never use, and have money burning a hole in your pocket, look elsewhere for investing instead of the stock market.

As previously mentioned, the stock market has been complacent and fearless the last month and the SPX daily chart was topped-out with neggie d. The downward activity in price occurs but very muted since King Donnie and Pope Powell provide daily doses of stock market joy to always reward America's wealthy while spitting on everyone else. It's called crony capitalism filth. Today, Powell flapped his dovish wings creating a stock market orgy on the trading floor. The gap-up, however, occurs with the daily chart remaining in neggie d. The SPX weekly chart was not set up with neggie d a month ago so that was a loose end but with price nearly at the prior highs, the weekly chart will also go neggie d. The stars are all coming together.

It starts with an earthquake, birds and snakes, and airplanes. Is it like REM said? It's the End of the World. I feel fine. Plan accordingly. It's fun. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday, 6/29/25: The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 6187.68 and new all-time closing high at 6173.07. In 5 days, the SPX shot higher from a low at 5943 to 6188, a +4.1% gain, on King Donnie and Pope Powell happy talk. Three of the days are gap-ups as the bulls trip over each other buying any stock with a heartbeat. It feels like the dotcom bubble. If you voice any concern, people will shout you down proclaiming that the new highs prove that stocks will go up forever. It is comical. The complacency and fearlessness verifies the topping behavior in the charts. Let's take a look at the timeframes to see if they show the path forward. The SPX 2-hour chart is neggie d with the MACD line flatter than a newlywed's souffle. So the chart is topped-out now or needs a jog move, down-up, for the MACD to go neggie d, so the top will be in 2 to 4 trading hours; Monday morning. The SPX daily chart is neggie d and overbot except for the RSI that has now squeezed out a higher high. If the SPX starts out higher tomorrow morning, the RSI could go neggie d right away so the top would be in for the daily time frame but if not Monday, a jog move, down-up, would set it up to top-out on Wednesday. On the SPX weekly, the chart is in negative divergence wanting price to roll over now and begin a multi-week slide lower. On the SPX monthly chart above, the sight is historic. You are witnessing an epic top in the making, folks. The bears should be happy that price made the new all-time highs since that locks-in the neggie d and the negative fate for the stock market going forward for many months. Keep an eye on the RSI that is trying to sneak higher for a higher high than February but it is unlikely, and even if it occurs, it would likely only delay the long-term top by a month or two (July/August). July begins on Tuesday so a new candlestick will start for the chart above and the June candle will be cast in concrete. Combining the timeframes to paint a picture of the market, like playing 3-dimensional chess but the timeframes are the dimensions, indicates that the top is in for stocks now or any day forward and it will begin a long slog downward likely through the end of the year into 2026. The July 4th holiday is Friday so the Jobs Report is out on Thursday. New money typically comes into the market the first few days of July for the new month, quarter and second half of 2025, and stocks are typically bullish the two days in front of a 3-day weekend, but do not count on this since the markets are extremely unstable and erratic right now. The CPC and other put/call ratios collapse lower again verifying the extreme euphoric bullishness and complacency. The bulls need taught a lesson. Keystone's 80/20 rule says 8's lead to 2's on the way up and 2's to 8's on the way down. When the SPX crossed 5800, it opened the door to 6200. The 6180 opens the door to 6220. If the SPX needs a bit more buoyancy to begin the week for the 2-hour and daily charts to lock-in the neggie d, a further move to the 6200-6230 area would not be a surprise where she would top-out. The orange big beautiful bill bull sh*t may pass Congress (House and Senate) this week so that may provide a catalyst to boost the seasonal factors and make everyone happy into the holiday and provide 6200+. Conversely, negativity around the big bill this week, especially a failed vote, will push the stock market over the cliff and likely begin the long downward slide into next year (and the top for the year may be in place now). Everyone will be a patriotic mood this week. Whitney and the Star Spangled Banner. Too bad drugs destroyed such a beautiful lady. That is what happens to a lot of creative people since their brains are wired differently.

BPGDM Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index and GDX Gold Miners Weekly Charts

Everything that is associated with gold shines brightly these days. The gold miners are in ecstasy with money being thrown at them. One of the astute followers, Sunil, pointed Keystone to the 96 on the BPGDM. Yes, that will get your attention.

There are not many charts worth posting these days since King Donnie bloviates each day creating a choppy pile of slop trading environment. The sawtooth jaggedness you see in charts where equities change direction are due to the Donnie or Fed Chairman Powell comments. Anyhoo, the gold miners are setting up very negatively. How can that be? Blasphemy! Gold bugs are now banging on Keystone's door demanding that he retrack such a blasphemous call. How dare he diss the coveted gold miners.

