By K E Stone (Keystone)
It is surreal writing the 40th Coronavirus Chronology
article. One year ago, the pandemic was supposed to be over in 2 weeks! Assecret agent Maxwell Smart said in the Get Smart television show decades ago,“Only missed it by that much (holding right hand in the air with the index
finger and thumb showing a small gap).”
The Keystone Model was developed to forecast the peaks in
the coronavirus pandemic for countries and US states using the active cases
bell curve. It was unknown a year ago that the Coronavirus Chronology would become
a historic reference paper that is documenting the pandemic in real-time. The
articles will continue until the virus, or humanity, ends.
Yesterday afternoon, Friday, 4/23/21, the CDC Advisory
Committee recommends the continued use of the Johnson & Johnson Janssen vaccine
for folks over 18 years old. The CDC and FDA sign off on the recommendations.
There are 15 reported blood clot incidents (some media source say 16 and 18) after
receiving the J&J vaccine. This number is over twice the original 6 cases
reported a couple weeks ago. The blood clots are extremely rare but can be
deadly. One person has died and 7 are in the hospital. 13 of the cases are
women ages 18 to 49 and 2 cases are women over 50 years old. 8 million J&J
vaccines are administered.
Two weeks ago, news outlets were reporting 6 blood clot
cases with the J&J vaccine out of 17 to 20 million doses administered. The
actual numbers were 6 clot cases in 8 million doses and now, after the
investigation, the current statis is 15 clot cases in 8 million doses. This
accounts for a miniscule 0.000002% chance of getting the blood clots from the
J&J vaccine or 1 in 533,333 chance. Those are lottery ticket type odds. In
Europe, the AstraZeneca vaccine has a 1 in 100,000 chance of causing a blood
clot and the medical boards conclude that the benefits outweigh the risks.
The Advisory Board voted 10 for ending the J&J pause, 4
against, and 1 person abstained since they received the J&J shot. It is a
bit concerning that four votes are opposed to the restart with all age groups. Perhaps
age should be a factor. Europe uses age guidelines with the AstraZeneca
vaccine.
It was hoped that only a couple or 3 or 4 further blood clot
cases would appear during the 10 days of investigation, however, the count
jumps from 6 to 15 but remains extremely rare. There are 9 million J&J vaccine
doses distributed in the 50 US states ready to be shot in arms and the medical
smart people say go for it. The inoculations can restart today.
The CDC, FDA and Advisory Board believe the benefits far
outweigh the risks for the J&J vaccine. It is surprising that the board did
not place age or sex (male/female) restrictions on the vaccine. A safety label
is recommended, however, that cautions women under the age of 50 about the risk
of blood clots.
Cutting through the pandemic politics, and keeping it real as
Dave Chappelle would say, the decision to restart the Johnny John vaccine
likely has more to do with money and the global vaccine rollout. After all,
every decision in life is based on money, isn’t it? The J&J vaccine does
not need special refrigeration and it is a 1-shot and done inoculation which is
key for needle-phobic people. The Advisory Board likely figured-in the billions
of J&J doses that will be needed for Africa and other third-world nations.
It is a difficult sell to the world to place age restrictions
on the J&J vaccine for Americans, but then to turn around and tell the
poorer nations, hey, it is okay for all of you to take the vaccine regardless
of age. Obviously, that could lead to a problematic outcome in the weeks and
months ahead. Under-developed nations may think they are being given something
inferior which may increase vaccine hesitancy and skepticism. A case in point
was the Detroit, Michigan, situation a few months back when the city thought it
was being slighted by receiving large shipments of the J&J vaccine while
watching the rest of the nation mostly receive the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna
vaccines.
By saying the J&J Jannsen vaccine is safe for everyone
over 18 years old, it paves the way for widespread use around the planet. Of course,
the smart, and pretty, American women are likely going to consider a
Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna shot instead of J&J, if they are comfortable
with the new messenger RNA technology.
In addition, there is lots of money to be made by J&J
supplying the world with shots in arms. The medical industry and corporations
are comingled in incestuous relationships like all other industries in
America’s crony capitalism system. Approving the continued use of the vaccine for
all ages assures that the wealthy, that own the stock in the pharmaceutical and
biotechnology companies, will keep stuffing their pockets with money. Human
greed makes the world go around.
The pause in the J&J vaccine has coincided with a drop
in the US daily vaccination rate from 3.38 million average doses per day now
down to 2.86 million doses per day, as per the CDC vaccination map provided by
The New York Times; a reduction of -15%. Over 286 million vaccine doses are
shipped to US states and territories. Most are the Pfizer and Moderna mRNA 2-shot
vaccines except for 8 million doses that were the single-shot J&J vaccine.
There are 9 million additional J&J Jannsen doses distributed to the states
ready to go after the pause has ended.
222 million of those 286 million shipped doses are shot in American
arms for a doses used percentage of 78%. The best the country can do with this
percentage is about 80% which is a useful number for preparing logistics plans
for future pandemics. There is always a lag time between when a shipment of
vaccine arrives and when it is shot into arms. 27% of the US is fully
vaccinated and 41% has at least one shot. Most US states have between one-third
and one-half of the population vaccinated with at least one shot.
Northeast states such as New Hampshire, Connecticut, Massachusetts,
Maine and Vermont are doing the best with vaccinations while Wyoming,
Tennessee, Idaho, Puerto Rico, Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi bring up the
rear. The vaccination program on the banks of the great Mississippi River is doing
the worst. The pandemic data is always worse around the ports.
On the presidential campaign trail last year, Sleepy Joe
Biden promised 100 million shots in arms within his first 100 days in office
which everyone knew was an easy goal. Biden was elected and it was an easy
goal.
President Biden then proclaimed 200 million vaccine shots in
arms within his first 100 days (ending 4/30/21). As Keystone immediately
explained with easy math after that decree, it was another easy goal and it was
achieved yesterday with 7 days to spare. Joe is a master politician that knows
how to play the low expectations game. Under promise and over deliver. At 222
million shots in arms, former President Trump is credited with 20 million
through 1/20/21, so Biden has 202 million doses in his camp.
At 2.86 million doses per day rate, and 7 more days, Sleepy
Joe will have 222 million doses to his credit within the first 100 days in
office ((2.86x7)+202). So Biden will be bragging next Friday afternoon, or on
May Day, 5/1/21, next Saturday, that he has achieved over 220 million doses in
arms. He will describe storm clouds, dark days and pandemic chaos until he took
office and the heavens parted.
As the previous articles highlighted with simple math, 240
million Americans need vaccinated to achieve herd immunity. There are 330
million Americans. This number takes into account people not returning in the
case of multiple-dose vaccines as well as other standards based on past pandemics.
It also estimates that 15% of Americans have had COVID-19 and have natural
antibodies (50 million people).
Medical folks use a range of 60% to 90% for herd immunity.
Dr Fauci has highlighted the 70% to 85% range which is between 231 million and
264 million Americans. Other doctors have used independent methods to arrive at
a 240 million number for herd immunity. This is 73% of the population
(240/330).
How close are we to 240 million vaccinated people and herd
immunity? There are 222 million shots in arms and all but 8 million are the
2-shot vaccines. Taking 8 from 222 is 214 million of the mRNA vaccines, and
halving this number is 107 million people vaccinated. 107+8 is 115 million fully
vaccinated. The web page says 91 million people are fully vaccinated with
another 46 million with one shot. The 115 and 91 numbers roughly jive. The data
is occurring in real-time which presents challenges but about 100 million
Americans are fully vaccinated.
If another 46 million are at one-shot, let’s call that 23
million people fully-vaccinated pretending they had received 2 shots. Thus,
about 125 million Americans (2 in 5) are vaccinated against covid. We need 240
million. We are only one-half towards the herd immunity goal and already
hitting the ‘vaccine wall’ where the lack of demand is controlling the
vaccination pace rather than the lack of supply.
Media is also calling the ‘vaccine wall’ the ‘tipping point’
and ‘stall speed’ where the lack of demand for vaccines rules the roost. Going forward, one
of these names will likely gain prominence in the daily zeitgeist as the
vaccination sites begin looking like ghost towns with tumbleweeds rolling by
and crickets chirping in the background.
The vaccine wall is hit for many reasons and needlephobia is
probably lowest on the list. Many people do not trust what is in the vaccines
and if you ever tried to search the internet to find out the exact witch’s
brew, good luck with that, you are sent place to place and cannot find the
exact ingredient list of the vaccines. The pharma companies need to maintain
trade secrets but not knowing everything inside the shots immediately makes
people close-minded from ever receiving the vaccine. It is like telling someone
to eat something but you will reveal nothing about what you are feeding them.
Some people are vaccine hesitant due to religious reasons.
Some have had legitimate bad reactions to drugs and medications and do not want
a shot. Some are uninformed since they do not have a computer. People are poor
and do not have regular doctors so they do not know where to find information.
Some are savvy on computers and read the conspiratorial sites all day long
ending-up frozen in fear unable to decide if the shot is safe. Of course, the
AstraZeneca and J&J blood clot scares are not helping create confidence in
vaccines.
And another big reason for vaccine skepticism and not taking
the shot is that many folks just do not care. It is hard for folks that spend
their days hiding under the bed to understand that other people live in the
moment and do not worry about safety or dying. The laissez-faire attitude is ‘if
I get it, I get it’. Besides, the medical folks, at least in the US, know a lot
about handling the disease and less people are dying from it in America. The
medical folks have a tough road to hoe to convince the remaining people to take
the vaccine.
Continuing with the math, another 115 million people need
vaccinated to reach the 240 million goal. Let’s call that 230 million doses. At
a 2.86 million doses per day pace, herd immunity will be reached in 80 days (230/2.86);
7/13/21. July! That is good news. This is if the vaccination rate remains at 2.86
or higher going forward.
Logistics is becoming a problem with the vaccinations. To
reach the herd immunity goal, caregivers are going to have to go directly into
the inner cities and poor rural areas to administer shots for those that
cannot, or are unwilling, to leave home, but willing to receive the
vaccination. Poor folks do not have cars and many do not have access to public
transportation.
What if the number of Americans that have had covid is far
higher than anyone realizes? Many people have been sick with covid and the
asymptomatic aspect of the disease may have hidden the real numbers. For the
above calculation, if, say 30% of America has been sick with covid instead of
the 15% that is factored-in, this is 100 million people instead of 50 million.
Thus, crediting another 50 million people to the herd immunity count results in
only 65 million more Americans needing vaccinated (130 million of the 2-shot
vaccines) to achieve the goal.
At the 2.86 million doses per day rate, herd immunity would
be achieved in 45 days (130/2.86); 6/8/21. June! Next month! 7 Weeks from now! That
is fantastic news. Of course, the variants may have different ideas but the
path forward is looking positive.
The medical community is pushing for kids to get vaccinated
no doubt to help reach the herd immunity goal. Over two dozen universities, a
few sources are saying as many as 70 schools and colleges, are going to require
vaccination to attend classes in the Fall.
The Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) reports that 62% of theUS population has already got vaccinated or plans to get the vaccine as soon as
possible; 205 million people (0.62x330). 17% prefer to wait and see; 56 million
(0.17x330). 7% will take the vaccine only if required to do as per a mandate;
23 million (0.07x330). 13% definitely plan to not get the vaccine; 43 million
(0.13x330). Thus, 205 million people are willing to take the vaccine and this
is an important step towards herd immunity.
