By K E Stone (Keystone)
Happy Easter, Passover, Ramadan and full Pink Moon all rolled into one. The
universe is a busy place.
The BA2 Omicron Subvariant and its new mutated henchmen,
BA212 and BA2121, are in the house, like a Poltergeist. “They’re here.” New
York is the poster child for the new BA2 little sister wave that is underway. BA2
is the companion wave to the BA1 moon-shot wave (the inverted V (ice pick)
pattern). BA1 is the big sister wave and BA2 will be the little sister. As New
York goes, so goes the other states.
The New York daily new cases chart is shown above. New York
reports 6.6K daily new cases for Good Friday, yesterday, an elevated number but
below Thursday’s biggest number thus far for the BA2 wave at 8.1K cases. Any
day forward above 8.1K cases spells big trouble for the Big Apple and Empire
State. The 7-day MA for New York is up to 6.0K cases per day and rising.
Clearly, the BA2 wave is underway in New York and the same
pattern will likely play out for the other states. The chart shows the moon-shot
B11529 Botswana/South Africa Variant (omicron; BA1) big sister wave. The days
and couple weeks ahead will determine the height of the BA2 little sister wave.
The 3-day MA for New York daily new cases prints higher
highs and higher lows; not good. This behavior verifies the ongoing uptrend in
New York cases that is expected to continue. Will the BA2 daily cases wave, now
that it is officially underway in New York, become a minor bump that resolves
quickly, or, will the outbreak fester into a more substantive infection wave?
The CDC Community Transmission map shows higher infection
rates in northern New York recommending mask use in some counties. The CDCwastewater map is not of much use; too much emphasis is being placed on this
data.
Daily new cases are the key data to use for forecasting
developing infection waves. The CDC does not update its data fast enough which
is incompetence considering the technology available. The CDC is driving the
American bus down the road looking in the rearview mirror.
Infections from Canada are migrating south. Little baby King
Trudeau needs to focus his attention on the pandemic instead of destroying
Canuck’s lives because they do not agree with his draconian edicts and
tyrannical rule.
Canada’s daily new cases chart is shown above with the 7-day
MA running higher at 10K cases per day. The 7-day MA s trying to curl over but
considering the big spike over 19K cases that just printed, the 7-day MA will
want to remain elevated. Canada’s BA2 wave is underway and it can serve as a
poster boy for the wave behavior in the United States. 123 Canucks die from
China Virus yesterday the most in 2 months.
The CDC estimates that 85% of the cases in the United States
are currently the BA2 Omicron Subvariant and 92% of the cases are BA2 in the
northeastern states.
New York scientists have identified the BA212 and BA2121
variants that mutated from the BA2 strain. These infections appear more
prevalent in New York and Canada. The variant list grows larger by the day. The
B11529 Botswana/South Africa Variant, dubbed omicron by the WHO with their
jackass naming system that creates confusion for the sake of wokeness, is also
given the BA1 designation. From the BA1 Omicron Variant, there is now the BA2
Omicron Subvariant and BA11, XD, XE, BA3, BA4, BA5, BA212 and BA2121. Huh? It
is what it is.
The WHO says BA2 is the dominant variant worldwide currently.
Limited numbers of BA4 and BA5 cases are appearing in Africa and Europe and
preliminary testing indicates that the subvariants are not as deadly or
contagious as other strains. There are 41 cases of BA4 in South Africa, 2 in
Botswana, 3 in Denmark, 1 in England and 1 in Scotland. BA4 is small potatoes,
so far.
There are 27 cases of BA5 in South Africa and a like amount
in Botswana. The World Health Organization is concerned about BA4, BA5 and
other mutations because of the potential for immune escape (viruses evade the
immune system of the host).
The WHO says the XE variant is not as deadly as earlier
strains but it may be more contagious. XE is first identified in the UK and
appears in Thailand, India, Israel and Japan. The XE cases are bumping higher
in the UK but remain small numbers. Japan may serve as the poster boy for the
XE variant with a new wave underway.
Japan’s daily new cases chart is shown above. Japan reports
2 days of daily new cases over 55K per day with the 7-day MA up to 50K cases
per day and climbing higher. The XE variant is in play for this new wave that
is underway for the island nation. Japan may serve as the poster child for the
XE variant wave behavior.
The WHO variant page lists the XD variant, first discoveredin France, as a VUM (variant under monitoring). Since the WHO is not providing
clarification on the status of the many variants in play, the mutations XE,
BA11, BA2, BA3, BA4, BA5, BA212 and BA2121 are assumed to be part of the B11529
Botswana/South Africa Variant (omicron; BA1) lineage and under the
classification of VOC (variant of concern; the top, and worst, rating).
The United States daily cases chart is shown above. The US reports
39.6K daily new cases for Good Friday, yesterday. Thursday was 44.6K cases the
highest number for the new BA2 wave 7 and the most cases in 6 weeks. It is
encouraging that the cases are not higher than 44.6K since that would be
expected but the Good Friday data (less reporting) is likely skewing the number
lower. There may be some catch-up and ugly numbers early next week.
The 7-day MA for US daily new cases is up to 35.8K cases per
day heading higher; not good. The 3-day MA trend line is printing higher highs
and higher lows verifying the ongoing uptrend in cases. The only question now,
like New York above, is if the new BA2 wave 7 is a little bump (like wave 4) or
if it balloons into something more substantive (like waves 3 and 6).
The US active cases drop to 1.14 million on Thursday but increase
to 1.15 million on Friday likely the exact bottom inflection point. Hospitals
and clinics are at a flatline with caseloads right now but the active cases are
about to increase. To what extent remains an unknown. Worldometer adjusted and
updated the active cases data resulting in dropping the active cases curve
sharply.
257 million Americans (77%) have at least one dose of themRNA vaccine coursing through their veins and from one-quarter to one-half of
the nation has been infected with COVID-19. The vaccine immunity and natural
immunity numbers combine into a strong herd immunity protective wall. We will
see how strong the US wall is against BA2 over the next couple weeks.
The US vaccination rate increases to nearly 500K shots perday up from the depths of despair at only about 160K shots per day during
March. Humans are funny. People catch wind that the BA2 Omicron Subvariant is
knocking at their door so some run out to get a booster shot to try and save
their sorry arse.
US COVID-19 hospital admissions have bottomed and are on the
rise another indication that US wave 7 is underway. The rise in hospital
admissions is notable for the elderly folks. Using the dropdown menu, the rise
in admissions in New York are occurring in all age groups. Ditto New Jersey, Massachusetts,
Rhode Island, Vermont, New Hampshire and others.
Hospital admissions are spiking sharply higher in Vermont
and New Hampshire. It must be the BA212 and BA2121 mutants, and Canada’s covid stink
moving south, that is wreaking havoc in the northeastern states.
US COVID-19 hospitalizations are flatlining at 9.8K. Using
the dropdown menu, New York hospitalizations are increasing. Massachusetts sees
a pop. Ditto New Hampshire. Vermont hospitalizations jump large. US wave 7 is
underway. Remember, the CDC data is always a day late and a dollar short
consistently days behind so the hospital admissions and hospitalizations data are
likely worse. Admissions lead hospitalizations by about 3 or 4 days.
US deaths from China Flu are over 1.015 million as perWorldometer. Johns-Hopkins, the CDC and IHME remain down in the 980K’s as if
they are holding back the numbers trying to avoid the 1 million deaths grim
milestone but, like the dentist, you can avoid the pain only so long and then
you must face the music.
The US daily deaths chart is shown above. US deaths drop to
370 deaths per day better than the January peak, only 3 months ago, at over
3.5K deaths per day, but there is more work to be done. President Biden is
bungling the pandemic not providing adequate supplies of the treatments and
therapies for unvaccinated folks. If you did not kneel before power to take
multiple vaccinations, then you are expendable.
400 Americans dying per day from COVID-19 after over two
years of a pandemic is incompetence.
Obviously, not enough is being done to protect the unvaccinated folks.
The death rate is not encouraging until it drops below 250 deaths per day which
is the low in the 7-day MA trend line from last July.
The television talking heads need to tell people to refer to
the COVID-19 Therapeutics Locator if they test positive. It is information that
can help their doctors in finding the correct treatment as fast as possible. If
unvaccinated, locate the Pfizer Paxlovid pills, Eli Lilly Bebtelovimab
monoclonal antibody (mAb) treatment or Merck’s less effective molnupiravir drug
and seek help immediately.
EARLY TREATMENT is the key to surviving coronavirus. Sleepy
Joe Biden, the CDC and FDA stopped the use of GlaxoSmithKline’s Sotrovimab mAb
treatment claiming it is not effective against BA2 but there are still BA1
cases occurring and the scientific basis of that decision sounds more like
voodoo science. Biden pursues his vaccine-only strategy like China’s Dictator
Xi pursues his zero-covid strategy. Two closed minds. Political science
overrules actual science.
Florida’s daily new cases chart is shown above. Florida
reports 2.9K cases yesterday and the 7-day MA trend line heads higher at 2.8K
cases per day. Governor DeSantis will have to focus efforts on the new wave
developing.
Vermont’s daily new cases chart is shown above. The 7-day MA
for daily new cases is at 230 cases per day heading higher. Individual days are
starting to top 300 infections per day.
Illinois’s daily new cases chart is shown above. Illinois
reports 5.8K cases over the last 2 days and the 7-day MA is up to 2.0 cases per
day and rising. There are likely many infections occurring in Chicago.
Massachusetts’s daily new cases chart is shown above.
Massachusetts reports 6.0K cases over the last 2 days and the 7-day MA is at
2.7K cases per day heading higher.
New Jersey’s daily new cases chart is shown above. New
Jersey is at 2.0K cases per day heading higher as per the 7-day MA trend line.
China is a mess with the majority of infections occurring in
Shanghai now locked down for 3 weeks and more. The horror stories continue.
Pets are beaten in the street or thrown into plastic bags and left to suffocate
to death. The CCP orders the killings since they believe that China Virus is
transmitted via pets. Chinese folks do not want to report a positive home test
because they and their contacts are thrown into an isolation center and their
pets exterminated.
Other major manufacturing regions are in some form of
lockdown including Zhengzhou, Xian and Suzhou. There are about 25K new cases
occurring daily across China according to the CCP that cannot be trusted; the
number is likely far higher. The CCP data is suspect so it does not lend itself
to good charting.