Well, the charts are the charts. Do not kill the messenger. The BPGDM above 96 indicates that everybody and his bro are buying gold miners these days. There are no gold miner bears. When everyone is partying on one side of the boat, cheering as they display their heavy gold bars and nuggets, you know what is going to happen.

The green and red circles show the tops and bottoms in the gold miners over the last few years. The big breakout higher was a year ago as traders worried about the presidential election approaching with King Donnie, the orange-headed bloviating carnival clown, versus cackling Kamala the communist, so Americans picked what they perceive as the least bad choice. Gold takes another big move higher this year as the Trump Trade and Tariff War created global angst and uncertainty.

For the GDX weekly chart, the red rising wedge pattern is bearish. Price makes a higher high so the chart indicators can be assessed for negative divergence. All are neggie d (red lines) except for the MACD line that remains long and strong. If you bring up the GDX daily chart, it is in full neggie d now and wants a spankdown to begin now in the daily time frame. The weekly chart likely wants to jog once more (down-up) so the MACD can go neggie d and join the other indicators and the top can be called on the weekly basis.

Marrying the daily and weekly charts, you could see an initial pullback in GDM now, for a few days, but the bigtime bullishness will cause dip-buyers to buy, and price will likely come up for another matching high in a week or so, and then the MACD on the weekly should go neggie d sealing in the fate of the gold miners.

Price has violated the upper band so the middle band at 46 and rising is on the table and also the lower band at 37 and rising. The ADX shows that despite the euphoric buying in gold miners last year, the rally barely resulted in a strong trend higher (pink box) and now, with price well above those levels, the ADX is not in a strong trend higher.

The Aroon is comical like many charts these days. 100% of the gold miner bulls believe that gold miners will go up forever. That is not surprising. If you are a gold bug, you always believe in the power of gold as a store of money value. The Aroon also shows that nearly every gold miner bear is also bullish and believes that gold miners will go up forever. What do you think? Is another drop on tap like the Fall swoon? Yes.

Keystone is not long or short any gold miners or gold derivatives these days. Obviously, the play forward would be shorting the gold miners since a multi-week downward slide should begin going forward. Do not bank to much on the MACD on the weekly chart if you are bullish GDM since it is already at an elevated level and the gold miners can begin the down move at any time in the days and couple weeks ahead. If long the gold miners, it is likely prudent to ditch one half the position right away, and then see how things go with the Fed meeting, and then scale-out of the remainder of the longs in the days following the Fed decision. Simply watch the MACD line on the weekly chart and you can call the top in GDM.

Keystone overturns his mahogany desk for protection from the onslaught of gold bugs attacking his analysis and throwing pyrite at him. Numbers are numbers and charts are charts. Plan accordingly if you are long the gold miners. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Happy 250th to the Army but the parade was boring. It was a big grift for King Trump with Fox News and Newsmax (republican-run media) the only cable outlets covering the parade. The commercials were pushing Trump watches and bibles and other garbage trinkets. It is hilarious; the Grifter-in-Chief. Trump receives his 21-gun salute for his birthday party; that is what the narcissist demanded. If you want to show-off military hardware, it should be moving at more than 5 MPH (8 KPH) but could not since it would damage the roads. It looked like the crowd consisted of the friends and family of the people in the parade. It is Father's Day weekend with people doing lots of other activities. Hundreds of thousands of Americans showed-up at the No-Kings protests around the country. The US Open golf tournament is ongoing in Pittsburgh (Oakmont) consuming southwestern Pennsylvania so few made the trip to Washington, DC. The news on shootings and the Israel-Iran War also dominate news coverage placing the parade on the back burner. Another tip for the parade folks. Please practice marching ahead of time so all of you can stay in sync. It was pathetic seeing some of the groups walking in formation and out of step. The parade is supposed to show precision. Left-ho, left-ho, left, right, left, is the cadence, jackasses. The ho is your right foot. It is easy. Go out in your yard and walk and as you step say, left-ho, left-ho, left, right, left, and stay in step and in sync. If you are ever tired trying to walk up a big hill, use the cadence to push yourself and you will soon reach the peak. A parade showing soldiers just walking along and marching out of sync looks like a bunch of folks that would rather be anywhere else except there. Big spender Baby Trump got his little military parade so he is happy. $50 million dollars worth of taxpayer money. King Cry-Baby.

Note Added Tuesday, 6/24/25, at 8:09 PM EST: GDX drops to 50.70 today. It topped out at 54.70 on Friday the 13th so Keystone calls the exact top. What else is new?.

Note Added Sunday, 6/29/25: GDX is at 50.73 dropping to 50.32 and receiving support from the 50-day MA at 50.41. If the 50 fails, GDX will probably start looking for a bottom at 45-48.

