NYMO McClellan Oscillator and NYA NYSE Composite Daily Charts Signal Stock Market Bottom At Hand

The NYMO, the McClellan Oscillator, is down in the basement expecting a relief rally to begin for the US stock market. The green circles show recent important bottoms all corresponding to the low NYMO readings especially sub -60. It's a Long Way to the Top if you wanna rock 'n roll. It's a lot harder than it looks. The 1960's and 1970's were a music paradise. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 4/9/25: The SPX starts the day soggy dropping to 4835, then King Donnie balks with his trade and tariff war placing the drama on hold for 90 days, so the S&P 500 catapults higher to 5457. Keystone exited the quickie index long trades and is not holding index plays long or short. You cannot pass up those gains made in a day or two. It is time to let the indexes breathe and the smoke to clear. Today's powerful bull move should continue higher in the daily time frame. Ditto the 2-hour time frame so that tells you there is no top on tap for the stock market until perhaps late tomorrow or on Friday. The charts will tell you. But that pullback will only be a day or so since the daily time frame will still be long and strong. A playable top may be a few days ahead, say, the middle of next week as a guess.

CPC and CPCE Put/Call Ratios and SPX S&P 500 Daily Charts; Rampant Panic and Fear Signals Time to Nibble/Buy On Long Side

The bulls and the bears are the yin and the yang of the stock market and the pendulum swings back and forth. Keystone posted the CPC and CPCE put/call ratio charts leading up into the stock market top in February. One of the key giveaways that the US stock market was at a bubble top was the rampant complacency and fearlessness.

Everyday was a bullish orgy of traders buying anything with a heartbeat without fear that stocks will ever go down again. The euphoric optimism was off the charts (low put/calls) further proven by the parade of bullish calls on television and the internet and any bear, if you could find one, would opine fear, but then would be buying stocks 10 minutes later (obviously, not fearful).

That was then and this is now. What did Keystone tell you? Only a few of you remember. That is not good. The rest of you need to put those bongs down. He told you that you have to wait for panic and fear to arrive before you want to nibble on the long side and start to bring on long positions. Honey, we're home.

The snap-back rally in stocks today petered out once King Donnie, King Crybaby, said the 104% tariffs against communist China would proceed tonight at midnight. Stocks gave up the rally and went negative but closed off the lows. It is crazy price action, like you are living in a Cartoon. Time to plug in. 'Look around you'll see, it's a mountain made of sand under me, you're in the movies and I'm in your cartoon'.

S&P futures are down -80 points as this post is typed so traders are clenching their buttocks waiting to see what happens in the final hours. This is the Donnie Trump reality television show Season 2. This is what everyone wants.

The relief rally would have likely stuck today if the China tariff drama was not in play. If futures are down -80, no, check that, now -88 points, perhaps that is about the extent of it. Maybe not since it dropped 8 points in a heartbeat over the last minute. It does not matter. Panic and fear is rampant so it is best to buy shares off the people running from the exchange with their hair on fire.

The China drama likely depends on when the further escalation is announced by the communists. They likely want to tone down the speed of the drama so China may wait for tomorrow or the following day to announce the retaliation plan. If so, stocks should recover tomorrow since all that information is known/expected. If China announces retaliation tonight, minutes after midnight, futures may tank because Xi and Trump will be fighting a cage match of uncertainty.

Anyhoo, putting the baby politics aside, the high put/calls means it is time to take that list of potential longs on your wish list, that you researched the numbers on and studied the charts, and start nibbling for the relief rally. Stocks have collapsed a long way and simply need to recover to catch their breath. The full moon peaks on Saturday and stocks are typically bullish moving through the full moon.

The green circles show key bottoms in the stock market created due to panic and fear. Fancy that. The peaks in panic and fear correspond to the key bottoms when party-time for the bulls will begin again. Tell David Lee to bring in the California Girls. Keystone exited all index shorts on Friday and is now bringing on index longs. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 8:35 PM EST: S&P futures are down -88 as everyone is gathered in the pumpkin patch next to the Rose Garden, waiting for the orange head to appear and belch words of wisdom about the China tariff fiasco.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 4/9/25, at 3:31 AM EST: The S&P futures tanked down -140 points overnight but over the last couple hours come the whole way back to flat. Donnie Trump's Trade and Tariff War continues with the 104% tariff applied to China. So far, the communists have not responded with their retaliation plan. 

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 4/9/25: The SPX starts the day soggy dropping to 4835, then King Donnie balks with his trade and tariff war placing the drama on hold for 90 days, so the S&P 500 catapults higher to 5457. 

