By K E Stone (Keystone)
The United States of America is in a fourth wave. Cases are
rising in 38 US states and the active cases curves are rising in 31 of those
states. Only a dozen states are treading water but most of their active
cases charts are flat rather than dropping off sharply to form the bell shape that signals an end to the pandemic. The news is not good so
let’s start with the charts.
The US daily new cases chart is shown above. The US reports
70K daily new cases yesterday above the 7-day MA trend line at 66K. This is not
good since it further confirms the uptrend and new fourth wave. On the plus
side, the Friday data is typically strong and the 70K cases are below the prior
day’s 77K (4/1/21). A number around 80K or more would have been expected.
The pop in daily cases occurs after the St Patrick’s Day
holiday which is a big socializing and drinking day where people lose
inhibitions and do things that coronavirus loves. Spring breaks also lead to
more cases but Florida and elsewhere put the kibosh on the fun with curfews.
This Easter weekend and the increased traveling will no doubt lead to more
daily new cases.
The 7-day MA trend line is clearly sloping higher confirming
the ongoing uptrend. As long as the daily new cases are above 66K, the fourth
wave will continue expanding. For the 3-day MA (you will have to check that box
and graphic on Worldometer’s site), there are now 4 higher highs and 3 higher
lows in play confirming the uptrend. The US is in wave four, plain and simple.
The US active cases curve is shown above. It is now moving sideways
and flatter than a newlywed’s soufflé. The last three numbers are 6.929 million
active cases, 6.924 and 6.921 million. See how the number sequence is
decreasing reflecting the ever so slight downward bias? If the active cases
report at 6.922 million or higher any day ahead say goodnight. If the active
cases curve curls higher, that is major trouble since it takes time to run its
course, flatten out, then begin rolling over again.
California’s active cases curve is shown above which is now
curling higher. This is important because the California curve has a massive
impact on the US active cases curve. As California goes, so goes the US.
California’s active cases flatlined at the 1.66 million level from 3/1/21 to
3/8/21 but now the active cases are at 1.671 million and climbing.
The US active cases chart targets the end of April for when
the curve will flatten-out and roll over (based on the Keystone Model explained
below), however, with the daily new cases on the rise, the target date will
likely be pushed forward into early May. The hope is for the blue dashed line
to point the way forward but that is not likely. The red path is more likely
with the variants wreaking havoc. The variants are in the lead in the
variant/vaccine race and the bad guys are starting to run away with it.
It is hoped that herd immunity is achieved by Labor Day,
9/6/21, since the new flu and covid season begins which may require new
vaccinations and concerns. Medical folks would like to have a clean slate as Fall begins. The vaccine demand will come into play in April and May as a lot
of vaccine will be available but millions of US citizens will either be hiding
under the bed afraid to get a shot, or, outright refusing to be vaccinated. It
will be interesting as the vaccinated people perhaps pressure unvaccinated
folks. More reasons for the country to become divided as crony capitalism falters.
The US death chart is shown above. 1,001 people died yesterday
above the 7-day MA at 862 deaths. The 7-day MA is sloping lower which is great
but we all know the drill. A new wave begins with a rise in daily new cases. After
a couple weeks, hospitalizations increase and then a week or two after that,
people die.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)
provides the mortality charts with the US on target for 609K deaths by 7/1/21.
The worst cases scenario is 651K dead and sadly, considering the charts and
data, the deaths will likely be closer to 651K than 609K come summertime.
The CDC hospitalization data shows clear uptrends for both
hospitalizations and new hospital admissions. A couple days ago, the latter was
trending higher but not the former now both are heading higher which is more
bad news. The fourth wave is hitting the US.
Other daily new cases charts are shown above including
Minnesota, USA, and the Philippines, which is probably the worst nation on
earth with covid, as well as Turkey and Ukraine. Ethiopia is also shown and
Bangladesh for good measure. Things are not looking good folks. Poland is another
country hurting right now. Ditto Hungary. The Minnesota chart is shown as an example of many
US state charts that have clearly started a new wave higher.
As highlighted in this article’s title above, as per the CDCvaccine map appearing in The New York Times, over 100 million Americans have
received at least one dose of vaccine; 104.2 million to be exact. That is
something to hang your hat on. 60 million people are fully vaccinated. 208
million doses are delivered and 162 million are shots in arms.
As per Keystone’s prior math which was explained simply, 240
million Americans need to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity. The number
accounts for people not showing up for second shots. Thus, 60 million people
are vaccinated which is 18% of the population (of 330 million) about 1 in 5 people. You can also hang
your hat on that positive news. 44 million (104-60) have one shot
of vaccine so if we simply say half of them would be fully vaccinated for
estimation purposes that is 22 million so let’s say about 82 million (60+22) Americans
are vaccinated.
240 million minus 82 is 158 million. The other key to herd
immunity is how many Americans have contracted covid and have natural
immunities. The asymptomatic nature of the disease makes this quite an
interesting question to ponder. Some scientists and doctors think far more
people have been sick with coronavirus than anyone realizes. If so, herd immunity
will come far easier.
If about 15% of the US population has natural antibodies, 50
million Americans, and taking that away from the 158 million is 108 million (about 10% of Americans have contracted covid as per data and testing so the 15% tacks on another 5% for estimation purposes). The US
vaccination rate is tagging 4 million doses per day for the last couple days.
Congratulations to all involved. It cannot be easy on the healthcare workers dealing with the China Flu for 14 months with no end in sight. The average dose rate is 3.07 million per day
call it 3.1.
Thus, if the US needs another 108 million people vaccinated
to reach herd immunity, that is roughly 216 million vaccine doses since
Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna are 2-shot vaccines. However, the J&J 1-dose
vaccine is in the mix as well so let’s call it 200 million vaccine doses needed
to reach herd immunity. At 3.1 million doses per day, that is 65 days (200/3.1).
That is 6/7/21 early June. But, do not get too excited because vaccine
hesitancy is going to come into play as well as logistics.
There are millions of seniors in poor rural communities and inner cities that will need the vaccines to come to them and President Biden has allotted money approved by Congress to facilitate mobile units and other measures to get people vaccinated. The cream off the top of the covid latte is already gone. All those white gal’s 50 years old and older are well-versed on using computers since they are on Mombook (Facebook) a few hours per day. The adult and mature white ladies are vaccinated more than any other group. Part of this is also due to a lot of the healthcare workers in that demographic as well.
Many of the disadvantaged folks, and obviously we are talking broadly in stereotypical terms, do not own computers and do not have the wherewithal to seek out the vaccines. Thus, the easy vaccinations are in the bag, or will be over the next week or three when the shots are available to all age groups everywhere, and then each day after that will become harder to vaccinate folks. The 6/7/21 date may extend a month or more? to allot for the logistics and vaccine hesitancy issues.
May and June will be an interesting period with vaccine hesitancy, skepticism and vaccine passports the central theme. The privileged wealthy class has access to the best medical care. The elite class, and upper middle class sycophants that serve them, are in favor of vaccine passports since they will be vaccinated and want to resume their jet-setting lives and attend events and concerts. Vaccine passports will only further separate the classes in America exacerbating the record 50-year division between rich and poor and hastening the arrival of the coming class war. We live in interesting times.
Now what if more people have been sick with the China Flu
than realized? Let’s say 30% of the US population has natural antibodies, 100
million Americans, and taking that away from the 158 million is 58 million.
Doubling that for doses is 116 million doses but paring it back a touch since
some shots are J&J, that would be 100 million doses needed. At 3.1 million doses
per day rate, that is 32 days (100/3.1). That is 5/5/21 early May!! Wow. No
wonder some docs think herd immunity is coming faster. They believe that more
people have been sick with covid than realized. Even with the hesitancy and logistics
issues, and vaccinating children, adding a month or two still beats the Labor
Day deadline.
All that rosy talk aside, the fourth wave is underway. This
means the variants are winning the race against vaccines. Obviously, this can blow a hole in the
vaccine program. Healthcare workers are busy inoculating arms but if the fourth
wave goes parabolic, that will cut back the vaccine shots and testing will have to be ramped
up. So the path to herd immunity can have two major pitfalls; the variants and
the potential failure to vaccinate enough folks before the end of summer.
Pay attention to that 3.07 million doses per day vaccination rate. It must be maintained at this pace and even higher to 4 million per day every day if the US wants to have a chance against the fourth wave now expanding. If you see the dose rate number drop sub 3 and leak lower to 2.5 and even 2.0 million doses per day, that will tell you that there are difficulties in getting shots to the people in remote or inner city locations. Starting probably in about 3 weeks, the shot-giver's will have to go to the people rather than the people coming to them at the vaccination sites.
More of the blood clot problems are appearing with the
AstraZeneca vaccine causing countries to suggest its use for those 60 years and
older (humorously, here, you are old, you take it). Millions of doses have been administered
compared to the number of blood clot cases, however, no one wants to be that
one case.
Vaccine demand continues to outstrip supply. People want the
vaccine believing it is their ticket to freedom. The rubber meets the road when
the demand drops off and doctors and nurses are standing around, syringes in
hand, but no one willing to roll up their sleeves. Vaccine hesitancy, or
skepticism as it is called across the pond, is respected by the medical
community and they are winning folks over by calmly answering their questions
and addressing their concerns.
There are several million folks, perhaps as much as 20% of
the US population, about 66 million people, unwilling to take a vaccine. This
will throw a wrench into the works for herd immunity. President Biden said
he would not force vaccines on people so we will see if he is true to his word. The
vaccines are in use under an emergency order not under a normal use order. Any
doctor worth his or her weight will tell you that we will not be 100% sure of
the side effects and reactions from the vaccines, and what they do, or do not
do, to the human body, for 10 years. It is a simple fact. For those that do not
plan to get vaccinated, like this writer, it is a hard sell.
