Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keybot the Quant, Keystone's proprietary trading robot, flips to the short side today at SPX 5709 as Fed Chairman Powell speaks. Bears need weaker banks and chips to verify the downside and create stock market carnage.

Keybot the Quant

Gold Weekly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence Developing; Price Extended; Rampant Euphoric Bullish Sentiment for Gold

The gold weekly chart was topped-out with the only caveat the Federal Reserve and what was planned for rate cuts. Chairman Powell fires a money bazooka, because the investment banks will reward him when he leaves office, promising 50-bip cuts for as far as the eye can see. The dollar drops and stocks and gold pop. America's wealthy class celebrate Powell and the era of easy money, the New Gilded Age, that makes the rich super rich and the poor poorer.

The Powell orgy move needed a couple weeks to play out and gold is at 2668 an all-time high and tagged 2709 moving above 2.7K. The folks that bot gold for $250 when the century changed over are happy campers; a quick couple decades go by and gold is a 10-bagger. Gold is topping-out again as the happy Fed news is priced-in. Isn't the crony faux capitalism sickening?

The red rising wedge is bearish. The RSI and stochastics are overbot agreeable to a pullback. The red lines show negative divergence across all indicators except the MACD line. There is always one of them in the crowd. The MACD is only a hair above the prior high but this may be enough to jog price down-up so the MACD has time to go neggie d, so the top for gold, on the weekly basis, is any time between now and 1 to 2 weeks. The chart will tell you when the MACD goes neggie d. The first print for the week tomorrow morning may show the MACD in retreat which would lock the high in right now.

Note how the volume slips away over the last few months. The joyous new lifetime highs in gold come with lackluster volume that generally does not surpass the big volume weeks for this year. The three blue circles show distribution taking place with the smart money handing off gold to the dumb money. Humorously, the traders and investors that held onto gold through the data and Fed speak were rewarded.

The ADX is in the stratosphere continuing to show that the move higher in gold on the weekly basis is a strong trend higher. The ADX is a lagging indicator so it does not provide contrarian information to the bear case above. If the MACD line needs another week or so to line up with neggie d and call the exact top, the ADX will likely be coming off the top as well. Price is extended above the moving averages needing a mean reversion lower.

The Aroon is one for the record books. Every market participant is long gold or 100% bullish gold expecting the yellow metal to continue higher forever. The Aroon green line shows that 100% of the gold bulls expect gold to rally forever. Wheeee. Whoopie! The Aroon red line shows that 100% of the gold bears expect gold to rally forever. Wheeee. What? Say what? Yes, it is off-the-chart euphoric bullishness, complete complacency and fearlessness, and a belief that gold will never drop again. Come on folks, what do you think is going to happen? Keystone is used to sitting alone on one side of the boat but eventually everyone comes over to join him.

Gold is expected to drop now, or bump along sideways-ish for a week or so and then begin dropping, and fall into a multi-week decline. The US dollar daily chart is set to receive a positive divergence rally so that would send gold lower. The upper band is violated so the middle band at 2452, and rising, is on the table, as well as the lower band at 2251.

Keystone is not playing gold derivatives right now, or the miners, either long or short, but obviously the path forward is to short the rallies in gold. Looking at the GLD weekly chart, it is the same as above with the middle band downside target at 225 and rising and the lower band down at 207. Whooaaa, doggie, well, look at that, the MACD is flat, maybe a tiny hair below the prior high on the GLD weekly chart (neggie d) which tells you that the top is in now for GLD on the weekly basis. The GLD daily chart is topped-out and agreeable to a pullback. Ditto the GLD 2-hour chart, it topped-out with neggie d on Friday morning. It looks like it is all systems go for the dollar to pop, gold to drop, and stocks to drop.

The Gold on the Ceiling will soon be on the floor in a multi-week decline. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday Evening, 9/30/24, at 5:56 PM  EST: Gold 2659. GLD 243.06.

Note Added Tuesday Evening, 10/1/24, at 5:41 PM EST: Gold 2690. GLD 245.61. The dock workers at US ports are on strike and Iran is firing missiles at Israel so traders seek safety and flock to gold.

Note Added Saturday, 10/5/24: Gold 2668. Gold staggers flat through the week as the Fed speak and inflation data send the yellow metal to and fro. Gold popped to 2709 on 9/26/24 and is moving through a sideways channel at 2650-2700 for the last 2-1/2 weeks. GLD 245.00. The gold ETF is the same-o story as gold itself flat on the week. GLD popped to 247.37 on 9/26/24 and is moving through a sideways channel at 243-246 for the last 2-1/2 weeks. Gold bulls win big above 2700-2710 and GLD above 246, while gold bears win big below 2650 and GLD below 243. The tension mounts as the Solid Gold Dancers take the stage with the beautiful, classy, intelligent and great performer Irene Cara, singing What a Feeling.

Note Added Wednesday, 10/9/24: Gold 2626. GLD 240.94.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 10/16/24, at 7:15 PM EST: Gold 2691. GLD 247.15. New record high at 248.09. The neggie d remains on the daily and weekly charts sans the MACD on the weekly so just give that a week or two to top out. Ditto gold.

Note Added Sunday, 10/20/24: Gold bulls continue waving the rally banner. Gold prints a euphoric all-time record high at 2730. In a troubled world, gold is in high demand. The central banks are probably buying up the yellow metal as well. Gold bugs deserve their day in the sun. The positive news bites and Fed action send gold to the stratosphere. All the indicators are topped-out with neggie d on the high except the MACD now squeezing out a higher high, thus, the top on the weekly basis needs a jog move down one week then up the next week for the top. GLD jumps to 251.27 with the same scenario. Monthly charts, however, for both point to more higher highs on the monthly basis. Gold will top out in the days ahead and then several weeks of choppiness and a downward bias will follow but into year end and the first of the year gold should be making more new record highs. If gold tags 2800, it opens the door to 3200 as per Keystone's 80/20 Rule, but the path there may be through the 2300-2500 area first.

Note Added Friday Morning, 10/25/24, at 5:35 AM EST: Gold 2749. The sideways dance continues. GLD is at 252.80 with a hanging man candlestick on the daily chart. The RSI and MACD squeeze out a higher high due to the gold hype in recent days so the top may be delayed by a week or so. The daily chart wants a spankdown now so probably short quick pullback for a few days, then another matching or higher high, then roll over and die due to the neggie d that will reform with the RSI and MACD on the weekly. The central bankers have decided to buy gold with both fists over the last month as global turmoil spins out of control and the US presidential election is within sight.

AAPL Apple Weekly Chart; Negative Divergence; Tweezer Top; Price Extended

Apple is cooked. Like the old saying about lemons and making lemonade, at least the rotten apple can be made into a pie. CEO Tim Cook must be cooking the books. AAPL is the darling of the US stock market for the last couple decades. It can do no wrong like the attractive sibling. Well, all good things come to an end, and all pretty faces do not last forever. Apple is about to turn into an ugly hag.

Focusing in on the last couple weeks, price makes a few matching highs so the chart indicators can be assessed for potential neggie d. The blue circle shows a Tweezer Top in play that, as the name implies, signals a top (conversely, a Tweezer Bottom signals a bottom). The chart indicators are clearly in universal negative divergence over the last month as price prints consistent matching or higher numbers. It's a top.

