By K E Stone (Keystone)
America continues tiptoeing through the coronavirus
(COVID-19) fourth wave mine field. The vaccine dose rate is 3.2 million shots
per day logging a huge 4.6 million shot day last Saturday. The single-dose
J&J vaccine is experiencing production problems delaying shipments while
also receiving the ‘scarlet letter B’ for’ blood clots’. The Pfizer/BioNTech
and Moderna vaccines are performing the heavy-lifting in America accounting for
95% of the vaccines administered.
The vaccines versus variants race continues and the edge has
to be given to the variants with the United States in wave four of the
pandemic. Michigan is a mess and the outbreak, mainly consisting of the UK’s
B117 variant, is spreading to neighboring states such as Pennsylvania, Ohio,
Indiana, Illinois and Wisconsin. Also impacted by Michigan’s outbreak is our
Canadian cousins up north with Ontario a virus mess with hospitals overrun.
There are major outbreaks in Europe, the Middle East,
Southeast Asia, and South and North Americas. It’s ugly and depressing. We have
seen this movie before. It is pandemic ‘Groundhog Day’ over and over.
Since the vaccine versus variant race is all that matters
currently, let’s look at the charts and data to find out which countries and US
states are doing a good job at handling the China Flu and which are failing
miserably. Cough. India. Ahem. Michigan. Cough. Turkey. Cough (clearing throat)
Washington state.
First, a quick global picture is shown by the double chart
above. Global daily new cases are at levels rivaling the peak of the pandemic
as the year began. The 7-day MA trend line has gone parabolic (straight
vertical). Global daily deaths are rising as well, with the 7-day MA trend line
going parabolic, but the deaths are not yet in the neighborhood of the peak.
That is good news. The slope of the trend line verifies how the elderly and
folks with health problems were cut down early on in the pandemic. That is a
lot less social security checks and assistance that governments will have to
pay out.
The US daily new cases chart above shows the 3-day MA and
7-day MA trend lines sloping higher verifying the ongoing wave four. The 3-day
MA keeps printing higher highs and higher lows confirming the trend higher.
Fortunately, the last three days of cases are below the 7-day MA at 70K. Use
the 70K case level as a guidepost for the next 4 days of data.
The peak daily cases day for the current wave four is 4/9/21
so adding 28 days as per the Keystone Model (explained below) targets the first
week in May as when the US active cases curve (shown above) will flatten and
roll over.
Staying on the US daily new cases chart, the darker blue
arrows show how each wave took off exponentially. A glimmer of hope exists with
the current wave four that it may flatten and slump back over to the downside. The
dark blue line has not yet taken off exponentially probably due to the vaccine
distribution program. Everyone involved in the vaccine sites and distribution
of the shots receive a golf clap of appreciation. The jury is out, however. If
the daily new cases are going to start going parabolic it will be showing up
this week in the charts.
The peak in US daily new cases is 85,586 cases on 4/9/21.
Taking away 8% as per the Keystone Model explained below is 78,739 cases. Thus,
the daily new cases must remain below 79K this week to make sure that America
can flatten the active cases curve (after a small bump up occurs over the next
3 weeks) as May begins. Hopefully, since we know a lot more about treating
covid after 14 months, the US active cases curve may flatten and roll over
lower by the end of this month which would be joyous.
The bump higher in daily cases is due to the St Patty’s Day
holiday, pandemic fatigue, spring break parties and schools and businesses reopening.
Easter was last Sunday with people out frolicking the whole weekend long and
any impact from this holiday would be seen in the daily numbers this week. The
authorities have put the kibosh on spring break parties by declaring curfews
and much of the public is realizing they can have some fun but keep wearing
masks, and socially distance, and avoid indoor gatherings.
In summary, watch the US daily new cases this week, the next
4 days, and the highest number would be expected on Friday (released early
Saturday morning). Daily new cases must remain below the 7-day MA trend line at
70K because this will pull the line lower and start it sloping lower which is
good. Cases above 70K will maintain the upward slope of the trend lines and the
fourth wave. In addition, watch the 79K level. If cases are above 79K, say an
80-handle or higher, America is screwed and the active cases curve will not
flatten and roll over until mid-May. Keep your fingers, and toes, crossed.
The US active cases chart is shown above. This is the
“flatten the curve” chart. The active cases chart is the ‘bell-curve’ chart
where the data will form a bell shape to verify that the pandemic is on its way
to distinction. Healthcare workers see maximum caseloads into the flattening of
the active cases curve and then conditions improve once the curve drops sharply
on the right-hand side to form the bell shape.
The US was going along great. We peaked on the active cases
curve on 1/31/21, the last week of January and first week of February, and that
is when the healthcare workers finally noticed conditions improving. Vaccine
distribution was ramping-up strongly. Former President Trump deserves credit
for providing billions of dollars to the biopharmaceutical companies so they
could develop vaccines with a blank check and President Biden deserves credit
for organizing an effective vaccine distribution and logistics campaign.
However, as mentioned above, the jury is out. Uncle Sam is taking
a smoke break wondering what is the path ahead? The daily new cases are in the
uptrend for the last 4 weeks, and the US active cases curve did curl higher as
is explained in the prior Article 38 updates, but now stumbles dead-flat
sideways. This week’s data will have to play out but something is starting to
look a bit fishy. With daily new cases on a steady path higher, and the active
cases curve curling higher, there is no mathematical reason for the active
cases curve to again choose a sideways posture. Something is skewed in the
numbers that will likely shake out this week (assuming it is nothing nefarious
or an error in the data collection).
The blue path is our desired outcome with the vaccines doing
their job and clear skies and rainbows ahead. The red path is the bad outcome
with the variants winning the race. The dark blue line shows the current
expected path which is for the active cases curve to bump higher and then
flatten out and roll over late this month or the first week of May. This
scenario means misery ahead for the next 2 to 3 weeks for the US but hope
springs eternal and perhaps the vaccines are making a big difference, plus the
renewed push by talking heads telling people to remain cautious, and just maybe
we can roll the active cases curve over lower faster. The daily new cases
number for this Friday, 4/16/21, is extremely important.
The vaccine hesitancy and vaccine passports issues are becoming
a major focus. Medical folks are concerned that not enough people are willing
to get the shot. If not, the whole program would be for naught. New variants would
create a mess if herd immunity is not achieved by the end of summer. There are
likely several twists and turns ahead for the pandemic that is probably not
finished with us humans just yet.
The US daily new deaths chart is shown above and provides
positivity. The 7-day MA trend line is sloping downwards which is great and
hopefully we end up at zero as soon as possible. The brown arrows show the
drastic loss of life one year ago at the start of the first wave of the
pandemic. The senior citizens were wiped out as shown by the straight vertical
brown arrow last March and April.
As the waves play out, the pace of deaths slows (since many
of the old, frail and obese have already died). Thankfully, deaths continue
lower as the fourth wave proceeds. However, wet blanket time. The deaths lag
the daily and active cases charts so a few weeks will have to pass to note the
impact. Daily cases rise first, then hospitalizations (now occurring), then
people die.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) tracks
the mortality figures and reports 561K dead Americans. The IHME projects 619K
deaths by 8/1/21. The worst cases scenario is 700K deaths by 8/1/21.
The CDC hospitalizations and new hospital admissions were in
an uptrend as assessed by the 7-day MA, however, the last couple days are lower
data trying to curl the lines downward (a good thing). If the hospitalizations
begin falling off again, wave four, may be no more, than the mouse that roared.
The hospitalization data is a positive development but a couple days does not
make a trend. The daily new cases and hospitalizations will tell the pandemic
story this week.
The Michigan daily new cases chart is shown above printing
one of the 4 record highs of the pandemic. The Washington state daily new cases
chart is also shown which is now experiencing a ramp-up in the fourth wave.
Ditto Oregon. These states are discussed below after the state list and require
close monitoring by medical folks.
On the global scale, the India daily new cases chart is
shown above. There are no words for that chart with a parabolic rise in cases
that is not over. The Iran daily new cases chart is also shown above displaying
the serious outbreak occurring in the Middle East right now.
Let’s discuss the ongoing variant versus vaccine race. One
side is winning but you look away for an instant and the other side is winning.
The US is at an inflection point right now with the pandemic.
There are several variant boogie-men hiding in the closet
and under the bed causing Uncle Sam many restless nights. The pandemic started
in Wuhan, China, after the CCP released the virus, either intentionally or by
accident, upon the planet. The base virus, as a complete layperson would
describe it, is D614G. The first mutation appeared in Denmark dubbed ‘Cluster
5’ and required the culling of millions of minks.
The UK B117 variant devastated England but now they are in
great shape. B117 is attacking Michigan, USA, currently and the strain is
spreading to neighboring states. America does not want to go down the UK’s path
but the virus typically decides what it wants to do. The South Africa B1351
variant is a more deadly strain and Pfizer’s vaccine is shown to be slightly
less effective in an initial drug trial.
Brazil’s P1 is a deadly mutant with people dropping like
flies. The massive amounts of bodies requiring burial is heartbreaking. The
variant spreads to neighboring nations of Paraguay, Bolivia and others. In the
US, the New York B1526 remains a worry as does the California B1427/B1429
variant.
As if this mutant, variant and strain talk is not enough, as
epidemiologists cringe at the loose use of their nomenclature, a double mutant
E484Q/L452R in India is wreaking havoc. Most of the variants are double
mutations so medical folks scratch their heads over why the India strain is
labeled in this manner. It is actually quite easy to understand. Declaring
something as a “double mutant” sells newspapers and creates clicks on media
websites which rewards the players with increased advertising revenue. Fear,
sensationalism, scandal and sex attract a lot of eyeballs. This is the essence of the crony
capitalism system.
The variant bag is full of ugly things and no one wants to
dip their hand into that sticky mess. The vaccine program provides hope that
herd immunity, or at least a sufficient level of protection, can be achieved
before the variants create rampant infections.
As highlighted in the CDC vaccine map appearing in The NewYork Times, 22% of Americans are fully vaccinated. 36% are given at least 1
shot. Thus, 1 in 5 are fully vaccinated and 1 in 3 are partially vaccinated.
That is a proud accomplishment sitting here in early April. Once the
fully-vaccinated percentage hits 23% we can round up to 25% and call it 1 in 4
Americans.
Keystone has not taken the vaccine shots as yet. He is
waiting for Nurse Goodbody to answer his question but she hastily ran away. Keystone
wants to know if he can receive one shot in his left buttock cheek and then the
second shot in his right cheek. At least the lady nurses are giggling when they
walk, er, run, away.
New Hampshire is doing the best job with vaccine
distribution with 52%, over one-half of their population, receiving at least 1
shot and 15% fully-vaccinated. The state is less populated than others. New
Hampshire should be given credit because their ‘doses used percentage’ is nearly
100%. Maybe they can tell the other 49 states their logistics strategy.
238 million vaccine doses have been delivered to the US and
its territories and 190 million are shot in arms for an 80% doses used rate.
That is okay but there is room for more improvement. Biden promises 200 million
shots in arms within his first 100 days which ends on 4/30/21, or May 1st if
you will, when the assessment will occur. Trump is credited with 20 million
doses in arms up to the day he left on 1/20/21 which is Biden’s first day.
Thus, Sleepy Joey has amassed 170 million shots in arms (190-20).
Biden needs another 30 million shots (200-170) in the next
17 days or 1.8 million doses per day. Biden knows how to set the bar low so he
can easily step over in his black socks and bunny slippers. The current vaccine
rate is 3.2 million doses per day so in 17 days that is 54 million doses
(3.2x17). The projected total on Biden’s 100th day is 244 million shots in arms
which 20 million is Donnie’s, so the president will achieve 224 million shots
in arms after the first 100 days in office way above his 200 million goal. He,
like all politicians, will proclaim his glory to the huddled masses.
As per the easy math in prior articles, 240 million
Americans need vaccinated to reach herd immunity. This number accounts for some
folks not showing up for second doses and other factors such as people with
natural antibodies. One saving grace for the US may be that more Americans have
been sick with the China Flu than anyone realizes. They will have natural
antibodies to fight future infections and count towards herd immunity.
A couple of doctors had also come up with the 240 to 250
million range by independent calculations and approaches so there is comfort
and confidence in using the 240 million number as the herd immunity goal. Let’s
get mathy. There are 330 million people in the US. 22% are fully vaccinated so
that is 73 million people (330x0.22). 36% are given at least 1 shot which is
119 million people. Taking away the 73 million that are fully-vaccinated as
part of that group, leaves 46 million with 1 shot only (ignoring the J&J
vaccine). Halving this number provides an estimate for the number of people
that would have 2 shots if the vaccine was limited which would be 23 million
people. Thus, estimating-only, 96 million Americans are vaccinated (73+23).
