SPX S&P 500 Weekly Chart and Citi Surprise Index

The Citi Surprise Index is quoted by many analysts and television pundits and commentators. Why? It is worthless.

The Citigroup index is shown above the chart is courtesy of MacroMicro and annotated by Keystone. The Citi Surprise Index, that analysts quote as if it is something important, is a junk index that simply takes the US stock market (SPX; S&P 500) price chart and flattens it out.

The green and red circles highlight some key highs and lows over the last couple decades and these prices exactly match the surprise index so all you are looking at is the stock market price behavior presented as a sideways graph. Citi calls it a surprise index since the chart has no predictive value or worth so it is given an obscure name so it can be whatever you want it to be. Ignore it. It's junk.

When stocks sell off and are down in the dumps, lo and behold, the so-called surprise index is down at its low. When the stock market is at its peak so is the surprise index. It has no predictive value.

In fact, it is beyond worthless since it can provide bad signals that make you put on bad trades. The blue line in 2007 corresponds to the SPX rising. The surprise index is rising so that tells you the bull trade is on and has legs. Wrong. Stocks topped-out and fell like rocks. Joe Sixpack is a great sucka and bag holder.

In 2009, stocks tank and are down in the basement so the so-called surprise index is as well. Again, lower lows are occurring in the stock market and on the surprise chart indicating more weakness ahead. Wrong. Stocks rallied when the Federal Reserve started printing money like madmen to protect the wealthy in America's dirtbag crony capitalism system.

In 2018, the surprise index has its one stint of glory. The stock market was making higher highs but the surprise index dropped, a negative divergence, so that hinted at a top which occurred. Generally, however, ignore the surprise index. It is junk. It is the stock market stretched out in a horizontal graph. If you want to know where the surprise index is at, simply look at the stock market; if stocks are going down, so is the surprise graph and if stocks are rallying, the graph moves higher.

Comically, it is a chart that the smart money can use to get the dumb money to keep buying stocks as distribution is occurring. Wall Street is a great money-maker if you know all the corrupt games.

This just in..... Citi proclaims that the SPX (S&P 500) will hit 5K by the middle of next year (within next 10 months). This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.