The dark maroon line shows prices at relatively matching highs (the first peak is higher because of only a 2-day orgy spike in price that came right back down) and again, all the indicators are in neggie d over that 3-month time frame. As price prints a higher high compared to a year ago, same-o, same-o, with neggie d. Same-o reminds Keystone of a new tune from J D, no, not Vance the 'Childless Cat Lady', J D McPherson, a far cooler cat. Sunshine Getaway. The band will be at The Bowery in a few days.

Anyhoo, AAPL is cooked. It appears its new iPhone is not receiving the love it expected. The AI hype continues but comically, each interview of an Artificial Intelligence guru results in the tech geek unable to give a down to earth example of a great improvement AI offered. Instead, the AI guru will proclaim that AI is already in use and helping people. AI may be apple pie in the sky. Many of the people cheering AI are not involved in its development.

The pink boxes for the ADX show that a strong trend higher was in place last summer but that petered out in September as AAPL was falling in price. The big rally this year developed into a strong trend higher in July but is on the brink of petering out. When the ADX drops below 26-29, the strong trend higher for Apple on the weekly basis will be over (and the ADX is a lagging indicator).

Price is extended above the moving average ribbon and needs a mean reversion lower. The Aroon is setting up for a potential negative cross. Interestingly, the red negative crosses occur more towards when the down move is done. All the parameters above are negative so the expectation is for a rollover in Apple and for it to begin a multi-week down move.

The three orange dots show the previous triple top that now does not exist. You can scroll back for that chart and discussion. if you take a purple crayon and draw a thick line of support across that prior triple-top that was nullified, Keystone likes purple crayons because they taste like grapes, the 195-ish area is a good downside target.

Keystone is not holding AAPL long or short now but the obvious play going forward is to short the rallies. If you made a lot of money in Apple, take the dough and ride off into the sunset. Warren Buffet continues ditching Bank of America shares; do you think he will be ditching Sapple?

Let's take a look at the shorter-term charts to see if a top can be timed. On the daily chart, there is a triple-top where the indicators are weaker as time goes on. The trend is directionless sideways and the chart does not tell a lot for timing. Ditto the 2-hour chart so the approach of simply shorting the rallies going forward would be the play. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday Evening, 9/30/24, at 5:57 PM  EST: AAPL 233.00.

Note Added Tuesday Evening, 10/1/24, at 5:46 PM EST: Apple takes the pipe collapsing -2.9% to 226.21.

Note Added Saturday, 10/5/24: AAPL 226.80. Sapple stumbles through the sideways channel at 215-233 for the last 3 months. It is time to sh*t or get off the pot. Apple bulls win big above 233 while apple bears win big below 215. I'm a Loser from the Apple Studios.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 10/16/24, at 7:24 PM EST: AAPL 231.78. New record high at 237.49. She is cooked on the daily and weekly charts with neggie d; get out while you can. Apple monthly chart is also neggie d so you are now witnessing the highest prices in AAPL that will remain for perhaps many months, probably a year or two, even more.

Note Added Friday Morning, 10/25/24, at 5:36 AM EST: AAPL is at 230.57 testing the 20-day MA at 230. The 50-day MA support is at 226.666. That is ominous.

UST2Y 2-Year Yield and UST10Y 10-Year Yield Daily Charts; Falling Wedges; Positive Divergence

Here are the 2-year and 10-year yield charts on the daily basis displaying more wild stuff. It's a Wild, Wild Life. Over the last week, starting at 9/16/24 thru 9/18/24, the 2-year yield is moving lower and the 10-year yield is moving higher. The yield curve (2-10 spread) dis-inverts over the last week and normalizes to 23 bips today.

Tonight, in the late afternoon, the 2-year yield is 3.55% (chart is 3.56%) and 10-year yield is 3.78% (chart is 3.79%) for a normalized 2-10 spread (yield curve) of 23 bips.

The 2-day FOMC meeting started on 9/17/24 and the rate decision, where Pope Powell brought the tablets down from On High, and cut by a jumbo 50-bips was 9/18/24. The crowd goes wild. Stocks jump to the moon rewarding America's wealthy class that own the stock market.

The 2-year yield drops as would be expected since the Fed is now on an easing path. The conjecture forward is if each meeting will be a 25-bip or 50-bip cut from here. The Fed meets two days after the November 5th presidential election when the modern-day Herbert Hoover will be selected. The 10-year yield moves higher. Thus, the short end notes are bot sending yield lower and the longer duration notes and bonds are sold sending yields higher. Perhaps traders and investors are concerned about the government debt and deficits after all?

The two charts are interesting because the 2's are about to follow the 10's up in yield. Say what? Sonny, the Fed is on an easing path going forward; the 2-year yield has nowhere to go but down. What are you smoking? The charts do not lie and the 2-year yield is on the launch pad ready to run higher not lower on the daily basis.

On the UST10Y daily chart, the 10's, they drop into the blue falling wedge a bullish pattern (upside expected). It is tricky discussing note and bond charts versus stock charts since price up means yields down and visa versa for Treasuries. Keystone is not using red and green lines instead blue lines are used to not confuse the subject. The charts show yield so as the chart drops lower and lower, like the last few months, that means both the 2's and 10's were being bot by the fistfuls. Again, that makes sense since everyone was expecting the Fed to cut and trying to front run the decision looking for lower yields. So when the yield charts are moving down that is notes and bonds being bot and when the yield charts move higher that is notes and bonds selling off.

There was a tight band squeeze as September starts (purple arrows) which sends yields lower. Tight bands tell you a big move is at hand but do not predict direction; it was obviously down. You can clearly see the positive divergence across all chart indicators (blue lines) so the bottom was in for the 10-year yield and voila, it receives the possie d rocket launch off the bottom. The indicators remain long and strong so higher yields are expected going forward on the daily basis.

The upper band is in play at 3.89%. Staying with the 10-year, the ADX pink boxes show that the long drop in yields was only a strong trend lower for August and a little bit of time this month. The drop in 10-year yield is no longer a strong trend lower.

Note the Aroon on the 10-year yield when it was at the bottom. The red line was at maximum 100% and green line at 0% minimum. This says that 100% of the bond bulls expect yields to drop forever and never go up again. It also says that the bond bears, that would like to see rising yields, are 100% convinced that yields will drop forever and never go up again. That's funny and the sign of a turn which occurs. The Aroon is a contrarian indicator. Obviously, if 100% of traders in Chicago and New York expect yields to go up forever, that ain't gonna happen. This fractal should play out the same for the 2-year yield and you know what will happen ahead of time.

On the 2-year yield chart, UST2Y, it is the same-o story only it will lag the 10-year yield move higher. Yield continues lower but all the chart indicators are sloping higher, positive divergence. The downside in yield is done in the daily time frame and the 2-year yield is loaded-up with rocket fuel and on the launch pad. Someone needs to light the fuse and the 2-year yield will begin running higher like the 10's.

It sounds odd since the Fed is now in a cutting cycle but it is what it is. The charts price-in everything known up to the minute so whatever is going on says the 2-year yield will move higher in the days ahead not lower. The Aroon for the 2-year is set up as described for the 10-year yield so that fractal should repeat for the 2's.

The ADX for the 2-year yield chart says the down move in yield is a strong trend since July and continues. Note, however, that as yield slipped lower over the last couple weeks, the ADX has come off the top, so the strong trend lower in yield may have peaked two weeks ago. The ADX is a lagging indicator so as the yield pops due to the possie d, and runs higher, the ADX line will drop out of the pink box at that 26 to 30 level verifying that the strong trend lower in 2-year yields is officially toast probably in October.