240 million (the goal) minus 96 is 144 million. The question
is how many Americans have contracted covid and have natural immunities? The asymptomatic
nature of the disease makes this a difficult question to answer. Some
scientists and doctors think far more people have been sick with coronavirus
than anyone realizes. If so, herd immunity will come far easier.
If about 15% of the US population has natural antibodies, 50
million Americans, taking that away from the 144 million is 94 million. The US
vaccination rate is 3.2 million doses per day.
Thus, if the US needs another 94 million people vaccinated
to reach herd immunity, that is roughly 188 million vaccine doses since
Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna are 2-shot vaccines. The J&J 1-dose vaccine is
in the mix but they are experiencing production issues so let’s call it 190
million vaccine doses needed to reach herd immunity. At 3.2 million doses per
day, that is 59 days (190/3.2), call it 2 months so that would be mid-June and
great timing.
This is good news but the vaccine hesitancy issue will be
raising its head going forward. The country will likely become more split and
angrier as the people vaccinated apply more unwanted pressure on those that do
not plan to roll up their sleeves. The medical community should simply accept
the situation instead of fighting it. Make plans for more hospital space and
staffing to handle those that do not take the shot but become sick. As Bruce
Lee said, “Be water my friend.” Accept people for the way they are, otherwise
you will be disappointed.
Some folks trust in God or a spirit and figure what happens,
happens. If you get sick and die, that is your destiny. Others find it
difficult to understand such a philosophy but perhaps they will someday, at the
very end. The vaccine hesitancy and vaccine passports issues will become heated
going forward.
Rejiggering the calculations, what if more people have been
sick with COVID-19 than realized? Let’s say 30% of the US population has
natural antibodies, 100 million Americans, taking that away from the 144
million is 44 million. Doubling that for doses is 88 million doses, call it 90
million doses needed. At 3.2 million doses per day rate, that is 28 days (90/3.2),
call it 1 month so mid-May we would reach herd immunity.
The headache approaching will be the big vaccine supply
availability but the demand drops. It gets harder from here. People willing to
be vaccinated but cannot, or will not, leave their homes will have to be taken
care of on an individual basis. It takes time. The poor rural areas and
inner-city areas require logistics solutions that will take extra time. And do
not forget the anti-vaxxer crowd, maybe 15% or 20% of America (40 to 70 million
people) that do not plan to be vaccinated.
Keystone is passing on the vaccine since he has never had a
flu shot, never taken an antibiotic his entire life and lives in the beautiful
and spacious Laurel Highlands of southwestern Pennsylvania. Everyone makes
their own decisions. The doctors are rolling up their sleeves and taking the
vaccines so they are eating their own cooking which should boost the confidence
of anyone planning to be inoculated.
Dit…dit…dit…dit…this is coming across the wires as this
article is written. THE CDC AND FDA RECOMMEND THAT THE J&J VACCINE BE
HALTED. They are reviewing six blood clot cases. This is huge news. US stock
futures fall -0.5% on the announcement. The morning takes a negative tone. What
will all the people think that have already received the J&J vaccine? What impact will the news have on vaccine hesitant folks?
The officials say the move to halt the vaccine is out of an “abundance of caution” and the medical folks praise the regulators for doing their job. Six cases out of 7 million shots are not a lot of reactions; in fact, it is 1 in a million. The AstraZeneca vaccine blood clot issue is occurring in about 1 in 100,000 people or 1 in 200,000. A few more adverse cases are expected with the J&J vaccine. Obviously, the blood clot cases are rare but if you are that one family you are devastated for life.
The CDC and FDA are criticized for stopping the J&J vaccinations since the occurrence of clots is rare. The doctors make the point that the halt serves as a general announcement for all medical people, especially emergency room and other medical personnel, that treat blood clots. Typically, the clotting patient would be shot with heparin to stabilize the situation but the clots identified in the vaccine patients are rare and heparin may actually harm the patient. 1 of the 6 women dies and another is in critical condition (perhaps because of this sad treatment situation?). The halt allows time for all doctors to become educated on how to treat a patient that has blood clots and has received the J&J vaccine.
A press conference concerning the J&J vaccine takes
place this morning. The half dozen cases are all women from 18 to 48 years old and birth control issues
do not appear to be involved. The blood clots appear in 6 to 13 days so anyone
that received the J&J vaccine within the last 2 weeks needs to be mindful
of any headaches, leg pain, confusion or loss of breath and to see a doctor immediately
if they occur. If you had the shot a month ago, the risk of the J&J shot is nil. Fauci comments on the matter proclaiming that the stoppage on the J&J vaccine "should only be days or weeks not weeks or months."
The FDA clarifies that it is only recommending a pause for the J&J vaccine and
not ordering a stop. These are the types of statements that confuse people. You
put your left foot in, you put your left foot out, you put your right hand in
and shake it all about, you do the Hokey Pokey and turn yourself around, that’s
what covid is all about. Maybe it is only recommended on Tuesday’s and
Thursday’s but not Friday’s. As stocks begin trading, JNJ tumbles -2% while
MRNA (Moderna) rallies +7%. PFE (Pfizer) is up marginally. Moderna is the
favorite and announces that a drug trial shows the vaccine 90% effective after
6 months, matching the prior Pfizer results.
Anyone experiencing side effects from vaccinations can report the incident to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS). The information is useful in shining a light on any potential problems quickly and in assessing and fine-tuning vaccines. A few conspiratorial web sites have misused some VAERS information saying over 3K people have died from the coronavirus vaccines but this is not true. 3K have died but there is not yet a firm link between the vaccines and deaths. The platform is not particularly user friendly so folks are pulling out numbers here an there that fit certain narratives. Keep all this confusion in mind when studying information. Keystone will keep you on the right path.
The coronavirus may choose to go away when it feels like
going away and not one minute sooner. Past viruses have flittered away on their
own after about 18 months which would be the May-July time frame. Despite all
our human endeavors, covid may go away one day without notice.
The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases
in the world at 32 million. India has 13.69 million cases overtaking Brazil at
13.52 million cases. France has 5.1 million cases printing a 5-handle. Russia
reports 4.7 million cases, UK (4.4), Turkey (3.9), Italy (3.8), Spain (3.4), Germany (3.0), Poland
(2.60), Colombia (2.55), Argentina (2.55), Mexico (2.3), Iran (2.1), Ukraine
(1.9), Peru (1.7), Czechia (1.59), Indonesia (1.58), South Africa (1.56), Netherlands
(1.4), Chile (1.08), Canada (1.07), Romania (1.0), Iraq (941K), Belgium (927K),
Philippines (885K), Sweden (876K), Israel (836K), Portugal (828K), Pakistan (730K),
Hungary (728K), Bangladesh (700K), Jordan (669K), Serbia (645K), Switzerland (625K),
Austria (581K), Japan (506K) and Morocco (502K) rounding out the list of 39
nations above 500K cases.
The list was 37 only 10 days ago. Japan and Morocco are
added and Lebanon and UAE are on deck which will get the list over the 40 level.
The China Flu sickens over a half-million people in about 40 countries on
earth. The world is trending in a bad direction.
Turkey’s situation worsens as it leapfrogs Italy. Germany
sadly joins the 3 million total cases camp. Poland leapfrogs Columbia. Iran now
exceeds 2 million cases. Canada sadly crosses the 1 million total cases club.
What are you Canucks doing under those blankets? Canada will likely overtake
Chile in total cases over the coming days. Romania joins the 1 million club a
dubious organization where no one wants to be a member.
Iraq overtakes Belgium as both nations make their way
towards 1 million total COVID-19 cases. Holy smokes. The Philippines jumps
three places with cases increasing by 100K over the last 10 days. That is huge.
Cases are averaging over 10K pr day yesterday was 11.3K daily new cases. Sweden
worsens by two places. Pakistan cases jump by 50K. Bangladesh jumps by 75K
cases over the last 10 days! Big numbers.
Coronavirus has infected 137.4 million people worldwide.2.96
million have died. Fortunately, 110.5 million global citizens have recovered
from the China Flu. 80% (110.5/137.4) of the people that become infected with COVID-19
recover in a reasonable time frame. Sadly, this percentage is stagnant for the
last 3 weeks after a few weeks of improvement.
This means that 1 in 5 people contracting covid around the
world will have lingering health issues requiring advice and treatment from
doctors and physician’s assistants. And some of them will die. China screwed
the world. They will have to answer for their nefarious deed.
Worldwide, 2.2% (2.96/137.4) of the people that are infected
with covid die. This number is unfortunately sticky (remaining steady at this
level) article after article. 1 in every 46 people that are infected with
COVID-19 around the world, will die, and this number has not changed over the
last couple months. Isn’t that something? This is as good as it gets. Generally
speaking, around the world, the mortality rate from covid is at an impasse and
cannot be driven lower.
1.8% (137.4/7670) of the world’s population of 7.67 billion
people have been infected with coronavirus; 1 in every 56 people on earth. This
number was flat at 1.6% for many weeks but ticked higher to 1.7% a couple weeks
ago and now ticks higher to 1.8%. People are getting sick with covid at a
faster rate now than a month ago. Sadly, the variants are the reason for the
uptick in the global infection rate. The picture would be far more disastrous
without the vaccines.
In the United States, 32 million people are infected with
covid. 576,361 Americans are dead. 24.6 million Americans have recovered from
covid. This equates to 77% (24.6/32) of US citizens recovering after becoming
infected with COVID-19. The number improves by 2% over the last 3 weeks. In
other words, 3 out of every 4 Americans that contract the Wuhan Flu recover. Young
people are becoming more infected these days but must be bouncing back quicker.
Rounding up to 80%, 4 out of every 5 Americans that become sick with covid will
recover without lingering effects.
In the US, 1.8% (576/32000) of the people infected with COVID-19
die and this number remains sticky like the global death number. Interestingly,
the recovery rates were improving in the US and around the world but may be
stalling right now and the mortality rates are not improving at all. The death
rates sustain themselves day after day week after week.
The 1.8% equates to 1 in every 56 US citizens that are
infected with coronavirus will die. The doctors say the key to the vaccines is
stopping deaths but the statistics clearly show that this is not working as
yet. Interestingly, the 1.8% death rate is stone-cold steady for months in
America, where the vaccine program is hitting its stride, and has climbed to
1.8% globally over the last month, where the vaccine programs are lagging.
Unfortunately, Latin America and Africa put too much stock
in the non-mRNA vaccines that are producing the rare blood clot problems. The
point is that the vaccines have maintained a stable death rate in America but
have not improved, while the slow rollout of vaccines worldwide has led to the
death rates increasing globally. The vaccines make a difference. Vaccines are
working to stabilize the pandemic but are not yet effective in reducing the
rate of deaths. The mRNA vaccines are a 6-week process by the time the true
benefits are realized so that has to be kept in mind.
9.7% (32/330) of the American population of 330 million
people have been infected with covid. This percentage jumps higher by 0.3% over
the last 10 days. 1 in every 10 Americans have been stricken with coronavirus a
terrible number and stunning statistic. The minority communities are impacted disproportionately
since they tend to live in higher-populated areas.
Thus, the row house area of an inner city or the projects
(groups of multi-story housing units cramped together) may be realizing about 1
in 5 people they know becoming sick while the white upper-class neighborhoods
and McMansion areas may only be realizing about 1 in 20 or 1 in 30 becoming
sick. Many white folks ask what all the fuss is about since they tend to not
hear about many people they know ever getting sick with covid. On the other hand,
in the populated town a few miles away, Guido just tested positive for COVID-19
and Latisha said Carmella over on 10th just got the covid.
People need to learn and display empathy and compassion for
one another again but the current more narcissistic-style societal behavior is
actually what is expected at the end of a multi-decade period a la the
Kondratiev wave cycle.
The United States has 24% (32/132) of the COVID-19 cases in
the world. 1 in 4 people that become infected with covid on planet earth are
Americans. The US accounts for 19.5% (576/2960) of the China Flu deaths in the
world. 1 in 5 people that die from COVID-19 in the world are Americans. China
knows how to kill us off efficiently. 10 days ago, the number was 20.0% so it
is going in the right direction, albeit the wrong direction for the rest of the
world.
