By K E Stone (Keystone)
The weekend begins on a down beat. The Friday data are
typically the highest case numbers of the week and unfortunately, the US
reports 190.4K daily new cases yesterday the most for US wave 5. Bad news. The
previous Friday, 8/20/21, was 183K daily new cases. Any number under 183K would
have been welcome but the 190K is a punch to the gut.
The US daily new cases chart is shown above. The 7-day MA
trend line points higher. The 3-day MA (not shown on chart) is printing higher
highs and higher lows forecasting that the uptrend in daily cases continues and
those prognosticating 200K cases per day are likely correct. The one
silver-lining in the covid sea of misery is that it could have been worse. A 7K
pop in cases from Friday to Friday, at levels near 200K, hints that a
topping-pattern may develop as the rate of increase slows.
The US active cases chart is shown above and a bell shape
for the current fifth wave is nowhere in sight. That blue line rising ever
higher in the chart represents pain and misery for the doctors, nurses, medics
and all support staff at US hospitals. Healthcare workers are exhausted from
the force of the delta wave or more correctly the delta tsunami.
Adding 28 days to the peak in the US daily cases, which is
8/27/21 currently, as per the Keystone Model explained below, targets 9/24/21,
or sooner, as when the US active cases curve will flatten and roll over to form
the coveted bell shape and prove the virus is being defeated. Right now,
however, the United States is hurting.
The over 190K daily new cases yesterday is disheartening
since it was hoped that August misery would lead to a better September. Nope.
September is going to be a lousy coronavirus month for America like August. As
highlighted with the US state list below, the Delta variant is migrating northwest,
north and northeast out of the South so states such as Nebraska, Kansas, Kentucky,
Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania will be in
the news more in the coming days and weeks as cases rise (hope not).
The US deaths chart is shown above. The China Flu has killed
over 653K Americans. 1.3K Americans die yesterday. The 7-day MA continues
higher at 1,033 deaths per day. Over 1,000 Americans soul perish per day 20
months into the pandemic. By definition, the US daily deaths must be below 1.0K
each day forward to pull the moving average lower.
The 3-day MA (not shown) for US deaths is printing higher
lows and higher highs indicating that the uptrend in deaths should continue.
The Delta variant is a fast-moving pathogen but the daily cases are not rolling
over as yet. That means hospitals will be swamped and the death counts should
remain high into mid-September.
Worldometer’s US death count is at 653,405. Johns-Hopkins is636,720 deaths. The CDC is at 632,786 deaths. The Institute for Health Metricsand Evaluation (IHME) is at 632,354 deaths. Worldometer is always the most up
to date coronavirus data. The others will hit the 650K deaths grim milestone in
the coming days.
The CDC COVID Data Tracker shows the US hospitalizationsrunning at 88K based on the 7-day MA. The information is 3 days old. The rate
of hospitalizations may be slowing from day to day which is a hopeful sign that
a topping-out will occur in the days and couple weeks ahead but the pop in US daily
cases yesterday is a setback that could create further buoyancy in the
hospitalizations.
The US hospital admissions chart is attempting to peak whichwould be hopeful since the admissions obviously lead hospitalizations. The age
group chart is interesting showing how the hospital admission curves for the
older folks over 40 years are peaking but the admission curves for all the age
groups below 40 years old are still increasing. The younger folks, that are
less vaccinated, are out and about at summer parties and events spreading virus
and bringing it home to the family. The male ego cannot impress a chick if
wearing a mask regardless of vaccination status. Schools and universities are
reopening also leading to a larger spread of the India B1617 variant (delta).
The Missouri daily new cases chart is shown above. Remember,
Missouri, or Missourah as some of the locals say, is ground zero of the Delta
variant just like Michigan was ground zero of the Alpha variant (UK B117).
Therefore, it is hoped that Missouri can serve as a poster child on how the
delta wave pattern progresses and ends on the daily new cases chart which can
then be applied to the other states for forecasting. The 7-day MA continues
lower but it is concerning, however, that the 3-day MA (not shown but you can
see it at the Worldometer site) is consolidating sideways instead of continuing
to make lower lows.
The inverted (upside-down) V-shaped pattern is easy to see in the Missouri
chart and is a characteristic of the delta wave. Let’s hope it holds and cases
continue dropping. The Missouri active cases curve (not shown but easily seen
at Worldometer) continues higher so the healthcare workers are battered and do
not see an end in sight despite the daily cases peaking on 8/4/21 and 8/11/21
which projects that the active cases curve will flatten and roll over on
9/8/21, or sooner.
Thus, if you are an exhausted nurse or doctor in Missouri,
hang in there since the case load should peak and level-off within 13 days, or
sooner, and a dramatic improvement in the hospital patient load will be quickly
realized. Missouri hospitals are going to be relieved and happy they weathered
the delta storm as they see conditions improving over the next couple-three
weeks. Does this prognostication jive with the CDC’s hospitalization and
admission charts for Missouri?
Bringing up the Missouri hospital admissions chart is a
beautiful sight. It is like crawling through the desert for days on end, the skin
scorched like leather in the hot sun, chapped and blistered lips, sand in the
eyes, and then an oasis appears. Missouri hospital admissions have peaked and
are rolling over lower. Hip Hip Hooray! The admissions for the age groups have
rolled over lower except for the 18 to 29 year old’s and the 50 to 59 year
old’s.
The 18 to 29 group is easy to understand since they are the
partiers and invincible's at that age infecting each other as they drink beer
and wine coolers and pass around a bowl (smoking marijuana (pot) in a pipe).
The 50 to 59 year old’s are trickier to understand when the hospital admissions
for the age groups on either side are improving. Perhaps these 50-something’s
are worried about future retirement while helping a child pay for college so
they are out and about hustling for a buck and receiving more COVID-19
exposure. It may also be a statistical burp in the data and in a few days the
curve for the 50 to 59 year old’s may roll over like the others.
Returning to Missouri’s overall hospital admissions curve,
the peak is 8/14/21. Skipping over to the hospitalization charts and using the
drop-down menu for Missouri, shows the daily hospitalizations peaking on
8/18/21 and the 7-day MA trend line peaking on 8/22/21. This good news deserves
a Missouri Yee-haw! Thus, the hospital conditions in Missouri are improving
fast which will help roll over the active cases curve that provides the proof
that the virus is being defeated.
The Missouri daily new cases peak on 8/4/21 at the top of
the inverted V-shaped pattern. Then hospital admissions peaked on 8/14/21 which
is 10 days later. Then hospitalizations peaked on 8/18/21 which is 14 days
after the peak in daily new cases and 4 days after the peak in admissions. The
Missouri active cases chart is the last and key piece of the puzzle since it
dictates that the virus is being defeated, or not. Since the hospital data is
improving, that will help roll over the active cases chart faster. Hang in
there, Missouri, funky Good Times are coming, as Nile shows us, but only if the
daily cases continue trailing lower.
The Florida daily new cases chart is shown above and someone
needs to tell Governor DeSantis to sit down before he is told that cases jump
to 27.6K cases the most ever. Florida’s data is sketchy since they intended to
start reporting on a weekly basis but then reversed that plan due to the Delta
variant. DeSantis is shut down in the courts on Friday ruling that school
districts can choose to mandate masks. The jump in cases has to be due, in some
part at least, to many people and children not wearing masks although the
science on the usefulness of masks has yet to be decided.
Florida is in trouble with daily cases, active cases,
admissions and hospitalizations. Conditions were improving, as evidenced by the
flat 7-day MA for daily cases, until the 27.6K tape bomb hit. DeSantis tied
himself to the maskless mast of the covid ship but the boat just hit the reef
and is taking on water.
On the US vaccination front, the fear-mongering campaign is
working. 173 million Americans are fully vaccinated 52% of the population. Over
61% of the population has at least one dose. Adding in the natural immunities
of 10% to 30%, the US should be in good shape for herd immunity (71% to 91%)
once the Delta variant is sent packing.
The US vaccination rate is between 600 and 800K doses perday on average. It is hard to pin down since the CDC data is always looking in
the rearview mirror and slow to update. Various sources are reporting that the
US may have hit 1.1 million doses per day yesterday the most since June. The
Whitehouse and CDC, and their complicit democrat media, will be cranking twice
as many fear stories now that they see it is working.
On the international front, the UK daily cases chart is
shown above. The UK reports daily new cases above 38K for the last 2 days the
highest in 5 weeks and likely start of wave 5. The UK active cases curve has
curled over lower, a good thing, but it will probably curl back up confirming
the new wave 5. The UK has a problem on its hands and may not realize it thinking
the worst is over. It’s not over for the Brit’s. A new nightmare wave 5 begins.
The last chance to roll the wave over quickly is this week.
The Malaysia daily new cases chart is shown above with 24.6K
daily new cases reported for Thursday. It is as if Malaysia does not want to
get better. They are trying to keep the economy going but they are succeeding
at spreading coronavirus. Malaysia desperately needs to stop the daily cases
from escalating. There was hope with the 7-day MA flattening but now it curls
higher again. Malaysia deaths remain at record levels.
The Philippines daily new cases chart is shown above with
record cases occurring over the last week. The infection wave migrated from
India to Bangladesh and Myanmar, then Thailand, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam,
then Indonesia and Malaysia and now the Philippines.
Israel’s daily new cases chart is shown above. Once the
shining example of a robust vaccination program but now a country in
coronavirus shambles. Despite the wide vaccinations and booster shots ongoing,
the daily cases tease record highs. Perhaps the inverted (upside-down) V-shaped pattern for daily new cases, a
characteristic of the delta wave, will bless Israel with a brighter path
forward.
Russia’s death chart is shown above with a record 820 deaths
occurring on 8/26/21 the deadliest day ever of the pandemic. Dictator Putin
must be eliminating his detractors and chalking the murders up to covid. Over
800 Ruskies are meeting The Maker each day for 6 weeks. It is as if Putin is
lining up 800 Russians against the wall each day and shooting them. The Sputnik
V vaccine must be junk. Maybe it is glucose and water? Dirtbag Putin controls
the media messaging. The Ruskies are dying face down in their borscht.
The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases
in the world at 39.5 million. India is next with 32.6 million total virus cases.
Brazil, Russia, France, UK, Turkey, Argentina, Colombia and Iran round out the
top ten. Spain slips to the 11th slot and Italy 12th. Note how the misery in
Iran escalates as its case count moves up the list. Iran will likely overtake
Colombia by next time.
China Flu has infected 216.4 million people worldwide. 4.5
million people are dead from COVID-19. Fortunately, 193.4 million global
citizens have recovered from coronavirus. 89% (193.4/216.4) of the people that
become infected with COVID-19 recover in a reasonable time frame. This
percentage had improved to the 92% level about 2 months ago but now slips down
to 89%. Perhaps this slippage hints that the Delta variant is harder to recover
from than the original virus albeit by a small amount.
Worldwide, 2.1% (4.5/216.4) of the people that are infected
with covid die. This number has sat at 2.1%-2.2% for many months. 1 in every 47
people that are infected with China Flu around the world will die, and this
number does not budge week after week month after month. It is always 2.1%-2.2%
and will not change even with vaccinations available for over a half year. The
global mortality rate is at an impasse for months. It will be a great day if it
ever decreases.
2.8% (216.4/7670) of the world’s population of 7.67 billion
people have been infected with coronavirus; 1 in every 35 people on earth. The Wuhan
Virus has negatively impacted everyone on the planet.
In the United States, 39.5 million people are infected with covid.
653K Americans are dead. 30.8 million Americans have recovered from coronavirus.
This equates to 78% (30.8/39.5) of US citizens recovering after becoming
infected with COVID-19. The number was at 83% and 84% only 2 months ago and now
drops to 78%. Chalk it up to the Delta variant? Like the world’s recovery rate
above, the US recovery rate may have met its ceiling at about 84%. The US
recovery rate is lower than the world’s, 78% versus 89%, because of America’s obesity
problem; at least the fat herd is getting trimmed.