Adding in the wait and see folks is another 56 million for a
total of about 261 million Americans likely wiling to roll up their sleeves.
Even though 20% (7%+13%) of Americans do not plan to take the vaccine, 66
million people, the numbers are agreeable to achieving herd immunity during May
and June. At the least, the pandemic should become more manageable under 20K
cases per day and especially below 10K cases per day during the summertime.
This would be welcome news considering the path it took to get this far.
The KFF data interestingly show that 79% of democrats, call
it 80%, 4 in every 5, want to get the vaccine but only 46%, less than 1 in 2,
republicans, are willing to roll up their sleeves. White women are the most
vaccinated, partially because many are in the healthcare profession, but mostly
because they own computers and are well-versed on using technology to schedule
vaccination appointments. Poor people do not have these skills and would be
grateful if someone helped them.
Considering the positive discussion above about herd
immunity potentially occurring in the May-July timeframe, or at least a drastic
decrease in cases, it is no wonder that the US wave four may be petering out.
Let’s go to the charts to assess the US wave four status.
The US daily new cases chart is shown above with the four waves
identified. The vaccinations are definitely helping making an immense
difference in the direction of the pandemic over the last couple weeks. The
data is in a sideways stasis but a downward bias is in play. The fourth wave
started with the arrival of spring and need to shed cabin fever. Vaccine
optimism, the St Patty’s Day and Easter holiday parties, spring break parties,
pandemic fatigue and businesses and schools reopening all play a role in the
start of wave four.
A sharp move higher would be expected with the daily new
cases but instead they slump over. That is a great sight to see since it tells
you the trend (which was up) is broken. The vaccinations broke the back of wave
four, so far. Friday’s daily new cases are 67K an elevated number above the
7-day MA at 62K. However, more importantly, the 7-day MA trend line is moving
lower which is great news. To maintain the lower trend in the 7-day, the daily
new cases must be below 62K. Last Friday’s daily cases were at 82K so 67K is a
welcome sight, another positive.
The 3-day MA is at 66.2K moving higher. The chart above
looks like spaghetti with the cases and the two moving averages but you can go
to the Worldometer site and turn the MA’s on and off for a better look. On
4/16/21, the 3-day MA made a lower high than the peak on 4/9/21 marking the
potential conception of a new downtrend beginning. On 4/20/21, the 3-day MA
trend line prints a lower low (great news). The prior 4/16/21 lower high for
the 3-day MA is at 78.3K cases. As stated, the 3-day is at 66.2K right now
moving higher.
If the 3-day MA peaks below 78.3K in the couple days ahead,
another lower high, that will confirm the downtrend and we can say sayonara to
wave four as it deflates. The US daily new cases chart is finally looking good
again as the 7-week US wave four saga plays out. If the 3-day MA keeps moving
higher due to a big bump in cases today, tomorrow and the next day, America is
screwed, but this is a less likely outcome.
Wave four should fizzle out as long as the variants remains
at bay. The US state data below can provide more insight into what states
should be monitored closely for virus spread.
Ideally, we need the US wave four to die and the daily new
cases to drop below last summer’s levels shown by the orange line in the 28K to
40K daily case range. If US daily new cases fall below 28K over the coming days
or few weeks, everyone has permission to walk into the front yard, or into the
apartment parking lot, and perform cartwheels one after another until dizzy.
The global daily new cases chart is shown above and it is
not Happy Town. It is Sad Town. The COVID-19 pandemic, likely spawned at one of
the Wuhan, China, bioweapons laboratories, after 15 months, has never been
worse. The blood red circle shows the infections for the world well above the
January peak. India is adding massively to the tally. Global daily deaths
exceed 3.1 million but have not yet taken out the January peak in deaths. Thus,
on the worldwide basis, more people are infected with coronavirus these days,
as the variants wreak havoc, but less people are dying. A lot of the elderly
folks were culled early on in the pandemic.
In a nutshell, the world is descending into covid Hell with
variant infections wreaking havoc. The low vaccination rates in undeveloped
countries spreads coronavirus like wildfire. The pandemic in the USA, however,
is improving, and wave four may be sent packing this week verifying the success
of America’s vaccination program. Everyone involved should be proud of their
efforts and hard work and deserve recognition for the achievement. In a couple
weeks, Americans may be walking around in tee shirts that say, “I worked my
tail off vaccinating people to save the USA and all I got was this lousy tee
shirt.”
The US active cases chart is shown above. It is the key bell
curve chart that dictates whether the pandemic is over, or not. The active
cases chart must roll over to form the bell shape which verifies that the
pandemic is on its way to being defeated. Alas, the US stumbles sideways
through the wave four drama.
US daily cases rise to identify wave four and the active
cases also rise but looking at the chart you are channeling your inner GaryColeman exclaiming, “Whatchu talkin’ ‘bout Willis?” The US active cases chart is
flat as a pancake. The active cases are bumping higher but at a tiny
incremental rate so miniscule you need a magnifying glass to see the change.
Let’s all get along and call the US active cases chart flat as a board and
undecided.
If the US daily new cases roll over lower, so will the
active cases chart and we can start to develop the bell shape on the chart
again. It will not be pretty since the bell will now have a big dent in the
upper side of it from wave four but all that will matter is the wave ending and
the active cases curve dropping off sharply lower.
The variants may create havoc in America but at this time
wave four is being shown the door. If the variants do cause trouble, the red
path may be on tap for the US active cases, otherwise, lower daily cases are
expected with the warmer weather (people are outside more rather than indoors
getting sick) and the blue path should be the joyous direction ahead.
Even though the virus will be defeated at some point,
hopefully over the next couple-three months, there are many patients that
remain afflicted with health problems. The symptoms such as shortness of breath
and fatigue remain with the patient for an indeterminate amount of time
requiring ongoing medical attention (maroon circle).
The US deaths chart is shown above. Dying is a subject that
no one likes to discuss. Death is simply another stage of living; it happens to
be the last stage. The US chart shows 790 US deaths from China Flu yesterday
and the chart is now in a sideways malaise. The 7-day MA is moving sideways
with a slight downward bias, any down is good, but at 723, below yesterday’s
daily deaths at 790, the deaths chart will want to move higher. Right now, the
jury is out, but if the daily cases roll over to the downside, the active cases
will drop and in a couple weeks, deaths will drop again.
It is good news that the deaths continue lower in the chart
albeit by a hair. It will be sad if the US deaths begin reporting above the
750-ish level day after day since that will establish an uptrend ahead. The
forecast looks good for daily and active cases to drop which should cause
deaths to roll back over to the downside as well. The USA must keep the variants
at bay. It is nice to see the reduction of US deaths from 5K per day at the
peak in January down to 790 souls yesterday a glorious -84% retreat. We need
the last 16% to get to zero.
The Institute for Health Metrics and evaluation (IHME)
tracks the mortality figures and indicates that 603K Americans would be dead
come 9/1/21, days away from Labor Day. A 30K increase in US deaths during the
summer is tragic but if that will be the end to the pandemic, so be it. IHME
calls out a worst cases scenario of 634K deaths if the pandemic goes south.
The University of Washington/IHME are encouraged by the data
going forward especially since the peak flu season occurs in February.
Typically, cases drop off from February through August and the virus
transmission goes down. This is more positive news along with the US daily new
cases curve above in the process of reestablishing a downtrend. Things are
looking the best since a couple months ago.
There is hope that the US wave four will roll over lower. TheCDC COVID Data Tracker indicates a sideways posture for new hospitaladmissions. Most charts are moving sideways waiting for the other shoe to drop.
Hospitalizations continue rising. This data is always 2 to 3 days old so that
must be kept in mind. The news is encouraging for the US wave four to continue
dying on the covid vine, and the new hospital admissions are another check mark
in that column, for now, but hospitalizations lay a coronavirus egg. It is not
good to see the hospitalizations moving higher but they should flatten and
perhaps roll over lower especially with the new admissions moving incrementally
lower.
America is in the best shape since about 7 weeks ago unless
one of the trouble-making variants raise their ugly head. D614G is the
coronavirus, COVID-19, and the first mutant was in Denmark with ‘Cluster 5’.
The UK’s B117 is a nasty variant making trouble in Michigan. South Africa’s
B1351 (501YV2) and Brazil’s P1 remain major worries. India’s B1617
(E484Q/L452R) double mutant variant is dropping people like flies in Southeast
Asia. There are several nasty variants circulating in Japan. Domestically, the
New York B1526, California B1427/B1429 and Texas BV-1 variants are being monitored
closely.
Oregon’s daily new cases chart is shown above. It is a key
chart because Oregon is like Michigan was a month ago. Everyone says 50 is the
new 30, or Orange is the New Black, but epidemiologists say Oregon is the new
Michigan. Hopefully not, but the charts are bad. Oregon’s daily cases jump to
1,010 yesterday the highest since January. The active cases curve has curled
higher into a strong wave four ruining the progress made after the third wave.
There are 9 deaths in Oregon yesterday from the China Flu
the deadliest day in over 2 weeks. If there is money available for genomic
testing, the CDC would be wise to get into Oregon and figure out what nasty
variant may be at play. There are protests and riots in Oregon that are
spreading virus. Also, the ports. Many outbreaks begin from the ports. The
disease is transmitted via something associated with the ships, seamen and
their cargoes. Watch Oregon closely. Oregon’s vaccination program is on par
with other states. Washington state should be given the same scrutiny as
Oregon.
India’s daily new cases chart is shown above. India reports
345K daily new cases yesterday another all-time record. The human tragedy is
beyond comprehension. People gasp for air as the healthcare workers continue to
tap the sides of oxygen cylinders only hearing empty hollow sounds. One by one,
patients die starved for life-sustaining oxygen. India’s pandemic is in a
parabolic phase that has not shown an end as yet. Deaths catapult to 2,621
souls yesterday the deadliest day ever in India. It breaks your heart. That is
a lot of human suffering. The scary thing is that there is no end in sight.
India’s daily cases chart has gone parabolic and it is
interesting to compare it to the Bangladesh daily new cases chart shown above.
The nations are neighbors. Bangladesh is only about one-eighth the population
of India but it is just as, if not more so, densely populated. The nasty B1617
variant is likely wreaking havoc in the two countries. The chart patterns are
identical from the start; the daily cases go parabolic for both nations.
However, 2 weeks ago, the story changes. Bangladesh goes
into a strict lockdown which put the kibosh on the outbreak in quick order. At
the same time, India Prime Minister Modi tells the states to try and avoid
lockdowns at all costs. India’s pandemic rages on and the new parabolic highs
in daily cases has not ended. It is a tale of two nations with two different
plans and two different outcomes. There is no simple answer. Shutting down
devastates the economy and hurts society mentally and emotionally. Not shutting
down helps to save the economy but people die. Choose your poison.
Japan’s daily new cases chart is shown above. The wave four
is going parabolic with the Olympics on tap in Tokyo in July. Tokyo and other
regions are in states of emergency currently. Japan and South Korea were given
credit as two nations that knew how to handle the pandemic but now, they look
like amateur hour.