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model,
the Keystone Model for short, is a simple approach to predicting when the
active cases chart curves will flatten-out and roll-over lower which represents
the maximum stress on the medical system and healthcare workers followed by better
days ahead.
The Keystone Model uses the peak in the new cases to
forecast the peak and flattening of the active cases curve. The ‘flattening of
the curve’ only pertains to the active cases chart. For authoritarian and
communist nations where the populations must do what they are told or they
receive a bullet in their heads, and for smaller nations, and many Asian
nations where citizens follow government rules without questioning authority, the
active cases curve will peak, on average, 11 days after the peak in new cases.
China, Singapore, Japan and South Korea are in this group.
Also New Zealand and Australia since the populations are scattered across the
countryside. Several Middle East nations are under authoritarian rule and the
peaks in the new cases are quickly followed by the peak in the active cases
chart.
For the Western countries, such as the US and European
nations, the so-called free societies, the active cases curve will peak, on
average, 28 days after the peak in new cases (it takes 17 days longer, about 2
weeks longer, for a free society to tamp down a virus wave than a communist or
authoritarian state).
During the last couple months, no doubt as a result of the
medical community becoming better at fighting coronavirus over the last year,
this 28-day period has been reduced by 2 to 4 days. Nothing to get too excited
about but every little bit helps. In the lists below for countries and US
states, any of the projections that target 28 days may occur a tad bit sooner
say 2 or 3 days sooner. The Keystone Model will not change since it should
remain consistent for the pandemic data throughout the entire event. The peak
in the active cases bell curve may occur a day or three in front of the target
date.
The Keystone Model has a great track record over the last
year in predicting when the active cases curve flattens and the bell shape
begins to appear to ring-in the end to the pandemic. Healthcare workers cannot
catch a break until the active cases curve flattens and rolls-over forming the
bell shape. That is when the patient load substantially declines.
The peak in the daily new cases is easily identified by the
bar charts provided by Worldometer and Johns-Hopkins. You see these daily new
cases bar charts on television news channels. The bar charts typically show the
7-day moving average (MA) line which is a smoothing mechanism that helps you
identify the trend of the data.
The Keystone Model considers any subsequent high number of
daily cases occurring after the peak high to be the new peak high day, if it is
within 8% of the peak high on the bar chart. Is that clear as mud? If the daily
new cases are within 8% of the peak high, that day becomes the peak new case
date from which the 11 or 28-day period begins. This is why the daily new case
peak dates in the lists below may be a few days after the peak high that you
see in the bar chart.
For example, the US peak in daily new cases for wave four is
86K on 4/9/21. Taking away 8% is 79K so any daily cases that are above 79K
would be a new peak high for daily new cases. If the daily new cases exceed 79K
for any day forward, it is a sad day, since that means the active cases curve
will not flatten out until mid-May (a new peak in daily cases is identified
from which the 28 days has to be added to find out when the active cases curve
will flatten).
If the US daily new cases remain sub 79K here on out,
conditions will improve again and we can right the ship by the end of the month
or first few days of May.
An update for The Keystone Model is provided since another
10-day period passes and more data and information become available to push the
story forward.
This is Article 39 in the Coronavirus Chronology that provides
real-time information for historians, teachers, students, journalists, economists,
market participants, corporate executives, financial managers, Wall Street, doctors,
nurses, medical personnel, first responders, researchers, public officials,
news organizations, traders, investors and politicians studying the COVID-19
pandemic both domestically (USA) and internationally. This thirty-ninth article
is published on Tuesday, 4/13/21.
The coronavirus series of articles are the only real-time
source of information available continuously chronicling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic
during 2020 and 2021. Readers live and breathe the pandemic, the worst in a century,
as it occurs in real-time, experiencing the daily virus zeitgeist, good or bad,
devoid of political correctness. This is not revisionist history-telling. It is
the raw pandemic truth and human emotion occurring, recorded and chronicled in
real time. Feel the wind in your hair as the pandemic rages forward. Much of it
is not pretty because it is real.
All 39 articles are archived on The Keystone Speculator blog.
The articles will be published as a complete set in the future via Amazon
called the Coronavirus Chronology; it is a pandemic bible. That is, if the
virus ever ends. The COVID-19 pandemic information and raw human emotion is
recorded in real-time which is priceless for those studying the pandemic
months, years and decades from now. The last few articles are linked below if
you want to review the COVID-19 saga over the last month.
The Worldometer web site tracks the coronavirus (COVID-19) around
the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus series of
articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. The
Worldometer data and Johns-Hopkins data track each other well with the
Worldometer data typically ahead of the Johns-Hopkins data by a few days. The
COVID Tracking Project is another excellent source of information and data
available for those wanting to study and understand the virus in more detail
although the project has halted its data collection in real-time and now serves
as an archive.
The worst countries with coronavirus outbreaks are on the
list below. The peaks in daily new cases are shown and the projected peaks in
active cases based on the Keystone Model. The peak and flattening of the active
cases curve represent the maximum stress on healthcare workers. The pandemic is
not under control until the active cases curve flattens and rolls over forming
the bell shape.
The pandemic is smacking the nations at the bottom of the
list the hardest since they are reporting the largest spikes in daily new cases
occurring in real-time. Their active cases charts will take the most time to
roll over.
Countries such as New Zealand, Australia and Singapore are
the best examples on handling the pandemic properly. Japan handily beat back
the third wave but a wave four is in progress now as the Olympics approach this
summer. Ditto South Korea another nation that has handled the virus well but
slips away each time their guard is let down. Japan and South Korea have
excellent testing programs so they should regain control of the fourth waves in
short order.
All of the countries listed below worsened over the last 10
days. The US active cases chart is currently moving flat sideways and will
likely not roll over until the last week of the month or first week of May.
Hospitalizations should rise steadily (despite the encouraging news discussed
above) and the deaths may begin ramping higher as well.
The Easter weekend, mass attendance at the Texas Rangers
baseball games and other events, and Americans frolicking, from 4/3/21 through
4/6/21, will show up in daily new cases this week. Will the daily new cases
jump large in the days ahead kicking off a new period of misery, or, will the
cases whimper away creating positive joy that America can, and will, defeat the
virus and return to normal?
Young people are becoming infected but perhaps their
recovery rates will be faster and mortality rate far lower than last year’s
numbers that mowed down the seniors.
The following nations are listed from bad to worse with
ongoing coronavirus outbreak waves in progress;
Ireland (Third Wave) (data is
suspect probably underreporting daily new cases)
1/8/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever) (spikes on 3/21/21 and 4/1/21)
2/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (curve continues higher; deaths jump higher but cases are
small; there is a data problem)
3/10/21 New Case Peak Date
3/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (curve continues higher since Slovakia likely
suppressing daily new case numbers)
3/10/21 New Case Peak Date
3/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (curve continues flat not yet willing to drop)
3/19/21 New Case Peak Date
4/16/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (may have peaked 3/23/21 and flatlining ever since;
give it a few more days; it is looking good if Italy can hang in there a few
more days)
3/25/21 New Case Peak Date (second
highest new cases ever)
4/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (chart may have peaked 4/3/21 which would be a good
call by the model but give it a few more days; Brazil needs a break and this is
it)
3/26/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of third wave)
4/23/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (deaths at record levels)
3/27/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for third wave)
4/24/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
3/30/21 New Case Peak Date (daily
cases are greatly elevated)
4/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (chart may have peaked on 4/8/21 give it a few more
days)
3/30/21 New Case Peak Date
4/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (chart peaked on 4/1/21 and is flat ever since give it
a few more days)
3/31/21 New Case Peak Date
4/11/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (hart peaked 4/4/21 and is rolling over but give it a
few days; things are looking good)
3/31/21 New Case Peak Date
4/28/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
3/31/21 New Case Peak Date
4/11/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (chart may have peaked 4/2/21 but give it a few days)
4/1/21 New Case Peak Date
4/12/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (chart is moving lower but deaths at record highs)
4/1/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases of third wave)
4/12/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (chart may have peaked 4/2/21 give it a few more days)
4/1/21 New Case Peak Date (second
highest new cases ever)
4/12/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (chart may have peaked but data is very erratic)
4/1/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
4/12/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (chart may have peaked 4/6/21)
4/2/21 New Case Peak Date
4/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (chart continues higher)
4/2/21 New Case Peak Date
4/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
4/2/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 4/1/21 and 4/2/21)
4/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
4/6/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases ever 3/30/21 and 4/6/21)
4/17/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/6/21 New Case Peak Date
5/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
4/7/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases ever 2/4/21 and 4/7/21)
5/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
4/8/21 New Case Peak Date
4/19/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/8/21 New Case Peak Date
5/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
4/9/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever are occurring over last month)
4/20/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/9/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases of third wave)
4/20/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/9/21 New Case Peak Date
4/20/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/9/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
4/20/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/9/21 New Case Peak Date (huge
fifth wave compared to other tiny waves)
4/20/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/9/21 New Case Peak Date
5/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
4/9/21 New Case Peak Date
5/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
4/9/21 New Case Peak Date
5/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
4/10/21 New Case Peak Date
4/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/10/21 New Case Peak Date
4/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/11/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of third wave)
4/22/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/11/21
New Case Peak Date (highest new cases of fifth wave 3/27/21 and 4/11/21)
5/9/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
4/11/21 New Case Peak Date
5/9/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
4/12/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of second wave)
4/23/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/12/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
4/23/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/12/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
4/23/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/12/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever on 4/11/21 and 4/12/21)
4/23/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (chart is parabolic and frightening)
4/12/21 New Case Peak Date
4/23/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/12/21 New Case Peak Date
4/23/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/12/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever occur over last week)
4/23/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/12/21 New Case Peak Date
5/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
4/12/21 New Case Peak Date
5/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
4/12/21 New Case Peak Date
5/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
4/12/21 New Case Peak Date
5/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
4/12/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever are 1/3/21, 4/3/21 and 4/12/21)
5/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
The European outbreak continues for France, Germany, Netherlands although Italy and Poland are improving. Croatia and Georgia are experiencing the start of new waves. Ukraine remains a steady area of coronavirus infections. Russia and the UK are not on the list above. Russia is suspending travel to and from Turkey. The UK is in good shape but the daily new cases pop to 3,567 yesterday. The UK should tread lightly going forward.
Spain is sinking down the covid rabbit hole again which will
depress the nation. Portugal, however, is doing a good job and remaining in
excellent shape. Both nations were hit a couple months ago as the virus spread
across Europe from west to east but this time coronavirus is preferentially
attacking Spain again and not Portugal. Most of Spain, including officials,
probably do not realize another wave is beginning. Quick Spain, get Portugal on
the horn and ask them what they are doing and start doing it.
The major hotspot in the world right now is the Middle East
including Turkey, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Interestingly,
the devastating outbreak in India is moving west through Pakistan and into
Iran. From India to the east is in bad shape including Bangladesh, Burma,
Thailand, Cambodia and now Malaysia. Burma (Myanmar) is under a military coup
and social unrest. Cambodia is in terrible shape. Malaysia is experiencing a
rise in daily cases and may be added to the list above next time.
In Africa, Morocco is likely beginning a new wave and will
be on the bad list above next time. Generally, Africa has improved compared to
a month and two ago. This is surprising since the continent is way behind in
vaccinations. The South Africa variant B1351 moved north to Botswana but they
are getting a handle on things. South Africa has weathered the storm and
announces it is delaying the J&J vaccines following the US lead.
The recent coronavirus outbreaks in Africa were fascinating
since they coordinated to the same areas experiencing African Swine Flu (ASF)
breakouts in the pig populations (Guinea, Mali, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Gabon). The
island nation of Madagascar is experiencing a COVID-19 outbreak currently.
Canada is in bad shape and America is in not doing well as
the wave four sputters along. Mexico is not on the list above but the daily new
cases are spiking higher to one-month highs. Mexico’s active cases curve is
hinting that it wants to move higher (bad). If Mexico sinks, that will put all
of North America in the drink.
Brazil remains a tragedy but its active cases curve is
rolling over to form the bell shape which is a welcome sight. The virus,
however, spreads to the neighboring regions such as Bolivia, Argentina, Chile
and Paraguay. Ecuador is in bad shape but its data is very erratic. Bolivia is
muddling along.