In the US, 1.7% (653/39500) of the people infected with COVID-19
die. This number remains sticky for many months at 1.8% and now at 1.7% for the
last 3 weeks. Perhaps the vaccinations are helping create that incremental tick
lower in the midst of the delta wave. The 1.7% equates to 1 in every 59 US
citizens that are infected with coronavirus dying.
The death rate is at 2.1% globally which is higher than the
US reflecting the lower vaccination rates, less medical equipment such as
ventilators and oxygen tanks, less hospitals, and less medical folks to work at
the facilities. Poorer nations also battle subpar environmental and living conditions.
12.0% (39.5/330) of the American population of 330 million
people have been infected with covid a jump of one percentage point over the
last 3 weeks. 1 in every 8 Americans have been stricken with coronavirus. The minority
communities are impacted disproportionately. The 12% solidly contributes
towards herd immunity (the number is likely far larger by the CDC’s own admission) by providing natural antibody
protection.
The United States has 18.3% (39.5/216.4) of the COVID-19
cases in the world. 1 in 5 people (5.5 to be exact which is 2 in 11) that
become infected with covid on planet earth are Americans. The US vaccination
program is making a difference. This percentage was 22% about 5 months ago so the
drop is great news for the US but bad news for other nations since their
infection numbers are higher.
The US accounts for 14.5% (653/4500) of the China Flu deaths
in the world. The trends lower in the US cases and deaths as compared to the
world are basing and leveling-off. 1 in 7 people that die from COVID-19 around
the world are Americans. 5 months ago, it was 1 in 5. The numbers are going in
the right direction for the US but the improvement may be stalling.
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model,
the Keystone Model for short, is a simple model that predicts when the active
cases chart curves will flatten-out and roll-over lower. The active cases chart
is the ‘flatten the curve’ chart that represents the maximum stress and strain on
the medical system and healthcare workers. Once the active cases chart rolls
over forming the bell shape, the virus is being defeated and healthcare workers
can breathe easier.
The Keystone Model uses the peak in the daily new cases to
forecast the peak and flattening of the active cases curve. The ‘flattening of
the curve’ only pertains to the active cases chart. For communist nations where
the populations must do what they are told or they receive a bullet in their
heads (China), and for smaller authoritarian nations (Eastern European
countries, Africa and Middle East nations), and many Asian nations where
citizens follow government rules without questioning authority (South Korea,
Japan, Singapore, Australia), the active cases curve will peak, on average, 11
days after the peak in daily new cases.
For the Western countries, such as the US and European
nations, the so-called free societies, the active cases curve will peak, on
average, 28 days after the peak in new cases (it takes about 2 weeks longer,
for a free society to tamp down a virus wave than a communist or authoritarian
state mainly because lockdowns cannot be enforced as easily).
During the last few months, the 11 and 28-day timeframes
compress slightly since more is known about handling coronavirus. Thus, a
couple days can be shaved off the current target dates. Further, the Delta wave
is playing out as a fast-moving inverted V pattern and may finish faster than
the allotted days in the model.
All projections below for countries and the US states
continue to use the 11 and 28-day periods for forecasting for consistency. When
the peak in daily new cases occurs, if a subsequent day is within 8% of that
peak top, it is identified as the peak in daily new cases day.
The peak in the daily new cases is easily seen on the bar
charts provided by Worldometer, the CDC and Johns-Hopkins. The daily new cases
bar charts are shown on television news channels with a 7-day moving average
(MA) line which is a smoothing mechanism that identifies the trend.
An update for The Keystone Model is provided since another
10-day period passes, actually 11 days this time, and more data and information
become available to push the COVID-19 story forward. The Coronavirus Chronology
identifies the real-time hotspots occurring around the world and within the
United States. The chronology serves as a historical document that will be
referenced for decades to come by those that want to experience the entire
pandemic as it unfolds in real-time.
The Coronavirus Chronology compilation of articles will be
published in the future by Amazon and distributed internationally. This is
Article 52 in the Coronavirus Chronology that provides real-time information for
historians, teachers, students, journalists, economists, market participants, corporate
executives, financial managers, Wall Street, doctors, nurses, medical personnel,
first responders, researchers, public officials, news organizations, traders,
investors and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic both domestically
(USA) and internationally. This fifty-second article is published on Saturday,
8/28/21.
The coronavirus series of articles are the only real-time
source of information available continuously chronicling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic
during 2020 and 2021. Readers live and breathe the pandemic, the worst in a century,
as it occurs in real-time, experiencing the daily virus zeitgeist, good or bad,
devoid of political correctness. This is not revisionist history-telling. It is
the raw pandemic truth and human emotion occurring, recorded and chronicled in
real time, without any allegiance to political parties or media sources. The
information is direct and unapologetic.
All 52 Coronavirus Chronology articles are archived on The
Keystone Speculator blog. The last couple articles are linked below if you want
to come up to speed with the COVID-19 saga.
The Worldometer web site tracks the coronavirus (COVID-19) around
the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus series of
articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. The
CDC COVID Data Tracker is another excellent source of information. The
Worldometer, Johns-Hopkins and CDC data track each other well with the
Worldometer data ahead of the Johns-Hopkins and CDC data by a few days. The
Worldometer data is far superior for forecasting since it is updated more
reliably in real-time.
The countries with rising active cases charts are
highlighted below with the worst nations at the bottom. The United States
remains on the bad list. The peaks in daily new cases are shown and the projected
peaks for active cases are based on the Keystone Model. The peak and flattening
of the active cases curve represent the maximum stress on healthcare workers
and then the caseload improves as the active cases curve drops off forming the
bell shape.
It will take longer for the active cases charts to roll over
to form the bell shape for those troubled nations at the bottom of the list
(they are still experiencing highs and peaks in their daily new cases).
Hospitalizations lag the daily cases by a week or two and deaths lag
hospitalizations by a week or two.
DRC-Congo (Third Wave)
6/19/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
7/17/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (chart continues higher)
7/25/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of wave 3 occur in early July)
8/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (may have peaked 8/24/21, give it a few days; Russia’s
first 2 waves follow the 11-day period basis but the 28-day period is more
apropos now)
7/28/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
8/8/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (trying to roll over now; Algeria is another nation
that beat waves back in the 11-day time frame but 28 days are more apropos now)
7/31/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever)
8/28/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (chart continues higher)
8/1/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
8/12/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (chart continues higher; another nation that beat back
initial waves in an 11-day period but now the 28-day period is more apropos)
8/5/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases for wave 4)
8/16/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (chart continues higher)
8/7/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
8/18/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
8/11/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for wave 4)
8/22/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (chart continues higher)
8/17/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
8/28/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (chart continues higher)
8/19/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
8/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
8/19/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever)
9/16/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
8/23/21 New Case Peak Date
9/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
8/23/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases for wave 5)
9/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
8/23/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases for wave 5)
9/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
8/24/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for wave 5 almost ever)
9/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
8/24/21 New Case Peak Date
9/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
8/24/21 New Case Peak Date
9/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
8/25/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever during August)
9/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
8/25/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases for wave 4 during August)
9/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
8/26/21 New Case Peak Date
9/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
8/26/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever during the last week as Paralympics continues)
9/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
8/26/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest daily cases ever)
9/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
8/26/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever)
9/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
8/26/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever)
9/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
8/27/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases for wave 5 occur over last week)
9/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
8/27/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases for wave 5)
9/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
8/27/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases for wave 5)
9/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
8/27/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases for wave 5)
9/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
8/27/21 New Case Peak Date
9/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
8/27/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases for wave 5)
9/24/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
8/27/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases for wave 5)
9/24/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
The UK is dealing with a new wave 5 with daily cases rising for nearly 6 weeks running. Interestingly, for wave 4, the Keystone Model predicted 8/14/21 as the top in the active cases curve and nailed it to the day. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then. However, no sooner does UK wave 4 subside, but a new wave 5 begins (see chart above) in Britain.
The UK has a chance to snuff out wave 5 before it has enough
juice to curl the active cases higher but it is more likely that the active
cases will curl higher again or at least bump sideways instead of falling to
create the coveted bell shape. UK PM Johnson has his hands full this week; they
are full of rosary beads as he kneels on the hardwood floors praying that the
daily cases drop. A UK official is concerned about an exponential increase in
child hospitalizations.
Greece worsens with the most daily cases ever on 8/24/21
last Tuesday. All the tourists are bringing their cash to the Greek Islands
along with China Flu. The vacationers frolic on the beaches and visit the
Parthenon distributing COVID-19 far and wide. France is taken off the bad list
above as its active cases chart rolls over to the downside. President Macron
celebrates with wine, baguette and cigarettes.
Italy deteriorates. The infections must be spreading due to
‘all those tourists covered with oil’ as Jimmy Buffett would sing. The beaches of
Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal are the European vacation destinations. The
summer joy and bikini sightseeing come with coronavirus strings attached. Ditto
visiting the Vatican; there may be some sick pups walking around.
Kazakhstan’s active cases chart is rolling over so the 2
months of misery in that nation subsides. As mentioned above with the Russia
chart, the deaths are epic at over 800 per day, every day for the last 6 weeks.
Where’s Putin? Bueller? Putin? Bueller? Guinea is taken off the bad list
because its active cases peak on 8/17/21 (the Keystone Model predicted 8/18/21)
and drop off.
South Korea remains a mess. Like Israel, Japan, Australia
and New Zealand, all walking around last year with their chests puffed-out
about handling the pandemic properly but this year their countries are in
coronavirus shambles. South Korea reports the most deaths since January. Japan
extends its states of emergency again as the Paralympics continue. New Zealand
is placed on the list above and must now perform the daily walk of shame with
analysts scrutinizing the cases.
Thailand is on the mend and taken off the bad list above as
its daily new cases and active cases drop off. Thailand deaths remain elevated.
As mentioned above, Malaysia is a mess and cannot get a handle on the outbreak.
Malaysia reports the most deaths ever last Thursday at nearly 400 souls.
Central America remains a COVID-19 hot zone with Guatemala
and Costa Rica cases continuing higher. On a positive note, Mexico daily cases
are pulling back in recent days.
The next list is the US states struggling with coronavirus
with the worst states listed at the bottom. The peak in daily new cases and
projections for the peaks in active cases are provided as per the Keystone
Model. The flattening and roll over of the active cases curve forming the bell
shape indicates the virus is being defeated and the caseload on healthcare
workers will quickly improve.
The southern and coastal states are slapped around the
hardest but there are improvements occurring. Reference the Missouri discussion
above which may light the path for many of the states in the list below.
Alabama is also another poster child state that may light the way forward. The
virus is migrating northwest, north and northeast from the South so Oklahoma,
Kansas, Nebraska, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland
and Pennsylvania must remain on high alert.
The Delta variant outbreak displays an inverted (upside-down) V pattern on
the daily cases chars for many countries and now Missouri and Alabama. Cases
pop higher but then quickly peak and drop-off just as fast. The delta wave
hospitalizations catapult higher at 3 to 4 times the rate of the initial waves
of COVID-19 creating stress for healthcare workers.