The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus casesin the world at 32.7 million. India has 16.9 million cases. Brazil is third at
14.2 million cases. France has 5.4 million cases. Russia reports 4.8 million
cases, Turkey (4.6), UK (4.4), Italy (3.95), Spain (3.5), Germany (3.3), Argentina
(2.82), Poland (2.75), Colombia (2.74), Iran (2.4), Mexico (2.3), Ukraine (2.0),
Peru (1.7), Indonesia (1.64), Czechia (1.62), South Africa (1.57), Netherlands
(1.5), Canada (1.17), Chile (1.16), Romania (1.0), Iraq (1.0K), Philippines
(989K), Belgium (968K), Sweden (938K), Israel (838K), Portugal (834K), Pakistan
(790K), Hungary (767K), Bangladesh (742K), Jordan (700K), Serbia (678K), Switzerland
(647K), Austria (607K), Japan (557K), Lebanon (518K), UAE (509K) and Morocco
(509K) rounding out the list of 41 nations above 500K cases.
The list was 39 only 11 days ago and 37 only 21 days ago. The
China Flu sickens over a half-million people in 41 countries on earth. The
world is trending in a bad direction. Poorer nations are hit with a
double-whammy of low vaccination rates and a higher incidence of variants.
Turkey worsens overtaking the UK on the list now the sixth
worst nation for total coronavirus cases in the world. Where’s dirtbag Dictator
Erdogan? Bueller? Erdogan? Bueller? Erdogan must be hiding with Bolsonaro and
Macron. Argentina worsens by 2 places and Columbia will probably overtake
Poland in the days ahead.
Iran leapfrogs Mexico. Ukraine is the 16th nation to join
the 2 million total coronavirus cases club. Indonesia worsens leapfrogging
Czechia. Canada overtakes Chile. Iraq is the 25th member of the 1 million total
COVID-19 cases club.
Coronavirus has infected 147 million people worldwide. 3.1
million have died. Fortunately, 124 million global citizens have recovered from
the China Flu. 84% (124/147) of the people that become infected with COVID-19
recover in a reasonable time frame. This percentage increases by 4 percentage
points over the last 11 days a big gain. Young people are getting sick more
over the last couple months and perhaps they bounce back better than older
folks.
Worldwide, 2.1% (3.1/147) of the people that are infected
with covid die. This number has sat at 2.2% for many weeks so it is nice to see
it move lower albeit incrementally. 1 in every 47 people that are infected with
COVID-19 around the world, will die, and this number is relatively steady. Generally
speaking, around the world, the mortality rate from covid is at an impasse and
cannot be driven lower.
1.9% (147/7670) of the world’s population of 7.67 billion
people have been infected with coronavirus; 1 in every 52 people on earth. This
number was flat at 1.6% for many weeks but ticked higher to 1.7% a month ago
and then to 1.8% about 2 weeks ago and now up to 1.9%. It is going in the wrong
direction.
Global citizens are getting sick with covid at a faster rate
now than a month ago. Sadly, the variants are the reason for the uptick in the
global infection rate. The picture would be far more disastrous without the
vaccines.
In the United States, 32.7 million people are infected with
covid. 585,200 Americans are dead. 25.3 million Americans have recovered from
covid. This equates to 77% (25.3/32.7) of US citizens recovering after becoming
infected with COVID-19. The number is flat over the last couple weeks. 3 out of
every 4 Americans that contract the Wuhan Flu recover. Rounding up to 80%, 4
out of every 5 Americans that become sick with covid will recover without
lingering effects. The US recovery percentage is worse than the global recovery
percentage.
In the US, 1.8% (585/32700) of the people infected with COVID-19
die. This number remains sticky week after week but the vaccines are supposed
to reduce deaths.
The 1.8% equates to 1 in every 56 US citizens that are
infected with coronavirus dying. Interestingly, the 1.8% death rate is
stone-cold steady for months in America where the vaccine program is hitting
its stride. The death rate climbs to 1.9% globally over the last 2 weeks where
the vaccine programs are lagging and lacking.
9.9% (32.7/330) of the American population of 330 million
people have been infected with covid. This percentage jumps higher by 0.2% over
the last 11 days and is up a half percent over the last 3 weeks. 1 in every 10
Americans have been stricken with coronavirus a terrible number and stunning
statistic. The minority communities are impacted disproportionately since they
tend to live in densely-populated areas.
The United States has 22% (32.7/147) of the COVID-19 cases
in the world. 1 in 5 people that become infected with covid on planet earth are
Americans but this improves from 1 in 4 only a couple weeks ago. The US
vaccination program is making a difference.
The US accounts for 18.8% (585/3105) of the China Flu deaths
in the world down by 0.7% over the last 11 days a notable improvement. 1 in 5
people that die from COVID-19 in the world are Americans. China knows how to
kill us off efficiently. The numbers are going in the right direction for the
US but that means more people are dying elsewhere, like India.
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model,
the Keystone Model for short, is a simple model that predicts when the active
cases chart curves will flatten-out and roll-over lower. This represents the maximum
stress and strain on the medical system and healthcare workers. Once the bell
curve forms the virus will be defeated.
The Keystone Model uses the peak in the new cases to
forecast the peak and flattening of the active cases curve. The ‘flattening of
the curve’ only pertains to the active cases chart. For authoritarian and
communist nations where the populations must do what they are told or they
receive a bullet in their heads, and for smaller nations, and many Asian
nations where citizens follow government rules without questioning authority, the
active cases curve will peak, on average, 11 days after the peak in new cases.
China, Singapore, Japan and South Korea are in this group.
Also New Zealand and Australia since the populations are scattered across the
countryside. Several Middle East nations are under authoritarian rule and the
peaks in the new cases are quickly followed by the peak in the active cases
chart.
For the Western countries, such as the US and European
nations, the so-called free societies, the active cases curve will peak, on
average, 28 days after the peak in new cases (it takes 17 days longer, about 2
weeks longer, for a free society to tamp down a virus wave than a communist or
authoritarian state).
During the last couple months, no doubt as a result of the
medical community becoming better at fighting coronavirus over the last year,
this 28-day period has been reduced by a few days or more. In the lists below
for countries and US states, any of the projections that target 28 days may
occur a tad bit sooner say 2 or 3 days even a week or so sooner. The Keystone
Model will not change since it should remain consistent for the pandemic data
throughout the entire event. The peak in the active cases bell curve may occur
a few days before the target date listed.
The Keystone Model has a great track record over the last
year in predicting when the active cases curve flattens and the bell shape
begins to appear to ring-in the end to the pandemic. Healthcare workers cannot
catch a break until the active cases curve flattens and rolls-over forming the
bell shape. That is when the patient load substantially declines.
The peak in the daily new cases is easily identified by the
bar charts provided by Worldometer and Johns-Hopkins. You see these daily new
cases bar charts on television news channels. The bar charts typically show the
7-day moving average (MA) line which is a smoothing mechanism that helps you
identify the trend of the data.
The Keystone Model considers any subsequent high number of
daily cases occurring after the peak high to be the new peak high day, if it is
within 8% of the peak high on the bar chart. Is that clear as mud? If the daily
new cases are within 8% of the peak high, that day becomes the peak new case
date from which the 11 or 28-day period begins. This is why the daily new case
peak dates in the lists below may be a few days after the peak high that you
see in the bar chart.
For example, the US peak in daily new cases for wave four is
86K on 4/9/21. Taking away 8% is 79K so any daily cases that are above 79K
would be a new peak high for daily new cases. If the daily new cases exceed 79K
for any day forward, there will be trouble. The active cases curve will not
flatten out and roll over lower until early or mid-May.
An update for The Keystone Model is provided since another
10-day period passes, actually 11 days this time, and more data and information
become available to push the China Flu story forward.
This is Article 40 in the Coronavirus Chronology that provides
real-time information for historians, teachers, students, journalists, economists,
market participants, corporate executives, financial managers, Wall Street, doctors,
nurses, medical personnel, first responders, researchers, public officials,
news organizations, traders, investors and politicians studying the COVID-19
pandemic both domestically (USA) and internationally. This fortieth article is
published on Saturday, 4/24/21.
The coronavirus series of articles are the only real-time
source of information available continuously chronicling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic
during 2020 and 2021. Readers live and breathe the pandemic, the worst in a century,
as it occurs in real-time, experiencing the daily virus zeitgeist, good or bad,
devoid of political correctness. This is not revisionist history-telling. It is
the raw pandemic truth and human emotion occurring, recorded and chronicled in
real time. Feel the wind in your hair as the pandemic rages forward. Much of it
is not pretty because it is real.
All 40 articles are archived on The Keystone Speculator blog.
The articles will be published as a complete set in the future via Amazon
called the Coronavirus Chronology; it is a pandemic bible. That is, if the
virus ever ends. The COVID-19 pandemic information and daily zeitgeist is
recorded in real-time which is priceless for those studying the pandemic in
future months, years and decades. The last few articles are linked below if you
want to review or come up to speed with the COVID-19 saga over the last few
weeks.
The Worldometer web site tracks the coronavirus (COVID-19) around
the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus series of
articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. The
Worldometer data and Johns-Hopkins data track each other well with the
Worldometer data typically ahead of the Johns-Hopkins data by a few days. TheCOVID Tracking Project is another excellent source of information and data
available for those wanting to study and understand the virus in more detail
although the project has halted its data collection in real-time and now serves
as an archive.
The worst countries with coronavirus outbreaks are on the
list below. The peaks in daily new cases are shown and the projected peaks in
active cases based on the Keystone Model. The peak and flattening of the active
cases curve represent the maximum stress on healthcare workers. The pandemic is
not under control until the active cases curve flattens and rolls over forming
the bell shape.
The pandemic is smacking the nations at the bottom of the
list the hardest since they are reporting the largest spikes in daily new cases
occurring in real-time. Their active cases charts will take the most time to
roll over.
Countries such as New Zealand, Australia and Singapore are
the best examples on handling the pandemic properly. Japan and South Korea have
excellent testing programs but are struggling to regain control of the
pandemic.
Italy is taken off the bad list below as its active cases
roll over to form the bell shape. Ditto Brazil but it remains in bad shape.
Bangladesh is taken off the bad list for the same reason. Bulgaria improves. Romania
is taken off the list below but deaths remain elevated.
Austria is taken off the bad list below as its active cases
curve also rolls over to form the bell shape. Ditto Serbia. The worst of the
pandemic has moved through central and eastern Europe. Poland is having success
at fighting back covid but the deaths remain elevated.
Philippines is taken off the bad list below since the active
cases curve is rolling over but the nation will keep dealing with the aftermath
of the outbreak for a few weeks.