The COVID-19 pandemic remains a mess considering the fourth
wave is now in progress. The virus may choose to go away when it feels like
going away and not one minute sooner. Past viruses have flittered away on their
own after about 18 months which would be the May-July time frame. Despite all
our human endeavors, covid may go away one day without notice. We can only
hope.
The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases
in the world at 31.3 million. Brazil has 12.9 million cases, India (12.4),
France (4.7), Russia (4.6 million), UK (4.4), Italy (3.6), Turkey (3.4), Spain (3.3), Germany (2.9), Colombia (2.4), Poland
(2.4), Argentina (2.4), Mexico (2.2), Iran (1.9), Ukraine (1.7), Peru (1.6), South
Africa (1.55), Czechia (1.55), Indonesia (1.53), Netherlands (1.3), Chile (1.0),
Canada (991K), Romania (965K), Belgium (893K), Iraq (863K), Israel (834K),
Portugal (823K), Sweden (813K), Philippines (784K), Pakistan (683K), Hungary (679K),
Bangladesh (625K), Jordan (623K), Serbia (610K), Switzerland (605K) and Austria
(556K) rounding out the list of 37 nations above 500K cases. Morocco will be
added next time as the 38th. The world is trending in a bad direction.
As highlighted in the updates in Article 37, France takes a
tragic turn for the worse leapfrogging Russia to take the number 4 position in
total coronavirus cases on the planet. Where’s Macron? Bueller? Macron?
Bueller? Macron is screwing-up his election hopes repeating the Donnie Trump
playbook at mishandling the pandemic.
Cases in Italy escalate. Turkey is in a bad way leapfrogging
Spain. Poland is another one descending into covid Hell leapfrogging both
Argentina and Mexico. Peru worsens dramatically jumping over South Africa and
Czechia. Chile sadly joins the 1 million total cases club an organization where
no one wants to be a member. Canada and Romania will join the 1 million dubious
club this week. Iraq’s troubles accelerate after it leapfrogs Israel and
Portugal.
Dear Lord. Over the last 10 days, Philippines total COVID-19
cases catapult from 684K to 784K!! That is a 100K add in only a week and a half!!
Perhaps some of it is statistical data catch-up but in reality, Philippines is
covid Hell on Earth. Cases jump large in Pakistan and Hungary. Ditto Bangladesh
that leaps over Switzerland.
The China Flu has infected 131 million people worldwide. The
pandemic, originating in China’s bioweapon laboratories in Wuhan, has killed 2.85
million people on earth. It is bioterrorism in real-time. Fortunately, over 104
million global citizens have recovered from coronavirus. 80% (104/131) of the
people that become infected with COVID-19 recover in a reasonable time frame.
Sadly, this percentage is down 1% after improving over the
last 4 to 6 weeks, up about 7 percentage points, about 1% per week; this trend is
over. Tragically, an 80% recovery rate may be the best hope? This means that 1
in 5 people contracting covid around the world will have lingering health
issues requiring advice and treatment from doctors and physician’s assistants for many months forward.
And some of them will die. China screwed the world. They will have to answer
for their nefarious deed.
Worldwide, 2.2% (2.85/131) of the people that are infected
with covid die. This number is unfortunately sticky (remaining steady at this
level) week after week. 1 in every 46 people that are infected with
COVID-19 around the world, will die, and this number has not changed over the
last six weeks. This is not good. Generally speaking, around the world, the
mortality rate from covid is at an impasse and cannot be driven lower (for
now).
1.7% (131/7670) of the world’s population of 7.67 billion
people have been infected with coronavirus; 1 in every 58 people on earth. This
number was flat at 1.6% for many weeks but now ticks higher. Sadly, the
variants are the reason for the uptick in the global infection rate.
Coronavirus was released by the CCP (China’s Communist Party), either intentionally or accidentally, from one of its two secretive bioweapons laboratories in Wuhan, China (the press and WHO only visit one lab; the communists deny the existence of the second lab). China, the CCP, is developing pathogens that target specific ethnic markers (enabling the murderous acts of eliminating all non-Chinese ethnicities) and COVID-19 may be an experiment gone amuck.
China may have also been developing covid to use in Hong
Kong to destroy democracy; which worked. Post-pandemic, Hong Kong is now just
another communist city. The huge COVID-19 outbreak in Philippines threatens Taiwan since the filthy CCP will want to use the same Hong Kong playbook (infecting Taiwan and using covid as an excuse to occupy the independent island nation taking control).
Bioterrorism is here to stay. Whoever develops a bug, and
vaccine, and inoculates their population with the vaccine, and then sends the
bug far and wide to all corners of the world, can, and will, own the earth.
In the United States, 31.3 million people are infected with
covid. 568K Americans are dead. 23.8 million Americans have recovered from
covid. This equates to 76% (23.8/31.3) of US citizens recovering after becoming
infected with COVID-19. In other words, 3 out of every 4 Americans that
contract the Wuhan Flu recover, which is a nice improvement from 2 out of every
3 citizens last year up to about a month ago. The number improves by 1% over
the last 10 days. Young people are becoming more infected these days but
perhaps they bounce back quicker?
America’s recover rate of 76% is not as good as the world’s
average at 80% but it is getting close enough to call it comparable. The
world’s recovery rate is stalling at 80% as the USA incrementally improves
towards that number. America lags the world in part due to the obesity problem
in America which leads to heart and lung issues, and diseases such as diabetes,
that place the person at a disadvantage once they catch covid.
Recent reports indicate that Americans have gained a couple
pounds per month during the pandemic due to sitting at home eating snacks. Americans
need to do push-ups. Push yourself up away from the dinner table! Also, instead
of walking around in Nike and Under Armour clothes, work out in them! 1 in 5
Americans that have contracted coronavirus have lingering effects, some die.
In the US, 1.8% (568/31316) of the people infected with COVID-19 die and this number remains sticky like the global death number. Interestingly, the recovery rates were improving in the US and around the world but may be stalling right now and the mortality rates are not improving at all. The death rates sustain themselves day after day week after week. The global and US death rates have been steady for a couple months. We need them to go down!
The 1.8%
equates to 1 in every 55 US citizens that are infected with coronavirus will
die. The doctors say the key to the vaccines is stopping deaths but the
statistics clearly show that this is not working as yet.
9.4% (31/330) of the American population of 330 million
people have been infected with covid. 1 in every 11 Americans have been
stricken with coronavirus a terrible number and stunning statistic. The minority
communities are impacted disproportionately since they tend to live in higher-populated
areas. Thus, the row house area of an inner city or the projects (groups of
multi-story housing units cramped together) may be realizing about 1 in 5
people they know becoming sick while the white upper-class neighborhoods and
McMansionville’s may only be realizing about 1 in 20 or 1 in 30 becoming sick.
People need to learn and display empathy and compassion for
one another again but the current more narcissistic-style societal behavior is
actually what is expected at the end of a multi-decade period a la the
Kondratiev wave cycle.
The United States has 24% (31.3/131) of the COVID-19 cases
in the world. 1 in 4 people that become infected with covid on planet earth are
Americans. The US accounts for 20% (568/2850) of the China Flu deaths in the
world. 1 in 5 people that die from COVID-19 in the world are Americans. China
knows how to kill us off efficiently.
To keep your immune system strong which will help prevent or
minimize a covid infection, consider taking zinc and vitamin D-3, A and C. Also
turmeric. All of these should be part of a daily regimen regardless of coronavirus.
As always, check with doc before mapping-out any vitamin and supplement
program.
Diet is also a key to battling coronavirus and the Asian
folks that prefer non-gluten food are surviving covid better. If you want the
best possible immune system, eat like an Asian; beans, squash, seaweed, rice,
sweet potatoes and fish. The nutrients and minerals will be pumping through
your body making you feel like a million dollars but alas, America likes gluten
foods, the more the merrier, pasta, bread, wheat and oat products, and beer,
cake, and even pie for their pie-holes. You are what you eat. It is obvious that
the Asian-style diet will keep the immune system in great shape as evidenced by
the coronavirus data, but who has the will power? Pass the potato chips. Clutch
the chest.
The best virus prevention measure is to simply stay as far
away as possible from people. If you practice this ‘extreme social distancing’
and choose to get the vaccine, you will be in great shape and not have to worry
about contracting COVID-19. The Pfizer and Moderna data are showing 80%
effectiveness after the first shot and maintaining over 90% effectiveness
after the second shot.
The UK’s plan of vaccinating the public with one shot in
mass and not worrying about the second shot in 3 to 4 weeks, has proven
successful, so far. The second shots are followed up a few weeks later as
vaccine is made available. The US is sticking with the drug trial results that
use 2 shots for each patient within the 3 or 4-week window. US cases are rising.
The second-guesser’s will be coming out of the woodwork and they will start
smacking around the Fauci piñata again saying we should have followed the UK
example.
The medical people are figuring this pandemic out in
real-time but the impatient public always expects answers immediately. All you
can do in some instances is make your best decision and proceed. If it does not
work, stop, reassess, try a new direction, and let the public know that the
first plan did not work and explain why. Nowadays, politicians and bigshots
think they always have to be correct or they will lose an election, or their
jobs, or their stature they hold so dear, but in reality, when you are a
confident leader, this is exactly what you do not do. Always level with people
and they will follow you. Be a leader. Do not be a bull-sh*tter.
The variants remain a major worry including the UK B117, South
Africa B1351, Brazil P1 and the American Flu strains New York B1526 and
California B1427/B1429. The vaccines are effective against the UK strain but
less-so for the South Africa strain which is also a more deadly strain. Sadly,
more ugly variants are surfacing in Brazil and India. 13.1K variant cases are
identified in the United States and that is with a testing program operating at
lower capacity.
