SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross; SPX 4358 Line in Sand

The SPX 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart dictates whether stocks are in a short-term (ST) bull or bear market. The bulls are trying to pull the SPX above the 200 EMA at 4358 this week but whoopsies daisies, they lose their grip yesterday so price remains in the ST bear market pattern.

Bulls need the SPX above 4358 which will ignite several days of upside partying for those holding stocks long. Bears need the SPX to drop from here and prove that the back test of the 200 EMA at 4358 was successful and price will now collapse going forward targeting the prior low at 4225-ish to start. Choose your poison. She was Poison in the Well, and I drank it. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 10/14/23: The SPX pops at the opening bell yesterday jumping above 4358 so the bulls were walking around with chests puffed. Before 11 AM EST, however, stocks fell apart and the SPX loses 4358 falling to 4311 and closing at 4328. The ST bear market remains in play. The battle continues on Monday. The 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart bull/bear line in the sand is at 4327-4328. Check the 200 EMA once trading begins on Monday since it may adjust slightly one way or the other. Stocks are soggy into the peak of the new moon for the month occurring now (which is typical). Also, traders trimmed longs concerned about news and events that may occur over the weekend.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 10/17/23, at 4:31 AM EST: The SPX pops at the opening bell yesterday flying to the HOD at 4383.33 at 11 AM EST then traveling flat the remainder of the day to end the session at 4374 that is above the 200 EMA at 4358. Thus, the bulls are 16 points above the critical short-term bull/bear line in the sand. Another back kiss and bounce or die decision at 4358 is likely going forward.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 10/19/23, at 7:04 AM EST: The bears come to play this week punching the bulls in the nose and taking their lunch money. The SPX collapses to 4315 (another 100 points lower to 4214 will likely create a historic US stock market crash) so the short-term bear market remains in play. Pope Powell brings the tablets down from On High today and will tell global traders how to trade. He is speaking at the Economic Club of New York. Stocks, bonds and currencies will move on Powell's words at noon time as economist elbow each other at the free buffet shoving rubber chicken and lasagna into their greedy pie-holes. A back kiss back up to 4327-4328 is on the table where the bears would make the bounce or die decision. If Powell lays an egg at munch time today, the short-term bear market will worsen and a likely test of the do or die level at 4214 would be on the table going forward. It would be historic (a crash will occur thereafter) if SPX 4214 fails (a 200 to 800-point drop and more would be on the table below 4214).

Note Added Saturday, 10/21/23: The bears take the SPX down through the 10-mth MA early warning system at 4257 and next target the critical 12-mth MA bull/bear long-term line in the sand at 4207. The SPX begins next week from the 4224 palindrome that is also the LOD Friday. Price prints a low at 4216 two weeks prior and 4238 three weeks ago. A back kiss of the 4257 is on the table. Bulls win above 4238-4257. Bears win below 4207-4224. If the SPX fails through 4207, it is lights-out for the US stock market and a major crash is likely going forward. Is it The Final Countdown? 

Note Added 10/27/23: SPX is spanked down from the 200 EMA at 4358 to 4103 an important low.

Note Added 11/2/23: The SPX comes up to pierce the 200 EMA at 4275 and pops up through so it is off to the races for the bulls. It is not the final countdown, yet.

Note Added 12/20/23: The SPX prints 4778 ready to print a new all-time high but alas, it stumbles. The US stock indexes reverse intraday by -1% and more. The SPX drops to 4698. The 200 EMA is at 4583 rising sharply setting up a potential new meeting point at 4640-4650.

UST10Y 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Weekly and Monthly Charts; 10-Year Yield Placing Long-Term Top

Yields are a big story over the last couple weeks. You can see the big jut higher in the UST10Y (TNX) yield on the weekly chart above. Everybody and his brother from a different mother say yields will continue higher forever. JP Morgan CEO Dimon, while looking around for a grandmother to fleece, proclaims 7% ahead for the 10-year yield. What is he smoking?

The long-term monthly chart is cooked in full negative divergence. There is no more juice available on the monthly basis to take the 10-year yield higher. The RSI and stochastics are overbot agreeable to a pullback in yield. The red rising wedge pattern is bearish for yields.

The Aroon green line on the monthly chart are the investors expecting higher rates forever and they are all patting each other on the back in 100% agreement that yields will go up forever. Likewise, the Aroon red line representing the traders that want yields to pull back agree 100% that yields will go up forever. No matter who you are or what you think about the direction of yields forward, everyone, 100%, agree that the 10-year yield will rise for months and months into the future. They are all wrong. The Aroon is a contrarian signal.