Chairman Powell said inflation continues lower which are haunting words that echo in Keystone's mind; mainly because it is hollow in there. Although Powell's fancy data and metrics may verify his opinion and direction, inflation is actually moving sideways. It is in a neutral area between inflation and disinflation bumping along sideways. What does it mean if Powell did the 50-bip cut, basing it partially on the idea that inflation was continuing lower, when in actuality, inflation may be flatlining? Keystone does not know, what are you asking him for? He's just a down and dirty stock trader. Ask a bond guru.

Thus, going forward, the 2-year yield will begin popping anytime forward and move higher (notes sold off sending yields higher) and the 10-year yield will continue higher both on the daily basis. Are you ready for this to happen when the universal consensus has to be for the 2-year yield to drop going forward, not pop?

Everybody and his brother, and the Uber driver, shoeshine boy and doorman, say the 2-year yield is going to drop now that we are in an easing cycle. They asked Keystone why he has the nerve to make the call that the 2-year yield will move higher? He replies, "Possie d, possie d." Keystone is used to sitting by himself on the one side of the boat while the party is on the other side a Million Miles Away. Eventually they come over to Keystone's side.

Watch for the move higher in 2-year yields on the daily basis which will surprise everyone. Keystone is not playing any Treasury tickers or derivatives currently long or short. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 9/26/24, at 4:56 AM EST: The US yields are; 2-year 3.56%, 5-year 3.53%, 10-year 3.78% and 30-year 4.13%. The yield curve (2-10 spread) is 22 bips.

Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 9/26/24, at 5:00 PM EST: The 2-year yield is 3.63% and 10-year yield is 3.80% for a 2-10 spread at 17 bips. The 2-year is receiving the possie d rocket launch thrusting higher from 3.54% to 3.64% The 20-day MA is 3.67% very close so yield will want to kiss and test this resistance.

Note Added Saturday, 9/28/24: The 2-year yield finishes the week dropping to 3.57% and 10-year yield is 3.75% for a 2-10 spread at 18 bips. The Inflation and sentiment data and more Fed speak sends the rates to and fro. The 10-year likely wants to back kiss the 20-day MA at 3.73% to make sure its upward path is verified. The 2-year pops during the week exactly testing the 20-day MA resistance at 3.65% and is promptly spanked down on its first try. The 2-hour yield chart remains in possie d and the yield is on the launch pad ready to jump higher. Going up through the 20 at 3.63%-3.65% will be a big deal and signal more upside ahead for the 2-year yield. Everybody and his brother expects the 2-year yield to drop since the Fed's easing path is ongoing and there was a move to another 50-bip cut late last week for the FOMC meeting two days after the 11/5/24 election, so bloop, the 2-year yield retreats again. The US dollar is ready to launch higher in the daily time frame along with the 2-year yield. Traders are asking what is Keystone smoking? 

Note Added Monday Evening, 9/30/24, at 5:58 PM EST: 2-year yield 3.65%. 10-year yield 3.79%. 2-10 spread 14 bips.

Note Added Tuesday Evening, 10/1/24, at 5:43 PM EST: 2-year yield 3.62%. 10-year yield 3.74%. 2-10 spread 12 bips. The US dock workers go on strike and Iran is firing missiles at Israel.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 10/2/24, at 3:43 PM EST: 2-year yield 3.64%. 10-year yield 3.79%. 2-10 spread 15 bips. 

Note Added Thursday Morning, 10/3/24, at 4:30 AM EST: 2-year yield 3.65%. 10-year yield 3.80%. 2-10 spread 15 bips. The 2-year yield continues nibbling at the 20-day MA overhead resistance at 3.66%. The high yesterday was 3.666%. The possie d strength should push her up through.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 10/3/24, at 5:48 AM EST: 2-year yield 3.66%. 10-year yield 3.81%. 2-10 spread 15 bips. The 2-year yield tests the 20-day MA overhead resistance at 3.66% so it is time to bounce or die.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 10/3/24, at 9:25 AM EST: Bounce. 2-year yield 3.67%. 10-year yield 3.82%. 2-10 spread 15 bips. The 2-year yield pokes above the 20-day MA at 3.66%.

Note Added Friday Morning, 10/4/24, at 3:20 AM EST: Bounce. 2-year yield 3.70%. 10-year yield 3.84%. 2-10 spread 14 bips. The 20-day MA at 3.66% becomes support.

Note Added Friday Morning, 10/4/24, at 6:07 AM EST: 2-year yield 3.71%. 10-year yield 3.85%. 2-10 spread 14 bips. Let's take a look at how the possie d rocket launch is going. On the $UST2Y daily chart, the chart indicators are long and strong (sloping upwards) forecasting more new highs in the 2-year yield going forward in the daily time frame. The RSI and stochastics cross above 50% into bull territory for the yield (do not get confused; the chart is yield so when yield moves up notes and bonds are getting sold off with prices dropping). The 50-day MA resistance is at 3.87% and dropping. There is solid yield resistance at 3.88% from the action in August. The expectation is for the 2-year yield to move up into the 3.85%-3.90% area over the coming days or couple weeks. Of course, the pending Jobs Report, that drops in a couple hours, inflation data and Fed speak will move rates to and fro. Analysts are caught flat-footed since everybody and his bro, and the chef and nanny, were 100% convinced that the yield would drop. All they had to do was look at the charts.

Note Added Friday Morning, 10/4/24, at 7:11 AM EST: 2-year yield 3.72%. 10-year yield 3.86%. 2-10 spread 14 bips. 

Note Added Friday Morning, 10/4/24, at 8:13 AM EST: 2-year yield 3.73%. 10-year yield 3.87%. 2-10 spread 14 bips. The US Monthly Jobs Report is imminent.

Note Added Friday Morning, 10/4/24, at 8:31 AM EST: 2-year yield 3.88%. 10-year yield 3.97%. 2-10 spread 9 bips. Holy smokes. Jobs are a 254K blowout to the upside with the unemployment rate at 4.1%. The 2-year tags the 50-day MA resistance at 3.87% in a heartbeat; no need to wait a couple days or couple weeks, it occurs in a couple hours.

Note Added Friday Morning, 10/4/24, at 8:36 AM EST: 2-year yield 3.87%. 10-year yield 3.95%. 2-10 spread 8 bips. Traders think the 50-bip cut in November is off the table. Stocks rally despite the lower chance of a November jumbo 50-bip cut. Wall Street is drinking the 'soft landing' tea kicking off a Friday stock market orgy. The 2-year yield has ran about 30-bips higher this week with the 10-year up about 20-bips. Inflation was kicked out the back door but it never left. Now inflation is in the bushes next to the house peeking through the window trying to climb back in.

Note Added Friday, 10/4/24, at 12:55 PM EST: 2-year yield 3.91%. 10-year yield 3.97%. 2-10 spread 6 bips. The 10's are bumping up against 4%. The pop in the 2-year yield is massive; now you know why Keystone calls the positive divergence set-up the 'possie d rocket launch'. Calling tops and bottoms is standard fare for a speculator.

Note Added Monday, 10/7/24, at 4:40 AM EST: 2-year yield 3.98%. 10-year yield 4.00%. 2-10 spread 2 bips. The 10-year is above 4% for first time in a couple months.