The following nations are listed from bad to worse with
ongoing coronavirus outbreak waves in progress;
Slovakia (Fourth Wave) (data is
suspect probably underreporting daily new cases)
3/10/21 New Case Peak Date
3/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (curve continues higher)
3/10/21 New Case Peak Date (cases
rising)
3/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (curve continues higher)
3/26/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of third wave)
4/23/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (peaked on 4/13/21 but give it a few more days to make
sure the curve rolls over)
3/27/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for third wave)
4/24/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
4/2/21 New Case Peak Date
4/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (chart trying to top out)
4/2/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 4/1/21 and 4/2/21)
4/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (may have peaked 4/20/21, give it a few days)
4/6/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases ever 3/30/21 and 4/6/21)
4/17/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (may have peaked 4/10/21, give it a few days)
4/6/21 New Case Peak Date
5/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (may have peaked 4/18/21, give it a few days, chart is trying
to flatten)
4/8/21 New Case Peak Date
4/19/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (may have peaked 4/23/21, give it a few days)
4/9/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases of third wave)
4/20/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (may have peaked 4/16/21, give it a few days)
4/9/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
4/20/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (may have peaked 4/19/21 almost to the day of the
forecast, give it a few days)
4/9/21 New Case Peak Date
4/20/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (may have peaked 4/10/21, give it a few days)
4/12/21 New Case Peak Date
4/23/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/13/21 New Case Peak Date
4/24/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (may have peaked 4/21/21, trying to flatten and roll
over, give it a few days)
4/14/21 New Case Peak Date
5/12/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
4/15/21 New Case Peak Date
4/26/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (chart is moving lower but deaths at record highs)
4/15/21 New Case Peak Date
5/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
4/16/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of second wave)
4/27/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (may have peaked 4/21/21, give it a few days)
4/16/21 New Case Peak Date (record
high cases)
4/27/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/16/21 New Case Peak Date
5/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
4/18/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 4/11/21 and 4/18/21)
4/29/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/19/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever are 1/3/21, 4/3/21, 4/5/21, 4/12/21 and 4/19/21)
5/17/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
4/21/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever occur over last week)
5/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/22/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
5/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/23/21 New Case Peak Date
5/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/23/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever last few days)
5/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/23/21 New Case Peak Date (huge
fifth wave compared to other tiny waves)
5/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/23/21 New Case Peak Date
5/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/23/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
5/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/23/21 New Case Peak Date
5/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
4/23/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever 4/15/21 and 4/23/21)
5/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
4/23/21 New Case Peak Date (record
cases)
5/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/23/21
New Case Peak Date (highest new cases of fifth wave 4/22/21 and 4/23/21)
5/21/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
4/24/21 New Case Peak Date
5/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/24/21 New Case Peak Date
5/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date
(based on 11 days)
4/24/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever, huge spike higher)
5/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/24/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever, huge spike higher)
5/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/24/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever)
5/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/24/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases of fourth wave)
5/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/24/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases of fourth wave)
5/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/24/21 New Case Peak Date
5/22/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
4/24/21
New Case Peak Date
5/22/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
4/24/21 New Case Peak Date
5/22/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
4/24/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever, it is an epic human tragedy, Modi failing)
5/22/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (chart is parabolic and frightening)
Germany remains in trouble. The Netherlands is dealing with something nasty right now and they need to respond accordingly. Spain begins a fifth wave so the country would be wise to notify the public to bear down as the virus spreads. Spain is added to the bad list above as its active cases curve ramps higher for the new wave.
Generally, the recent outbreak across central and eastern
Europe is working its way through the region. Italy is on the mend. Ditto
Poland. That pocket area of Germany, Netherlands and Belgium is lagging the
continent in the covid recovery and is a trouble spot.
India and Pakistan are the two worst nations although that
whole bottom grouping in the list are trouble spots. Pakistan deaths are at
record levels. The crematoriums are burning bodies 24/7 in India. “The smell ofdeath is all around,” as the Ramones sing Pet Sematary in the background.
The crematoriums are reminiscent of red China’s actions in
Wuhan one year ago where over a dozen crematoriums burned bodies 24/7 for
several weeks, after which, China reported a low death count. Of course they did.
The communists lie about everything.
Reporters in India continue saying that the data is far
lower than the misery and death seen on the ground. The actual cases and death
numbers in India may be 2 to 5 times higher if that can be imagined. Holiday
festivals over the last month are spreading the virus.
Oxygen supplies remain a key issue. A train is heading north
in India with huge oxygen tanks and supplies. A few hours after a hospital
announced that it only had one hour of oxygen remaining, 20 patients die. This
should not happen. Only 1.6% of India is vaccinated and they manufacture
vaccines there!
People are mad because the Indian government appears
incompetent at preparing for and handling the pandemic. After the first wave
was defeated, an arrogance took hold. People have been gathering together and
Modi has been conducting political rallies. The United States is deploying help
to India. Medical supplies, testing equipment, ventilators, drugs and raw materials for vaccine production are in the air en route to India. Biden says the United States is "determined to help India in its time of need."
Modi finally makes a statement about the ongoing historic
India tragedy. Modi proclaims, “This storm has shaken the nation.” He has been
downplaying the virus. As the charts show above, India is out of control while
Bangladesh imposed a lockdown and is regaining control. Modi is following the
losing Trump playbook pretending the pandemic is in better shape than it is;
same-o with Macron in France and Erdogan in Turkey. Don’t these dolts see how
that worked out for Donnie Trump?
The Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand and Laos peninsula is in
deep trouble the worst hot zone besides India and Pakistan. That whole
Southeast Asia area is dealing with major coronavirus outbreaks. It does not
help that Myanmar (Burma) is dealing with the military coup and unrest. Cambodia
infections are increasing rapidly. The ‘stan’s’ are also in poor shape such as
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
The Middle East remains a trouble spot with Egypt, Saudi
Arabia, Iraq and Iran. At a Baghdad hospital in Iraq, oxygen tanks are mishandled and
blow sky high. 58 people die in the horrific fire. No, check that, the news wires now say 80 perished. The world is not a pretty
place, folks. Several Africa nations continue battling the virus with limited
supplies and expertise.
Japan is in bad shape. Ditto South Korea. Japan and South
Korea did well at handling the initial waves but both are in the doghouse now,
battling fourth waves, perhaps because of arrogance and overconfidence?
The US is handling a few hot spots but should be able to
bend the active cases curve lower again from its current dead-flat sideways
posture. The projection for the active cases curve to roll over is mid-May for
America but perhaps the ship can be righted before then. Canada has improved by
a small amount over the last week but is about to cross the grim 24K deaths
milestone.
Israel has had great success with its vaccination program.
If you review their charts, the daily new cases drop lower and lower to nothing
as the vaccination program plays out. The US was on the same path with its
vaccination program. Everything was groovy with daily new cases dropping just
like Israel’s chart, but then the US chart stopped going down. Then it started
going up. Wave four began. The difference between Israel and the US is the variants.
Israel’s borders are restricted as it completes its vaccination program but the
variants enter the US as Americans also like to party.
Central America is degrading as shown by Honduras and
Guatemala. El Salvador and Costa Rica are not good. Brazil’s troubles have
spread outward. Columbia is in bad shape. Ecuador turns bad. Paraguay and
Argentina struggle. Chile, too.
There is a vast hot zone that runs from western Asia to the
Middle East to Southeast Asia. The bed of coronavirus infections includes
Ukraine, Turkey, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iran, the stan’s, Pakistan, India,
Bangladesh, Burma, Thailand, Cambodia and Malaysia. It is as if a
covid-infected broom swept straight across all these nations in one smooth
motion.
And this major hot zone borders China, the corrupt nation
that released the COVID-19 bioterrorism upon the Earth. China, the CCP, will
pay for their crime against humanity. Karma is a funny thing and China should
understand it more than anyone. The stan’s, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Burma
and Laos are China’s southern neighbors. Hey China, do you need to borrow a cup
of covid-infected sugar? Karma, pay-back, occurs in funny ways sometimes. Will
the variants travel north into mainland China. Viruses know no borders.
Next focusing on the US, the troubled states are highlighted
in the list below with their projections on when the active cases curve will
peak-out (max strain on healthcare system) as per the Keystone Model. The US states
below have flat or rising active cases curves.
The vaccination program is helping. Folks following masking
and social distancing guidelines are also helping. The warmer weather will also
help defeat the virus. It is very encouraging that larger events are occurring,
such as baseball games, and new cases are held in check. The United States may
finally be ‘turning the corner’ as King Donnie Trump repeated daily for 5
months last year until he landed in the hospital sick with the China Flu.
On the bad side, the variants are spreading, and if they
follow the lead of other nations, a parabolic rise in US cases may be on tap.
It is not showing in the charts and data and in fact the US picture is the
rosiest it has been over the last couple months.
Despite the spring break shenanigans, holiday parties,
businesses and schools reopening, baseball games and people enjoying
springtime, the daily cases numbers are flat. That steadiness, where the
pandemic does not appear to be getting worse in the states, is testimony to the
success of the vaccination program. Provide a golf clap for the healthcareworkers.
The states on the bad list below have active cases curves
moving higher. Vermont is removed from the list as its active cases curve rolls
over lower (a good thing). Vermont peaked about 10 days before the projection
by the Keystone Model. Massachusetts has also rolled its active cases chart
over so it is removed from the bad list below. Ditto New York. The charts are
the most encouraging in a couple months. The projected tops may occur a few
days earlier than noted.
South Carolina (Third Wave) (data
is suspect; probably an underreporting of daily cases)
1/16/21 New Case Peak Date (daily
cases starting to creep higher)
2/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher so daily case numbers are wrong)
3/18/21 New Case Peak Date (recent
cases becoming elevated)
4/15/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
3/27/21 New Case Peak Date
4/24/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve is trying to flatten)
4/1/21 New Case Peak Date
4/29/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (trying to flatten for the last week)
4/1/21
New Case Peak Date (highest cases for the third wave)
4/29/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date (may have peaked 4/19/21, curve is trying to
flatten)
4/2/21 New Case Peak Date
4/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/6/21 New Case Peak Date
5/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (may have peaked 4/16/21, trying to flatten)
4/6/21 New Case Peak Date
5/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve is trying to flatten)
4/7/21 New Case Peak Date
5/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve is trying to flatten)
4/7/21 New Case Peak Date
5/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/7/21 New Case Peak Date
5/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/8/21 New Case Peak Date
5/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve trying to flatten)
4/9/21 New Case Peak Date
5/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/9/21 New Case Peak Date
5/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve trying to flatten)
4/12/21 New Case Peak Date
5/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/12/21 New Case Peak Date
5/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (chart continues floating higher instead of dropping if the daily cases
were correct)
4/13/21 New Case Peak Date
5/11/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (active cases curve oddly going down so this would be expected to curl
higher; the case numbers are likely underreported or there is some other
problem with the data)
4/14/21 New Case Peak Date
5/12/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve is trying to flatten)
4/14/21 New Case Peak Date
5/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/16/21 New Case Peak Date
5/16/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/16/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever 11/20/20, 4/13/21 and 4/16/21)
5/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/16/21 New Case Peak Date
5/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/16/21 New Case Peak Date
5/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/17/21 New Case Peak Date
5/15/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/17/21 New Case Peak Date
5/15/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/19/21 New Case Peak Date
5/17/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/22/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of third wave)
5/20/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/22/21 New Case Peak Date
5/20/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/23/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases of this fourth wave)
5/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/23/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases of fourth wave)
5/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date
Oregon and Washington on the US West Coast require close
watching since something nasty is going on there. Alaska may be in for a
challenge ahead. New Hampshire is proud of its vaccination program but its
numbers are shaky. Louisiana is also a worry. Michigan remains in deep trouble
battling B117.