It is common sense that when the boat is fully loaded to one side, in this case every single person expecting higher yields for months and months forward, these folks are typically wrong. The monthly chart is nasty. Of course there may be fits and starts but those expecting the 10-year to catapult far above 5% will be disappointed.

Watch the MACD line on the monthly chart for this month. If October finishes with the neggie d in place, the top is in on the monthly basis. If the MACD line sneaks a hair higher, that would extend the top for the 10-year yield by a month or two but no big move to the upside in yield would be expected during that period.

Discussing Treasury notes and bonds is tricky since yields move opposite to price. A bond bull is a trader that expects bond and note prices to rise and when that occurs, yields drop. Conversely, a bond bear is a trader that expects bone and note prices to drop which sends yields higher. Last week was a selloff in both stocks and bonds (yields higher) until Friday when stocks rallied and bonds came in a bit (both equities and bonds were bot on Friday).

The previous charts show the housing recession ongoing this year. A labor recession started a month ago so add this to the list. The Federal Reserve is most focused on the labor picture and with the blow-out 336K jobs number last Friday everyone says a recession is now completely off the table. Wrong again. The recession is likely starting right now in real-time. The data will not confirm a recession until many quarters after the recession begins.

Thus, if yields are topping out and would be expected to trail lower from now into springtime, that means notes and bonds will be bot sending yields lower. Considering that recession is at the door and economic conditions are worse than the data reflects (the upper middle class and wealthy elite that benefited from over a decade of Fed money printing, the rich got richer and poor poorer, are keeping the US economy afloat but they cannot do that forever), and that the SPX weekly chart remains weak and bleak, the expectation would be a continued selloff in stocks going forward which would occur in concert with yields trailing lower (money flowing out of the stock market into notes and bonds (price up yield down) chasing perceived safety as equities tumble lower).

The weekly chart above has the same vibe as the monthly chart but there are differences. The overbot conditions for yield, and rising wedge pattern, are bearish for yields. All the chart indicators are in negative divergence so there is no more juice to take yields higher, however, note the thrust over the last couple weeks. There is momentum there so a bunch of sideways chop is likely ahead for a week or three as the weekly chart tops out.

The Aroon on the weekly chart is the same description as the monthly chart. Everyone, including the taxi cab driver, Uber driver, Lyft driver, the doorman, shoeshine boy, an analyst holding a coffee cup, and television pundits, universally agree that the 10-year yield will go up for weeks and weeks ahead. The Aroon is a contrarian indicator so the boat fully loaded to one side tells you it is far more likely that yields are topping out over the next week or three, around current levels, and will begin a multi-week down move in yield which will also help kick-in the start of the multi-month down move in yield.

What does all this mumbo-jumbo mean? The 10-year yield is topping-out on both a weekly and monthly basis although there is some short-term momo due to inflation and job data and Fed speak. If you bring up the daily chart, you see the indicators going neggie d but the MACD wants one more high in yield on the daily basis. Thus, expect the 10-year yield to be buoyant for a couple days and that marks the top on the daily basis (say, Tuesday or Wednesday) so yield will then retreat in the daily time frame.

A choppy sideways move would be expected over the coming days and couple weeks as the 10-year yield tops out and begins falling. The timing makes perfect sense. Equities may want to rally further after Friday's thrust higher and this buoyancy in stocks may continue for a week or two as the 10-year yield chops sideways and tops out.

Then, probably when the SPX daily chart tops out with neggie d, stocks will begin falling like rocks taking out prior lows and as the panic sets in, traders will buy notes and bonds sending yields lower. Keystone does not hold any positions long or short Treasuries now but for those of you so inclined, you can look at scaling into the TLT ETF going forward (that is beaten to a pulp) as an intermediate-term trade say into the new year. That's my story and I'm sticking to it. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 10/10/23, at 5:22 AM EST: US 10-year yield 4.65%.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 10/11/23, at 5:55 AM EST: US 10-year yield 4.56%.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 10/12/23, at 7:12 AM EST: US 10-year yield 4.56%.

Note Added Saturday Morning, 10/14/23, at 4:04 AM EST: US 10-year yield 4.62%.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 10/17/23, at 4:30 AM EST: US 10-year yield 4.75%.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 10/25/23, at 10:07 AM EST: US 10-year yield 4.91% the 10-year topped 5% to 5.02% this week).

Note Added Thursday Morning, 10/26/23, at 3:00 AM EST: US 10-year yield 4.98%.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 11/2/23, at 7:09 AM EST: The US 10-year yield is 4.70% in retreat (yields down, bond and note prices up) after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's news conference yesterday afternoon when rates are held steady.