Philippines remains bad as if China poisoned the nation
hoping the disease would migrate north across the ocean to Taiwan. That way,
the CCP could waltz into Taiwan with a soft takeover proclaiming they are there
to help with the pandemic (like they did to destroy Hong Kong). China has
stepped up military action around Taiwan. At the same time, the Ruskies tag
team with the Chinese communists and amass Russian troops on the Ukraine
border. The two dictator dirtbags, Xi and Putin, are testing Sleepy Joey to see
if he is sleeping.
There are hotspots around the globe including central Europe, the Middle East, Southeast Asia
(India/Bangladesh), South America and North America. An area to watch that is
an up and coming hotspot is Thailand, Cambodia and Malaysia.
Next focusing on the US, the troubled states are highlighted
below with their projections on when the active cases curve will peak-out (max
strain on healthcare system) as per the Keystone Model. The US states below have
failed to flatten the active cases bell curve or they had successfully
flattened the curve only to suffer a new wave higher again.
The vaccination program is helping. Folks following masking
and social distancing guidelines are also helping. The warmer weather will also
help defeat the virus. On the bad side, the variants are spreading and if they
follow the lead of other nations, a parabolic rise in US cases is on tap.
The St Patrick’s Day celebrations and initial spring break
parties led to elevated cases but the kibosh was placed on the fun. This week
we find out if there is any surge in daily cases due to the Easter weekend fun
and parties and the carryover into the packed Texas Rangers baseball stadium on
Monday and Tuesday. It would be fantastic if the US daily new cases are held at
bay since it shows that people can congregate in huge crowds outdoors and it is
not a big deal. Conversely, a big surge in daily cases this week will tell
America that it has failed again.
As a side note, the filthy CCP is releasing propaganda on US
internet sites saying that ‘America has failed at handling the pandemic’. The
US does not need the dirtbags that released the virus from the Wuhan bioweapons
laboratory, that started the global pandemic, to be commenting on anything. The
US and world will unite and settle the pandemic score with red China, the CCP,
at the time of our choosing, not theirs.
The following states have active cases curves moving higher
which is a bad thing.
South Carolina (Third Wave) (data
is suspect; probably an underreporting of daily cases)
1/16/21 New Case Peak Date (daily
cases starting to creep higher)
2/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher so daily case numbers likely wrong)
3/18/21 New Case Peak Date (recent
cases becoming elevated)
4/15/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
3/26/21 New Case Peak Date
4/23/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
3/27/21 New Case Peak Date
4/24/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
3/27/21 New Case Peak Date
4/24/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/1/21 New Case Peak Date
4/29/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/1/21
New Case Peak Date (highest cases for the third wave)
4/29/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
4/2/21 New Case Peak Date
4/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/3/21 New Case Peak Date
5/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/5/21 New Case Peak Date
5/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/5/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases for the third wave)
5/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/5/21 New Case Peak Date
5/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/6/21 New Case Peak Date
5/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/6/21 New Case Peak Date
5/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/7/21 New Case Peak Date
5/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/7/21 New Case Peak Date
5/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/8/21 New Case Peak Date
5/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (active cases curve oddly going down so this would be expected to curl
higher; the data case numbers are likely underreported)
4/8/21 New Case Peak Date
5/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/9/21 New Case Peak Date
5/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/9/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases of third wave)
5/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/9/21 New Case Peak Date
5/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date
4/9/21 New Case Peak Date
5/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/9/21 New Case Peak Date
5/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/9/21 New Case Peak Date
5/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/9/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases ever are 11/20/20, 12/4/20, 4/3/21 and 4/9/21)
5/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/9/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases for the fourth wave)
5/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/9/21 New Case Peak Date
5/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (active cases curve oddly going down so this would be expected to curl
higher or at least move sideways; the daily new cases are likely problematic)
4/10/21 New Case Peak Date
5/8/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/10/21 New Case Peak Date
5/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/10/21 New Case Peak Date
5/8/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/12/21 New Case Peak Date
5/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/12/21 New Case Peak Date
5/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/12/21 New Case Peak Date
5/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
There is trouble on the West Coast, on the East Coast and spreading out from Michigan into the Heartland. The 33 states above are in a new wave and the active cases curves are moving higher (sans New York and Florida as noted). Most states will not flatten and roll their active cases curves lower until early May but as mentioned above, perhaps the medical folks can shave a few days off that 28-day time frame since our treatments are better and the vaccinations continue.
Washington state needs special attention. Ditto Oregon.
Isn’t something going on with the ships and backlogs of orders? Container ships
were backed up at ports so there must be insanely busy times at the West Coast
docks. Whatever is coming in is nasty. Washington is the worst state right now
with daily cases popping the most yesterday. Oregon is in the same boat.
Something is going on there.
The CDC should double the amount of DNA testing in
Washington state to get a handle on the outbreak beginning. Washington state
looks like Michigan looked 3 weeks ago. If you live in Washington or Oregon,
hunker down and watch out because a new wave is beginning in your neck of the
woods. The African outbreaks were interesting a month ago since they mainly
started from the docks and in areas where ASF was occurring with the pig herds.
What is coming into the Washington and Oregon docks? Livestock? Pigs? Hogs?
Other animals? It would be wise to take a good look at things out there as
these states are likely going to see a quick ramp-up in cases.
These 6 states are about to begin their next waves and will
likely end up on the bad list above; Arizona, Texas, Colorado, Iowa, Nebraska and
Tennessee. Thus, there are 39 of the 50 US states in trouble right now with
active cases curves moving higher or a hair away from moving higher with daily
cases rising in all of these states. This is not good. Oregon is out of this
list and placed into the bad list above. Colorado and Iowa look dicey and
likely headed for the bad list in the next article.
The following 11 states are the best at handling the
pandemic and are currently doing all right; Georgia, Missouri, Alabama,
Oklahoma, Arkansas, Mississippi, Kansas, Wyoming, Montana, Nevada and Utah. Louisiana
dropped out of this group and is now on the bad list above with its fourth wave
starting. Mississippi, Nevada and Wyoming are a bit dicey but so far so good.
The thing to keep in mind is that less testing is occurring.
Hospital and other medical personnel are giving vaccinations instead of
performing testing. Thus, the 11 states that look a little better may only be
due to not testing so daily cases are not escalating.
Michigan remains in trouble due to the UK’s B117 strain
which is now spreading to neighboring states such as Pennsylvania, Ohio,
Indiana, Illinois and Wisconsin, as can be seen in the list above.
The pandemic is worsening around the world with major
trouble in India/Bangladesh, Brazil, Thailand/Cambodia, Philippines, Canada,
Europe and the Middle East. What a mess. It is interesting that South America
and Africa are weathering the storm despite the serious lack of vaccinations.
Perhaps people are developing natural antibodies since so many have gotten
sick?
Wouldn’t it be fascinating if the pandemic settles down
faster in the South America and Africa continents due to herd immunity through
natural antibodies while us dolts in the States may still be wrestling the
covid monster with vaccines and staying away from each other?
This week is critical. Every week is the week that is most
important, most critical, but it truly is this week. Charts and data are at
inflection points. The expected ramp-up in daily new cases, infections and
hospitalizations from the Easter party holiday weekend, baseball games and
other fun events is on tap this week. If there is no significant increase in
trouble, confetti will be thrown and a celebratory beverage will be in order.
If, however, the infections ramp higher, America is screwed into mid-May.
Watch the next 4 days of US daily new cases. They must
remain below the 7-day MA trend line at 70K. If the daily cases do exceed 70K
for a day or two, do not worry, they must drop immediately thereafter, however.
If the daily cases climb and take out the 79K-80K level on any of the 4 days,
forget it, America is toast for the next month. The Friday data, released early
Saturday morning, should be the highest numbers. Flip a coin and let it drop
onto the kitchen’s dirty linoleum floor. Heads the vaccines win but tails the
variants win. What is the coin showing?
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 4/14/21, at 3:00 AM EST: Bad news. It did not take long. The US reports 77.7K daily new cases for yesterday. The 7-day MA trend line is at 72.3K and continues moving higher verifying the ongoing wave four. As mentioned above, if the daily cases are above the 7-day for a couple days it is no biggie but if the daily cases remain above the 7-day MA for several days ahead the cases will likely begin accelerating higher. The Keystone Model calls out 79K as the line in the sand and is important since the target for the US active cases curve to roll over lower is the end of this month and early May. If the daily new cases exceed 79K for any day ahead, that will push the active cases chart roll over into mid-May. It is interesting how the cases spike higher to 78K testing this critical 79K daily case level. We have to wait until tomorrow to see if the cases are spanked back down or if they pop up through signaling misery ahead. What you are witnessing today with the spike higher in daily cases on Tuesday, 4/13/21, is perhaps the beginning of the expected surge higher in US cases due to the Easter weekend parties and events 4/3/21 through 4/6/21. The new infections are right on schedule as expected starting about 8 or 9 days after the event/s. The 3-day MA trend line prints another higher low verifying the upward trend and US 4th wave in progress. The US active cases curve curls higher again (reference that dark blue dotted line on the US active cases chart above). 819 Americans croak from the China Flu yesterday. Washington state cases pull back by half the prior day's record high for the current wave, which is a good thing, but 10 deaths occur which is above the 7-day MA. Oh-no. Michigan reports 10,277 daily new cases the highest number of the entire pandemic. Flush the Michigan chart shown above since the daily cases now take out all four of those highs shown. A big spike in cases occurs in Pennsylvania. Texas is being watched closely this week due to the huge elbow-to-elbow attendance at the Rangers baseball games on 4/5/21 and 4/6/21 about 40K people the first day and 35K the second. Texas reports 4.5K daily new cases an elevated number up for 3 consecutive days above the 7-day MA at 3.5K cases sloping higher. We may be watching the surge develop in real-time in Texas. The games are in the Dallas-Fort Worth area so the hospitals there would feel the pain from the baseball fun. Whoa. Florida republican Governor DeSantis clutches his chest and falls back into a whicker fan chair on his patio after seeing the daily case count. Florida reports a huge 9.1K daily new cases yesterday the highest since early February. Florida is likely beginning its fourth wave. Democrats will begin pounding DeSantis with the covid cudgel and try to discredit him and label him as incompetent since he is viewed as a top republican candidate for president in 2024.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 4/14/21, at 3:30 AM EST: Dear Lord. India is a mess. Your heart goes out to folks as India's daily new cases sky rocket over 183K. This is equivalent to every citizen in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, becoming sick with coronavirus overnight. It is mind-boggling. India deaths jump to 1,026 souls yesterday the highest since last October. India is in major trouble. Iran daily new cases spike to a higher high than the chart shown above. The Middle East is an infected covid nest. Columbia is in bad shape. Canada's active cases chart has gone parabolic so the Canucks are wrestling feverishly with the covid monster.
Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 4/14/21: The CDC advisory committee on immunization practices meet in an emergency session to discuss the J&J blood clot situation. They decide to punt. It is understandable that the doctors and scientists want to gather and analyze more information and make recommendations in a week or 10 days. Good luck to them making a decision on such limited cases and information. Colorado wins today's idiot award. Denver is ending its outside mask mandate at events and restaurants and gyms are opening to 100% capacity. Hey dolts, look at a chart. Colorado reports a spike of 2.3K daily new cases the highest since mid January. Colorado successfully created the bell curve for the active cases chart so there was reason to celebrate but the state is now in wave four. The active cases curve is expected to curl higher over the coming days. Colorado is worsening just as the political jackasses open things up. Hey dumbbells, look at some charts.