As the US charts and the state data above show, the pandemic
is slightly improving. The active cases curves are trying to flatten and roll
over lower for a majority of states and if the current positivity continues,
good news may be coming in the days ahead.
The variants can spoil the party so vigilance is required
for Michigan, Illinois, Maine, New Hampshire, the Carolina’s, Louisiana,
Oregon, Washington and Alaska.
The vaccine wall is hit where demand for shots is dropping
off. This is concerning since it may reverse the hard work of the shot-giver’s.
Kansas and Iowa are turning down vaccine shipments. Louisiana turned down a
shipment last week. This is troubling news.
The Los Angeles Dodgers offer a section of the stadium to those
that are fully-vaccinated. Good luck to those idiots. You have to bring your
health documents, then a lanyard hangs around your head, concession areas are
limited, and you still wear a mask. In addition, you do not know who you are sitting next to, he may have slipped the attendant five bucks ($5) to get a good seat. If that is your
idea of fun, go for it. It sounds like vaccinated people are still doing what unvaccinated people are doing which is not a good selling point to convince people to take the shot.
The country will become more divided between those willing,
and not willing, to roll up their sleeve for the shot. Note that the people choosing not to be vaccinated are not typically criticizing the vaccinated folks, however, the vaccinated people are doing the bulk of the lip-flapping, finger-wagging and obnoxious useless cajoling against
the unvaccinated folks. If folks want to convince others to become vaccinated, perhaps dear ole Mom's saying that 'you catch more bees with honey than you do with vinegar' is good advice.
These states may begin a new wave higher and require close
study; Arizona, Texas, Colorado, Iowa, Nebraska and Tennessee. The following
states are the best at handling the pandemic currently; Georgia, Missouri (but
dally cases starting to rise), Alabama (but daily cases starting to rise),
Oklahoma, Arkansas, Mississippi, Kansas, Wyoming, Montana, Nevada and Utah. Kansas
hits the grim 5K deaths milestone.
The US Congress passes a bill that addresses discrimination
and crimes against Asian Americans. The US is not a racist nation as many sick
individuals would like you to believe. All of you know that from your daily
interactions with your coworkers, friends and neighbors. All of us are
different and we all get along fine. A major portion of the hate in America is
simply coming from the media and cable news outlets. This hate rhetoric from
the media incites the nutcases so they run out and do crazy stuff like the
Capitol Hill riot. The craziness fuels more eyeballs on media to consume the
sensationalism.
If there is a problem with violence against Asians (that the
vast majority of the country does not see, condone or participate in; most of
us have Asian friends and do not hear about all this violence, nor do they), it
is centered around the race hate cities of Atlanta, New York, San Francisco and
Los Angeles. They should clean up their racist cesspools and not drag the rest
of the nation into their sick battles.
The WHO tries to place a guilt trip on wealthy nations
saying vaccine sharing is a test of their character. Shut up idiots. WHO lays
in bed with the filthy CCP and aided the Chinese communists in delaying telling
the world about the virus so China could buy every available inventory of PPE.
WHO has a credibility problem. They just released the report about the
origination of coronavirus which was useless, as predicted ahead of time by
many, and only served to reinforce the concept that they kneel in front of the
CCP each morning and lick Dictator Xi’s shoes.
Medical professionals are worried that the variants will
spread around the world and defeat all the good work that the vaccines are
doing. They say the vaccines remain effective against the new variants but at
the same time are racing to develop and test booster shots.
The medical community keeps beating the COVID-19 pandemic
drum louder chanting, “Nobody is safe until everyone is safe.” They stress that
the pandemic is not over until it ends everywhere in the world which is of
course true, however, people are very self-centered and narcissistic these days.
World leaders are discussing vaccine inequality, or equality, or equity, whichever
confusing term you want to use, that few people understand, but solutions
typically involve using other people’s money.
The race between the vaccinations and variants continues.
For the last month and one-half, the US wave four was worrisome but it may end
up as more bark than bite with the vaccinations gaining a lead in the race.
However, there are different races going on around the world and the variants
are winning many. Parts of Europe remain in distress as well as the Middle
East, Southeast Asia, and Central and South America. The vaccinations make the
difference in America.
India, the Middle East, the Cambodia peninsula and Central
America are major worries due to their charts and data. These hot zone regions
dictate the pandemic path ahead for the world.
Continue watching the US daily cases to note the progress of
wave four. As long as the daily cases are below the 7-day MA trend line, they
will keep pulling the moving average lower and lower which is great. We will
celebrate someday when US cases reach zero. The highest day of daily new cases
for the US wave four is 85,498 cases. Reducing it by 8% as per the Keystone
Model, is 78,658 cases. As long as the US daily new cases do not exceed 79K
going forward, America is going to be in a happy place in May. Hopefully, the
world can catch up before a super-variant swallows us all.
Note Added Sunday, 4/25/21, at 1:00 PM EST: There are 147.5 million total global coronavirus cases. 3.1 million people have perished from the China Flu. 125 million have recovered. In the US, 32.8 million people have been stricken with COVID-19. Nearly 586K Americans are dead from the Wuhan Virus and 25.3 million have recovered. India reports 349.3K daily new cases another record. There are no descriptive words remaining for India; they have all been used-up. India is living an actual real-time Hell on Earth where you watch your loved ones die in front of you and there is nothing you can do to help them. At the same time you feel guilty as to why it is not you. Indians will suffer long term anguish and mental pain far after the burials are over. 2,761 people die in India yesterday the deadliest day of the pandemic. Spain reports the most daily new cases in 2 months.
Note Added Sunday Evening, 4/25/21: The EU says Americans that are fully vaccinated will be allowed to visit Europe this summer. Whitehouse covid adviser Andy Slavitt says vaccinations are the key to freedom. He is trying to gently encourage people to roll up their sleeves and take the shot. 8% of Americans are not showing up for their second shots of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines either because they feel they are protected enough or they hear stories about side effects. The 240 million vaccinated Americans goal, explained above for herd immunity, was calculated by allowing for a 10% non-return for the second shots. Thus, the 8% is no biggie, yet, but if there are 10% or more that stop coming back for the second shot, that is a problem because it would be outside what is expected for vaccines and mean that other negative factors are at play causing the hesitancy. The horrific Iraqi hospital fire has claimed 82 lives and injured over 100. The US may send unused vaccine to India. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella pledges to help provide oxygen supplies and other medical equipment to India. Nadella opines, "I am heartbroken by the current situation in India." Malaysia considers limiting flights to and from India.
Note Added Monday Morning, 4/26/21, at 3:00 AM EST: India reports 354K daily new cases another record and the fifth consecutive day above 300K infections per day. 2,806 Indians die yesterday the deadliest day of the pandemic. Over 17 million people have been stricken with COVID-19 in India. Japan daily new cases remain elevated and 49 die yesterday the most in 6 weeks. France finally flattens its active cases curve. Wave 3 began in France back in December so it is a long time coming and will create positivity in Europe. Canada is finally flattening its active cases curve and now needs the roll over lower to create the bell shape to prove that better times are ahead. If the Canucks keep doing what they are doing for another week or so, the bad covid situation will see dramatic positive improvement. In the States, daily new cases are at 35K a lower number which is great but it is the Sunday data which tends to be the lightest. The 3-day MA trend line for the US daily new cases has now printed 2 lower highs and 2 lower lows confirming a downtrend. Americans rejoice as Wave 4 is rolling over and dying and proving to be only a minor surge. The USA did not look good a couple weeks ago but the vaccinations came on strong to help save the day. 273 Americans die yesterday which is the lowest number over the last year more positive news. Over 586K Americans have succumbed to the deadly China Flu. Oregon remains in the spotlight since its daily cases are rising faster than nearly any other state. The weekend daily cases are lower than the Friday peak but that would be expected. Ditto Washington state. Michigan continues to struggle. The daily cases are down for a week but the active cases chart continues higher and higher and 126 Michiganders die yesterday, on a Sunday when data would be expected to be lighter, the deadliest day since January. There are states of concern such as Michigan, Oregon and Washington, however, overall, the US is improving nicely and appears to be heading in a very positive direction. Colorado needs to stay on guard because daily new cases continue higher in wave 4 and the active cases curve is starting to curl higher (bad).
Note Added Monday Afternoon, 4/26/21: The US plans to ship its unused 60 million doses of AstraZeneca vaccine to other nations. AstraZeneca is not yet approved for emergency use in the States. The vaccine wall is hit in America where demand for shots is falling off so there are ample supplies available. Hospitals and vaccination sites are seeing a low demand for the J&J vaccine. The halt of the vaccine and negative publicity, even though the risks are reported to be "minuscule," as Fauci says, has created a lack of confidence in J&J as well as other vaccines. At a Florida vaccination site, less than 300 people showed-up to roll-up their sleeves. 3K J&J and other vaccine doses are left over at the site. The public has lost enthusiasm for vaccinations. The CDC is expected to provide new guidance on mask-wearing and decreeing that masks are not needed in public if people maintain a few feet of distance between one another. Many Americans are smart and are already out in public in this manner since spring broke. It was always silly to wear a mask if you are on a hiking trail or on a bicycle. What about the jackasses sitting by themselves, inside a car, with all the windows rolled-up, and they are wearing a mask? That is a hilarious sight. These folks probably hide under the bed when they get home. The CDC waits for confirmation data before changing guidelines to avoid having to reverse a decree a couple weeks later.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 4/27/21, at 3:00 AM EST: India reports 319K daily new cases the sixth consecutive day above 300K new infections per day. Thankfully, it is less than the prior day's 354K record high, but obviously the human tragedy is historic. Perhaps the peak in daily cases has occurred but one day does not make a trend. Even after the new daily cases peak, hospitalizations do not typically peak until a week or two later and deaths do not peak until a week or two after that. India reports nearly 2,764 deaths yesterday the last three days the most deadly of the entire pandemic. The US and other nations are coordinating plans sending aid to India. Modi pledges to build 500 oxygen plants but that is of worthless help to the folks aiding their loved ones dying in the hospital parking lot. Cement curbs are pillows.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 4/27/21, at 3:30 AM EST: The US reports 47.5K daily new cases. It is nice to see wave four getting beaten into submission. The covid news has been negative in America the last couple months but turns positive over the last week or so. The daily cases are below the 7-day MA trend line at 58.3K for 3 days and this is when the rubber hits the road to see if further drops are coming. It looks good. The 7-day MA is sloping (trending) lower. This is great. The 3-day MA prints 2 lower highs and 2 lower lows verifying the downtrend. Last summer, the US daily new cases ran between 30K and 55K. If we can get into that range and down through the range, it will be confetti-throwing time. Yesterday's 47.5K daily cases is within that range. The wet blanket is being pulled away. Michigan's active cases chart finally peaks (4/25/21) and pulls back a touch. More good news. Michigan can recover if it keeps doing what it is doing for another couple weeks. There is concern that Oregon may become the new Michigan. Oregon's daily cases jumped above 1K on Friday verifying a strong uptrend, however, the daily case numbers have pulled back form 1K the last 3 days. This is very good news but it is the weekend data so further vigilance is required. Oregon's active cases curve is ramping higher so that will need to flatten and roll over to prove that the state is on the right track. Washington state is another concern and it is of course on top of Oregon geographically. They are neighboring West Coast port states. Let's see what Washington shows..... oh-no. There is always a snake in the woodpile. Washington state reports 2.4K daily new cases the highest in 3 months. Washington is clearly in its wave four that is expanding like Oregon 3 days ago. Washington deaths jump to the highest in 7 weeks. The CDC would be smart to focus genomic testing in Washington and Oregon to find out what is going on out there. Colorado was ramping-up in new daily cases but enjoys a 3-day reprieve like Oregon. Pennsylvania drops its test positivity rate from 9.6% to 8.6% over the last week. The change is an improvement but is slow and gradual. These test positivity rates need to be sub 5%, and preferably sub 1%, and lower, because only then is a testing, tracking and tracing program workable. America's COVID-19 pandemic is looking the best it has in 2 months. However, a major focus must be maintained on Oregon, Washington, Louisiana and North Carolina as potential problem areas and developing hot spots.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 4/27/21, at 3:50 AM EST: Wet blanket time again. The good news never seems to last long in the middle of a once in a century pandemic. The US Defense Department is investigating over a dozen cases of myocarditis in military folks that took the Pfizer or Moderna mRNA vaccines. Myocarditis is a fancy word that means inflammation of the heat muscle. Myocarditis can lead to abnormal or irregular heart rhythms (arrhythmia) and the inflamed nature of the muscle slightly decreases its functionality. Israel is investigating several cases and one case also appears in Spain. The myocarditis appears to develop after the second shot. Are people finding out about this information on social media sites and through military families? It likely plays a role in creating the increased vaccine hesitancy especially with less people showing-up for the second shot. VAERS reports over 45 cases of the myocarditis and about two-thirds are men. Both the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines are causing about the same amount of incidents (slightly more Moderna cases). If anyone experiences heart pain at any time up to 4 days after taking the shot, immediately call your doctor.