Only 2 deaths are reported in China in the Jilin province,
none in Shanghai, but people are committing suicide jumping to their deaths
since the month of isolation and starving is too much to bear. It is lies all
the time from the filthy CCP. Hong Kong experienced large death numbers and it
is the same bug infecting the mainland (the death rate in China should be
comparable to Hong Kong). Truckers are in lockdown creating problems with food
distribution.
The CCP is likely content with letting elderly Chinese folks
die since the communist system views them as a burden to the greater good of
society. That is why there was no great effort to vaccinate the elderly; the
CCP likely hopes a lot of them will die. In the United States, considering the
over 1 million deaths from China Virus, the US Social Security system can
surely last many extra years now. COVID-19 culls the old and the fat and
creates pension plan solvency.
Thwack. Taiwan is smacked with nearly 1.3K daily new cases
yesterday the most ever. The 7-day MA goes parabolic at 800 cases per day.
Taiwan is in the midst of its worst wave of the pandemic. Active cases take out
the prior peak so hospitals and clinics are busy. Taiwan is involved in
semiconductor production, a huge player, so global supply chains may be
negatively impacted by the growing outbreak. Good luck to Taiwan, a great
nation that wants nothing to do with China’s (the CCP’s) political control.
Thailand is turning the corner with daily new and active
cases moving lower off their peaks, however, there are 119 deaths the most
since last September. This likely means a lot of older Thailand folks, probably
unvaccinated and/or many with other ailments, are dying from omicron and its
mutations. Thailand deaths should peak in the coming days.
China and Taiwan are the two ugly hotspots in Asia. Europe
is on the mend with daily and active cases charts rolling over to the downside.
Canada, the United States and perhaps Mexico, are next on the BA2 chopping
block.
South America remains insulated from new outbreaks. Will the
mutants strike in the future? In Europe, Spain and Portugal remain unaffected
by the BA2 waves. Perhaps there are certain gene markers less impacted by the
new mutants? Or lifestyles, or diets? Or do they simply no longer report the
data the way it was previously reported?
The world’s daily new cases chart is shown above. The news
is good with global cases down to 851K cases per day and dropping. Worldwide daily
new cases ran over 3.3 million per day in January. It is great news to see the
world’s daily new cases chart dropping ever lower.
The world’s daily new deaths chart is shown above. The
global death rate drops to 2.8K deaths per day a 2-handle! The pandemic
improves daily on a global basis. Hooray!
The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases
in the world at 82 million. India is next with 43 million total virus cases. Brazil,
France, Germany, UK, Russia, South Korea, Italy, Turkey, Spain, Vietnam, Argentina,
Netherlands and Japan round out the top 15 worst nations. Both South Korea and
Italy leap frog Turkey. Japan bumps Iran to number 16. The total cases changes
are becoming incremental a sign that the cases are topping-out worldwide.
COVID-19 has infected 504 million people worldwide crossing
the 500 million milestone. In only 2 years, a spec on a Wuhan Lab Petri dish,
so small that it cannot be seen by the naked eye, infects over 500 million
humans in every corner of the Earth. Remarkable. Jaw-dropping. Intense. Scary.
6.2 million people are dead from the China Flu a grim
statistic. 454 million global citizens have recovered from China Flu. 90% (454/504)
of the people that become infected with COVID-19 recover in a reasonable time
frame. This percentage had been at 90% to 92% for many months, and then dropped
to 80% now rebounding back to 90% over the last couple months. The recovery
rate is rebounding.
Worldwide, 1.2% (6.2/504) of the people that are infected
with covid die; 1 in 81. This number sat at 2.1%-2.2% for many months but
trends lower for the last 4 months to 1.2%. The vaccinations and natural
immunities are helping to lower the world’s death rate albeit by small increments.
6.6% (504/7670) of the world’s population of 7.67 billion
people have been infected with coronavirus; 1 in every 15 people on earth. This
was 1 in every 24 people 3 months ago and 1 in 18 about a month ago. This
behavior (a fast rate lower) verifies the contagiousness of the Omicron variant.
0.08% of the world’s population (6.2/7670) died from the
pandemic; 1 in every 1,237 people on earth died from China Virus.
In the United States, 82 million people are infected with covid.
1.015 million Americans are dead. 80 million Americans have recovered from coronavirus.
This equates to 97% (80/82) of US citizens recovering after becoming infected
with COVID-19. This number is a dramatic improvement from the 61% to 84% range
that it has always honored. Worldometer adjusted the data creating the shift.
Worldometer may have changed the way the active cases and
recovered cases are tallied. The recovered cases include the patients that
recover from COVID-19 and those that are discharged, however, folks may be
walking home with long-covid in their back pocket. For now, this data has to go
into the suspect camp. The world’s recovery percentage is at 90% so the US
should be comparable.
In the US, 1.2% (1/82) of the people infected with COVID-19
die. This number was sticky at 1.6% to 1.8% for many months but has sagged to
1.2% over the last 5 months. 1 in every 82 US citizens that are infected with coronavirus
die. 0.3% (1/330) of Americans have died from COVID-19 which is 1 in every 330 Americans
over the last 2 years.
25% (82/330) of the American population of 330 million
people have been infected with covid; 1 in every 4 Americans. The minority
communities are impacted disproportionately. The 25% that now have natural
immunities solidly contribute towards herd immunity. The number of people with natural
immunity are likely far higher than reported probably double the 25%.
The medical authorities say one-half of Americans may have
had COVID-19 (most cases are asymptomatic). Many Americans had covid at home
and never saw a doctor or reported the illness, and they have some level of natural
antibody protection.
The United States has 16% (82/504) of the COVID-19 cases in
the world. 1 in 6 people that become infected with covid on planet earth are
Americans. The US vaccination program made an impact month’s ago, but not so
much in recent weeks and months. This percentage was 22% about one year ago so
it is flatlining for a long time.
The US accounts for 16% (1/6.2) of the China Flu deaths in
the world. 1 in 6 people that die from COVID-19 around the world are Americans.
9 months ago, it was 1 in 5. The numbers are stalled at the same level for the
last few months.
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model,
the Keystone Model for short, is a simple model that predicts when the active
cases chart will flatten-out and roll-over lower. The active cases chart is the
‘flatten the curve’ chart that represents the maximum stress and strain on the
medical system and healthcare workers. Once the active cases chart rolls over
forming the bell shape, the virus is being defeated and healthcare workers can
breathe easier.
The Keystone Model uses the peak in the daily new cases to
forecast the peak and flattening of the active cases curve. The ‘flattening of
the curve’ only pertains to the active cases chart. For communist nations where
the populations must do what they are told or they receive a bullet in their
heads (China), and for smaller authoritarian nations (Eastern European
countries, Africa and Middle East nations), and many Asian nations where
citizens follow government rules without questioning authority (South Korea,
Japan, Singapore, Australia), the active cases curve will peak, on average, 11
days after the peak in daily new cases.
For the Western countries, such as the US and European
nations, the so-called free societies, the active cases curve will peak, on
average, 28 days after the peak in new cases. It takes about 2 weeks longer for
a free society to tamp down a virus wave than a communist or authoritarian
state because lockdowns are not strictly followed or enforced.
All projections below for countries and the US states
continue to use the 11 and 28-day periods for forecasting for consistency. When
the peak in daily new cases occurs, if a subsequent day is within 8% of that
peak top, it is identified as the peak in daily new cases day in reference to
the Keystone Model.
The peak in the daily new cases is easily seen on the bar
charts provided by Worldometer, the CDC and Johns-Hopkins. The daily new cases
bar charts are shown on television news channels with a 7-day moving average
(MA) line which is a smoothing mechanism that identifies the trend.
An update for The Keystone Model is provided since another
10-day period passes and more data and information become available to push the
China Virus story forward. The Coronavirus Chronology identifies the real-time
hotspots occurring around the world and within the United States. The
chronology serves as a historical document that will be referenced for decades
to come by those that want to experience the entire pandemic as it unfolds in
real-time.
With the pandemic hopefully subsiding and entering an
endemic phase, the Coronavirus Chronology articles may end soon. The BA2 bug is
another fly in the covid ointment. If the country and US state lists below
dwindle down to only a handful of names, that will likely be time to end the
chronology. For now, Article 74 continues and the BA2 Omicron Subvariant extends
the pandemic pain with wave 7 underway.
The Coronavirus Chronology compilation of articles will be
published in the future by Amazon and others and distributed internationally. This
is Article 74 in the Coronavirus Chronology that provides real-time information
for historians, teachers, students, journalists, economists, market
participants, corporate executives, financial managers, Wall Street, doctors,
nurses, medical personnel, first responders, researchers, public officials,
news organizations, traders, investors and politicians studying the COVID-19
pandemic both domestically (USA) and internationally.
This seventy-fourth article is published on Saturday, 4/16/22.
The Coronavirus Chronology series of articles are the only real-time source of
information available continuously chronicling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic from
early 2020 into 2022; it is the China Virus Bible.
Readers live and breathe the pandemic, the worst in a century,
as it occurs in real-time, experiencing the daily virus zeitgeist, good or bad,
devoid of political correctness. This is not revisionist history-telling. It is
the raw pandemic truth and human emotion occurring, recorded and chronicled in
real time, without any allegiance to political parties or media sources. The
information is direct and unapologetic. A chronology can be written no other
way.
All 74 Coronavirus Chronology articles are archived on The
Keystone Speculator blog. The last couple articles are linked below if you want
to remain up to speed with the never-ending COVID-19 saga.
The Worldometer web site tracks coronavirus (COVID-19) around
the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus series of
articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. The
CDC COVID Data Tracker is another excellent source of information. The
Worldometer, Johns-Hopkins and CDC data track each other well with the
Worldometer data leading the others by a few days. The Worldometer data is far
superior for forecasting since it is updated more reliably in real-time.
The countries with rising active cases charts are
highlighted below with the worst nations at the bottom. The peaks in daily new
cases are shown and the projected peaks for active cases are based on the
Keystone Model. The peak and flattening of the active cases curves are
extremely important since it represents the maximum stress on healthcare
workers and the medical systems.
It will take longer for the active cases charts to roll over
to form the bell shape for the troubled nations at the bottom of the list since
they are still experiencing highs and peaks in their daily new cases.
Hospitalizations lag the daily cases by a week or two and deaths lag
hospitalizations by a week or two.