Note Added Wednesday Evening, 4/14/21: Denmark is the first nation to completely stop the AstraZeneca vaccines. The vaccination program will be delayed. Seven governments have suspended the AstraZeneca vaccine due to the blood clot issue. Both the AstraZeneca and J&J vaccines are adenovirus-based. The current data shows that a blood clot patient occurs in about 1 in every 200,000 AstraZeneca shots. The ratio is about 1 in every million for the J&J shots. 32 million Americans have become sick with China Flu which is 1 in 10 people (inverse 32/330). Worldwide, 139 million people are sick with coronavirus out of the 7.67 billion population which is 1 in 55 people (inverse 139/7670). Thus, individuals can weigh the 1 in 55 chance of getting sick with covid around the world and 1 in 10 chance of getting covid in the states, against the 1 in 200K chance of a blood clot with AstraZeneca and a 1 in a million chance of a blood clot with J&J. Also, at this point in time, there is not yet a confirmed link between the vaccines and clots. Sadly, there are always adverse effects with any drug and it is a shame if yourself or your family are the unlucky ones, but the drugs save a lot of lives. Interestingly, from a study of human behavior perspective, the fear of the vaccines will kill more people than the blood clots.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 4/15/21, at 1:30 AM EST: The US reports 78.4K daily new cases a slight bump higher than yesterday's numbers. The US 4th wave continues. The Easter weekend revelers are showing up in the data. The US active cases curve above dipped a hair on 4/12/21 but now curls higher 3 days hence (not good). 915 Americans die yesterday from COVID-19; another elevated number with the 7-day MA trend line at 746 and starting to flatten. Deaths peaked at 4,484 souls on 1/12/21 a horrific start to the year and 6 days after the Capitol Hill insurrection. It is good that America has only one-sixth the deaths of 3 months ago, however, tell that to families that lost a loved one. Michigan daily cases remain at elevated levels without improvement. Oregon reports 808 daily new cases the highest since February. The US needs to watch the West Coast ports for infections. A new concern is developing with the China Flu saga in that more young people are becoming infected in states such as Wisconsin and Minnesota.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 4/15/21, at 2:00 AM EST: It is another day and another record of daily new cases in India at 199,569 infections; call it 200K in 1 day. Oh my. This is equivalent to every citizen in Birmingham, Alabama, becoming sick with coronavirus overnight. It is unbelievable and a sad situation. India deaths are running at the peak levels from last September. India crosses the 14 million total cases milestone and is only superseded by the USA at over 32 million coronavirus cases. France shows progress with lower daily case numbers over the last week but the active cases curve continues higher. France is likely underreporting daily cases. Russia hits 104K deaths from covid. Turkey is turning into an India-style disaster with daily cases spiking off the chart. Turkey deaths hit an all-time record yesterday with 279 souls meeting The Maker. Oh-no. Germany's daily new cases sky rocket to 32.5K cases the highest ever! Chancellor Merkel will be ending her long career on a down note. 405 Germans die yesterday the highest since February. Canada crosses above 1 million total coronavirus cases with deaths elevated over the last couple weeks.
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 4/15/21: Controversy develops in the airline industry as the carriers begin offering the middle seats to flying customers again. Airlines are anxious to make up for lost revenue so they want to jam people together like sardines. The timing is bad since the US is in a fourth wave of the pandemic. Human greed always overrules all so the seats will be jammed and coronavirus cases will increase. The CDC says a 50% reduction in covid cases occurs if the center seat is left open. No one cares because they care about money more. Pfizer says a third shot is likely needed within 12 months and after that an annual booster is likely. So if you got 2 Pfizer jabs, you likely will get one more jab this year and then one next year. Don't worry. The government and health officials have your name, numbers, contact information, health data and even know where you live, so they will look forward to seeing you again. You are in the system now; keep that sleeve rolled-up. Dr Fauci testifies on Capitol Hill with bombastic republicans such as Jim Jordan blasting him asking him for a timeline on when the virus ends knowing that no one can answer that question. Fauci is slapped around like a punching bag, clearly Jordan is trying to get under his skin making the situation personal and the doctor says as much in his response. Fauci remains calm and did not take the bait.
Note Added Thursday Evening, 4/15/21: The CDC releases information on the breakthrough cases. Breakthroughs are a bad thing not a good thing. A breakthrough case is someone that is fully vaccinated but becomes sick with coronavirus. Remember, the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is 95% effective, Moderna is 94% and J&J 86%. Someone has to be that 5%. A doctor became very ill despite being fully vaccinated. There are 5,800 known breakthrough cases currently. 74 died. Most of the breakthrough's are over 60 years old. The numbers are similar to what is expected in yearly flu statistics. If 190K have been vaccinated, and 6K are breakthroughs, that is 3% so the numbers check out. There may be double the breakthrough cases since many people do not know where or how to report the cases, some may be embarrassed especially if they are hounding everyone to get a shot, some may not want to call the doctor and simply fight the symptoms for a couple days, there are a myriad of reasons for the number reported to be low so the 3% sounds about right and when final numbers are tallied for the breakthrough cases a year or two from now, it will likely land in the 5% to 10% range. If the variants take hold around the world and the waves keep coming, of course the breakthrough percentage will climb higher. The main selling point for vaccines is that the shot/s will prevent death in 100% of the cases. We know that is not true since 74 souls have died from breakthrough cases. However, this number is tiny so the doctors can say the vaccines prevent 99% of the deaths. The total number of deaths have been decreasing but as highlighted in the above article the death rate around the world and in the US remains consistent at about 2% for months. It has not budged. About 2% of the people that contract covid will die. Vaccines are helping to prevent overall deaths as the nonvaccinated die at the same pace.
Note Added Friday Morning, 4/16/21, at 3:00 AM EST: THE WORLD CROSSES THE GRIM MILESTONE OF 3 MILION DEATHS FROM COVID-19. The China Flu wreaks havoc on humanity. France crosses the grim 100K deaths milestone. President Macron is pulling a Trump where his mishandling of the pandemic is going to cost him the upcoming election. France ICU beds are above prior peak levels. Hospitalizations are quickly approaching the prior record highs. France is the eighth country to join the dreaded 100K dead club. USA is at the top with nearly 579K dead. Brazil is next, then Mexico, India, UK, Italy, Russia and now France. Germany just crosses the 80K death level. 16 nations have over 50K citizens dead. The CCP was messing with something nasty in those Wuhan bioweapons laboratories in 2019 and the world is paying the price for their communist deeds. Europe remains an infected covid nest. Ukraine worsens. Turkey reports the deadliest day ever and two days of record cases. Over 35K people have died in Turkey now one of the worst hot zones on earth. Czechia had successfully beaten back covid but another wave is underway again. The contagiousness of the virus is remarkable. It is like trying to shake a booger off the tip of your finger after you picked your nose. No matter how hard you shake your hand that booger will not fly off; it is sticky. Coronavirus is sticky (the spike protein is the suction-cup protrusion, that looks like a red golf tee, sticking-out from the coronavirus particle) and attaches itself to nasal passages and lungs and it is difficult to shed. Canada reports 23,500 deaths from covid. India is in dire straits reporting another record daily cases at 216,850 infections. It makes you speechless. This is equivalent to a moderate-sized American city becoming sick with covid overnight, everyone in that city, and this occurs day after day after day. India reports the third deadliest day of the pandemic with over 1.1K people dead.
Note Added Friday Morning, 4/16/21, at 4:00 AM EST: The USA reports 74.5K daily new cases for yesterday. It is another elevated day so wave four continues. Interestingly, as laid out in the article above, the Keystone Model identifies 79K as the line in the sand. The daily cases are knocking at this resistance door for the last 3 days but cannot yet poke above (a good thing). If daily cases remain below 79K, America is on pace to flatten the active cases curve and roll it to the downside at the end of this month or early May. The healthcare workers will notice the caseload improving the first or second week of May. If the daily cases exceed 79K today, America is screwed since wave four will then extend into mid-May. Adding to the drama, Friday's data is typically the most robust. It is all on the line today and Friday's numbers will be known in the wee hours of Saturday morning. Colorado has a problem with vaccinations and tells 4K people that they will need revaccinated. There may have been problems with the vaccine quality or quantity and/or shoddy vaccination procedures. Colorado is in a wave four as clearly shown by the daily new cases continuing higher although the active cases curve has not yet curled higher. Texas has elevated daily cases for 4 consecutive days, probably from the Texas Rangers baseball game, but it is not as bad as feared. This test case shows that outside events are likely safe for the public but mask-wearing should continue. Texas's active cases curve is starting to want to curl higher so the jury remains out. Texas data will have to be watched a few more days. Florida daily cases continue higher into a wave four underway but its active cases curve has not curled higher as yet. Conditions worsen or remain bad in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin and Minnesota as B117 spreads. Ohio Governor DeWine pleads with citizens to get vaccinated as the virus keeps spreading. DeWine proclaims to young people, "This vaccine is the ticket to freedom." The negative news on vaccines lately is reinforcing the vaccine hesitancy folks that waiting may be best. Health officials are mortified and for the first time are confronting the possibility that herd immunity will not be achieved since many people do not want vaccinated. If this is the case, those that are vaccinated may have did their duty for nothing. In Pennsylvania, there are many cancellations occurring and people not showing up for their shots over the last 2 days. An emergency meeting is called for today in Pennsylvania by politicians and health officials to figure out how to encourage the public to stick with the vaccination program that is losing steam. The Pfizer news about multiple shots is going to scare and discourage some of the vaccine hesitant people. The vaccines are a huge Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade balloon, a giant syringe floating above the crowd, with the doctors and other pundits from television holding the ropes that control the inflatable needle keeping it tethered to the ground. The giant syringe is deflating as the vaccination parade proceeds across the US. The limp vaccination balloon is moving perilously close to the electrical poles due to the strong variant winds.
Note Added Friday Morning, 4/16/21, at 6:30 AM EST: The WHO warns that the infection rate is approaching the highest level seen during the pandemic. The peak in global daily new cases is 845K cases on both 1/7/21 and 1/8/21. The global daily new cases are at 795K cases now a stone's throw away from taking out the all-time high. The global pandemic is as bad as its past peak but economies are reopening and people trying to resume normal lives which only serves to further spread the disease. WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, who lays in bed with the CCP, proclaims, "Around the world, cases and deaths are continuing to increase at worrying rates." Cases per week around the world are doubling.