Note Added Tuesday, 7/8/25: GDX is 50.79 with the 50-day MA support at 50.62. It is time to bounce or die. It bounced 7 days ago, will it again?

CRB and GTX Commodity Indexes Daily Charts Explain Trumpflation

King Donnie brags about the US economy and in the next sentence bloviates that he wants a full percentage cut in rates; it is economics idiocy. He is a business idiot as much of the country consider him a business genius. Pause for laughter. Donnie's dad gave him a half billion dollars ($460 million) 40 years ago and he was lucky to have 1 to 3 billion as he made his first election bid when he lied saying he was worth over 10 billion. That is a business idiot. He is lucky he did not lose it all. If someone gave you a half a billion dollars, how much do you think you would have 40 years later?

His dad even opened the doors to Manhattan real estate and also partially bailed Donnie out of the Taj Mahal and casino bankruptcy fiasco when he screwed middle-class workers promising them the world but then throwing them out in the street and chuckling about it. Those are things you never forget. Anyone under 50 years old does not understand Donnie's past; they consider him to be smart in business because of The Apprentice television show. The orange head now has about 4 to 6 billion due to his grift and foray into meme coins and other likely short-lived money gimmicks over the last couple years. The election saved him financially.

King Donnie now claims he has defeated inflation. Boy, is he in for a surprise going forward. Starting at the beginning, Trump is reelected in November 2024, despite the 1/6/21 debacle when he sat in the Oval Office refusing to stop the Capitol Hill riot instead happily cheering Americans as they hurt and maimed one another and the police. Go figure. Anyhoo, Trump bragged that he was the Tariff Man during the campaign. Tariffs are inflationary. If elected, traders knew inflation would rise since the only significant action he could immediate take when entering office was tariffs via the garbage executive order nonsense.

(Executive orders by the president were only meant for declaring holidays and other such small matters but that changed when Emperor Obama was in office ruling by a 'pen and a phone'; King Trump followed Emperor Obama jumping on the executive order bandwagon reversing Obama's decrees; King Biden enters office and reverses Trump's executive order proclamations; now King Donnie is back in office and reversed Biden's executive orders and the next president in 3 years will likely reverse King Donnie's executive orders; this is not what the Founding Fathers wanted; it is a garbage authoritarian way to run the country; everything, including tariffs, should go through the regular Congressional process so it can be debated from all sides like the so-called 'big beautiful bill; not anymore since anyone elected president, demopublican or republocrat, now considers themselves a king and entitled to rule by executive order decrees; isn't it sickening?; it is enough to make you puke.)

Thus, traders front-run the inflation and it shows in the CRB and GTX charts above. Traders anticipate inflation because they know tariffs are coming. The CRB Index is made up of crude oil, natty gas, gasoline, cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, sugar, aluminum, copper, gold, nickel, silver, corn, soybeans, wheat, live cattle and lean hogs. Ditto the GTX holding the same commodities also platinum. These products are needed as raw materials or serve as vital energy providers. Obviously, the jump in oil and gold have a lot to do with the commodities moving higher.

Overall inflation consists of goods inflation, that the charts above represent, and services inflation. The big driver of inflation during bozo Biden's years in office was mainly due to a sharp rise in services inflation. The wealthy class, made filthy rich from the Federal Reserve's obscene multi-decades of money-printing, continue spending money keeping the economy afloat. The split between rich and poor has not been this great since the 1970's when a standard mantra among common folks was, "F&#$ the rich." History repeats. Great music came out of the 1960's and 1970's strife. California Dreamin'. In 2025, the wealthy need people to carry their bags, clean their toilets and dirty sheets, drive them around, and cook their food so services exploded higher after the COVID-19 pandemic subsided.

Not now. Since late last year, services inflation is in a sideways funk with a slightly downwards bias. This means services are neither creating or subtracting from overall inflation currently. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why we are never invited to the fun parties, thus, you must look to goods inflation to get a gauge on where overall inflation is headed.

After the hoopla from the election and the holidays, demand typically slumps a little and goods inflation drops. Oil falls helping send the indexes lower. This gives President Trump the window now to claim credit for lower inflation due to his policies that he proclaims are already having a miraculous impact on the US economy. Of course he does; he is a politician.

The inflation data lags so just as Americans are complaining about inflation from last Fall into the first few months of the year, now the data is showing happy lower inflation due to the drop in goods inflation from February through April. However, the inflation sh*t will likely start hitting the fan for the inflation data going forward that will now be incorporating the rise in goods inflation from April to present. It is not rocket science, and Keystone knows rocket science.

Fed Chairman Powell receives the daily beatings from King Trump that wants the money-printing to start in full force to goose the economy through the mid-term elections. Isn't it nauseating what the country has become? A bunch of grifter politicians only concerned about the upcoming elections and how they can maintain power.