Note Added Thursday Evening, 11/2/23, at 6:39 PM EST: The US 10-year yield is 4.66%.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 11/9/23, at 7:04 AM EST: US 10-year yield 4.53% and dropped through the 4.50% level.

Note Added 11/29/23: 10-year yield 4.27%.

Note Added 12/1/23: 10-year yield 4.22%.

Note Added 12/6/23: 10-year yield 4.12%.

Note Added 12/15/23: 10-year yield 3.91%. The 10-year drops below 4%. Of course it does.

Note Added 12/20/23: 10-year yield drops to 3.86% (yields down note and bond prices up). The major US stock indexes take a hard reversal intraday losing more than -1% across the board. Stocks are selling off and that money goes into the perceived safety of US Treasuries sending yields lower. Of course it does.

The Keystone Speculator's Unemployment Rate Chart; LABOR RECESSION BEGINS 9/8/23

The US Monthly Jobs Report was a blowout 336K jobs so everyone and his bro proclaim that a recession is nowhere in sight. The recession takes up permanent residence with Godot. As usual, Keystone brings the wet blanket to the party. A recession is taken completely off the table by the Wall Street smart cats but the labor, or jobs, recession actually started 9/8/23 a month ago. The US remains in a housing recession and manufacturing recession.

The last real US recession was 2008-2009 (excluding the COVID-19 pandemic turmoil) so any of you wet behind the ears young folks in your low 30's and younger are completely clueless about recessions. You will learn fast. First of all, those plans you made on the kitchen table, projecting where your savings will be in a few years and other fun stuff like a home, crumple them up and throw them in the garbage.

Your life is going to be nothing like you think it is on paper right now. In fact, your boss is going to call you in the office this month and tell you to pack your bags and get out drop-kicking you into the dumpster on the far side of the parking lot. You will walk the green mile back to your cubicle, pack up the family pictures, the coins in the top desk drawer for the coffee machine, and house plant that needs watered, taking one last look at the place you spent so much time. 

As a final blow making it real that you no longer have a job, your manager asks for your security door card and when you leave the door clicks behind you and you no longer have access. You wonder how you will tell your significant other, or the kids, and what will the neighbors think. People will think you are lazy if you lose your job. Lots of wild crazy thoughts will run through your head as it starts to feel like your life is spinning out of control. You think getting another job would be easy but there are a couple dozen other people wanting the same job and your contacts do not return your calls. Your boss told you the place could not survive without you and now you realize that was smoke being blown up your butt.

Good luck young folks. You are in for a treat over the next couple years. You will learn valuable life lessons. Here is an article Keystone wrote about recessions just before the pandemic that went viral and remains applicable. If a young person you are about to learn a lot about the game of life going forward.

Anyhoo, the labor recession ended in early 2011 and the good times were in place until the pandemic in early 2020. What a run. This is the period that many young folks are programmed to think the groovy times will last forever, like Itchykoo Park. They will not. The jobs report on 2/1/19 threatened a labor recession but this was snuffed-out quickly and the good times continued until the China Virus hit in 2020.

The blue line shows the massive spike in unemployment due to covid up to 15%. One in seven Americans lost their jobs in the time it takes you to blink. Alas, America's crony capitalism system saves the day with the Fed printing money like madmen (monetary stimulus) already ongoing since March 2009, and the Congress kicks in the money machine with obscene fiscal stimulus which in part, creates the Biden inflation.

All that money should never have been given to Americans during the pandemic. If you did not have savings, too bad. You would have learned a valuable life lesson. Instead, everyone now knows to be a bum, complain, moan, be an adult baby, a cry baby, and ask to suck the government teat each day. All of you realize that capitalism does not exist, right? You are an idiot if you think otherwise. You are watching the end game of America's unfixable corrupt crony capitalism system. It is fascinating. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Daily and Weekly Charts; Daily Time Frame Bullish but Weekly Time Frame Remains Bearish

The BPSPX, SPXA150R, CPC and CPCE put/call ratios, and most importantly, positive divergence on the SPX hourly and daily charts, announce a stock market bottom at hand. Keystone covered about 80% of the index shorts and flipped those positions long at the opening bell yesterday. The charts could have been posted but there is no point to it since the blogs are not supported well enough considering the tens of thousands viewers each day.

Remember, trading is playing multi-dimensional chess where the time frames are the dimensions. The SPX hourly and daily charts are set up with possie d. The SPX price sank lower and lower, and then matching lows, but the chart indicators ALL started sloping upwards (positive divergence). This means that price is loaded up with rocket fuel and sitting on the launch pad waiting for someone, or something, to light the fuse.