Note Added Friday Afternoon, 4/16/21: The Whitehouse covid task force is preparing for booster vaccine shots. This news will only serve to discourage people on the fence about getting the shot. Biden of course wants the message out there to show he is proactive with the fight against coronavirus, which is a welcome sight as compared to Trump's plan of pretending and hoping the virus would go away, but telling people they will be at the doctor's office every few months for a shot here on out is not going to create inoculation enthusiasm, if there is such a thing. The polio vaccine was received joyfully since everyone wanted protection from that terrible paralyzing disease. The public, despite seeing nearly 580K American deaths, have more of a laissez-faire attitude with covid. Go figure.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 4/17/21, at 2:00 AM EST: Real bad news. The Friday data is typically the most robust and it is strong although perhaps not as strong as feared. The US reports 82K daily new cases the highest number since the 86K on 4/9/21, last Friday. There is a sliver of hope since at least the daily cases did not exceed 86K Friday to Friday. However, the 82K is within 8% (79K) of the peak top of 86K, as per the Keystone Model, so the news is bad. The active cases will not firmly flatten and roll over to the downside until mid-May. Thus, healthcare workers will be busy beavers over the next month. The US was on track to flatten the active cases curve (shown above moving flat with an upward bias which is bad) late this month or the first week of May and then roll it over lower to get rid of covid. Now the timeline extends due to the robust daily case number for Friday at 82K new infections in the US. The US active cases curve will likely not flatten and roll over, to give healthcare workers a break, until early to mid May. We needed that Friday number of daily cases to remain below 79K but alas, it did not. 887 Americans die yesterday at the hands of the China Flu. The death numbers are higher and starting to consistently report above the 7-day MA trend line now at 727 deaths (not good since it pulls the trend line higher which forecasts more deaths for a longer period of time). The US fourth wave continues.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 4/17/21, at 2:30 AM EST: COVID-19 is rising in one-half of the US states. Texas daily cases move sideways with a hair of an upward bias, and the active cases curve is flat perhaps starting to curl higher, but at this juncture, Texas has held up decently after the Easter weekend and Texas Rangers baseball game party days a week and a half ago. However, the Dallas-Fort Worth hospitals are seeing slightly elevated cases which is where the two largely attended baseball games were played. Interestingly, the B117 is most rampant in this region but both the New York B1526 and California B1429/1429 variants appear in testing in the Dallas, Texas, area. Dallas has more vaccine than people willing to become inoculated. Anyone 55 years old and older can receive the shot anytime by walking up to a vaccination site. Anyone under 55 years old has to pre-register but will immediately receive the shot the next day. Michigan remains a covid disaster zone. This is the hot spot in America; Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin and Minnesota. The UK B117 variant is radiating out from Michigan, and Ontario to the north is smacked around as well. Oregon needs to be vigilant. Something is going on there that is not good. The US approved $1.7 billion in funding for more genomic testing so some of that dough needs to go directly to Oregon to see what is spreading. Ditto Washington state. Watch the ports.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 4/17/21, at 3:00 AM EST: The global picture worsens. The total COVID-19 cases in the world is now one single hair from setting a new all-time record for the pandemic. The world saw 845K daily new cases on both 1/7/21 and 1/8/21. Yesterday, Friday, 4/16/21, the world reports 845,226 daily new cases. It is within a few thousand of the all-time high for the pandemic a sad statistic. The Wuhan Virus does not want to go away. Looking for a sliver of positivity, the daily deaths during the same period, peak to peak, from early January to mid-April, drop from over 17K to 14K now. It is still a horrific number but at least the deaths are not running as high as months ago. The virus already killed off the elderly and vulnerable folks around much of the world. More young people are becoming sick but they are recovering at a faster rate and not dying as much as those over 60 years old.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 4/17/21, at 3:30 AM EST: The tragedy in India is now at the horrific stage. It is mind-bending. India reports 234K daily new cases yesterday. How is that even possible? 1,338 Indians die yesterday the highest of the pandemic except for one day last June that was likely just a large data error reporting day. India's charts have gone parabolic. One can only imagine the pain and suffering occurring and Mother Theresa is no longer with us to provide aid and comfort. Turkey's pandemic is spinning out of control. Where's Erdogan? Bueller? Erdogan? Bueller? Nearly 300 Turks die on Thursday and then again on Friday the deadliest two days of the pandemic. Iran tops 66K dead during the pandemic. Iran's situation is dire like Turkey. Daily cases are at record levels the last few days and the charts have gone parabolic. The Iran breakout is spreading north and west to Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and other stan's. The Thailand charts have gone vertical. The virus must have spread from India through troubled Burma (Myanmar), which is in chaos under a military coup so the data is not reliable, into Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia. This is a serious hotspot and these nations need to buckle down quickly or they may look like India in a few weeks. Malaysia needs to watch out since the virus breakout is escalating. South Korea continues wresting with the latest wave that is not yet under control. Oh-no. Japan reports 4.6K daily new cases the highest since January. What a mess with the Olympics constantly in limbo. It has to be difficult for the athletes to train for something that they are unsure if it will even happen.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 4/17/21, at 4:00 AM EST: As per the CDC vaccination map and data presented in The New York Times, the US administers 4 million shots yesterday. There are lots of Americans still willing to roll up their sleeves. The average rate is 3.35 million doses per day so everyone involved deserves praise for their hard work. 24% of Americans have been vaccinated; 1 in 4 people. This is helping to keep the ongoing wave four at bay, for now. 202 million shots are administered so taking away the 20 credited to former President Trump, is 182 million shots on President Biden's ledger. The president's first 100 days ends in 13 days (4/30/21) and he needs another 18 million shots in arms to reach his 200 million goal. Sleepy Joey, the magician of under promising, and over delivering, a master politician, will cross the 200 goal in only 5 or 6 days at the 3.35 million doses per day rate (18/3.35); by next weekend. The rate could drop to 1.4 million doses per day (18/13) and Biden would still easily achieve his 200 million shot goal within the first 100 days (by 4/30/21). You can already hear the bragging come May Day (5/1/21). Aren't the demopublicans and republocrats sickening? Fear not, the young independent Americans will take the country forward over the next decade or two exiting crony capitalism and moving towards a system that can provide equal opportunity for everyone instead of the rigged game for the wealthy.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 4/17/21, at 4:30 AM EST: The US hospitalizations continue higher, as per the CDC data, although at a calm slope. New hospitalizations may be flattening. CDC Director Walensky remains concerned over the rising hospitalizations. The J&J vaccine remains on the temporary halt due to the blood clot investigation. The CDC and other officials plan to meet next Friday, 4/23/21, to decide the path forward.
Note Added Saturday Afternoon, 4/17/21: In a Fox Business News interview, the CEO of Moderna, Stephane Bancel, says, "Boosters are likely needed for the vaccines in the future." He says the Moderna vaccine is showing great efficacy against the variants including B117, which is biting Michigan and surrounding states, Brazil's P1 and South Africa's B1351. Bancel says the vaccine will protect against these variants in the short-term but the Fall and winter is an unknown (he hears the cash registers ringing in his head as updated vaccines are needed every few months; ka-ching, ka-ching). Pfizer and Moderna both say additional booster shots will be needed probably a few months after the initial 2-shot regimen for these mRNA offerings.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 4/18/21, at 3:00 AM EST: Over 580K Americans are dead from covid. The weekend data is subdued compared to the Monday through Friday data. The US reports 64K daily new cases remaining elevated but below the 7-day MA at 70K. The 3-day MA trend line displays 4 higher highs and 4 higher lows verifying the wave 4 uptrend. However, a positive development occurs over the last couple days. The 3-day MA peaks again but at 78K but the prior peak in the 3-day was 80K on 4/9/21. It is a lower high (a good thing). The uptrend in the 3-day MA trend line of daily new cases is broken so next it would be important to see a lower low (taking out the prior low in the 3-day MA) which would be cause for encouragement and optimism. The US daily new cases and active cases are lining-out sideways. It is great that the daily cases have not gone parabolic (straight vertical) as past waves, however, it is not great that the charts will not drop off lower. America is in suspended animation right now deciding if wave 4 goes vertical wreaking havoc, or, if it turns out to be a bump and rolls over. Wave 4 comes about from the St Patty's and Easter holiday parties, springtime frolicking shedding cabin fever, spring breaks for college students, pandemic fatigue and confidence in the vaccination program. People continue to mask-up and social distance. Even though gettogethers are rising, folks are responsible for the most part. The young folks ill in Michigan are admitting that they have been at gettogethers (partying with their friends). Authorities put the kibosh on the spring break parties so perhaps as the vaccinations continue, and everyone behaves themselves, conditions may improve where the US active cases curve can roll over lower before early or mid-May which is the current projection as per the Keystone Model. 738 Americans die yesterday an elevated number for a Saturday.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 4/18/21, at 3:30 AM EST: Michigan remains the hotspot in America with their hospitals overrun. Governor Whitmore keeps asking for move vaccine but it is a moot point since 6 weeks of time would be needed for the additional shots to be effective but Michigan is up to its eyeballs in covid now. Whitmore is floundering but cutting her some slack, she is dealing with a large part of the population that does not want to follow government covid guidelines and her life was under threat by a few nutcases that have been apprehended. So there is a lot going on in Whitmore's neck of the woods and she is likely not winning any points with Ontario, Canada, that is dealing with a massive outbreak perhaps spreading from Michigan. New York's daily new cases spike higher to 8.3K. North Carolina requires serious attention. Daily cases remain robust with a higher bias (not good). Watch the ports. The migrant crisis at the southern border maintains elevated cases for Arizona, New Mexico and Texas but like the US as a whole, the cases are not spiking higher, but they are not going down either. New Mexico is the state of concern. Perhaps many people are crossing the border here and the US government may be bussing migrants into New Mexico? Oh-no. There you go. Oregon has been identified for several days as a worrisome area. Oregon reports 875 daily new cases the most since January and it is a Saturday number! Oregon will be realized as a hotspot in the coming days. There are protests and civil unrest occurring in the state in cities such as Portland that are likely spreading covid along with the ports. Cases remain elevated in Washington state. The CDC knows where to focus efforts and does not need advice from a man sitting on a lawn chair enjoying the scenic Laurel Ridge mountains of Pennsylvania, but the expanding funding for DNA testing should be used in Oregon, Washington state, North Carolina, take a look at New Mexico, and then map the extent of the B117 spread via genomic testing in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin and Minnesota. Chop chop.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 4/18/21, at 4:00 AM EST: The global coronavirus infections are at the worst peaks seen in January. After 15 months of humans doing everything humanly possible to fight the China Flu, the pandemic is at the same peak levels of daily cases. In the H G Wells classic The War of the Worlds, governments threw everything they could at defeating the Martians but alas, human firepower and ingenuity failed. Just as all hope was lost, the Martians perished from disease. Perhaps all our noble medical efforts to defeat coronavirus worldwide will fail, but do not worry and lose hope, because COVID-19 may decide to simply go away, when it feels like going away. Prior viruses run about an 18-month cycle so as America deals with the fourth wave wondering if it will worsen, or subside, maybe in May-June, covid could decide to flitter away. In the meantime, reality bites. India reports 261K daily new cases another record high. Unbelievable. 4 consecutive days at or above 200K new cases per day. They are dropping like flies in India. In only 6 weeks, India's daily cases catapult from 19K per day to 261K per day (14 times). Michigan's daily cases jump from 1.7K to 10K in the same time frame (6 times). It makes sense that covid spreads faster in India where lots of folks are packed together like sardines, but the data show that B117 spreads faster than the standard coronavirus and India's dreaded E484Q/L452R strain is worse (spreads faster) than B117. India's deaths are at a record high again with 1,500 souls riding the vimana to heaven yesterday.
Note Added Sunday Afternoon, 4/18/21: Hong Kong imposes a 14-day travel ban on Philippines, India and Pakistan due to the identification of a couple of cases of India's E484Q/L452R variant and overall worries about the out of control infections in those nations. This is well and good but Hong Kong is missing the 900-pound coronavirus gorilla's sitting on their living room couch. Go ahead and impose the same ban on Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Malaysia since infections are rising and these nations are right next door. Hong Kong reports 30 new COVID-19 cases today the highest in a month. South Korea continues wrestling with wave four that is not yet under control. Japan in in trouble with cases spiking into the 4.6K range the last 3 days this infection level not seen since January. The Olympics begin in Tokyo in 95 days. China screwed the world.
Note Added Monday Morning, 4/19/21, at 2:00 AM EST: The US daily new cases are at 43K a subdued number as would be expected for Sunday. The sideways covid limbo continues. The race between variants and vaccines continues, or, if you prefer, infections versus injections. America exceeds 581K deaths. Michigan's test positivity rate is at 12% remaining elevated but nearly halving the rate from a couple weeks ago. Every 1 in 8 Michiganders that are tested for coronavirus have the infection. Alaska announces plans to offer free vaccinations starting 6/1/21. The cruise lines remain docked so the Alaska tourism industry is in the crapper. By offering free shots, Alaska believes people will travel from nations with slow vaccination rollouts.
Note Added Monday Morning, 4/19/21, at 2:30 AM EST: Global cases are at new all-time highs as shown in the chart above. After 15 months, the worldwide pandemic has never been worse. The variants are creating trouble. India is a daily disaster and the infections do not stop. The charts are parabolic. India reports over 275K daily new cases yesterday. This is the equivalent of an entire US city, such as Toledo, Ohio, or Orlando, Florida, becoming sick with covid overnight. It is mind-blowing. India tops 15 million total coronavirus cases only exceeded by the USA at 32.4 million cases. 1,625 Indian souls ride the vimana to the promised land yesterday. Brazil is rolling its active cases chart over to create the bell shape, a good thing, however, the path forward is shaky with infections and deaths remaining very high. That P1 is nasty and continues wreaking havoc to other South American countries. Chile has a great vaccination program but the infection rates remain robust. Chile is using China's state-run Sinovac CoronaVac vaccine which is found to only be 50% or 60% effective against COVID-19 after the second dose and basically useless after the first dose. Chile is now talking a third dose for the weeks ahead. CoronaVac is only 50% effective against Brazil's P1. Do you think the filthy CCP has a better vaccine that they only give to the Chinese people? China-controlled company CanSino Biologics begins drug trials for a vaccine inhalation treatment. The communists, that started the global pandemic, can only offer a mediocre vaccine to the world but now they are going to solve the pandemic with an inhaler. Apparently, as CNBC reports, the vaccine inhalation drug may be offered as an additional layer of treatment along with the vaccines. The African Swine Flu (ASF) continues killing pigs in regions of China. Pork imports into the communist nation are increasing so ASF is doing damage. Prior articles have explained the interesting link between ASF and COVID-19 infections. The coronavirus outbreaks in several African port nations, that occurred a few weeks ago, were exactly in line with outbreaks of ASF in the pig populations in these exact same locations.
Note Added Monday Morning, 4/19/21, at 3:00 AM EST: President Biden declared today as the day for all US states to open eligibility to all Americans that are 18 years old and up. Vaccine trials on children as young as 2 years old are underway since the medical community knows the only way to herd immunity is going to be inoculating young people. A significant portion of the American population will likely refuse the shots so the race is on to make up that deficit by inoculating children. A hot button issue mid and late summer will be schools and universities perhaps requiring vaccination. There are nearly 20 universities already announcing plans that college students must be vaccinated to attend school in the Fall. So far, the US government says no to mandatory shots, but everyone knows how that goes in the crony capitalism system. Will vaccines become mandatory for children under 18 years old? We will know this summer.