USD US Dollar Index Daily and Weekly Charts; Dollar Smile; Daily Chart Set-Up with Possie D

There is lots of attention on the dollar during the Trump Stock Market Crash induced by the Trump Trade and Tariff War. The big drama currently is the bounce or die decision at the 200-week MA at 102.61. USD price is at 102.48 in real-time. The battle continues. Obviously, dollar bulls want the 200 support to hold while the dollar bears want the 200 to fail opening the door to a far lower dollar.

The weekly and monthly charts for the greenback do not tell a lot. Price is stumbling sideways like a drunk in Times Square on Saturday night. There is no predictive value showing in those time frames.

The daily time frame, however, is set-up with positive divergence (green lines). As the year started, the red lines show the rising red wedge pattern (bearish) and the glaring negative divergence. The dollar top and neggie d spankdown was an easy call.

After three months of dollar weakness, the green lines show possie d setting-up for all the chart indicators so she is on the launchpad and fueling-up for a pop higher. The RSI is coming off oversold levels another positive for price moving forward.

The ADX pink box shows that the strong trend higher in the dollar, during the AI orgy and perceived good times in the market and economy, ended in late January. The dollar is now in a strong down trend since the first week of March as the pink box shows. The ADX shows a higher high but it is a lagging and confirmation indicator; not predictive.

The Aroon is comical. Nearly 100% of the dollar bears (red line) believe that the dollar will continue lower forever. At the same time, the green line shows that 100% of the bulls also believe that the dollar will go down forever. That's funny. The Aroon provides a contrarian signal. The boat is completely loaded with bulls and bears alike all on one side of the dollar boat expecting the buck to continue lower. You know what will happen instead.

Thus, the dollar should rally in the daily time frame going forward receiving the possie d rocket launch. The weekly and monthly time frames remain sideways, however, so after a rally in the dollar on the daily basis, price will likely continue chopping sideways through the year.

Keystone does not have any positions in the dollar long or short currently but obviously, a quickie trade going forward would be long the dollar due to the set-up on the daily chart. Watch that 200-wk MA at 102.61 since it will tell you if the gloom scenario occurs. The dollar climbs to 102.74 as Keystone writes this message. Money by Floyd. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 7:38 AM EST: USD 103.05. 

Note Added 8:00 PM EST: USD 103.52. 

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 4/8/25, at 5:39 AM EST: USD 103.35. 

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 4/9/25, at 3:25 AM EST: USD 102.29. The buck comes back down to test the 200-wk MA at 102.61 again. Bounce or die. Price comes down for a matching low and the indicators remain possie d in the daily time frame. Obviously, the news coming across the wires continuously and Donnie Trump's Trade and Tariff War create daily drama.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 4/9/25: The dollar starts the day soggy dropping to 101.84, then King Donnie balks with his trade and tariff war placing the drama on hold for 90 days, so the greenback catapults higher to 103.31 now at 103-ish. Wild day in the markets.

WTIC West Texas Crude Oil Weekly Chart; Descending Triangle Breakdown at 66.66

We don't need no steenkin' oil. King Donnie promotes the 'drill, baby drill' philosophy, but if the demand for oil is waning, as America and elsewhere slide into recession, even faster due to tariff turmoil, oil companies do not want to drill. If you have a steady order backlog of 100 widgets at your company, you do not ramp production up to 300 widgets because they will sit on the shelf. That be stupid. Not in King Donnie's mind.

The economy is likely slipping into recession. It is about time considering the ongoing labor, housing, and manufacturing recessions that have been ongoing for over a year. In the past, this would be the kiss of death for the economy and a recession guaranteed but nowadays chips rule the roost and the last couple years the AI craze was orgy time. At the same time, the wealthy class and upper middle class sycophants that service the wealthy, accumulated vast wealth from the Fed's money printing and have supported the economy, preventing recession, with their spending. The top 10% of wealthy Americans account for one-half of the spending. It is the New Gilded Age.

The prior oil chart in March explained the descending triangle a bearish chart pattern. If it gives way to the downside, like now, with the ominous 66.66 baseline failing, doom and gloom are ahead. The vertical side of the descending triangle typically dictates how far down price will drop if/when the baseline is busted. Commodities are special since they move wildly and as can be seen from the chart, a drop equal to the vertical side will be a trip to zero which will not happen.

Keystone likes to take the first touch in, or second, when charts forecast a crazy result so that would be the middle vertical lines that are 28-33 points. Thus, taking 28-33 away from 67 is the 34 to 39 landing zone now that oil failed at the 66.66 baseline. That is a recession number. No one needs any steenkin' oil or gasoline since they are sitting at home unemployed and taking the boat out on the lake this weekend is out of the question. In fact Carlos and Latisha put a for sale sign on the boat. Franks and beans are for dinner.

The 66.66 took so long to break, and is so important, that a back kiss is needed for price to prove that it wants to collapse. There will likely be some chop ahead and price may recover for the back test, and at that time the bounce or die decision will occur. A continued downward move in oil means recession. Oil falls below 60 a barrel printing a 59-handle (red dot). This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday Morning, 4/7/25, at 7:41 AM EST: WTIC oil is 60.65 off the 58.95 LOD. 