Missouri (Fifth Wave)
8/11/21 New Case Peak Date
9/8/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
8/12/21
New Case Peak Date
9/9/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/13/21
New Case Peak Date
9/10/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/13/21
New Case Peak Date
9/10/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/17/21
New Case Peak Date
9/14/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/18/21
New Case Peak Date
9/13/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/19/21
New Case Peak Date
9/10/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date (peak appearing 8/15/21 which would make the
data problematic; give it a few days; Arkansas may be first to roll over its
active cases chart)
8/19/21
New Case Peak Date
9/16/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/20/21
New Case Peak Date (highest cases ever are 8/13 and 8/20/21)
9/17/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/20/21
New Case Peak Date
9/17/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/23/21
New Case Peak Date
9/20/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/23/21
New Case Peak Date
9/20/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/24/21
New Case Peak Date
9/21/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/24/21
New Case Peak Date (Sturgis Motorcycle Rally)
9/21/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/24/21
New Case Peak Date
9/21/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/24/21
New Case Peak Date
9/21/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/25/21
New Case Peak Date
9/22/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/25/21
New Case Peak Date
9/22/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/25/21
New Case Peak Date
9/22/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/25/21
New Case Peak Date
9/22/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/26/21
New Case Peak Date
9/23/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/26/21
New Case Peak Date
9/23/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/26/21
New Case Peak Date
9/23/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/26/21
New Case Peak Date
9/23/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/26/21
New Case Peak Date
9/23/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/26/21
New Case Peak Date
9/23/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/26/21 New Case Peak Date
9/23/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/26/21
New Case Peak Date
9/23/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/26/21
New Case Peak Date
9/23/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/27/21
New Case Peak Date
9/24/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/27/21
New Case Peak Date
9/24/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/27/21
New Case Peak Date
9/24/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/27/21
New Case Peak Date
9/24/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/27/21
New Case Peak Date
9/24/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/27/21
New Case Peak Date
9/24/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/27/21 New Case Peak Date
9/24/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
8/27/21 New Case Peak Date
9/24/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
8/27/21 New Case Peak Date
9/24/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
8/27/21 New Case Peak Date
9/24/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
8/27/21 New Case Peak Date
9/24/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
8/27/21 New Case Peak Date
9/24/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
8/27/21 New Case Peak Date
9/24/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
8/27/21 New Case Peak Date
9/24/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
8/27/21 New Case Peak Date
9/24/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
8/27/21 New Case Peak Date
9/24/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
8/27/21 New Case Peak Date
9/24/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
8/27/21 New Case Peak Date
9/24/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
8/27/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever)
9/24/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
8/27/21 New Case Peak Date
9/24/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
8/27/21 New Case Peak Date
9/24/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
All 50 states remain on the bad list which is disappointing. Arkansas’s active cases curve has rolled over but the daily cases keep printing new highs so there may be a data issue. Arkansas, Missouri and Alabama may be the first to roll their active cases curves over to start to form the bell shape where the healthcare workers will begin to notice a slow reduction, then fast, of the case load. These 3 states are key since they may point the way forward for other states and provide insight on how the delta wave plays out.
Hawaii remains in deep trouble. On the list it is easy to
see how the vacation spots are generating the illnesses. Hawaii, Florida, the
southern coast, the East Coast with the Carolina’s and points north, the West
Coast with California, Washington and Oregon. Folks love to visit the coastal
beaches to breathe the healthy salt water air only now the tourist joints are
laden with coronavirus. No one cares since they are having fun. The people that
should worry are the overweight and obese folks (some readers glance down at
their belly’s).
Highly-populated states such as Florida, California, Texas
and New York add greatly to the daily new cases totals. States such as Vermont
are dealing with a new wave but the total case numbers remain small. The US
wave 5 spreads outwards from the southern states with an infection wave moving
northeast through Kentucky, West Virginia, Ohio and trying to start trouble in
Pennsylvania.
It is an ugly situation but lots of folks are vaccinated and
others have contracted coronavirus over the last year. Both groups help create
the march towards herd immunity. The summertime was supposed to help tamp down
the pandemic but the relentless heat and humidity in many states has forced
folks inside to the air conditioning where they cough on each other and breathe
each other’s recirculated air.
The concerts and sporting events are creating infections.
Middle-aged folks, vaccinated or unvaccinated, can carry virus home and sicken their
kids. Schools and universities are reopening which creates new cases. The
migrant crisis continues at the southern border causing more cases in
California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas, and even Louisiana, Mississippi,
Alabama, Florida and Georgia, too. Americans are also taking car vacations
driving to the coastal beaches where they are picking up coronavirus and
distributing it there and elsewhere.
The United States healthcare workers are getting stretched
to the limit. In some states, conditions are clearly worse than the January
peak but in other states folks are yawning asking what all the fuss is about.
The doctors and nurses will continue to be swamped across the US, especially
the South and on the coasts, through mid-September but some states, such as
Missouri, Alabama and Arkansas, may see improvements in hospital caseloads this
week.
Even if someone takes a vaccine now, there is a 3 to 4 week
period between shots, and then another 2-week period after the second shot, 6
weeks in all from the first shot, when you reach fully protection. By then, the
delta wave may be in the rearview mirror.
The monoclonal antibody treatments are taking off like
wildfire. Unvaccinated Americans are seeking the intravenous mAb treatments
because they are sick now and a vaccination will not do them any good. Once
they get better, they will likely seriously entertain the vaccination but for
now, folks are concentrating on surviving the illness.
Hospitals are clearing rooms and placing recliners to accept
multiple monoclonal antibody patients at once. Many hospitals and clinics say
their phones are ringing off the hook with people asking about the mAb
treatments. Regeneron is the treatment that helped save former President
Trump’s life but there are others such as Eli Lilly’s cocktail. Lord Fauci gave
his blessing to monoclonal antibody treatments last week, and they are emergency-approved
for public use, like the vaccines, which likely leads to the wider acceptance
over the last few days.
Isn’t it rich? The democrat media bashes monoclonal antibody
treatments for months with pundits calling the intravenous therapy a carnival
wagon elixir and other derogatory names. Now the mAb treatments are going
mainstream and everyone has amnesia about the idiot things they said. The same
is happening with ivermectin right now.
Some idiots in the south used animal-grade ivermectin on
themselves to fight coronavirus but instead become sick and call the poison
center. No one died. Ivermectin is a horse deworming medicine so the most that
would have happened would be an uncontrollable urge to “Whinny.” Folks have to
be stupid to use the animal-grade ivermectin that is not fit for human
consumption or use. After the story hit a few days ago, stores are saying their
ivermectin supplies are being purchased at a faster pace. The media bears a lot
of the blame.
Ivermectin is useful in fighting COVID-19 and it is
prescribed by doctors in the United States but you have to discuss this treatment
possibility with your doctor and the other doctors that are having great
success with alternate coronavirus treatments. Do not be a moron and use the animal
ivermectin. See a doctor to discuss the possibility and learn how to use
ivermectin in conjunction with many other medicines, vitamins and supplements.
The more tools in the covid toolbox the better but unfortunately, the
Whitehouse and CDC control freaks want everyone to solely focus on vaccinations
and ignore all other treatments and therapies.
People can pursue multiple preventive and other treatments
in conjunction with their doctor’s advice. That is the way you want to tend to
your own healthcare. Just like the naysayers denigrating monoclonal antibody
treatments when clearly the studies and trials show success, and now mAb is
accepted by Fauci himself, ivermectin will likely follow the same path.
Early next year, the teleprompter readers will be saying
ivermectin is found as an effective treatment as part of a wider protocol like
it is used successfully to treat patients. But folks, you have to see your
doctor and other healthcare professionals and not use any medicine intended for
horses. Ivermectin is FDA approved for limited human uses but is not yet
approved specifically for COVID-19.
The US Supreme Court shoots down President Biden and the
CDC’s eviction moratorium. It was an unconstitutional edict and even the
president knew it was which makes it sickening. Of course, everyone is
sympathetic to both the renters unable to pay rent due to the pandemic turmoil
as well as the landlords getting shafted by the government decrees but the
president is bound by his oath to protect and defend the Constitution; instead,
he spits on it. Biden is participating in the ‘central planning’ that the
Founding Fathers vehemently warned against. Are you starting to understand why
America’s crony capitalism system is crumbling and on its last legs?
The courts will be loaded up with evictions and people will
lose their shelter. The Whitehouse wants to see unused rescue funds used to
help the landlords and tenants. The evictions will create another layer of
ugliness between America’s 30 million rich and 300 million poor. Five decades
of crony capitalism cannot be fixed overnight. The have’s took all the money
and left the have not’s with nothing. The next decade or two will be payback
time in America.
An Israeli study shows that natural immunity is superior to
the Pfizer 2-shot vaccine. The paper is quick to tell people not to try and get
infected; that would be idiotic. Vaccines are encouraged since they guard
against major illness and death. The jackass pundits keep telling Americans to
get vaccinated even if they had COVID-19 but they may simply be talking out of
their arse.
The Israeli study suggests that it is best to talk things
over with your doctor to find out what is best for your situation. Keystone
knows folks in Pittsburgh that were tested for antibodies and when found that
the levels were adequate, the doctors advised against taking the vaccine. How
many millions of people are in this camp that the Whitehouse still considers
eligible for a vaccination?
Biden orders all active military, over 800K troops, to get
vaccinated or face court martial. Isn’t that a great way to treat the men and
women that decided to defend our nation with their lives? It is disrespectful. Get
down on your knees and roll up your sleeves. Proudly display the Band-Aid on
your arm to prove that you submit to the power of others; the Mark of the
Beast. The Jews wore the yellow star and said ‘what the heck, it’s no biggie’.
How did that work out? Americans wear masks and a Band-Aid on their arms to
identify themselves as righteous.
President Biden is dealing with massive problems including
the Afghanistan evacuation debacle where 13 US troops died on Thursday. Biden
is asked to comment on the Afghanistan and COVID-19 pandemic situations. Sleepy
Joe replies, “Where’s my hat? Did you take my pudding? I like pudding.”
In Morgantown, West Virginia, a truck carrying Moderna
vaccine crashes and rolls down a hill. The driver is trapped requiring the
‘jaws of life’ for extraction. The vaccine was destined for foreign countries.
People are concerned about the higher number of children in hospitals.
There is a serious outbreak of RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) at the same
time which may be conflating the numbers. A child may enter the hospital with RSV,
and then also contract COVID-19, so the young person then becomes a coronavirus
statistic.
The KFF data continues showing that the least vaccinatedgroup in America are the republicans at 54%. Next is the 18 to 29 years old age
group at 57% vaccinated and then the 30 to 49 year old’s at 58% vaccinated.
Young people think they are invincible. If you are a young person, and think
you are invincible, but you are fat, pick up your smartphone and call your
doctor to discuss vaccination.
Pittsburgh was ready to rock-out a few days ago with Kiss in
town but bandmate Paul Stanley tests positive for COVID-19. More breakthrough
cases. Bandmate Gene Simmons, known for his tongue, is a consummate promoter
and marketer and knows how to play the game saying all the right things. Kiss
takes the pandemic serious having a dedicated coronavirus person on staff.
Everyone is vaccinated.
All people involved with the Kiss production are wearing
masks and following other CDC protocols and yet the virus still attacks and
ruins a night of music fun. Kiss also cancels shows in North Carolina and
Georgia. There will be no tongues on display this evening. There will be norocking and rolling all night long, or partying every day, because the big bad
meanie China Flu, always gets its way.