The US Monthly Jobs Report day is the catalyst. The jobs number is a blowout over 3 hundo thousand jobs but the unemployment rate remains at 3.8% now signaling a labor recession. Keystone will have to explain this later. Everybody and his brother say a US economic recession is now completely off the table after the jobs report. It is all happy talk. Au Contraire, Pierre. The US is in a housing recession for 9 months, as well as a manufacturing recession this year, and the labor recession stated last month.

The possie d rocket fuel in the daily time frame is ignited and whoosh, up she goes. It is interesting that price did not touch the 200-day MA at 4208 since it was in the neighborhood. The 4210-ish level is where the 12-month MA is at which determines if the stock market is in a cyclical bull or bear market pattern. The NYA 40-wk MA cross already failed signaling a cyclical bear market ahead for equities.

The charts above are showing many moving averages and other metrics converging on the 4170-4210 range. It is for all the marbles so pay attention as the month plays out. If SPX 4170-4210 is lost, the US stock market will likely crash. It's fun.

But for now, the possie d, falling green wedge and oversold RSI, stochastics and money flow, on the daily chart, and toss in a lower band violation, all say up and away (bullish). The middle band that is also the 20-day MA at 4357 is an upside target. Also, the H&S neckline (see previous chart) is at 4340.

There is also a gap fill (orange circle) needed at 4370-4400 (includes the 100-day MA at 4393) and the 20-wk MA is at 4404. All of these numbers serve as upside resistance targets; 4340, 4357, 4370-4400, 4404.

So the bulls likely have legs on the daily basis but the Congressional mess continues as explained below. The lack of a House speaker creates negativity. The new moon peaks on Saturday, 10/14/23, so stocks may be selling off and weak Friday through Monday.

Putting the happy talk aside, note that the SPX weekly chart remains weak and bleak. Thus, the relief rally will likely be short-lived (a few days maybe week or two). The SPX weekly chart will reexert its negativity and it wants lower lows with the SPX price on the weekly basis going forward.

On the weekly chart, the blue circle shows a Tweezer Bottom. Price makes a matching and lower low and the RSI is positively diverging, barely, but this activity will conspire with the positive daily chart to help boost price higher. Ditto the oversold stochastics on the weekly chart that are agreeable to a relief move higher.

However, the weekly chart indicators MACD, histogram, stochastics and money flow, remain weak and bleak wanting the SPX to print lower lows on the weekly basis. Thus, the positivity in the daily time frame needs to play out and then price will likely roll over and drop again to produce lower lows on the weekly basis.

Do you think there is a battle royale planned at the 4170-4210 range? It will likely act as a magnet going forward and where the fate of the entire US stock market will be decided. Remember that Royals song by Lorde? Click your fingers to the one hit wonder.

If you were short, you got punched in the face on Friday. Stocks should move higher in the daily time frame so you have to decide if you want to take the pain or immediately jump ship. When the daily chart goes neggie d, the long positions can be dumped and flipped short. If you are a longer-term player and holding some shorts, you may consider letting the trades remain in place since the SPX weekly chart is weak and bleak wanting further lows in equities on the weekly basis (later this month or by early November the SPX will be below 4200).

Congress is a mess with the House leaderless giving Speaker McCarthy the boot. There may be a vote mid-week for a new speaker and if that fails, fear and panic may return in force since the House will be a complete mess.

The House republicans display incompetence when in the last election, aside from the abortion issue, the 'glaring theme of those elected was competence'. Americans are sick of the republocrat and demopublican filth and scum and simply want to 'elect responsible capable competent managers to office'. It is not rocket science, and Keystone knows rocket science.

The Jordan character wants the House speaker job but he is Trump's boot-licker and puppet and comically, the orange head provides an endorsement for Jordan; it is the kiss of death. Jordan should have told Trump to keep his mouth shut. The endorsement guarantees that not one single democrat will vote for Jordan.

In addition, it sets up the moderate republicans in the House to be little b*tches and buckle under to the whims of King Donnie and the right wing of the party, and vote for Jordan. That is probably not going to happen. The interim speaker Patrick McHenry will likely end up the speaker until the November 2024 election. Channeling Patrick Henry, Patrick McHenry will proclaim, "Give me the House speakership, or give me death!"

It is obnoxious inconsequential political theater since the United States is already gonzo; you're watching the demise of America's corrupt crony capitalism system and living world history in real-time. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

BPSPX S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index Daily Chart

The BPSPX, SPXA150R, CPC and CPCE put/call ratios, and most importantly, positive divergence on the SPX hourly and daily charts, announce a stock market bottom at hand. Keystone covered about 80% of the index shorts and flipped those positions long at the opening bell yesterday. The charts could have been posted but there is no point to it since the blogs are not supported well enough considering the tens of thousands viewers each day.