Note Added Monday, 10/7/24, at 5:08 AM EST: 2-year yield 3.99%. 10-year yield 4.01%. 2-10 spread 2 bips. Now you know how to call tops and bottoms in the markets using divergences. The bottom, or top, is not in until ALL the chart indicators (RSI, MACD, histogram, stochastics and money flow) diverge away from price, or in the case above, yield, in that time frame you are trading.

Note Added Monday, 10/7/24, at 6:50 AM EST: 2-year yield 4.01%. 10-year yield 4.01%. The 2-10 spread, the yield curve, is zero, ready to invert again. Oy vey. The circus continues. The bond market is slapped silly with Orion's Belt.

Note Added Monday, 10/7/24, at 7:06 AM EST: There it is. 2-year yield 4.02%. 10-year yield 4.01%. The 2-10 spread, the yield curve, is -1 bip, and inverted again.  What, Me Worry?

Note Added Monday, 10/7/24, at 6:53 PM EST: If you blinked when the yield curve inverted this morning, you missed it. The 2-10 spread quickly normalized again and spends the day 2 or 3 bips above inversion. 2-year yield 4.00%. 10-year yield 4.03%. The 2-10 spread, the yield curve, is 3 bips. 

Note Added Thursday Morning, 10/10/24, at 7:00 AM EST: 2-year yield 4.03%. 10-year yield 4.08%. The 2-10 spread, the yield curve, is at 5 bips and no longer inverted. Now you see, the power of possie d.

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Hanging Man; SPX Prints All-Time High at 5741 on 9/25/24

There you go. The charts have priced-in the Federal Reserve jumbo rate cut of 50 bips. The SPX is topped-out on the 2-hour chart so the remainder of the week should be interesting.

The SPX, the S&P 500 index, the United States stock market, prints a new all-time closing high today at 5732.93 and new all-time intraday high, the highest number ever in history, at 5735.32. The bulls are running.

The SPX daily and weekly charts remain negatively diverged (see previous charts) so the idea was to wait until the 2-hour chart sets up so the top can be called. Honey, I'm home. In late August, you can see the prior top in the 2-hour time frame receiving the neggie d spankdown. Price drops as September begins but the intraday point low, making a matching low, came with the chart indicators positively diverged (green lines). Voila, up she goes with a possie d rocket launch.

So lots of drama occurs this month with inflation data and Fed speak floating the stock market ever higher. The red lines display the neggie d in play again as price makes the new all-time record highs. All the indicators are neggie d so the top is in and the 2-hour should kick-in the downside now which will likely kick-in the downside on the daily and weekly charts.

The blue rising wedge is bearish. The stochatics are overbot, and the RSI, almost, agreeable to a pullback. Take a look at the SPX daily chart and you see a hanging man candlestick print today so a trend change may occur right now. Hang Man! Hang Man! Gallows Pole.

The Keybot the Quant robot remains long with VIX one of the only negative metrics remaining which makes no sense as the SPX prints new all-time highs. It is unbelievable and bazaar. How can the stock market print new all-time highs and the VIX not dropping like a rock?

The VIX bull/bear line in the sand, as per the Keybot the Quant algorithm, is 15.24 and price is at 15.39, in the bear camp, only 15 pennies away from the bull camp. If VIX drops below 15.24, it verifies that the stock market rally is real and has legs higher. The analysts that have EOY target numbers up at 6.0K and even 6.1K will be throwing confetti. If, however, the VIX remains above 15.24, and then begins moving higher again, the stock market is toast, and the neggie d spankdown should begin the pain and misery ahead.

The chart above is teetering on the edge. One Last Breath. Blow on it, like a feather, and it should begin falling. The only thing that can stop it is more happy talk from the Fed. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Hump Day, 9/25/24, at 9:54 AM EST: The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 5740.13, lucky 13, and now sits at 5735. The bulls throw confetti as they drink Fed wine and buy stocks with both fists. The 2-hour says she's topped-out. The neggie d slapdown should begin any time today.

Note Added Hump Day, 9/25/24, at 10:12 AM EST: The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 5741.03 five minutes ago and now sits at 5739. The bulls throw a big party. Wheee! Whoopie! Bulls are drunk as skunks throwing darts at the stock pages to pick tickers to play long. Irving Fisher's ghost appears and announces that the stock market is now at a permanently high plateau and will never drop from here.

Note Added Hump Day, 9/25/24, at 10:26 AM EST: Whoopsies daisies. Who put that banana peel there? SPX 5732.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 9/26/24, at 4:34 AM EST: The battle yesterday was obviously at the VIX 15.24 line in the sand as outlined above. The bulls jammed it lower into munch time testing VIX 15.24 that is called out by the Keybot the Quant robot, but the VIX bounces maintaining stock market sogginess. The SPX ends the session at 5722. This morning, out of the gate, the VIX drops to 15.00 in early trading, so the bulls are throwing confetti and S&P futures are up nearly 50 points. Micron reports happy earnings so everyone and his bro are buying chip stocks with both fists sending global stock indexes higher. China also announces fiscal stimulus realizing it will have to bail-out the troubled real estate sector just like the Western nations must do when their corrupt financial systems become overextended. Human greed knows no bounds and is comfortable in any system be it communism, crony capitalism, socialism, Marxism, Naziism, dictatorships, etc...; it's all the same. The expectation of central banker easy money (PBOC) sends global stocks higher. Simply watch VIX 15.24 today, tomorrow and early next week and you will likely know how the last three months of the year will play out. The SPX 6K end-of-year targets need the VIX to continue lower to 14, 13 and 12, maybe 11, and the stock market party will be in full swing. If VIX moves back above 15.24, there will be nothing but a sick and soggy path forward for stocks to end the year. The S&P futures, if they hold, should bring the SPX cash price up to test the all-time high yesterday at 5741.03. As the SPX prints this matching price high or moves above, if it does, simply check the charts to see if the neggie d remains in play. It should, if not, it will reset again after this latest stick-save hype dissipates.

Note Added Thursday, 9/26/24, at 8:10 PM EST: The SPX prints a new all-time high at 5767.37 and new all-time closing high at 5745.37. The 2-hour chart above has not changed and remains in neggie d so the top is in and stocks are expected to fall. The fight around VIX 15.25 continues and is the rudder steering the stock market ship. Inflation and sentiment data, and comments from Fed Governor Bowman, who was the lone dissenter of the rate cut (she wanted 25 bips instead of 50 bips), are on tap tomorrow.

Note Added Saturday, 9/28/24: The all-time highs from Thursday hold. It is comical to be at the all-time highs in the stock market after 15 years of obscene Federal Reserve money-printing starting with Helicopter Ben Bernanke. What a pile of sh*t it all is. Can't Believe We're Here. Crony capitalism is reaching its tragic denouement like every other corrupt government and country has over the last 5,000 years. Anyhoo, let's see how the charts are progressing. If you bring up the 2-hour, you can see the top, and neggie d for the indicators, so she was starting to roll over when the week ended. Hey, maybe a Black Monday will occur? That would be fun. So the 2-hour is cooked; how about the SPX daily chart? Negative divergence remains there as well as the new highs printed. The MACD line tries to create a couple more days of strength but is neggie d over the last couple months so do not put much credence in it. The daily chart wants to retreat so the near term does not look good. The new moon peaks on Wednesday at 2:49 PM EST and stocks are typically bearish moving through the new moon each month. On the weekly chart, neggie d remains as well. Who knows what is holding up the stock market? Blow on it and it will collapse. Happy data indicates that the 50-bip cut is more likely two days after the November election so stocks rally higher on the promises of more Fed easy money for as far as the eye can see. More crony capitalism puke. Maybe we do get a Black Monday. Put/call ratios are low verifying the off-the-charts bullish euphoria, fearlessness and rampant complacency with traders and investors buying any stock with a heartbeat with no fear that prices will ever go down again. The ghost of Irving Fisher rises above the stock exchange whispering in a spooky Halloween voice that stocks are at a permanently high plateau. The charts want the stock market to drop but the chips hype and falling inflation euphoria is maintaining stock price buoyancy. The Keybot the Quant robot remains long but is champing at the bit to go short and likely needs the SPX to drop below 5727 to flip short. The dollar daily chart wants to rally so it would make sense that stocks will drop as the dollar regains its footing and rallies higher. Keep watching the VIX 15.26 bull/bear line in the sand as identified by the Keybot the Quant algorithm. Bulls win big below VIX 15.26 while bears will create market carnage the longer the VIX stays above 15.26 especially if it moves sharply higher and over 20.