Iceland (Fifth Wave)
3/7/22 New Case Peak Date (highest
daily cases ever)
3/18/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (curve is flattening)
3/28/22 New Case Peak Date
4/8/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (curve continues higher)
4/1/22 New Case Peak Date
4/12/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (curve continues higher)
4/14/22 New Case Peak Date
4/25/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
4/14/22 New Case Peak Date
4/25/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/15/22 New Case Peak Date (big
spike higher)
5/13/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
4/15/22 New Case Peak Date (big
spike higher)
4/26/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/15/22 New Case Peak Date (big
spike higher)
4/26/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/15/22 New Case Peak Date
(highest daily cases for omicron wave)
4/26/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Nine nations are taken off the bad list including Italy, France, Germany, Malta, Ireland, Luxembourg, Greece, Australia and Thailand since their active cases charts are moving lower. South Korea, Slovenia and Cuba were taken off the list last time. Sadly, the United States and Japan are added to the bad list.
Mexico requires close monitoring the data has been choppy in
recent days. Israel cases are down but may be experiencing another hiccup.
Israel has the same problems as all other nations despite the population stuck
with vaccine needles like pincushions.
France and Italy report their biggest numbers of the week on
Tuesday’s so the Worldometer data early Wednesday morning will likely verify
further downside in daily cases continuing.
No wonder the world’s cases and deaths continue dropping.
The bad list becomes smaller. The countries in the covid pickle barrel right
now that are dealing with new outbreaks are China, Taiwan, Japan, Canada and
the good ole US of A. The never-ending pandemic is well, never-ending.
The next list shows the 13 most troubled US states. The peak
in daily new cases and projections for the peaks in active cases are provided
as per the Keystone Model. The flattening and roll over of the active cases
curve forming the bell shape indicates the virus is being defeated and the
caseload on healthcare workers will quickly improve but those dates all reside
in May. Wave 7 is underway for the states below.
Maine (Seventh
Wave)
4/13/22
New Case Peak Date
5/11/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date
4/14/22
New Case Peak Date
5/12/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date
4/14/22
New Case Peak Date
5/12/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date
4/15/22
New Case Peak Date
5/13/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date
4/15/22
New Case Peak Date
5/13/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date
4/15/22
New Case Peak Date
5/13/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date
4/15/22
New Case Peak Date
5/13/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date
4/15/22
New Case Peak Date
5/13/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date
4/15/22
New Case Peak Date
5/13/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date
4/15/22
New Case Peak Date
5/13/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date
4/15/22
New Case Peak Date
5/13/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date
4/15/22
New Case Peak Date
5/13/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date
4/15/22
New Case Peak Date
5/13/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Worldometer fixed
the problem and it cleaned-up the list. The high recovery percentage mentioned
above for the United States makes more sense now as it reflects these data
corrections. Never try to fool a mathematician; the truth is always in the
numbers.
Louisiana, Michigan,
Wisconsin, Nebraska, Idaho, Hawaii, Alabama, Washington State and Kentucky are
removed from the bad list since their active cases charts are now way down and pointing
lower. Unfortunately, the BA2 bug is biting the US now and these states may end
up back on the bad list next time.
There is nothing
like clean data. It is like washing your face with soap and water. Humorously,
in Keystone’s case, too bad ugly cannot be washed away. The tally for the United
States shows 13 states on the bad list above with daily and active cases moving
higher. These states will show hospital and clinic activity picking-up in the
days ahead. These states are in the BA2 little sister wave 7, like the overall
United States. These 13 states are the BA2 poster children that paint the
picture for what the other states should expect.
The following nine states
are going to be on the bad list any day forward. California reports over 7K
cases yesterday but it is a one-day spike. Also, watch Oregon, Washington
state, Louisiana, Michigan, Tennessee, Minnesota, Colorado and Connecticut, since
they are likely starting their BA2 subvariant waves right now in real-time; this
Easter weekend.
Texas is hanging in
there without a pop in daily cases as yet. Ditto Ohio, North Carolina, South
Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Indiana, Wisconsin, Missouri, Kentucky, Oklahoma,
Utah, Iowa, Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, Nebraska, Kansas, Nevada, New
Mexico, West Virginia, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Idaho, Wyoming, Hawaii
and Alaska. These 28 states are not yet impacted by the BA2 wave but they would
be wise to get prepared.
Adding the 13 states
on the bad list and another 9 destined there this week is 22 states that just
stepped in the BA2 dog sh*t. Seven waves. Oy vey. Maybe 7 is the magic number
and the once in a century will not last an actual century.
The key states to
watch are on the list above especially New York, New Jersey, Rhode Island,
Massachusetts, Illinois, Vermont, New Hampshire, Florida and Pennsylvania.
These states will tell you everything you need to know about the BA2 Omicron
Subvariant in the days and couple weeks ahead.
The world is
enjoying success in tamping back the China Flu. Worldwide daily new cases are
below 1 million down to 851K cases per day and deaths are down to 2.8K per day.
Europe is improving. Africa and South America are weathering the storm fine
without any appreciable uptick in cases. Asia recovers except for China and
Taiwan. Japan is experiencing a new wave and the XE variant may be the culprit.
Canada is battling a
new BA2 wave and some of those infections migrate south infecting the US
northeastern states. The BA212 and BA2121 mutants are sneaking into New York featherbeds.
The US is back on the country bad list above since wave 7 is underway.
Over 85% of the US
cases are BA2 or its mutants so the bug was already spreading domestically but
European travelers arriving at airports in New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts,
and big cities such as Chicago, Illinois, and Miami, Florida, are bringing covid
along for the ride likely accelerating the developing US outbreak.
Americans are
enjoying the Easter weekend BA2 be damned. Variants, schmariants. Keystone was
hoping for a holiday treat from Nurse Goodbody so he gave her a bunny costume from
the year-round Halloween store. She told him that it is not an appropriate gift
and he may end up with egg on his face for suggesting such things, but she
walked away taking the costume.
The tulips are in
bloom and life is good. If the Easter parties and family get-togethers are a
superspreader event, it will show-up in the US cases between 4/21/22 and
4/27/22 with the eighth day, 4/25/22, the sweet spot where a big pop in cases
would appear if, and only if, there are lots of infections after all the
hugging, kissing, singing, hand-shaking and double-dipping.
Note Added Saturday Afternoon: In Pittsburgh, Allegheny County, on the western side of Pennsylvania, Mayor Ed Gainey and county executive Rich Fitzgerald test positive for COVID-19. Both men are triple vaccinated and now that they are sick and isolated at home, they tell everyone else to get vaccinated. Huh? Gainey said he tested positive in December, then he said he was negative blaming a faulty test. Does he know which end of the swab to hold, or where it goes? Pittsburgh political offices are covid-infected nests. Cases are rising in Pennsylvania mainly because of an outbreak in Philadelphia but now Pittsburgh wants to play in the BA2 sandbox. Dirty money, dirty virus and dirty politics all go together.
Note Added Saturday Evening: In California, the huge Coachella Music Festival begins yesterday and runs for two 3-day weekends this one and next. Will it be labeled as a superspreader event? Billie Eilish is headlining tonight a top pop star leading the way for Generation Z. Masks are not required. Young folks will not be wearing any masks or social distancing as the boys try to put the moves on the girls while smoking marijuana-packed bowls (slang for pipes). Yes, that ought to go swimmingly. BA2 is in heaven at Coachella. California hospitals are likely already preparing for the sick partiers in about 4 to 10 days. BA2 may spread fast in America considering the spring weather is allowing folks to comingle more, the Easter weekend parties, Coachella this weekend and next, and spring breaks which may be part of the reason Florida cases are rising. Is this a recipe for COVID-19 disaster? The daily cases, hospital admissions and hospitalizations will tell the tale.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 4/17/22, at 5:00 AM EST: Happy Easter. Pope Francis celebrates mass at St Peter's Square. The world's daily new cases drop to 800K per day ready for a 7-handle. Worldwide deaths fall to 2.6K deaths per day. The globe is healing from COVID-19 except for China and Taiwan in the thick of their outbreaks. More than 2 dozen Chinese cities are in lockdowns. The horrific and disturbing screams from apartment buildings continue all night long in cities such as Shanghai. The human cries sound like people burning in Hell. Chinese folks are starving and need medicine. The CCP is feeling the heat as individuals question authority. Dirtbag Dictator Xi's henchmen are allowing some Chinese to venture out of their jail cell apartments into a courtyard or onto a sidewalk in front of their buildings but only if every single person in that community tests negative for the last 7 days. If one person shows a positive test, the entire community is sent back into their draconian jail cells for 14 more days. Shelves are bare in cities across China as folks hoard supplies fearing that the same draconian lockdown measures and isolation camps will occur in their region. What a mess. The Chinese folks deserve better than the dirtbag CCP. Once you hear the non-stop screams from starving and sick folks in their apartment buildings, it is difficult to get the sound out of your head. You pray for the Sound of Silence but the human suffering increases daily. China's infection rate is at over 26K cases per day and not retreating (the actual infection rate is probably about 4 or 5 times higher since the CCP are liars). The pandemic disrupts global supply chains exacerbating worldwide inflation. Russia's war against Ukraine is creating food shortages that will likely result in famine in parts of the world. Taiwan's China Flu outbreak is not abating with 1.4K daily new cases yesterday the most ever.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 4/17/22, at 5:30 AM EST: The US daily new cases play a cat and mouse game with the 7-day MA moving sideways at 32K to 36K cases per day for the last 5 days. The rubber meets the road this week when US cases will likely rise noticeably in part due to data catch-up after the holiday and Americans comingling on the Easter weekend. The US death rate is down to 331 deaths per day from China Flu. It is disgusting to not see the country do more for the unvaccinated folks especially educating them to seek immediate treatments and therapies if they catch COVID-19. Such is crony America and Biden's vaccine only strategy. Too many Americans are dying needlessly. New York reports 6.6K cases yesterday and the 7-day MA continues higher to 6.3K cases per day. New York State is leading the BA2 infection wave in the United States and its daily cases wave pattern will likely be repeated for all the other states. Hopefully, the new wave 7 will roll over quickly like wave 4. The week ahead will show if the daily cases want to go parabolic (vertical) for the Empire State. New Jersey, Massachusetts and other states highlighted above are also in play and will display how the US will react to the BA2 bug and its mutants BA212 and BA2121 that are spreading in New York. Going to Easter dinner today feels like attending the Last Supper. Maybe an Easter covid miracle will occur and conditions in China, Taiwan, Japan, Canada, the US, and a few other countries, will surprise to the good side in the coming days? Hope springs eternal especially in springtime. Keystone's stomach is churning and aching from a combination of chocolate, jelly beans, hard-boiled eggs and Peeps.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 4/17/22, at 9:30 AM EST: Dr Ashish Jha, the new Whitehouse COVID-19 response coordinator, appears on NBC (democrat-run media) on the Meet the Press Sunday morning political talk show. Jha is hawking the vaccines and booster (third shot) for everyone and, as per the CDC and FDA, a fourth shot (second booster; the booster-booster) for folks over 50 years old especially those with health problems. Jha says the CDC is taking the extra 15 days, through 5/3/22, for the mask mandate for public transportation, to assess the new rise in cases and if the mask mandate would continue beyond 5/3/22. Americans are already screaming bloody murder wanting mask mandates to end for public transportation but the Whitehouse sees the BA2 virus train coming down the tracks from the other direction. The CDC reports that 32 states are experiencing a rise in cases. The BA2 subvariant is more transmissible but not more deadly than prior strains. If the CDC Community Transmission map starts turning yellow and orange (red), it will be difficult to tell people to start wearing masks again. Splotches of yellow are forming across the US and chunks of orange appear in New York and northern Pennsylvania.