Trump does not care about the debt and potential for a major reset in the US economy; he wants to spend money. This is likely the main reason for the Trump-Musk rift. Musk stupidly believed that Trump was serious when he said he wants to lower the US debt and deficits. Elon learned the lesson that no politician plans on worrying about the debt until they have to and then they will have an emergency meeting that slashes benefits for Americans. They do not care. 60% of Americans did not want taxpayer money spent on the military parade today but Donnie does not care; it is his birthday party. It is easy to spend other people's money; that is what Donnie has done all his life. Powell has been walking a tightrope concerning potential rate hikes and cuts since last Fall. To his credit, he remains on balance.

Powell will likely be correct in holding off on rate cuts since the inflation data will likely start overshooting going forward. Comically, people may start talking about rate hikes again. It will be interesting to see inflation data rise and how the president handles the new emergence of Trumpflation going forward. As inflation bumps higher again, rates will likely bump higher and stocks will probably turn soggy for the coming months. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Happy 250th to the Army. Keystone remembers the Green Beret movie, starring the Duke. Everyone went to the movie theater back then to see it in the late 60's and early 70's a time now forgotten by Americans. The Green Beret Peterson, that was going to be the father for an orphan boy, got killed by a snare trap as the US Army Special Forces unit left the jungle. His foot snared and he was flung upside down and impaled on a camouflaged wall of wooden stakes. When the Green Berets returned from the dangerous mission, the orphan boy could not find Peterson and of course John Wayne's character stepped-in. There was not a dry eye in the theater. Great respect to the folks serving and the vets and the fallen soldiers. Only older people and people in the service now think like this anymore. Hand to hand combat, if stuck in that situation, is brutal. Ballad of the Green Berets.

BTCUSD Bitcoin Weekly Chart; Double-Top; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended

Bitcoin is oscillating sideways for the last month as the weekly chart tops out. Clearly, price makes the new high and all the chart indicators are sloping downwards, negative divergence, so bitcoin is cooked on the weekly basis. She falls for a couple weeks but the bitcoin bulls are tripping over each other to buy the dip. There it is! It pulled back ten bucks; buy, buy buy!!!

Lots of traders are likely losing confidence in the long-term expectations for the stock market. America's demographic is getting older and they will be withdrawing lots of money from the stock market going forward. The young dude working at Starbucks and gal waiting tables at the Olive Garden are not stepping in to buy stocks. Gold and bitcoin have become faves of the investment crowd since they think these investments will be better if things fall apart. In truth, nothing is safe and a couple decades of Fed phony money has distorted price discovery so no one truly knows what anything is worth anymore be it stocks, bonds, real estate, art, anything.

Anyhoo, the red lines show the neggie d that should slap price far lower than the last couple weeks but the worries about stagflation and King Donnie's Trade and Tariff War has investors still wanting to own a little crypto and yellow metal.

Price has violated the upper band so the middle band at 94.1K is on the table. Look at that drop in volume (blue line). Bitcoin has the appearance that it is floating higher on hopes, dreams, wishes, and promises. As the old saying goes, "wish in one hand, sh*t in the other, watch and see, which one fills up faster."

Bitcoin is extended above the moving average ribbon so a mean reversion lower is needed. The chart pattern is a double-top, or M-top; close enough for gov't work. The ADX clearly shows that the joyous rally in bitcoin in late 2023 into 2024 was a strong trend higher but that petered out about Labor Day last year. Then, bitcoin took off higher again and that was labeled a strong trend higher in December but it petered out in March. Is the third time a charm? No, it is not. Bitcoin rallies again to peak a couple weeks ago but note that the ADX is not moving above the 28-30 area. The current move higher in the digital currency is NOT a strong trend higher like the previous two rallies.

The Aroon shows 92% of the bitcoin bulls, let's just say all the bitcoin bulls, remain bullish bitcoin. Thank you, Captain Obvious. The Aroon verifies the euphoric optimism currently at play with bitcoin. Interestingly, over the last month, the bitcoin bulls are coming out of the woodwork and starting to stretch their arms. About 70% of the bitcoin bears are now thinking that bitcoin may become weaker going forward and roll over.

The bitcoin game depends on the bulls. The bulls remain super optimistic about bitcoin and this unbridled enthusiasm supports the digital currency. However, that bitcoin mettle will likely be tested over the next month. As bitcon begins dropping, like a prom dress, will the bulls remain bullish or will they jump ship looking for greener pastures? 

Keystone is short bitcoin for the last couple weeks with the trade really going not much of anywhere. Perhaps that neggie d above will kick-in harder this week. Prior charts and the one above show that the set-up ahead is stocks down, dollar up, gold down, and bitcoin down. Of course, keep an ear open for comments from the Fed or Trump administration that will help, or hurt, crypto. A negative news bite will serve as a catalyst to probably kick the negativity into high gear.