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model,
the Keystone Model for short, is a simple approach to predicting when the
active cases chart curves will flatten-out and roll-over lower which represents
the maximum stress on the medical system and healthcare workers, followed by better
days ahead.
The Keystone Model uses the peak in the daily new cases to
forecast the peak and flattening of the active cases curve. The ‘flattening of
the curve’ only pertains to the active cases chart. For authoritarian and
communist nations where the populations must do what they are told or they
receive a bullet in their heads, and for smaller nations, and many Asian
nations where citizens follow government rules without questioning authority, the
active cases curve will peak, on average, 11 days after the peak in new cases.
China, Singapore, Japan and South Korea are in this group.
Also New Zealand and Australia since the populations are scattered across the
countryside. Several Middle East nations are under authoritarian rule and the
peaks in the new cases are quickly followed by the peak in the active cases
chart.
For the Western countries, such as the US and European
nations, the so-called free societies, the active cases curve will peak, on
average, 28 days after the peak in new cases (it takes 17 days longer, about 2
weeks longer, for a free society to tamp down a virus wave than a communist or
authoritarian state).
During the last couple months, no doubt as a result of the
medical community becoming better at fighting coronavirus over the last year,
this 28-day period has been reduced by 2 to 4 days. Nothing to get too excited
about but every little bit helps. In the lists below for countries and US
states, any of the projections that target 28 days may occur a tad bit sooner
say 2 or 3 days sooner. The Keystone Model will not be adjusted since it should
remain consistent for the pandemic data throughout the entire event, which
drags on and on. The peak in the active cases bell curve may occur a day or
three in front of the target date.
The Keystone Model has a great track record over the last
year in predicting when the active cases curve flattens and the bell shape
begins to appear to ring-in the end to the pandemic. Healthcare workers cannot
catch a break until the active cases curve flattens and rolls-over forming the
bell shape. That is when the patient load substantially declines.
The peak in the daily new cases is easily identified by the
bar charts provided by Worldometer and Johns-Hopkins. You see these daily new
cases bar charts on television news channels. The bar charts typically show the
7-day moving average (MA) line which is a smoothing mechanism that helps you
identify the trend of the data.
The Keystone Model considers any subsequent high number of
daily cases occurring after the peak high to be the new peak high day, if it is
within 8% of the peak high on the bar chart. Is that clear as mud? If the daily
new cases are within 8% of the peak high, that day becomes the peak new case
date from which the 11 or 28-day period begins. This is why the daily new case
peak dates in the lists below may be a few days after the peak high that you
see in the bar chart.
For example, the US peak in daily new cases for wave four is 77K on 3/26/21. Taking away 8% is 71K so any daily cases that are above 71K would be a new peak high for daily new cases. Yesterday, Friday, 4/2/21, is 70K cases not above the 8% leeway so the 77K on 4/1/21 is the current peak in daily new cases. This will likely change in the days ahead as cases escalate (target dates will get pushed forward).
Based off the
4/1/21 peak in daily new cases, adding 28 days, is a target date of 4/29/21 for
the active cases curve to flatten and roll over to form the bell shape, and, if
this happens a couple days sooner, call it the last week of this month for the
active cases curve to flatten (as long as the daily new cases do not rise above
71K; if so, then use that new peak daily case date to add 28 days to forecast
when the active cases curve will flatten).
An update for The Keystone Model is provided since another
10-day period passes and more data and information become available to push the
story forward.
This is Article 38 in the Coronavirus Chronology that provides
real-time information for historians, teachers, students, journalists, economists,
market participants, corporate executives, financial managers, Wall Street, doctors,
nurses, medical personnel, first responders, researchers, public officials,
news organizations, traders, investors and politicians studying the COVID-19
pandemic both domestically (USA) and internationally. This thirty-eighth article
is published on Saturday, 4/3/21.
The coronavirus series of articles are the only real-time
source of information available continuously chronicling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic
during 2020 and 2021. Readers live and breathe the pandemic, the worst in a century,
as it occurs in real-time, experiencing the daily virus zeitgeist, good or bad,
devoid of political correctness. This is not revisionist history-telling. It is
the raw pandemic truth and human emotion occurring, recorded and chronicled in
real time. Feel the wind in your hair as the pandemic rages forward. Much of it
is not pretty because it is real.
All 38 articles are archived on The Keystone Speculator blog.
The articles will be published as a complete set in the future via Amazon
called the Coronavirus Chronology; the pandemic bible. That is, if the virus
ever ends. The last few articles are linked below if you want to review the COVID-19
saga over the last month.
The Worldometer web site tracks the coronavirus (COVID-19) around
the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus series of
articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. The
Worldometer data and Johns-Hopkins data track each other well with the
Worldometer data typically ahead of the Johns-Hopkins data by a few days. The
COVID Tracking Project is another excellent source of information and data
available for those wanting to study and understand the virus in more detail although
the project has halted its data collection in real-time and now serves as an
archive.
The worst countries with coronavirus outbreaks are on the
list below. The peaks in daily new cases are shown and the projected peaks in
active cases based on the Keystone Model. The peak and flattening of the active
cases curve represent the maximum stress on healthcare workers. The pandemic is
not under control until the active cases curve flattens and rolls over forming
the bell shape.
The pandemic is smacking the nations at the bottom of the
list the hardest since they are reporting the largest spikes in daily new cases
occurring in real-time. Their active cases charts will take the most time to
roll over.
Countries such as New Zealand, Australia and Singapore are
the best examples on handling the pandemic properly. Japan beat back the third
wave but wave four is in progress now as the Olympics approach this summer.
There is a nasty outbreak occurring in Japan right now. Peru had improved a couple
weeks ago now much worse with daily new cases the highest ever. Chile is in
disastrous shape.
Argentina takes a terrible turn for the worse with daily
cases jumping higher. President Fernandez contracts covid but the funny part,
or not so funny, is that he received Russia’s Sputnik vaccine on 1/21/21. What
does that tell you? Humorously, dirtbag Dictator Putin is probably selling
saline solution to everyone like a snake oil salesman from the back of a carnival wagon.
All of the countries below worsened over the last 10 days. Brazil’s
data is horrible with daily cases and deaths spiking wildly higher. The deaths
in Brazil are out of hand due to the lack of oxygen supplies for patients. Brazil has a chance to
flatten the active cases curve this coming week. Graves are dug 24/7 in Brazil.
Loved ones are buried in the middle of the night as families weep, holding each
other, kneeling in mud. China, the CCP, has created a disastrous crime against humanity.
Czechia is taken off the bad list as its active cases curve
rolls over lower. Czechia’s active cases peaked on 3/15/21 after the daily new
cases peaked on 3/3/21 a 12-day difference verifying the Keystone Model once
again which uses the 11-day authoritarian-style time period for forecasting
this nation.
France is in terrible shape with daily new cases printing at third wave highs which means the active cases curve will not flatten and roll over until the end of the month. April will be an ugly month for France. There will be no joy with wine, baguette and cigarettes, instead, misery will be your company.
While France is sinking in the covid quagmire, Italy may be able to
flatten and roll its active cases curve over which is very hopeful news for the
current European outbreak. For Italy, the peak date of daily new cases on 3/19/21 holds so
the active cases curve is projected to flatten the middle of April, not this
week but next, so hang in their Italians. Stay at home and avoid the pasta
parties.
Germany reports almost 24K daily new cases on 3/3/21 so the
active cases curve will probably not flatten until the end of the month like
France. Germany and France are in lockdown this weekend. Belgium remains unable
to roll its active cases curve over and crosses the 23K deaths grim milestone.
Poland is in shambles with deaths about to cross 55K and some day’s deaths are
above 600 bodies. Poland’s daily new cases continue rising. It is in terrible
shape.
Moldova is removed from the bad list below since its active
cases chart rolls over but the western Asia nation (between Ukraine and
Romania) crosses the grim 5K deaths milestone. Ukraine’s daily new cases and
deaths spike to record highs for the pandemic. Ukraine is the COVID-19 punching
bag. No matter how hard the country tries to get out from covid, they are
pummeled back into China Flu submission. You have to feel bad for Ukraine and
Poland. Perhaps Europe, despite its problems, and the United States can help
them. People never forget someone that helped them when they most needed it.
Turkey is a dead duck as daily new cases spike to 42.3K the
highest ever. Deaths are also setting records the most for this current wave.
Dirtbag Dictator Erdogan has his hands full. Turkey reports 3.4 million total
coronavirus cases which is the eighth worst nation on earth and quickly
deteriorating. Iran crosses the tragic 63K deaths milestone. Qatar takes a turn
for the worse with daily new cases spiking higher.
Ethiopia is in terrible shape with cases going parabolic (see chart above). Kenya
is in dire straits handling the same problem as Brazil with oxygen supplies.
Kenya is reporting the highest daily new cases ever. Togo is in bad shape with
daily cases going parabolic. The outbreaks in Africa and South America are very
concerning. Keystone has highlighted the correlation between pig herds, the
outbreaks of African Swine Flu (ASF) and COVID-19 outbreaks that are appearing
in the same locations many at the same time.
India is a tragedy with the daily deaths the highest since October. The pandemic is spinning out of control with 89K daily new cases yesterday the highest since September! India’s active cases curve has gone parabolic in this nation of 1.4 billion people. Bangladesh is in bad shape so it is obvious that the new double mutation E484Q/L452R from India is starting to wreak horrific havoc. It would be concerning if the strain appears in the US.
The US is partying like its 1999, as Prince would sing, but April will not be the happy month
that many expect. The US active cases chart will likely not roll over until the
last week of the month. Hospitalizations should rise steadily and the deaths should begin ramping higher. Young people are becoming infected but perhaps their
recovery rates will be faster and mortality rate far lower than the last year’s
numbers. Canada crosses the 23K deaths grim milestone.