Note Added Sunday Afternoon, 4/17/22: Philadelphia business owners join hands suing the city over the reinstalled indoor mask mandate. Philly is the first major US city reinstating mask wearing in indoor spaces and already-struggling business owners are concerned that the new covid edict will chase customers away. Math-challenged commentators on MSNBC (democrat media) opine that the rise in US daily new cases is a misleading statistic because some states are testing more than others. America has become stupid over the last few decades. It is not the magnitude of cases that is the most important tool in assessing developing infection waves but instead the rate of change. It does not matter if a state is doing 5 times more testing than another, or 5 times less testing, the relative percent of infections (cases) will be consistent. The daily increase in cases, the rate of change, dictates if the new wave is underway and if it is going parabolic (vertical like Taiwan right now). People are stupid nowadays. Technology must have made them that way. In the 1970's, everyone was intelligent from the high school janitor to the town doctor. Not anymore. America's two favorite words uttered daily by millions, said in a slovenly sleepy stupid way, are, "huh?" and "what?" Daily new cases, hospital admissions and hospitalizations are the key to forecasting outbreaks and assessing infection waves and it is critical that the data is updated and charted as quickly as possible preferably with no more than a 24 to 36 hour lag time. MSNBC is telling you to buy the Marshall amp with the volume control that goes up to 11, instead of 10, because it can go louder, a la Spinal Tap.
Note Added Monday Morning, 4/18/22, at 5:00 AM EST: The world reports 762K daily new cases yesterday, a 7-handle on its way to a 6-handle. The worldwide death rate is down to 2.5K deaths per day. The world continues recovering from the COVID-19 menace sans China, Taiwan, Canada, Japan and the US. Shanghai reports 3 COVID-19 deaths but says the folks had preexisting conditions and were at or near 90 years old. With respect to the three that died, the CCP is lying as usual. The deaths have to be far higher as are the infections. Communists lie. The Tesla facility in lockdown in China plans to reopen but in a closed loop environment handing out sleeping bags and mattresses to the worker drones. Sure, Elon Musk cares about people's rights. That's laughable. Musk cares about money, notoriety and having his narcissistic ego stroked. China (CCP) will screw Tesla after they have all the technology and robotics duplicated for its auto plants. China reports nearly 4K daily new cases yesterday the most of the current wave hitting the commie nation over the last 7 weeks. The CCP separates case types so they can play numbers games. That is 4K symptomatic cases but over 20K more cases are asymptomatic. It is likely that China's symptomatic cases are probably 15K to 20K per day and the asymptomatic cases between 70K and 100K per day and obviously, deaths are simply not being reported, but the only numbers available are the CCP's lies. Taiwan and Japan remain in trouble with rising cases. South Korea continues improving so the government is lifting most of the COVID-19 restrictions. Indonesia Health Minister Budi Gunadi Sadikin says 87% of Indonesians have antibodies against COVID-19 but interestingly, only one-half of the population is vaccinated. 74% of the unvaccinated folks have antibody protection compared to 99% of the vaccinated. Canada is struggling to contain its outbreak with the peak in cases at over 19K for the current wave last Thursday. This Thursday's daily cases, 4/21/22, will dictate if Canada is turning the corner and gaining control of BA2 and its derivatives (cases must be below 19K).
Note Added Monday Morning, 4/18/22, at 6:00 AM EST: The US reports only 13K daily new cases for Sunday but that would be expected to be a low number. Saturday was 40K cases and Friday is at 44K cases so the trend down is great, but it is the weekend and a holiday weekend. This week's data tells the tale for America. There will be some catch-up in the data due to the holiday which is a win for the negative side. The 7-day MA bumps along at 31K cases per day not yet jutting wildly higher which is a good thing. All the prior waves show daily cases taking off higher at a faster rate than the current wave 7. Wave 4 is the most similar and that wave, right when it was about to start running strongly higher, and a dire warning was issued by CDC Director Walensky, bloop, the cases rolled over lower and wave 4 was toast leading into the great summer period last year before delta wave 5 hit. It would be fantastic to see the same fractal play out now with daily new cases blustering, but in a week or two, will fall off lower. New York is the BA2 poster boy so that is the first state to look at each day. New York reports 4.7K daily new cases yesterday and the 7-day MA is at 6.2K cases per day for 2 days running. This is good because moving sideways is better than up and far better than parabolic. It was the holiday weekend, however, so like the US as a whole, the rubber meets the road this week in New York which will dictate the path for other states. The United States will show its BA2 cards by mid-week. The daily new cases and hospital data tell the story. Wave 7 is underway for America with the hope that it is a wave 4 redux.
Note Added Monday Afternoon, 4/18/22: US district (federal) Judge Kathryn Kimball Mizelle strikes down the mask mandate for US public transportation. The 15-day extension of the mask mandate to 5/3/22 was unlawful since it should have allowed public input prior to the decision. The 59-page ruling says the mask mandate is beyond the Whitehouse and CDC's authority even though it is good-intentioned. It is big news. Americans complain non-stop about wearing masks on airplanes. The Whitehouse spokesperson Psaki says the DOJ may appeal the court ruling. Psaki says the Whitehouse position remains the same and that everyone on public transportation should wear masks. That is the wrong answer, lady. The CDC says folks should continue wearing masks on airplanes, busses, trains, taxi's and subways. Another wrong answer.
Note Added Monday Evening, 4/18/22, at 7:45 PM EST: The story changes a few hours later. The CDC says the mask mandate is no longer in effect for public transportation. The CDC changes its mind as public opinion welcomes the federal court ruling. Delta Airlines, United Airlines and Alaska Airlines end their mask policy for travelers. Delta says COVID-19 has transitioned into a seasonal flu. Americans toss their masks into the air, like Mary Tyler Moore flinging her beret, as the BA2 Omicron Subvariant wave 7 begins. Will the ruling that ditches masks on public transportation create more BA2 infections? Psaki, the Whitehouse and democrat spokesperson and chief narrative weaver, will have to flip-flop and say masks are not required on public transportation. Quadruple vaccinated US Army Chief of Staff General James McConville tests positive for COVID-19. A lot of good 4 shots did him. McConville is recovering at home with mild symptoms. The funny knock on flu shots over the last few decades is "get the shot, get the flu." Now folks can say, "get the shots, get covid."