The daily chart is not telling much but price is coming up for the back kiss at the 20-day MA at 106633. The bottom band was violated so a move up to the middle band was on the table and occurs. Price tagged 106409 last week and now sits at 106308. Bounce or die from 106.6K; that is something you can watch. A move through 106.6K will open the door to 111.3K. A failure here will likely kick-in the downside bigtime on the weekly basis.

Fantastic Cat is several songwriters that got together in a band and are getting air play now and a following with Oh Man! The vid spoofing a Pocono Talent Show is funny. So Glad You Made It. They are in Da Burgh in 2 weeks. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 6/14/25: Bitcoin slumps to a 102K handle last Thursday but the bulls buy it up to end the week at a 105K handle now trading a hair under 105K. Bitcoin slips a modest -0.6% last week and should begin its multi-week decline due to the neggie d on the charts. Gold and bitcoin remain the two favorite sons as Trump's Trade and Tariff War, Fed drama, and now the Israel-Iran War create angst. The expectation is for bitcoin to drop for several weeds forward but everyone is likely waiting for the Powell show on Wednesday. Note how price came up last week to challenge the 20-day MA at 106.3K last week and popped up through with force. Bitcoin bulls were throwing confetti and cheering as price popped to the 110.5K high for the week. Alas, bitcoin rolls over and loses the 20-day MA on Wednesday and remains under to end the week. If bitcoin cannot get above 106.3K, it got nothing. If it does, it will likely pop to test 112K and make a bounce or die decision. It is reasonable to expect bitcoin to be sub 100K and perhaps a lot lower by the end of the month.

USD US Dollar and GOLD Weekly Charts; Possie D for the Greenback but Neggie D for Gold

The US dollar and gold have an inverse relationship. It is easy to see this year. Gold rallies out of the gate in 2025 into the April top. The dollar collapses at the start of the year to the April low. The dollar bounces, then drops again. Gold drops, and then bounces again. Textbook.

Keystone posted the gold chart in March pointing out the topping-behavior but the pullback lasted all of a couple days. News changed the gold and dollar story during that late March early April period for the markets. The stagflation talk went into high gear ant that created that long up candle in April for gold. The Fed meeting then fueled the stagflation talk creating ongoing buoyancy for gold also supported by King Donnie's Trade and Tariff War. Nikki Haley was correct when she said chaos follows him (Trump). It is funny.

So gold flattens out and ditto the dollar both looking at each other wondering what to do. Gold is in negative divergence so she will drop and the buck is in positive divergence so she will pop on the weekly basis.

On the dollar chart, the dark blue lines show the ongoing long-term channel for the buck. Buy it at 101 and sell it at 106.5 rinse and repeat, until April. The stagflation talk, Fed drama and daily Donnie reality television show conspire to smack the dollar lower and exalt gold. The dollar loses the lower channel rail at 101, and then comes up for the back kiss to decide if it really wanted to collapse and, yes, it did, then dropping down to the current 99-handle. Textbook back test.

With the backdrop above, everybody and his bro is shorting the dollar and longing gold. The doorman, shoeshine boy, Uber driver, and pastry chef formed an investment club and they are buying gold with both hands with their paychecks while shorting the US dollar with leveraged funds. How do you think that is going to end? The green lines show the positive divergence at play for the dollar. Note that the MACD line is still weak and bleak perhaps wanting another low in the dollar but overall, she is fueled-up on the launch pad ready to take-off higher.

The dollar will bounce as the purple line shows, or, if the MACD wants to play a little game before it goes possie d, the dollar will go up for a few days, then back down next week for a low, then it will be up and away as shown by the light blue line.

The pink box for the ADX for the dollar shows that the trend higher during late 2024 was a strong trend but that petered out in February/March as the dollar collapsed. Note that as the dollar has been sick all year long, the ADX is struggling to move higher and it is at the level, 28-ish, where the down move would be labeled a strong trend lower; it is not a strong trend lower.

The Aroon is comical and reflects the current market mood. Nearly all dollar bears believe the dollar will continue lower and nearly all the dollar bulls also believe the dollar will go lower forever. This behavior reflects the massive dollar shorts at play now.

If you are short the dollar, you are about to have a religious experience. When the dollar rocket begins launching on the weekly basis due to the possie d fuel the shorts are going to panic bigtime. The dollar will likely be a moon shot higher as gold drops. Remember, since the dollar and euro hold about two-thirds of each other's currencies in their baskets, the euro moves inverse to the dollar, and if you bring up the $EURUSD chart that is proven. The euro has the same hitch in the MACD like the dollar above so the end is now or over the next couple weeks. Plan accordingly going forward; dollar up, euro down, gold down.