Note Added Monday Evening, 9/30/24, at 5:59 PM  EST: SPX prints a new all-time closing high at 5762.48 but the all-time intraday high from last Thursday holds at 5767.37. SPX drops to 5703 today and then rebounds strong after the Powell speech to the new high. Comically, Powell walks back a 50-bip cut for November saying everything is on the table but it does not matter; stocks rally any way. The upside party is in full swing. Traders are drunk as skunks buying any stock with a heartbeat. Keybot the Quant flipped short today at SPX 5709. Volatility and commodities are creating negativity and banks and chips are creating positivity. One of these four will flinch.

Note Added Tuesday Evening, 10/1/24, at 5:39 PM EST: Instead of a Black Monday, it is a mini-Black Tuesday. The SPX falls to 5681 closing at 5709. The dock workers at US ports are on strike and Iran is firing missiles at Israel.

Note Added Saturday, 10/5/24: SPX 5751.07. The SPX prints another hangman candlestick. Hangman! Hangman!

Note Added Monday Evening, 10/7/24, at 7:01 PM EST: A mini-Black Monday was on tap today. The SPX collapses 55 points to 5696. The 20-day MA support is 5677.

DJT Trump Media & Technology Group Daily and Weekly Charts; Historic -85% Crash in 5 Months

King Donnie Trump, the orange-headed bloviating carnival clown, thought it would be a great idea to go public with a stock offering using his initials for the ticker symbol; DJT. Narcissistic Trump is a business idiot and grifter taking advantage of inexperienced people that bot that piece of crap DJT and have now lost their shirt, and their pants.

The lock-up period is expiring for the stock so Donnie can sell DJT shares without restrictions. When the stock was at 80, he was Mister Happy figuring he could cash-out and stash a bunch of dough, but alas, by the time the lock-up period expired, price is now down to 12. Of course, now the bloviating circus clown says he plans on holding the turd.

DJT crashes from 80 to 12 in only 5 months a historic -85% collapse. Trump's legal problems had traders and investors selling the stock starting in April 2024. There was talk about Donnie cashing-out which helped create the nosedive. If the top honcho that should be gun-ho for the stock wants to cut and run, confidence is lost in the ticker as the chart clearly shows. Also, there were additional shares offered, dilution, which will drive price lower even though they try to not say they are issuing new shares with fancy legal and financial jargon no one understands.

Trump the grifter, that sells bibles, hats, NFT's, pictures of himself, cheap Christmas ornaments for $90 bucks, crypto promotions, etc..., thought he could make a bunch of quick easy money in the stock market. Wrong. There is a rumor that Donnie may sell a new round of bibles with a picture of Stormy Daniels in a bikini on the cover. That will be a big seller.

It is comical how millions of Americans think Donnie is a business genius, mostly because he keeps saying that he is; it is laughable and misguided. Remember when he said he was worth over $10 billion a few years back; he wanted to be in double-digits. Keystone told you it was a lie and it was. Donnie's daddy gave him a half a billion dollars ($460 million to be exact) and 40 years later he has $1 to $3 billion. That, my friends, is a business idiot.

People assume that the Trump name on buildings means he owns the place; far from it. He only takes naming rights. Donnie's game is cash flow. He generates enough cash each month to fund his jet, the fuel and maintenance, and whatever else he needs in his personal life, and brags that he is the richest man in the land, but it is mostly smoke and mirrors. This was evidenced by his difficulty in finding funds to pay court costs, fines and judgements. Also, his presidential election bid needs money so why isn't the braggard telling America that he is putting in millions of his own vast wealth? Because he is not as rich as he proclaims. He is an orange-headed bloviating carnival clown.

It will be fascinating if Trump wins reelection. That will likely result in massive riots the following day, not because Donnie won but for the looting; he will serve as the catalyst. Trump will be used as an excuse, like George Floyd, for tens of thousands of people to take to the streets in medium and large-sized cities and loot every store front. Some folks will plan on making $10 grand the day after the election if Trump is elected. Lots of young men will be walking around in brand new red Nike tennis shoes that they did not buy. Welcome to the new America.

People say they want to know more about policies. Policies, schmolicies. Sure, people will answer polls and questionnaires checking boxes saying they care about inflation or abortion or immigration, but when it comes down to the vote for POTUS, you know what the basis is for their decision. Yes, if you like Trump, you will vote for him, if you can't stand the dufus, you will vote for Harris, or not vote for the presidential ticket. It is that simple. Policies, schmolicies. The election is a referendum on the orange head.

It does not matter who wins the presidency since America's crony capitalism system is in its last throes and the winner will be labeled as the modern-day Herbert Hoover as the next couple years play out. All the politicians are criminals; don't you idiots understand this yet? The system is corrupt to the core. You are spending time out of your day to vote for demopublican and republocrat criminals. Go for it if it makes you feel good.

The November match-up, only 6 weeks away, 42 days, is King Donnie Trump, the orange-headed grifter, with sidekick Childless Cat Lady Vance, versus Cackling Kamala Harris, the wannabe commie, with her right-hand man Tampon Timmy AWOLz. That is hilarious. Good luck with that crew.

For the DJT daily chart, the green falling wedge is bullish. Price fell through the lower standard deviation line so a move back to the middle band, that is also the 20-day MA, at 17.43, and falling, is on the table. The stochastics and RSI are oversold agreeable to a bounce. The green lines for the chart indicators show positive divergence as price collapses so DJT is ready to bounce in the daily time frame. The RSI is sketchy since it may be printing a hair lower value which may delay the bottom for 2 days until a jog move in price can make the RSI firmly possie d. So the bottom is likely in for DJT, on the daily basis, this week.

The weekly chart is not so rosy. The chart clearly displays what a piece of sh*t this stock is crashing -85% from the high at 80 to 12 in only about 20 weeks. The rats are leaving the sinking Ship Donnie. The green lines show that the histogram, MACD over the last year, stochastics and money flow are positively diverged agreeable to the happy set-up on the daily chart wanting to see price rally from here. The RSI, however, and MACD over the last month, are weak and bleak wanting to see further lows in price on the weekly basis.

Thus, DJT should bottom this week and begin rallying on the daily basis back towards 17. The recovery in the days ahead will likely be modest since the weekly chart wants to extract more pain. DJT may bounce this week into next, then roll over again for a week coming back down to 12-ish maybe a touch lower, and then when the RSI and MACD turn possie d on the weekly chart (in a couple weeks), that will be a firm bottom and beginning of a multi-week recovery that should rally back to 17 or so. This positive move should send the stock higher into election day.