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 4/19/22, at 4:00 AM EST: The world reports daily new cases down to 729K per day continuing lower. The global COVID-19 death rate drops to 2.4K deaths per day continuing lower. Great news except for the ongoing trouble spots. Shanghai, China, reports over 20K daily new cases remaining consistently above this level for the last couple weeks (cases are far higher since the CCP lies). 7 more deaths are reported in Shanghai all elderly between 60 years old and 100. The filthy commie leadership is trying to paint the picture that age and other ailments led to their demise rather than placing all the blame on China Virus. New estimates on China's outbreak call out 45 cities in some type of lockdown situation impacting nearly 400 million Chinese folks about 30% of the 1.4 billion population. Global supply chains are constrained due to the reduced capacity of goods moving through ports. Taiwan reports 1.5K coronavirus cases yesterday another new all-time record. Taiwan officials are concerned that the outbreak will spiral out of control. Japan's trouble continues at about 50K cases per day. About 50 Japanese continue dying daily from COVID-19; another nation culling the elderly population. The total China Flu death toll in Japan exceeds the 29K deaths grim milestone. Over 220 South Koreans continue dying from COVID-19 daily. Thailand improves with the daily case count but 124 deaths are occurring per day the worst rate for the current BA2 wave. Canada shows improvements with daily cases counts at about 8.5K cases per day, however, the big number to watch is Thursday to see how it compares to the peak for the BA2 wave at 19.2K cases from last Thursday. It will be great to see Canada recover since it will hint that the BA2 wave will be manageable for the United States.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 4/19/22, at 5:00 AM EST: The US reports 25K daily new cases for Monday a happy surprise. There should be data catch-up due to the holiday but it is not there as yet. The low number is encouraging but the story is not told until we see the rest of the case numbers this week. Tomorrow will tell a lot about the BA2 wave 7 since the data catch-up should appear in the case number. The 7-day MA for US daily new cases is at 35K cases per day. This week is decision time for the new wave 7. Will the cases peter out like wave 4 or will the cases start running strongly higher confirming a more substantial little sister BA2 wave? New York reports 6.9K daily new cases and the 7-day MA is up to 6.3K cases per day; not good going into a week that will likely see higher case numbers. New Jersey is over 2K cases per day continuing higher. Illinois is up to 2.2K cases per day and rising. Ditto Rhode Island up to 339 cases per day and rising. Ditto Pennsylvania up to 1.2K cases per day. Ditto Florida up to 2.5K cases per day. Ditto Vermont and New Hampshire both at over 260 cases per day and heading higher. Cases are rising in a couple dozen states and a clearer picture will be provided by the weekend. 309 Americans are dying per day from China Flu with a 2-handle on tap this week. If the BA2 wave 7 can cooperate and the daily cases roll over into nothingness, the US will have a bright and fun summer ahead. It all rides on this week's case numbers. Hospital admissions are flatlining for the US but clearly higher for New York. COVID-19 hospitalizations in the US are flatlining at 9K to 10K patients. New York hospitalizations rise to about 1K but interestingly are not taking off higher but instead bumping sideways for a couple days. This may be holiday-related and as usual the CDC data is slow to update always several days behind but nonetheless the situation hints at a better outcome for wave 7. Fingers are crossed that BA2 is a pig in a poke.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 4/19/22, at 6:00 AM EST: There is confusion at public transportation terminals since people do not know the exact rules about masks. Masks are no longer required but some folks are tentative at displaying their naked jaws again, as if they are public exhibitionists. Anyone can wear a mask if they choose; do whatever floats your boat. The federal court ruling striking down the mask mandate on airplanes, busses, trains, subways and taxi's will surely receive plenty of media attention today. Dropping the mask mandate will be well-received by the public although the timing is unfortunate with Uncle BA2 knocking at the back door, with a suitcase full of infections, wanting to stay a few weeks.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 4/19/22, at 6:30 AM EST: Johnson & Johnson is ending sales guidance on its COVID-19 vaccine that no one wants. J&J, called Johnny John by stock traders, provided a conventional vaccine instead of the new mRNA technology but the efficacy is subpar. JNJ stock drops more than -3% in the pre-market adding to yesterday's -1.3% loss (the insiders always exit ahead of time and let the sucka's hold the bag in the faux free market crony capitalism system). Remember, during the first year of the pandemic it was stated that vaccines would take a few years to develop. Even Dr Fauci was skeptical at how fast the vaccines would be available. They should not have been. The mRNA had a good shot of working out quickly, which it did. Former President Trump deserves some credit for Operation Warp Speed, however, to this day, with the pandemic in its third year, a conventional vaccine has not been developed for treating COVID-19, just as was predicted. The mRNA multiple shot series was available within a year of development but to this day an efficient conventional-style vaccine remains elusive. The 257 million Americans that have received at least one jab of mRNA serve as a vast sample size to be studied over the next few years to see what impact the serum may have on the human body. The good news is that most adverse side effects from vaccines, such as the blood-clotting and myocarditis, occur within the first 6 months of the widescale distribution of a vaccine. The mRNA vaccines have been in public use since December 2020 so 16 months running. It is likely that most of the adverse side effects from the mRNA vaccines are known by now but this conclusion cannot be cast in concrete until a few more years pass.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 4/19/22, at 6:30 AM EST: In New York City (democrat-controlled city), the mask mandate remains in place for the subway and busses. NYC terminals require masks in NYC but airplanes do not; that will confuse people. In Pittsburgh, the Port Authority lifts the mask mandates for busses. In Washington, DC, masks are deemed optional on trains. Uber says masks are no longer required for drivers or passengers. Airline stocks rally +2% across the board after the mask mandate on public transportation is lifted. A flight attendant sings the lyrics, "Throw away your mask," as he tells passengers to toss their masks, if they want, into his outstretched Walmart shopping bag as he strolls down the aisle. Airline passengers are joyous. Flight attendants are happy because most of the social unrest and fights onboard airplanes have started because of mask rules. The Whitehouse and medical officials are unhappy that the change in the mandate comes from a judge and not the CDC. The mask mandate was set to expire mid-March but the CDC and Whitehouse punted it to 4/18/22 and then last week punted another 15 days to 5/3/22. These are people that cannot make a decision so the judge made it for them. Instead of heroes, the medical people and Biden gang look like zeroes. Former President Obama, and Biden, are known for their patented strategy of leading from behind. The democrat news outlets, that support the democrat narrative, are unhappy with the mask decision with a correspondent saying half of the people he talked to at the airport terminal are happy the masks are gone but the other half are not. It's made-up news garbage. Did the jackass ask 2 people? From actual smartphone videos, social media activity and other news broadcasts, it is probably 80-20 or 90-10 in favor of ditching the masks, if not 95-5, not the 50-50 touted by democrat media making up stories that can help maintain control. America is moving on from the pandemic the Whitehouse, CDC and BA2 subvariant be damned.
Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 4/19/22: The CDC removes all countries from the 'do not travel' list although some nations remain at lower warning levels. If the CDC relaxes travel restrictions, the DOJ is likely to not challenge the court decision throwing out the mask mandate for public transportation. The Whitehouse blusters that the mask mandate ruling may be appealed but it is likely just for show to try and appease the radical progressive leftists that generally want mask mandates to continue (the Biden administration, that needs the progressive votes, wants to appear fighting hard for them even though the writing is on the wall and Americans are done with masks). Delta Airlines creates a stir when it said that 'COVID-19 is now a seasonal flu'. Whitehouse officials and medical punditry push back at the airline so Delta buckles to power and says it misspoke and the pandemic is actually a 'manageable respiratory virus'. Ride-sharing outfit Lyft jumps on the Uber bandwagon ditching masks for drivers and passengers. Like the airlines, to stay competitive, businesses have to ditch masks to keep up with rival companies that are dropping the mask rules.
Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 4/19/22: The CDC announces a new data center with improved analytics and forecasting capabilities. The new CDC department is dubbed the Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics. Try to fit that on a business card or envelope. A CDC Einstein must have been up all night dreaming up that egghead title that is not even a good acronym; CFOA. The new center is labeled as the National Weather Service for infectious diseases. In other words, like weather people, the predictions will be often wrong but the following day is another day of never admitting errors and forging ahead with new predictions. If you want to kick off a new department that will be known for its analytics, why would it be attached to voodoo weather people? It is a step in the right direction but there are a lot of promises without concrete substance. The CDC claims it gives government leaders weeks of advanced warning time when the different surges are occurring. No they don't. It is a stupid statement since none of the pandemic analytics have enabled the prediction of a wave several weeks in advance. The CDC should tell everyone what metrics they used for these magical forecasts that they conveniently never shared with the public. Keystone is intimate with all 6, now 7 US outbreak waves. The number one goal for the CDC should be to improve the real-time data collection, analysis and charting, otherwise, everything else is garbage. And use the KISS principle; Keep It Simple, Stupid. The CDC should contact the Worldometer folks since they can likely provide insight on how they gather different data feeds. Whitehouse COVID-19 coordinator Dr Jha says the center is a great asset for the current outbreak and future pandemics. The acronym CFA is bandied about for the new center so the 'Outbreak' word is left out to dry. The should have called it the 'data center' and the acronym would be the cool palindrome 'CDCDC'. The new department receives $200 million in COVID-19 funding from the American Rescue Plan. The CDC would be wise to consult with technical analysts on Wall Street since they, like Keystone, can explain the use of chart metrics and patterns in forecasting pandemics. Think of it as the birth of technical analysis for virology and epidemiology. Unfortunately, the eggheads at the CDC likely do not have vision and common nuts and bolts perspective to produce simple data and charting metrics. It is not a knock on them. It is simply not their area of expertise. The moving averages are key for forecasting and the 3-day and 7-day have earned a solid place in pandemic technical analysis. Some of the outbreak waves are fast only 8 weeks so the smaller moving averages have to be used since longer duration MA's such as a 20-day or 50-day will not be of much use. Besides updating the data feeds to real-time, say no more than a 36-hour lag time, the second task would be identifying the metrics that constitute a new wave. Of course the focus is on daily new cases since this is the first metric that displays the outbreak (forget the wastewater folly). It is not as easy as one would think in setting up universal rules that will hold true for years to come. Perhaps a new wave would be in play if X days pass where the 7-day MA rises each day? Or it could be when a shorter duration moving average crosses above a longer duration moving average. There are many possibilities. Humorously, talking heads, including Fauci, do not refer to the outbreak waves by numbers anymore because no one has a basis to decide what is a wave and what is not. Waves 1, 2 and 3 were easy but then some folks did not want to call wave 4 a wave, so the delta wave 5 was wave 4 and obviously, more confusion follows. Fortunately, Keystone called out all the waves, 7 in all, so those numbers and moving averages can be studied to develop a rule for calling a wave a wave which should be at the top of the 'to do' list. All the moving averages should be calculated for all the daily new cases for the entire 2 years and then each smoothing line, especially the 3-day and 7-day, since there is a lot of data available on them already, and prime numbers such as the 17-day MA, 23-day MA and so forth, can be studied to see if they are of use with forecasting (noting when other MA's cross and when the daily case numbers cross MA's). Welcome to the wild world of data analysis; it is an Asperger's paradise. If the folks at the CDC get good at technical analysis, they will quit their jobs, and the medical profession, and become Wall Street big shots telling investors when to buy and sell. Good luck to the CDC and their new data center endeavors.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 4/20/22, at 6:00 AM EST: The world reports 692K daily new cases yesterday a 6-handle and rooting for a 5-handle next. On a planet of 7,670,000,000 people, 692,857 folks are infected with COVID-19 yesterday; 1 in every 11,070 earthlings. 2.4K people die from China Flu worldwide yesterday; 1 in every 3.2 million earthlings. If you ask people on the street how many folks are dying from covid on Earth each day, some may say a million per day. Others may say 100's of thousands mainly due to a lot of media fear-mongering. In reality, only a couple thousand people are dying from covid each day around the world. Of course, that is a couple thousand families changed forever but many of you reading this probably thought there were a lot more deaths than that occurring each day on this vast global sphere.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 4/20/22, at 6:30 AM EST: China's troubles continue with over 3K symptomatic and over 20K asymptomatic cases occurring each day. Shanghai remains a mess. The CCP says the covid restrictions are relaxed for 4 to 6 million Shanghai residents but being able to walk in the courtyard is nothing to write home about. The gates to communities and housing complexes remain padlocked. At least two-thirds of the over 25 million people living in and around greater Shanghai remain in lockdown. Taiwan reports 1.7K daily new cases another all-time record; not good. You never know how far up a parabolic spike will travel (vertically). The US should ask Taiwan if they need any help, or PPE or other needs. How about vaccines? Americans have had their share of vaccines so ship the drugs over to the Taiwanese folks so they can vaccinate more folks. Canada's cases remain elevated. Japan's cases remain elevated with a big test coming in tomorrow's daily cases data. Generally, the world looks good sans for the nations mentioned and the USA. No wonder the world's daily new cases continue trailing lower. Perhaps BA2 is running out of host bodies.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 4/20/22, at 7:00 AM EST: The US crosses the 1.016 million deaths grim milestone. The US reports 33K daily new cases for yesterday and the 7-day MA is at 35K cases per day. It is interesting to not see the cases take off higher as yet. The 33K cases likely contain any holiday catch-up cases so the outlook for the US is not as bad as feared, so far. The poster boy will shed light on the matter. New York reports 5.4K daily new cases with the 7-day MA at 6.4K cases per day moving sideways which is better than up. New York and other states are in undisputed new waves, however, if the case numbers can hang in there for today, tomorrow and Friday, at current levels, and then limp into the weekend which will be lower numbers, the BA2 Omicron Subvariant wave 7 may be a very short little sister pattern. The CDC Community Transmission map is showing more blotches of yellow the very definition of community spread. Officials in the yellow counties should be educating the public that higher infections rates are occurring and they are offering help and guidance. The northeast states are yellow and orange (red). The red in upper state New York is the nasty BA2 and its derivatives BA212 and BA2121 like Larry and his brother Darryl and his other brother Darryl.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 4/20/22, at 11:00 AM EST: Moderna is developing a combination vaccine for the Fall that will handle coronavirus and specifically target omicron. And silly you wondered if a fifth shot, the booster-booster-booster, would be required. Of course it will and probably a sixth, seventh and eighth, and probably when a new Greek letter outbreak begins. Big Pharma executives are driven around town in Rolls Royce's while they fight the last virus war. Novavax says it has a vaccine that combines a flu shot and covid shot and trials are beginning. New York City democrat Mayor Adams is videotaped partying maskless. Of course he is. Adams preaches to others to wear masks during his press conferences. It is more sickening hypocrisy from another two-bit leader. You are witnessing the final throes of the crony capitalism system collapsing under its own corrupt weight. Adams views himself as royalty not having to follow the covid rules he shoves down common American's throats. Rules for thee, not for me. Do as I say, not as I do. Social unrest increases in America the land of the have's and have not's.
Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 4/20/22: The Department of Justice, which performs the bidding of the current president in America's crony capitalism system, decides to appeal the ruling striking down mask mandates on public transportation. It makes you wonder what is going through Biden's mind when clearly the country wants to move on from the pandemic. The Biden administration wants to maintain control of the population. After Judge Kathryn Kimball Mizelle ruled against the mask mandate in the Health Freedom Defense Fund lawsuit against Biden, the DOJ said it would not pursue an appeal unless the CDC said it was necessary due to concerns over public health. The CDC wants to maintain the mask mandate on Americans so the DOJ files an appeal creating a bigger mess. The DOJ likely did not want the case since it will likely lose. If you want to wear a mask, wear one, wear 5 masks if you feel comfortable, but do not force others to wear a mask. The science and mask studies simply do not support the mask edicts. At best, there is a minor benefit at reducing infections with masks, extremely minor, and the adverse effects such as kids falling behind in educational and social development, and the mental and emotional problems, outweigh the benefits. Unelected bureaucrats at the CDC have too much power and authority over Americans but Biden (democrat party) is fighting to maintain the control. Whitehouse spokesperson Psaki says the mask ruling needs to remain in place to "preserve authority." The DOJ will likely lose the appeal and Biden will receive more egg on his face. Sadly, the Whitehouse is likely hoping the BA2 outbreak increases so they can say 'I told you so' and force masks on everyone again. The filthy democrat and republican corruption is sickening to watch and chronicle each day. America is lost.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 4/21/22, at 4:00 AM EST: The world crosses above 507 million total COVID-19 infections. The world reports over 905K daily new cases yesterday above the 7-day MA that continues falling down to 681K cases per day. France is turning the corner consistently reporting lower cases and both the daily new and active cases charts have rolled-over and heading lower. 227 French die from China Flu yesterday the most since February. Oh no. The impact of Pope Francis's Palm Sunday and Easter Sunday masses in Rome at St Peter's Square, attended by 100's of thousands of faithful, is in focus with Italy reporting nearly 100K daily new infections the most since early February; terrible news. No wonder the world's daily cases spiked a touch higher. 11% of the COVID-19 cases in the world are occurring in Italy. 205 Italians die from China Virus yesterday the most in 7 weeks. At least they are near Rome, as they make their way home, as Joan sings. Germany reports 187K daily new cases the most in 2 weeks. 361 Germans die from covid yesterday the third highest daily death number since January. Germany is improving but the 187K cases is an unwelcome sight. Infections must be bumping higher after the long Easter weekend fun. Brazil reports 33K daily new cases the most in a month; not good. India is remains in great shape but officials are concerned that cases jump by 2.3K and 56 deaths occur over the last day. Masks are mandated for Delhi again. India is not in any covid trouble currently but they are cautious making sure a new outbreak wave does not occur. Japan may have peaked with its daily and active cases charts which would be great news defeating the one-month wave. Australia continues recovering from its current wave. Prime Minister candidate Anthony Albanese tests positive for COVID-19. Incumbent PM Morrison had covid last month. Humans view someone ill as weak so Morrison has an advantage. King Donnie Trump bragged about how he was the finest human specimen on the planet only to come near death at the hands of COVID-19 just before the November 2020 presidential election; the doofus lost. China continues logging over 3K daily new symptomatic cases per day and there are 31K active cases the most since the pandemic began in March 2020. China Virus returns to the land from which it was spawned. Chinese hospitals, clinics and concentration camps, er isolation facilities, will only become busier in the days forward. The global community questions China's data since the deaths are not being reported. They should since the numbers are likely 4 or 5 times higher across the board. Communists lie. Dictator Xi is a murdering lying dirtbag. Guatemala and Costa Rica show small bumps higher in cases which will require monitoring. The world remains on the mend but several nations report small bumps higher in cases. Perhaps it is due to the holiday weekend and spring weather over the last month where people are comingling more after the winter (in the northern hemisphere). The holidays disrupt the data feeds so the tiny bump in cases occurring with several nations may only be a data reporting anomaly. Boom. Taiwan reports 2.5K daily new cases another record high. Taiwan reports 17K active cases and both the daily and active cases charts are parabolic (vertical). Taiwan's active cases are over twice as high as the peak for the pandemic last June so hospitals, clinics and the healthcare workers will be swamped over the next month or two. The United States needs to help our friends in Taiwan, a great nation, in every way possible.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 4/21/22, at 5:00 AM EST: The US exceeds 1.017 million deaths from China Virus. The CDC, Johns-Hopkins and IHME, continue putting off the 1 million American deaths grim milestone as long as they can. Get with the program dudes. This is why millions of Americans no longer trust what they are told; they know most of the news they are fed daily is lies. This does not lead to good outcomes. The US reports 46.6K daily new cases an elevated number but perhaps it is due to the Easter festivities, springtime and data catch-up. On the good side, the peak for the current wave 7, that remains a youngster, is 48.3K cases last Thursday and 47.4K cases on Friday. It is great that Friday's number was below Thursday but it was Good Friday and the data may have been skewed lower. It is good news that yesterday's cases are below the two peak days last week, however, their comparable days are today and tomorrow, and Friday is typically the highest data day. The next 2 days of daily new cases will dictate if wave 7 is about to take off higher, or, if wave 7 may be like wave 4 and not a big deal. 408 Americans die yesterday from covid with the 7-day MA down to 302 deaths per day a hair away from the 200's. 302 deaths means there are only 6 COVID-19 deaths occurring per state per day on average. Of course larger states, or states on the East Coast, may be getting hit with a few more than 6 deaths per day while some states have zero covid deaths per day. New York reports 7.3K daily new cases so the average infections remain elevated at 6.5K cases per day statewide. New York City maintains mask mandates for some public transportation venues due to the rising cases and new BA2 Omicron Subvariant wave underway. Damn. Illinois reports 3.9K daily new cases the most for the new BA2 wave and not seen since February. That must be a lot of travelers transmitting infections in Chicago. The CDC Community Transmission map shows Champaign County in central Illinois as a yellow medium zone with increasing infection levels. The residents are not drinking champagne after hearing the news. The community transmission map loses its luster because the CDC data is always several days if not a week behind. The orange (red) areas of high infection in New York are spreading. New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Illinois, Vermont, Alaska and a few others serve as the poster children for the BA2 wave now hitting the United States. The ruling knocking down mask wearing on public transportation, now under appeal by the DOJ that performs the bidding of the Whitehouse and CDC, occurs as BA2, BA212 and BA2121 flex their muscles. The rubber meets the road for the USA and wave 7 today and tomorrow. As explained above, the 47K-48K daily cases level is the line in the sand that dictates joy ahead and a wave 7 that does not have much punch if the cases the next 2 days are below 47K, or, forecasts misery ahead and a daily cases wave 7 that will likely go vertical if the Thursday and Friday cases are both over 50K cases. Get your popcorn ready since the covid path ahead for the US will be known by Saturday morning. US hospital admissions rise but it is mainly the elderly folks over 70 years old. New York admissions continue rising (use the dropdown menu). New York hospitalizations continue higher. Admissions lead hospitalizations by 3 or 4 days so the New York hospitalizations will continue higher for the coming days.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 4/21/22, at 6:00 AM EST: Pfizer says the vaccine for kids under 5 years old should be ready by June. The little ones are pumped with three shots over a couple month's to get to the adequate protection level (as per the scientists). COVID-19 is not a great danger to children. The number of deaths for young folks under 18 years old are negligible and the deaths that occurred were in kids that had other comorbidities including childhood obesity. Parents, the best thing you can do for your kids is of course love them and spend time with them, but the second best thing is teaching good eating habits especially to chubby kids. Kids learn by example and should be eating a salad at every dinner. Give them a gift that will last their entire lives.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 4/21/22, at 8:00 AM EST: An AP (democrat media) poll says 56% of Americans favor wearing masks on public transportation and 44% oppose masks or say it should be the person's choice. You knew the poll would skew democrat. Do you believe that if you asked 10 people if they wanted to wear a mask, that 6 would enthusiastically say yes? If so, Keystone has some swamp land in Florida he would like to sell you. Anecdotal evidence on airplanes is that about 80% to 85% of the folks are not wearing masks. The other 15% or 20% may have health conditions or simply want to wear masks which is great. Nobody is making fun of anyone for wearing a mask. The democrat media tries to frame the mask controversy as the US courts forcing people to not wear masks. It is stupid but it is America these days. No one is saying that except for the elitists that run the democrat party. People want the choice of wearing a mask or not, and the majority, if not all, of Americans would wear a mask if sitting next to an immunocompromised person that had to travel. As often explained, if an article, poll or news story is from the AP, New York Times, Washington Post (Jeff Bezos), Politico, CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, NBC, PBS or NPR, it is going to tout the democrat narrative. Neutral news does not exist in the USA except for the Coronavirus Chronology of course. If an article, poll or news story is from Breitbart News, New York Post, The Daily Caller, Fox News, Newsmax, OANN or AM talk radio, it is going to tout the republican narrative. This is crony America and its sickening biased tribal media.
