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Saturday, October 7, 2023

The Keystone Speculator's Unemployment Rate Chart; LABOR RECESSION BEGINS 9/8/23


The US Monthly Jobs Report was a blowout 336K jobs so everyone and his bro proclaim that a recession is nowhere in sight. The recession takes up permanent residence with Godot. As usual, Keystone brings the wet blanket to the party. A recession is taken completely off the table by the Wall Street smart cats but the labor, or jobs, recession actually started 9/8/23 a month ago. The US remains in a housing recession and manufacturing recession.

The last real US recession was 2008-2009 (excluding the COVID-19 pandemic turmoil) so any of you wet behind the ears young folks in your low 30's and younger are completely clueless about recessions. You will learn fast. First of all, those plans you made on the kitchen table, projecting where your savings will be in a few years and other fun stuff like a home, crumple them up and throw them in the garbage.

Your life is going to be nothing like you think it is on paper right now. In fact, your boss is going to call you in the office this month and tell you to pack your bags and get out drop-kicking you into the dumpster on the far side of the parking lot. You will walk the green mile back to your cubicle, pack up the family pictures, the coins in the top desk drawer for the coffee machine, and house plant that needs watered, taking one last look at the place you spent so much time. 

As a final blow making it real that you no longer have a job, your manager asks for your security door card and when you leave the door clicks behind you and you no longer have access. You wonder how you will tell your significant other, or the kids, and what will the neighbors think. People will think you are lazy if you lose your job. Lots of wild crazy thoughts will run through your head as it starts to feel like your life is spinning out of control. You think getting another job would be easy but there are a couple dozen other people wanting the same job and your contacts do not return your calls. Your boss told you the place could not survive without you and now you realize that was smoke being blown up your butt.

Good luck young folks. You are in for a treat over the next couple years. You will learn valuable life lessons. Here is an article Keystone wrote about recessions just before the pandemic that went viral and remains applicable. If a young person you are about to learn a lot about the game of life going forward.

Anyhoo, the labor recession ended in early 2011 and the good times were in place until the pandemic in early 2020. What a run. This is the period that many young folks are programmed to think the groovy times will last forever, like Itchykoo Park. They will not. The jobs report on 2/1/19 threatened a labor recession but this was snuffed-out quickly and the good times continued until the China Virus hit in 2020.

The blue line shows the massive spike in unemployment due to covid up to 15%. One in seven Americans lost their jobs in the time it takes you to blink. Alas, America's crony capitalism system saves the day with the Fed printing money like madmen (monetary stimulus) already ongoing since March 2009, and the Congress kicks in the money machine with obscene fiscal stimulus which in part, creates the Biden inflation.

All that money should never have been given to Americans during the pandemic. If you did not have savings, too bad. You would have learned a valuable life lesson. Instead, everyone now knows to be a bum, complain, moan, be an adult baby, a cry baby, and ask to suck the government teat each day. All of you realize that capitalism does not exist, right? You are an idiot if you think otherwise. You are watching the end game of America's unfixable corrupt crony capitalism system. It is fascinating. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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