USD US Dollar Weekly Chart; Sideways Channel; Oversold; Positive Divergence; Lower Band Violation; Testing Critical 200-Week MA Support

There is lots of drama with the US dollar. Fed Chairman Powell offers a 50-bip rate cut today. The dollar is sinking again this week as a month of sogginess continues. Analysts and traders are standing on soap boxes proclaiming that the dollar is toilet paper and about to drop bigtime.

The US dollar weekly chart says the opposite. The dollar will rally. The sideways blue channel has been in play for over 2 years. Buy the dollar at a hundo and sell at 106; rinse and repeat. Here is another test of the bottom rail of the channel at 100. Also, price closes today at 100.28 only 8 pennies away from the critical 200-week MA support at 100.36. It is bounce or die time. The dollar is testing the moving average line's support so price will either bounce higher perhaps back to the 106 upper rail, or, die, and collapse into the abyss with a 9-handle going forward.

Price has violated the lower standard deviation band so the middle band, that is also the 20-wk MA, at 103.45, is on the table going forward as well as the upper band at 106.84. Note the tight band squeeze in July that results in a big price move but the pattern does not predict direction. The big move was lower as price rides the lower standard deviation line lower to the current price.

As price makes a lower low over the last few weeks, and matching price low to the prior lows, the chart indicators are positively diverged (green lines). The RSI, stochastics and CCI are oversold agreeable to a recovery move higher. The possie d is universal and that says the US dollar is all fueled-up and on the ignition pad ready for the ignitors to light. The stoch's and ROC show weak and bleak behavior over the last month wanting price to try and eek out a tiny-bit lower number, but the green lines show that possie d is in play over the last 2 years and over the last month for the RSI, stochastics and CCI.

The Aroon is quite a sight. No wonder the television Talking Heads are calling for more drastic weakness in the greenback. The Aroon red line indicates that the dollar bears are 100% in agreement that more dollar weakness will occur for a long time. The Aroon green line indicates that the dollar bulls are 80% in agreement that the dollar will continue lower for a long time. That's funny. Everybody and his bro are short the dollar expecting the 200-wk MA to fail and few are on the other side of the boat.

The dollar is expected to bounce from here and begin a multi-week rally higher. Those tiny red lines may create a few more days of sogginess but the rally higher should begin anytime. Let's take a quick look at the daily chart to see if we can nail down the timing for the bottom call better. Oh my. Possie d all the way on the daily chart for all the indicators. She is ready to start rallying and begin the multi-week move higher right now. The 2-hour chart is also set up with possie d although it is goofy due to the Fed craziness in the afternoon.

Contrary to what the Wall Street pundits and analysts say, the dollar is set to start rallying higher beginning a multi-week rally. Gold bugs take note. Lots of folks should be surprised since everyone, including the Uber driver and Door Dash delivery guy, say the dollar is going to weaken further. The dollar is on the launchpad and is about to take off higher due to the possie d. Keystone is not playing the dollar long or short currently but obviously the trade going forward would be long the dollar. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 9/19/24, at 4:46 AM EST: The dollar starts to feel the positive divergence launch, running up to 101.47, but then global traders stopped to think, and realize the Fed will always be dovish to always protect the wealthy class in the crony capitalism system, so the 50-bip cut should weaken the dollar. Bloop, down she goes, now at 100.60. Markets will likely be choppy a few days sorting out the Powell drama but the daily chart will not change and a rally in the dollar would still be expected going forward, despite the Fed constantly flapping dovish wings. Gold pops +1%, on the intraday dollar retreat, to 2585. Watch the USD 200-week MA S/R at 100.36; dollar bulls need it to hold; dollar bears want it to fail.

Note Added Friday Morning, 9/20/24, at 6:44 AM EST: The dollar is at 100.82 after printing a 9 handle yesterday at a low of 99.89, and a high at 101.18, a wide range. The 200-wk MA support is 100.36. The drama continues. The possie d on the daily chart has the dollar rocket on the launchpad waiting for the fuse to be lit so it can explode higher as everyone on Wall Street, even the peanut gallery, guarantee more dollar weakness ahead.

Note Added Saturday Morning, 9/21/24: The dollar is at 100.42 and the 200-wk MA support is at 100.36 only 6 pennies away. The drama continues. Mister Dollar, it is time for you to bounce or die. Well, which is it?

Note Added Monday Morning, 9/23/24, at 6:28 AM EST: The US dollar index is at the 101.01 palindrome. The 20-day MA is 101.06. The 200-wk MA is 100.40 and holding as support. Dollar bulls must push above 101.06 to prove they got game which should occur since the possie d on the daily chart is a powerful upside force.

Note Added Tuesday Evening, 9/24/24, at 8:04 PM EST: The dollar drops to 100.25 testing the critical 200-wk MA support at 100.40 and falling through. The greenback is getting beat-up in the alleyway behind the dumpster. Can the buck battle back pushing above 100.40 to chart the start of a new multi-week up move, or will it fold like a cheap suit and begin printing 99-handles? The daily chart is positively diverged and has the dollar on the launch pad and ready for a rocket launch higher. All it needs is for something to light the fuse so the possie d can kick into gear. The dollar chart may create a W-pattern bottom if she pops right now which she should. A W-pattern bottom is extremely strong to the upside, when it forms under both the 50 and 200-day MA's, like now. The dollar is ready to make some news. If stocks are ready to drop, that may occur with a dollar pop.