Note Added Tuesday, 4/27/21, at 1:00 PM EST: The CDC releases new mask guidelines providing a chart that only a PhD would love. The average American's eyes will glaze-over looking at the sheet of guidelines in four different colors, numerous words, and the pictures have a person sometimes wearing a mask sometimes not. If the chart is photocopied on a black and white printer, the colors are useless. The chart is a confusing mess. It is put together by smart people for other smart people to reference. In a pandemic, you are messaging regular Americans and many did not go to college and do not want to spend time figuring out what is allowed and not allowed. To reach the broadest audience possible, you must write to a 5th grade level. And the number one rule in writing copy (on artwork or a chart) is to use the least amount of words possible in large bold print. The CDC is trying to gently persuade folks to get vaccinated but that message will go over many heads. American eyes will scan over the busy messaging on the chart to the point that they become dizzy and have to sit down and sip a glass of water. The CDC must have too many too-highly-paid psychologists providing nonsensical advice. There are four categories that appear of interest; Fully-Vac Non-Mask, Full Vac Mask, Unvac Non-Mask and Unvac Mask. Maybe a sheet of paper can be separated into four quadrants showing the four categories in big boxes, in big bold letters only, and under each box title, simply list a few items that people can do using the least words as possible. Keep the print large as possible. No need for pictures and colors. What does not make sense is that fully-vaccinated people can attend family events and small gatherings with multiple households and with unvaccinated people and not wear a mask, but, if you attend a crowded event like a parade you should wear a mask. At small gatherings and family events, everyone is hugging and kissing, and singing, and carrying on, but if you attend a ball game or other event, you are tending to stay away from people, but the need for masks are switched. Maybe the larger crowd means someone there is likely infected so masks are needed? Also, if multiple unvaccinated people are at the family event, they may spread the virus. Further, the US states are in different stages of the pandemic. Michigan remains a mess while other states are holding the pandemic at bay. Should the guidelines be different for different states? The CDC has an unenviable job of sorting out this mess. CDC Director Walensky was asked about the states at different stages and how that impacts the guidelines to which she replied, "get vaccinated." If you simply place the four categories mentioned above on a sheet of paper, right away everyone knows which group they are in so they can immediately read what matters to them and ignore the other clutter on the piece of paper. The human behavior aspect of the pandemic is fascinating. Keep things simple for people. Many folks do not follow or understand the mask rules and instead simply use common sense. Here in southwestern Pennsylvania, folks tend to not wear masks outside regardless of vaccinations, or what the CDC says, but if you walk into a store or any other building of course everyone has a mask on. The CDC is too far out in the weeds and needs to simplify the messaging.
Note Added Tuesday, 4/27/21, at 3:00 PM EST: Studies, hospital data and anecdotal evidence is indicating that young people, 30 to 60 years old, with high-risk conditions, are the most at-risk group currently for coronavirus. If you are in that age group and have a heart condition, or diabetes or are 20 to 50 pounds overweight, that should be figured into your decision about taking the vaccine (if you become sick, you may become real sick). West Virginia is offering a $100 savings bond to young folks willing to take the vaccination. Other states are offering free drinks, doughnuts and other trinkets and beads.
Note Added Tuesday, 4/27/21, at 4:00 PM EST: Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla is interviewed on CNBC. He says Pfizer is working on both an injectable and oral vaccine that may be ready by the end of the year. Bourla expects to announce news on the project during the summer. He says Pfizer promised 1 billion doses this year of its mRNA vaccine and is on pace to supply 3 billion. Pfizer has a three-tier pricing scheme for the vaccine. The wealthier nations pay full price. Developing nations pay one-half that price. Third-world and poor nations receive the vaccine at cost. When asked about the approval of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine for children between 12 and 15 years old, Bourla says the studies are very clear. The vaccine is safe for that age group and it is only a "question of wills" to get it through the approval process.
Note Added Tuesday Evening, 4/27/21: 22 US states are delivering less than 70% of their vaccine doses as per the CDC vaccination map. These states are hitting the vaccine wall as the people enthusiastic about receiving the shot have already done so. Now the arm-twisting begins. Northeastern states such as Maine and New Hampshire, and New Mexico, have used well over 80% of their vaccine allotment so they have a population willing to roll up their sleeves and an efficient logistics and delivery system. The US vaccination rate drops to an average of 2.5 million doses per day. The controversy deepens over schools and universities mandating vaccinations. One private school is humorously only allowing non-vaccinated students and faculty, but they are dead serious. Many HBCU (historically black colleges and universities) are making vaccinations mandatory.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 4/28/21, at 5:00 AM EST: India reports 363K new infections yesterday a new record after the prior day's slight pullback. The horror is not ending. The US, Germany, France, UK and other nations are sending aid. India's total death count is above 201K. India is likely underreporting the numbers. Journalists on the street say the deaths reported are only those that occur in the hospital. Deaths at home or in the hospital parking lot are not counted. The iron encasing the crematoriums is melting since the facilities are not made to run 24/7. The dead bodies, however, keep piling up. Makeshift crematoriums are quickly placed near hospitals. Bricklayers build 1 foot high (30 cm) curbs that create 12 foot by 12 foot (4mx4m) areas that can burn a dozen bodies at a time. Families of the dead and uninfected people search for wood to keep the funeral pyres burning. "And our love become a funeral pyre," as Jim Morrison and The Doors play Light My Fire.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 4/28/21, at 6:00 AM EST: The United States is nearly at 33 million coronavirus cases with over 587K deaths. Yesterday is 52K daily new cases which is great news as the numbers remain subdued. We need the numbers far lower but for right now it is most important that the trend remains down. The 7-day MA for the daily cases is at 57K and moving lower (good). Deaths are not good at 885 souls yesterday above the 7-day MA flat trend line at 722 deaths. As mentioned above, the at-risk group right now is folks between 30 and 60 years old (younger people) that are obese or have pre-existing conditions. Over 80% of the old folks are vaccinated and many seniors already died last year. Thus, the virus next comes for you, young people. Michigan remains in rough shape but the active cases curve is rolling over and they are on the mend if they stay the course. Oregon, Washington state, Colorado, Louisiana, Pennsylvania and the Carolina's remain states of concern. Texas is starting to look a bit shaky with daily new cases and deaths remaining elevated.
Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 4/28/21: Nearly all baseball stadiums in America are going cashless and will only accept debit or credit cards, or smartphone payments. COVID-19 is a convenient excuse for companies and governments to make changes that impact your future lives. Many cities have legislated new restrictions preventing businesses from going cashless since it hurts the common people the most. The workaround in this sick crony capitalism system is trying to push forward reverse-ATM kiosks that take dollars and give you a prepaid card that can then be used to navigate the cashless world. Stupid humans are always anxious to give up their liberty for a bit of perceived safety or convenience. The CDC data indicates that covid is not spread by cash or via surfaces. Remember, early on in the pandemic, there was fear of catching coronavirus from anything even the cardboard on Amazon packages. Humorously, more germs and bacteria have been found on cards and smartphones than cash. In addition, standing in a jammed line in front of the prepaid card kiosk, spewing germs, then using the machine that everyone else is continually using after they pick their nose, and then taking that prepaid card and handing it to a vendor or ticket taker, or using it in a machine that everyone else is touching and using, is somehow supposed to be a healthier or safer alternative than simply handing over cash in a quick easy transaction? Businesses want to go cashless because it will reduce expenses increasing profits. Governments want to go cashless since they can control your life electronically, taking taxes out automatically before you ever see the money. Humans will get what they deserve.