Remember the previous BPSPX post, Keystone told you to watch for a six percentage-point reversal to the upside to confirm a potential stock market bottom. You're still watching. However, a drop to 28 is bigtime. That is way down in the cellar so the BPSPX is right at, or very near, its bottom. From the current 28, a 6-point up move is 34 to confirm a stock market relief rally.

The bulls were in full control in June and July. The move above the 70 level kicked-in the afterburners sending the SPX skyward but alas, there is always a night after a day, a yin and a yang, so the BPSPX tops out at 80. A 6-point reversal is 74 and that occurs in August issuing a market sell signal.

The BPSPX then loses the 70 level for a double-whammy sell signal. The bulls try to save the day in late August and stage a 5 percentage-point reversal, from 53 to 58, but five is not six and the BPSPX ran out of gas collapsing lower.

The BPSPX is consistent where you would expect a bottom to occur. Ditto the SPXA150R. These, along with the other metrics, helped call the Friday bottom. Markets remain choppy and erratic and if Fed Chairman Powell coughs it will move markets.

If the BPSPX crosses above 34, that is a market buy signal and above 35 would be a double-whammy buy signal.

Putting the happy talk aside, note that the SPX weekly chart remains weak and bleak. Thus, the relief rally will likely be short-lived (a few days maybe week or two). The SPX weekly chart will reexert its negativity and it wants lower lows with the SPX price on the weekly basis going forward.

Congress is a mess with the House leaderless giving Speaker McCarthy the boot. There may be a vote mid-week for a new speaker and if that fails, fear and panic may return in force since the House will be a complete mess.

The House republicans display incompetence when in the last election, aside from the abortion issue, the 'glaring theme of those elected was competence'. Americans are sick of the republocrat and demopublican filth and scum and simply want to 'elect responsible capable competent managers to office'. It is not rocket science, and Keystone knows rocket science.

The Jordan character wants the House speaker job but he is Trump's boot-licker and puppet and comically, the orange head provides an endorsement for Jordan; it is the kiss of death. Jordan should have told Trump to keep his mouth shut. The endorsement guarantees that not one single democrat will vote for Jordan.

In addition, it sets up the moderate republicans in the House to be little b*tches and buckle under to the whims of King Donnie and the right wing of the party, and vote for Jordan. That is probably not going to happen. The interim speaker Patrick McHenry will likely end up the speaker until the November 2024 election. Channeling Patrick Henry, Patrick McHenry will proclaim, "Give me the House speakership, or give me death!"

It is obnoxious inconsequential political theater since the United States is already gonzo; you're watching the demise of America's corrupt crony capitalism system and living world history in real-time. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 10/12/23, Thursday Morning, at 7:14 AM EST: BPSPX tags 35.20 a six percentage-point reversal and above the 35 line receiving a double-whammy stock market buy signal.

CPC and CPCE Put/Call Ratios and SPX S&P 500 Daily Charts

The BPSPX, SPXA150R, CPC and CPCE put/call ratios, and most importantly, positive divergence on the SPX hourly and daily charts, announce a stock market bottom at hand. Keystone covered about 80% of the index shorts and flipped those positions long at the opening bell yesterday. The charts could have been posted but there is no point to it since the blogs are not supported well enough considering the tens of thousands viewers each day.

Remember in the summertime, Keystone told you the market participants were far too fearless and complacent and the low put/calls signal a top at hand? The television pundits said the opposite opining daily on how everyone was fearful. Wrong. The low put/call ratios are plain as day (red circles) verifying the complacency and signaling a stock market top. Everyone was wrong except Keystone.

So the stock market tops-out and the CPC and CPCE put/call ratios recoil back to the upside. Whoosh. That did not take long to descend from happy fearlessness and complacency into dark bloodshed, panic and fear. Humans are an emotional bunch.

The high put/call's signal panic and fear and time to buy. You want to typically run towards the burning building while everyone else is running away with their hair on fire. The put/calls are very erratic which is atypical behavior and verifies the craziness in markets these days. In mid-August, the stock market goes from panic and fear, back to complacency, then back to fear and panic in only a few days time. That represents traders running around like chickens with their heads chopped off.

The matching tops on the CPCE above 1.10, when 0.80 and higher typically signals a potential bottom in stocks, and the spike to 1.60 on the CPC, well above the 1.20 level that typically signals a potential bottom in stocks, told you, along with other metrics, that it was a good time to pick a bottom. And it is a very nice bottom.