Watch Missouri, Alabama and Arkansas since they are the
states that may show how the delta wave rolls over and dies going forward. Look
for the inverted V-shaped pattern on the daily new cases charts a
characteristic of the India B1617 variant (delta) wave.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 8/29/21, at 3:00 AM EST: Hurricane Ida is upgraded to a CAT 4 storm (130 to 156 MPH; 209 to 251 KM/H) and is hitting Louisiana 16 years to the day after Hurricane Katrina that took 1,800 lives. Many areas are under mandatory evacuations with the roads jammed. People seeking shelter will likely spread coronavirus but this is the last thing on anyone's mind as the killer storm approaches. People are fearful because of the Louisiana Superdome Mad Max scenario that unfolded during Katrina. The Superdome was the 'shelter of last resort' that showed how, after only a couple of days without food and low on water, human beings turn into animals, splitting into ruthless gangs to control others and access to the restrooms, and commandeer supplies. It was tribal. It was Animal Farm. Humans believe they are refined beings but it is simply an illusion if food and water are taken away. Pity on the hospitals and healthcare workers dealing with the pandemic across the South and now smacked in the face with a CAT 4. Nurses and doctors in the Bayou State exclaim that they are in full disaster mode. The hospitals in and around New Orleans are sheltering in place. Patients cannot be evacuated since all other hospitals across the South are also full of coronavirus patients. Pray and hope for the best but it is likely going to be ugly.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 8/29/21, at 3:30 AM EST: The US reports 72.8K daily new cases for Saturday a lower weekend number. The peak thus far in daily cases for wave 5 is Friday's 190.5K cases. It would be great if Friday's peak in daily new cases serves as the apex of the inverted V-shaped pattern that is the hallmark of the delta wave. 648 Americans die yesterday. Oregon and Washington state are a mess. The Carolina's are a mess. Florida and Georgia continue struggling. Kentucky faces a difficult couple weeks ahead. Ditto Indiana, Ohio, Virginia and West Virginia. Pennsylvania is showing a move higher in cases but for now it is trying to hold back the delta force.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 8/29/21, at 4:00 AM EST: Daily new cases are finally starting to pull back in Iran creating the coveted inverted (upside-down) V-shape so better times may be on the way for the terrorist nation. Italy needs to redouble its efforts at combatting the virus. There must be a lot of tourist comingling and let's call it, guest hospitality, going on spreading COVID-19 and maintaining elevated case counts in the boot-shaped nation. In France, protests continue for seven straight weeks demonstrating against the new 'health pass' required to enter certain businesses or attend events. Sacrebleu! Over 200 separate demonstrations occur across France with at least four in Paris. Governments are stupidly fostering hate between vaccinated and unvaccinated people. To what end for society? Mexico's daily new cases chart is starting to form the inverted V-shape a welcome sight. Malaysia, Vietnam and Philippines remain a mess. Philippines reports 19.2K daily new cases the most ever so the Filipino's will be smacked around for the next couple weeks with hospitalizations rising dramatically. Philippine Dictator Duterte faces a coronavirus challenge during September. The filthy CCP continues to try and deflect blame for the origin of coronavirus. The Wuhan Lab leak is the obvious Occam's razor explanation but China refuses to allow any investigations into their nefarious deeds. The dirtbag CCP promotes a story in their controlled media that says the virus came from Fort Detrick in the United States. That is what filthy lying communists do. The filthy CCP does not want to pay reparations to the world for the China Flu pandemic they started, but they will, or WW III is likely in our futures. For now, the ongoing worldwide battle against the Wuhan Virus continues. One problem at a time.
Note Added Monday Morning, 8/30/21, at 3:00 AM EST: The US reports 37.3K daily new cases a welcome low number but it is Sunday's number which usually is the lowest. Last Sunday was 121.5K daily cases! That is a heck of a difference week on week. It is a very positive development out of the blue. Could the US have reached the apex of the inverted V pattern of the delta wave? Maybe. Saturday is 81.5K daily new cases compared to the previous Saturday at 149.5K daily cases another positive. These numbers indicate that a trend change (from up to down) may be afoot (a good thing). The 3-day MA, the jaggy trend line, prints a lower low and a substantive lower low more good news indicating the apex of the US wave 5 may be at hand. The 7-day MA trend line has rolled over to the downside so the good news keeps coming. Friday's high 191.2K daily new cases, the most for wave 5, was a shiv stuck into Uncle Sam's ribs, but it may have been the last hurrah for the Delta wave. Of course, the data this week will tell the tale and the Friday number, 9/3/21, takes on epic importance. Maybe we can stop the India B1617 variant (delta) scourge before the US daily cases hit 200K? 284 Americans die from China Flu yesterday. Missouri, Alabama and Arkansas remain on the mend with daily new cases so the healthcare workers will notice the caseloads improve in these states in the coming days. The doctors, nurses, medics and the support staff need a break and it is coming. Hurricane Ida smacks Louisiana overnight a CAT 4 with winds at 150 MPH (241 KM/H). Ida is the second largest storm to ever hit the US and its power is displayed by the Mississippi River flowing north (backwards). 1 million customers are out of power, which likely corresponds to over 2 million people, as electrical transmission poles and lines are torn to the ground. Hospitals are operating on generator back-up power. Healthcare workers are staying at the hospitals 24/7 helping the COVID-19 patients.
Note Added Monday Morning, 8/30/21, at 4:00 AM EST: The world's daily new cases are subsiding more good news. The 7-day MA has rolled over and is heading lower so the globe rejoices. Worldwide deaths remain buoyant but the 7day MA trend line is rolling over for deaths as well. The world may be on the mend but the hotspots in Southeast Asia, Central America and other pockets around the globe continue. The Philippines reports over 18K daily cases currently setting new record highs for the pandemic. Keystone cancels his trip to the white sand beaches of Boracay. Dictator Duterte is allowing expansion of gambling casinos on Boracay to generate tax money to pay for the enormous coronavirus costs. Philippines would be wise to remain friends with the United States as they see their country ravaged by China's Wuhan Virus. Vietnam remains a mess. Indonesia remains on the mend their daily cases chart sporting the textbook inverted V shape the hallmark of the Delta variant wave. Indonesia crosses the 4 million total cases milestone. Thailand is on the mend but deaths remain too high. The deaths trail the active cases and hospitalizations by a week or two which lag the daily cases by a week or two so the Thai deaths should start to drop off this week. Malaysia remains a mess but perhaps they can turn the corner this week following the Indonesia and Thailand lead. Japan's daily cases may be topping-out but the island nation remains a mess as the Paralympics continues. Japan logs 60 daily deaths late last week the most since mid-June. Iran is approaching 5 million total cases but fortunately the daily cases may have peaked and the characteristic inverted (upside-down) V shape starting to form. Israel remains challenged with over 80K active cases testing the worst levels of the pandemic in January and February. Guatemala and Costa Rica remain a mess as if there are no mitigation efforts to stop the virus at all. A few of the key worldwide COVID-19 trouble spots include Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Japan, Iran, Israel, Guatemala and Costa Rica, but overall, the world is improving.
Note Added Monday Afternoon, 8/30/21: Hurricane Ida smacks Louisiana. 39 hospitals and medical facilities are on back-up generator power. The EU (European Union) recommends that the travel restrictions be reinstated for Americans due to the ongoing Delta variant outbreak. The new rules are targeting the unvaccinated. Back in the US, the CDC Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices endorses the full approval of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine for Americans 16 years old and older. The FDA provided full approval last week and then the CDC meets to provide its stamp of approval as per standard practice. The vaccine remains in emergency use for the 12 to 15 year old's. Other reviews are ongoing to expand the vaccines to children from 5 to 11 years old and also to provide a third booster shot for Americans 8 months after their second shot of the mRNA vaccine. The Whitehouse says a plan is under consideration to provide boosters for anyone 5 months after the second shot (for the mRNA vaccines) following Israel's booster program. The NFL (National Football League; American football) is open to mandating vaccines for players but the union is against the idea. The football season kicks-off in a week and the league plans to follow the same protocols as last year. Various teams are experiencing a few infections which is concerning the league but the power brokers want butts in seats so they can make money so full steam ahead for football Delta variant be damned. Humans like money.
Note Added Monday Evening, 8/30/21, at 9 PM EST: Florida talk radio host Mark Bernier, a vehement anti-vaxxer, nick-named Mr Anti-Vax, dies from China Flu. 65-year old Bernier was hospitalized 3 weeks ago and went downhill. AM radio talk show host Phil Valentine, that also railed against vaccinations died a month ago. Another radio host in Florida, Dick Farrel, that also appeared on republican media outlet Newsmax, croaked from covid. From photos, Bernier was clearly overweight and Farrel appeared obese. On the Sunday morning news shows, Lord Fauci cites a study by the University of Washington that says 98,000 Americans will die by the start of December for a total death tally of 730K (the university's death count is currently at 632K Americans). Of course, the number is rounded up to 100K for dramatic effect. The story has legs through Monday. The time period for the potential 100K deaths is 3-1/2 months; let's call it a 100 days to keep the math simple. The Einstein's at the university took the current moving average of deaths, on Worldometer it is 1,075 deaths per day, times 100 days, to yield 100K dead bodies, so the model is clearly based on the pandemic not improving at all through the end of the year. Does anyone think that is going to happen? States such as Missouri, Alabama and Arkansas are improving. The US wave 5 may be peaking now and beginning to form the delta wave inverted V pattern for daily new cases (a good thing). Back in July, the 7-day MA of US deaths was down to 250 deaths per day and unable to move any lower when wave 5 took off. If the US can get back down towards the better moving average over the next month or so, the death count may be a more tame 25K to 50K into December but they are the experts. The university must also surmise that the Fall covid and flu season that is coming fast will add to more new cases and an extension of wave 5 or perhaps a new wave 6 in November and December. About 28% of the country remains unvaccinated and it is at least a 6 week time period before they would be fully protected if they chose to get vaccinated which is already into mid October and Halloween if they run out to get the first shot today. Fauci said days earlier that the pandemic could end and the country return to normalcy in the spring. So he expects bodies to stack up at the end of this year, and to begin the new year, but then everything quickly turns rosy as the crocuses bloom. What is this guy talking about? He likes the camera and simply riffs and pontificates in real-time without consequence. The University of Washington may be correct in their 100K deaths prognostication over the next 100 days but a different perspective, based on the current charts and data behavior hints that wave 5 will roll over in September and perhaps better times are ahead into year end instead of more misery. This scenario would result in about 50K or less deaths by early or mid-December rather than the 100K. The fear-mongering and doom and gloom stories continue because the Whitehouse and CDC sees the vaccination rate creeping ever higher and believe the fear campaign is working. The mandated vaccines by employers, the military and event organizers are likely creating the increasing vaccination rate. Unfortunately, Hurricane Ida will hurt the vaccination efforts for a couple weeks.