Note Added Hump Day, 9/25/24, at 9:59 AM EST: The dollar is at 100.37 and the 200-wk MA is 100.40. Fickle Miss Dollar cannot make up her mind. Well, little Lady in Red, it is time to bounce or die. Time to choose.

Note Added Hump Day, 9/25/24, at 10:09 AM EST: The dollar is at 100.42 and the 200-wk MA is 100.40. Bounce or die.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 9/26/24, at 4:53 AM EST: The dollar is at 100.93 and the 20-day MA is 100.99 acting as resistance. The dollar bounces off the critical 200-week and the new test is to get up through the 20-day which will lead to far more upside in the dollar. The positive divergence on the dollar daily chart launches price higher.

Note Added Saturday, 9/28/24: The dollar drama continues with the greenback pulling back to 100.11 with the 200-wk MA at 100.40. Dollar bears are trying to crush the buck and surrogates remain on the internet and television bashing the dollar every 5 minutes. However, the dollar daily chart remains in positive divergence wanting to launch the dollar higher like a rocket. The Aroon for the daily chart indicates that 100% of the dollar bears expect the buck to go down forever while nearly all the dollar bulls also expect the buck to go down forever (think contrarian). Data and Fed speak keep the dollar chopping sideways for a couple weeks printing a 99-handle three out of the last 8 days. Considering that everybody and his bro says the dollar will weaken further, including Aunt Harriet baking cookies in the kitchen, she says everyone knows that, they sure will be surprised when the dollar starts receiving the possie d rocket launch in the daily time frame.

Note Added Monday Afternoon, 9/30/24, at 8:51 AM EST: USD 100.37.

Note Added Monday Evening, 9/30/24, at 6:02 PM EST: USD 100.75. 20-day MA 100.83 (resistance). 200-wk MA 100.45 (support).

Note Added Tuesday Evening, 10/1/24, at 5:33 PM EST: USD 101.20. 20-day MA 100.79 (support). 50-day MA 101.79 (resistance). 200-wk MA 100.45 (support).The dock workers at the US ports are on strike and Iran is firing missiles at Israel.

Note Added Saturday, 10/5/24: USD is up to 102.28 as the possie d rocket launch continues. Keystone was correct again calling the bottom in the buck. Isn't it sickening that the crony capitalism scum on Wall Street tells you that tops and bottoms cannot be called? The talking heads also said the dollar has nowhere to go but down; they were wrong. All the idiots had to do was look at the charts. The investment houses only want your money so they can make money by using your money and you also serve as the bag holdin' sucka when the stock market turns south. Welcome to America's filthy crony capitalism system. Get yours while you can. Money, you some-b*tches; it's all about the money.

Note Added Wednesday, 10/9/24: USD is up to 102.69 as the possie d rocket launch continues. There should be a few more days of up tagging the 103 .00 congestion zone from early August. A pullback in the daily frame will then likely occur, for a week or two, then the upside should continue since the weekly chart remains long and strong.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 10/16/24, at 7:30 PM EST: USD 103.40. The 200-day MA is 103.61. The 50-week MA is 103.47 serving-up resistance. The 20-week MA is at 102.94.

Note Added Sunday, 10/20/24: USD 103.31. The dollar prints 103.69 last week and faces formidable resistance at the 200-day MA at 103.62 and 50-wk MA at 103.47. If you bring up the dollar daily chart, you can see that she is topping out right now with neggie d. The MACD may want another jog move (down, up) over the next 2 days to firmly commit to the negative divergence. The dollar weekly chart, however, remains long and strong both the RSI and stochastics moving up through 50% into bull territory. Remember, trading is like playing multi-dimensional chess only the time frames are the dimensions not vertical space. Thus, the US dollar index should top out in the daily time frame now, or perhaps 2 days from now if the MACD needs a touch more time, and move lower for a few days or week or so. At that time, the weekly time frame will reexert its influence and the dollar will begin rallying again, heading higher, above the 50-wk, to continue the multi-week rally higher, perhaps to 106 during the coming weeks to test the prior highs. If you bring up the euro chart, $EURUSD, now at 1.0865, you expect to see the mirror image of the US dollar since the dollar and euro baskets hold about two-thirds of each other's currency; they move inverse to each other. And, as expected, the euro is now bouncing off a bottom, on the daily basis, from positive divergence, however, the euro weekly chart shows weak and bleak indicators, so, after a few days or week or so of the euro moving higher, it will again begin dropping to continue the multi-week slide lower, perhaps to 1.06-1.07 during the coming weeks to test the prior lows.

Note Added Friday Morning, 10/25/24, at 5:45 AM EST: USD 104.07. The high two days ago is 104.41. Analysts now say the rally in the dollar is due to traders pricing-in a victory for former President Trump on 11/5/24. Hey idiots, look at the charts. The dollar rallied because of possie d as forecasted and explained above.