SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart with 12-Mth MA Cross; Price Failures at 10-Mth MA at 4218 (Now 4257) and 12-Mth MA at 4177 (Now 4207) Would Signal Cyclical Bear Market

The top two key indicators that dictate a cyclical bull versus a cyclical bear market are the NYA 40-week MA cross and SPX 12-month MA cross. When both are in agreement, the stock market direction is cast in stone.

Right now, they are not in sync. The NYA chart was previously posted showing the failure at the 40-week MA calling for a cyclical bear market ahead. Stocks are in a transition zone since the SPX 12-mth MA negative cross has not yet occurred. Thus, we are in no man's land. The Man Who Sold the World.

The stock market is on shaky ground as traders, analysts, pundits and commentators fight over who has the larger upside SPX target for year-end. The utilities are in a weekly downtrend and below the 50-wk MA for many weeks placing the broad stock market in a crash profile a harbinger for very bad things to happen. Alas, traders continue tripping over each other to buy dips afraid of missing the bottom ahead of what everyone and his brother expects to be a big upside finish for equities. The boat is fully loaded on the bull side everyone ready to ring the SPX 5K bell when the new year hits. Instead, they will probably all be drowning their sorrows in a mug of beer.

Something important happened last week but no one noticed because no one knows what to watch. As explained above, the SPX 12-month MA cross at 4177 is a bigtime cyclical market indicator perhaps the most important market signal that exists.

The 12-mth has a little brother; the 10-month MA at 4218, that provides early signals for potential cyclical market moves. The SPX fell to 4238 (long lower shadow tail on the candlestick) only 20 points from the early warning system. Think of the 10-mth MA like a yellow traffic light when you are driving your car. It tells you to be cautious and slow down and you may have to stop. The 12-mth MA is the red light where all hope is lost; the car stops and begins drifting backwards.

The critical 12-month MA is at 4177 and perhaps the most important number in the stock market right now. If SPX 4177 fails, it is very likely that the stock market is going to crash. October is the crash month so that timing would be dead-on. The 12-mth is 41 points below the 10-mth. So stock market carnage is on tap if the SPX loses only 70 points from the Friday close, and then if another 41 points is lost, 111 points in all, the stock market will likely crash and anyone long will not only lose their shirts, but also pants, underwear and fancy socks.

Stocks are typically buoyant moving through the full moon peak on Friday/Saturday creating a lot of give and take on Friday. New money comes into the stock market to begin a month especially to begin a new quarter so this is another happy wind at the bull's back.

If you want to eliminate all the noise and boil the market down to an easy call, wait for the NYA 40-wk MA cross and SPX 12-mth MA cross signals to agree. If the SPX fails at 4177, there is blood and carnage on tap with traders running for their lives. If the NYA rallies and moves back above its 40-wk MA, the bulls are back in biz and the analysts and pundits on Wall Street will breathe a sigh of relief as the year-end rally is back on the table. Choose your poison. Poison Heart. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 10/2/23, Monday Morning, at 3:45 AM EST: The corrupt US Congress agrees to avert a government shutdown on the weekend by kicking the can down the road for 45 more days. The sickening drama will continue through Halloween into just before Thanksgiving when another government shutdown deadline will occur. S&P futures rally +28 points on the happy talk. A new monthly candlestick for October begins today.

Note Added 10/3/23, Tuesday Morning, at 4:49 AM EST: It is the new month of October so the monthly chart begins a new candlestick and the 10 and 12-mth MA's adjust. Wow. The stock market was stabbed in the eye yesterday. The 10-month MA is at 4262 and the critical 12-mth MA, for all the marbles, is at 4212. The SPX drops yesterday to 4260 taking an initial stab at the 10-mth MA support at 4262 to loosen it up. The early warning system for a potential cyclical bear market ahead is sounding. Price ends the Monday session at 4288 only 26 points above the 10-mth and only 76 points above Armageddon (12-mth). It's fun. The bulls better get their act together fast or they will get their heads chopped off. It's a Wild, Wild Life.

Note Added 10/4/23, Wednesday Morning, at 7:10 AM EST: The US stock market pukes yesterday with the SPX printing a LOD at and 4216 ending the session at 4229. The 10-month MA support at 4257 failed and now becomes overhead resistance. The critical 12-mth MA at 4207, that dictates a cyclical bull versus cyclical bear market ahead, is only 22 points away and price came within 9 points of this Armageddon. The bulls better do something fast otherwise, they are going to fall into a meat grinder.

Note Added 10/6/23, Friday Morning, at 7:56 AM EST: The SPX is at 4258.19 this Friday morning only a half hour away from the US Monthly Jobs Report. The 10-mth MA is 4259.86 and 12-mth MA 4209.85 (4207-4210). Do you think the 10-mth MA is important? That is where price sits. The ole time trader's put a lot of weight into the 10-mth MA so the pivot from 4258-4260, perhaps after the jobs report drama, will tell you who wins going forward.