The next step is simply to wait and watch for the put/calls to drop to new lows and signal a top again. For now, traders have been panicking and feeling fear for the last couple months. Investors do not want to hold stocks now because they are worried so, if the trade looks good either fundamentally and/or technically, take the shares off their hands.

Putting the happy talk aside, note that the SPX weekly chart remains weak and bleak. Thus, the relief rally will likely be short-lived (a few days maybe week or two). The SPX weekly chart will reexert its negativity and it wants lower lows with the SPX price on the weekly basis going forward.

Congress is a mess with the House leaderless giving Speaker McCarthy the boot. There may be a vote mid-week for a new speaker and if that fails, fear and panic may return in force since the House will be a complete mess.

The House republicans display incompetence when in the last election, aside from the abortion issue, the 'glaring theme of those elected was competence'. Americans are sick of the republocrat and demopublican filth and scum and simply want to 'elect responsible capable competent managers to office'. It is not rocket science, and Keystone knows rocket science.

The Jordan character wants the House speaker job but he is Trump's boot-licker and puppet and comically, the orange head provides an endorsement for Jordan; it is the kiss of death. Jordan should have told Trump to keep his mouth shut. The endorsement guarantees that not one single democrat will vote for Jordan.

In addition, it sets up the moderate republicans in the House to be little b*tches and buckle under to the whims of King Donnie and the right wing of the party, and vote for Jordan. That is probably not going to happen. The interim speaker Patrick McHenry will likely end up the speaker until the November 2024 election. Channeling Patrick Henry, Patrick McHenry will proclaim, "Give me the House speakership, or give me death!"

It is obnoxious inconsequential political theater since the United States is already gonzo; you're watching the demise of America's corrupt crony capitalism system and living world history in real-time. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Fibonacci Retracements; Cyclical Bull/Bear Line in the Sand at SPX 4200-4210

The US stock market is making a big decision these days either to fall into a crash scenario, or, stage a relief rally and keep the wolf at the door a bit longer. The SPX drops to a LOD at 4216 yesterday and ends the session at 4229.

The critical SPX 12-month MA at 4207 decides if stocks remain in a cyclical bull market going forward, or, if stocks decide to enter a cyclical bear market and begin falling apart. The NYA 40-wk MA cross is already in failure signaling a cyclical bear market ahead for stocks but the SPX 12-mth MA cross needs to confirm the developing negativity.

The 200-week MA at 4202 is a line in the sand.

The Fibonacci retracements for the big rally from the October bottom to the July/August top are shown with the blue lines. The 38% Fib retracement is at 4206. Are you noticing a theme?

Yes, a confluence of support for all the market marbles is formed at 4202-4207 just call it 4200-4210. It is the cyclical bull/bear line in the sand. If SPX loses 4200-4210, all hope is lost, and any of you long the stock market would get fleeced.

Since 4200-4210 is such critical support going forward, it would not be surprising for price to bounce for a few days as the bulls try to save the day. S&P futures are up +15 about 45 minutes before the opening bell for the US regular trading session on this hump day.

If you are long the stock market, get down on your knees, and begin to pray, that 4200 is not breached. Bad things will happen below 4200 (crash).

If the 38% Fib fails, the 50% Fib at 4085 would be on tap next. This 4085 target lines up with the SPX H&S pattern downside target.

The 2-10 spread (US yield curve) is the least inverted in 1 year! Recession is knocking at the door. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

TRAN (DJT) Dow Jones Transportation Index Daily Chart; Trannies Down -12% in 2 Months in a Correction; Dow Theory Malaise

The trannies (TRAN; DJT) are going down at the stock market party. That can mean different things nowadays. The Dow Jones Transportation Average collapses -12% over the last 2 months now in a correction (down more than -10%). The IYT tranny ETF is down -14% in the same time frame heading towards a bear market (-20%).

From a Dow Theory perspective, the falling trannies, confirmed by the falling Dow industrials, forecasts doom and gloom ahead for the stock market. That said, note that price is using the 200-day MA at 14755 as support over the last few days. It would be a big deal if it failed. However, the chart indicators are positively diverged (green lines) as price prints a matching low. This tells you that the trannies want to bounce from here in the daily time frame.

However again, if you bring up the weekly chart, you can see that the indicators are weak and bleak wanting lower lows in price on the weekly basis. Thus, trannies should bounce anytime and establish a few-day rally but then will roll back over on the weekly basis and continue the multi-week down move with lower lows in prices ahead.