The Philippines is in horrendous shape and perhaps the worst
nation on earth with covid infections. The close proximity to Taiwan is
worrisome because if the out-of-control outbreak infects the island (that does
not want to be under the mainland’s CCP rule), the Taiwanese will panic that China
will invade under the guise of a humanitarian effort like the filthy CCP did to
Hong Kong. The Philippines should watch who they decide to climb into bed with
since a communist will slit your throat in the middle of the night. America is the friend of the Philippines.
Russia and the UK are hanging in there trying to avoid a new outbreak. The UK did a good job at tamping down the virus and keeping it in check. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson plans to announce new covid guidelines for the nation in a couple days. Brit's are anxious to get out and about since the vaccination program of inoculating as many people as possible with one shot as fast as possible, is successful.
Russia remains a mess and just crossing the grim 100K deaths milestone.
Spain’s daily new cases are rising and a new wave appears to be starting.
Portugal is also seeing a small bump higher in cases. That damn covid is
contagious as Hell; it will not go away. Like a bad dream, it keeps coming
back. Like your fingers stuck in fly paper; you cannot break free. The covid monkey is on everyone's back.
The following nations are listed from bad to worse with
ongoing coronavirus outbreak waves in progress;
Ireland (Third Wave) (data is
suspect probably underreporting daily new cases)
1/8/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever) (spike 3/21/21)
2/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (curve continues higher)
3/5/21 New Case Peak Date
3/16/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (may have peaked 3/26/21 give it a few days to make
sure; the active cases curve is dead flat since 3/12/21)
3/10/21 New Case Peak Date
3/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (curve continues higher)
3/10/21 New Case Peak Date
3/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (curve continues higher)
3/12/21 New Case Peak Date (new
cases remain steady and robust)
4/9/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
3/19/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of third wave)
4/16/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
3/21/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
4/18/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
3/24/21 New Case Peak Date
4/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (chart may have peaked 3/26/21 but give it a few days)
3/24/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
4/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/25/21 New Case Peak Date (second
highest new cases ever)
4/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/25/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for third wave)
4/22/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
3/26/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of third wave)
4/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/27/21
New Case Peak Date (highest new cases of fifth wave)
4/24/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
3/28/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of third wave)
4/8/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/30/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever)
4/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/30/21 New Case Peak Date (daily
cases are greatly elevated)
4/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/30/21 New Case Peak Date
4/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/31/21 New Case Peak Date
4/11/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/31/21 New Case Peak Date
4/11/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/31/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
4/11/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
3/31/21 New Case Peak Date
4/28/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
3/31/21 New Case Peak Date
4/28/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
4/1/21 New Case Peak Date
4/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/1/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases of third wave)
4/12/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/1/21 New Case Peak Date
4/12/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/1/21 New Case Peak Date (second
highest new cases ever)
4/12/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/1/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
4/29/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
4/1/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases of third wave)
4/29/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
4/1/21 New Case Peak Date
4/29/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
4/1/21 New Case Peak Date
4/29/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
4/2/21 New Case Peak Date
4/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/2/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases of second wave)
4/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/2/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases of third wave)
4/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/2/21 New Case Peak Date
4/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/2/21 New Case Peak Date
4/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/2/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases ever)
4/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/2/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
4/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/2/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases of fourth wave)
4/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/2/21 New Case Peak Date
4/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
4/2/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases of third wave)
4/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
4/2/21 New Case Peak Date
4/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
4/2/21 New Case Peak Date
4/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
4/2/21 New Case Peak Date
4/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
4/2/21 New Case Peak Date
4/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
4/2/21 New Case Peak Date
4/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
4/2/21 New Case Peak Date
4/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
Central and eastern Europe, western Asia, Middle East, Africa, South America especially Brazil, Southeast Asia especially India, and Philippines are the worst covid hotspots in the world. The US is now in a fourth wave and Canada is in bad shape. It is sad to once again see the USA listed on the bad list above.
As far as Europe goes, however, all those target dates for flattening the active cases curve and rolling it over are from 4/6/21 through 4/30/21. Thus, if Europe can really bear down, improvements will be noticeable in a couple weeks, mid-month, Italy should improve, then by the end of the month France and Germany will follow, and the outbreak should start to appear in the rearview mirror as May Day arrives. The daily new cases must be kept at bay.
Next focusing on the US, the troubled states are highlighted
below with their projections on when the active cases curve will peak-out (max
strain on healthcare system) as per the Keystone Model. The US states below have
failed to flatten the active cases bell curve or they had successfully
flattened the curve only to suffer a new wave higher again.
The vaccination program is helping. Folks following masking
and social distancing guidelines are also helping. The warmer weather will also
help defeat the virus. On the bad side, the variants are spreading and if they
follow the lead of other nations, a parabolic rise in US cases is on tap. St
Patrick’s Day celebrations led to elevated cases as well as spring break
festivities. Authorities put the kibosh on the spring break revelers which may
help keep daily cases at bay.
States are reopening their economies superfast and people
are partying on the Easter weekend. The pandemic fatigue is causing the public
to become lax over the safety guidelines so a rise in daily chases appears
inevitable. Traveling in March is near pre-pandemic levels so that is lots of
people moving to and fro spreading the virus.
South Carolina (Third Wave) (data
is suspect; probably an underreporting of daily cases)
1/16/21 New Case Peak Date (daily
cases starting to creep higher)
2/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher so daily case numbers likely wrong)
3/18/21 New Case Peak Date (recent
cases becoming elevated)
4/15/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
3/25/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of third wave)
4/22/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
3/26/21 New Case Peak Date
4/23/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
3/26/21 New Case Peak Date
4/23/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
3/27/21 New Case Peak Date
4/24/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
3/27/21 New Case Peak Date
4/24/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
3/29/21 New Case Peak Date
4/26/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
3/29/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases in 7 weeks)
4/26/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
3/30/21 New Case Peak Date
4/27/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
3/31/21 New Case Peak Date
4/28/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/1/21 New Case Peak Date
4/29/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/1/21 New Case Peak Date
4/29/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/1/21 New Case Peak Date
4/29/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/1/21 New Case Peak Date
4/29/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/1/21 New Case Peak Date
4/29/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/1/21
New Case Peak Date (highest cases for the fourth wave)
4/29/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
4/1/21
New Case Peak Date (highest cases for the fourth wave)
4/29/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
4/1/21
New Case Peak Date
4/29/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date (active cases curve oddly going down so this
would be expected to curl higher; the data may be problematic)
4/1/21
New Case Peak Date (highest cases for the third wave)
4/29/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
4/1/21
New Case Peak Date (highest cases for the third wave)
4/29/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
4/2/21
New Case Peak Date
4/30/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
4/2/21
New Case Peak Date
4/30/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
4/2/21
New Case Peak Date
4/30/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
4/2/21
New Case Peak Date
4/30/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
4/2/21
New Case Peak Date
4/30/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
4/2/21
New Case Peak Date
4/30/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
4/2/21 New Case Peak Date
4/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/2/21 New Case Peak Date
4/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/2/21 New Case Peak Date
4/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (active cases curve oddly going down so this would be expected to curl
higher; the data may be problematic)
4/2/21 New Case Peak Date
4/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
The 31 states are above have started their current outbreak waves with the active cases curves moving higher (sans New York and Florida as noted). The following 7 states are about to begin their next waves and will likely end up on the bad list above next time; Arizona, Texas, Colorado, Oregon, Iowa, Nebraska and Tennessee. Thus, there are 38 of the 50 US states in trouble right now with active cases curves moving higher or a hair away from moving higher with daily cases rising in all these states. This is not good.
The following dozen states are the best at handling the pandemic and are currently doing all right but with everything around them becoming infected, they will likely succumb as well; Georgia, Missouri, Alabama, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Mississippi, Kansas, Wyoming, Montana, Nevada and Utah.
Note that southern cluster of states that are least
impacted, so far, by the variants. Why? What distinguishes that cluster of
states as being more resilient to new infections than other states? What has
not occurred in that cluster of southern states that has occurred in the other
parts of the country over the last month, and why? Is it the covid
restrictions? Are they stricter? Probably not. Perhaps these states are
performing minimal testing?
The thing to keep in mind is that less testing is occurring.
Hospital and other medical personnel are giving vaccinations instead of
performing testing. Thus, the dozen states that look a little better may only
be due to not testing so daily cases are not escalating. Remember King Donnie
Trump saying he wanted to stop or slow testing because then there would be less
cases. It is hilarious. It is like hearing a noise and problem with your car,
but turning up the radio and declaring it fixed. Or turning the stereo up to 11
for the loudest sound a la Spinal Tap.
The CDC releases updated guidelines for the Easter holiday
saying people that have been vaccinated can meet together. CDC Director
Walensky says travel can occur but “not at this time due to the rise in
number of cases.” This is not good. Never tell people something they can do in
the future since they will do it right away. The only thing people heard was
that they are allowed to travel so the car was loaded up and folks head off for fun and
frolic. Yee-haw. A wiser announcement would simply say to maintain current
measures and an announcement will occur after the holiday. Tell them they can
travel then and not before.
Times Square looks like New Year’s Eve after the relaxed travel guidelines. Wall to wall people.
Fortunately, everyone appears to be masked but all those folks are coughing, yelling, singing, picking their noses and breathing on each other. As they say in Brooklyn, “Good
luck wit dat.” This stat just in. 1.6 million people flew yesterday. Wow. That
is pre-pandemic levels. The Easter egg hunt offers COVID-19 as a parting prize.
Dr Megan Ranney appears on CNN and when asked, she defends CDC Director Walensky's comment about "impending doom" a few days ago. Ranney says that patients are landing in the ICU's at the same rate or more as back in February. She decrees, "We will see more cases 2 weeks from now than today." Ranney is correct as the above charts, data and analysis bear out. Dr Walensky no longer has to worry about impending doom arriving because the doom is already here.