On the gold chart, the exact opposite technical analysis is at play; remember the two move inverse to each other. Gold has made matching or higher price highs but all the chart indicators are negatively diverged. She is out of gas. There are not even any fumes remaining in the tank. The ADX shows that gold remains in a strong trend higher on the weekly basis but note how it is topping-out and likely to roll over. The ADX is a lagging indicator so the strong trend higher will be lost when it drops below 30.

The Aroon for gold is also comical like the dollar. Nearly all gold bulls believe that gold will continue higher while nearly all the gold bears (96% of them) believe that gold will go up forever. That is funny. The dollar boat is fully loaded to the short side while the gold boat is fully loaded to the bull side and both ships are headed towards one another with an iceberg in the middle. It is fun stuff.

If you are long gold, or short the dollar, you are going to lose your shirts. Keystone is not playing any currencies or gold long or short right now but obviously the play forward is shorting gold and going long the dollar. The only thing that can change the scenario forward is new comments from Fed Chair Powell or from King Donnie.

If you remain long gold and/or short the dollar, you will be standing Alone with your pants pulled down and shirtless going forward. A dirtbag stole a couple of Heart's musical instruments. If you see them, let Anny and Nancy know. Losing one of your beloved instruments you have played for 40 or 50 years is like losing your arm if you are a musician. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 6/14/25: The dollar sinks -1% this week closing at 98.18 with the positive divergence remaining in place on the daily and weekly charts sans the MACD on the weekly chart that still wants price to print matching lows in the week ahead to plant a firm bottom and begin a multi-week rally higher. That second scenario above is playing out for the dollar. The wrench (spanner) in the works is the Fed meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday that can send markets wildly in one direction or the other. The dollar daily chart did not yet show a lower low compared to April until Thursday and Friday. Bingo. Price makes a lower low and all the daily chart indicators are possie d so price needs to bounce and begin a multi-day rally. Boiiiinng. The dollar bounces on Friday. Barring the Fed drama and any noise from Trump's Trade and Tariff War, the dollar should place a firm bottom next week and begin a multi-week recovery. Gold continues higher during the past week as the dollar slumped on the daily basis. Traders and investors are perceiving gold as the only safe play going forward. You know what happens when everyone and his bro are betting on one direction. Interestingly, gold came up for a closing high at 3432 falling short of the record closing high in April at 3434. In addition, the April intraday high was 3500 but gold only got up to 3447 during the past week. With all the super gold hype, price should have at least printed a higher closing high. Be skeptical of gold especially as one analyst is calling for 5K in the short-term. All eyes will be on Powell on Wednesday. Gold has moved choppy flat through the 3200-3500 range since early April (for 2 months). The week ahead will reveal a break-out higher or failure lower. The forecasted bottoming and rise in the dollar says lower for gold but if the Middle East war gets out of hand and other trade and tariff problems surface, or if Powell shakes-up the markets on hump day, gold may prefer the flat profile going forward.

SPX S&P 500 Daily and 2-Hour Charts; Rising Wedges; Overbot; Negative Divergence

The US Monthly Jobs Report rallies the stock market to SPX 6000 but no one was passing out any hats. Keystone's SPX 6K hat already has oil and paint stains on it. What is shocking about the above charts? The charts were already in neggie d before the jobs report and after every single chart indicator remains in neggie d despite the big happy rally. She's a top folks. Oh my, that may have different meanings.

Anyhoo, the 2-hour displays a rising wedge pattern (bearish), overbot stochastics and neggie d across all indicators as price makes a new high. She's cooked.

The daily chart displays rising wedge patterns, overbot stochastics and neggie d across all indicators. She's cooked in both the hour and daily time frames.

All of you are not worried because you are prepared with shorts, right? The only thing that can save the day is happy talk from King Trump or the Fed over the weekend. Otherwise, she is going down and it would be expected immediately. What do you think? A Black Monday?

It is a beautiful set-up for shorts; fantastico. The knives will be out to begin the week making it a Manic Monday as the girls play and sing. Are you prepared or does Keystone have to hand your head back to you on a platter next week? Let the festivities begin. Considering the ongoing complacency that has not yet been resolved, a big drawdown in stocks is expected.