Note Added Tuesday Evening, 4/8/25, at 7:20 PM EST: WTIC oil drops to 57.60 taking out the low from Monday.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 4/9/25, at 3:35 AM EST: Oil drops to a 4-year low at 56.70 now at 58.23. Time to plan a road trip with cheaper gasoline on the way. Keystone drives gas-guzzling vehicles with V-8 engines, not glorified golf carts (EV's), but instead of worrying about miles per gallon, he is concerned about gallons per mile.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 4/9/25: WTIC oil takes a ride to 55.12, then King Donnie balks with his trade and tariff war placing the drama on hold for 90 days, so oil catapults higher to 62.35. Brent oil loses the 60 level but if you blinked, you missed it; price is now at 65.69.

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart

Copper and utilities took the pipe on Friday that caused the US stock market to drive off the cliff. Utilities play a key role in the week ahead. Remember, the two important metrics for utes are the closing price 15 weeks ago and the 50-week MA now at 994.05.

When both of these give-way to the downside, a trap-door opens and the stock market is flushed down the toilet a la Friday. This is serious business because up until Friday, the utilities had not yet failed. Since the utes did not yet fail, it tells you that the stock market should begin a relief rally any time and it likely has legs higher, but the utes then do fail on Friday. Two kids are playing with sticks and Mom yells that yinz will poke each other's eyes out. Well, Friday, little Sammy Stock Market got his eyeball poked-out.

The blue circle shows the 15-wk MA lookback comparison number for the week ahead; 987.26. For the week of 4/14/25, the 987.26 is meaningless and replaced with 1002.25 the purple circle. For the week of 4/21/25, the 1002.25 is meaningless and replaced with 972.25 the brown circle, and so on.

Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot; that is why we are never invited to the fun parties A Million Miles Away from boring calculations that turn minds to mush. Humorously, once you understand advanced math and physics in detail and depth, your brain is twisted into something that is never the same as it used to be. Thus, the 987.26 number is key for the days ahead. Write it on a sticky note and put it on your forehead. The 50-wk MA is also key at 994+.

Let's put together a scenario. Since utes are the last metric that collapsed into bear price action on Friday, it would likely be the first to reverse. Two numbers provide three spaces so you can see how the day/week will shape-up based on the utilities. If UTIL remains below 987.26, the US stock market is toast and the pain, misery and carnage will continue. Short-sellers will dance over the graves of the greedy bulls in the glistening moonlight. There is no hope for US stocks if UTIL remains below 987.26 in the week ahead.

If UTIL regains 987.26, the stock market will stabilize and at least stop going down. If UTIL moves above 994, the relief rally for the stock market will likely be underway. Snap-back rallies can be super sharp, fast, strong, and rip a short-sellers face right off. As shorts scramble to cover, they add jet fuel to any relief rally that occurs launching it into the stratosphere.

Three choices. Pick your poison. She was Poison in the Well, and I drank it. Watch utilities like a hawk on Monday. They will tell you a lot. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Donnie Trump Stock Market Crash Feb-Mar-Apr 2025; King Donnie Crashes the United States Stock Market with the Trump Trade and Tariff War

The SPX, S&P 500 Index, the United States stock market, topped-out on 2/19/25 at 6147.43 the all-time record high, and highest number ever in history, and 6144.15 the all-time record closing high. That was then, and this is now. On 4/4/25, only 32 trading days later, the SPX crashes to a low at 5069.90 and closing low at 5074.08. The drop from 6144 to 5074 is a drop of 1,070 points, or -17.4%. Tech stocks are in bear markets down more than -20% from the tops.

When Keystone called the top due to the out of control euphoric complacency and fearlessness with neggie d on the SPX weekly chart, he forecasted a 200 to 800-point dump and the SPX is down almost 1100 points. That is the "Trump Stock Market Crash of Feb-Mar-Apr 2025" due to the "Trump Trade and Tariff War." What a mess.

Humorously, people that enthusiastically supported and voted for King Donnie have lost a big chunk of their life savings and some will lose their jobs. Too bad. That's life. You are getting what you voted for so go for it If It Makes You Happy as a painted-up Sheryl sings.

Traders were unhappy with the tariff bait and switch the orange head tried to pull. He is using trade balances to calibrate his actions but using tariffs as the mechanism (Trump lies when he says the new US tariffs equate to the other country's tariffs). The tariffs were more imposing than expected creating more stock market negativity. Yesterday morning after the opening bell, communist China (the 90 million making-up the filthy CCP led by Dictator Xi, not the regular 1.4 billion Chinese folks) retaliates with tariffs and stocks go off a cliff.