Each day the daily new cases continue higher is another nail
in Uncle Sam’s covid coffin. There are 38 US states in covid trouble right now so April
is not going to be a joyous spring party. Instead, it will be the Carrie prom
scene. The US fourth wave is in progress. Plan accordingly. Keystone once again provides the wet blanket for your weekend. No wonder he is never invited to any parties.
Note Added Sunday, 4/4/21, at 6:55 AM EST: Happy Easter and Passover. America reports 66K daily new cases smack-dab on top of the 7-day MA at 66K cases. The US active cases curve is flat moving lower by the tiniest of hairs but most importantly, it has not curled up as yet. That will be terrible if/when it does. Italy's active cases curve moves sideways which is encouraging but daily new cases continue higher in France. Germany, too. Spain sees another jump in daily new cases so a reinfection is occurring in the bull-fighting nation. Brazil and India remain tragedies. On Easter, the world descends into the covid rabbit hole.
Note Added Sunday Evening, 4/4/21, at 7:00 PM EST: Cornell University is requiring all students to be vaccinated to return to school. Moderna begins testing a new vaccine that targets the South Africa B1351 strain.
Note Added Monday, 4/5/21, at 6:55 AM EST: US daily new cases are a low 36K great news. However, a low number would be expected on Sunday and it is Easter so some of the numbers were likely not reported and will play catch-up on Monday and Tuesday. There's that wet blanket again. it is a sliver of a glimmer of hope, however, and hope always springs eternal. The low number will help curl the moving averages downwards or at least flat to stall the advance of the fourth wave but the daily new cases will tell the tale as they are released each day. 270 deaths are reported for the US yesterday a fantastically low number, although it is understood that 270 families are living grief and disbelief this morning, the lowest deaths since the start of the pandemic last March! The US deaths are likely lower due to the combination Sunday and Easter day but we can hope for the best. Perhaps this fourth wave surge that began was due to the St Patrick's Day revelers and the spring break partiers. The spring breaker's were stopped with curfews so that peak of infections may have rippled through. Since it is a weekend, and holiday weekend at all, a few more days of daily cases and deaths will signal if we can at least flatten out or if the infections ramp higher faster.
Note Added Monday, 4/5/21, at 7:05 AM EST: India reports 104K daily new cases yesterday the most of the entire pandemic. Sadly, less than 1% of the Indian population is vaccinated. France reports 61K daily new cases only surpassed by 11/6/20 and 11/7/20. France is in serious trouble. Is a new variant perhaps developing in France? Hopefully, our French friends have a robust genomic testing program. France reports over 96K deaths from covid. The UK drops to 2.3K daily new cases and deaths that are around 50 per day with the last couple days nil. The 1-shot strategy is looking very successful for the Brit's. PM Johnson says free covid tests will be made available and he wants each citizen tested twice per week. Good on him. It looks like he is learning from the Asian nation's playbooks (Asia has been dealing with infectious outbreaks for 3 decades). The UK has 331K active cases. There are 66.6 million people in the UK an interesting number (666). Thus, 0.5% of the population is infected with coronavirus. Bigtime congratulations to the Brit's. A testing, tracking and tracing program is crap unless the country is under 2% or 3% with infections and preferably sub 1% is desired. Obviously, the lower the better since it is fewer people to deal with as the outbreaks are meticulously tracked and snuffed-out. South Korea is good at this. The minute a positive patient is identified, all their contacts are immediately tracked down to stop any further spread. In the sea of miserable news, it is good to see the UK on the right path. A 0.5% infection rate will enable a testing, tracking and tracing program to be successful.
Note Added Monday, 4/5/21, at 7:15 AM EST: In the US, there are states with covid positivity rates running over 5%, some over 10%, and Michigan has a positivity rate of over 15%. A testing and tracking program is useless with these numbers. It is sad after 14 months. America is aimlessly adrift in the covid-infected waters; Uncle Sam sits in the coronavirus boat of despair. No wonder people are saying to Hell with it all and living life again. Some will become sick and die.
Note Added Monday, 4/5/21, at 7:20 AM EST: China is at a 5 million doses per day vaccination rate and pledges to inoculate 40% of the 1.4 billion population (560 million people) by the end of May. That is 57 days and let's say that is 1 shot per person so 560 million shots. This is a rate of 10 million doses per day so they have to double the current rate. If it is a 2-shot deal, then they will have to quadruple their rate to 20 million doses per day. The CCP are filthy liars so they make up these numbers and they will make up the result. Never trust a lying communist.
Note Added Monday, 4/5/21, at 7:30 AM EST: Thailand provides a much-needed boost of confidence for the AstraZeneca vaccine committing to using the beleaguered drug as its main vaccine. J&J takes over operational control of the Emergent BioSolutions plant in Baltimore that had the ingredient mix-up last week ruining 15 million vaccine doses. EBS trades down -1% adding to its -13% crash on Friday. JNJ, called Johnny John by stock traders, trades marginally higher on the news.
Note Added Monday Afternoon, 4/5/21: India's double mutation E484Q/L452R appears in San Francisco, California. This is bad and explains why the California active cases curve chart shown above is starting to curly upwards again. The double mutation also explains the rapid spread of virus across India and Bangladesh. This is scary stuff a mutation of a mutation now smacking the West Coast as the East Coast (Boston) is stabbed with Brazil's P1 as Michigan is beaten with the UK's B117. The variant versus vaccine race continues.
Note Added Monday Evening, 4/5/21: The AP reports that Montana Governor Greg Gianforte tests positive for coronavirus but interestingly, he received a first dose of vaccine only a few days ago. Some Americans, mainly old guys, will comically comment, "Get the shot, get the flu."
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 4/6/21, at 4:56 AM EST: The daily US data has become a ritual. The coming days dictates whether the US wave four turns into a mild surge and the happiness of falling cases resumes, or, the wave begins moving sharply higher perhaps parabolic. The Easter data was light as expected. For Monday, the US reports 57K daily new cases below the 7-day MA at 66K for 2 consecutive days (good). This will help to try and roll the 7-day MA trend line back over to the downside to turn the fourth wave into a minor bump-up in infections. We will know in the coming days as American continues tiptoeing through the covid eggshells hoping for a happy outcome. The 3-day MA for US daily new cases is more optimistic news since it is at 58.1K cases just taking out the prior low at 58.6K cases. It is only by a sliver but good enough to move the trendlines into a sideways posture. The variants were winning over the last couple weeks but the vaccines have now pulled-up into a neck-and-neck position as the competitors race through April. US active cases continues lower but California's active cases curve continues sideways with an upward bias perhaps due to India's E484Q/L452R double mutation. US deaths are 500 souls yesterday below trend which is more good news. America is in suspended animation right now balanced in this surreal world that the virus is on its way out but at the same time fear that the hammer is about to fall.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 4/6/21, at 5:15 AM EST: The CDC says the B117 variant is identified in all 50 states. Younger people are getting sick with covid. The CDC says surfaces only need disinfected after a coronavirus case occurs which is a more relaxed guideline. The CDC believes the risk of coronavirus transmission from surfaces is less than previously thought. The Texas Rangers baseball game opens its stadium to fans many choose not to wear masks or social distance. This will not end well. The stadium is in Arlington, Texas, between Fort Worth and Dallas. Adding 9 days, these hospitals will see a big uptick in patients especially between 4/13/21 and 4/15/21 (middle to late next week). Fauci keeps appearing on television each day spouting about the virus but after 14 months it is sounding like background noise.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 4/6/21, at 5:25 AM EST: Philippines hospitals are buckling. Coronavirus is raging out of control and the fun-filled memories on the white sands of Boracay are long forgotten. There are few tourists in the country now as Filipino's battle for life. North Korea bows out of the Olympics citing coronavirus concerns. Bangladesh is smacked hard with daily new cases running at 7K per day for the last 3 days the worst of the pandemic by double. India's E484Q/L452R double mutation moves east to Bangladesh. Myanmar (previously called Burma) is next in line to the east. It will be unknown how badly the virus hits Burma due to the violence with the military takeover. Nepal is to the north and just crossed 3K total deaths from covid and sadly, daily new cases and the active cases curve is beginning to move higher. That E484Q/L452R is a real bastard. Bhutan is in that neighborhood and sees an up move in infections but this is limited data. Pakistan is about to hit 15K deaths and their outbreak is serious probably with the double mutation moving northwest. Thailand sees a spike in daily new cases. China must be sweating bullets worried that all these southern neighbors will send virus north especially the E484Q/L452R strain. China will lie to the world no matter what happens.
Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 4/6/21: President Biden speaks calling for all states to open up vaccinations to everyone by 4/19/21 (with in 2 weeks). Some states are already operating in this mode while others are using the goofy phases that few understand. Biden wants to simplify the vaccination process and says plenty of vaccine will be available. He tells seniors to get the shot immediately since it will be more difficult in a couple weeks as the vaccines are open to everyone. A troubling Lancet study shows that 34% (1 in 3) of covid patients have long-term symptoms. The lingering effects are called brain disease which are mainly anxiety and mood disorders. The long-hauler's experience brain fog, fatigue and breathing difficulties.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 4/7/21, at 4:00 AM EST: The US reports 62K daily new cases for Tuesday. Easter was the low at 47.5K cases with Monday cases higher and now Tuesday cases are higher than Monday. The 7-day MA is 66K. 906 Americans die yesterday a bump higher perhaps some catch-up due to underreporting around Easter. Michigan and Minnesota are in bad shape with the B117 wreaking havoc. People in their 50's are getting sick as well as teenagers and young adults. Fauci wins the Captain Obvious award for saying the virus is spreading more among children due to team sports (mask-less, yelling, touching) rather than sitting in the classroom (masked, quiet, over 6 feet (1 m) away from each other). Pennsylvania is seeing a rapid uptick in new cases and the University of Pittsburgh (Pitt) has 100 students in isolation due to an outbreak. In news that no one wants to hear, 246 fully-vaccinated people in Michigan have been stricken with coronavirus. These are some of the 5% folks no one talks about when Pfizer and Moderna say their vaccines are 95% effective. Minnesota reports over 3K daily new cases yesterday. Texas crosses the 49K deaths grim milestone with 94 people dying yesterday. Texas will cross 50K dead within 2 weeks. Oh-no. All that big-talking that Texas has been doing may not have a happy ending. Texas daily new cases spike to 4.6K yesterday the most since mid-March. Pride cometh before a fall. Daily new cases are rising in Massachusetts and Boston is getting hit with Brazil's nasty P1. California says its economy will fully reopen, with masks, on 6/15/21 so the date is cast in stone.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 4/7/21, at 5:00 AM EST: A Thailand cabinet member becomes sick and several others are isolating. India's double mutation may be moving farther east into Thailand. Oh my. Brazil reports 4,211 deaths yesterday the deadliest day of the pandemic. Where's Bosonaro? Bueller? Bolsonaro? Bueller? Bolsonaro follows the Trump playbook where he keeps hoping and pretending the pandemic will go away; but it does not without proactive steps. Dear Lord. India reports over 115K daily new cases which is an off the charts record. 631 Indians die yesterday. They are dropping like flies. 400 die in France. Over 400 die in Italy but the boot-shaped nation has a chance of rolling the virus over to the downside if they keep doing what they are doing. Deaths remain elevated but the daily cases are moving lower for several days and Italy's active cases curve is flat currently. Germany urges citizens to maintain vigilance against the virus and resist the full opening of the economy for a few more weeks. Ukraine deaths are setting records. 382 Filipino's die yesterday the deadliest day by almost double. Over 14K Filipino's are dead from covid.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 4/7/21, at 6:00 AM EST: Goldman Sachs lowers India's growth forecast due to the pandemic. AstraZeneca halts its child vaccination study due to the incidence of blood clots in adults (about 50 cases of clots with 7 dying after about 20 million shots administered; a 0.00025% chance which is nil but no one wants to be that one). It is unknown if the clots are related to the vaccine and if so by what mechanism.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 4/7/21, at 6:30 AM EST: Biden repeats his goal of 200 million shots within his first 100 days in office which ends on 5/1/21 with a summary of his performance. Sleepy Joe has 23 days to reach his goal. The CDC vaccine tracker map displayed in the New York Times reports 169 million shots in arms. 19% of the US population has been fully-vaccinated (1 in 5). Remember, Biden's gang is using fuzzy math. Trump is credited with 20 million shots in arms when he left office in disgrace on 1/20/21. Thus, Biden is at 149 million doses for his pile (169-20). Biden needs another 51 million in 23 days which is 2.2 million doses per day. The current vaccination rate is 3.0 million doses per day down from the 3.1 peak on the weekend. At the 3 million rate, after 23 days, that would be 69 million shots for a grand Biden total of 218 million way over the 200 million goal. The vaccine goal bar is set so low is it laying on the carpet and even Sleepy Joe, in his orthopedic shoes, can easily step over. Biden is a master politician that always under promises and over delivers so he looks like a hero. Others over promise and then under delivery so they look like zeroes. The expectations game is key in politics, business, love and coronavirus.
Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 4/7/21: The CDC says variants are in all 50 US states and the more-infectious B117 has registered over 16K cases in America. Young people are becoming infected more mainly from day care centers and youth sports. Also, more adults in their 30's and 40's are becoming sick with coronavirus. The CDC is recommending expanding vaccines to children 12 years old and up. The CDC is likely worried about reaching herd immunity and inoculating tweens and teenagers would help that goal. Isn't it interesting at the same time, Pfizer says the vaccine is safe and effective for children in that age group. Do you get the feeling that they are shoving vaccinations down your throat? The medical folks are racing against the variants and pulling out all stops to achieve herd immunity as fast as possible, but, will it be fast enough? The AstraZeneca drama rages on. The EU member countries such as France, Italy and Germany are using the AstraZeneca vaccine for folks over 60 years old. The UK may have found a link to the blood clot problem and does not recommend the vaccine for young people under 30 years old. Japan finally recognizes the new wave that is underway. The Olympic torch is halted in Osaka as the region imposes a state of emergency. So much for the indistinguishable Olympic light. Indonesian President Jokowi says all nations, rich or poor, should have equal access to vaccines. Indonesia exceeds 42K total deaths from coronavirus. Jokowi decrees that the world must avoid vaccine nationalism.
Note Added Wednesday Evening, 4/7/21: GLOBAL COVID-19 DEATHS EXCEED 2.9 MILLION PEOPLE. THERE ARE NEARLY 134 MILLION TOTAL CORONAVIRUS CASES IN THE WORLD WHICH IS 2% OF THE 7.7 BILLION POPULATION (1 IN EVERY 50 PEOPLE ON EARTH HAVE BEEN INFECTED WITH THE CHINA FLU). THE USA APPROACHES 573K DEAD SOULS (A DOZEN VIETNAM'S) WITH OVER 31 MILLION TOTAL COVID CASES WHICH IS 9.6% OF THE 330 MILLION US POPULATION (1 IN EVERY 10 AMERICANS HAVE BEEN INECTED WITH THE WUHAN VIRUS).
Note Added Thursday Morning, 4/8/21, at 3:00 AM EST: The dissertation on the staying power of the US fourth wave continues. The US reports over 75K daily new cases. This is not good. The terrible spike higher is above the 7-day MA trend line at 66K. The US is trying to hold on and stave off the variant wolf at the door, however, the task is becoming more difficult. Five US states account for nearly one-half of the daily new cases; New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Florida. Pennsylvania declares that a fourth wave has started. The US active cases curve continues lower, by a hair, but this is key. There is a sliver of hope that the vaccines can defeat the variants but this ends when the active cases curve curls higher. California's active cases curve which impacts the US curve greatly, is dead flat at 1.666 million infected people; there's that ominous 666 number again. America is dancing on the head of the covid pin and will fall into either the vaccines are working camp, or, the variants win camp. 873 Americans die yesterday. The CDC points out that deaths are down, and they are, which is a positive, and the main goal of vaccines, but US deaths are running at 9 hundo the last couple days and the 7-day MA trend line is at 771 deaths (you want the numbers to be lower and below the 7-day MA so that trend line is pulled lower to zero someday). The UK has experienced a couple zero-death days to their credit for taking a chance and inoculating the population to the greatest extent possible with 1-shot and not worrying that the second shot within 3 or 4 weeks. The second shots occur but a few weeks later. The UK strategy appears to have worked. The US sticks to the exact scientific drug trial study of a 2-shot regimen within the 3 or 4 week time frame and we flounder. The Friday data is typically the most robust of the week so today's daily new cases, and especially tomorrow's, will tell a lot about the direction ahead for the US fourth wave. The US is at an average 3 million doses per day vaccination rate during April thus far (the last week); the rate is not ramping higher but it is also not giving away any ground lower. America remains in suspended animation awaiting its covid fate ahead.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 4/8/21, at 3:30 AM EST: Brazil's active cases curve turns lower which is great news for the beleaguered nation. Hopefully, that curve will continue lower forming the bell shape although Brazil's daily new cases are a huge 91K spike yesterday. Daily new cases jump sharply in Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay, Columbia and Venezuela, which are Brazil's neighbors. The more deadly P1 is spreading to these nations and people fleeing Brazil are crossing over borders into these nations bringing coronavirus with them. For the last couple years, Venezuelans have been crossing into Columbia to escape the economic collapse but now the China Flu exacerbates this nightmare. Oh my. There are no words for India. The daily cases spike to 126,315 the highest ever. This is equivalent to the entire population of a US city such as Columbia, South Carolina, or Santa Clara, California, or Cedar Rapids, Iowa, or Topeka, Kansas, becoming completely ill with China Flu in one single day. Holy smokes. Turkey's daily new cases rocket launch to 55K. Where's dirtbag Dictator Erdogan? Bueller? Erdogan? Bueller? Turkey deaths catapult higher to 276 souls the deadliest day of the entire pandemic. Europe remains a mess and the politics makes it worse. A few nations may be starting to play games again underreporting daily cases. When a country's active cases curve, the number of infected people, keeps ramping higher and higher, it is guaranteed that the daily new case count is not going lower. It's math. Politicians are deceitful people. Bangladesh reports 7.6K daily new cases the highest ever. India's E484Q/L452R double mutation is a real bastard. Bangladesh deaths are at record levels. Kazakhstan reports record-setting daily new cases and deaths. The eastern Europe, western Asia and Southeast Asia region is a horrific hotspot where the variants are spinning out of control. Vaccines are not going to save these souls anytime soon. India says it is exhausting its vaccine supplies and only 1% of the population is inoculated.
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 4/8/21: 25 hockey players with the Vancouver Canucks are sick with covid or in quarantine. The virus deserves respect when premier athletes, in top physical condition, with single-digit body fat, become sick. In Colorado, USA, 13 people experience adverse effects from the J&J vaccine. The vaccine site is shut down and 600 vaccine appointments are cancelled. A similar occurrence takes place in North Carolina. Some patients are fainting after receiving the shot.
