Gold Weekly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence Developing; Price Extended; Rampant Euphoric Bullish Sentiment for Gold

The gold weekly chart was topped-out with the only caveat the Federal Reserve and what was planned for rate cuts. Chairman Powell fires a money bazooka, because the investment banks will reward him when he leaves office, promising 50-bip cuts for as far as the eye can see. The dollar drops and stocks and gold pop. America's wealthy class celebrate Powell and the era of easy money, the New Gilded Age, that makes the rich super rich and the poor poorer.

The Powell orgy move needed a couple weeks to play out and gold is at 2668 an all-time high and tagged 2709 moving above 2.7K. The folks that bot gold for $250 when the century changed over are happy campers; a quick couple decades go by and gold is a 10-bagger. Gold is topping-out again as the happy Fed news is priced-in. Isn't the crony faux capitalism sickening?

The red rising wedge is bearish. The RSI and stochastics are overbot agreeable to a pullback. The red lines show negative divergence across all indicators except the MACD line. There is always one of them in the crowd. The MACD is only a hair above the prior high but this may be enough to jog price down-up so the MACD has time to go neggie d, so the top for gold, on the weekly basis, is any time between now and 1 to 2 weeks. The chart will tell you when the MACD goes neggie d. The first print for the week tomorrow morning may show the MACD in retreat which would lock the high in right now.

Note how the volume slips away over the last few months. The joyous new lifetime highs in gold come with lackluster volume that generally does not surpass the big volume weeks for this year. The three blue circles show distribution taking place with the smart money handing off gold to the dumb money. Humorously, the traders and investors that held onto gold through the data and Fed speak were rewarded.

The ADX is in the stratosphere continuing to show that the move higher in gold on the weekly basis is a strong trend higher. The ADX is a lagging indicator so it does not provide contrarian information to the bear case above. If the MACD line needs another week or so to line up with neggie d and call the exact top, the ADX will likely be coming off the top as well. Price is extended above the moving averages needing a mean reversion lower.

The Aroon is one for the record books. Every market participant is long gold or 100% bullish gold expecting the yellow metal to continue higher forever. The Aroon green line shows that 100% of the gold bulls expect gold to rally forever. Wheeee. Whoopie! The Aroon red line shows that 100% of the gold bears expect gold to rally forever. Wheeee. What? Say what? Yes, it is off-the-chart euphoric bullishness, complete complacency and fearlessness, and a belief that gold will never drop again. Come on folks, what do you think is going to happen? Keystone is used to sitting alone on one side of the boat but eventually everyone comes over to join him.

Gold is expected to drop now, or bump along sideways-ish for a week or so and then begin dropping, and fall into a multi-week decline. The US dollar daily chart is set to receive a positive divergence rally so that would send gold lower. The upper band is violated so the middle band at 2452, and rising, is on the table, as well as the lower band at 2251.

Keystone is not playing gold derivatives right now, or the miners, either long or short, but obviously the path forward is to short the rallies in gold. Looking at the GLD weekly chart, it is the same as above with the middle band downside target at 225 and rising and the lower band down at 207. Whooaaa, doggie, well, look at that, the MACD is flat, maybe a tiny hair below the prior high on the GLD weekly chart (neggie d) which tells you that the top is in now for GLD on the weekly basis. The GLD daily chart is topped-out and agreeable to a pullback. Ditto the GLD 2-hour chart, it topped-out with neggie d on Friday morning. It looks like it is all systems go for the dollar to pop, gold to drop, and stocks to drop.

The Gold on the Ceiling will soon be on the floor in a multi-week decline. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday Evening, 9/30/24, at 5:56 PM  EST: Gold 2659. GLD 243.06.

Note Added Tuesday Evening, 10/1/24, at 5:41 PM EST: Gold 2690. GLD 245.61. The dock workers at US ports are on strike and Iran is firing missiles at Israel so traders seek safety and flock to gold.

Note Added Saturday, 10/5/24: Gold 2668. Gold staggers flat through the week as the Fed speak and inflation data send the yellow metal to and fro. Gold popped to 2709 on 9/26/24 and is moving through a sideways channel at 2650-2700 for the last 2-1/2 weeks. GLD 245.00. The gold ETF is the same-o story as gold itself flat on the week. GLD popped to 247.37 on 9/26/24 and is moving through a sideways channel at 243-246 for the last 2-1/2 weeks. Gold bulls win big above 2700-2710 and GLD above 246, while gold bears win big below 2650 and GLD below 243. The tension mounts as the Solid Gold Dancers take the stage with the beautiful, classy, intelligent and great performer Irene Cara, singing What a Feeling.

Note Added Wednesday, 10/9/24: Gold 2626. GLD 240.94.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 10/16/24, at 7:15 PM EST: Gold 2691. GLD 247.15. New record high at 248.09. The neggie d remains on the daily and weekly charts sans the MACD on the weekly so just give that a week or two to top out. Ditto gold.

Note Added Sunday, 10/20/24: Gold bulls continue waving the rally banner. Gold prints a euphoric all-time record high at 2730. In a troubled world, gold is in high demand. The central banks are probably buying up the yellow metal as well. Gold bugs deserve their day in the sun. The positive news bites and Fed action send gold to the stratosphere. All the indicators are topped-out with neggie d on the high except the MACD now squeezing out a higher high, thus, the top on the weekly basis needs a jog move down one week then up the next week for the top. GLD jumps to 251.27 with the same scenario. Monthly charts, however, for both point to more higher highs on the monthly basis. Gold will top out in the days ahead and then several weeks of choppiness and a downward bias will follow but into year end and the first of the year gold should be making more new record highs. If gold tags 2800, it opens the door to 3200 as per Keystone's 80/20 Rule, but the path there may be through the 2300-2500 area first.

Note Added Friday Morning, 10/25/24, at 5:35 AM EST: Gold 2749. The sideways dance continues. GLD is at 252.80 with a hanging man candlestick on the daily chart. The RSI and MACD squeeze out a higher high due to the gold hype in recent days so the top may be delayed by a week or so. The daily chart wants a spankdown now so probably short quick pullback for a few days, then another matching or higher high, then roll over and die due to the neggie d that will reform with the RSI and MACD on the weekly. The central bankers have decided to buy gold with both fists over the last month as global turmoil spins out of control and the US presidential election is within sight.