Note Added Monday Evening, 8/30/21, at 11 PM EST: Louisiana power outages due to Ida are creating concern for patients on ventilators battling coronavirus. Generator failures are requiring transfers of patients to other facilities. It is going to be a tough couple weeks ahead for Louisiana dealing with COVID-19 and Ida at the same time. Pro-mask and anti-mask Floridians continue demonstrating, arguing, and sometimes hitting, each other over the mask issue in schools. MSNBC television anchor Ari Melber proclaims that the moving averages of hospitals and deaths are increasing the fastest ever. Wrong. The 7-day MA on the CDC hospitalization chart has actually rolled over and is heading lower (the opposite direction of increasing). Don't these people ever look at charts? Or if they do, they do not understand what they are looking at? As Keystone previously explained with actual math for the Texas cases, the hospitalizations were rising at the fastest rate ever, nearly 4 times the prior waves in the Lonestar State, but not on an overall United States basis and not anymore. The rate of US hospitalizations now are comparable to the rate of wave 3 from November 2020 into the January 2021 peak. In addition, the 7-day moving average of hospitalizations in Texas are coming down now not increasing. Look at the charts, dudes and dudettes. It is misinformation, and not reporting up to date information, which should be the actual roll of the media. There is no excuse for reporting incorrect information and data that is several days in the rearview mirror. On deaths, the 7-day MA is at 1,075 deaths per day, the most up to date information available, and is leveling-off the last 4 days. The rate of deaths for the current US wave 4 is less than wave 1 or the big wave 3. When the pandemic began with wave 1, it killed off all the elderly folks. The moving average for deaths was a rocket launch straight vertical as the seniors were dropping like flies. It is safe to say that no additional pandemic waves will ever equal that death rate of wave 1 especially since millions of old folks were killed-off and they are no longer with us to die a second time. People need to use their minds; society is stupid these days. CNN television anchor Don Lemon touts an average of 1,290 recorded deaths per day. Wrong. As mentioned, 1K Americans are dying per day, as per the 7-day MA, not 1.3K per day which is 30% higher. Individual days have popped higher the deadliest day for wave 5 is 1,455 deaths on 8/25/21; last Wednesday. Maybe they are conflating individual daily data with moving averages? Who knows? In fairness, the writers developing the teleprompter scripts and people providing information are likely not qualified as data analysts or chart technicians. Words matter when talking data and charts. The words average, peak, top, bottom, record, rate, total, and others must be used responsibility since the meaning of any statement can change substantively with just one word and a sentence that may have been correct stated one way immediately turns into misinformation once an embellishment is added. Comically, Lemon pounds his fist on the CNN podium proclaiming, "The truth matters." It sure does, buddy. Quit providing COVID-19 misinformation.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 8/31/21, at 4:00 AM EST: The US reports 119.6K daily new cases the third day in a row of lower cases off the big peak for wave 5 on Friday at 192K daily cases. At least it is hoped that Friday remains the apex of wave 5 and the delta wave inverted V pattern can now form. The moving averages for US daily cases continue higher. The 3-day MA is coming down and it would be nice to see a lower low over the next day or two which would break the upside trend for the current fifth wave. 569 Americans die yesterday. Missouri, Alabama and Arkansas are looking good with daily new cases so the hospitals should begin noticing that caseloads are leveling-off and then they will begin dropping very fast. It is a shame that Hurricane Ida hits because that will likely create a mini-bump in cases. Case-wise, Louisiana is hanging in there with lower numbers after the peak on 8/13/21, but the are ground zero for Ida. Last Tuesday, 8/24/21, was the deadliest day ever of the pandemic for Louisiana with 139 souls going to that big ole bayou in the sky. Ohio is concerned about a recent uptick in cases so Kent State and the University of Akron mandate vaccines as well as several Ohio schools. Keep your fingers crossed since the US charts and data are encouraging sniffing out topping behavior for wave 5. There is, however, four key data days ahead, especially Friday.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 8/31/21, at 5:00 AM EST: Russia continues allowing 800 citizens to die day after day for over 6 weeks. Dictator Putin is trimming the herd. Italy and Greece are improving. What is going on in Israel? Daily cases remain at the highest levels ever with 12.1K on Saturday and 11.1K yesterday. How can this be occurring with nearly 80% of the adult population (over 12 years old) fully vaccinated most with the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine? It does not make sense. One-half of Israel's new infections are in vaccinated people. No wonder the CDC and Whitehouse are thinking about offering boosters to anyone 5 months beyond the second shots (instead of 8 months). China Flu continues to attack the elderly and overweight in Israel regardless of vaccination status. Vaccinated COVID-19 patients outnumber unvaccinated patients in many hospitals some facilities are reporting nearly 60% of patients are vaccinated and 40% unvaccinated. That is wild. The efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine appears to drop off quickly after about 5 to 7 months. Perhaps Israel's terrible dilemma has something to do with their genetic traits and the body's chemical makeup due to their ethnicity? Europe beat back the delta waves while Israel struggles. Ditto other nations. The US, the most ethnically-diverse nation on earth, may be peaking now with its delta wave. China is involved with nefarious research that uses viruses to target specific ethnicities. No, it is not science fiction; it is real and occurring now in their bioweapons laboratories. This hints that the China Flu may attack certain nationalities or ethnic makeups in a worse way than others. Unfortunately for the Jewish folks, perhaps they are holding the short straw and their genetic traits are less equipped to fight the Wuhan Virus. It will take many months of research studies once the pandemic subsides to understand the deadly coronavirus in more detail. At least one positive out of the pandemic is that the world has learned that China, the filthy CCP (PRC), can never be trusted or believed.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 8/31/21, at 5:00 AM EST: CNN says 14 portable morgues are sent to Florida. Why? The deaths are way down only 14 Floridians die from COVID-19 on Saturday the latest information. When you hear refrigerated trucks and portable morgues, the memory goes back to the horrors of January and February. In reality, the morgues are at overcapacity requiring the portable units. The morgues need to hire more people to process bodies. There must not be as many 'cutter's' available these days. Thus, unlike the wave 3 horror where refrigerated trucks acted as temporary morgues in hospital parking lots, this is a few refrigerated trucks parked next to the morgues. The bodies have been stacking up there for the last couple months. Hire people to help. At first, the story headline is shocking, but then it is discovered that the problem is the incompetent morgues and corrupt politicians. Poor Uncle Sam has a toe tag on since July and he is still sitting in the freezer at the morgue. The republican media (Fox News, Newsmax, OANN, Breitbart, AM talk radio) ignores coronavirus news over the last couple weeks instead focusing on the Afghanistan debacle and attacking President Biden over the departure and evacuation mess in the war-torn nation.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 8/31/21, at 11:00 AM EST: The COVID-19 news becomes nuttier each day. The democrat media is in a tizzy beating the ivermectin horse a few more times. Someone did a search on Amazon and found ivermectin being sold. Heavens to Betsy! Anyone interested in ivermectin should consult their doctor since there are specific drug grades, doses and protocols to be followed. Doc can tell you if it is right for you, or not. As previously mentioned, ivermectin has been used successfully in South America, Japan and other nations around the world. People did not have access to vaccines in many poor countries; they did not sit around waiting to get sick and die. They used cheap alternatives to give themselves a chance. You do what you can do. Ivermectin has some merit and the ongoing drug trials will determine its usefulness. The democrat media, Whitehouse and CDC are in a tizzy because any treatment or therapy that is not a vaccine is deemed unworthy of consideration. This is a grave disservice to the American public. Monoclonal antibody treatments were slapped around like a piñata for many months but have now received the blessing of Lord Fauci himself. When people are educated on alternative treatments and therapies, they may come to the conclusion that a vaccine is the best way to go whereas the constant fear-mongering, confusing information and threats of losing rights if you do not get on your knees and roll up your sleeves, are not helpful. These techniques may win in the short run but likely hurt society as the weeks play out. Edicts without explanations solidifies an unvaccinated person's belief in avoiding the jab. Dear ole Ma, while washing clothes on the back porch of the shanty, would opine that "you catch more bees with honey than you do with vinegar."
Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 8/31/21, at 2:00 PM EST: Two FDA officials, Phil Krause and Marion Gruber, resign. Everyone plays nice but the two are unhappy how the president and Whitehouse were ramrodding booster vaccines. The remaining FDA officials goose-step forward with arms raised holding booster shot syringes. CDC Director Walensky is the COVID-19 Grinch that stole Labor Day instead of Christmas. Walensky advises that unvaccinated people stay home and not travel during the Labor Day weekend. At the same time, Queen Walensky decrees that people fully vaccinated can travel but should wear masks indoors. She says the "vast majority of transmission takes place among unvaccinated people in closed indoor settings." Walensky says US COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations have decreased over the last week. The main point of the comments is 'vaccinated people good, unvaccinated dregs evil'. Many unvaccinated people that did not plan to go anywhere on the holiday weekend will now fill the jalopy up with gasoline to purposely spite the queen. It is time to hit the Holiday Road for a Vacation. Walensky tells the unvaccinated that there will be no fun this weekend. That's funny. The CDC says the hospitalizations for kids are the highest since the wave 3 peak (November-February) and 5 to 10% of the ICU beds are remaining at southern hospitals. This is good news. The ICU bed capacity was jumping sharply higher when 2 weeks ago it was declared that only 5% to 10% of the capacity remains. If it is at this same level now is a good thing. There are anecdotal stories such as one hospital having to pull two patients from the ICU that were doing better to put two sicker patients in their place. If the ICU beds were available at this facility (or more correctly if the staffing was available), the two patients would have been kept in ICU. But overall, the US may be hitting the peak for the delta wave. McDonalds fast-food restaurants plans to close indoor dining at locations around the US due to the Delta variant.
Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 8/31/21, at 4:00 PM EST: South Korea's SK Bioscience teams up with GlaxoSmithKline to test a new vaccine called GBP510 now in the critical phase 3 drug trials. Moderna announces a study that shows their vaccine providing two times more antibodies than the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. Meow. It is their study so 'mine is better than yours, nah-nah-nah-nah-nah'. MRNA stock pops +2%. PFE drops -2%. BNTX drops -5%. Israel is having trouble controlling its current outbreak and the majority of the country is vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine. Moderna smells blood in the water. The efficacy of the Pfizer/BioNTech is dropping off quickly after about 6 months so Moderna releases a study touting that theirs is better. All is fair in business. Moderna wants some of Pfizers pie and they ate a slice today. Legendary rock star guitarist Eric Clapton continues railing against vaccinations because he had bad side effects (hand problems and other ongoing issues) from the AstraZeneca shot. 76-year old Eric releases another anti-covid song called, "This Has Gotta Stop." While most artists kneel before the power brokers and demand vaccinations for their events, Clapton will not play at any event that discriminates against the unvaccinated folks. The unwashed unvaccinated lepers of modern day society have Eric Clapton as a leader. Of course the song has already went viral with over 1.5 million views because its Clapton of course, one of the top five rock guitarists in history.
Note Added Tuesday Evening, 8/31/21, at 10:00 PM EST: The democrat media keeps beating the ivermectin horse relentlessly. The Whitehouse must be applying full pressure to MSNBC, CNN, ABC, CBS, NBC, NPR, PBS, New York Times and the Washington Post to tout the tribal line. The latest is the Chris Hayes anchor on MSNBC, that looks like he just stepped out of a high school drama class, with an eighth grade haircut, declaring ivermectin "snake oil" and "horse paste." Hayes steps on a soap box proclaiming, "It (ivermectin) is not a coronavirus miracle drug." Who said it was. Seriously, dude, tell us who said ivermectin is a miracle drug. Who? There is no one. It is made up news. Ivermectin shows promise as a treatment for COVID-19 as evidenced by the medical establishment's ongoing studies. It is always disappointing and disheartening for the country hearing people talk from positions of ignorance. America used to be a lot smarter decades ago. Remember Hayes's words early next year when ivermectin may be accepted by the medical establishment; make sure to ask him about the horse paste and snake oil. The constant bashing of ivermectin and all other coronavirus therapies and treatments is purposeful by the Whitehouse, CDC and democrat media since they want everyone to shut their mouth and remain focused on getting the vaccine. China and Russia have state-controlled media and the US is no different only there are two state media's in America one for each corrupt political party. When Trump was king, Fox News, Newsmax, OANN, AM talk radio, Breitbart and the New York Post, the republican media, were goose-stepping in unison. Just as the republican media cheered Trump's every word and tweet while the democrat media denigrated all of the orange-headed bloviating carnival clown's ideas, the democrat media now cheers Biden's every word and sleepy speech of unfilled promises while blaming and ridiculing Trump's previous actions for anything that goes wrong. Such is corrupt America in 2021. Each side roots for each other's failure so they are both actually cheering for America's demise. This is how the rigged, crony capitalism system ends toppled by tribal politics, corruption and non-transparency. The allegiance to the corrupt political tribes is more important to people than allegiance to America; that is when it is over. As noted scholar George Carlin would quip, "It's a big club, and you ain't in it."