IYT price has not yet come all the way down for the matching low so if you want to play a quickie long, wait for that to happen to confirm the possie d and that the bottom is in on the daily basis. Price will rally so you can make some dough but do not marry the position, get out of it as soon as it gives you some profit since the IYT weekly chart remains weak and bleak like the TRAN (DJT) chart.

IYT is trying to hold the 50-wk MA support at 231. It would be a big deal when it fails. IYT sits at 231 now so it has to make a bounce or die decision from this price support. Keystone is not holding any positions long or short in the trannies these days. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; Utilities Collapse to June 2020 Lows a Bad Omen for US Stock Market

Keystone has been harping on the utes for the last 3 months. Utilities falling into a weekly downtrend and also losing the 50-week MA opens the door to bad things (crash) for the US stock market. Be very afraid.

UTIL, or DJU, has crashed -19% over the last 3 months and -13% over the last 3 weeks. The weak utilities places the stock market into a crash profile going forward. Conversely, analysts, pundits and investors keep predicting SPX 4600-5000 by end of year. This is why Keystone is never invited to any fancy dinner parties. That, and he also eats with his hands.

Interestingly, note how the utilities were well bid during the COVID-19 pandemic as traders seek perceived safety (upward-sloping green channel). Then, as the pandemic peaked at the end of last year and start of this year, morphing into the endemic phase (covid is now like the regular flu), utilities begin the long trek lower (downward-sloping red channel) leading into the recent collapse.

Oh my. NEE is on its knees losing -9% yesterday and crashing from 67.5 to 50.0, a -26% crash, in only 6 days. NEP crashes from 48 to 24, a -50% crash, over the last month. That will teach you to invest in those garbage ESG and climate change companies. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart with 12-Mth MA Cross; Price Failures at 10-Mth MA at 4218 (Now 4257) and 12-Mth MA at 4177 (Now 4207) Would Signal Cyclical Bear Market

The top two key indicators that dictate a cyclical bull versus a cyclical bear market are the NYA 40-week MA cross and SPX 12-month MA cross. When both are in agreement, the stock market direction is cast in stone.

Right now, they are not in sync. The NYA chart was previously posted showing the failure at the 40-week MA calling for a cyclical bear market ahead. Stocks are in a transition zone since the SPX 12-mth MA negative cross has not yet occurred. Thus, we are in no man's land. The Man Who Sold the World.

The stock market is on shaky ground as traders, analysts, pundits and commentators fight over who has the larger upside SPX target for year-end. The utilities are in a weekly downtrend and below the 50-wk MA for many weeks placing the broad stock market in a crash profile a harbinger for very bad things to happen. Alas, traders continue tripping over each other to buy dips afraid of missing the bottom ahead of what everyone and his brother expects to be a big upside finish for equities. The boat is fully loaded on the bull side everyone ready to ring the SPX 5K bell when the new year hits. Instead, they will probably all be drowning their sorrows in a mug of beer.

Something important happened last week but no one noticed because no one knows what to watch. As explained above, the SPX 12-month MA cross at 4177 is a bigtime cyclical market indicator perhaps the most important market signal that exists.

The 12-mth has a little brother; the 10-month MA at 4218, that provides early signals for potential cyclical market moves. The SPX fell to 4238 (long lower shadow tail on the candlestick) only 20 points from the early warning system. Think of the 10-mth MA like a yellow traffic light when you are driving your car. It tells you to be cautious and slow down and you may have to stop. The 12-mth MA is the red light where all hope is lost; the car stops and begins drifting backwards.

The critical 12-month MA is at 4177 and perhaps the most important number in the stock market right now. If SPX 4177 fails, it is very likely that the stock market is going to crash. October is the crash month so that timing would be dead-on. The 12-mth is 41 points below the 10-mth. So stock market carnage is on tap if the SPX loses only 70 points from the Friday close, and then if another 41 points is lost, 111 points in all, the stock market will likely crash and anyone long will not only lose their shirts, but also pants, underwear and fancy socks.

Stocks are typically buoyant moving through the full moon peak on Friday/Saturday creating a lot of give and take on Friday. New money comes into the stock market to begin a month especially to begin a new quarter so this is another happy wind at the bull's back.

If you want to eliminate all the noise and boil the market down to an easy call, wait for the NYA 40-wk MA cross and SPX 12-mth MA cross signals to agree. If the SPX fails at 4177, there is blood and carnage on tap with traders running for their lives. If the NYA rallies and moves back above its 40-wk MA, the bulls are back in biz and the analysts and pundits on Wall Street will breathe a sigh of relief as the year-end rally is back on the table. Choose your poison. Poison Heart. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 10/2/23, Monday Morning, at 3:45 AM EST: The corrupt US Congress agrees to avert a government shutdown on the weekend by kicking the can down the road for 45 more days. The sickening drama will continue through Halloween into just before Thanksgiving when another government shutdown deadline will occur. S&P futures rally +28 points on the happy talk. A new monthly candlestick for October begins today.