The US dollar is set to have a nice rally on the weekly basis due to positive divergence developing. Everybody and his bro are short the dollar so when they begin panicking and start covering, the buck will likely be a moon shot in the days and weeks ahead. That will send gold lower (now topping-out with neggie d) and as shown above stocks are set-up to collapse in the short-term due to neggie d. The Keystone Speculator is the Father of Divergence Trading. It's a Wild, Wild Life. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday, 6/9/25: The bulls are running wild. Put/call ratios remain low verifying ongoing complacency and euphoric bullishness. Goldman Sachs tells investors to buy the stock market and the Magnificent 7 stocks will rally greatly. Morgan Stanley expects stocks to fly to the moon over the next 6 months with the SPX running to 6500. JPM and C raise their SPX targets. Citi proclaims the S&P 500 is on its way to 6300. Pundits parade across television and internet screens yesterday one more bullish than the next. Watch what the crooks do with their money, not what they say.

Note Added Saturday, 6/14/25: The SPX pulls back a modest -0.4% during the week spending each day choppy flat. The trade deal hype and tariff drama and belief that rate cuts are around the corner keep stocks elevated. The bullishness remains off the charts and traders appear willing to wait it out until the FOMC meeting next week (6/17-6/18) and Fed decision and Chairman Powell comments on Wednesday. Stocks are typically higher 80% of the time the couple days before a Fed meeting so the bulls want to hold the line until the big news on hump day. The weekend will be interesting and Sunday night futures at 6 PM EST since Israel and Iran are now at war. Iran cannot match Israel's military smarts so they will begin attacking sites all over the Middle East to create a broader conflict and try to drag others into the war.

SPX 2-Hour and Daily Charts; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Stock Market Top Is Placed for Hourly and Daily Time Frames Unless King Donnie Happy Talk Occurs

Honey, I'm home. The uber low CPC put/call ratio verifies the out of control bullishness, stock market optimism, blind euphoria, and complete complacency. In addition, the buy the dip crowd cannot help themselves buying anything with a heartbeat. The bears have given-up and joined the bulls and the bulls are buying and selling to other bulls that then buy the stocks back. It is hilarious. It is a beautiful set-up and there will be a lot of pain ahead.

Since the complacency has been in play a couple weeks, you know a top is at hand. To call the top, you need to see negative divergence; this has been the ongoing exercise the last couple posts.

Everything is proceeding as expected. Note that price has now come up for the higher high as compared to mid-May. If bearish the stock market, you should be happy seeing that. Since price makes a matching or higher high, the chart indicators can be assessed for neggie d and viola, all metrics are in neggie d in both the 2-hour and daily time frames. She is topped-out. You can call the top due to neggie d.

The only thing that can save it is King Donnie overnight. He watches the markets so he likely has a few key technicians that are hidden in a backroom, or maybe he uses the same chart technicians chained to desks in the basement of the Eccles Building. Those chartists are whispering in his orange ear that the stock market is topping-out right now. Donnie may bloviate some made-up good news to stick-save the stock market overnight. If not, the expectation is for stocks to sell-off.

It is interesting that price did not technically touch the middle band in recent price behavior, that is also the 20-day MA, so 5867 is on the table. Remember, the SPX is on an island since the gap-up above the 200-day MA occurred. Thus, on the way down, price may stop at the shoreline at 5800-ish, and then flush down through the gap in a heartbeat to 5700-ish which would be an island reversal pattern. Otherwise, price may simply trend lower and in time simply fill the gap as it trails lower.

Note the tight band squeeze on the 2-hour in early June that shot price skyward. Tight bands tell you a big move is at hand but do not predict direction. 

Okay, so now you can call the top. You knew what to look for so you are prepared and were ditching longs today and putting on shorts. You were not? Well, then you can expect Keystone to hand your head over to you on a platter after he takes your shares going forward. People will regret it for Feelin' Groovy. The corrupt Wall Street analysts are raising SPX forecasts to over 6K again; they move the way the wind blows.

What is the next question all of you have? Well, maybe only a couple of you have since most people are stupid nowadays. Yes, since you know stocks are toast in the hourly and daily time frames going forward, how about the weekly time frame? Remember, trading is like playing multi-dimensional chess only time is the dimensions not space.

If you bring up the SPX weekly chart, of course there is the higher high, and remember, the candlestick will change since there are still 2 days remaining in the week. The high price, however, will remain no matter what. The RSI is flat over the last three pertinent weeks so that is neggie d. The MACD, stochastics and money flow all head higher wanting higher highs in price. The stochastics are in overbot territory so pretty much playing out.

The flat, neggie d, RSI on the weekly will conspire with the universal neggie d in the hourly and daily time frames to help beat price down in the short and near term. The weekly chart appears to want another 1 to 3 weeks to top-out but again, the week is not over. If she drops as projected, a lot of damage can occur tomorrow and Friday and the chart may display more negativity. Let the weekly chart play out this week since the candlestick will be finalized and then on Monday a new candle will start for the new week and that depiction will tell more about the weekly time frame going forward.