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 9/1/21, at 2:00 AM EST: September 2021 and the pandemic pain continues. Mexico improves which is great news because the infections moving north from Central America are subsiding and this will ease the strain on Texas, New Mexico, Arizona and southern California. Mexico's daily new cases chart is sporting the coveted inverted (upside-down) V shape pattern, a characteristic of the India B1617 variant (delta) wave but give it a few more days to make sure. Mexico's active cases chart flattens and begins rolling over which proves that Mexico is starting to usher covid out the door. Ukraine better keep its guard up otherwise it will begin a new wave. The UK has been struggling over the last month to beat down a resurgence in daily new cases. The individual daily highs in UK daily new cases occur on 8/19/21 and 8/20/21, then a week later on 8/26/21 and 8/27/21, thus, following the pattern, the data on 9/2/21 and 9/3/21, Thursday and Friday this week, will dictate if the Brit's celebrate on the weekend, or, fall back into covid Hell. Germany is trying to hold back its delta wave. Italy is trying to roll its daily cases chart over to the downside but the cases continue moving sideways as the tourists keep coughing on everyone.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 9/1/21, at 2:30 AM EST: The United States exceeds 40 million total COVID-19 cases now at 40,114,099. 40 million people sickened with covid is 12% of America's 330 million population (40/330). The 12% contributes to developing herd immunity since these folks now have natural antibody protection. Many months ago, the CDC said as many as 100 million Americans may have natural immunity protection (more US citizens have likely been sickened with COVID-19 than anyone realizes many cases are asymptomatic). Inquiring minds want to know how many now? It would be something north of 100 million. About 10 million new cases occur in the US since March, the last half-year, so perhaps 40 to 110 million Americans have been infected with COVID-19 and have some level of natural immunity. This equates to 12% to 33% of the country which is incorporated into the herd immunity calculation. 62% of the US population is vaccinated with at least one dose so they have at least some protection against the virus and many will be fully vaccinated over the next month. Thus, adding the percentages to arrive at the current herd immunity level is 74% to 95% a great range. If you recall, last year well into this year, for many months, Fauci proclaimed that herd immunity is a combination of the vaccines and natural immunities and 70% to 85% will stop the virus in America. This changed when Sleepy Joe Biden announced the push for vaccinations in the springtime decreeing that 70% of Americans need vaccinated to reach herd immunity. Bumbling Biden created confusion with herd immunity and he was immediately called on it. He backpedaled from the statement but it lingers in the background and democrat news outlets, such as CNN, continue showing incorrect graphics that only identify vaccines as the way to herd immunity. No wonder people do not trust what they hear during the political pandemic. Fauci never repeated his original statement about herd immunity after the Biden blunder but that is the correct information. Sure, the Delta variant is more contagious which requires more of the population to be either inoculated or sickened to reach herd immunity but it is likely no more than a few percentage points. The US needs 70% to 85% to reach herd immunity and right now we are at 74% to 95% clearly in the window then some. If the US wave 5 daily cases roll over this week, things are looking good, and the Fall may not be as dire as the gloom and doomer's predict.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 9/1/21, at 3:00 AM EST: All that said, the US reports 156K daily new cases yesterday to end the month of August a bump up in cases but interestingly still below the 159K cases on Saturday. The revisions will likely take it higher. 1,232 Americans die yesterday no doubt some folks perish due to the stress and drama from Hurricane Ida as they fought for their lives, and lost. Pennsylvania reports a few-day pullback in daily new cases like other states but interestingly, the child cases are leaping three times higher than recent weeks. It does not take an Einstein to figure out that it is due to 100's of thousands of kids returning to school in the state. The mask proponents are quick to say the lack of mask mandates has created the problem although it is more likely due to kids being kids and happy to be with each other again and simply spreading virus as kids do. Pennsylvania Governor Wolf steps in to mandate masks in schools K through 12. He opines that he wanted the local school districts and other state officials to handle the mask issues but no one is willing to step into the mask controversy. Over the last couple days, two Pittsburgh area schools have about 200 kids in quarantine after a handful test positive for COVID-19. Both schools did not mandate masks. The mask wars continue as schools and universities begin the new year. Nutty parents battle each other over mouth diapers a piece of cloth that few wear correctly and even fewer wash regularly; a snot rag with two loops attached.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 9/1/21, at 10:00 AM EST: The Bonnaroo music festival planned for this weekend in Tennessee is cancelled due to flooding and rains from Hurricane Ida. The medical authorities are happy since it is one less superspreader event to worry about. The Bonnaroo people did not want another muddy Woodstock-style event on their hands with drunken, drugged-out dehydrated young folks yelling the "Rain Chant." 10 minutes does not go by without the democrat media slamming ivermectin. NBC media posts a story that television and radio personality Joe Rogan, that questions all aspects of the pandemic, has contracted COVID-19 and "took widely discredited horse drug ivermectin." What childishness. What would you think reading that headline? Or the redhead from Drudge, which used to be right-leaning media but is now dedicated to headline fear porn to pull eyeballs into the site increasing ad revenue, that says, "Rogan Infected Taking Horse Meds." As it turns out, Rogan did take ivermectin and has recovered as per a video he released on Instagram. Rogan became sick late Saturday night, tested positive for coronavirus on Sunday morning, and then threw the kitchen sink of drugs at his body including monoclonal antibody treatment (probably the Regeneron IV), ivermectin, Z-Pak (Zithromax; an antibiotic) and prednisone (steroids), and a NAD (coenzyme NAD+; oxidized form of nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide) drip and vitamin drip for three consecutive days (Sunday, Monday, Tuesday), and he says he feels fine today. Rogan cancels a planned event giving himself a few more days of healing and will surely have lots to say when he returns to the microphone. Maybe NBC will modify the story headline to read that Rogan "took widely discredited horse drug ivermectin to recover." Drudge can offer a retraction and rename the article, "Rogan Recovering with Alternate Treatments." Don't hold your breath.
Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 9/1/21: The World Health Organization (WHO) Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, try to fit that on a business card, 'Doctor WHO', warns about a new variant first detected in Colombia dubbed "mu" by the stupid Greek letter naming system. Mu is pronounced by saying the word 'mute' but leaving off the t and e part. The commie-friendly WHO warns that the Mu variant has the potential to evade immunity provided by a previous COVID-19 infection or vaccination. The key word is 'potential'. If this is the case, then it would be a brand new worldwide pandemic beginning. They are the experts. For many weeks, the chronology highlighted the trouble in Colombia and pondered if the Lambda variant was at play since the outbreak was a severe blow to the country. Alas, from the WHO's comments, it was the Mu variant in Colombia and perhaps it is wreaking havoc in Central America especially Guatemala and Costa Rica. Mexico sees the record high in daily new cases on 8/19/21 but conditions are improving for 2 weeks (with daily cases). The Mu variant is identified in 39 countries. Most are actually seeing a reduction in the Mu variant cases except for Colombia and Ecuador. Mu may be meh and nothing to worry about at this time so you can come out from under the bed. The Lambda variant, Peru C37, was supposed to be a big deal and it is barely mentioned anymore. The key variant outbreaks of the COVID-19 pandemic are UK B117 (alpha), South Africa B1351 (beta), Brazil P1 (B11248; gamma) and India B1617 (delta).
Note Added Thursday Morning, 9/2/21, at 6:00 AM EST: The US reports 184.4K daily new cases a disappointing number but not unexpected considering Hurricane Ida, floods, storms and wildfires that exacerbate the spread of coronavirus. If you are worried about getting washed away and drowning you sure as Hell are not worried about covid. The 7-day MA for US daily new cases is at 164K so it was key to see the numbers below 164K instead they blow up through by 20K. The 3-day MA for US daily cases maintains the pattern of higher highs and higher lows so the uptrend in cases continues. The peak in cases is 196.1K on 8/27/21 last Friday. The 184K is within 8% of the peak, as per the Keystone Model, so it pushes out the time required for the US active cases curve to roll over. In other words, the healthcare workers around America, generally, will be busy through the end of the month. If the Thursday and Friday daily cases can remain below 196K, that would provide hope, otherwise the 200K cases, that several pundits, predicted, will occur and forecast more upside ahead. Sadly, 1,480 Americans die yesterday the deadliest day of wave 5 and most deaths since 3/12/21 a half year ago. The rise in cases is due to the combination of the schools and universities reopening, people returning to their jobs, the vaccine efficacies waning and the increased contagiousness of the Delta variant. California daily new cases are 17K and higher the last 2 days which greatly adds to the overall US tally. Oh no. Texas reports over 24K daily new cases a rocket launch higher also adding a chunk to the US tally. Here's the trifecta with Ohio daily new cases spiking above 7.1K the highest since January. What were Ohioans doing a week ago to cause the big spike? A statewide orgy? Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana, Virginia, West Virginia and Maryland remain challenged. Ditto Pennsylvania that is trying to hold the covid wolf at bay. Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Minnesota, Alaska, Hawaii and the Carolina's remain challenged. The southern states are improving with the virus spreading north into the heartland, and also on the East and West Coasts due to holiday vacationers and movement of goods at ports.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 9/2/21, at 7:00 AM EST: Italy may be turning the corner with daily new cases off the peak but there is much work to do to flatten the active cases chart and roll the curve over. Greece is stabilizing. Japan's daily new cases are improving off the peak on 8/22/21 as the Paralympics draw to a close on Sunday. Holy smokes! Stop the presses! Israel's daily new cases rocket launch into the stratosphere to 20.5K daily new cases yesterday, 9/1/21. It is breathtaking. What is going on in Israel?! There data is reported daily so it cannot be a several day tally, however, the Sunday number was down at 1.7K. Thus, taking an average over 2 days would be 11.1K cases ((20.5+1.7)/2) which is more consistent with the prior day's highs at 11K-12K. It appears the big spike higher in cases may be due to a reporting or data entry issues. Nonetheless, Israel remains mired in the covid quagmire of despair. Malaysia and Vietnam are improving with cases decreasing off the tragic highs. The Philippines remains challenged with the jaw-dropping record high 22.2K cases on Monday.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 9/2/21, at 8:00 AM EST: Credit to the CDC for calling more attention to the obesity problem in America. Nearly 80% of the COVID-19 deaths are overweight or obese folks. 25% of all adults do not exercise at all, nothing, nada, zilch, not even 1 minute per week. That is shameful. It is fun, laughs and jokes while scoffing down doughnuts, ice cream and potato chips on the living room sofa, but no one is laughing when you clutch your chest in the kitchen, while reaching for the cheesecake, and find yourself laying flat on the dirty linoleum floor. Inactivity manifests itself over time. Obesity is a silent killer. Heart attacks are occurring with people at younger ages. Ask any cardiologist. Childhood obesity is increasing so the couple decades of government messaging is not working and only making kids fatter. Tell them to go outside and play not to go to the basement and play video games. Do not hide behind a fat-shaming banner. It will not change the fact that you are fat. Get up and walk around the block. Cut the grass. Sweep the porches. Pull some weeds. Chase the kids or grandchildren around the yard for a half hour. Don't die of COVID-19.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 9/2/21, at 10:00 AM EST: A Bangladesh mask study appearing on the Innovations for Poverty Action website will add fuel to the mask debate fire. The study is a Rorschach test that emboldens pro-mask and anti-mask enthusiasts. The study involves 600 villages and 342K people across Bangladesh a poor nation. This equates to an average village size of 570 people. The study shows that cloth masks do not reduce the transmission of virus; in other words, cloth masks do not help. For the people wearing surgical masks, however, an 11% reduction in infections are noted. Thus, the pro-mask folks say here is the unequivocal proof that masks work while anti-masker's will say the study proves that cloth masks are useless and surgical masks only work a little bit. There are a couple of variables in the study that need considered. Observers tried to track people as best they could while blending in but face it, in a village of 600 people everyone is familiar with each other and when a stranger is poking around they know it, thus, if you were supposed to be wearing a mask for the study, you put it on and walk in front of the cameras nonchalantly as if you had it on the whole time. The minute the observer leaves, the mask went back into the pocket. Thus, the cloth mask groups may have not been diligently following instructions and got infected. Same with the surgical masks so the 11% reductions in infections may be a bigger number. The variables in a mask study are too numerous to control. The study does not provide details on the extent that the viral loads were reduced. A previous Denmark study found that wearing masks does not decrease the number of infections compared to not wearing masks. Another study indicates that teachers are not at an increased risk for COVID-19 which should put a lot of minds at ease as the new school year begins. The mask controversy will continue. Perhaps masks slow the spread of the virus but do not stop the spread of the virus.