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 4/21/22: The CDC bigwigs meet for a few hours discussing the vaccine strategy going forward. The panel is in general agreement that the multiple booster shots every few months, that only provide marginal additional protection, may not be the proper strategy. Three shots, the two initial shots and the booster, provide good protection against severe illness and death which should be the goal. The fourth shot, the booster-booster, is available to folks over 50 years old and the immunocompromised. Some older folks that originally received the J&J shot are up to five shots. The CDC has to settle on a Fall strategy for coronavirus over the next couple months so a proper vaccine can be prepared. The CDC finally owns up to the fact that the multiple shots help prevent serious illness and death but vaccinated folks will still become infected and transmit the disease. Vaccinated jet set parents, thinking they are shielded from COVID-19, and wanting to return to their hobnobbing life, bring the virus home infecting their kids and blame it on unvaccinated people. The jabs are not a vaccine. The CDC and NIH modified the definition of a vaccine when the COVID-19 mRNA serums were under development. The inoculations should be called 'COVID-19 death prevention shots' instead of vaccines. And where is the conventional COVID-19 vaccine? J&J was supposed to be but that fell by the wayside. The pandemic is in its third year with no sign of a conventional covid vaccine with worthwhile efficacy. A substantive number of unvaccinated people would probably take a non-mRNA vaccine. The CDC should do a study group to see if this is true and if so, chop, chop, develop a non-mRNA covid vaccine.
Note Added Thursday Evening, 4/21/22: Philadelphia Mayor Jim Kenney flip-flops reversing his decision to reinstate masks indoors. Kenney likely expected other democrat mayors to follow his lead but instead Americans are moving on from COVID-19 tossing masks in the trash can. Los Angeles County is requiring masks for public transportation including airport and bus terminals. Californians complain of whiplash one day masks the next day no masks then masks again. Do the Hokey Pokey and turn yourself around. No wonder Americans have lost confidence in government; leaders are clueless.
Note Added Friday Morning, 4/22/22, at 5:00 AM EST: The world's COVID-19 infections drop to 665K per day continuing lower as per the 7-day MA but cases are above the moving average the last 2 days (very preliminary indication that a more gradual path lower in cases may begin introducing a sideways bias to the trend lower). Worldwide deaths continue lower to 2.4K deaths per day. Canada reports nearly 20K cases yesterday another record high for the current wave. Canada was gaining on the virus with the 7-day MA for daily new cases rolling-over but the cases are spiking higher again in recent days. This is not a good harbinger for the US. Taiwan reports 3.1K daily new cases another record high as the parabolic phase continues. China continues struggling at containing the virus as Dictator Xi touts the zero-covid strategy. China's economy is slowing due to the lockdowns. Global supply chains are snarled leading to more inflation.
Note Added Friday Morning, 4/22/22, at 6:00 AM EST: The US reports 45.2K daily new cases an elevated number but great news that it is not above the 47K-48K line in the sand mentioned yesterday. The Friday data is typically the highest of the week so the future of US wave 7 is riding on today's cases. Any rise in infections due to Easter weekend festivities will show-up in the days ahead. The US reports 310 deaths per day with the trend lower continuing. New York reports 7.0K cases yesterday another punch to the face but the peak thus far for the current wave is 8.1K cases on 4/14/22 exactly one week ago. It is important and hopeful that the 7.0K cases this week are below the 8.1K cases last Thursday which is the peak for the current BA2 wave thus far (if the wave was taking off wildly higher, the cases would be well over 8.1K to 9K, 10K and higher). New York's 7-day MA is bumping along sideways at 6.4K cases per day. The wave is going to expand higher if the daily cases exceed the 7-day MA. Thwack. New Jersey is slapped with 2.8K daily new cases the most for the current BA2 wave and the 7-day MA is at 2K cases per day. Boom. Illinois reports 3.6K daily new cases the most for the new BA2 wave running higher. Ditto Vermont at 346 cases (small numbers). Massachusetts cases are favoring a sideways posture. The Friday data is key and the US will not be happy if today's cases countrywide are above 50K.
Note Added Friday Afternoon, 4/22/22: The US stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, mini-crashes -3% today. The CDC says 384K Americans died from COVID-19 in 2020 and 415K in 2021 a 20% increase, or 45K more deaths. The math does not add up with these numbers. Going from 384K to 415K is only 31K more deaths not 45K. The 31K is only an 8% increase in deaths year on year. Even the 45K increase is only a 12% increase in deaths year to year. Maybe the CDC is using new math? Worldometer data is 371K American deaths in 2020, 479K deaths in 2021 and 168K deaths thus far in 2022 for a total of 1,018,154 US citizens dead from China Virus. The increase in deaths from 2021 to 2022 is 108K deaths for an increase of 29% not 20%. Biden and the CDC are likely trying to water-down the higher deaths under Sleepy Joe's watch in 2021 as compared to King Donnie in 2020. To compare the presidencies, January 20 has to be the demarcation line because that is when power changes hands in the US. King Donnie Trump, the orange-headed bloviating carnival barker, logs 436K dead American bodies on his watch through 1/20/21. Sleepy Joe Biden, the confused and sometimes incoherent Alzheimer's patient, logs 414K deaths during the 11 months and 1 week of 2021. Bingo. This is how the CDC got their 415K number. It's deceitful. Keeping the comparison year on year, 2020 to 2021, but using the 1/20/21 date to separate Trump and Biden, 436K are dead under Trump and 414K dead under Biden ending 2021. As the Coronavirus Chronology highlighted in January, Biden deaths now surpass Trump deaths. Up to the present day, 436K Americans are dead from China Flu under Trump and 582K are dead from the Wuhan Virus under Biden a 33% increase in deaths or 146K more deaths on Biden's watch. It is a once in a century pandemic so lots of people are going to croak. Heart disease killed 693K people in 2021 and cancer took 604K lives. This compares to the 384K deaths from COVID-19 in 2020 and the 479K deaths in 2021. China Virus is the third largest cause of death in America in 2021. The CDC says over 988K Americans are dead from covid. Johns-Hopkins reports 991K US deaths. The IHME is at 986K deaths and does not predict the 1 million deaths number by August. Huh? The CDC admits that about 400 Americans are dying per day, if so, why is their total death count climbing at a snail's pace? The Biden administration is avoiding the grim 1 million deaths milestone like a dentist appointment. It is obvious to see who lies in bed with Sleepy Joe. Worldometer is over 1.018 million deaths from COVID-19. Above is a detailed description of fuzzy math and the crony capitalism system that is on its last legs. The CDC says it is 20 times more likely that an unvaccinated person will die of COVID-19 than a vaccinated person. In their zeal to encourage and persuade people to take the mRNA shots, Biden and the CDC prove their incompetence. A few months ago, the CDC said it was 10 times more likely that an unvaccinated person will die. The unvaccinated deaths are worse over time directly due to Biden's failure at supplying monoclonal antibody and other treatments and therapies. For gosh sakes, the bozo's ran out of mAb treatments in December as the omicron wave worsened; no wonder the numbers are worse for the unvaccinated Americans. Sleepy Joe pursues the vaccine only strategy and lets the unvaccinated folks hang out to dry. It is humorous that Biden and the CDC tout the horrible statistic with unvaccinated folks for the purpose of cajoling people into taking the jabs, but at the same time they are proving their failure at preventing US deaths. The jackasses need to make the treatments and therapies for unvaccinated people more available and educate them on what to do if they become sick.
Note Added Friday Evening, 4/22/22: Between 70 and 100 New York City Department of Education employees are identified as submitting fake covid vaccination cards to their managers. The workers are placed on unpaid leave as the investigation continues. The vaccine mandates did nothing but destroy people's lives encouraging honest people to be dishonest.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 4/23/22, at 5:00 AM EST: Passover ends at sundown today for the Jewish folks. The Friday numbers are important for the United States and the results are disappointing. Revisions higher to the cases are occurring which hints that the US wave 7 is starting to gather momentum. The US reports 54.1K cases yesterday. Last Friday, 4/15/22, the cases are revised a higher to 50.9K cases. Thus, Friday to Friday, cases are rising in the United States; not good. The cases on Wednesday, 4/20/22, are revised higher to 57.5K which is the peak for the current BA2 Omicron Subvariant little sister wave 7 thus far. US infections are now running above 50K per day. The 7-day MA rises to 45K cases per day climbing at a faster rate; not good. US active cases are at 1.21 million and rising, small numbers, but indicating that the healthcare workers need to be placed on alert again. Americans continue dying at a pace of 319 deaths per day. Boom. The New York poster boy reports 8.7K daily new cases yesterday the most for the new BA2 wave well underway. This sucks. The never-ending pandemic is never-ending. The poster child says more covid headaches are on the way for all the states. Hopefully, the New York State little sister wave will be a small bump rather than the more substantive waves that occurred in Europe (although the BA2 little sister wave is consistently only about one-half the daily infections or less than the BA1 big sister wave as many charts over the last three articles explain). New Jersey reports 2.9K cases a new high for the BA2 wave. Illinois is over 3.8K cases per day for 2 days running the most for the new BA2 wave. New Hampshire is at 425 daily new cases the most for the BA2 wave. Ditto Rhode Island at 489 new cases yesterday. The Sunshine State is cloudy with Florida reporting 3.6K daily new cases the most for the new BA2 wave. The BA2 wave is underway in the US and the data is disappointing but the expectation remains that the BA2 daily cases wave may be a small short-lived wave. Over the next couple weeks, however, BA2 cases will continue higher especially on the East Coast and in the mid-Atlantic states over to Illinois. Cases trend higher in Pennsylvania, Virginia, Maryland and Indiana.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 4/23/22, at 6:00 AM EST: The world's 7-day MA for daily cases is at 669K cases per day but the last 4 days individual cases are above 669K. The downtrend is likely softening into a more gradual sideways to sideways down path. Europe is on the mend but the progress remains painfully slow. Canada remains stuck in the BA2 wave with cases running at about 10K infections per day. Taiwan reports 3.9K daily new cases yesterday another record high. China remains a covid mess with Shanghai in its fifth week of lockdown. The Chinese benchmark Shanghai Stock Exchange has crashed -20% since December.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 4/23/22, at 7:00 AM EST: Oh no. South Africa. You have got be kidding me. South Africa reports 4.6K daily new cases a big spike higher the most since early February. It is sickening. The damn virus simply keeps reinventing itself to live to fight another day. South Africa begins a new wave 5 higher in daily cases. It is worth a look at neighboring nations. Remember, the B11529 Botswana/South Africa Variant, dubbed omicron by the WHO, now called BA1, was discovered in 4 folks at the Botswana/South Africa border. Also, although the WHO and other so-called authorities say the outbreak started in South Africa, it actually began in Zimbabwe, as the daily cases charts clearly show, and was explained in prior articles. B11529 likely started in Zimbabwe and travelers heading south through Botswana into South Africa spread the Omicron Variant. for the present potential outbreak, Botswana data is unreliable. Zimbabwe is okay without a rise in cases. Eswatini reports a bump in cases up to 63 yesterday the most since February but the numbers are small. Lesotho's data is typically sketchy and unreliable like Botswana. Mozambique is okay. A small bump higher in cases occurs in Namibia. Angola and Zambia appear okay. It appears the new outbreak is likely around the Gauteng region again which is Pretoria and Johannesburg. It would be great if the WHO or anyone could tell the world where the infections are in South Africa. Are any down at Cape Town? Bloomberg reports that the COVID-19 positivity rate rises for 6 days running (citing NICD data) and the economic hub of Gauteng has the most new cases. Health Minister Joe Phaahla says the rise in cases are concerning and officials are monitoring the "worrying signs." Scientists and health officials are hoping that the high natural immunity (about 80% of South Africans have had COVID-19) and protection provided by vaccinations will minimize the new wave. The same hope is occurring in the United States. South Africa says omicron remains the dominant variant. The never-ending pandemic is never-ending. What, Me Worry?