Note Added Friday Morning, 4/9/21, at 3:00 AM EST: The news is bad for US daily cases, active cases and deaths. The fourth wave develops upward thrust. The US reports 80K daily new cases yesterday the highest since February; an 80-handle. The 7-day MA is at 67K, in an uptrend, and will be pulled higher if the robust numbers continue. The 3-day MA for daily cases is at 72.5K and moving towards one of its mini peaks. The prior peak in the 3-day MA is 4/2/21 at 73.8K cases. Watch to see if the 3-day MA exceeds 73.8K over the next day or two, if so, pound another death nail in the hope coffin. Now the news goes from bad to worse with the US active cases curve (shown above) curling higher for the first time since the peak occurred in late January. The US active cases chart needs to drop sharply lower to form the bell shape to signal the coming end of the virus but alas, the curve now curls higher. This is devastatingly bad news. On Tuesday, 4/6/21, there were 6.89 million total US active cases. On Wednesday, 4/7/21, 6.86 million cases (the active cases curve is still moving lower by a hair). Yesterday, Thursday, 4/8/21, 6.87 million cases. As Lead Belly would sing, "Goodnight Irene, Irene goodnight." Hope springs eternal so a miracle may roll the curve back over to the downside but the rising daily new cases say that should not happen. A stasis sideways in the active cases may be the best that America can hope for. It is a sad day to see the active cases curve curl higher for the first time. The fourth wave continues. The US reports 1,009 deaths over the 1K level again as the press has been trying to place a positive spin on things saying the deaths are held low. Easter Sunday was the low print with 300 deaths and they are up every day since. The 7 and 3-day MA trend lines remain in downtrends but deaths are a lagging statistic. First is the spike in daily cases, then hospitalizations, then people die. Oh-no. The CDC new hospital admissions spike wildly higher and remember this data is 2 to 3 days old not real-time. The CDC data and chart shows hospitalizations also in a clear uptrend. The news is bad.
Note Added Friday Morning, 4/9/21, at 3:30 AM EST: California crosses the 60K deaths grim milestone and its active cases curve, that is a large influence on the overall US active cases curve, is also curling higher (bad). Texas daily new cases bump slightly higher the last couple days. The Texas Rangers baseball games were Monday and Tuesday evening with a packed stadium of nearly 40K fans. Next Tuesday to Thursday, 4/13/21 to 4/15/21, the Dallas-Fort Worth area hospitals may see a sharp uptick in patients; it would be wise to get ready and they surely are. Florida, that likes to brag about how great things are, sees a big spike in daily new cases to 7.9K the highest since early February. Florida files a lawsuit against the CDC because of their restrictions on not allowing cruise lines to operate (a big tourism industry for the Sunshine State). Florida fights to open the economy and put people on cruise ships as their daily new cases trend higher. The pandemic remains one big chaotic mess. Michigan remains in horrible shape. If that outbreak, mainly the B117 strain, hits all the states, America is in serious trouble. Wisconsin begins a fourth wave higher. Oh my. Ohio, Illinois, and Indiana are also reporting rising daily cases. All four of these states are Michigan's next door neighbors. It does not take a rocket scientist to see that COVID-19 is spreading from Michigan outward. Ontario, Canada, our pals up north, are also experiencing the Michigan spread. Michigan was the first troubled state signaling the start of the US fourth. A month later, the mayhem spreads. Stock up on supplies and stay at home folks, however, with spring, and love in the air, everyone is doing the opposite. The CDC reports 20% of Americans fully vaccinated. The dose rate remains at 3 million doses per day. 175 million shots are administered in the US. Taking away 20 which are credited to King Donnie, Sleepy Joey is up to 155 million shots. He needs 45 million more for his goal within the next 21 days or a rate of 2.1 million doses per day which should be easy to achieve.
Note Added Friday Morning, 4/9/21, at 3:45 AM EST: Mayday India. This is epic human tragedy on a grand scale. India's daily cases catapult to 132K the highest ever with 802 deaths the highest since last October. Bangladesh is bad as well. Chile reports a new all-time high in daily cases. Bolivia, Paraguay, that whole region is a mess. Europe remains a mess in both infections and the vaccination roll-out. Germany reports over 24K daily new cases the highest since the first few days of the year. The pandemic is raging around the world. The daily new cases for the planet are approaching levels not seen since the peak of the pandemic in January. Global citizens want their old lives back but COVID-19 and its mutant family has a different idea.
Note Added Friday Afternoon, 4/9/21: Four states, Colorado, North Carolina, Georgia and Iowa report adverse reactions to the J&J vaccine including dizziness, fainting, low platelets and the dreaded blood clots. One person dies. Johnny John is going down the AstraZeneca blood clot rabbit hole. Investigations are underway but the states expect to resume the J&J vaccines in quick order. Scientists are having difficulty identifying the exact mechanism in the vaccines that potentially link the shots to the blood clots. France is not recommending the AstraZeneca vaccine for those under 55 years old and younger due to the blood clot issue. For the French that received the first shot of the AstraZeneca vaccine, a different vaccine will be provided for the second shot. Doctors are cringing at this development, which is creating further confusion, since there is no science or studies concerning mixing vaccines. During a Whitehouse briefing on coronavirus, Surgeon General Murthy talks about the pandemic's impact on children's mental health. Sadly, researcher say 40,000 kids lost a parent to COVID-19. Murthy also says that 1 in every 8 people stricken with covid develop psychiatric or neurological conditions. Many folks are experiencing anxiety and depression especially healthcare workers, essential workers, caregivers, minorities and young people. Walensky provides data showing that communities that have been vaccinated are seeing less visits to the emergency rooms. She tells folks to get vaccinated. Fauci talks about 'breakthrough' cases where some fully-vaccinated people test positive for covid and become sick anyways. Some have been hospitalized. Fauci proclaims that there is nothing to see here, move along, move along, since the occurrences are small and in agreement with the 90%-plus efficacy rates for the vaccines (in other words, 10% of you that have been fully-vaccinated may still end up contracting the China Flu).
Note Added Saturday Morning, 4/10/21, at 2:00 AM EST: More bad news. The US reports over 85K daily new cases yesterday. The Friday data is typically more robust and it does not disappoint. A lower number would be a welcome sight but that is not meant to be, quite the contrary, the infections are ramping-up quickly in the United States. Infections increase as people are frolicking in the springtime weather, attending crowded events indoors and outside, and businesses and schools are reopening. People are happy and enjoying life again casting away the pandemic fatigue in favor of partying. Some will be laying on gurneys in a couple weeks. The US daily new cases are over 80K, an 80-handle, for 2 consecutive days. Sadly, the daily new cases now exceed the late July 2020 peak in cases. The 7-day MA is 68K cases and moving higher (bad). Oh-no. The 3-day MA is up to 80K which is a higher high. This is the fourth higher high with three higher lows for the 3-day MA which clearly verifies an uptrend and the US wave four in progress and beginning to accelerate. The US active cases curve curls higher for 2 consecutive days (bad). 929 Americans die yesterday from the China Virus. The deaths are running above the 7-day MA that remains in a hair of a downtrend, but higher death numbers will curl the trend line higher. The US fourth wave is worsening. Michigan hospitals are overrun. After 14 months, the pandemic remains a chaotic mess.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 4/10/21, at 2:30 AM EST: There are no words for India where the daily new coronavirus cases rocket launch to 148K. This is equivalent to the entire US city of Naperville, Illinois, or Springfield, Massachusetts, becoming sick with covid in one single day. Each day is a new record. The hospitals are overwhelmed. Ditto Bangladesh. The mutants are winning out around the world. Global daily new cases, the total sum of all daily new cases on the planet, are on the verge of breaking-out to the highest numbers of the entire pandemic. The covid crisis is worsening everywhere you look around the world. In the US, the public is dancing among the daffodils, throwing rose petals joyously into the air and decreeing that the pandemic is ending (as the fourth wave stealthily attacks biting harder and deeper).
Note Added Saturday Afternoon, 4/10/21: J&J stumbles. The problems at the Baltimore plant, operated by Emergent BioSolutions, continue. Johnson & Johnson is scaling back on its promises to supply millions of vaccine doses. Maybe Johnny John should stick to making band-aids instead of vaccines? Michigan's hospital system is overrun with infections. The test positivity rate is a lofty 18% (1 in 5 people tested have covid). Governor Whitmer asks residents to 'voluntarily limit activities'. Good luck with that. She says, "These are not orders, mandates or requirement." Last year, Whitmer received death threats and a couple of nutcases had planned to kidnap her due to their unhappiness with lockdown. No doubt she is gun-shy now. Whitmer asks the US government for more vaccine. Lady, the time to request that was a month ago when the chronology pointed out that a major problem was developing. The covid horse is out of the Michigan barn now. The politicians are always in crisis management due to their poor planning and organizational skills. The Whitehouse task force says the vaccine distribution plan will not change since the virus is already spreading to other neighboring states (it is too late). American mediocrity is on display each day a far step down from American excellence that existed five decades ago. One-half of the new infections in Michigan are B117 (from 40% to 70% depending on the data set). Since Michigan leads the US wave four trouble, it will be a great test case for the Keystone Model's use of the 28 day period between the peak in daily new cases and the flattening of the active cases curve. Michigan is the tip of the spear. After 14 months, doctors and nurses have a better understanding on how to treat the China Flu. Therefore, the 28-day period may shorten a bit to perhaps 24 to 26 days. Michigan will provide clues. Since Michigan's daily new cases continue to peak (within 8% of the recent tops), using yesterday's 4/9/21 date, adding 28 days as per the Keystone Model, is 5/7/21. Thus, for right now, Michigan's active cases curve will not flatten and begin to roll over to start to form the bell shape until the first week of May. This is when the hospitals and healthcare workers will notice the work load finally improving so there are at least 3 weeks of tough sledding ahead for Michiganders. Pray that the new strains, such as the B117, will work through the system faster. This may or may not be the case. Michigan's path will show the other states their fate ahead. The surge in Michigan is attacking far more young people. Many of the older patients becoming sick are catching COVID-19 from their teenage or young children.