Note Added Wednesday Evening, 4/28/21: The CDC receives criticism over the new mask guidelines that look a lot like the old guidelines. The guidance is complicated and people are unhappy that after being vaccinated, masks are still required at large events such as baseball games, concerts, parades and campaign rallies. The vaccine wall is hit as the demand for shots wanes. Part of the vaccine skepticism is because after people receive the shot, 2 shots in the case of Pfizer and Moderna, over a 1-month period, they are told to wear a mask. Many Americans throw up their arms and say if I have to keep wearing a mask, regardless of receiving the vaccine or not, then why bother? There are many moral, ethical, political, governmental and societal issues at play during this once in a century pandemic. A Pittsburgh media outlet asked a few people why they are not vaccinated and one lady said she is "waiting her turn." The interviewer exclaimed, "It is your turn now, everyone can get the vaccine," to which the lady replied, "are you sure?" People need simpler messaging. Worries increase that some vaccine may be wasted if the demand for shots does not pick up. A batch of Pfizer vaccine was about to go bad but fortunately, the word got out, and people flocked to the location and nothing was wasted. The Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines require about 3 hours to thaw out to be readied for injection. After that, the Pfizer vaccine will stay good for about 5 days and the Moderna will remain good for about 30 days in the refrigerator. The lack of vaccine demand may be trickier to handle for the healthcare workers using the Pfizer vaccine but they are professionals and will pay close attention to the scheduling and efficient use of the doses. In addition, Pfizer said they are now shipping vaccine in smaller quantity boxes as logistics adjust for the demand. President Biden speaks before a joint session of Congress and proclaims that the 'United States has turned the corner on the pandemic'. Didn't he learn the lesson from the last guy in office? It does appear that the US wave four is petering out and more positive times are ahead, however, there are still a couple months that need to play out to cast this happy outcome in stone. In an outside speech earlier in the day, Biden was wearing a mask even though he was outside. The president tells a reporter that if they were sitting down together they both should use a mask even though both are fully vaccinated. It is comical. According to the CDC guidelines, the president and the reporter could actually sit and talk without masks on. The American people are not paying attention to this gibberish anymore since the messages are mixed and confusing.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 4/29/21, at 3:00 AM EST: The US reports 57K daily new cases yesterday, an elevated number and above the 7-day MA trend line at 56K. No worries. It is common for a couple data points to pop above a trend line but then to fall back below to resume the trend lower. The US is trending in a good direction but people should not be celebrating as yet. US deaths pop to 994 souls. The deaths are above the 7-day MA at for the last two days. America got down to the 720-740 deaths range last September/October but that is as low as it got before starting higher into the disastrous December/January wave three. The 7-day is down to 730-ish, the same range, but moving flat, just like late last summer and early Fall, having difficulty dropping any further. If vaccines are supposed to prevent death, why have deaths fallen but now hit a brick wall and can only base sideways? Perhaps the success of vaccines preventing death is overstated by the scientists? About 2% of Americans die from covid after being infected and this number has been steady for several months. The advantage this time for the US, however, is that we are going into warm weather when people are outside more, transmitting the virus less, as opposed to late last year we were moving into cold weather and starting to go indoors increasing infections. Moderna says their vaccine can be stored in refrigerators for up to 3 months without impacting efficacy. This positive development will allow the vaccine to be distributed easier around the world. In a Bloomberg interview, Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel says 3 billion vaccine doses will be produced by the end of 2022. He says the variants are concerning and everyone will need a booster shot next year. Bancel is worried about the wintertime approaching the southern hemisphere and the variants perhaps producing variants. Bancel does not discuss the pricing structure that Moderna is charging for the vaccine. Testing is ongoing to determine the efficacy of the Moderna vaccine against India's dangerous double mutant B1617 strain.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 4/29/21, at 4:00 AM EST: India remains a disaster with 105K total deaths and counting. India reports 379K daily new cases yesterday, sadly, another record. These insane daily infections are record-setting for the entire global pandemic. India is the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic. Prime Minister Modi will likely pay a political price in the future as he is being blamed more each day for not preparing the country properly between the virus waves. There are a million new infections in India every 3 days. India is over 300K daily new cases per day for 8 straight days. 3,647 Indians die yesterday the deadliest day of the pandemic. People will carry physical and emotional scars from the human tragedy for years to come. The suffering is on an epic scale. India hospitals remain overwhelmed. The US issues a Level 4 Travel Advisory a serious warning for Americans not to travel to India and any US citizens in India should leave as soon as possible. Columbia, South America, is in a major outbreak right now while India receives all the attention. Ditto the Cambodian peninsula that has been highlighted over the last couple weeks. It is a global hotspot. Cambodia reports the highest daily case numbers ever. Thailand is in bad shape and the economic forecasts for the nation are lowered due to the outbreak. Vietnam, that has weathered the covid storm, is extremely concerned as infections appear. Malaysia reports the highest daily cases for the current wave. The pandemic rages on around the world. Turkey remains in serious trouble and Dictator Erdogan places the nation in lockdown. Coronavirus will likely remain a big part of everyone's life going forward.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 4/29/21, at 7:30 AM EST: In a television interview on the left-leaning MSNBC cable news outlet, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio announces plans to fully reopen the economy on 7/1/21. Broadway will reopen in September (what does fully reopen mean?; after 2 months of rehearsals?). The pandemic is a constant confusing assortment of mixed messages from political and medical leaders. Nobody is in charge but everybody is in charge. Americans do not know who to listen to especially when messages conflict. De Blasio says schools will be back at full strength in September. De Blasio makes a lot of promises but provides no further details or information for his happy proclamations. New York Governor Cuomo continues to refuse to step down as the nursing home covid death numbers scandal, and sexual harassment allegations, continue unraveling. As the US economy continues reopening, the automobile traffic and pollution is up to 2019 levels. People are driving their own cars due to coronavirus creating the rapid expansion in road activity.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 4/29/21, at 8:00 AM EST: Thailand is recognizing the seriousness of the escalating coronavirus outbreak and imposes new restrictions on foreign travelers entering the country. Good news from Germany where the vaccination rate exceeds 1 million doses yesterday. The Deutschland receives a positive lift after a few weeks of doom and gloom. Germany crosses the 83K deaths grim milestone. Germany's active cases curve may have peaked on Sunday, 4/25/21, which would be cause for real celebration and throwing confetti. Watch to see if it rolls over now to form the bell shape and signal happier times for the Germans. The next few days are critical. From the country list above, the Keystone Model forecasts Germany's flattening and roll over of the active cases curve to be 5/13/21 so a flattening and roll over now, 2 weeks before expected, would be great news. As mentioned a few times, the world is becoming far better at treating coronavirus, and the vaccinations are obviously helping, especially a first dose as evidenced in the UK and now the US, so the actual roll over's in the active cases curves for states and countries are occurring faster than the 11 and 28-day periods used by the Keystone Model. The model will not be changed because you do not want to alter the data set in the middle of the pandemic, however, the authoritarian, communist and dictatorship-style nations are having success at seeing the peak in active cases occur only a few days after the peak in daily new cases, instead of the standard 11 days, and the Western countries, and US states, that are freer nations and regions, are having success at rolling the active cases curve over in a couple weeks time rather than the standard 28 days. This is good news. Most of the mutations are with the spike protein so the vaccines are remaining effective. Despite the positivity, India, and nations all across Southeast Asia through the Cambodian peninsula to Malaysia, and countries in South America such as Columbia and Paraguay, and several African nations, continue experiencing covid Hell on Earth. Paraguay reports the last two days as the deadliest days of the entire pandemic.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 4/29/21, at 8:30 AM EST: India's deadly virus strain appears in China. Is it karma? The China Flu travels full circle around the globe back to where it started.
Note Added Thursday Evening, 4/29/21: France announces plans for a phased reopening of its economy. Vaccinations are increasing at a fast pace in Europe. France President Macron says all restrictions will end on the economy on 6/30/21.
Note Added Friday Morning, 4/30/21, at 2:30 AM EST: The world is at 151 million total coronavirus cases crossing above the grim 150 million milestone. Brazil crosses the tragic 400K death milestone. India's horror does not end. Yesterday, daily new cases hit another all-time high at 387K with 3,501 deaths. The bodies are stacking up to such a great extent, the masons cannot keep up and are not even laying brick curbs for the makeshift crematoriums anymore. Empty parking lot areas are used to burn bodies in small funeral pyres that fill the air with black smoke 24/7. Family members see the images of their loved ones in the smoke. Russia has been flatlining, at elevated levels, with daily new cases for a couple months and is looking shaky with 9.3K daily new cases reported yesterday teasing 6-week highs. Malaysia reports over 3.3K daily new cases the highest of the current wave. Cambodia reports another day of record daily new cases. South American countries such as Columbia, Bolivia and Paraguay are in bad shape with cases counts on the rise. Japan reports 5.8K daily new cases another high for the current wave. Japan is having serious trouble getting a handle on the pandemic. There may be a nasty new variant floating around that island nation. Spain needs to remain vigilant. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are messes reporting more record highs in daily new cases. It looks like the virus is coming for you, China; it is knocking at your border doors.
Note Added Friday Morning, 4/30/21, at 3:00 AM EST: The total covid deaths in the US are over 589K with 870 souls dying yesterday. US daily new cases are 59K above the 7-day MA at 55K. Tennessee republican Governor Bill Lee stands on a soapbox and decrees,"COVID-19 is no longer a health emergency in our state." Wow. If we all had known you could get rid of the China Flu by proclamation, we would have done that a year ago. Lee may end up as a jackass since the decree may be premature. Tennessee's active cases curve is moving sideways; they will need that to move down. Only 25% of the state is fully vaccinated but Lee proclaims that the "vaccine changes everything and it is a new season in Tennessee." Lee removes the authority of the local officials to issue mask mandates. In a couple weeks, we can see how it works out for Tennessee. Texas and other states have relaxed guidelines and it has not impacted the progress of the virus to any great extent. The reason probably has more to do with all Americans, across all states, following the same general rule for the last year where you do not bother with a mask when outdoors or when not around people but do use a mask when talking to someone directly, or in a big crowd, or if you step inside a building. Many people simply continue with this 'habit' despite what the governors and local officials say. Americans are known for simple common sense. Michigan continues to have trouble shaking the virus but keeps making small incremental progress. Illinois needs to remain vigilant as its daily new cases and deaths hint that they may start to trend higher.
Note Added Friday Morning, 4/30/21, at 4:00 AM EST: Today is Biden's 100th day in office so a report card is typically reviewed. Sleepy Joe is receiving high marks on handling the pandemic. Trump's supporters try to steal credit but the logistics nightmare this year with the vaccine distribution was handled by the Biden folks and had nothing to do with King Donnie. Trump wrote the blank check of taxpayer's money to the pharma companies telling them to find a vaccine. The CDC COVID Data Tracker shows the vaccination rate continuing to drop now at the 2.5 million doses per day trending lower. 237,360,493 total vaccine doses have been administered to Americans. 20 million are credited to Trump. King Donnie missed his goal of 20 million shots in arms by the end of 2020 but achieved the 20 million before he left office on 1/20/21. Thus, 217 million vaccine doses (237-20) were administered within President Biden's first 100 days in office. There will be bragging today that Sleepy Joey promised 100 million shots in arms during the campaign and then upped it to 200 million and met both goals. They were easy goals that were never in jeopardy of not occurring. A recent poll says 60% of the unvaccinated people do not ever plan to take the shot which may delay herd immunity. However, at the same time, there may be far more, millions and millions more, Americans that had coronavirus than anyone realizes, and have natural antibodies, which helps achieve the herd immunity goal. May and June will tell the tale. President Biden says he is thinking about making the vaccine mandatory for the military. Biden is leaving the decision up to the military but says he has not ruled out possible intervention to make the shot mandatory. The Whitehouse is counting the heads towards herd immunity. If the military and children are vaccinated, that is millions more bodies that move the country to the herd immunity goal. The US restricts travel from Inida to the United States due to the massive outbreak. The US may not want the nasty B1617 variant on its shores but it is already here as genomic testing verifies.