Note Added Sunday Morning, 4/24/22, at 5:00 AM EST: The world reports 549K daily new cases yesterday with the 7-day MA down to 656K cases per day. It is nice to see an individual day back below the moving average after a string of 4 days above even if it is a weekend number. Brazil's carnival celebration is in full swing for the first time since the pandemic started. Sequin costumes, nylon legs, sexy gyrations, risque dancing; cover the children's eyes. It will be interesting to see if the celebrations are a superspreader event for Brazil. Nearly 663K Brazilians are dead from China Flu second to the United States at over 1.018 million deaths. Shanghai reports 39 deaths from China Virus yesterday a surprising number since the communists have been hiding the death numbers. There were 12 deaths in Shanghai the day before. Beijing is next on the covid hit list with infections rising. A Beijing official says, "The situation is grim." Communist China (CCP) is not telling the world what is really happening with their current outbreak just like they lied to the world when COVID-19 likely leaked from the Wuhan Laboratories in 2019. Taiwan reports 4.2K daily new cases another record as the parabolic spike is a moon-shot. Taiwan is stuck in the covid quagmire. Thailand is screwing-up with daily cases rising again for the last few days. Thailand's main economic industry is tourism and relaxing covid guidelines too quickly is likely leading to more infections. Thailanders continue dying at a high rate of about 130 deaths per day. South Africa reports 4.2K cases yesterday another elevated number for the new wave 5 (fifth wave; fifth surge) but a touch below Friday's 4.4K cases. Fingers are crossed that South Africa's wave 5 will peter out as fast as it appeared but this will not be known for a few days. A new outbreak that spreads out from South Africa, through the continent, like omicron, will not be welcome. Canada continues reporting over 9K cases per day struggling to contain the current BA2 outbreak. Where's Trudeau? At a blackface party?
Note Added Sunday Morning, 4/24/22, at 5:30 AM EST: The US reports 18K daily new cases yesterday a good number but limit your applause to a golf clap because it is a Saturday number (weekend numbers are lower). Friday's cases are at 55K an unwelcome sight. The 7-day MA for US daily cases is at 42K cases per day. Wave 7 is underway. 308 Americans are dying per day as per the 7-day MA that is stubbornly refusing to print a 2-handle. New York, the state leading the lousy BA2 Omicron Subvariant parade, reports 4.5K cases yesterday with the 7-day MA at 6.4K cases per day. Other states are in the same BA2 boat as New York as explained in recent days. Article 75 is slated for publication on Tuesday so the progression of the BA2 wave for each individual state can be assessed in detail in a couple days. Europe is improving, and China and Taiwan will eventually come around, and the US is dipping its toe in the BA2 subvariant waters now, but South Africa is key and requires monitoring to see if its new wave 5 has any juice.
Note Added Sunday Afternoon, 4/24/22: Massachusetts is concerned about its bump higher in daily cases over the last week. Boston Health recommends that people where masks indoors again. Hospitalizations are sneaking slightly higher. What a mess. Some cities reinstate masks, some do not. Some transportation modes and terminals require masks, some not. People are fed-up with the bozo leadership across America and are moving on from the pandemic. Providence Health analyzes data from US wave 1 through the delta wave 5 up to the omicron wave 6, and concludes that natural immunity from a covid infection is just as good as the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines. They needed a study to tell you that? Of course it is.
Note Added Monday Morning, 4/25/22, at 3:30 AM EST: China's stock market indexes crash overnight down -5% and more across the board. Shanghai reports 51 deaths yesterday with the China Virus death tally in the city at 138. Cases in Shanghai continue to run over 20K per day so the CCP is forcing stricter draconian measures on the Chinese people. Eight-foot tall (2.4 m) metal gates are installed around apartment buildings preventing residents from leaving. Guards patrol the lockdowns 24/7. In China, everyone is a prisoner. Stocks are crashing because infections are rising in Beijing knocking at dirtbag Dictator Xi's door. Xi is sticking to the failed zero-covid strategy even if the population has to be locked up indefinitely like caged animals. That's the way it goes in a communist state. Foxconn (Hon Hai Precision), Apple's assembler in China, says production continues with workers in a closed-loop system (locked-down at the factory). Beijing residents are lined-up at grocery stores emptying shelves; they see what is happening in Shanghai. In spring, 2020, the Einstein's Trump and Fauci told the US that a two-week lockdown was needed to get control of the pandemic. We know how that turned out. Interestingly, China (the ruling CCP party), dirtbag Xi, told Shanghai residents that an 8-day lockdown was needed to get control of the pandemic. Sadly, we are seeing how that is working out. Beijing authorities require mass testing of the city. This is how the Shanghai nightmare started. The world is on edge from China's troubling COVID-19 outbreak and Russia's war against Ukraine where Putin is Hitler killing women and children to instill fear. The world's economy is faltering and global stock markets dropping. It is another day so Taiwan reports another record high in daily cases at 5.2K; not good. The US needs to help Taiwan in every way possible. The Taiwanese want nothing to do with China's whacko communist system.
Note Added Monday Morning, 4/25/22, at 4:00 AM EST: The world's daily new cases drop to 638K per day the lowest since December. The global death rate drops to 2.3K deaths per day. The world is at 509 million total infections 2 years into the pandemic. South Africa starts the new wave 5, or fifth surge as some call it, with daily new cases running higher at 3.1K cases per day. The numbers are small but this week's data will determine the strength of the wave.
Note Added Monday Morning, 4/25/22, at 4:30 AM EST: The US reports 13K daily new cases a nice low number like Saturday's 17K cases but they are weekend numbers. Nonetheless, it is encouraging news. The 7-day MA for US daily cases is at 40K cases per day moving sideways for one week. Wave 7 is underway but so far favoring a sideways to sideways higher path rather than a parabolic spike. Keep your fingers crossed. America's COVID-19 death rate drops to 293 deaths per day a 2-handle. The deaths are finally retreating to lower levels as news from the field says the Pfizer Paxlovid pills are better stocked across the US. Many Americans died needlessly over the last 5 months due to the unavailability of therapies and treatments such as monoclonal antibodies and Paxlovid anti-viral oral pills, as is the case throughout the pandemic. If you test positive for COVID-19 (get your free tests at www.covid.gov), immediately track down the location of the therapies at the ASPR COVID-19 Therapeutics Locator or the www.healthdata.gov COVID-19 Therapeutic Locator. Take this information to your doctors and healthcare providers so you can receive immediate care. EARLY PREVENTION is the key to beating COVID-19 so you must be proactive. Every hour counts. Give this information to anyone you know that tests positive. The chronology has likely done more to educate Americans on where and how to get help than the government. People want simple, direct, practical and useful information not pontifications. Not one medical pundit on television has ever told Americans about the therapeutic websites. Isn't that sickening? New York reports 4.8K cases yesterday with the 7-day at 6.4K cases per day hanging around in this 6.2K to 6.4K range for the last week. Sideways is better than up. The CDC COVID-19 Community Transmission map clearly shows the infections across New York State. Canada remains challenged and it is east to see that the cases in New York, New Hampshire, Vermont and Maine have a lot to do with Canada's ongoing outbreak. The Canuck's are spreading their disease south. Nebraska is shown with infections increasing and the daily cases show a tiny bump higher. Nebraska's data may be impacted by how many tests are occurring and how they are being reported. If reporting cases intermittently and skipping weekends, it may skew the CDC community data to show a higher rate of infection. The sideways posture in cases for the new waves in New York, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and elsewhere is encouraging and hints that wave 7 may be a small bump rather than a big wave. The data this week tells the story either way and also reveals if the Easter holiday weekend was a superspreader event, or not (today's and Tuesday's daily cases are at the 8 and 9-day mark so if Easter fun causes more infections, it will appear now). If you become sick, don't blame Grandma, research the therapeutics locations above and see your doctor immediately.
Note Added Monday Morning, 4/25/22, at 7:00 AM EST: The Whitehouse announces that the Pfizer Paxlovid anti-viral oral pills no longer have to be rationed as there are ample supplies available. Eureka. Hallelujah as Leonard sings. Paxlovid was available in September and it only (said cynically) took bumbling Biden 7 months to have proper supplies in place across the United States. In handling the once in a century pandemic, King Donnie Trump and Sleepy Joe Biden are Tweedledumb and Tweedledumber. At least things are on track now and Pfizer's Paxlovid pills and Eli Lilly's bebtelovimab monoclonal antibody treatments (infusion) will save American lives both the unvaccinated and elderly vaccinated that become infected with covid. Even though US wave 7 is in progress, there is a feel that better times are ahead.
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