With the big drop-off in equities, it is time for everyone to start blaming their favorite scapegoat; "Those damn speculators!" Pause for laughter. Keystone is used to the heat and thanks everyone for the dough. Your money had to go somewhere. Sucka's. Keystone told you what would happen and he still had to take your money. You be dumb.

Trump is now pressuring Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to cut rates which will pump the stock market and economy. Inflation is not under control so cutting rates would send inflation to the moon. The US is likely slipping into stagflation a la the late 1970's Jimmy Carter days, high unemployment (recession) and high inflation. If not, the likely path is recession with inflation slowly retreating as the economy collapses and demand falls off a cliff. Fun times. Powell's Back is Against the Wall as Jay and Son Volt sings. Jay sings for Jay.

Trump and his team of economic idiots continue talking bravado with Donnie himself looking like an orange-headed moron tweeting about how everyone in America will be rich as he strips a massive $6 trillion in wealth from the markets last week. King Donnie, donning his paper Burger King hat he got with a happy meal, has created angst and uncertainty in global markets, the kiss of death, and his actions have wiped off $11 trillion in market value since his inauguration on 1/20/25. And he is going to make this money up quickly? That is a joke. The small-handed orange head is dumb.

If you had $100K in your stock portfolio, you now have $80K. That is what you wanted. If you have a tech-heavy portfolio, you have $70K now. Keystone explained the entire topping process in real-time from the end of last year into the 2/19/25 top. You were given water, my friend, but you did not drink.

Just as Nero fiddled as Rome burned, and Bush W read "My Pet Goat" as the Twin Towers were hit on 911 and burned, and Obama played golf as the US economy and foreign policy collapsed and burned, Trump is yucking it up playing golf as America's stock market crashes and economy burns. Such is America's crony capitalism system in its last throes.

Keystone covered all his short index positions on Friday and brought on a few long index bets only as potential quickie trades anticipating a strong snap-back relief rally. The Keybot the Quant robot remains short. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 11:16 AM EST: Treasury Secretary Bessent was on Twitter as SecBessent but it appears that the communication is now skuttled. Trump and crew likely cannot take the heat and do not want to take the criticism for crashing the stock market by -20% and more.

Note Added Sunday Morning, 4/6/25: As would be expected, the democrat-run media (CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, NBC, PBS, NPR, New York Times, Washington Post, etc...) has non-stop weekend coverage of the Trump Trade and Tariff War and the Trump Stock Market Crash. It is doom and gloom and people will lose jobs and protesters take to the streets against the Trump and Musk tag team of economic collapse. Of course, the republican-run media (Fox News, Newsmax, OAN, Breitbart, AM talk radio, New York Post, etc...) is wall-to-wall rosy talk about the bright future ahead because of the orange head's tariffs. Such is America's crony capitalism system gasping its last breaths, tossing and turning in its last throes.

Note Added Sunday Evening, 4/6/25: S&P futures come on line down 2 hundo points so the bloodbath continues. Humorously, the bulls need to invite Jim Grant for an interview on CNBC. Every time there is a stock market selloff, Jim Grant of Grant's Interest Rate Observer appears on CNBC and opines about troubled times ahead. That is when the bottom is in for stocks. It is no diss on Jim, he is brilliant. Comically, the bulls are on their knees this evening praying for Jim Grant to show up at the stock exchange tomorrow. Trump, Powell at the Fed, and dirtbag Dictator Xi that controls China and the PBOC, can stop the stock market carnage with promises of support and stimulus but all three are as quiet as church mice.

Keybot the Quant Whipsaws Back to the Short Side after King Donnie Starts the Global Trump Trade and Tariff War

The Keystone Speculator's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, whipsaws back to the short side this morning, as expected after the tariff fail, at SPX 5488. A bloody day was on tap and it did not disappoint. King Donnie, donning his Burger King paper hat, kicks-off the Trump Trade and Tariff War liberating Americans from their money. That is why it is called liberation day.

Watch copper and commodities. Bears win with weaker copper that will tank the stock market further. Bulls can stop the stock market selling, and bleeding, with stronger commodities. Bears need CPER below 29.65 and the Wall Street blood will flow like water. Bulls need GTX above 3728 to stabilize the stock market and begin hoping for a relief rally.

Keybot the Quant

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish Today but King Donnie Kicks-Off Global Trade and Tariff War Crashing Markets

Keystone's trading algorithm, Keybot the Quant, flips bullish before lunch time today at SPX 5656 but the timing is bad since King Donnie unleashes his Trade and Tariff War against the world. It is a mess. Protectionism extended the Great Depression in the 1930's. S&P futures are down a couple hundo points about -3.5% so tomorrow will be a bloody Black Thursday if the futures do not improve. Keybot the Quant will likely flip back to the short side tomorrow if the mayhem plays out.

Keybot the Quant