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 9/2/21: The democrat media grabs onto the Joe Rogan story because they are promoting vaccines and denigrating other treatments as per the Whitehouse. Humorously, a CNN announcer says "He (Rogan) has embarked on.... an unproven treatment." No, he has not. Rogan already finished the bulk of the treatment in 3 days and he said yesterday that he is recovering and feeling okay. He was walking around the back yard in the video message. The US government wants you to shut your mouth and kneel before power to receive your vaccine. Lord Fauci runs to a camera since it has been 10 minutes. Fauci proclaims that the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines will likely end up as 3-shot regimens. Thank you Captain Obvious. The Pfizer shot is already a 3-shot vaccine in Israel for anyone over 50 years old. Fauci talks about people 'receiving an additional dose, or perhaps a final dose, several months after they have received their initial vaccination', as reported by CNBC. Note that he refers to a third shot as an 'additional' dose 'perhaps' a final dose setting the stage to receive an additional dose each year like a flu shot. Note how Fauci says "initial vaccination" which means 2 shots. It sounds better to say the 'vaccine consists of an initial vaccination and then a follow-up a few months later'. That does not sound so bad from a marketing perspective but it really means 'you get jabbed once, then a month later again, there's your initial 2 shots, then you get a third shot a few months after that, and they do not know yet if you will need additional shots perhaps one jab per year'. Yep, that does not sound as calming and reassuring as the first statement even though they are saying the same thing. Fauci says he would prefer that medical officials and pundits not call the shots "boosters" because, comically, 'there may be the need for more boosters'. A few months from now, two Americans bump into each other outside the medical office. "Hey Harry, are you getting your booster-booster?" Harry nods his head sideways. "No, John, I just got my booster, booster, booster." More and more people are probably watching Joe Rogan's recovery to see how that works out. If they get sick, they may say, 'give me the Joe Rogan treatment'. Despite the seriousness of the pandemic and the epic tragedy it is, you have to see humor in it.
Note Added Thursday Evening, 9/2/21, at 7:00 PM EST: The vintage band Doobie Brothers postpones a Pittsburgh concert and elsewhere after one of the touring group tests positive for coronavirus. The NBA (National Basketball Association) is pressuring the unvaccinated players and staff to take the shots. The unvaccinated players must undergo regular testing and eat and travel separately from the rest of the team. Other restrictions are planned until the unvaccinated kneel before their money God's and submit to the mark. Alaska Airlines is requiring regular testing for the unvaccinated employees but is not mandating vaccines like Delta and United. About 25% of the workers across the board are unvaccinated in the airline industry. No doubt companies are getting nervous, like hospitals, about screwing employees with mandatory vaccines since many will quit and take one of the other numerous jobs elsewhere. It will only hurt the airlines worse when the customers are already complaining about service. That is why some companies are stopping short of issuing vaccine mandates. Also is the trust factor. Employee and management relationships can be damaged for many years by edicts. Even when workers submit to the shots, since they are sheep and will say they have no choice, productivity is hurt, sabotage occurs, and company property is damaged. It creates a hostile work environment. When people are screwed, they will screw you back, and some nutcases will screw you 10 times back. Management 401 does not teach you the facts of life. The US vaccination rate is at about 700K to 800K shots per day which should keep the Whitehouse happy. The chart clearly shows the trend flattening. On 6/1/21, 310 million doses are administered. On 7/1/21, it is 334 million doses so 24 million shots in arms occur in June. On 8/1/21, 350 million doses are administered so that is only 16 million shots for July a big drop from June but the Independence Day holiday is in there. On 9/1/21, there are a total of 372 million doses administered so that is 22 million shots in arms in August a big 6 million shot increase compared to July but still below the 24 million pace in June. It is respectable considering that many of the people remaining eligible for shots are likely not interested in getting the vaccine. Perhaps they are busy listening to Joe Rogan so see how his treatment goes?
Note Added Thursday Evening, 9/2/21, at 9:00 PM EST: The University of Washington's gloomy forecast is receiving lots of attention the last few days. For Pennsylvania, the university predicts 13.5K daily new cases in a few weeks time. They are likely taking the data from the southern states and applying it to the northern states as the virus migrates north. Pennsylvania reports a spike higher in cases to 4.6K cases the highest of the current wave 5 and a big disappointment to the Keystone State. The Delta variant is very contagious and getting into all the nooks and crannies of society, especially the schools that are reopening. The University of Washington predicts a tripling of cases in Pennsylvania over the coming weeks but the charts currently hint that topping behavior may appear over the next couple weeks. It comes down to thinking that the delta wave will progress through the northern states about the same as the southern states versus the virus outbreak not as severe for the northern states. Folks in the south ran inside to the air conditioning due to the hot humid weather this summer so experts likely believe, as the weather becomes cooler in the northern states, people will flock inside to the heat where they will cough and breathe on each other.
Note Added Friday Morning, 9/3/21, at 7:00 AM EST: The US reports 177.6K daily new cases. It is an elevated number but not above the prior day's 184.6K or the peak at 196.2K cases last Friday. The number could have been a blow-out tagging 200K cases with lights and sirens, but it did not. The US labor Day holiday is Monday so the daily cases will likely be subdued into Tuesday and Wednesday of next week but first there is a ring of fire to jump through and that is today's data, Friday, typically the highest of the week. The 7-day MA for US daily cases is at 164K so any number for daily cases today that is below 164K would be exalted and cheered throughout the land. If today's daily cases, that will be known early Saturday morning, are between 164K and 196K, the jury remains out for the delta wave and the path lower remains on the table. If the cases are above 197K, above the 200K round number, the US is screwed for another week or two before cases top-out which means the hospitals will remain swamped into early October. If the daily cases move lower from here on out, the healthcare workers across the US will see better caseloads by the end of the month. The southern states are recovering. 1.6K Americans die yesterday many due to the added stress of Hurricane Ida. West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland, Ohio, Indiana and Pennsylvania all report new highs in cases as the virus migrates north and northeast. Texas reports 27K daily new cases another high for the current wave.
Note Added Friday Morning, 9/3/21, at 7:30 AM EST: Yawn. 800 Ruskies die each day from COVID-19, day after day, week after week. Yawn. The UK reports 38,154 daily new cases overtaking the numbers from a week ago. The UK has a big problem but everyone is at the pub toasting a Guinness glad that the virus is behind them. It's not. The UK is in a new wave higher. The UK active cases curve is starting to curl upwards again. If you are a healthcare worker in the United Kingdom, that is getting blitzed at the tavern, put the Guinness down and go home to sleep and get rest because you are about to get busy again. 207 Brit's died on Wednesday the deadliest day since early March. Germany has its hands full fighting a new virus wave on the exponential upside following the same behavior as the delta wave in the US. Guatemala improves but Costa Rica does not. Mexico continues improving with lower daily cases but Canada remains in trouble with total infections exceeding the 1.5 million milestone and deaths totaling 27K.
Note Added Friday Afternoon, 9/3/21: The US monthly jobs report is a disappointing 235K jobs when at least 700K or 800K were expected. The hospitality, hotel and travel industry did not add any jobs. Obviously, people are worried about the Delta variant. Jobs in retail actually decreased. Studies show that the republican states that screwed common people out of the $300 per week supplemental unemployment insurance benefit, to force people to take jobs, did not result in any increase in the workforce. Told you so. In other words, the cruel move to screw common people, by the individuals with large stock portfolios making big money effortlessly due to the Federal Reserve's 12 years of money-printing, did not work. What the cruel move by the republican states did create, however, is disgruntlement and hostility that will further fuel the coming class war in America. General Motors halts production at almost all of its North America assembly plants because of the semiconductor (chip) shortage brought on by the pandemic. COVID-19 has disrupted logistics and supply lines exposing the just-in-time-delivery model as stupid. Companies cut costs by reducing their footprints. Instead of a warehouse full of parts they now rely on the companies shipping parts as needed. This system does not work in a worldwide pandemic. Ford is also shutting down some production lines. Workers will be laid off temporarily.
Note Added Friday Evening, 9/3/21: The CDC endorses using ivermectin for refugees from Latin America, Africa and the Middle East for several years and is doing the same for Afghanistan refugees. Granted, the ivermectin is targeting parasitic and worm infections in humans but the government knows it is getting a twofer since ivermectin is likely helping reduce the severity of coronavirus. Despite the democrat media, CNN and MSNBC the main culprits, scaring the public about ivermectin calling it horse paste and other derogatory names, the CDC obviously considers it an extremely safe drug. The CDC has not approved ivermectin for use in treating COVID-19 although there is ample evidence from around the world that it works and there are drug trials ongoing. Perhaps CNN and MSNBC can finally shut their pie-holes with the ivermectin misinformation? Probably not. The Whitehouse continues receiving criticism over setting the 9/20/21 date to begin booster shots. The medical folks want more time to assess the need for boosters, especially the Moderna vaccine since more data was just submitted today, but the president set a date certain in 2 weeks. Some Americans ran out to get a third shot when Biden prematurely announced boosters. There are some jackasses that have taken 4 shots. That is stupid but it illustrates the broad range of human opinions concerning the ongoing pandemic. Some folks throw caution to the wind choosing not to be vaccinated while others spend their entire day hiding under the bed only coming out to receive more vaccination shots. The FDA will meet 9/17/21 to discuss boosters and by the date you already know what is going to happen. The FDA will likely approve booster shots for Americans, say over 60 years old and probably only for the Pfizer vaccine, on 9/17/21 or 9/18/21. The CDC advisory board then reviews the FDA's decision on 9/18/21 and 9/19/21 and voila, on 9/20/21 booster shots will be approved as per King Biden's original decree. The approval for Moderna vaccine boosters will likely quickly follow thereafter.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 9/4/21, at 4:00 AM EST: The US reports 182.6K daily new cases. Excellent news. The cases remain elevated but it is not a big blow-out to 200K and higher as feared. The Friday numbers are usually the highest of the week. The prior Friday, 8/27/21, is the peak high at 196.2K cases. The Friday before that, 8/20/21, is 183K cases and 8/13/21 is 163K daily new cases. Thus, the last 4 Friday's are 163K to 183K to 196K and yesterday, down to 183K. The US may be forming the characteristic delta wave inverted (upside-down) V pattern for the daily new cases. The medical talking heads expect bigger numbers for the northern states going into and through the Fall but the jury is out with that prognostication. If the US wave 5 dies over the next month (daily cases), America may actually be in good shape as October moves along and Thanksgiving approaches. The worry is that Americans in the northern states will flock inside once the cold weather arrives and that will create big numbers. The schools and universities reopening are likely causing a lot of the current cases so perhaps much of that is playing out. The 3-day MA jagged trend line for US daily new cases is coming up and may print a lower high which would be great news and indicate that the uptrend of wave 5 is likely broken. 1.5K Americans die yesterday. What a shame. The incompetent government is not educating people enough on monoclonal antibody treatments or providing access to the treatments. After the patient becomes severely ill it is too late. Perhaps the government is okay with that since they will parade around the dead bodies and further scold anyone that does not kneel before power to take the multiple-shot vaccines. It is key to watch the mid-Atlantic states in the week ahead such as West Virginia, Ohio and Pennsylvania to gauge how the virus may impact the northern states. Pennsylvania is a highly-vaccinated state so it would be wonderful to see the daily cases drop off and begin forming the coveted inverted V shape. This behavior would hint that the autumn will not be as dire as advertised. AMERICA IS ABOUT TO CROSS THE 665K DEATHS GRIM MILESTONE.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 9/4/21, at 5:00 AM EST: Bad news for the United Kingdom. While everyone is at the tavern celebrating the end of the delta wave, their bloodshot eyes do not see the new wave well underway. The UK reports 42.1K daily new cases yesterday the highest since 7/21/21. Where's Prime Minister Johnson? Boris? Bueller? Is he sleeping? The 3-day MA for UK daily cases prints a higher high. Wake up Brit's! You have virus problems. The UK crosses the 6.9 million total cases threshold and 133K total deaths grim milestone.