Note Added Friday Morning, 4/30/21, at 7:00 AM EST: Speak of the devil. This is an important development. The CDC releases information regarding the period between February 2020 and March 2021. The CDC says the total infections in the US may be four times (4x) the official reports. The CDC says 114.6 million total infections have occurred which is one-third of America's 330 million population. 97.1 million people have shown systematic illness. 5.6 million have been hospitalized. With 115 million Americans already infected, the question is how long do natural antibodies last? 6 months? A year? The same question goes for vaccines with initial information indicating that the vaccinations will protect the person for at least 6 months. Doctors say the protection provided with the vaccine is better than natural antibodies but of course they would say that since they want you to roll-up your sleeve. The chronology is using the 240 million number for the amount of people that need to be vaccinated to reach herd immunity. It has been explained several times and it accounts for people that do not show up for the second shots and other factors. The number factors in 15% of Americans (50 million) as having been sick with covid and having natural antibodies. The good news is that the CDC says the infected folks are 115 million strong through March. We are in May tomorrow so another 9.6 million people can be counted as infected if the 9.6 million infections per month average rate would hold. Let's not get too rambunctious and simply say that 120 million Americans have had the China Flu and have some measure of natural antibodies. Taking away the 50 million already factored into the exercise is 70 million (120-50) difference. Thus, the 240 million target number for vaccinations can be reduced by 70 more since more people have been sick with covid than anyone realized. This takes the target number down to 170 million Americans that need vaccinated to reach herd immunity. The CDC says 100 million are fully vaccinated. That takes us down to 70 million more people needing vaccinated to reach herd immunity. 40 million have one dose so halving the number to see how many would be fully vaccinated is 20 million so we need 50 million more people vaccinated to reach herd immunity which is great news; this is 100 million more doses. At 2.5 million doses per day, this is 40 days to herd immunity; 6/8/21. June!! Only 5 or 6 weeks away! This is based on the 2.5 million daily dose rate remaining steady and assumes that the one-third of Americans already infected with COVID-19 have natural antibodies that last a year or at least many months. When 115 million people have been infected with covid and have antibodies, it is far easier to reach herd immunity as the math shows. The vaccinations deserve a lot of credit in driving down the case numbers and deaths, however, an equal amount of credit must be given to the fact that far more people have been sick with COVID-19 in America than anyone ever realized, until now. The asymptomatic nature of the disease kept many sick people in the shadows that worked through minor bouts of illness without seeing a doctor. It is sad that one-third of America has been stricken with covid but at the same time it is fantastic news from the herd immunity perspective. The covid illnesses, and resulting natural immunity, are playing a key role, along with vaccinations, in rolling the US wave four over to the downside and placing the herd immunity goal within reach in a few short weeks.
Note Added Friday Morning, 4/30/21, at 8:00 AM EST: Europe drops into a double-dip recession due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. The United States continues the mask mandate for public transportation (planes, trains, busses) and a $1,500 fine will be imposed on violators.
Note Added Friday Afternoon, 4/30/21: Dr Fauci is appearing in interviews today telling folks to make sure they take the second vaccination shot to receive full protection. Data is showing that about 8% of the people are not showing up for the second shot, which is concerning, but past vaccine data indicates that typically 10% do not show up for a second shot. So the 8% is not a big worry now but Fauci likely wants to nip this behavior in the bud and make sure it does not exceed 10%. Disneyland in California opens at reduced capacity. California's active cases curve continues sideways with an upward bias which is bad; it needs to drop sharply lower and it is not. California's daily case numbers continue lower but that cannot occur with the behavior of the active cases chart. California is likely underreporting its daily cases for the last couple months perhaps due to the ongoing recall drama with Governor Newsom.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 5/1/21, at 1:00 AM EST: Bomp, bomp, bomp. The techno-beat music pounds the walls of Liverpool's Bramley Moore Dock Warehouse during a huge party. Young folks are bumping and grinding, singing and drinking. There are no masks and social distancing is shunned. It is an experimental rave (a dance party at a specific location, warehouse or in the street). The hundreds of mainly young folks have tested negative for coronavirus 24 hours before the party. The large group will also be tested 5 days after the event. Scientists and doctors will use the information as a basis for reopening the economy and to learn more about the transmission of the virus.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 5/1/21, at 2:00 AM EST: India's misery continues. The epic tragedy is a humanitarian disaster on an untold scale. India reports 402K daily new cases. OVER 400K NEW INFECTIONS IN INDIA IN THE LAST 24 HOURS!! Dear Lord. It leaves you speechless. India deaths are 3.5K souls yesterday marking 4 straight days with deaths over 3.3K per day. They are dropping like flies. India is about to cross the 212K grim death total. India's vaccination program was set to accelerate today but ends in disaster without enough vaccine. India is the largest manufacturer of pharmaceutical drugs and has shipped 98% of the vaccine it has produced over the last year to foreign countries. Indians are outraged that they cannot get the shot when the vaccine is manufactured there. Meanwhile, people keep dying and anyone connected to India from around the world knows of a loved one sick, dying or dead from covid. Japan continues reporting record daily cases numbers for this wave the last 2 days above 3.7K. Japanese deaths spike to 87 souls yesterday a big move higher. Overnight, Japan is hit with a 6.8 earthquake 250 miles (400 km) from Tokyo. When it rains, it pours.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 5/1/21, at 2:30 AM EST: The United States is at 33.1 million total COVID-19 cases and over 590K deaths. OVER 590K AMERICANS HAVE DIED FROM CORONAVIRUS OVER THE LAST 15 MONTHS!! That is a massive death toll rivaling the Spanish Flu a century ago. The US reports 60K daily new cases yesterday an elevated number but that would be expected since the Friday data is typically the most robust. The 7-day MA is at 54K so it is not good that the new infections are above the trend line the last 3 days. Fortunately, the weekend data should be subdued and the daily cases would be expected to drop over the next couple days. Michigan continues to struggle with the current outbreak. Oregon, Washington state, Illinois, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Louisiana and the Carolina's remain an ongoing concern. Indiana reports 1.5K daily new cases yesterday the highest since early February. The Michigan trouble migrates to Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana and Pennsylvania. Overall, the US looks good as long as the states mentioned steady themselves and resume their chart downtrends. If trouble begins in America again, it will likely start with the states mentioned.
Note Added Saturday Afternoon, 5/1/21: Indoor dining restrictions are relaxed in New York City. The Kentucky Derby horse race takes place at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. 50K people attended and many without masks. America is becoming more comfortable each day that the pandemic is behind us but this will only further hamper the vaccination efforts. A CNN poll reports that 44% of republicans will not get the vaccine; nearly one-half! That is millions of people. 28% of independents will not take the shot and only 8% of democrats. The liberal-minded people immediately knelt before authority and could not roll their sleeves up any faster. The independents in the middle are the clearer thinkers in contrast to the two political tribes and they are at about 1 in 4 not willing to be vaccinated. Other polls state about 20% of Americans do not plan to be vaccinated; 1 in 5. Since the poll is from CNN, that provides the media's left perspective, it is likely padded to show the republicans in a worse light. Thus, there is likely 20% to 25% of Americans that do not plan to take the shot and about 40% (2 in 5) of republicans are adverse to being vaccinated but some of them will likely change their minds.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 5/2/21, at 3:00 AM EST: India reports 393K daily new cases the 11th consecutive day over 300K cases. 3,688 Indians die yesterday the deadliest day of the pandemic. 18 die in a fire at the covid unit at Welfare Hospital in Bharuch, Gujarat state. Others are injured. The cause of the tragedy is under investigation. Australia stops travelers from India from entering the nation. Other countries are imposing the same restrictions. 21 countries have detected India's double-mutant B1617. A triple-mutant is identified in one India state dubbed B1618.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 5/2/21, at 3:30 AM EST: The US reports 42K daily new cases a lower number as would be expected on the weekend and it is back below the 7-day MA at 51K. America is looking good and the US active cases curve is curling down again to begin moving lower to form the bell shape. The bell will have a dent in the top of it but that is okay. The US needs that active cases curve to drop. US deaths are 661 souls yesterday back below the 7-day MA at 709 deaths per day. Michigan reports 140 deaths the deadliest day since late January, however, the active cases curve is coming off the top to start to form the bell shape and is the lowest since 4/19/21 almost a couple weeks ago. Michigan is making headway so stay the course and a big improvement will be seen in the coming days. New Mexico reports 286 daily new cases the most since 2/26/21. New Mexico needs to immediately put up its guard in a big way; nip the developing infections problem in the bud. Washington state reports the most deaths since March. Oregon implements new covid restrictions in 15 counties. This is actually good news since it shows that Oregon is on top of the situation and remaining vigilant. The world knows a lot more about treating COVID-19 after 15 long months of misery. Officials are staying up to date with real-time data which should keep America moving in its happy direction. New Mexico needs to redouble its efforts.
Note Added Monday Morning, 5/3/21, at 2:00 AM EST: India reports 371K daily new cases another horrific number, however, cases drop for 2 consecutive days for the first time since the exponential second wave started 5 weeks ago. Take the good news where you can get it. The crest of the infection wave may be at hand. 3,422 Indians die yesterday the sixth consecutive day above 3.3K deaths. The death count is more on the order of 6K to 10K per day since the only deaths included in the official count are hospital deaths not those occurring at home or in the hospital parking lot. The deadliest day for India is Saturday, May Day, 5/1/21, with 3,688 souls riding the vimana to paradise. Hopefully, that number is not exceeded. The highest daily new cases are 402,110 cases on Friday, 4/30/21. Hopefully, that number is not exceeded. Prime Minister Modi loses an election in a key India state as people are unhappy about the incompetent handling of the pandemic. Modi held campaign rallies as the virus started spinning out of control. The situation turns bad in neighboring Nepal with 7.1K daily new cases the highest ever. Nepal bans travel with India. Testing indicates that the B1617 variant is in Mexico. Japan remains a mess with the daily new cases remaining elevated. Columbia deaths remain elevated the deadliest days of the pandemic occur over the last week. Bolivia crosses the 13K deaths grim milestone. Argentina is over 3 million total coronavirus cases the 11th nation in this dubious club. Germany is administering 1 million vaccinations per day and getting a firm handle on the outbreak. Germany's active cases curve is flattening out and should roll over lower in the days ahead to form the bell shape and verify that the Deutschland is on the road to recovery. Russia is in trouble. Daily new cases are increasing in recent days and Russia's active cases curve is beginning to curl higher. You are watching the potential conception of a new infection wave in Russia. Perhaps the infections from the Ukraine and the stan's are migrating northeast. The pandemic rages out of control in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. China should worry considering that all the countries across its southern border are dealing with major outbreaks. Singapore, a shining example on snuffing-out the virus, is now worried about an uptick with infections. Singapore closes off travel with the hot zone countries such as India. Thailand deaths are the highest of the pandemic. Malaysia remains in serious trouble and needs to redouble their efforts. Philippines is extending lockdowns into mid-month due to the overstretched healthcare system.
Note Added Monday Morning, 5/3/21, at 2:30 AM EST: US reports 31K daily new cases that is great news. America is at the low daily case counts from last summer and trending lower. If US daily new cases drop below 26K, which is the low from last summer, you can throw confetti. America would be back to the low case counts after the first wave in May/June 2020. The warmer weather will help the northern hemisphere combat the virus. The US active cases curve has been basing and flatlining for the last 5 weeks of wave four but now resumes the downtrend from 4/25/21 when it was at 6.9 million active cases. The active cases curve is dropping for 1 week and now it needs to fall sharply to form the bell shape, albeit with a dent in the top of the bell due to the wave four surge, to verify the virus is being defeated. At this pace, America should see dramatic improvement over the next couple weeks. It does finally look like real rainbows and blue skies. Michigan is making headway and on the right track although record deaths for wave four are registered on Saturday. Oregon crosses the 2.5K deaths grim milestone. The US has to remain vigilant but is on its way to defeating the pandemic. The attention will have to shift to the world and especially the southern hemisphere that is heading into colder weather and wintertime with folks returning indoors. America will likely continue battling small outbreaks over the coming year but they will be managed on a localized level.
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