NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart; 40-Wk MA Cross Teasing Potential Bull Market

This is bigtime. There are 3 key metrics for determining a cyclical bull versus bear market. First, is the SPX monthly chart with the 12 MA cross and the SPX remains below the 12-mth MA signaling an ongoing bear market.

Second, is the slope of the 150 MA on the SPX daily chart and the 150-day MA continues sloping lower signaling an ongoing bear market.

Third, is the NYA weekly chart with the 40 MA cross and price is now at 15353 teasing above the 40-week MA at 15297. This is a big deal. If the NYA remains above 15297, it signals that several weeks of upside in stocks is likely ahead.

If this happy outcome occurs for bulls, watch the other 2 metrics to see if they develop into cyclical bull markets. If so, stocks are going way higher. If not (the other 2 metrics remain in a bear market), the NYA will become more soggy over time and then likely roll over lower again.

If the NYA stumbles over the coming days and couple weeks, and cannot maintain 15297 as support, and it fails, maybe failing today, it spells major trouble ahead for the stock market.

The chart shows the bear market that started due to the COVID-19 pandemic then stocks were back into a bull market with America's wealthy class making money hand over fist, without effort, due to the government fiscal stimulus largess and the sick Federal Reserve continuing to print money for over a decade (monetary stimulus).

The bull party ends as 2022 begins with the NYA losing the 40-wk MA. Price comes up for the back kiss in March, which was a successful test for bears, and the NYA collapses printing lower highs and lower lows (bearish behavior).

It is all on the line now. NYA 15297 tells you everything you need to know about the United States stock market right now. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9:37 AM EST: The NYA is down a hair at 15341 with the 40-week MA at 15264 so this is the number to watch instead of the 15297 above. If price moves lower, the 40-wk MA will likely relax a little lower so 15260-15264 is the bull/bear line in the sand.

Note Added 9:55 AM EST: NYA 15324. 200-day MA 15339. 40-wk MA 15264. NYA is bumping its head against the 200-day so it will be important if it can punch up though, or, if it is spanked-down from the 200.

Note Added 7:30 PM EST: Thwack. A spankdown occurs from the moving averages. NYA runs higher to 15416 at 2 PM EST then nosedives off the cliff, through the 40-wk MA at 15263, plummeting to 15229 remaining in bear market territory. This fight will continue over the coming days. Today's battle goes to the bears but the war for the 40-wk MA still has to play out over the next week or two.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 11/15/22, at 10:00 AM EST: The bulls waste no time battling back. Yesterday was a bear trap that is snared and now the bulls are running higher like a banshee. The NYA pops to 15463 at highs not seen since August leaving the 40-wk MA at 15268, and 200-day MA at 15333, in the dust. These moving averages now become support. The 40-week MA is very important so price will probably want to come back down at some point for a back kiss to prove that it wants to then go higher. Let the orgy begin.

Note Added Thursday Evening, 11/17/22, at 7:00 PM EST: The bears push back. NYA is at 15224 below the 40-wk MA at 15262 so the cyclical bear market is back in play. This battle will continue and dictates if there are a few weeks of rally ahead, or not.

Note Added Saturday Morning, 11/19/22: The NYA continues its flightiness dancing above the 40-wk MA at 16263, but then preferring the bear camp at munch time, and then flirting higher again during the last hour of trading closing at 15310 in cyclical bull market territory and sitting on the 200-day MA at 15309 an obvious pivot point for Monday. Bulls win above 15310 while bears win below 15309 and then bears win big below 15263. For the weekend into Monday, the bulls have the ball above 15309.