Anyone playing DJT on the long side now is gambling at the casino. These traders are hoping for a Donnie win on November 5th, and a huge bump higher in the stock price, which will likely occur. But hope is not a trading strategy. Only an idiot becomes involved with King Donnie whose legacy from his four years in office is a whining, cry-baby, sore-loser. King Cry Baby.

If you got caught up in the King Donnie hype, and got fleeced by DJT stock, you may as well ride it out to the election now. Is there much difference in your projected loss if DJT goes bankrupt? You are already hosed with price down to 12. As explained, in a couple weeks, DJT will be set-up for a sustainable multi-week move higher into the election. If 12 is lost, however, the door is open to 10 and even an 8 handle, but again, the stock would simply begin its multi-week up move from these low levels. DJT will likely hold on until the election that will decide the fate of the POS.

Keystone has never played DJT long or short and does not plan to going forward; people seem to regret getting involved with Trump. The sucka's that bot at 80 do. If you want to play it, wait and watch that weekly chart to make sure the RSI and MACD set up with possie d which should be in a week or two. You can then time your long entry using the daily and 2-hour charts. DJT will likely rally early October into the November 5th election with the biggest gains probably the second week of October and price may flatten out at Halloween into the election when the fate of DJT will be decided. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday, 9/26/24, at 8:19 PM EST: A huge Trump Media investor, United Atlantic Ventures (UAV), ditches over 7.5 million shares of DJT stock. They are gittin' while the gittin' is good. More rats jumping off Ship Trump that is hung-up and taking on water on the jagged reef. It is getting to the place where the only people that own the DJT turd stock are King Donnie and his duped sucka sycophants. That'll teach them. DJT ends the week at 14.75 receiving the possie d pop the last 4 days as Keystone forecasted above. This stock totally depends on Trump winning the election, even so, maybe it struggles back to 30-32 if sucker investors are lucky. If Trump loses to the potentially first woman president Harris, DJT will likely go bankrupt.

Note Added Saturday, 10/5/24: DJT 16.50. As discussed above, DJT receives some lift off the bottom. The turd will float in the toilet bowl until the election on November 5th. DJT is in a world of Hurt, as Johnny sings the 9 Inch Nails tune.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 10/16/24, at 7:14 PM EST: DJT 31.26. The possie d rocket launch rally occurs. Trump boot-lickers are getting bulled-up believing King Donnie will win the election. Yesterday's high is 33.85 back-kissing the 200-day MA at 34.14. Price will probably stagger sideways through 27-34 until the verdict is known on 11/5/24.

XLV Healthcare ETF Weekly Chart; Rising Wedge; Overbot; Double-Top (M-Top); Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended

Medic! Medic! Is there a doctor in the house? 'Doctor, Doctor, gimme the news', can you save Mister Healthcare lying on the gurney choking for breath? No, my son, there is nothing you can do, he will receive the neggie d spankdown for many weeks to come. Nooooo! Anything but the neggie d smackdown!

The XLV healthcare ETF is sick, the puns come effortlessly. It is a double-top, or M-top, like the XLF financials ETF is displaying on its daily and weekly charts. Little Tiny Bubbles appearing like when Don sings.

As price prints a matching high, all the chart indicators are obviously negatively diverged across the board (sloping down while price is moving up), so a spankdown is needed in the weekly time frame. You can see that even if price popped higher, it would be extremely difficult for the indicators to come up to new highs, so the neggie d will remain in play forecasting the top and pending, or now, ongoing, smackdown.

The RSI and stochastics were overbot agreeable to a pullback which occurred last week. Price is extended above the moving average ribbon so a mean reversion lower is needed. The red rising wedge pattern is bearish and things will get ugly fast as price drops below the bottom rail.

Price ran up the upper standard deviation band for the last couple months so a move to the middle band, that is also the 20-wk MA, at 149.06, and rising, would be in order, and the door to the lower band at 140 and rising is also open. Do not rule out another touch of the top band at 158 if there is happy talk as the new week of trading begins.

The Aroon green line says the healthcare bulls are all convinced that the XLV will go up forever on the weekly basis. The Aroon red line says the healthcare bears are also convinced that XLV will go up forever. It is rampant complacency and fearlessness as the party rages on with euphoric joy (top behavior).

The dark blue circles show distribution taking place. The smart money is sloughing off healthcare shares to Joe Sixpack, Carmelita Winedrinker, and Carlos Bagholder, known as the dumb money. The investment houses are clearly dumping XLV since late June gittin' outta Dodge while the gittin' is good. Do you see and hear all the analysts and talking heads parading across television and computer screens espousing the virtues of healthcare stocks? One after another are telling you to buy, buy, buy! Pump and dump, baby. If you buy, you be the sucka.

The light blue lines show a two-leg bull flag pattern starting at the bottom in October 2023. The first leg is 122 to 147 a difference of 25 points. The sideways to sideways lower consolidation occurs, although it is not the prettiest consolidation pattern, and then the second leg starts at 138. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, thus, 138+25 is 163. Price popped to 160 which may be close enough for government work to satisfy the pattern. If price moves above the 158 top band, it may try to make it to 160-162, but by the looks of the neggie d, this is highly unlikely. The corrupt casino may offer happy talk about some healthcare names to try and give XLV a boost.

148 may offer a downside target since price congestion begins there and may offer support. Also, the lower band and 50-wk MA are rising sharply, and as price drops for a few weeks, they may also converge around 147-148. You can simply watch the charts develop and they will tell you.

Keystone is not playing any healthcare names long or short currently, or derivatives, but will keep an eye on XLV, and/or individual names, to short them. Let's take a look at the daily chart; price is getting smacked downward by the neggie d and double-top. That weakness should continue. 5 days ago it would have been easy to call the top on the daily chart and play it short. The 2-hour chart is stumbling sideways. The approach going forward would be to short all rallies in XLV. If you have profits in healthcare, take them, move on and have fun, before you become sick lying on the gurney. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday Evening, 9/24/24, at 8:04 PM EST: XLV is at 154.09 printing a low at 153.36 today.

Note Added Hump Day, 9/25/24, at 10:30 AM EST: XLV drops to 153.01. The 50-day MA is 152.18.

Note Added Saturday, 9/28/24: XLV finishes the week at 153.02. The 50-day MA is 152.36.

Note Added Saturday, 10/5/24: XLV finishes the week at 151.64. Nurse Ratchett! We may have a Basket Case here. Humana soils the sheets this week. HUM crashes -25%. That's inhumane.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 10/16/24, at 7:26 PM EST: XLV 153.28. The 20 is at 153.21. The 50 is at 153.43. It is a bigtime confluence at 153. It is time to bounce or die.

Note Added Friday Morning, 10/25/24, at 5:40 AM EST: XLV 149.41. A downward channel forms of lower lows and lower highs after the 9/4/24 top. The 100-day MA is 150.23.

XLF Financials ETF Daily and Weekly Charts; Double-Top (M-Top); Rising Wedge; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended

Stick a fork in the financials; they're cooked. The banks are topping-out in both the daily and weekly time frames. What a huge run higher since October 2023; from 31 to 46, a big +50% gain. America's wealthy class dances with glee, made filthy rich courtesy of the Federal Reserve's money-printing for the last 15 years. They spit on the huddled masses below.

