US Unemployment Claims Weekly Chart; US Jobless Claims Remain in a 10-Month Uptrend

US Unemployment Claims are released every Thursday morning at 8:30 AM EST. The steady narrative over the last weeks and few months is that Claims are not rising so there is no sign of a recession ahead. Granted, the numbers are not rising at a sharp and fast rate as would be expected going into a recession, however, look at the chart folks.

US Jobless Claims are trending higher, as per the 4-week MA, since last September now 10 months along. What part of that don't you understand?

Everyday you hear about how great the job market is but why is that the case when Unemployment Claims have been rising for over 10 months?

The 4-wk MA is at 234K moving higher since September and the trend is higher since the chart is non-stop with higher highs and higher lows. The 4-wk MA remains in an uptrend despite the moving average dropping over the last 4 weeks. The entire 4-wk MA trend line has a pulse behavior starting in September it is 8 weeks up then 6 weeks down, then 8 weeks up then 7 weeks down, then 4 weeks up now 5 weeks down. Each of the up surges are similar in magnitude but the last pulse ran higher in 4 weeks instead of 8 weeks.

The next data point is Thursday of this week, 8/3/23, and that, along with the following week on 8/10/23, will provide valuable insight into the path forward. Rising Claims are standard as the US slips into recession. Will the uptrend falter going forward or accelerate higher guaranteeing a recession?

If Claims come in very light this week and pull the 4-wk MA lower, that may finally be a lower low that jeopardizes the 10-mth trend line. However, Claims will need to take out the prior support lows to wave the all-clear flag.

Commentators, analysts and traders are sanguine about Unemployment Claims saying they are not rising so there is no need to worry about a recession. Hey dolts, Claims are rising for over 10 months. Capiche? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.