Note Added Monday Morning, 4/19/21, at 3:30 AM EST: Fauci proclaims that the CDC, FDA and medical advisory board will probably approve the J&J vaccine for continued use this Friday although "there will likely be some sort of warning or restriction or risk assessment." Other countries have approved the J&J and AstraZeneca vaccines for older folks, typically about 60 years old and older. A lot of vaccine hesitant folks wanted the J&J 1-shot and done vaccine so the pause slightly hurts the US vaccination program. The J&J pause negatively impacts other nations that want the vaccine due to its normal refrigeration requirements. UK researchers begin a study that will reinfect people that already had covid to note the reaction and response of the antibodies.
Note Added Monday Afternoon, 4/19/21: UK Prime Minister Johnson cancels a trip to India and places the infected nation on the travel ban list. The UK needs trading partners now that it exited (Brexit; Britain exiting EU) the EU (European Union) so England is kissing India's dupa. Everyone needs a laugh in the middle of a pandemic. Russia proclaims that the Sputnik V vaccine is 98% effective (but they will not share data or let others run tests). Pause for laughter. Third world nations need vaccine and Sputnik V plays a role but the efficacy is likely not 98%. Putin is a murderous dirtbag lying dictator just like Xi.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 4/20/21, at 4:00 AM EST: USA daily new cases are at 52K yesterday repeating Sunday's number which is slight encouragement since the two numbers are below the flat 7-day MA trend line at 70K. Another bright spot is the 3-day MA trend line that prints a lower low at 58K cases yesterday below the 62K low on 4/12/21. The 3-day MA has now printed a lower high and a lower low. The one-month US wave four is definitely flattening rather than rising. Great news. Thus, the data on the remaining 4 days this week, today through the Friday, is key to see if wave four now rolls over lower indicating blue skies and rainbows ahead, or, if wave four reaccelerates higher as the spread from Michigan infects neighboring states and new potential hot spots are created in Oregon, Washington state, North and South Carolina and New Mexico. Use the 7-day MA at 70K as the guidepost. It will be wine and roses ahead if the daily new cases remain below 70K this week but a stab to the gut will occur if any of the daily new cases exceed 70K per day. Michigan remains a mess the state now crossing 18K deaths. Detroit is known for its auto manufacturing plants with several operating at slower production levels. There are about 600 workers sick at the Ram pickup truck plant. Auto workers are pulled from other states and sent to Michigan to help (they must have drawn the short straws). Michigan's active cases curve is stuttering at the top so keep the fingers crossed that it is topping out and will flatten and roll over to form the bell shape and signal that the worst is over (as it did in December's wave). The Keystone Model targets 5/14/21 as when Michigan's active cases curve will flatten and roll over lower. The prior Michigan topping process took about 3 weeks and this timing would target 5/10/21 which is in the same ball park. Michigan in in bad shape but the current case loads should steady over the next 2 to 3 weeks and things should improve (noticeable by the healthcare workers) from early to mid-May forward. In a positive development, the neighboring states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin and Minnesota, that were ramping higher with infections spreading out from Michigan, are reporting flatter data like the overall USA data and charts described above. This is very good news especially coming from the resident wet blanket. Oregon and Washington state remain major areas of concern. Texas is a hair away from 50K total COVID-19 deaths. New Mexico crosses above 4K deaths. The pandemic news for the states is the best it has been over the last month. We watched the virus begin its spread from Michigan outward but the vaccinations appear to be making a real dent in the infection rates. The infections versus injections race continues and this morning, for the US, the injections pull slightly ahead of the infections.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 4/20/21, at 4:30 AM EST: India daily new cases are huge at 256K but finally a number that stops going up and is below the peak at 275K on Sunday, 4/18/21. This is the sixth consecutive day of India cases at 200K or higher. Oxygen supply shortages are occurring across the country despite regional leaders decreeing otherwise. The Brazil death rate skyrocketed when oxygen supplies disappeared. Unfortunately, it is likely showing in the death numbers in India now at 1.757 dead yesterday the highest of the pandemic (ignoring a spike high last June that was likely a data anomaly). That's sad. As depressing as it is is to see the Indian folks getting sick at an alarming infection rate, they will be dying at a faster rate probably for the next couple weeks. Indian oil refineries are shutting down due to the virus spread. India's outbreak has negative ramifications on the global economy. The pandemic in Pakistan is equally bad as India. The virus continues moving through central and eastern Europe but conditions are improving slightly. It is concerning, however, to see the infection rates continuing to rise in Spain which could then create a whole new wave moving across Europe from west to east. Malaysia infections are rising and it would be wise if the nation took additional measures to combat COVID-19 immediately. Thailand is in bad shape but the data is very scarce. Canada data and charts are terrible with infections remaining at elevated record levels. The hospital system is stretched. What are you Canucks doing up there? There must be a lot of comingling going on inside the plaid sleeping bags and under the wool blankets. Ontario is dealing with spread from Michigan. The weather is improving and warming in the northern hemisphere which will greatly help stimy the virus spread.
Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 4/20/21: Global markets are becoming shaky due to the pandemic at its worst point ever. The entire world sees an uptick in cases although Europe is weathering the covid storm better. India's double mutant E484Q/L452R strain, now dubbed B1617, is appearing in many nations including the US. The UK is concerned over the rise in B1617 cases necessitating a travel ban. The B1617 strain may be stronger, and may be outcompeting, the B117 (UK strain that began in Kent southeast of London) and P1 (Brazil) strains. Singapore imposes travel restrictions with India. These leaders are great at closing the barn gate once the covid horse has escaped. India is a hub for vaccine manufacturing for the world so it is especially worrisome that the pandemic rages out of control. The US is increasing its travel bans around the world limiting movement to 80% of the nations on earth. Airline stocks collapse from -4% to -10%. Netflix stock (NFLX) plummets -10% after releasing earnings. Netflix was a huge beneficiary of the pandemic during the lockdown as people searched for entertainment, however, after binge watching all the content, people are ditching subscriptions. At the same time, Netflix is challenged on producing new content in the middle of a pandemic. 1 in 5 infections in the USA currently are kids. The EU says there is a potential link between the J&J vaccine and blood clots but the benefits outweigh the risks. J&J will resume vaccine shipments to Europe as the US still decides on the path forward.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 4/21/21, at 3:00 AM EST: 32.5 million Americans have been infected with COVID-19 with 582,486 dying and 25.1 million recovering. US daily cases are 63K yesterday remaining below the 7-day MA at 67K (a good thing). The US daily new cases and active cases continue sideways in wave four deciding whether to turn lower signaling that the vaccines are working, or, accelerate higher as variants outsmart the vaccines. 883 Americans die yesterday above the 7-day MA trend line at 747 deaths per day. The increased genomic testing, which identifies the variants, should be expanded for Oregon, Washington state, the Carolina's, Louisiana and Pennsylvania. Louisiana jumps into its wave four in quick order; if you are not watching you would have missed it. Louisiana daily new cases are at levels not seen since February. These six states have potential to be Michigan's as the days move forward. The Carolina's are improving over the last couple days. New York's test positivity rate drops below 5% for the first time in many weeks so restaurants, gyms and entertainment venues continue opening slowly.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 4/21/21, at 3:30 AM EST: India's pandemic worsens daily. Surprisingly, Prime Minister Modi is asking the states and citizens to delay lockdowns as long as possible. Modi must be gunning for herd immunity by getting the entire population sick. Hospital beds are non-existent and lack of oxygen supplies will result in more deaths. India daily new cases are a devastating 294K people nearly 300K in one day becoming infected!! Words cannot describe such a tragedy. 2,020 Indians die yesterday. That is over 2K in 1 day!!
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 4/21/21, at 4:00 AM EST: US hospitalizations and new admissions move higher after hinting that a pause may occur. No such luck. The spread from Michigan/Pennsylvania, Oregon/Washington, Louisiana and the Carolina's dictate the path forward for America. As per the CDC vaccination map and data provided by The New York Times, 26% of Americans are vaccinated; 1 in every 4 people. 40% have received at least 1 shot which is good news. If the US wins the vaccine versus variant race, the question remains how effective the vaccines will be against the variant strains especially India's B1617. Sadly, the US vaccination rate is falling off sharply now down to 3.0 million doses per day off the peak high of 3.4. This clearly shows that America is hitting the 'vaccine wall'. The vaccine supply is ample but the demand is falling. About 20% of Americans do not plan to be vaccinated but more importantly, there are millions on the fence that are willing to be convinced to take the shot, but the J&J blood clot problem has many of them scared. Logistics is also an issue so a more direct effort will be needed to supply shots to folks in the inner cities and poor rural areas. Nonetheless, the demand is definitely falling off which makes herd immunity more difficult to achieve. The US will push to vaccinate children to help with herd immunity, however, if one of the variants overpower the vaccines, take your pick, B117 (UK; Kent), B1351 (South Africa), P1 (Brazil), B1526 (New York), B1427/B1429 (California), B1617 (India), or many others such as an unknown variant developing in Japan, the entire inoculation program may be for naught.
Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 4/21/21: President Biden speaks once again playing the role of Santa Claus handing out government money by decree. Biden is concerned about the vaccine hesitancy since the supply of shots is in excess of the demand in several US states. This will only increase so Biden is trying to keep the vaccination train moving down the tracks. Since some folks have not taken the vaccine due to a busy work schedule, the president encourages employers to allow for a day off of work to get the vaccine and also a day to recover if needed with full pay. Biden says the US government will cover the cost with a tax break. Folks that are already vaccinated are dumb since they could have received a couple days off work to goof-off courtesy of Uncle Sam. Sleepy Joey also proclaims that the 200 million shots in arms within the first 100 days in office goal will be achieved tomorrow. We will let the math decide since Biden, like King Trump, operates very fast and loose with the actual facts. Today is Joe's 92nd day in office and the 100th day is next Friday, 4/30/21 As per the CDC vaccination map and data provided by The New York Times, 278 million vaccine doses have been shipped and delivered to the US states and territories. 216 million shots are administered. This is the key number. 20 million shots are credited to King Donnie through inauguration day, 1/20/21. Thus, Biden is at 196 million doses administered under his watch. The vaccination rate is at 3.0 million doses per day and Joey needs 4 million more for the 200 million goal. Biden said the goal will be reached tomorrow. It may be Friday instead but that is no reason to quibble. It is, of course, close enough for government work, as the ole saying goes. Biden is the master at setting low goals and overachieving so he looks like a hero. The stage lost a great actor when Biden won the presidency. The 200 million shot target was an easy goal with the bar set so low it was lying on the carpet. Sleepy Joey shuffled his black orthopedic shoes across that low bar with minimal effort. Nonetheless, satire, humor and cynicism aside, congratulations to everyone involved in America's vaccination effort; it is a noble achievement and deserves national pride. As Biden says, however, there is still a long way to go. He repeats the goal of the US having a more normal life again come Independence Day (7/4/21).