The XLF ETF contains banks but also insurance companies and other financial-related companies. As the yield curve dis-inverts and begins a steepening cycle, getting back to normalcy, traders and investors figure the banks will benefit but that trade is played out; done and dusted. If you have a lot of profits in the banks, it is time to git outta Dodge, while the gittin' is good.

The daily chart comes up for the matching price high with all chart indicators sloping downward, negative divergence, so price is out of gas. There is no more fuel in the tank (indicators) to take price higher. The stochastics are overbot agreeable to a pullback. The double-top, or M-top, pattern is in play so a move downward would complete the pattern. Price is extended above the moving average ribbon so a mean reversion lower is needed. Price may want to tag the upper band at 45.92, maybe even sneak to 46.20-ish, but you would be wise to start scaling-out as it tops-out.

The blue circles show 5 days of distribution taking place this month during 14 trading days thus far so for one-third of the trading days in September, the smart money is sloughing off shares to the dumb-*ss money, the sucka's. Every top needs the bag-holdin' sucka's. That is why the television talking heads keep telling you to buy the banks. Buy, buy, buy! Sucka. The investment banks are sloughing off their shares to you, sucka. Pump and dump.

The weekly chart shows the rising red wedge pattern that is bearish. As price prints the matching high from August, the chart indicators are all neggie d. The one sliver of hope for XLF bulls is the short green line for the MACD trying to eek out a higher high but even so, it would only delay the top by a few days or week or so, and do not expect it.

Price tags the upper standard deviation band so the middle band, that is also the 20-wk MA, at 42.70, and rising, is on the table, and also the lower band at 39.66 rising sharply. Price is extended above the moving average ribbon so a mean reversion is needed. The ADX pink box shows that XLF is trying to hold on to a strong trend higher by its fingernails. If the ADX loses the 26-28 area, it verifies that the strong trend higher in banks is over (this indicator always lags).

The Aroon green line indicates that nearly all the bank bulls expect the bank stocks to go up forever going forward. The Aroon red line indicates that nearly all the bank bears expect the bank stocks to go up forever. That is funny. Rampant fearlessness and complacency. Excessive euphoria.

The XLF 2-hour chart is also in neggie d so the top is in now. Maybe some happy talk will maintain buoyancy in price to try and tag 45.92-46.20 but do not count on it. A multi-week move lower for XLF is expected to begin now. There is a lot of congestion down at the 40-42 area so that would be a logical place for price to drop to over the coming weeks and a lot lower if 40 fails. If you are long the banks, it is time to Surrender your shares and go short.

Keystone is not playing any banks or financials long or short these days but will look to bring on short (inverse) bank ETF's going forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday Evening, 9/24/24, at 8:00 PM EST: Visa stock took the pipe today after the DOJ sues the credit card king. Former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's husband sold over $500K worth of V stock before the announcement of the lawsuit. Human greed (in the form of crony capitalism) destroyed America just as it has done to every other government or country for 5,000 years. XLF is at 45.06 now down from the 45.66 above. The neggie d is doing some slapping. The low today is 44.90 and the second it tapped its toe on the 20-day MA support at 44.90 it bounced. CNBC commentator Tim Seymor tells everyone to buy the regional banks with both fists. KRE drops from 58.75 to 56.08 over the last 4 days printing a triple-top. Berkshire-Hathaway, Warren Buffet, continues ditching BAC shares.

Note Added Hump Day, 9/25/24, at 10:19 AM EST: XLF 44.79. The 20-day MA support at 44.90 has failed so it now becomes resistance. The 50-day MA is at 43.75 and rising.

Note Added Saturday, 9/28/24: XLF finishes the week at 45.15 with price maintaining the 20-day MA support at 44.92. The charts remain negative pointing towards a multi-week down move ahead for XLF.

Note Added Saturday, 10/5/24: XLF finishes the week at 45.65 bouncing on the happy Jobs Report.

Note Added Tuesday, 10/8/24, at 7:46 AM EST: iCapital strategist Anastasia Amoroso tells everyone to buy XLF with both fists. BMO analyst Brian Belski tells investors to buy SNV bank. Bank earnings are on tap in the days ahead and will determine who wins and who loses. Winners and Losers. Life's a gamble, and you might lose.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 10/16/24, at 7:27 PM EST: XLF goes to the moon at 47.48 after the blowout bank earnings. Nothing has changed in the charts but since there is upward thrust, give it a week or two to top out and then begin a multi-week slide. Keystone still has no positions in the banks long or short.

Note Added Friday Morning, 10/25/24, at 5:44 AM EST: XLF 47.15. Banks remain lofty after yearnings and with rates moving higher. A multi-week slide is expected due to the negative divergence. The earnings delayed the top. The top is 47.81 on 10/17/24 but price likely needs to come back up to 47.5+ over the next couple-few days to mark the top on the daily chart and begin a solid multi-week down move.

USD US Dollar Weekly Chart; Sideways Channel; Oversold; Positive Divergence; Lower Band Violation; Testing Critical 200-Week MA Support

There is lots of drama with the US dollar. Fed Chairman Powell offers a 50-bip rate cut today. The dollar is sinking again this week as a month of sogginess continues. Analysts and traders are standing on soap boxes proclaiming that the dollar is toilet paper and about to drop bigtime.

The US dollar weekly chart says the opposite. The dollar will rally. The sideways blue channel has been in play for over 2 years. Buy the dollar at a hundo and sell at 106; rinse and repeat. Here is another test of the bottom rail of the channel at 100. Also, price closes today at 100.28 only 8 pennies away from the critical 200-week MA support at 100.36. It is bounce or die time. The dollar is testing the moving average line's support so price will either bounce higher perhaps back to the 106 upper rail, or, die, and collapse into the abyss with a 9-handle going forward.

Price has violated the lower standard deviation band so the middle band, that is also the 20-wk MA, at 103.45, is on the table going forward as well as the upper band at 106.84. Note the tight band squeeze in July that results in a big price move but the pattern does not predict direction. The big move was lower as price rides the lower standard deviation line lower to the current price.

As price makes a lower low over the last few weeks, and matching price low to the prior lows, the chart indicators are positively diverged (green lines). The RSI, stochastics and CCI are oversold agreeable to a recovery move higher. The possie d is universal and that says the US dollar is all fueled-up and on the ignition pad ready for the ignitors to light. The stoch's and ROC show weak and bleak behavior over the last month wanting price to try and eek out a tiny-bit lower number, but the green lines show that possie d is in play over the last 2 years and over the last month for the RSI, stochastics and CCI.

The Aroon is quite a sight. No wonder the television Talking Heads are calling for more drastic weakness in the greenback. The Aroon red line indicates that the dollar bears are 100% in agreement that more dollar weakness will occur for a long time. The Aroon green line indicates that the dollar bulls are 80% in agreement that the dollar will continue lower for a long time. That's funny. Everybody and his bro are short the dollar expecting the 200-wk MA to fail and few are on the other side of the boat.

The dollar is expected to bounce from here and begin a multi-week rally higher. Those tiny red lines may create a few more days of sogginess but the rally higher should begin anytime. Let's take a quick look at the daily chart to see if we can nail down the timing for the bottom call better. Oh my. Possie d all the way on the daily chart for all the indicators. She is ready to start rallying and begin the multi-week move higher right now. The 2-hour chart is also set up with possie d although it is goofy due to the Fed craziness in the afternoon.