Note Added 10/3/23, Tuesday Morning, at 4:49 AM EST: It is the new month of October so the monthly chart begins a new candlestick and the 10 and 12-mth MA's adjust. Wow. The stock market was stabbed in the eye yesterday. The 10-month MA is at 4262 and the critical 12-mth MA, for all the marbles, is at 4212. The SPX drops yesterday to 4260 taking an initial stab at the 10-mth MA support at 4262 to loosen it up. The early warning system for a potential cyclical bear market ahead is sounding. Price ends the Monday session at 4288 only 26 points above the 10-mth and only 76 points above Armageddon (12-mth). It's fun. The bulls better get their act together fast or they will get their heads chopped off. It's a Wild, Wild Life.

Note Added 10/4/23, Wednesday Morning, at 7:10 AM EST: The US stock market pukes yesterday with the SPX printing a LOD at and 4216 ending the session at 4229. The 10-month MA support at 4257 failed and now becomes overhead resistance. The critical 12-mth MA at 4207, that dictates a cyclical bull versus cyclical bear market ahead, is only 22 points away and price came within 9 points of this Armageddon. The bulls better do something fast otherwise, they are going to fall into a meat grinder.

Note Added 10/6/23, Friday Morning, at 7:56 AM EST: The SPX is at 4258.19 this Friday morning only a half hour away from the US Monthly Jobs Report. The 10-mth MA is 4259.86 and 12-mth MA 4209.85 (4207-4210). Do you think the 10-mth MA is important? That is where price sits. The ole time trader's put a lot of weight into the 10-mth MA so the pivot from 4258-4260, perhaps after the jobs report drama, will tell you who wins going forward.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; H&S Pattern

Here is another look at the SPX H&S (head and shoulders) pattern posted a few days ago. Price bounces directly off the 150-day MA at 4272 and prints the back kiss of the H&S neckline at 4340. The full moon peaked on Friday helping to buoy stocks. The bears win with a successful back kiss where price is spanked back down now at 4288.

If happy talk occurs overnight into the new week of trading, do not rule out another back test of the neckline. That juicy gap at 4370-4400 needs filled. Price has violated the lower band so the middle band, that is also the 20-day MA at 4409, and dropping sharply, is on the table. Note that the falling 20-day MA will meet the rising 100-day MA at 4386 at the 4370-4400 gap fill. The 4370-4400 area is a confluence and magnetic force that may want to pull price higher again especially on happy talk.

Friday's candlestick is negative since the bulls and bears battled all day but the bears won with the candlestick ending below the halfway point. Since the back kiss was successful (for bears), price now sets its sight on punching down through the important 150-day MA support at 4272. If this fails, the 200-day MA at 4199 is on the table.

The slope of the 150-day MA is very important for all of your stock plays since it differentiates a cyclical bull from a cyclical bear market. The upward-sloping 150 verifies the ongoing bull market this summer, however, note that the 150 is trying to level-off. It will spell major trouble for the stock market if the 150-day MA flattens and rolls over lower. By definition, for this to happen, the SPX price must drop below 4272 and print many days below to pull this critical moving average lower. The initial step, which would be very bearish, is for the 150-day MA support at 4272 to fail.

The H&S head is 46 hundo and neckline is at 4340 so the difference is 260. Taking 260 from 4340 sets a downside target at 4080 where there is strong price support.

The price levels at 4370-4400, the 4340 neckline, and the 150-day MA at 4272 tell you the path forward for the stock market. If price recovers back above the 4340 neckline, the 4370-4400 gap fill is on tap. If 4400 is taken out to the upside, the bulls will be throwing confetti for end of year fun.

Conversely, if price remains soggy, and falls through the 150-day MA at 4272, the 200-day MA at 4199 is on tap next, and the H&S downside target at 4080 will be on the table creating blood and carnage on Wall and Broad. This week we shall see if a Shakedown is on tap, as Ondara sings. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 10/2/23, Monday Morning, at 3:50 AM EST: The corrupt US Congress agrees to avert a government shutdown on the weekend by kicking the can down the road for 45 more days. The sickening drama will continue through Halloween into just before Thanksgiving when another government shutdown deadline will occur. S&P futures rally +28 points on the happy talk.

Note Added 10/3/23, Tuesday Morning, at 5:05 AM EST: The 150-day MA is at 4274 with price at 4288. Bulls win above 4274. Bears win below 4274.