Note Added Saturday Afternoon, 9/4/21: It is college football season (American football), and the stadiums are packed to the rafters without a mask in sight. Several of these stadiums hold 80K people. Even though people are vaccinated and getting tested regularly, there will likely be a bump higher in daily cases in a week but the large football crowds should not lead to a dire outcome. Several concerts this summer show minor bumps in daily cases for a few days about a week after the event but everything has been manageable even the breakout after the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 9/5/21, at 2:00 AM EST: The US reports 59K daily new cases for Saturday a nice low number. Sunday (today) should be lower. Labor Day Monday should be subdued numbers. Tuesday and Wednesday will have to be watched closely but if the daily cases remain lower off the peak highs, America may be in a lot better shape with the delta wave than anyone realizes. The 3-day MA of US daily new cases is coming down and a whisker away from printing a lower low. This is needed to prove that the wave 5 uptrend is broken. On Friday, the 3-day MA is 140.6K cases and as of Saturday it is 141.9K cases. If the 3-day MA can print below 140.6K tomorrow, that will be cause for celebration. The 7-day MA trend line has rolled over to the downside a positive development hinting that the top is in for wave 5. The proof will come on Friday, 9/10/21, a few days away since Friday's are typically the highest cases for the week. 576 Americans die yesterday many because the corrupt US media will not educate people on monoclonal antibodies and other treatments. It is sickening but it is America in 2021. Let them die; then shake a finger at the rigid corpse telling the lifeless stiff that he should have gotten vaccinated and he would not have died. Meanwhile, in the supply cabinet behind the nurse's station, a large inventory of Regeneron, ivermectin and other treatments, therapies and medicines remain unused. The 7-day MA trend line for deaths is at 1.2K per day. Pennsylvania reports 4.8K daily new cases a new high for the current wave 5 squeezing out the 4.6K cases high 2 days ago (a higher high but incremental). The mid-Atlantic states remain challenged with elevated cases continuing. Hawaii warns that the hospital system is at capacity. Hawaii daily cases peak on 8/29/21 so it is not surprising to see hospitalizations bumping higher for another couple weeks on the islands. Hawaiian healthcare workers need to hang in there for another 2 weeks when an improvement in caseloads should be realized. Alaska remains challenged with cases at elevated levels. Ditto Idaho. Nevada cannot get a handle on their daily cases that continue inching higher. People want to party in Vegas coronavirus be damned. Washington state remains a hot mess. Texas crosses the 3.7 million total cases milestone. The new Mu variant is detected in all US states except 2 but remains extremely rare.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 9/5/21, at 2:30 AM EST: The WHO says daily cases worldwide have flattened. Wrong again. As pointed out in the chronology for the last couple weeks, worldwide daily cases peaked on 8/19/21, and are heading lower ever since. Welcome to real-time information WHO. Aren't these jackasses supposed to be leading not figuring things out in a 2-week lag time? Get out of bed with the CCP and PRC and do your job. Modern-day mediocrity is worldwide. Ukraine has got problems again with daily cases at 2.7K yesterday the highest of the new wave now underway. Russia's infections must be spreading west as the two nations battle. Belarus, north of Ukraine and west of Russia, reports daily cases at the highest ever for the pandemic. Romania also begins a new wave of misery. Ditto Moldova. Thus, a growing hotspot is the buffer nations between the East and the West ideologies in eastern Europe and western Asia. Mongolia has catapulted into a parabolic wave higher in daily cases over the last couple weeks. Mongolia is north of China and rich in the rare earth elements needed to make computers and smartphones. Chinese folks may become infected via the Mongolian border. New Zealand reports 20 new cases and a death which is big news for a country trying to follow a zero-covid strategy.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 9/5/21, at 6:00 AM EST: There are many anecdotal stories of pharmacies refusing to fill prescriptions for ivermectin. Pharmacies have the right to refuse to fill prescriptions. Is the US government buying it off the shelves to provide for the migrants and refugees? Or is it simply a power and control play where you must shut your mouth, kneel and receive the multiple mRNA shots and denigrate any mention of a COVID-19 treatment or therapy? If you are unvaccinated, you must be disgraced, disciplined, ridiculed, shamed and shunned like the lepers of ancient days. CDC Director Walensky bars the unvaccinated from traveling this holiday weekend (although her words fall on deaf ears). NFL (National Football League; American football) star quarterback Tom Brady says he and his parents contracted COVID-19 in the days after the Superbowl win in February from the numerous parties.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 9/5/21, at 11:00 AM EST: Lord Fauci appears on television on the Sunday morning political talk shows. He is always first in line at the free buffet. Fauci proclaims that the Moderna vaccine will likely not receive booster shot approval by 9/20/21 which is Biden's date to begin boosters. Everyone is in charge and no one is in charge. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine will likely receive the booster shot approval, perhaps just for older folks, before 9/20/21. That way, Biden can save a little face for jumping ahead of the so-called science by announcing booster shots to begin on 9/20/21 without regard for the FDA and CDC approval processes. Television talking heads and commentators continue mispronouncing BioNTech. When people see 'bio' they immediately pronounce it like biotechnology. Wrong. Instead, think of the word 'beyond' or the famous singer 'Beyonce'. Just think 'beyond-tech' and that will give you the correct pronunciation for BioNTech only try to eliminate the d sound and you have 'beyon-tech'. The Mu variant is another comical one that the so-called professionals mispronounce. In fairness, they are not mathematicians that have used the mu symbol for decades in calculations. Fox News host Chris Wallace calls it the "moo" variant as well as others. All wrong. Think of the word 'mute' only do not pronounce the 'te'. Also, it sounds like 'mew' if that is easier for you to follow. The jackasses at the WHO decided to use the Greek numbering system for variant names to make the pandemic even more confusing. The television pundits are worried about the silly new cow virus called the Moo variant. The pandemic becomes more ridiculous each day as American mediocrity is deeply engrained into society.
Note Added Sunday Afternoon, 9/5/21: Boxer Oscar De La Hoya is hospitalized with COVID-19 and has to bow out of a scheduled fight on 9/11/21. It is another high-profile breakthrough case. From his hospital bed, the 48-year old boxer says, "This (COVID-19) really, really kicked my *ss. I feel bad, bad, bad, bad, I have covid, my chest doesn't--I can't breathe well." The Golden Boy does not mention which vaccine he took.
Note Added Sunday Afternoon, 9/5/21: The Whitehouse proclaims that no one will get a booster shot until the FDA and CDC approve the third shots. Too late. Whitehouse staff continues to mop-up the Biden mess prematurely announcing booster shots to begin on 9/20/21 not following the science. When Biden said boosters would begin on 9/20/21, some Americans ran out to get the booster shot already. That is what happens when politicians do jackass stuff trying to make themselves look good. Some idiots have gotten 4 shots and no one recommends that although Israel is first to fire the fourth shot across the bow. Israel says another booster, a fourth shot, may be required in the future. This is the first time a fourth shot is mentioned. The mRNA vaccines are going from a 2-shot regimen, to 3-shots and then perhaps 4-shots in 2022.
Note Added Monday Morning, 9/6/21, at 3:00 AM EST: The US reports only 35.6K daily new cases yesterday but it is the Sunday number. Today is Labor Day in the States so folks will enjoy parties and barbecues. Hallelujah as Leonard sings. The 3-day MA for US daily cases drops significantly printing a lower low which breaks the upside trend of wave 5. The 7-day MA for daily cases is also dropping nicely. Today should be subdued cases due to the holiday but the rubber will meet the road with the Tuesday through Friday data. If that goes well, the US wave 5 for daily new cases will roll over and die. Hospitalizations lag by a couple weeks but there is good news there as well. The CDC COVID Data Tracker shows hospital admissions rolling over but there is a catch. On the age group chart, the admissions are decreasing for the 40 year old's and older folks. The young people between 18 and 39 years old, however, are doing too much partying with hospital admissions remaining steady (not worsening but not improving either). The hospital admissions are rising for children and teens from infancy to 17 years old. Obviously, it is back-to-school infections. You do not need to be an Einstein to figure that out. And the majority of young folks in that 18 to 39 year old age group are the parents of the kids. They are trying to return to work as they place their children physically back in school or send teens off to university. The vaccinated parents can be virus carriers infecting their own kids while unvaccinated folks are blamed for the delta wave. The mask controversies in schools continues but when you get down to it, kids are kids, and mask mandates or not, they are going to have their mask sideways on their head half the time as they wrestle and have fun with one another. Kids are kids. The US hospitalizations are trying to flatten and roll over now at about 90K coronavirus patients. The admissions rolling over for many age groups will help decrease hospitalizations in a few days, however, the admissions of young people and children remain a concern. A possible outcome is that most of the infections that have occurred over the last 3 weeks is due to the schools reopening, and kids making parents sick and visa versa, may have run its course. Decades ago, schools would always begin after Labor Day but not anymore. Virtually all schools and universities begin the new year a week or two before Labor Day nowadays. America is at 666K total deaths from China Flu the infamous and biblical '666'.
Note Added Monday Morning, 9/6/21, at 4:00 AM EST: The world continues improving the daily cases chart is rolling over nicely to the downside. Hopefully, the variants will remain subdued and there are no more surprises ahead. The world needs to heal after 20 months of misery. Worldwide deaths are also decreasing with the 7-day MA rolling over to the downside more good news. Israel's daily new cases are dropping way off the huge record spike from last Wednesday, 9/1/21. The Jewish folks are singing Shalom Chaverim hoping for more improvements. Denmark announces plans to lift all COVID-19 restrictions proclaiming that the pandemic is under control. 76% of Denmark is vaccinated as Our World In Data illustrates. 80% of citizens over 18 years old are vaccinated. Denmark was the site of the first serious mutation dubbed "Cluster 5" that the WHO idiots never gave a Greek letter name. The mutation forced the culling of millions of mink in spring 2020. It is great to hear the positive news from Denmark that draws a line in the sand for other countries to monitor. Denmark decrees that a 76% vaccination threshold (73% are fully vaccinated and 3% partially vaccinated) allows a nation to lift all coronavirus restrictions. Keep in mind that Denmark currently leads the world in the pace of vaccinations along with Portugal, Spain, Belgium, Ireland, UK, France, Italy, Netherlands and other European nations. Portugal, Italy, Spain and Greece want healthy citizens since these nations rely on tourism. European leadership was in disarray last year concerning vaccines but after that rough start, the blame mainly placed at the feet, er high-heeled shoes, of Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, Europe is now kicking butt and taking names. The European nations are leading the world in getting shots in arms.
Note Added Monday Morning, 9/6/21, at 5:00 AM EST: The media is touting the CDC statistic that 99.99% of the vaccinated people do not become seriously ill or die. This is the big selling point of the vaccinations; preventing serious illness and death. However, that does mean that 0.01% of vaccinated Americans are getting deathly sick with some killing over. No vaccine is perfect. It is always a statistical risk calculation. There are 207 million Americans that are vaccinated with at least one shot so 20,700 vaccinated people will become deathly ill and some will die (207,000,000x0.0001). Thus, about 400 vaccinated people, in any given US state over the last few months, have gotten seriously ill with some dying (20,700/50). Taking the math further, about 50 vaccinated people per state per month become seriously ill or die from covid (414/8 months) despite rolling up their sleeves. There are Winners and Losers every day in the big city. Keep in mind that the bad numbers are very small, unless it happens to you.
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