Contrary to what the Wall Street pundits and analysts say, the dollar is set to start rallying higher beginning a multi-week rally. Gold bugs take note. Lots of folks should be surprised since everyone, including the Uber driver and Door Dash delivery guy, say the dollar is going to weaken further. The dollar is on the launchpad and is about to take off higher due to the possie d. Keystone is not playing the dollar long or short currently but obviously the trade going forward would be long the dollar. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 9/19/24, at 4:46 AM EST: The dollar starts to feel the positive divergence launch, running up to 101.47, but then global traders stopped to think, and realize the Fed will always be dovish to always protect the wealthy class in the crony capitalism system, so the 50-bip cut should weaken the dollar. Bloop, down she goes, now at 100.60. Markets will likely be choppy a few days sorting out the Powell drama but the daily chart will not change and a rally in the dollar would still be expected going forward, despite the Fed constantly flapping dovish wings. Gold pops +1%, on the intraday dollar retreat, to 2585. Watch the USD 200-week MA S/R at 100.36; dollar bulls need it to hold; dollar bears want it to fail.

Note Added Friday Morning, 9/20/24, at 6:44 AM EST: The dollar is at 100.82 after printing a 9 handle yesterday at a low of 99.89, and a high at 101.18, a wide range. The 200-wk MA support is 100.36. The drama continues. The possie d on the daily chart has the dollar rocket on the launchpad waiting for the fuse to be lit so it can explode higher as everyone on Wall Street, even the peanut gallery, guarantee more dollar weakness ahead.

Note Added Saturday Morning, 9/21/24: The dollar is at 100.42 and the 200-wk MA support is at 100.36 only 6 pennies away. The drama continues. Mister Dollar, it is time for you to bounce or die. Well, which is it?

Note Added Monday Morning, 9/23/24, at 6:28 AM EST: The US dollar index is at the 101.01 palindrome. The 20-day MA is 101.06. The 200-wk MA is 100.40 and holding as support. Dollar bulls must push above 101.06 to prove they got game which should occur since the possie d on the daily chart is a powerful upside force.

Note Added Tuesday Evening, 9/24/24, at 8:04 PM EST: The dollar drops to 100.25 testing the critical 200-wk MA support at 100.40 and falling through. The greenback is getting beat-up in the alleyway behind the dumpster. Can the buck battle back pushing above 100.40 to chart the start of a new multi-week up move, or will it fold like a cheap suit and begin printing 99-handles? The daily chart is positively diverged and has the dollar on the launch pad and ready for a rocket launch higher. All it needs is for something to light the fuse so the possie d can kick into gear. The dollar chart may create a W-pattern bottom if she pops right now which she should. A W-pattern bottom is extremely strong to the upside, when it forms under both the 50 and 200-day MA's, like now. The dollar is ready to make some news. If stocks are ready to drop, that may occur with a dollar pop.

Note Added Hump Day, 9/25/24, at 9:59 AM EST: The dollar is at 100.37 and the 200-wk MA is 100.40. Fickle Miss Dollar cannot make up her mind. Well, little Lady in Red, it is time to bounce or die. Time to choose.

Note Added Hump Day, 9/25/24, at 10:09 AM EST: The dollar is at 100.42 and the 200-wk MA is 100.40. Bounce or die.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 9/26/24, at 4:53 AM EST: The dollar is at 100.93 and the 20-day MA is 100.99 acting as resistance. The dollar bounces off the critical 200-week and the new test is to get up through the 20-day which will lead to far more upside in the dollar. The positive divergence on the dollar daily chart launches price higher.

Note Added Saturday, 9/28/24: The dollar drama continues with the greenback pulling back to 100.11 with the 200-wk MA at 100.40. Dollar bears are trying to crush the buck and surrogates remain on the internet and television bashing the dollar every 5 minutes. However, the dollar daily chart remains in positive divergence wanting to launch the dollar higher like a rocket. The Aroon for the daily chart indicates that 100% of the dollar bears expect the buck to go down forever while nearly all the dollar bulls also expect the buck to go down forever (think contrarian). Data and Fed speak keep the dollar chopping sideways for a couple weeks printing a 99-handle three out of the last 8 days. Considering that everybody and his bro says the dollar will weaken further, including Aunt Harriet baking cookies in the kitchen, she says everyone knows that, they sure will be surprised when the dollar starts receiving the possie d rocket launch in the daily time frame.

Note Added Monday Afternoon, 9/30/24, at 8:51 AM EST: USD 100.37.

Note Added Monday Evening, 9/30/24, at 6:02 PM EST: USD 100.75. 20-day MA 100.83 (resistance). 200-wk MA 100.45 (support).

Note Added Tuesday Evening, 10/1/24, at 5:33 PM EST: USD 101.20. 20-day MA 100.79 (support). 50-day MA 101.79 (resistance). 200-wk MA 100.45 (support).The dock workers at the US ports are on strike and Iran is firing missiles at Israel.

Note Added Saturday, 10/5/24: USD is up to 102.28 as the possie d rocket launch continues. Keystone was correct again calling the bottom in the buck. Isn't it sickening that the crony capitalism scum on Wall Street tells you that tops and bottoms cannot be called? The talking heads also said the dollar has nowhere to go but down; they were wrong. All the idiots had to do was look at the charts. The investment houses only want your money so they can make money by using your money and you also serve as the bag holdin' sucka when the stock market turns south. Welcome to America's filthy crony capitalism system. Get yours while you can. Money, you some-b*tches; it's all about the money.

Note Added Wednesday, 10/9/24: USD is up to 102.69 as the possie d rocket launch continues. There should be a few more days of up tagging the 103 .00 congestion zone from early August. A pullback in the daily frame will then likely occur, for a week or two, then the upside should continue since the weekly chart remains long and strong.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 10/16/24, at 7:30 PM EST: USD 103.40. The 200-day MA is 103.61. The 50-week MA is 103.47 serving-up resistance. The 20-week MA is at 102.94.

Note Added Sunday, 10/20/24: USD 103.31. The dollar prints 103.69 last week and faces formidable resistance at the 200-day MA at 103.62 and 50-wk MA at 103.47. If you bring up the dollar daily chart, you can see that she is topping out right now with neggie d. The MACD may want another jog move (down, up) over the next 2 days to firmly commit to the negative divergence. The dollar weekly chart, however, remains long and strong both the RSI and stochastics moving up through 50% into bull territory. Remember, trading is like playing multi-dimensional chess only the time frames are the dimensions not vertical space. Thus, the US dollar index should top out in the daily time frame now, or perhaps 2 days from now if the MACD needs a touch more time, and move lower for a few days or week or so. At that time, the weekly time frame will reexert its influence and the dollar will begin rallying again, heading higher, above the 50-wk, to continue the multi-week rally higher, perhaps to 106 during the coming weeks to test the prior highs. If you bring up the euro chart, $EURUSD, now at 1.0865, you expect to see the mirror image of the US dollar since the dollar and euro baskets hold about two-thirds of each other's currency; they move inverse to each other. And, as expected, the euro is now bouncing off a bottom, on the daily basis, from positive divergence, however, the euro weekly chart shows weak and bleak indicators, so, after a few days or week or so of the euro moving higher, it will again begin dropping to continue the multi-week slide lower, perhaps to 1.06-1.07 during the coming weeks to test the prior lows.

Note Added Friday Morning, 10/25/24, at 5:45 AM EST: USD 104.07. The high two days ago is 104.41. Analysts now say the rally in the dollar is due to traders pricing-in a victory for former President Trump on 11/5/24. Hey idiots, look at the charts. The dollar rallied because of possie d as forecasted and explained above.