Will King Donnie bloviate this evening or through the night to save the stock market from its top right now and projection to selloff going forward? Will Donnie save the day for his wealthy friends or is the orange head as clueless as it looks? Also, it works in reverse. If bad news occurs overnight, it will be a catalyst that really gets the downside flushing quickly lower. Maybe a Black Thursday on tap? Plan accordingly. Traders are singing that It's the Same OId Song a la The Four Tops until they all start running for the exits at the same time in a full panic. The Four Tops show the unbridled joy and happiness of singing and dancing. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 6/5/25, at 4:37 AM EST: Hey, what is going on? Futures are going the wrong way; it is more Upside as Southern Avenue grooves. S&P futures are up +14 with the VIX down to 17.46 and copper buoyant up +0.7%. The ECB rate decision is on tap this morning and the US Monthly Jobs Report is tomorrow morning. The focus is on the unemployment rate because if it takes a move higher it will put rate cuts on the table.

Note Added Thursday Evening, 6/5/25, at 6:40 PM EST: Stocks begin receiving the neggie d spankdown as the Thursday session started, but happy talk occurs after a phone call between King Donnie and Dictator Xi. Stocks rally on the news and also likely giving the benny of the doubt to the bulls ahead of the US Monthly Jobs Report only 14 hours away. Benny Hill. Then comes the feud between Musk and Trump; the orange head versus the space cadet. They exchange baby talk on social internet. Meow, meow. It is fun to watch; crony capitalism run amuck. Stocks reverse course and selloff mainly due to a -20% collapse in TSLA stock so the neggie d spankdown day one is complete. The jobs circus may throw a curveball but even if there is a big rally, the expectation would be for stocks to set up with a top again in a few days. The headline jobs number is voodoo math. Instead, pay attention to the unemployment rate now at 4.2% for a couple months. Chairman Powell hints that a 4.4% unemployment rate would put rate cuts firmly on the table. Keystone has explained how the US has been in a labor recession for the last 1-1/2 years. Thus, if the unemployment rate comes in at 4.0% which is very unlikely, the US labor recession will be over and it is a great and healthy sign for the economy. If the rate is 4.1% or remains at 4.2%, status quo, stocks may be soggy since rate cuts may be a few months off still yet. If the rate bumps higher to 4.3% or 4.4% or higher, the US overall recession is at the doorstep or already started. Stocks, however, may rally since rate cuts will be coming faster than expected. Such is America's filthy corrupt crony capitalism system. The neggie d spankdown should continue.

Note Added Friday Morning, 6/6/25, D-Day, at 5:31 AM EST: 81 years ago, the US and Allied forces launch the amphibious assault on Normandy to save the Free World. Star Spangled Banner. In 2025, King Donnie is incompetent at stopping the Ukraine War. Trump promised during the campaign to end the conflict 24 hours. It was an asinine lie only spouted to get votes. Donnie is the modern-day Neville Chamberlain bringing World War III closer due to his Putin butt-kissing. S&P futures rise +26 with the jobs report less than 3 hours away. VIX 18.21. 10-year yield 4.38%. Copper -1.4% slipping away.

Note Added Saturday, 6/7/25, at 7:01 AM EST: The bulls win after the jobs report. The unemployment rate, drum roll please, stayed the same at 4.2% for three months running. It is actually up from 4.19%, that was rounded up to 4.2%, to 4.22%, that was rounded down to 4.2%. If it was only 0.03 percentage points higher it would have been a 4.3% unemployment rate but who's counting. Wages jump which immediately waves the inflation flag. Inflation cannot exist without wage inflation and higher numbers on this front says stagflation. Yields rise after the jobs report reflecting inflation concerns. There is not an increase in need for faster rate cuts but stocks rally anyway. Drilling down, the bulk of the jobs were created in healthcare and leisure and hospitality. Comically, the 300 million Americans that are struggling to get by each week have made themselves sick with stress needing medical care while the 30 million greedy bastards that screwed everyone else over the last 5 decades continue spending and traveling needing peons to clean their bedsheets and toilets, cook their meals, and carry their bags. Isn't America great? Land of the have's and have-not's. Traders see a weaker jobs report under the surface that leads to the bump higher in stocks and it was likely sustained by news on trade that US officials will begin more discussions with China on Monday (this was a lie because on Friday night it is already pushed back to sometime next week; later, delegations from the US and China are boarding airplanes to fly to London to meet on Monday; both sides must be in a panic at what they see coming). Bring up the SPX 2-hour and daily charts and you see full negative divergence remaining across all indicators. Black Monday?

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, whipsaws back to the long side yesterday at SPX 5925. The stock market is trading on copper and commodities this week thus far. The joy sends stocks higher but this morning futures are lower creating sogginess. As copper and commodities go, so goes the stock market. Stay alert for a potential Whipsaw back to the short side this week.

Keybot the Quant