SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross; SPX 4358 Line in Sand

The SPX 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart dictates whether stocks are in a short-term (ST) bull or bear market. The bulls are trying to pull the SPX above the 200 EMA at 4358 this week but whoopsies daisies, they lose their grip yesterday so price remains in the ST bear market pattern.

Bulls need the SPX above 4358 which will ignite several days of upside partying for those holding stocks long. Bears need the SPX to drop from here and prove that the back test of the 200 EMA at 4358 was successful and price will now collapse going forward targeting the prior low at 4225-ish to start. Choose your poison. She was Poison in the Well, and I drank it. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 10/14/23: The SPX pops at the opening bell yesterday jumping above 4358 so the bulls were walking around with chests puffed. Before 11 AM EST, however, stocks fell apart and the SPX loses 4358 falling to 4311 and closing at 4328. The ST bear market remains in play. The battle continues on Monday. The 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart bull/bear line in the sand is at 4327-4328. Check the 200 EMA once trading begins on Monday since it may adjust slightly one way or the other. Stocks are soggy into the peak of the new moon for the month occurring now (which is typical). Also, traders trimmed longs concerned about news and events that may occur over the weekend.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 10/17/23, at 4:31 AM EST: The SPX pops at the opening bell yesterday flying to the HOD at 4383.33 at 11 AM EST then traveling flat the remainder of the day to end the session at 4374 that is above the 200 EMA at 4358. Thus, the bulls are 16 points above the critical short-term bull/bear line in the sand. Another back kiss and bounce or die decision at 4358 is likely going forward.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 10/19/23, at 7:04 AM EST: The bears come to play this week punching the bulls in the nose and taking their lunch money. The SPX collapses to 4315 (another 100 points lower to 4214 will likely create a historic US stock market crash) so the short-term bear market remains in play. Pope Powell brings the tablets down from On High today and will tell global traders how to trade. He is speaking at the Economic Club of New York. Stocks, bonds and currencies will move on Powell's words at noon time as economist elbow each other at the free buffet shoving rubber chicken and lasagna into their greedy pie-holes. A back kiss back up to 4327-4328 is on the table where the bears would make the bounce or die decision. If Powell lays an egg at munch time today, the short-term bear market will worsen and a likely test of the do or die level at 4214 would be on the table going forward. It would be historic (a crash will occur thereafter) if SPX 4214 fails (a 200 to 800-point drop and more would be on the table below 4214).

Note Added Saturday, 10/21/23: The bears take the SPX down through the 10-mth MA early warning system at 4257 and next target the critical 12-mth MA bull/bear long-term line in the sand at 4207. The SPX begins next week from the 4224 palindrome that is also the LOD Friday. Price prints a low at 4216 two weeks prior and 4238 three weeks ago. A back kiss of the 4257 is on the table. Bulls win above 4238-4257. Bears win below 4207-4224. If the SPX fails through 4207, it is lights-out for the US stock market and a major crash is likely going forward. Is it The Final Countdown? 

Note Added 10/27/23: SPX is spanked down from the 200 EMA at 4358 to 4103 an important low.

Note Added 11/2/23: The SPX comes up to pierce the 200 EMA at 4275 and pops up through so it is off to the races for the bulls. It is not the final countdown, yet.

Note Added 12/20/23: The SPX prints 4778 ready to print a new all-time high but alas, it stumbles. The US stock indexes reverse intraday by -1% and more. The SPX drops to 4698. The 200 EMA is at 4583 rising sharply setting up a potential new meeting point at 4640-4650.