Note Added Saturday Evening, 4/10/21: 16 US universities are requiring students to show proof of vaccination to attend school. 'Your papers please' if you want to write papers. Kneel and worship your chosen institution of higher learning; lick their feet and roll up your sleeve. A spotlight is shining on the vaccine hesitancy and skepticism, as they prefer to call it across the pond, situation. Medical folks are becoming alarmed that not enough people are willing to become vaccinated which will continue to stall the arrival of herd immunity. CNN reports that 40% of US Marines, the number may even be slightly higher, are refusing to take the vaccine. Interestingly, about 40% of healthcare workers are not willing to take the vaccine but do so if their employer requires it. Breaking up the hesitancy issue by political affiliation, about 40% of republicans are willing to take the vaccine, about 60% of independents say yes to the shots and about 80% of the democrats. The data show how the liberals are the boot-licker's willing to blindly follow whatever instructions or rules authorities or officials tell them to do, while the conservatives resist governments infringement into daily lives and are more prone to embrace conspiracy theories. The independents, which are the best reflection of Americans, in the middle, that shun both of the corrupt political parties, and are a movement growing faster than either party, are skeptical of vaccines but generally willing to roll up their sleeves for the greater good. Vaccine mandates may become the new buzzword. And you stupidly thought America was a free country. At least it is pseudo-free which is a good thing.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 4/11/21, at 2:30 AM EST: The US reports 67K daily new cases for yesterday sitting on the 7-day MA rising trend line at 68K. The US active cases curve flattens again over the last day. The vaccine versus variant race continues. The United States is pulling out all the stops to ramp-up vaccinations as B117 spreads. One-half the population of New Hampshire is vaccinated, the leader in the US, but the daily new cases continue higher. Friday's number is the highest since the start of the year for New Hampshire.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 4/11/21, at 3:30 AM EST: India's daily new cases are at 153K another new record high for the pandemic! 838 Indians die another record high for this second wave and not seen since last October. Oh-no. Spain's daily new cases jump to 11K so serious trouble is beginning again for the bull-fighting nation. Germany is out of ICU beds and implementing emergency plans. In Paris, police break up parties. No wonder France's active cases curve continues higher never flattening. The French love their wine, baguette and cigarettes and of course the music and dancing and singing that is a lot more fun than staying at home hiding under the bed. Global daily new cases are 786K on Friday, 4/9/21, only superseded by the 1/7/21 and 1/8/21 record highs at 845K cases. The world is about to report the most COVID-19 cases in a single day for the entire pandemic verifying the seriousness of the situation, and yet global citizens are acting like the China Flu is in the rearview mirror.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 4/11/21, at 4:30 AM EST: The US vaccinates a record 4.6 million people on Saturday according to the CDC map and data shown in the New York Times. Congratulations to everyone involved in such a feat. Saturday data is the most robust for vaccinations since people are off work and have time to get the shot. The US average is at 3.1 million doses per day. B117 has a strong hold on Michigan and its neighbors such as Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois, Indiana and Wisconsin and also Ontario to the north. The vaccines and variants are in the trenches now fighting hand to hand combat. In Ontario, 80% of the new cases are B117 and Brazil's P1 is also spreading. The variants are spreading faster among young Canadians and especially impacting the 35 to 50 year old age group.
Note Added Sunday Afternoon, 4/11/21: An Israeli study says Pfizer's vaccine may be less effective against the South Africa B1351 strain. Interestingly, UK citizens that were fully-vaccinated avoided the variant but the partially-vaccinated did not. Regeneron's antibody treatment is successful with mild to moderately ill coronavirus patients so the company is seeking FDA approval to use the drug as a preventive treatment. Former President Trump recovered from coronavirus after receiving the Regeneron antibody treatment. China is considering mixing different vaccines to increase efficacy. The Chinese vaccines are not as effective as others. WHO says nearly 90% of the vaccines have gone to wealthier nations. No one is surprised. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, the head money-printer that creates the decade-long stock market boom, says America is at an "inflection point" where the economy will take off like gangbusters but the only fly in the ointment would be coronavirus.
Note Added Monday Morning, 4/12/21, at 5:00 AM EST: The US data should be lighter for Sunday and it is at 48K daily new cases. Last Sunday, Easter, was 47K. The Sunday before was 52K. The 3-day MA and 7-day MA trend lines continue higher in the fourth wave. US deaths are a low 276 yesterday a welcome sight albeit tragic for those families. Texas cases have been moving higher a few days but drop back below the 7-day MA trend line the last couple days. Texas will be an excellent test case this week to see how much of a virus spread occurs after the baseball games last Monday and Tuesday evening. The games are at the Dallas-Fort Worth stadium so the hospitals, clinics, medics and healthcare workers in this area would be impacted. The Monday, 4/5/21, game had about 40K fans and the next evening was comparable. Will it be a superspreader? 1 in 5 Texans are fully-vaccinated. 8 days is a magic number for virus incubation after events, call it 8 or 9 days, thus, all eyes should watch the Dallas-Fort Worth hospital new admission data this week especially between 4/13/21 through 4/15/21. Watch to see if the new covid cases ramp up steadily in that area this week. It will provide great confidence that 40K people could safely assemble mostly outside (except food vendor areas, lounges and bathrooms) and not become sick, or, the baseball games will be ridiculed as superspreader events leading to a big uptick in sickness and calls for officials to account for their gross incompetence.
Note Added Monday Morning, 4/12/21, at 5:30 AM EST: Global coronavirus cases are approaching 137 million with 2.95 million people dead. The grim 3 million deaths milestone is around the next corner. 110 million people have recovered. In total cases, the USA is number one at nearly 32 million cases, India is number two at 13.53 million and Brazil is third at 13.48 million total COVID-19 cases. France, Russia, UK, Turkey and Italy are next running from 5 million cases down to 3.8 million cases in that order. The India outbreak is completely out of control with daily cases at 170K which is mind-boggling. To put it in perspective, this would be the same as an entire city such as Salem, Oregon, or Providence, Rhode Island, becoming sick with China Flu within 24 hours! Italy makes incremental progress curling its active cases curve over to start to form the bell shape (good news). France and Germany, and now Spain, remain in trouble. Spain is beginning a new wave right now. Poland, like Italy, is rolling its active cases curve over so that is finally some good news in that nation. Ukraine remains a mess and now Russia is amassing troops at the border. Dirtbag murderer Putin is playing games. China is also more aggressive in and around Taiwan that is the most successful nation on earth in dealing with coronavirus. It is easier to control borders when an island nation such as Taiwan or the UK. Interestingly, Germany did the best job in Europe at containing the virus and if the Deutschland was an island it may have had the UK-style outcome, however, the surrounding nations engulfed Germany with infections and they are left to fight off the virus with one hand while holding a beer in the other hand. Oh-no; this is being said often these days when looking at data and charts. Mexico reports a spike in daily new cases to 6.4K the highest in 3 weeks. Mexico's active cases curve is running sideways, flatter than a newlywed's soufflé, but hints at ticking higher. Canada is in trouble. The US is descending into trouble as the variants spread. Now Mexico may be heading for big trouble. When it rains, it pours. The global daily new cases may report the highest ever cases for the pandemic. COVID-19 is wreaking havoc around the world and in the US and yet business and schools are reopening. People are resuming life without worry believing in the vaccination program. The backdrop is surreal. Many people are saying 'virus be damned' and simply returning to 'normal' life. Some of them will be lying on a gurney next week.
Note Added Monday Afternoon, 4/12/21: CDC Director Walensky says Michigan should go into shutdown considering the severity of the outbreak. It will take 2 to 6 weeks before vaccines are effective so supplying extra doses to Michigan, as requested by Governor Whitmer, is a non-starter. The Michigan outbreak is spreading to Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and even if the CDC increased vaccinations in these states, it may not help since the current wave is underway. Nonetheless, as dear ole Mom always said, "every little bit helps" so vaccinating as many folks as possible, even extending the site hours, and extending eligibility to younger folks to 12 years old, may help stem the covid tide. The Whitehouse is releasing ads around NASCAR and country music platforms encouraging folks to get vaccinated. The stock car racing and country music enthusiasts tend to be white and lean republican which is the demographic that is least wiling to be vaccinated. Sleepy Joe Biden is trying to target the right people. At least Biden's folks are proactive with ideas as opposed to King Donnie Trump's gang that told everyone for 5 months that the 'US is rounding the corner' and then he ended up in the hospital.
Note Added Monday Evening, 4/12/21: Dr Fauci appears on CNN opining about the outbreaks occurring. Fauci decrees, "Don't declare victory prematurely." Fauci urges Americans to hang on a while longer until more people are vaccinated. Keep using masks and social distancing. "We are not victorious yet." He says, "No vaccine is 100%" and there will be 'breakthroughs' (this is a bad term which is receiving frequent use over the last week; it means people are becoming infected with covid after they are vaccinated). Fauci has not ate outside at a restaurant but he says it is because of his busy work. The doctor says he would if he had time. Fauci says you need to look at the level of infection in the area where you want to dine indoors and consider that in your decision (this stuff becomes ridiculous, and funny, but at the same time deadly serious as it impacts peoples lives and livelihoods). Few people would spend time checking infection rates before they go to dinner. Fauci proclaims that he would attend an outside baseball game but he would wear a mask. "I would not hesitate to do that (attend a Washington Nationals baseball game)." As the Egyptians said centuries ago, "Let it be said, let it be written, let it be done." This week we will know the result of the Texas Rangers baseball games last Monday and Tuesday, infection-wise, and that can serve as the tool to determine if Fauci's proclamations about not hesitating to attend outdoor events are correct, and make him a hero, or wrong, as wave four bites hard, making him a zero. Let's hope the Texas Rangers games are non-spreader events since everyone is fed-up and sick of the pandemic that continues on day after day placing everyone's lives on indefinite hold. Pandemic limbo.
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