Note Added Wednesday Evening, 4/21/21: Biden is obviously concerned about the vaccine hesitancy, or skepticism crowd, since it impacts whether the US reaches herd immunity, or not. Some describe this point in time as hitting the 'vaccine wall'. The Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) calls it the 'tipping point' saying demand dictates the path ahead rather than vaccine supply. Dr Sanjay Gupta provides a chart from the KFF that says 7% of Americans never plan to take the vaccine, 13% will only take the shot if required, 17% have a wait and see approach and 61% have already received the shots or plan to as soon as possible. The 17% are the major target. Biden wants to convince that group because that 20% of Americans want nothing to do with the vaccines. The president pledges to help other nations with vaccine that is not used in the US.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 4/22/21, at 2:30 AM EST: Happy Earth Day. The US reports 65K daily new cases for yesterday now in a 3-day upswing again. The 7-day MA trend line is at, wait for it, 65K as well. Flip a coin to determine the direction ahead for America's fourth infection wave. Each time it looks like the trend lower will restart the cases increase and when it looks like wave four is going to become real nasty, instead it rolls over and reports a day or three of lower cases. The sideways move in new cases, active cases, hospitalizations and deaths continue. 876 Americans die yesterday sadly above the 7-day MA at 736 deaths but happily far below, by a factor of six, from the 4,493 deaths on 1/12/21. That was a sad way to begin the year along with the Capitol Hill riot the week before the peak in deaths. 583,330 Americans are dead from the China Flu. Michigan remains in trouble but conditions should improve in a couple weeks. Whoa. The data and charts hint that Oregon was going to be a problem and daily new cases spike higher to 977 cases the most since mid-January. A variant is likely taking off like wildfire in Oregon. Washington state daily cases remain elevated. California's active cases curve continues with an upward bias (bad) but the daily cases continue in a 2-month downtrend. California is likely underreporting its daily new cases. Texas is sadly only a few bodies away from 50K total deaths. Just when Texas was going to receive credit for handling the virus, despite reopening the economy and allowing largely-attended venues such as baseball games to restart, the daily cases are not looking as good. Texas daily cases are flatlining as well as the active cases curve. Deaths pop slightly. Texas may be starting a new wave right now; a few days will be required to see how it goes. The United States is such an oddball mixed picture these days. It is very difficult o get a read on which way the virus is going. The vaccine program is working as infections and deaths are way down from the peaks but is some of this perhaps due to the virus simply dying away on its own? History shows that many viruses due flitter out on their own after about 18 months and science cannot categorically explain why. Many US states are moving in a positive direction but recent outbreaks, likely due to variants, are cause for concern in others such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Washington, Oregon, California, Louisiana, Mississippi and the Carolina's. New Jersey is also having difficulty taming the covid beast. Aside from the US, the world is under vaccinated and will require the coming months, into 2022, to catch-up with the Western nations so the coronavirus drama continues. Off the cuff, Oregon is likely the worst US state right now and the same as Michigan was 3 weeks or a month ago. There is likely bad news coming for Oregonians over the next month. Oregon's hospitals should be making serious plans right now to handle the developing caseload. COVID-19 is sticking around like aesthetically-challenged Uncle Charley staying in the guest house next to the pool. No matter how hard you want him to go, he sticks to the lounge chair in his Speedos.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 4/22/21, at 3:00 AM EST: India's numbers remain horrific at 316K daily new cases. This is equivalent to the entire city of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA, becoming sick with coronavirus within 24 hours, day after day after day. How is that even possible? Hospitals cannot handle such a load. Critically-ill people lay in hallways and parking lots. Oxygen supplies are exhausted. Oxygen cylinders and supplies from industrial sites are rushed to the hospitals to help save lives but the businesses will be set back. Sadly, as seen in Brazil when oxygen starts running low, deaths spike higher. India reports 2,102 deaths yesterday the second day topping 2K deaths and the deadliest days ever. The shutdowns of oil refineries will increase prices for gasoline and other fuels which in turn hurts the global economy. India is a hub of vaccine manufacturing and it does not help that the cook is sick. News outlets are saying that India is underreporting numbers which makes the horrific situation even worse. Only 10% of India is vaccinated. Interestingly, northern India is seeing over 90% of the infections, where the population eats more of a gluten-based diet, while the south is less sick eating a rice, fish, beans, squash, seaweed-based diet. Eat like an Asian if you want to boost your immune system. Dr Joel Wallach wrote a book many years ago with these themes called Hell's Kitchen and also has a web site Critical Health News where he preaches that a non-gluten diet is key to a healthy life. In fairness, many regions in northern India are densely-populated which spreads the virus quickly as well. India will remain the covid Hell on Earth for the next month as B1617 (E484Q/L452R) creates death and destruction. Singapore bans travel with India. In the Middle East, the UAE, which is implementing a solid vaccination program, considers the idea of placing travel and other restrictions on citizens that are not vaccinated. Domestic and international outrage follows. The vaccine passport issue keeps raising its elite class head above the covid waters.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 4/22/21, at 4:00 AM EST: The deaths in Mexico are at 2-month highs at over 500 deaths per day for the last week. South Korea reports the highest daily cases since the first few days of the new year. South Korea and Japan were strong examples on how to handle the virus now they look like bozo's. Japan is going to name regions as emergency areas. The Olympics are on, until they are not, with only 1% of the island nation vaccinated!! Taiwan, New Zealand and Australia remain the best examples of handling the pandemic. Also, Singapore, that is now restricting travel with Japan. Malaysia remains a concern as the case numbers increase. Spain remains worrisome.
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 4/22/21: Texas A&M researchers and scientists discover a new variant, dubbed BV-1, in university students. The variant is more resistant to the vaccines. Genomic testing discovered the new variant named BV for Brazos Valley where the strain originated between Houston and Austin. Japan declares states of emergency in Tokyo, Osaka, Kyoto and Hyogo. Restaurants and bars are shutdown as well as spectator events. Japan is caught with its kimono down since only a pathetic 1% of the population is vaccinated. Five Japanese are sick with a double-mutant variant that may be spreading across the island nation.
Note Added Friday Morning, 4/23/21, at 3:00 AM EST: The US reports 67K daily new cases above yesterday's 65K cases and above the 7-day MA at 64K cases. The sick pattern continues where 3 days of improving daily cases gives way to several days of rising cases, rinse and repeat. This behavior maintains flat and indecisive daily new cases and active cases charts. Today's daily case numbers are key and will be known tomorrow morning. The Friday data is typically the highest (bad) so it provides important insight in determining the trend forward for the fourth wave. Obviously, everyone hopes for lower and lower numbers. A robust daily case number above the 7-day MA at 64K would be disappointing since it would indicate that the fourth wave stink will linger. For the last three Friday's, the daily new cases are 74K, 85K and 82K. Cases were ramping higher as wave four developed and started marching higher, however, the Friday data peaked on 4/9/21. Last Friday's 82K was below the prior Friday's 85K which was a positive despite the highly elevated numbers if viewing the data from a wider perspective. Thus, if today's US daily cases are below 64K, wave four has a good chance of petering out and the curves will begin lower again making for happy Americans. If today's daily cases are between 65K and 81K, the sloppy sideways wave four mess, with the slight upward bias, continues. If today's cases come in above 82K, America is screwed going forward and wave four will begin going vertical. The final numbers for today should be available in the early morning hours tomorrow. Nearly 900 US deaths occur from the China Flu yesterday. Deaths are basing and moving sideways after retreating from the dark days of January. This is not good since we want the daily deaths to keep dropping down to zero. The US wave started early March with the ramp up in daily new cases. About 7 weeks into wave four, the daily cases are rolling over for the last couple weeks which is great. The increase in daily cases causes the active cases chart (the bell curve chart) to stop going down and instead flatten out into the existing sideways pattern. Now, the deaths are elevated so the same pattern of new infections occur, then about 2 weeks later hospitalizations and active cases ramp higher, then about 2 weeks after that the deaths bump higher. It is textbook COVID-19 at this stage. It is encouraging to see the daily new cases moving lower so today's number carries even more weight. The wave four bump is due to St Patty['s Day and Easter weekend parties, businesses and entertainment venues reopening, cabin fever, pandemic fatigue, springtime joy, and vaccine overconfidence. As people comingle more, cases rise. Americans must be trained well at this point because wave four would have been expected to go parabolic but it did not, yet. Perhaps natural antibodies are playing a far bigger role in the pandemic than anyone thinks (millions more Americans were sick with covid than realized which brings the USA to herd immunity faster). The vaccinations are obviously helping. Perhaps the Wuhan Virus is also sick of us humans and after wreaking havoc for about a year and one-half, it is flittering away, as has other past viruses?
Note Added Friday Morning, 4/23/21, at 4:00 AM EST: Oregon may be the worst state (besides Michigan) in the union right now with cases ramping higher. It would be wise to conduct extensive genomic testing in Oregon. Michigan continues its covid battle with elevated deaths reported yesterday. The spread from Michigan to the neighboring states has slowed which is good news. Cases in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin and Minnesota are flat to rolling over so hopefully that trend will continue and wave four will die. Ontario, Canada, to the north of Michigan, should see some improvement in the following days if it follows the same behavior of the neighboring US states. Ohio crosses the 19K deaths grim milestone. The data is encouraging that the wave four bump will fade away, however, the jury remains out. The Friday daily case number is uber important and will be known in about 22 hours. The Michigan trouble may burn-out but new trouble will likely appear from Oregon/Washington, perhaps Louisiana and perhaps the Carolina's. Texas is a bit shaky as well. The US pandemic is the most hopeful since late February early March at 45K daily cases (7-day MA at 55K at its low) when wave four was in its infancy. Last summer, there were 28K daily new cases as a low with the 7-day MA at 36K at its low. Thus, if daily new cases can drop below the early March lows of 45K-55K range, it would be appropriate to throw confetti, sing songs and drink booze to celebrate. If daily cases then drop below last summer's 36K cases low for the 7-day, there would be a euphoric celebration. If daily cases drop below last summer's low at 28K, it will be time for a ticker tape parade. If daily cases remain elevated and start running above 80K again, we are screwed. There will be no need to ask old people for newspaper to make confetti and instead of celebrating, you will be crying in that beer.
Note Added Friday Morning, 4/23/21, at 4:00 AM EST: India is up to 333K daily new cases. What do you say to that? It is too hard to comprehend the human tragedy. Oxygen sources are depleted. Sadly, doctors and nurses have to play God deciding who lives and dies. Pray that they can handle such a heavy emotional and mental burden going forward. Unfortunately, for all the folks that needed oxygen to stay alive, they die one by one as the oxygen cylinders go empty. Tapping the side of the metal torpedo-shaped cylinder with a ringed finger emits the sad ping sound of an empty container. It is the sound of people dying. Interestingly, the India outbreak spread to Bangladesh and both nations move higher in cases in lock-step. Not anymore. Bangladesh has been improving for the last 2 weeks and the active cases curve is rolling over creating the bell shape (great news). What is Bangladesh doing that India is not? Bangladesh is just as densely-populated as India, perhaps more so, but is only one-eighth the population of its neighbor (166 million versus 1.3 billion in India; China is 1.4 billion people). It's the lockdown. India PM Modi is telling states to avoid lockdowns if possible but Bangladesh went into a strict lockdown on 4/7/21 and now reaps the reward. There are no easy answers. China royally screwed the world. If a nation goes into lockdown to halt the virus spread, the economy collapses and people lose their businesses and livelihoods, but if the country does not go into lockdown, the nation becomes sicker and more loved ones die. The India and Bangladesh outbreak is an excellent case study illustrating this difficult pandemic dilemma and the results of each choice. Malaysia daily cases spike higher for another day to 2.9K cases. Malaysia, are you listening?
Note Added Friday Morning, 4/23/21, at 5:00 AM EST: The CDC, FDA and advisory board will provide a decision on the Johnson & Johnson vaccine in America today. The advisory board will likely recommend that the vaccination program continue with new usage guidelines. The blood clots pose a very small risk and the findings indicate that the benefits outweigh the risks. Europe has reached the same conclusion and has restarted shipments of the J&J vaccine to the nations that paused. The advisory board should vote on the J&J direction ahead today and then the CDC and FDA also must sign out and also provide any guidelines if applicable.
Note Added Friday Morning, 4/23/21, at 11:00 AM EST: It is hard to believe that Article 40 is on tap; the fortieth Coronavirus Chronology article in 13 months. Over a year ago, we all thought that coronavirus, newly dubbed COVID-19 at the time, was supposed to be a 2-week affair. No such luck. 40 articles later and counting. The writings serve as a real-time history of the COVID-19 pandemic so they cannot stop now. One year ago, former President Trump lied about the severity of the virus, by his own admission, using the excuse that he wanted to shield the American people from the truth so they would not panic. Thanks for nothing. Talk about having zero confidence in the American people. There was also the big mask lie in the beginning where instead of Americans being told that the N95 masks are in short supply and we need to rally together to make sure the healthcare workers have these masks, we were told masks do not help. The authorities spread this lie hoping it would discourage people from buying the masks so the hospitals could purchase the remaining supplies. Isn't it sickening that once again there was little, actually no, trust, placed in the American people. It is easy to understand why the country is in turmoil. Leaders lead by always being straight with the people. If you are they will follow you, if you lie to them, you will never be trusted again. The pandemic started on lies, deceit and chaos one year ago and creates the ongoing virus and variant mess 15 months later. Instead of the country rallying for a noble cause, and proudly displaying an 'espirit de corps in America', everyone was deceived. Now people question every comment from the doctors, scientists and institutions. Trust is destroyed so everything is suspect and needs to be questioned and scrutinized. When a loved one or friend breaks trust, that is devastating, and it is something that takes a long time to regain, if it can be regained. Here comes the decision on Johnny John's vaccine. Good timing. It can be sorted out in Article 40 along with new charts. China's coronavirus stink lingers across the world.
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